TVIX Flash Spike Up? ~400% Possibility?In relation to my prediction for a -13%+ crash on Monday, October 15th, I think that TVIX will have a mega spike up to ~400% gain in one day. We'll see what happens.
Marketcrash
SPY -13% Flash Crash Monday - Oct.15I believe on Friday, Oct.12, we had a bull trap. There is still more room to drop on Monday, Oct. 15th, 2018.We should expect at least a -13% drop.
S&P500... !!! This is my view on the SPX500
I believe there will be a last effort to drive prices higher; one to two more extensions which target the 127% Fib extension and the 168% Fib extension of the last bullish range.
I also see the start of a strong divergence in the RSI(14) and there could be a third maximum peek to complete the Fib extensions mentioned before.
Trying not to get too much into fundamentals, technically this is an interesting buying opportunity for there is still a strong support area being respected.
Illustrated are the 3 options/outcomes I think are likely to occur.
Don't sell your beds... yet...
Best of luck!
Stalking for a crash. Good traders stalk 90% of the time and trade only 10% of time. Quote me. :) :)
In this screencast I run through several superhot equities on the monthly time frame.
The higher time frames are often the cause of surprises for people' on 15min - 1H time frames.
Then the end of the screencast I look at the VIX on the 2 hour time frame for signs of nervousness.
I suspect - not predict that something big is coming.
Part 10 - Risk-off August - SPXUSD 4HSNP500 – Resistance & Support:
Resistance: 2835.00 / 2875.00 / 2920.00
Support: 2785.00 / 2700.00 / 2600.00 / / 2500.00 / 2475.00
SNP500 – Summary:
Expected to complete Intermediate B (red) correction at or around the 2835.00 Levels.
Impulsive Bearish Wave expected to start at or around the 2835.00 Levels.
If an overshoot and a Bullish Swing would occur, then a strong resistance could reflect the 2875.00 Levels.
In case of an imminent spike in volatility and a massive sell-off to occur, then SNP500 could pose sharp losses even until the 2500.00 levels.
GER30 (DAX / GRXEUR) - I called all the tops and all the bottomsAllow me to properly introduce myself!
My name is Richard and I am self taught trader, heading for the top.
I have been working hard to predict big swings on GER30 ( DAX / GRXEUR).
This article is just an example on what I'm capable of.
My analysis is spot on most of the times. I get off track sometimes but I always manage to grab the Market's pulse when a shift occurs.
Here's some of my previous work on this Index:
(just hit the PLAY button and see how my views unfolded)
May 12 2017: I called the 1000 points drop on DAX.
GER30-DAX - SELL Set-Ups - Stock Exchange Crash
July 26 2017: I called the 1700 points rise on DAX.
DAX30 – Stock Exchange Crash – Full Cycle
October 18 2017: I called the start of the BIG Market Contraction on DAX.
GER30 (DAX) - Full Elliott Wave Cycle & Wave Count
January 9 2018: I called the 1700 points drop on DAX.
(see previous updates & screen-shots)
snapshot:
March 2 2018: I called the 1350 points rise on DAX.
DAX - False Break-Out - Bullish Correction before Deep Bear Claw
June 12 2018: I called the 950 points drop on DAX.
DAX30 - Quarterly Report
August 6 2018: I called the big drop which started and is still developing.
Part 13 - Risk-off August - DAX30 Daily
The Bearish Corrective Cycle has not finished yet, more down-side to come.
Cycle Wave V (green) will follow and the bull Market will resume for the last time.
After the Super-Cycle (black) sequence will finish, so will the Grand Super-Cycle reach its top.
Market Crash will be epic.
You don't know me yet, but I will be a legend!
If you hit the like button, thank you!
Many pips ahead!
Part 2 - Risk-off August - VIX 2HZooming into the 2H chart, the February 2018 VIX spike has been labeled as the 1st leg of an Intermediate Degree bullish ABC formation.
Intermediate (A) (orange) presents a three swings sequence with its Minor ABC (red) sub-waves, in which Minor C (red) is unfolding with an impulsive swing.
Moving into Intermediate (B) (orange) and the corrective patterns, the entire structure has been labeled as a Zig-Zag, with a Leading Diagonal in Minor A (green), an Expanded Flat in Minor B (green) and an Impulse sequence in Minor C (green).
The Correction in Intermediate (B) (orange) seems to have ended, and if this scenario would be correct, then VIX could commence a larger degree rise in an Impulsive sequence.
The rise labeled as Minor 1 (red) exceeded the previous lower-high and this could indicate that an Impulsive sequence could be a possibility. Minor 2 (red) unfolded with a simple ABC (turquoise) correction, showing an Ending Diagonal in its last leg.
Should the VIX be destined to spike once more, it could affect the markets more than the previous one did, as Intermediate (C) (orange) could present an Extension in its Impulse.
Such imminent scenario would be invalidated or delayed only by a decrease below the 11.50 levels, as a wave two cannot surpass the start of a wave one.
