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Marketcrash

NASDAQ - I won't panic, sorry.Nasdaq's bull run was unreal. Out of this world. Irrealistic, many would say. We all knew this was going to happen at some point. Call me delusional, overly optimistic, or even naive. But I am not panicking just yet. We broke through resistance and a pull-back to the new support is a healthy signal. We need the Nasdaq to slow down, we need to put a break to impulse investing, to unreasonable pumps, and, most importantly, to the media pressure. If I was to treat this chart as a stock, I would place a limit order on the bounce, aiming for a perfect textbook entry point. I know that a bull-run will most likely follow after that. I might wrong, of course. After all, trading is not an exact science and I'm not considering fundamentals as well as behavioral finance in my analysis. However, I just feel it is too early to call this a crash. I will definitely be concerned if we break through the support line. Not until then, though. When it comes to my trading activity, I had already skipped trading tech for the past week or so, as I felt this was coming this week. I will now sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind. Time now to be grateful for our wonderful August, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon. I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the Nasdaq, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by maschera
3
What To Watch For Before Stock Market CrashesWhen I asked my members for topics they would like educational posts about, this one came up. I chose this one as its widely suspected that we COULD see another market crash soon, so its best to know what to look for before it happens. VIX One key chart you will start seeing react is the VIX. This is the Volatility Index, or sometimes called the Fear Index because it measures the predicted volatility the market as a whole expects. Typically when you see the VIX rise, it means we can suspect to see stock market prices start to fall. This is because usually market increases are a slow steady march upwards over time whereas any crashes are highly volatile. Please take some time and compare spikes in the VIX chart to the timeline on the S&P. SPDN This is a chart I watch constantly, and should be a member of your watchlist too. The SPDN chart is an inverse ETF of the S&P500, in simple terms when the S&P falls, this rises and vice versa. This goes one step further than just predicting volatility, it shows you where investors are actively betting on a market crash. Clearly this is a strong indicator of which direction the market participants expect the market to move. Its important to watch volume on this chart, not so much price - because you are interested in times investors are moving money into this asset. You will see a large increase in volume before many recent crashes. DBPK does the same for European stock markets. Fundamentals Anyone who has watched The Big Short will understand how a clear understanding of economic fundamentals will show you when and where to expect market crashes. This movie dramatises how a small group of Wall Street investors predict the 2008 financial crisis, and subsequently profit immensely from it. So it will definitely pay to take the time (years and decades) required to truly understand market economics and the fundamentals of the financial world so that you can identify weaknesses in the framework of the stock market too. My Current View I personally posted about this very topic where im seeing some of the typical warning signs before a market crash happen RIGHT NOW. I have linked to this post where I go in a little bit more detail about the current climate in the related post below.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by JoelWarby
2
STOXX 600 (BANKING)STOXX 600 BANKING -as indicated on the chart. the blue highlighted area is a buying opportunity with to much risk for me, so i will not participate, the greater opportunity is a SHORT, i will also not participate. The take away here is that prices can tumble all the way down to the yellow zone and a new normal will emerge in the most devastating deflationary market the world has ever seen - In line with my expectation that crypto currencies like Bitcoin, Ripple and Euthereum will sky rocket to new highs and make many rich in the a world of new normal!!
SWB:EXV1
by UnknownUnicorn1530896
[TVIX] The Future Has Arrived.. SPX Falls Some, TVIX EXPLODES!I've been calling this for three weeks now and been holding most my TVIX since May 18th among other inverse plays. Just made some revisions to my OG idea and cleaned up the lines a bit to try to dial in the up spike here. Here's all your entry and exit price targets from May 26th: All that holds the same today. TVIX still much better risk/reward than VIX. We already blew past most my entry targets straight to the 'Okay Value' range of $205-$280. I will not be buying above $205 personally because 'Okay Value' doesn't fit my investment strategy. However for others it may. Investing above $280 becomes increasingly more risky and should be approached with caution. I reupped all my shorts yesterday ~15%, just in the nick of time! Will likely reup another 20% if it dips back under $200 but depends on a lot. I'm very comfortable with my 25-30% portfolio short position (PRIOR to the explosion today). I'm holding till at least $400 as indicated in my OG idea. Gonna take a quick victory lap and tag all my best TVIX Long ideas and SPX Short over the past few weeks :). Probably best to let this one ripen a bit before you harvest! B)
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
11
[SPX x DIX/GEX 2Y] Looks Like a Giant Cresting Wave!Got a tip that led me here: squeezemetrics.com Then had some fun playing with lines: ibb.co I don't put too much weight in any given strategy, preferring to average them all against fundamentals but holy shit was I surprised when after diving in from scratch to map the empty chart, it actually turned into a terrifying, accelerating and rising wave that's looking like it's f*cking cresting and about to crash first week of June. So wild! I hope all the Bulls are having fun picking up the seashells from the receding ocean...
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
[SPX] Indicators Screaming SELL... Ignore at Your Own Peril!MACD looking to flip. ADX looking to flip. DPO very high. RSI as VPT screaming sell. RSI and RVI screaming sell. SMAs weighing heavy on market and indicating a sell. POC under price and signaling sell. Really hard to make any kind of bull case from technicals here. This is my last rundown on SPX before the creash probably (will start tomorrow and continue through mid-June). I'll be busy riding the TVIX for the next two weeks :).
