NASDAQ 100 WILL BE CRUSH THIS WEEK??????*market is now selling pressure where market can find bottom lets see what suppose to be happened this week
Marketcrash
RUNE/USDT double top playing out The RUNE/USDT has showed a double top pattern on the 4H chart and is likely to play out on the longer time frames.
This follows a likely price drop from 9.29 USDT to 7.38 USDT. A drop in 20%.
This also follows a rejection from the EMA lines and the RSI shows signs of being overbought.
Here has the analysis showed sign of playing out on the daily time frame.
No financial advice.
A Global Serious Recession and Downfall of Stock MarketThroughout the latest 20 years, the difference between US10Y and US02Y bonds is the one legitimate screener on the recessions on the real economy and indicator of bloodbath of the stock markets.
1987, 2000-01, 2008 and latest coronavirus crises are exactly corresponding the bottoms of the chart.
Now, chart sharply falls and I expect an extensive crash on the real economies or in stock market. This might be related with the recession expectations driving from a huge inflationary era that we are about to enter in.
That's why investors should really watch this closely, since the risk is high enough to take into consideration. Again speaking, I would not be surprised if we see a major sell-off in the stock market within 2022.
However, there must be a catalyst in such a scenario, like it happened in mortgage crises or covid-19. It seems like there might be some extreme conflicts between Russia-US-China axis like Putin is going extremely harsh on Ukraine, even speaking or trying to use the nukes. Yet, this is just a highly speculative possibility. The point is there must be a huge political event if we to observe such a sell-off.
Again, investors should watch this closely.
This is not a financial advice.
IS DXY AKA DOLLAR ABOUT TO COLLAPSE?Is history about to repeat itself once again.
The dollar has enjoyed a spat of Bullishness since may last year. It seems to be slowing down at present though.
Running into Monthly fibonacci levels at present the .702 is holding. I'd like to see a close below the .618 next to confirm the move to the downside, targeting D extension @ 84.6
Because the market likes round numbers, I wouldn't be surprised to see a final push up towards the .786 aka 100. Technically price can push as high as 102 and still be printing Lower Highs on the weekly and monthly timeframes. This is bearish price action, given the state of the world economy at present. Especially the USD, I can't see the DXY making an impulsive move upwards. This leads me to believe that the local top for DXY is nearly in and with it a bearish couple of months will follow.
On a macro-economic level, what we could see playing out here is essentially the collapse of the US Dollar. It has maintained dominance and world reserve status due to the petrodollar. As the US pushes for sanctions more countries are moving away from the Dollar. One significant move has been the rise of the Petroyuan. China's response to economic warfare committed by the US. Once this is fully established demand for the Dollar will not only go down, it will collapse. Not to mention the US currently has inflation at around 8% whilst China is sitting pretty at around 0.9%.
There is a clear winner here and it is not the dollar. So either a miracle happens or we are about to witness a new world order. Time will tell, either way what we're witnessing is a massive shift in the global powers. The USA is on its last legs and they seem to be digging an even bigger hole than the one they're already in.
SPY COULD FORM A MACRO WEDGE - INTEREST RATESGet your tin foil hats ready for this one folks. It's a long shot, but just throwing this perspective out there to see how it lands in a few weeks.
SPY loves to form wedges, especially after the breakout of other patterns.
In this case, SPY was forming quite the strong channel since September, until it broke out in January (see chart below)
Now that it has broken out, and volatility is at its highest, one potential outcome is SPY / SPX forming a wedge to calm the storm.
Here is where it gets interesting - charts also love symmetry. The price action on one side of a pattern often times matches the price action on the opposite side as well (time is a factor that affects how this looks on the chart, either squeezing or elongating the trends)
Before SPY dumped in January, it had a stair stepping, wedge-like pattern on it's way up - which took 200 days to reach ATH from $415 (a key level). SEE BELOW
Now here is where the tinfoil hat comes on. So far, SPY has mimicked the double bottom formation first seen on the left side. SEE BELOW
Notice both form a 'W' shape, with the left side having less volatility, and therefore having more time to form price action (30 days)
The right side having more volatility, formed a similar pattern in 10 days. 1/3 of the time
This would make sense if we also look at the volume, which is on average 2.4x higher than last September / October.
Following this same logic, we should reach 415 in approximately 1/3 the time it took for SPY to reach ATH from 415 (200 days mentioned previously.)
That means it would take ROUGHLY 66 days to reach 415 from ATH -- March 11 -- The Friday before the first released rate hike and when the FED will release their interest rate plans. This would put the March 15 - 16 FOMC meeting right at the vertex of this wedge.
