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Marketcrash

DJI broke down the first level of support!While everyone in the social media is talking about another market crash in 2021, and the inverted yield. DJI is showing signs of weakness and volatility which can continue for some time. Scenario 1 - downtrend: DJI broke below the 100 moving average, it has also broken the daily support trendline. This indicates either a downtrend momentum is happening or a correction to next previous resistance level that should act as a strong support. Scenario 2 - volatility and continue the uptrend DJI would just fall into volatility for 2 months and then continue its path to uptrend.
TVC:DJIShort
by Skypips
1
This time is...⏰ Market exuberance:New secular bear market? 🐻Hi mates, stock market is probably near top and next huge market meltdown is next door . Why i think so?I want to share with you some pieces of my analysis: 📌S&P500 vs. Utilities sector ratio It seems it could forecast short and mid term corrections in stock market but it looks like its good indicator of broader market cycles as secular bear/bull markets. A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets. 📌Yield spread Inverted yield curve is leading warning indicator of future recession. The basic principle is whe yield spred inverted (was in negative territory) you can expect recession in next 12-months.It happened when Dot.com bubble bursted in 2000-2001 and so in Great financial crisis in 2007- 2008 as you see in chart. 📌Put/Call ratio The put-call ratio is calculated by dividing the number of traded put options by the number of traded call options. You can use it as contrarian indicator to determine how much Bullish/Bearish the market is. An extremely low ratio means the market is extremely bullish. A contrarian might conclude that the market is too bullish and is due for a pullback. Contrary extremely high ratio means the market is extremely bearish. In my analysis i using 20day MA of Put/Call Ratio an looking up for divergencies. 📌VIX divergence of 20 MA 📌Nasdaq vs Russlel 2000 Just so similar pattern on monhly chart of Nasdaq and Russell 2000 📌Other factors Margin debt acceleration is another sign of speculative frenzy in the market Margin debt is not a technical indicator for trading markets. What margin debt represents is the amount of speculation that is occurring in the market. In other words, margin debt is the ‘gasoline,’ which drives markets higher as the leverage provides for the additional purchasing power of assets. However, ‘leverage’ also works in reverse as it supplies the accelerant for more significant declines as lenders ‘force’ the sale of assets to cover credit lines without regard to the borrower’s position. Here is chart Total market cap of negative earnings of IT firms near $1 trillion its more than 2000 -2001 Dot.com bubble. Source:KailashConcepts If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
AMEX:XLUShort
by Tomasgei
6
🏴‍☠️Market crash 2021 BIG UPDATE: Bull trap on SPY and more...Hi mates, i sharing my thoughs about markets from last week and my view for week ahead. So there is little summary of last week: Stocks AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ had another up week and reach another all time high President-elect Joe Biden promise another $2000 stimulus COINBASE:BTCUSD soared to 40K and reach all time high TVC:TNX rose above 1% Labor market worsening, key economic data showed last week COMEX:GC1! Sellof more than 4% TVC:DXY bounce from support at 89.50 level US Dollar Index - DXY Dollar index created inverted Head & Shoulders reversal pattern in demand area and started boucing off the lows, supported by massive divergence on long term CCI Volatility index - VIX S&P 500 Volatility index is still well above 20 level from 2020 and its set up for another bounce from its demand zone on 19.50 level 10 Years Trasury Yield Yield of 10-y Treasury pumping up momentum. Last week advanced more than 20% thats big move, compared several weeks ago Next week we expecting some important economic numbers and events: CPI and Core CPI Beige Book Unemployment Claims Fed Chair Powell Speaks Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales Through next week i expect higher volatility will come. At friday AMEX:SPY created bull trap by candlestick pattern hanging man by piercing higher rising channel line supported by divergence on long term CCI. So i will play stocks very carefully next week for long side. We can observe some flow into Financial, Healthcare and Materials sector so these sectors could be a good play for next week.Expecting further rise of TVC:DXY and TVC:TNX so this could make some further pressure on commodities like COMEX:GC1! .
