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Marketcrash

SPX500 - ED with little throw-over The market has been bunny jumpy and funny over time. If this will confirm and the grand super cycle will end we will see some major correction to the 1800-2200 area. Who will trigger it? Btw retailers have too much fade on the FED, pity. At the time market is very overbought and in the weekly RSI you could see huge divergence on the weekly chart and low volumes but the market keeps going. After all, at least we should correct it very soon and we will see some movement down. If not, then later consequences will be much harder. Feel free to comment Good luck guys and stay positive!
FX:SPX500Short
by GreenBunny
SPX 500 DONE??!As stated before, the recent sell off was nothing but a corrective wave and I was calling for buys when everyone was selling.. I am not saying the market will collapse now but if does then it makes sense and there is enough evidence to support it! On the other hand, more ATH's still makes sense too! It's all about assumptions, biases and having a set up. My current assumptions: 1- EDT and we are finishing the last Wave. Assuming that means that Wave 1 here is the longest and hence Wave 5 must be shorter than Wave 3 so it cannot under any circumstances touch 4,021.4!!! 2- Wave 5 (primary degree) = 1.618 Wave 1 (Primary Degree) Disadvantage: Market can still go higher to 0.618 of Wave 1+3 to 4.1k Invalidation: 4,021.4! Short term: It can react to this major level and retrace to 3,872 so it can be used as scalping :) GOODLUCK!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by GreenCandleTrading-GCT
41
Close Bitcoin Trade (TP SMASHED)Good day guys! I am now closing my bitcoin long positions from 52526.72, 52579.78, 52699.91 & 52762.98 level. We do see this trade going higher, because we noticed PAYPAL just added crypto to the checkout feature on their platform. This is huge! Again, it is always good to book profits and look for the next set up. We believe in actually withdrawing from your accounts not being excited how high price got. This trade did wonders and we know that those who took this signal from us profited tremendously. Be sure to like and comment below on your thoughts and/or if you profited from our analysis. We do appreciate you for checking out our post and remember, we will see you on the other side. Rodrick (CEO) Third Eye Traders
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ThirdEyeTraders
1
It's time to ZOOM OUT and get REALPlease have a look at this chart. Scroll all the way back to 1999. At present day we are very far above the 50d moving average. It's frightening how high we are. Bearish divergence from Jan 2020 to present day. Bearish divergence in 2018, leading to a 20% retracement. Bearish divergence in 2007, leading to the global financial crisis. Bearish divergence in 1999, leading to the tech/telecom bust. History will repeat itself, I think. We are currently in a very worrying position. Look at what these bearish divergences have shown in the past. To return to 50d MA levels would mean a 13% correction for S&P 500. If we fall below that, we should start considering a full blown crash/bear market.
AMEX:SPY
by Huntz
4
"MOMENTARY" Bitcoin DOOMS DAY Scenario - 6 DAY ChartA friend sent me down the road of looking at the spider charts again, and and kind of spotted something on the 6 DAY Broad View, that has nothing to do with the current situation of course; but it is intriguing, as well as frightening perhaps to some who don't protect their assets with Stop Losses... This is somewhat of a "what IF" type of scenario... Against some very real possible realities. On the more grand scale of things with regard to price supports, we really only have a few major supports to catch BTC if a major market crash happened, which many are saying is on the near horizon... - Even looking at the VPVR; the ranges of support diminishes greatly beyond 12k - The few stops along the way that I can spot on this chart are: 50k 42k 19k 12.4k So be ready to by some of that 12k BTC if the markets make a nearly 400% dump. You will have to act fast as the Fire Sale will only last for minutes or hours at best. Haha!! I just had to post this for posterity in case it ever happens, so I can say I told you so. LOL!! Remember, keep your friends close and your stop losses closer!! CryptDude (CryptDollar)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptDude
2
MARKET CRASH - JUNE 2022 ?Hello everyone I was doing a research about market crashes in history (what was the reason, what happened next and how it was solved) ...So I read many titles about financial instruments in US (Loans,credit cards,mortgages etc) ...yeah and those freaking BONDS...we have two types of bonds - short-term and long-term..and here comes the trouble. They should go in the same direction. That means if short-term bonds(STB) rise,then long-term bond yields (LTB) should rise as well...so what is wrong ? Every time in history before a market crash these STB and LTB yiels were going in different directions - STB were rising whereas LTB were falling. We can talk about divergence. Crash Confidence Indicator is in it s highest value since latest market crash in 2007 - that means that many investors believe that market crash is not going to happen... the same scenario was right before 2007 crash Citi group‘s indicator about euphoria or panic in the stock market is in euphoria sector and is steadily rising Another indicator..VIX ..is down 28%...that means that fear has crashed Stocks are expensive relative to 10-year average earnings. We are above number 24 which is much higher than the long-term average of 16. Relative to GDP,the US stock market looks very expensive Now look at the chart below. As you can see there is the VIX indicator, SPX (S&P500 index) and 10-y Bond (blue line). I found interesting correlations between these instruments. As you can see, before every market crash we had scenario when VIX fell and Bonds rised. Afterwards bonds lost their value,VIX skyrocketed and SPX and economy crashed. These days we have a lot of "positive" sentiment in Bonds and we are grateful that VIX is falling...really ? look at the chart...VIX is falling and bonds are rising. From history performance I expect an upcoming market crash in 2022...and in my personal opinion I expect this carsh in the beginning of June. Take it serious, I am not joking and I put a lot of my time into this research. Thank you for your time and good luck !