The MACD also confirms this in a way. If SPY continues its current MACD trend on the Monthly, it should approach baseline in March, flipping red (Take a look at SPY chart, and what happens when the monthly MACD flips red without a catalyst like the FED meeting.)
It also means we could see a more volatile spike to around 460 in the very short term (first week of February or so) and then a trend down from there.
What are some problems with this perspective? It's based entirely off of connecting dots that may not even be there. Also, with all of the news and volatility happening right now, SPY could do something completely un-organized and un-predictable, but it doesn't hurt to try.
This post was written largely for fun, and I'll keep the analysis in the back of my mind. However, I do not plan on basing any of my strategies or trades on the idea alone.
Let's see how poorly this ages ;)
- Thanks for reading!
Is the Evergrande crisis over?The looming collapse of China Evergrande Group (HKG:3333), the world’s most indebted property developer, has roiled financial markets for months, threatening a contagion with far-reaching implications on China and the wider economy.
In the early months since Evergrande’s financial crisis came to light, Beijing stayed mum on the issue, although the People’s Bank of China pumped billions of yuan in liquidity in what was seen as an attempt to quell liquidity concerns.
Over this time, Evergrande’s stock price slipped 95%, from ~25HKD to ~1.5HKD, where it has stagnated for all of 2022.
Evergrande’s massive debt pileup
Evergrande, once China’s second-largest real estate developer, is drowning in more than $300 billion in debts to suppliers, contractors, creditors and investors. The company’s crisis partly stemmed from the introduction of Beijing’s "three red lines" rule in 2020 that made it harder for developers to seek bank financing to fund their projects.
Another Lehman Brothers moment
The large exposure of Chinese banks like Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank to Evergrande prompted many financial watchers to predict that Evergrande's debt crisis could extend beyond China’s property and financial markets, warning that it could spill over to the global markets similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse that resulted in the 2008 global financial crisis.
These fears intensified as Evergrande missed payments on a number of onshore bonds. The world’s three major credit rating agencies have already declared the developer to be in default after missing on its bond interest payments late last year.
However, some analysts have played down concerns of Evergrande being the next “Lehman moment,” as they expect Beijing’s policymakers to prevent the crisis from being a systemic risk.
Beijing steps in to limit fallout
To minimize the potential impact of Evergrande’s looming collapse, Beijing has stepped up its efforts, but without a state-led bailout in sight. Back in October, the Chinese central bank said the risk of Evergrande’s liabilities spilling over to the country’s financial sector is "controllable,” while confirming reports that relevant government agencies and local governments have been carrying out risk disposal and resolution work to mitigate a potential contagion.
In recent weeks, a number of news outlets reported that some banks in China have lowered mortgage rates, offered subsidies and allowed developers to access their funds on escrow in an attempt to revive the housing market.
Beijing also started urging state-owned developers to acquire some projects of troubled builders to help ease the sector’s liquidity crunch. Fitch Ratings recently said Chinese developers are poised to see more small-scale mergers and acquisitions and the impact on buyers’ leverage are predicted to be small "as they select projects with promising returns."
Light at the end of the tunnel
It may take months or years for the property sector to recover as developers continue to struggle with a cash crunch that prevents them from meeting their debt obligations.
However, with Beijing’s subtle approach in reviving the property market, Evergrande’s recovery may be drawing near. In February, new home prices in 100 cities in China rose for the first time in two months, further recovering from the slump in November when prices contracted for the first time since 2015.
Policy reforms could encourage home-buying this year as the government included the healthy development of the real estate sector in its government work report unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang over the weekend. Li said authorities will seek to promote the commercial housing market and stabilize house prices this year.
Foreign investors that purchase bonds and other securities from Chinese builders should closely monitor developments surrounding Beijing’s policies for the sector.
$ANF Double tops with bearish flag forming ! $ANF Double tops with bearish flag forming !
- Double tops on the weekly
- Perfect entry on the bear flag
Stock Market EffectWeekly Time-frame
Still bearish in weekly Time-frame, we are bouncing in 0.618 and 0.786 fib lines support and resistance. We need to hold the area of support at $37,285 or lest we can expect more to the downside.
Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still Bearish Saucer. If we break the support we can see a drop to $28,667. once the stock market start dropping the Bitcoin can have crash up to 80% which it can reach up to $10k.
1D Time-frame
We are still in the bouncing area we had a long wick yesterday i hope all have taken profit. AO is bearish, Greed and Fear is 21. This is bullish for our trade. As long as we are above the support there is still chance to pump to the upside.