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tomasgei
7
Market Crash Inbound? TLT WILL DECIDE $TLT $SPY | Play of YearTLT (inverse gov bonds) looks like it's ready to make a move within the next few weeks, after forming a pretty nice wedge. This will ultimately be a very important indication of what direction the market will be heading in Q1 21 and beyond... (scroll for options play idea) Just looking at the fundamentals on TLT, we can predict a market-wide dump (nice correction) with the next 4 months, nailing it on the head will be the difficult part which will most likely involve some type of fundamentals like another rate cut for example (what happened back in Feb and March). TLT is an extremely slow mover, which makes a extremely profitable during higher volatility moves. This will predict the direction of almost the entire market. TLT would give an indication of a bullish market and economic bounceback if it falls off below $154.63 , but would be confirmed with the break below $148.9. TLT would indicate a potential market-wide correction if it were to break $159.7 as it should make a quick move toward $170 once broken. The economy might get sketchy If TLT were to break $172.15. Back in February, we entered TLT after the gap up and continuation past $148.90, leading us to a 19% move at highs from that level. Now we will watch $159.7 for a potential breakout which will ultimately result in a similar move as we saw in Feb. THE EASY LOOT PLAY: |BULLISH| : TLT $170 CALL 4/16/21 @ $140 AVG (I like) or TLT $170 CALL 3/19/21 @ $90 AVG (higher reward higher risk) |BEARISH| : Not gonna touch it, sit on hands and find other great growth Timing is key, don't jump the gun DCJ | Jack
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by DotcomJack
7
BTC/USDT 15 minute Hide your wife Hide your kidsAs UK Borders are closed due to a new Corona strain that spreads up to 70% faster we are seeing a large market sell off. We are currently testing resistance, but I expect to see another drop at market open 930am EST. I knew something like this would happen, but did not know precisely when. This could be the catalyst that finally rolls the dollar over as well as the final straw on the proverbial back of World economies. Say a prayer this is gonna get a lot worse before it gets better.
Short
by The_New_Disciple
2
US Market: About to crash or everything is going "good"?Hello traders!  Hope y'all had a good week. In this post I want to talk a little about the nature of the economic recovery that we have seen in one of the largest equity markets in the world: the USA stock exchange.  Unless you've been living under a rock, isolated and without contact with the outside, you are probably aware about the overall outlook on how the pandemic has impacted different countries. In the U.S there were strong market crashes at the beginning of the year, multiple sessions with market halts, companies going bankrupt and others, mainly on the tech side, significantly increasing their value, among other things.  As the months went by and as optimism about an accelerated economic recovery began to reach the markets, we saw how they started rising again, to the point of reaching all-time highs. However, there are certain things that we cannot ignore when evaluating the character of this rise. On the fundamental side, we have certain aspects that we must consider: Stimulus packages The (literally) trillionaire dollar print Interest rates at 0 There has been much talk that this recovery is nothing more than a result of the stimulus packages delivered by the US government, since many people have used the money to start their trading journey, leading to demand for shares and consequently pushing the price up. This is tied to the gigantic amount of new dollars in circulation, which is intended to combat deflation. (In short, it's when no one spends money because they expect prices to fall, and it can be much more devastating than inflation). The problem is that, despite all these efforts, inflation continues not to rise and the US government has been left without many alternatives to achieve its goal of 2% per year inflation rate. Since interest rates are already at 0%, the only bullet they have regarding monetary policies is lowering the rates to the negative field. From a technical analysis point of view, there are certain patterns and clues (circled on the chart) that volume leaves us. If we pay attention, we can see that we have repeatedly seen a significant increase in volume around the areas where the market has made a correction, while the bullish rallies have not been accompanied by a especially high volume. This may suggest, in summary, that when the market makes a correction, there are many more interested in selling than buyers who want to join when the market rises. This in itself is not enough to conclude that we are facing another market downturn, but it is definitely something to consider when analyzing the character of the upward momentum in recent months, especially when contrasting it with the reality that exists in many places, since it does not it exactly reflects a healthy economy that supports rising markets, and while Main Street and Wall Street are different creatures, it's important to consider both.  There you have it folks! Remember that with or without a global economic crisis, we must always plan each trade we make and trade our plan.  I hope this post is useful for you! Leave in the comments what you think about it.