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
8
[TVIX] Indicators and Support Pointing toward BreakoutCheckout that upward support trend from May 12th low. That is particularly interesting given the nature of the TVIX to constantly fall lower. Lookout for ADX crossing the DPO, better the divergence the stronger the trend. Also lookout for RVI crossing and holding just above RSI, could be a leading indicator here of upward movement. Those indicators are really both primed signaling a pretty strong buy right now. MACD still terrifying, it's clear something has to break. I'm betting that the news dropping 1st week of June with ensure that break is downward. I'll be looking to expand my position Thursday and probably get my last bets in Friday before close. Maybe hold till weekend but unlikely we'll need to. Prepare for the harvest!
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
10
[TVIX] How to Profit from Volatility and the Next CrashI've been running my mouth all over on here about a market crash so only right that I put my money where my mouth is. Here's my angle, lets see how it goes :). TVIX at great value right now (anything under $200 really) given the decimated fundamentals and extreme uncertainty. Looking to exit $400-$800 range within one month on crash depending on severity. Lets see how it goes! Feel free to catch up on three of TODAY's headlines: www.ccn.com www.ccn.com www.ccn.com Inspiration from @dereckcoatney VIX analysis, article tagged below.
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
[SPX 1W Trend Analysis] Oh Boy... This Looks Much Worse Was inspired by @cryptocarlsontrading who made a very compelling 1W short case here: www.tradingview.com Wanted to build on that with my own 1W breakdown. As a swing trader sometimes I get caught too much in my 4h world and it can be very instructive to zoom out and see the bigger picture. After doing this exercise, I'm even more convinced of the coming June crash. Just look at those parallel trend channels compared to the support. We're definitely retesting 1W green support in June with some risk of breaking and holding under that for a few days (although given the consistency here I think there is more chance for a bounce off of it). Points: 1. That MACD is horrifying. Most likely the histogram and MACD line won't even go high enough to retest channel resistance before shooting back down. 2. The price barely crossed the half way point of the current trend channel, expect it to fall back and stick at channel support a bit, won't retest channel resistance. Volume Profile will support it pretty well. 3. Very slippery Volume Profile slope once it holds below current channel, expect it to slide all the way down to bottom support of new channel (4th yellow line) 4. Once it breaks that expect it to test the green support before rebounding for good and growth can continue at a more normalized, properly priced trajectory. 5. RSI: New up channel is steeper than previous up channel, likely will stick to blue down channel here. 6. OBV: Seems like a decent sell signal trigger here once it breaks below trendline. 7. VPT as RSI: Very strong sell signal. 8. POC is below price, it is right at the price on the 4h, this is bearish as well.
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
[SPX] SMA Trend Analysis - Beautiful 10 & 200 & POC ConvergenceAlrighty, long term I'm looking to build some kind of SMA trend and volume analysis model that could provide useful signals based on the angle of the trend lines and the POC and this is the start. Like if you wish to support my work! 10 & 50 moving in parallel about ~7 degrees below the 200. 100 moving ~15 degrees below the 200. POC is converging beautifully right with the 10 and 200 strongly signaling something is reaching a breaking point either up or down. All fundamentals and technicals pointing to down. All hopes and dreams and FOMO pointing to up. The market cannot be equal in value today as in January 2019. That is fundamental insanity. So this will almost certainly be a breaking point downward. Anyway, I digress! Let's note here that the... 200 is trending 12 degrees below the POC 100 - 23 below 50 - 16 below 10 - 16 below Lets call the average of these four Market Gravity POC. That gives out a Downward Gravity of 16.75. Here's my first shot at reading the tea leaves: I would say the 100 moving at such a steep degree against the 200 and twice the degree of the 10 and 50 is an extremely bearish short term signal. And the tandem trend of the 10 and 50 as bearish as well. The fact that the Market Gravity POC runs below the 10, 50 and 200 is also a very bearish signal. I would say the case is made AT LEAST for the market retesting March lows if not a medium to high degree of downside potential beyond that. Where you at?
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
8
[SPXU] Another Way to Profit on a Crash (Part 1)- DO NOT ATTEMPTSPXU is a very complex financial instrument and you should never trade this. It goes up when the market goes down. It resets everyday, unlike the VIX which functions more like a traditional stock. Honestly I don't even know how to chart this thing as it seems to function similar to a logarithmic scale but man look at that upside! There's barely any details on the internet about this thing but it is intended to be a day trade play and NOT intended to hold for more than a single day. Something to do with your daily increase or decrease compounding each day. Every new day it resets and this can really make the trade extremely volatile (please if anyone can explain this better, chime in!). I tested this out today. Was pretty certain the market was going to go down so I bet 1.5% of my portfolio on the SPXU and SDOW (same thing for either market). SPXU: Bought - $14.10 Sold - $14.38 SDOW: Bought - $30.04 Sell - $30.28 This doesn't look like much I know but if you extrapolate, that's 2% ROI on the SPXU in one day and 1% ROI on the SDOW in one day. What a return! Instead of day trading it though, which can be quite time consuming and brutal, I want to try to angle for a swing trade. Keep in mind everything says this is NOT INTENDED TO BE HELD MORE THAN ONE DAY and for the reason why they just say because your winnings or losses compound over time. But that sounds fantastic if I'm very confident the market will drop in much greater proportion on average each day than it rises over the next 30 days (I do believe this now). So lets see what happens if I swing trade this bucking bronco. My big market crash bet is on the TVIX (3x the VIX) but SPXU and SDOW could potentially be quite lucrative with a small investment if the market does crash.
AMEX:SPXULong
by ProfitHarvest
2