4H Time-frame
We are currently in a retracement again preparing for a massive move to the upside with long wicks to the upside during bearish market is normal if we break the resistance then we can make it as the new support. AO is bullish, don't give up yet. our trend opened lower high and lower low though but still we are in a Bullish Awesome Oscillator. A mirror from the previous trade which would most likely to happen ride the uptrend.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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GOLD - To the Moon?-With Russian banks getting banned and sanctioned everywhere, what will happen to the market? Well if you freeze a country's dollar reserves, you decrease the liquidity within the market. With the decreased liquidity central banks such as FED would normally have to print more money or open more Swap Lines for other banks so that these banks have money to lend. This whole swift ban and sanctions on Russia have such a dramatic effect on the economy which we can't even imagine how will come out in the end. Definitely has a bearish effect tho!
-Another issue is the rising Gas prices. Well, why do they rise tho? Maybe because Russia is a major supplier of Gas internationally? That might be the issue, right? Of course, it is! One thing that Putin has, and that's his Ego. With so many sanctions applied to him from his western friends, he definitely plans about a pay-back in terms of Gas. Germany is a major economy in the European Union and Germany greatly depends on Russia for Gas. Guess what happens in inflation goes up in Germany due to rising oil prices? Union goes down as a whole.
-Third and last issue is the March Fed interest rate hike. Initially, it was clear that Powell wants to start easy with some small rise, but what about now? With the whole war and its effects on additional inflation, will we have a bigger rise? Or will FED ignore inflation for a while and save the market from a crash by easing the economy for a little more? Well, that's the question that keeps the market away from the crash, for now, it all depends on FED. Honestly, in this hell, we see no light, super bearish. But who are we when there is FED and their decision in March? Let's see how it goes!
$NQ Top is In on the 1M - $9007$NQ top is clearly in on the 1M chart. Bearish engulfing candle with key resistances needing to be retested. The global economic picture is becoming more gloomy as the US defaults on its debt for the first time ever this winter (2021).
As an investor and avid study of the markets, I look for value buys with high probabilities of long term triple digit returns. I will look to back the truck up in $NQ at $9007, until then every bounce is just a distraction.
- PennyBags
CME_MINI:NQ1!
Will def get a lot of hate from Elon for this chart. Sry broCurrently at the channel midpoint. would be reasonable to assume the midpoint breaks and we test he bottom or do something similar to march 2020.
target on downside would be 510.
The Great Economic/Financial CollapseFor over a year i have been posting charts on why i think the stock market is going to crash over 80%. I've posted charts for a while talking about how the stock market will top out at 36k and well, so far it looks like im right. we have seen the stock market top out/consolidate around the 36k level.
i think this consolidation should be a warning to all. right now markets are looking extremely bearish and i will show you why.
before i do show you multiple examples on why i think the greatest financial/ economic collapse is right around the corner.
(here are the previous charts i have posted)
this is a chart showing similarity to the Great Depression
this is the second chart. here it shows the steps markets will make and during the crash. (here are the steps with explanation)
phases/key: phase 1: first sell of/ bear trap (this is kind of a trick that tricks investors)
phase 2: media attention/ greed (this is when the media starts talking about all time highs/ how markets are overvalued)
phase 3:delusion/ parabolic move (this is when people start thinking that markets will not crash and they also think this is the start of a new bull market)
phase 4: denial/ start of bull trap( this is when investors are delesonal and think that this is just a small sell off and they think it will continue to go up)
phase 5: return to normal/ end of bull trap (this is when investors think that markets are starting to recover from that "small" sell off)
phase 6: fear (this is when investors see that markets won't go up just yet so they start to pull out sending markets into a small free fall)
phase 7: capitulation/ retest (this is when markets continue to sell off sharply) (expect a 40% retest)
phase 8: despair/retest (this is when markets start to go into another sharp sell off plus 10%+ retests of strong future resistance)
phase 9: return to mean (this is when we will come back up to the mean level of the market)
phase 10: leg down (this is another sharp sell off/ leg down. this is when we will retest lows) (8k should be the low)
phase 11: recovery (this is when we start our recovery phase. markets will take 5 or 10 years to recover from this giant collapse)
on this chart i posted why i thought the stock market was going to crash/patterns. (here are the patterns i listed)
1. bearish divergence
2. market is overvalued
3. price is about to hit the 618 fib level ( 36k )
^^ these are some of the patterns we are still seeing today. we are seeing markets are overvalued + patterns like rising wedges/channels
this is the last chart i posted about the crash.
here i talked about divergence happening in the market and why i think it will crash.
now that i have listed that i will list my other reasons why i think markets will crash.
1. equities vs commodities
marketcap.com.au
as you can see on this chart, we are reaching dangerous levels. last time we were at these levels we had 2 major crashes.