SP:SPX
by FernandoBorea
Assigned With A Wheel Trade & The Market TanksI’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years. I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails. They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way. The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically. Real money…real trades. In this article, I want to talk about what to do when you get assigned with a Wheel trade. Previously, I have shown you the Wheel strategy. It’s a strategy that I’ve been trading for several months and I haven’t had a single losing trade yet, knock on wood. So I received a lot of comments on my videos asking, “Yeah. That’s all good. But what do you do when you get assigned with a Wheel trade and the market crashes?” And that’s exactly what we are going to talk about today. What To Do When You Get Assigned With A Wheel Trade I want to show you how to handle getting assigned when the market crashes by using a real trade as an example where this happened to me, and I couldn’t have timed it more perfectly because a little over a month ago, on October 28th, I was recently in such a trade. The market was down more than 3% and it was a bloodbath. Luckily, this scenario provides me with an opportunity to use it as a template to show you what to do when this happens. The TQQQ trade I was in at the time works as a perfect example, so let me just show you how things panned out. So with this TQQQ trade, had an open P&L of -$2,667. So what does this mean? Does it mean that we do have a big loss here? No. This is only an unrealized loss, and this is how I handled it. I simply followed the 5 steps of The Wheel strategy, and the 5 steps are as follows: Pick a stock that’s going sideways or slightly moving up. Sell a Put Option , i.e. you have to buy the stock at the strike price. Collect Premium and buy the Put back when we see 90% of the profits. If we get assigned, i.e. have to buy the stock, we will sell Covered Calls against these shares to try and sell the shares at the strike price. Collect premium and buy the Call back when we see 90% of the profits. Selling Puts The trade initially started on September 3rd, so let’s backtrack a little bit to really dissect it step by step. TQQQ met all my criteria, and on September 3rd is when I first trading this. September 3th, when I started trading this, I sold 150 put for $0.66, which is $66 because I traded one contract, and one contract represents 100 shares. The next day I got assigned. I got assigned because when you’re selling puts it means that if the stock goes below the strike price at expiration, 150 in this case, I would get assigned. This is exactly what happened a day later when the option expired. So I made $66 by collecting premium, even though I got assigned 100 shares at $150/share, but here’s the deal. Since I sold the put for $0.66 this means that my cost basis, since I keep that premium regardless of whether I am assigned or not, gets lower. So this means that the $150 a share I paid minus the $0.66 I collected per share, brings my cost basis down to $149.34. Now doesn’t sound a lot, but it basically means that the stock now does not have to go above $150 anymore. As soon as TQQQ goes up to $149.34 I’m breaking even. Now if it goes above this, I’m making money. Simple right? Selling Covered Calls Now that we have been assigned, this is where we start selling Covered Calls. When you sell Covered Calls against these shares, the goal is to try and sell them at that strike price of that Call, while collecting more premium. Here’s the trade that I did. I sold a 155 Call for $2.10 on the 10th after realizing 90% of the profits, I bought it back for $0.37 the next day. So $2.10 minus $0.37 means I made $173. And now my cost basis gets reduced by another $1.73. Well, now our cost basis is going lower. Our cost basis of $149.34 drops by $1.73, so our new cost basis is now $147.61. This means that if the stock goes back to $147.61 we break even, and if it goes above we are making money. Easy right? Next, I sold the September 80 Call, the September 18 150 Call, for $0.45, then bought it back for $0.05. So this means at this point we made another $40, bringing our cost basis down by another $0.40 to $147.21. The stock kept going against us. It was going down and this is what many of you are concerned about. “What do I do if the stock keeps going down?” Well, you keep selling premium, and by doing so, you’re lowering the cost basis. Well, what I did next was really cool. Selling More Puts? So next, I sold actually two puts for $110 and $118. So that averages out to $114. Then I bought them back at $0.06. This means $114 minus $0.06. So we made another $108 here. Now I’ll explain in a moment why I sold a put here even though right now since we own stocks, and we should be selling calls. There’s a very specific reason for it, and I’ll explain it to you. Looking back at our trade, we are lowering our cost basis to $146.13. Next, after we sold the puts and they expired worthless I actually sold another 100 put for $2.40 and bought it back for $24. So we made another $216 here. Bringing our cost basis down again from $146.13 minus $2.16 to now $143.97. When To Sell Puts INSTEAD Of Calls So if you are supposed to sell Covered Calls during this stage of The Wheel Strategy, why did I sell those Puts? I already owned 100 shares of TQQQ that were assigned to me, so why risk getting