Looking back on the previous volatility spike and towards the way this affected the markets, it can be noticed that, during those volatile events, the reactions were divided.
The USD remained stable towards strong, but the YEN was treated by investors as the true safe-haven asset. Metals and EUR lost considerable ground, while global Indices have shown historical one-week drops.
By looking into each market, one would notice some possible patterns and correlations with the February 2018 bears return.
Is Market Crash Possible? - Repeat of 2018?This is a quick chart looking at stock markets. We will do a more detailed version soon, but this will do for now. If you have any questions, comment below. Chart is self explanatory, bearish pattern with possibility of breakout upwards from resistance levels.
Invest wisely.
Live trading 3. Everything will be fire.Well I support I have to change my avatar to a grim ripper...
Everything it about to dump... And my little dollars are going to skyrocket.
Not that much trading opportunities yet, but when these weekly MA's get tested as resistance plenty of short opportunities.
Right now the Yen is going up up up so I will probably short it if it keeps going (long USDJPY).
Ye hopefully those that didn't already go test these weekly moving averages and I can open shorts there. Day + swing trades.
Ah and probbaly I'll keep plenty of shorts open as hedges so I can long on the way down when it gets too oversold.
This is just ridiculous.... Everything jumping off windows to get down faster, all except OIL AND USDOLLAR.
Fear fear fear.
If Trump decides to bring democracy to the middle east pour your lifesavings into Dollar and Oil. Borrow on margin.
Oil and dollar will skip the moon and go straight to the sun. The light will shine so bright, and everything opposing these 2 will burn.
Oh also as foreign (to the US) investors pull their money out, they will put it in local economies, German stocks/index is a good one.
German has lowest spread for me so... But ye UK FR going to the moon. I shorted it maybe I should long once it retest ath. Almost there.
US economy = recession.
EUR economy = boom.
Thank you MR Donald Trump for getting america out of "bad deals" and "not favoring foreign countries like my predecessors".
You're going to join Warren G. Harding at the top mate. "I have one of the highest IQ's". ^^
*** I am not a financial advisor :p ***
In Soviet Russia, target retraces to bitcoin! Market crash incBitcoin is going to go up and then dip.
It will dip very low. Like 5000 dollars low. However it will take some time. Let's say, in a few weeks. Before that, it will try to break the symmetrical flag started with 2017-2018 market crash. Breakout attempts to 10-11k USD is possible.
Going past 10500 USD could generate momentum for alt coins. However it won't change the eventual outcome. Prepare your shorts, get ready to buy the dip. I'll try to accumulate at 5000-6000 USD range.
Remember. You are in an ocean, accompanied by bloodthirsty sharks. Protect your money. Do not accept the hype. Big money is moving in and it will try to suppress BTC as long as possible.
Remember, market is full of shills. Social media is full of fake accounts. They shill any token, any coin for a few bucks. Their paid "signal" groups are full of stupid people who are ready to pump any coin at any time.
Be especially worried if shills like Haejin, Alanmasters start to give bullish BTC signs. Because that's when the next crash happen. That's what happened just before 2017 crash. They speculated that BTC would reach 100.000 USD by the April 2018. And it imploded, like instantly.
Don't join their hype wagon because they are just shills, bag movers, pump&dumpers.
Right on que. Wanna know what happens next?My short on the DOW back in the beginning of February is paying off and you can bet that the market continues lower and lower. I'll get the next leg charted
#selfeducate
Head Shoulder Ratio: Worst-Case Scenario? Let's Hope So (Part 2)So I have been tracking this pretty extensively, just haven't posted my findings (which up to this point have been spot on) until now... Why? Because this is such a far fetched scenario, I feel in the rare event this does happen - if I don't have some kind of proof that I caught it before-hand no one will believe me lol... Now, this is part 2 which is the 30 minute chart, to show the details a bit more... The weekly shows a big nasty bearish engulfing candle, which means these last 2 weeks were simply a giant bear flag... I am expected the next trendline to be tested next, possibly another bear flag, and the testing the trend line at the bottom... Why that specific spot? Well that's where it gets interesting... The peak of the market formed a head and shoulders pattern which was abruptly followed by a very nasty spill... This current bear flag looks to be setting up a very similar head and shoulders as well... So, just playing around, I measured the top HnS from low to high, then did the same with the current pattern (actually the low from March 1st) to get a size ratio... I then took this ratio, measured the 1st fall (to the lowest low, not the 1st low) and applied it to see where it would show another possible fall based on the size of the bigger pattern... Well, to my surprise it landed square on top of the 2015/2016 market correction - which is a very likely support area if it were to fall... Not only that, but it is also right where a major trend line from the bottom of the last bear market in 2009 is sitting at... Is this a coincidence? If so, it's a pretty big one lol... Even with the current low on March 2nd we are still placed right there in the same general support area... I think Monday will see a pop and fade before the reversal and what I expect to be a monster plunge to 22k... So needless to say - I will definitely be purchasing put options into the spike of the right shoulder...