TVC:VIXShort
by JanKoristka
MARKET CRASH - JUNE 2022 ?Hello everyone I was doing a research about market crashes in history (what was the reason, what happened next and how it was solved) ...So I read many titles about financial instruments in US (Loans,credit cards,mortgages etc) ...yeah and those freaking BONDS...we have two types of bonds - short-term and long-term..and here comes the trouble. They should go in the same direction. That means if short-term bonds(STB) rise,then long-term bond yields (LTB) should rise as well...so what is wrong ? Every time in history before a market crash these STB and LTB yiels were going in different directions - STB were rising whereas LTB were falling. We can talk about divergence. Crash Confidence Indicator is in it s highest value since latest market crash in 2007 - that means that many investors believe that market crash is not going to happen... the same scenario was right before 2007 crash Citi group‘s indicator about euphoria or panic in the stock market is in euphoria sector and is steadily rising Another indicator..VIX ..is down 28%...that means that fear has crashed Stocks are expensive relative to 10-year average earnings. We are above number 24 which is much higher than the long-term average of 16. Relative to GDP,the US stock market looks very expensive Now look at the chart below. As you can see there is the VIX indicator, SPX (S&P500 index) and 10-y Bond (blue line). I found interesting correlations between these instruments. As you can see, before every market crash we had scenario when VIX fell and Bonds rised. Afterwards bonds lost their value,VIX skyrocketed and SPX and economy crashed. These days we have a lot of "positive" sentiment in Bonds and we are grateful that VIX is falling...really ? look at the chart...VIX is falling and bonds are rising. From history performance I expect an upcoming market crash in 2022...and in my personal opinion I expect this carsh in the beginning of June. Take it serious, I am not joking and I put a lot of my time into this research. Thank you for your time and good luck !
TVC:VIXShort
by JanKoristka
9
BTC/USDT 3 Hour Chart Fall ProjectionOk guys I think this is where we finally see our pullback. Notice the artificial pump to diverge from the original fractal . Who knows? Maybe its nothing, but this is what I see and I wanted to share with my followers so they were aware what may occur here. Covered in Bulkowski's Classic Trading Patterns under the trend line chapter he mentions a piercing of a diagonal trend line after 5 touches. The price action then should come up and retest the trend line and get rejected just as it was last year. Only time will tell. If you agree throw me a like and follow me for more unique ideas and concepts that keep you in the gains. Much love
Short
by The_New_Disciple
4
DXY - Strikes Back, The Return of Safe-HavenThe dollar climbed as pressure stayed on bonds, with the yield on the U.S. 10-year government bond hovering at its highest levels in a year after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed little to no concern about the recent spike in yields. The U.S. dollar benefits in a few different ways. Powell’s confidence in the U.S. economy and its ability to weather the increase in rates is good for the U.S. dollar. A higher more attractive yield also draws demand for the greenback and most importantly, the slide in stocks drives investors into the currency’s safety. Stocks crashed in return as well as Bitcoin. If the DXY moved up, I think everything will cool off for a while. Disclaimer: The information presented is NOT financial advice.