assigned more? Well, I sold these Puts, instead of Calls for a specific reason. At this stage of The Wheel Strategy is where you normally would sell Calls, however, if you are on this part of this strategy, and the market is tanking, you have to make an adjustment to this strategy if the price keeps dropping, to help keep your cost basis as low as possible. These were 100 Puts, meaning if the price would have dropped below $100 at expiration for either of them, and I would have been assigned the shares. If that were to happen, I would now own 100 shares at $100 each, on top of the 100 shares I already own at $150 each. So now I own 200 shares, I paid a total of $250 for, bringing the average price per share to $125. Getting assigned these shares would have lowered my cost basis tremendously. If you subtract the total Premium I received on all of these trades, which was $12.05 a share ($1,205 overall) from the average price per share, which in this case is now $125, this comes to a cost basis of $112.95. This is what the cost basis would have been IF I was assigned these additional 100 shares at $100 each. I wasn’t assigned these shares, however, and my final cost basis was $137.95. Do you see why getting assigned is a good thing? People are afraid of getting assigned, but as long as you have adequate buying power, and are following my methods for picking good stocks, assignment should be looked at as a good thing. Selling Premium You see, this is what the Wheel does. You can sell premium while you own the stocks. So I then sold a $150 call for $1.57, bought it back at 15. So this means that I made another $142 bringing down my cost basis again to $142.55. Now, I don’t want to bore you and make this article too long here, but long story short, as you can see, I sold a few more of the calls and I bought them back. So overall, by just selling premium, even though I still owned the stock, I was continuing to lower my cost basis. At this point, the stock was down $2,770. However, by doing this, by selling more calls and puts here, I was able to make $1,748 in premium. So this means I made $17.48 per share on these 100 shares. So if you take the $150 minus $17.48 right now, right now my cost basis to break even on this trade is $132.52. So as soon as TQQQ goes back to $132. Now, what happens if TQQQ keeps going down? I will keep doing what I’ve been doing, following The Wheel Strategy. I’ll keep collecting premium until at some point, I can sell these shares for a profit. Recap So now you know what to do when you get assigned with a Wheel trade, and hopefully, it becomes less scary for you. I look forward to getting assigned with a Wheel trade because that allows me to sell calls and make even more money. If the stock keeps going down, I’ll just keep selling, and I will continue to lower my break even more and more. So, right now, TQQQ does no longer have to go all the way up to 150. It only needs to go up to $132.52. I just wanted to address this process because I know that many people who are trading this strategy are concerned saying, "Oh my gosh, what if I get assigned with a Wheel trade?” It’s a good thing. It’s a good thing and now you know why.
NASDAQ:TQQQEducation
by rockwelltrading
1
Crash Happening?With many outlets warning of a crash this could push sentiment towards a bearish market. COVID cases rising in Europe could indicate a similar fate for the U.S. The stimulus checks not coming as promised and an election that could change the monetary policy and increase taxes on the wealthy that influence the market. This could mean trouble with an eviction crisis coming soon too. The only thing I see getting us out of this is a massive distribution of a vaccine that works. People aren't trusting the idea of a rushed vaccine (wasn't that the plot of I AM LEGEND?) Anyways based on this information, I'd like to submit my analysis of the SPXS which in the heat of the lockdowns rose 150%, and based on this information I will see price targets of 11.10-11.50 which is where I will start a trailing stop. Then I may consider the price 16.60-16.75 based on technical analysis and price action. The trailing stop may hit prior but either way, I will profit while the market tanks. I hope you do too
AMEX:SPXSLong
by JakeBrandonCastro
3
BTC/USDT Day Chart THE Bitcoin pattern Descending triangleWe fall far from here all the way to 3800. We will bounce off key support levels which I will post following this chart. You will see we are finished up a descending scallop and am falling from here. Watch your alt coins as BTC falls to its support levels. As it enters HCR (Horizontal Consolidation Regions) we will see pumps from alts so keep an eye out to catch some of those for some quick scalps,but don't over stay your welcome. Its also advised to get out of any shorts on BTC and avoid trying to long the HCR's as they will chop you up and spit you out very easily if you slip up trading the waves. It is important to remember that everything involved with these charts are fractals. Given this information you then determine the overwhelming pattern. Whatever market direction is associated with a certain pattern you can then see it echoed in the sub patterns. You see this when you see the descending scallops within the descending triangle. A lot of money to be made on this drop be careful keep to your rules. if you like the content throw me a like and follow me for great ideas.