2. private debt
static.seekingalpha.com
on this chart you can see the amount of private debt is at at(almost) an ATH. this is something you should keep an eye out since last time private debt was this high the 2008 financial crisis took place.
3. S&P vs real earning yield
twitter.com
this is a good one! as you can see on this chart we have seen that every time we go into negative territory a market crash occurs. right now it is the lowest it has ever been which should be something you need to look at.
4. US profit margin vs linear trend and deviation from linear trend in %
miro.medium.com
on this chart you can see that the % on this chart is again at a new ATH. this is not good since every time we get a huge spike in it we end up getting a recession (show on chart)
5. buffet indicator
miro.medium.com
ATH on this chart too. (note: this is a more controversial indicator)
6. Shiller P.E ratio
miro.medium.com
on this chart you can see that we are reaching dangerous zones. last time we were up in this zone the .com bubble happened.
7. S&P mean regression
miro.medium.com
on this chart we are starting to form a new ATH. last time we were in this zone the .com bubble happened.
final:
now that i have shown multiple reasons why the market will crash i will give my final take:
over the past year and so (start of covid) we have seen a lot of people get into stocks/crypto (including gme , bitcoin , and other meme coins) this is usually bearish because we have seen dumb money come in during a lot of historic crashes including: the 2001 .com bubble and the 1987 great depression. i do think that this will be one of the leading causes of the crash behind inflation .
we have seen so much "dumb money" come into markets after covid and i think this will be one of the major reasons we will crash. it seems like everyone is making money without trying.
other reasons for crash:
-covid- covid is still raging in the world. i think we will keep seeing strains that are worse causing economic fear.
-debt- national and private debt is so high eventually the bubble will burst
-dumb money- dumb money has been a problem for over 2 years and i think we will see that crash markets too.
-inflation- inflation is now at 7.5% meaning we could see the inflation bubble pop.
-Russia invades- IMPORTANT- OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WE HAVE SEEN TENSIONS RISE OVER A POSSIBLE INVASION OF UKRAINE BY RUSSIA. TOMORROW BIDEN AND PUTIN WILL HOLD A PHONE CALL MEETING AT 11 AM ET. I THINK THAT THERE WILL BE NO FINAL DECISION MADE AFTER THE PHONE CALL MEANING TENSIONS COULD STILL RISE. I PERSONALLY THINK RUSSIA WILL IN FACT INVADE UKRAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN IT WILL MAKE MARKETS START CRASHING FAST.
the final charts:
here are some charts showing why i think markets will crash:
this is the 10yr yield. as you can see it has been forming a rising channel (bearish pattern) meaning we could see it breaking down, bring markets down with it.
this is the US10Y-US02Y. this is the yield curve. every time it goes below 0 the yield curves. the yield curve is a strong indicator for market crashes since it has predicted all of the last crashes. right now it is dropping fast and i do think it will go negative soon.
this is the US inflation. right now inflation is sitting at 7.50% which is high but i think we will go much higher. we are forming a triangle pattern that i think will break to the upside. i do think inflation will keep on rising since the US keeps printing money. if this does play out we could see 14% inflation or higher.
this is the US money supply. as you can see we have printed over 40% of the total money supply in 2 years! this should be a huge warning on why a big market crash will happen.
this chart shows the volatility in markets. over the past few months we have not seen crazy volatility but its starting to pick up. i do think it will pick up in the upcoming months causing a market crash.
conclusion:
i am sorry that this is a bit long but i do think it is important you read it well since your life could depend on it.
VIX TO THE MOONmarket crash is around the corner. fed rate hikes half a point at a time not even slowly cause they can't, taper almost finished, selling of the balance sheet. Bought a lot 40 calls october expiry when vix was at 20 because when this thing moons i will pocket 1400%. It's not complicated but ppl that buy puts everytime it moons will go broke why? Well vix is making higher highs, and higher lows, trend has changed. you see, S&P is creating a right shoulder as we speak as it couldnt break resistance, when this ungodly drop starts derivative liquidation and margin call will murder everybody well except me.
USA WILL NEVER LET HYPERINFLATION PLAY OUT BECAUSE THAT's LONG TERM DEATH OF OUT CIVILIZATION, INSTEAD THEY WILL SACRIFICE THE MARKETS FOR 20 YEARS SO WE MAY SURVIVE.
#GREATDEPRE$$ION
HOW-TO: Cosmic Cloud #1📡 INDICATOR
Cosmic Cloud
👩🏫 HOW-TO CONTENT
This how-to shows that even price movement during major events like global market crashes adhere to the indicator levels.