TVC:DXY
by Inandouthunter
🩸 🐖 "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"Hi guys after Friday rout there are new developments in stock market indicies. Last week price action on AMEX:DIA formed bearish reversal pattern buying climax above upper megaphone pattern line at the top of rising wedge. This rising wedge is 5th Elliot wave which is signaling trend will reverse soon. As you can notice in chart last week realized volume was relatively big and volume week ago last week was rather small. Thats the signs that bears taking control significantly in recent days. I expecting this week breakdown bellow megaphone upper line and begin forming corrective wave (a). If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
AMEX:DIAShort
by Tomasgei
6
$TQQQ Market Correction DDThe market was extremely bloody last night, where we saw $TQQQ trading at highs of $98.07 at one point and subsequently closing at $87.90. I believe this can be attributed to the rising bond yields trend we are currently witnessing, particularly in the 5 year and 10 year treasury yield. Between the start of February 2021 to February 24th, the 5 year treasury yield has been steadily increasing at an average of 0.01 to 0.03 daily, while the 10 year treasury yield has been increasing at an average of 0.01 to 0.04 daily. However, yesterday on the 25th of February, this skyrocketed. The 5 year treasury yield shot up by 0.19 from 0.62 to 0.82, while the 10 year treasury yield shot up by 0.16 from 1.38 to 1.54. Typically, when the 5 year treasury yield goes beyond the 0.75% threshold and the 10 year treasury yield goes above the 1.50% threshold, the stock market tend to sell off in reaction to that. This huge one-day surge in yield return as a result of a lack of interest in bonds likely exacerbated the sell-off. I believe that this correction is extremely healthy in a market where a lot of the valuations are rather high; and this is unlikely the "huge market crash" or the "bubble pop" premonition that many investors are fearful for, especially considering the fact that a huge $1.9 trillion stimulus will be incoming. However, it will undoubtedly do us good to remain cautious and keep some cash on the side because in the short-term, the hardening of yields will likely lead to some volatility - which means more frequent dips for you to average your positions; but more importantly, eventually, the consequences of printing these money will likely catch up to us in the form of record-level inflation and interest rate rise, possibly killing the bull run - and we need to be prepared for it. For now, I expect growth from the support zone of this bullish channel back to the $100 to $110 range. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by AntrePoint
2
Market Crash, Correction and Reversion to the Mean?The crash is near and I am curious what crypto will do this time. The market behaves in waves and parallel between waves can be used to predict future instances. That doesn't mean it will come true. However, it is necessary to be cautious and balanced between greed and fear. The reason for this massive correction will be - Three O's: 1) Overleveraged 2) Overhyped 3) Overbought In short, it will be a disinflationary bust. Take care!
TVC:SPX
by filagotnochill
1
Monitor Bond Yields - Feels like 1987?Hey there, thanks for reading my idea! This isn't financial advice. Remember to do your own DD. Investing is risky. This is connected to my "Feeling Overextended?" idea which can be found here . An important metric to watch when determining whether a recession is imminent is the inversion of the Treasury bonds yield curve. Most specifically, the 3-month, 2-year and 10-year yields. The inversion occurs when the shorter-term note yields begin to rise and exceed long-term note yields. Ideal bull market conditions would have higher yields in long-term notes and lower yields in short-term notes. Higher long-term yields forecast economic growth where the Government can be expected to be able to pay back the bond. Typically, higher yields are associated with higher interest rates, which poses as an investor risk, hence the higher yield premium. Meanwhile, higher short-term yields forecast economic downturn as investors look for shorter time horizon returns to minimize risk. We have to remember that the Fed is expanding it's balance sheet through QE by buying certain assets such as mortgage-backed securities and TREASURY NOTES from the market, and J. Powell is confidently using his tools to prevent a market crash. By buying Treasury notes, the Fed can manipulate yields to create a positive outlook of the economy through a "positive" yield curve, rather than an inverted yield curve. In fact, the Fed has accumulated approximately $3billion in Treasury notes since the Covid crash. (source here , scroll down to the Fed Balance Sheet graph.) Is it recession time yet according to the yields? Maybe not yet, but once the 3 month and 2 year yields begin to rise, this should place pressure on the 10 year yield to fall., setting the stage for the next downward cycle.