Short
by The_New_Disciple
8
SPY, Is tomorrow judgement day for the market?With a close below the 200 day moving average, the big question is, does this continue? Make sure you press like and follow so I know you want more ideas like this!! Here we examine the 4hr chart. While things have seemed bad for Spy lately, if we break down the broader term price action, we see an ascending channel. This channel began on a gap up after a corona panic induced sell off. Actions has been on the upper end of the midline throughout the majority of the trend. With steam slowing down, this one could finish of the lower end of the midline if the upwards trend reclaims this week. Spy needs to bounce upwards off the 200 day moving average with a close above said average to show any signs of hope. Heavy support around the 320 area, bulls need to reclaim this area and turn things around Lets focus on a current time frame with projections into the Presidential election. Do investors see 1 more opportunity left into October, or do we start to break down out of the channel and into a new trend? Spy is extremely oversold on many intraday time frames, nearing oversold on the daily. All indicators included, in my opinion, this one is very much up in the air. With so much uncertainty in the air do investors pull the rug and take the cash to their portfolios and let the bears run loose, or do the bulls reclaim the price action back into a bullish movement? This could be the week we find out
AMEX:SPY
by king806
7
Why Did The Stock Market Crash?Last Wednesday, I warned during my live show that the market could crash soon. And it did... The next day the NASDAQ lost more than 5% – and for the next few days it kept moving lower. And not to brag, but I pretty much nailed my prediction: I said the S&P would correct to 3,400 and then bounce back. Well, I was off by a few points. It went down to 3,330 and then bounced back. Close enough 🙂 So why did the stock market just have a bit of a flash crash? And will they keep crashing, or is the worst over now? In order to answer the question “why are the markets crashing,” let’s back off for a moment and discuss why stocks exist in the first place. At some point, a company may need to raise capital, and they don’t necessarily want to borrow it from the bank. So they sell parts of the company to investors, and these are shares. Let’s take a look at a company like Apple AAPL. They have issued 17.1 BILLION shares. Now let’s compare this to another company that has been incredibly popular this year, Zoom Communications (ZM). They have issued 194.76 Million shares. As you can see, that’s much less. EPS And A Market Crash? So in order to compare these 2 companies, smart people (way smarter than me) came up with the idea of creating a metric, the EPS, or Earnings Per Share. This metric tells you how much a company earns per ONE share of stock that they issue. So for AAPL that’s $3.30 and for ZOOM that’s $0.78. As you can see, AAPL is much more profitable per share that they have issued compared to ZM. No surprise. Now… what does THIS all have to do with the market crashing? Bear with me… you’ll see in a moment. So now you know about the “EPS” – the Earnings Per Share. The next key metric that you need to know is the “P/E” ratio. PE Ratio or Price Per Earnings The PE ratio is the “price per earning,” so you take the stock price and divide it by the earnings per share (the profit) of the company. This PE ratio tells you how much overvalued or undervalued a company is. Let’s take a look at the PE values of AAPL and ZM. For AAPL, the PE ratio is 35.79. So this means that the stock is trading at 35x the profits. For ZM, it is a whopping 490!!! The stock price is 490 times the earnings! That’s crazy! So let’s see what’s normal. Here’s the PE ratio of the S&P 500 companies. Right now, it’s 29.24, so almost 30. Apple’s PE ratio is 35, so it’s close to the average of the S&P 500 companies. But AAPL is a tech stock, and we know that the NASDAQ is the “tech index.” So let’s take a look at the PE Ratio of the NASDAQ. It’s 26.52 right now. Wait, what??? I thought everybody was saying that tech stocks are overvalued??? Well, it seems they are in line with the S&P 500, and it’s also in line with its historic averages. So why is everybody saying that stocks are overvalued right now? And why did the market crash? Well, there’s a simple explanation. Let’s dive a little bit deeper into the NASDAQ. There are 100 companies in the NASDAQ Index, and here’s how they are weighted. As you can see, the Top 7 companies make 50% of the weight of the index. We already looked at Apple and know that their P/E ratio is at 35 right now, and that’s AFTER the correction. So it’s still higher than the average of 26.52 but not too crazy. Let’s take a look at the others PE Ratio: 2.) AMZN: 126. 