✅ POINTS
the price drop starts after reaching a resistance level (top-left chart) or
the price drop is confirmed by a downward breakout from one of the support levels
the 2020 stock market crash (👑) reaches its lows at various Cosmic Cloud supporting levels
🔔 USEFUL ALERTS
Resistance Channel Re-entry ↓
Basis Test ↓↑
Support Channel Entry ↓
S&P 500 - IS THIS A CRASH/ OR HEALTHY CORRECTION TO AVERAGEAbove is a chart of the S&P 500 since 1950 (adjusted in Log). The yellow line represents the mean (average) price. It is well known that price naturally gravitates towards the mean, always!
Notice how the price of the S&P 500 has not had a significant drop below the mean, since the early 1980's. It had a brief stint below trend, during the 2008 financial crisis.
Why has the S&P 500 not had a significant dip below the mean since 1980? Is it a booming economy? Is it an educated and financially literate workforce? I will talk about this in a future post. For now, I just want to pose the question and get the cogs turning. What has caused the high deviation from the mean in the past 30 years, and specifically the past 12?
I want to throw this other statistic out there. Interest rates in the 80's were around 16%. Today? The lowest they have ever been. Less than 1%.
Form your own hypotheses, and please share them. I'd love to hear your thoughts.
MARKET WONT CRASH YET BUT IT'S GETTING READY FOR THE DECLINEGreen Arrows show when price increases beyond midpoint of the band, it started a significant decline in the market. As of today, it hasn't shown that yet
Red Arrows Show that during those times of market "correction(2000,2007,2008,2018,2020) it exceeded the ATR lows to show a warning sign. Market usually corrects after this, institutions take profit on the bounce, and market increases volatility and then sells off.
QQQ Analysis Market Correction Incoming?Hello fellow traders,
Please check out my analysis of QQQ, I go over different possibilities of a market correction; how far down the market can go, and where to look for bounces. I also dive a bit into why we are seeing this type of price action.
Take a listen and let me know what you think
TOP ALERT. Russell 2000Yeah, bruh. That's a top without funny money to help the pump. Watch for a 30% fall from the highs into buy zone #1. This would officially make this a crash but there is nothing saying it will stop there. This is just a technical zone. Follow me on Twitter for more. Or don't. I don't care.
Bitcoin to hit $80,000 May 2022A brief rundown of my thought analysis.
A brief rundown of my thought analysis.
I am working from the run up starting in March 2020. Starting the first touch on the parallel channel on 28th September through to 19th July 2020 (2) and running that channel up to point (1) at around 60k gave me the trend to work with.
Since peaking at 70k we have now dropped to the bottom of that trend line point (4). Which when I zoomed out i seen the wave pattern, it’s not so much a perfect Elliot wave is it. Having said that, wave 2 did not break lower than wave (0) & wave (3) did break higher than wave (1).
At the time of publishing this 8/1/22 - 21:31pm UK time, we are trading around 41k at the bottom of the trend line. Should we break to the upside from here I would expect 5th wave to be confirmed and progress to 80k.
How I achieved 80k, was by taking a fib measure of wave (2) to (3) and transferring over to the bottom of wave (4). At the 100% mark of wave (5) we hit 80k before retracing into a corrective A,B,C pattern. Which I have worked out by testing the 50% mark in wave (A) which will then retest wave (3) before retracing to around 50k. I achieved this by again measuring the down trend with the fib. From the start of the sell off in November 2020 we first tested 50% on the fib then down to 75% to 100% where we are now, on the bottom of the trend line. My A,B,C is not as clean as that but you can see the theory behind it.
Bear market or bounce to 100k…. if the 1,3,5 a,b,c comes to fruition? If the run to 100k fails after the a,b,c my guess based on previous drops after ath’s is that it may flatten out for a while before moving up again.
I also see the H&S forming on the 1 day & 1 week, this level it quite critical to hold and trend up for this bullish scenario to succeed. If we break lower 36k range could be tested.
I am no professional by far, just showing my opinion of what I see. I would be grateful to hear your thoughts on this and/ or your own theory.
Wait till the divergence endsBearish Divergence was building up this week, and today it finally started diverging to the down side.
I would wait till the divergence dies on the daily before going long.
$APPS - Digital Turbine Inc. LONG setup$APPS went through a 50% correction from the last high and even closed the gap from august 31st.
If we see a bounce in the tech market I would think that $APPS might perform very well.
This is NOT a longterm hold and investment at the moment, just a swing trade, so strict profit taking is advised!
Buy In: Now
Stop Loss: we literally pick the bottom here, so the stop has to be the low of the last candle at around 46$
Take profits like you see them in the chart