Head Shoulder Ratio: Worst-Case Scenario? Let's Hope So (Part 1)So I have been tracking this pretty extensively, just haven't posted my findings (which up to this point have been spot on) until now... Why? Because this is such a far fetched scenario, I feel in the rare event this does happen - if I don't have some kind of proof that I caught it before-hand no one will believe me lol... Now, this is part 1 which is the weekly chart... The weekly shows a big nasty bearish engulfing candle, which means these last 2 weeks were simply a giant bear flag... I am expected the next trendline to be tested next, possibly another bear flag, and the testing the trend line at the bottom... Why that specific spot? Well that's where it gets interesting... The peak of the market formed a head and shoulders pattern which was abruptly followed by a very nasty spill... This current bear flag looks to be setting up a very similar head and shoulders as well... So, just playing around, I measured the top HnS from low to high, then did the same with the current pattern (actually the low from March 1st) to get a size ratio... I then took this ratio, measured the 1st fall (to the lowest low, not the 1st low) and applied it to see where it would show another possible fall based on the size of the bigger pattern... Well, to my surprise it landed square on top of the 2015/2016 market correction - which is a very likely support area if it were to fall... Not only that, but it is also right where a major trend line from the bottom of the last bear market in 2009 is sitting at... Is this a coincidence? If so, it's a pretty big one lol... Even with the current low on March 2nd we are still placed right there in the same general support area... I think Monday will see a pop and fade before the reversal and what I expect to be a monster plunge to 22k... So needless to say - I will definitely be purchasing put options into the spike of the right shoulder...
Bitcoin USD Buy-in/Re-buy Levels (End of Correctoin + Altcoins)Ok, so Bitcoin is correcting a lot, wait not Bitcoin, the entire cryptocurrency market is on a huge correction (people are selling an the price is going down). Billions of dollars are gone.
Is this good or bad?
What to do next?
When to buy back in?
What about the Altcoins?
Good or bad really depends if you have a plan and your level of understanding of how these markets work. Corrections are good, if you are looking at the long term health of an asset, coin or market. There are many players involved, many people bought Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies without any knowledge of how this market works, the price goes high, everything shoots up, but the time to take out some profits finally comes. The experienced players are hungry they want their gains from the purchase of their coins.
There is also market manipulation, media manipulation and so much more. Our natural behavior as well, panic and other factors. But none of it is a big deal for those that are trading to make money, for us this is just a situation to watch from which we can benefit as well. Look for a re-entry price and how to maximize profits when the correction comes to an end.
So, is this good or bad?
Corrections are good. This type of correction happens after a phenomenal bull run, the Bitcoin price reached all time high, the market grew to new levels, it is safe to say we reached a top, now we want to know where is our bottom, we want to know this market more. So we retrace looking for support, until we find one... we are getting close.
The chart above shows my recommended buy-in (re-entry) levels for Bitcoin. At the same time, this same levels, if they hold, can be considered the end of the correction and activate a buy wave on all altcoins.
So watch for these levels, this might be where the correction comes to a halt. We have already been going down for a while now, so we just need one last push before we find our support.
What to do next?
If you follow my trades, we are taking the hold approach, but why? Because this is the easiest for beginners, not as in a personal way as you might think, but easiest in the sense of following a strategy where you can be sure to win no matter what happens. Knowing that this is a normal correction, you can act on it by making a plan before hand, buy and sell, trade like a boss. Buy and sell can cause mistakes, we like safe bets, that's why we hold.
When to buy back in?
Follow the chart and use my recommended "buy-in zone" square. If the price breaks this level and goes lower, then you buy-in more.
What about the Altcoins?
Our Altcoins are most in the red, just like the entire market. We have a few options here:
1) Sell and buy back lower (this requires keeping track of Bitcoins price and alts price).
2) Sell and remain out, take a loss and wait for new trades (not me).
3) Hold for the correction to be over, maybe reload at the bottom and your money will grow again (reload more while holding the old - I like it).
So it really depends on you.
My relaxation approach calls for a vacation rather than more trades (buying and selling alts), after the correction is over, many new and more opportunities awaits. We are here, and will still be here, to profit from these trades.
Namaste.
Little to no juice left in Dow Jones.I predict that the day Obama leave office is the day Dow Jones will start crashing towards 15,000. This is base on uncertainties surrounding trade issues and we haven't heard any solid plans from Trump on how he is going to offset the tax cuts to the corporations. Many companies are laying of thousands of people including Volkswagon which plans to cut 30,000 jobs in 3 years and HP planing to cut 4,000 employees. There are many other companies that are planning to cut massive jobs. I am short in US stock market.
Amadeo Ratio 4/19/2016Use it with benevolence and love. Use it to pursue peace and serenity. Keep in mind that Doing cannot do much without Non-doing.
S&P 500/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (Short-Term Non-Log View)Watch the lines for a good place to jump in if you are looking to long VIX. This chart helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes.