3.) MSFT: 37 4.) FB: 33 5.) GOOGL: 34 6.) GOOG: 35 7.) TSLA: 907 So as you can see, these 7 companies currently account for 50% of the NASDAQ, and are all trading higher than the average, with AMZN and TSLA being crazily overvalued. And simply put, that’s why the market crashed. At some point, the big hedge fund guys realized, “Oh man, we have some crazy stocks here in our portfolio! They are overvalued!” And so the big guys are taking some profits off the table and SELLING these heavily overvalued companies. And if they “only” sell shares of these 7 companies, then it drags the whole Nasdaq down. So will the market continue to move lower? Earlier this year, the NASDAQ lost 30%. Can this happen again, or is over after this 10% drop? Well, we had this pandemic, and NOBODY knew how it would affect our economy. So the big guys did what they usually do when there’s uncertainty: SELL and sit on a pile of cash, like Warren Buffet. But you’re not earning any money on cash. At some point, you need to invest the money again in the market. And once we had a better idea of how the virus affected our economy, the big guys started buying again. So if we look at this “flash crash” in September 2020, here’s what happened: The big guys – a.k.a SMART MONEY – noticed that some of the stocks that they purchased went up too much, and they sold them to take profits. But they can’t sit on the cash for long. They need to earn money, so they invest it again after values are back to normal. And that’s what we are seeing today: It’s called “buying the dip.” Summary: Why Did The Markets Crash? You should now be familiar with both EPS (Earnings Per Share) and the PE Ratio (Price Per Earnings). And you know that the big guys – the smart money – they’re keeping a close eye on these numbers. If they get too high, then they SELL some stocks and realize a profit, and they buy companies with a lower PE ratio. And THAT is why the markets crashed for a few days – and why they are bouncing back right now.
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
Euro Long Term Macro Analysis - Crash in Sep ? HI! It's Mentorify team here! Because it's our first publish, let me introduce ourselves first. We are Iranian. A team with experts in different fields like programming, trading, analyzing (fundamental and technical), and teaching! The Mentorify team has the biggest and most useful Cryptocurrency group in Iran for the last 2 years. We Mentorifing you to success! 👌 ---------------------------------------------- Now the analysis! 📉 After the big drop of dollar index form July, we believe it's the end of the wave, based on time, price, and fundamentals. Euro is the same. The end of the bull wave. We see a MASSIVE drop in the next months. 💀 There isn't a confirmation in price action YET. So you should wait for it. We will update the chart on this post when we saw the confirmation (so make sure you click on "Follow this idea". It will make you know if there is an update for this chart). Remember, no confirm = no trade. 👌 The long term targets are: 1.064 ✅ 1.034 ✅ All of our analysis is based on pure price action and order flow analysis. So don't judge fast ;) ❤
Short
by UnknownUnicorn6666594
Pound Mid Term Analysis After the big drop of dollar index form July, we believe it's the end of the wave, based on time, price, and fundamentals. The pound is the same. The end of the bull wave. We see a MASSIVE drop in the next months. 💀 There isn't a confirmation in price action YET. So you should wait for it. We will update the chart on this post when we saw the confirmation (so make sure you click on "Follow this idea". It will make you know if there is an update for this chart). Remember, no confirmation = no trade. 👌 The long term targets are: 1.225 ✅ 1.207 ✅ All of our analysis is based on pure price action and order flow analysis. So don't judge fast ;) ❤
Short
by UnknownUnicorn6666594
2