TVC:US10Y
by WhatsAStockMarketLOL
6
Is EUR/GBP indicating the S&P500 Crash ?The last test of the weekly trendline in EUR/GBP was the March 2020 Crash, thats when EUR/GBP spiked up 1200 pips within a few weeks. Now price is moving close to the Trendline again, could this be a indication for the S&P500 Crash, i think so. Those that follow my Charts know that im looking for a Market crash in the next few moths, it seems like This EUR/GBP trendline could be a Indication for it. This correlation can be seen in most EUR pairs, i also posted a important EUR/AUD chart about this a few days ago, all of them give the same indication, they could be Indicating the Market crash from the technical side. This proofed to be working in 2000 / 2008 and March 2020, will it work again? Lets see.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Thomas93
8
When does the market crash, VIX?Everybody would like that know that. Although VIX is in principle a forward looking index it is a poor predictor. VIX volatility has in fact been shown to be highly correlated with backwards looking volatility, not future volatility. So let us take a look at the past then, a full 13 years full of different kinds of crises and crashes. As can be seen from the chart, each significant spike (to the level of 50 or above) has been followed by a lenghty period of cooling off. These periods are characterized by a series of lower highs forming a descending triangle with the support as the foundation. Each descending triangle in the past has been formed on a foundation on a different level. The cooling off period has varied from 1,5 years to 4 years. The level of support of the present triangle is clearly elevated as compared to the earlier ones. Moreover, there has been several lower spikes within the past year. These factors can indicate that the market is still a bit squirrelly, it is keeping itself on its toes, so to say. However, each event so far has resulted in a lower high in VIX, so cooling off is in the process. So what is VIX telling us then. I would say it tries to tell us that these things take time. Although there seems to be all kinds of bubbles, we can easily continue with the present bull market practically the whole year. That is of course if nothing dramatic happens and we continue making lower highs in VIX. Towards the end of the year the probability for the breakout increases and the bubble burst is inevitable. Then there will be ”blood on the streets”. Take care and trade safe Cheers, Whoop
CBOE:VIX
by WhooperSwan
4
How To Play The Markets To The DownsideI’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years. I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails. They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way. The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically. Real money…real trades. How can you make money in a market that is going down? Today I want to show you two strategies on how to do this. Shorting A Stock The first strategy is shorting a stock. So what does this mean and how does it work? Well, it means that you can sell a stock right now even if you don’t own it, and then buy it back later at a cheaper price. This is how it works. So first there is your broker, then there’s you who wants to participate and make money in a falling market. Let’s use Apple AAPL as an example. Let us pretend AAPL is currently trading at $119 & we believe that AAPL actually might go down again to $110. You can make money betting against AAPL in a falling market, and here’s how it works. Now, you want to sell AAPL but you don’t have the shares just yet. So what you would do is you borrow shares from your broker. So your broker is actually lending you 100 shares of Apple, or at least, we’ll use 100 shares for this example. Now, the price at this point doesn’t matter. He’s just giving you the shares and says, “OK, you need to give me back these shares later on.” And he is actually reserving some money from your trading account to make sure that you really give it back to him. Now, you have 100 shares, and you can do with these 100 shares pretty much whatever you want. So in this example, you would sell them. So you sell AAPL , 100 shares of them, at the current price of $119 because you believe that AAPL will go down. So how exactly do you make money? Let’s say after a few days, AAPL , in fact, does drop down to $110. Here’s what happens next. Now you are buying back AAPL at $110. So how much money do you make? If you sold AAPL for $119 and you’re now buying it back at $110, you’re making $9 per share, multiplied by 100 shares. This comes to $900 in profit. Now that you have the shares back, you, of course, have to give them back to the broker. Remember, the broker lent you the shares, so you have to give them back those 100 shares of AAPL , and when you do, the broker releases the money that they held, kind of in escrow, to make sure that you are getting the money back. Now, the beautiful thing is this is all going on in the background. This is what it would look like on a trading platform. So now, I want to trade AAPL , and I want to just sell 100 shares of AAPL . So all I do here is, it says already short minus 100 and I would sell them at the current price of $119.35. So I click review and send. And the broker is requesting almost $6,000 from me. And this $6,000 is basically the money that he’s holding in escrow to say, “All right, Markus, you have to give me back the shares.” And it is that easy. And now if I click on “Send Order,” I would sell the shares. So this is the first way because I told you that I’ll give you two strategies of how to benefit from a falling market. So this was strategy number one, shorting a stock. Buying A Put Option Now, let’s move on to strategy number two. You would buy a put option. “Put” means that you have the right to sell a stock at the strike price. So, again, we will be using the same example of AAPL that we used for the first strategy. So as I just said, we’re pretending AAPL right now is trading at around $119 and we believe that AAPL will go down to $110. This is how this would work. So this is where we are looking at an AAPL put, let’s say here, AAPL put of 119, and it is trading at around $1.80. So here is what exactly we would do. We would buy a put for $1.80. Now, this put gives us the right to sell AAPL for $119. Now, if AAPL really goes all the way down to $100, see same deal here, we actually would make $9 per stock. However, we have to deduct the premium that we paid for the option, which is $1.80. So this means here we are making $7.20 per share ($9 — $1.80). If we would trade one option, one option controls 100 shares, so this means that we are making $720 total. Which Strategy Should You Use? Now, the main difference between these two strategies is that, for strategy number two buying a put, you don’t need as much money. Remember when I went to my trading platform earlier and wanted to sell AAPL 100 shares, that my broker was reserving around $6,000 dollars in my account? Now keep this in mind. According to what my trading platform is telling me, if I want to buy this option, it would only cost me $180. So as you can see, huge difference. In the one case, the broker is reserving $6,000 with the possibility of making $900. For strategy two, buying a put, your broker is only requesting $180 and that is also the maximum amount that you can lose, and you can make possibly $720 here. Summary So this is how you can make money in a falling market. Now, very important, strategy number one, where you’re just shorting the stock and where the broker is lending you the stock, you cannot do that in a retirement account. But strategy number two, buying a put, you CAN do in a retirement account, and you can do this for any stock. Now, you might actually be bullish on AAPL , but if you look at some other stocks right now that we're in a downtrend, for example, ZM , if you say, “Oh my gosh, Zoom is crazy, during the pandemic here,” it went from, what? $50 to $500? You could think, “This is absolutely overvalued and I believe that Zoom will go down to $300” you can use one of these strategies. So you see that all these stocks that, during the pandemic benefited a lot, could actually move lower, this is how you can make money in a falling market. So now you know two strategies how to make money in a falling market, how to bet on a stock that is going down.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by rockwelltrading
1
When We Mistake the Map for the TerritoryNow that we know the virus is not going to get even remotely close to what the models were projecting (for now). I think it’s relevant to compare this V-shaped price recovery to the December 18 market plunge. Dec. 03 peak to Dec. 24th trough = we plunged 17.10% (in 3 weeks) From that bottom to Jan. 18 peak = we rebounded 14.74% (25 days) -->We recuperated about 86.5% of that percentage loss Feb. 19 peak to March 23rd trough = we plunged 35.72% From that bottom to our April 20th peak = we rebounded 31.5% (also 25 days!) -->We recaptured about 88% of that percentage loss *Now why did I choose these specific dates?? Answer: Because both April 20 (2020) and Jan. 18 (2018) are the peaks we made before we deviated from that “V-shaped recovery channel” Conclusion: In both V-shaped recoveries, we recapture roughly 87% of that % loss in “coincidently” 25 days as well. And then deviated out of the V-shaped channel, tested the nearest support for confirmation, and tipped off a new bull market. It probably boils down to some sort of market psychology that repeats in these types of circumstances... Now unlike the conventional belief right now, why is it all of sudden relevant and perhaps helpful to compare this crash to December 2018’s? 1)it’s the most recent liquidity crisis we’ve had 2)it was an overreaction to the potentiality of something -fear that we’re due for a recession because this bull run is much longer than its predecessors -this cycle has lasted for 10 years whereas the average is 4.5 years. This does not constitute a recession! -However, this bad logic no longer mattered once the fear becomes a contagion 3)The unraveling effect. This begins when people are provoked(by media) to look for these assurances and “oddly enough” they find these assurances As the wise Nassim Taleb says when describing cultural products, "It is hard for us to accept that people do not fall in love with works of art only for their own sake, but also in order to feel that they belong to a community. By imitating, we get closer to others-that is, other imitators. It fights solitude." Just think about it for a minute. If you were really to boil down and I mean really...The Covid crash, Dec. 2018 crash, Feb. 2018 “Peak”, Dot Com tech bubble, 01’ panic were all triggered by nothing more than a cultural product. How do contagions come about? We as humans scorn the abstract, we hate uncertainty. What we have is an aptitude for reduction. We find patterns where there are not (at first). Where can these patterns be found? What does the current language around me sound like? Most people just accept this as truth but all it is, is majority opinion that becomes so widely accepted that it becomes reality. This according to the book Black Swan is called “platonicity” which is our tendency to mistake the map for the territory. We focus on the pure and well-defined forms, the overgeneralizations, the things that make sense. And where things get dangerous is when, “...these ideas and crisp constructs inhabit our minds, we privilege them over the less tractable structures Platonicity is what makes us think that we understand more than we actually do. Now obviously this does not happen everywhere. Only in specific applications are these models, and constructions, these intellectual maps of reality wrong. “These models are like potentially helpful medicines that carry random but very severe side effects...The platonic fold is the explosive boundary where the platonic mindset enters in contact with messy reality where the gap between what you know and what you think you know becomes dangerously wide. It is here that the Black Swan is produced.” (Nassim Taleb)
SP:SPX
by TheMandalorian27
5