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Marketcrash2020

SPY, Is tomorrow judgement day for the market?With a close below the 200 day moving average, the big question is, does this continue? Make sure you press like and follow so I know you want more ideas like this!! Here we examine the 4hr chart. While things have seemed bad for Spy lately, if we break down the broader term price action, we see an ascending channel. This channel began on a gap up after a corona panic induced sell off. Actions has been on the upper end of the midline throughout the majority of the trend. With steam slowing down, this one could finish of the lower end of the midline if the upwards trend reclaims this week. Spy needs to bounce upwards off the 200 day moving average with a close above said average to show any signs of hope. Heavy support around the 320 area, bulls need to reclaim this area and turn things around Lets focus on a current time frame with projections into the Presidential election. Do investors see 1 more opportunity left into October, or do we start to break down out of the channel and into a new trend? Spy is extremely oversold on many intraday time frames, nearing oversold on the daily. All indicators included, in my opinion, this one is very much up in the air. With so much uncertainty in the air do investors pull the rug and take the cash to their portfolios and let the bears run loose, or do the bulls reclaim the price action back into a bullish movement? This could be the week we find out
AMEX:SPY
by king806
7
SPY - Short: A Market Correction Could Be Coming in Sep 2020Base on Renko candle chart, we easier realize an ABC Correction Wave are forming after Elliott Uptrend Waves completed. This correction should stop at $315 - $320, right the top of 3rd Elliott Wave. That is important Demand Zone. If a big Panic Sell happen, it easy to take SPY down to $295 - $300. To break this downtrend, SPY needs to close above $352 for at least 2 candles of D1. This scenario, in my opinion is only about 15% likely to happen. Sit on hands and watch the trend. Disclaimer. P/s. I hope I'm wrong.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PhanTichStock_com
1
NASDAQ - I won't panic, sorry.Nasdaq's bull run was unreal. Out of this world. Irrealistic, many would say. We all knew this was going to happen at some point. Call me delusional, overly optimistic, or even naive. But I am not panicking just yet. We broke through resistance and a pull-back to the new support is a healthy signal. We need the Nasdaq to slow down, we need to put a break to impulse investing, to unreasonable pumps, and, most importantly, to the media pressure. If I was to treat this chart as a stock, I would place a limit order on the bounce, aiming for a perfect textbook entry point. I know that a bull-run will most likely follow after that. I might wrong, of course. After all, trading is not an exact science and I'm not considering fundamentals as well as behavioral finance in my analysis. However, I just feel it is too early to call this a crash. I will definitely be concerned if we break through the support line. Not until then, though. When it comes to my trading activity, I had already skipped trading tech for the past week or so, as I felt this was coming this week. I will now sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind. Time now to be grateful for our wonderful August, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon. I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the Nasdaq, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by maschera
3
S&P 500 - A Predictable BounceWe all knew this was going to happen. You don’t need to be Bill Ackman to realize that the S&P 500 would hit its head soon. It was predictable - easy to spot. The question is though: is this a simple retracement or the beginning of a crash? The only certainty is that every time that the S&P 500 touches its 4-year resistance line, bad things are going to happen in the immediate future. Same pattern in the previous 4 years. COVID19 potential second wave, civil unrest all over the US, November's elections, outrageous tech valuations, and new retail investors inflating the TSLA or AAPL of this world. After all, RobinHood “democratized” investing - or maybe put a dangerous toy in the hand of the wrong kids, by creating the biggest mass-market manipulation tool of the history, some might say. It seems to be the perfect recipe for a crash. Or maybe not? Perhaps we are assisting to a natural retracement where we pull-back a 10-15% before we are ready to roll again. Perhaps there is no tech bubble and the Nasdaq is safer than we think. Tech is different nowadays - it has a real impact on anyone’s life. And for enterprises, it accelerates growth and saves costs - it’s a must, not a luxury. What if the sell-off was initiated by institutional algos? There is no strong catalyst at the moment to justify what happened. The price hitting the resistance level might have triggered institutional algos to book profits. This might have created a chain effect that snowballed to all indices and to retail investors (who, rightfully, panicked). I personally believe that this is a healthy pull-back and that we should be able to hold up until November's elections. Who knows? No one knows, no one can know. We can only give opinions. Let's see what happens today and, most importantly, next week. Let's be cautious, but let's not panic just yet. When it comes to my trading activity, I will sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind. We had a tremendous August (up more than 200% and with an 85% win ratio) and a great start of September. Time now to be grateful, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon. The important thing is to have a plan both at trading and investment levels and be prepared for such events. I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the market, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
AMEX:SPY
by maschera
Likely 700 point drop looming, but this is very bullishI continue to run more models. My models are like the cones of uncertainty when forecasting hurricanes. The more data that comes in changes the cone. In this case, this chart is completely different from the one 2 weeks ago. That one saw the end of Grand Supercycle 1, this one still has us in the final Cycle wave 5. This model also projects Grand Supercycle wave 1 will not end until early-mid 2022, but more will be published on that later. My prior model was not completely wrong as the major crash is looming, it is now just delayed for another 18 months or so. This chart is using similar models to project Intermediate waves 3, 4, & 5 (which are annotated in the white text) and another one to project Primary waves 1 & 2. The end location for Intermediate wave 3 is based on 110 data points. It is even possible this wave 3 ended with the close of trading yesterday which could start a 150-200 point drop over the next 7-13 days. Intermediate wave 4's end dates and points are separately based on 150 data points. Wave 4's have an average and median drop of around 41% the entire movement of wave 3. Wave 4 will give way to a nice jump slated to top right before election day in the U.S. Intermediate wave 5 is based off of 190 data points and tends to be the most accurate in all of the models I run. The end of Intermediate wave 5 is also the end of Primary wave 1. There is some overlap in the projects for the intermediate and primary waves. The most accurate projections are for the intermediate waves due to the amount of available data to determine those dates and price levels. The yellow text primary waves are larger targets because less data was used to obtain them. The biggest data points for the yellow primary waves comes from one main area. The fifth wave typically accounts for 15-20% of the bigger wavelength (with a consistent average & median around 18%). Theoretically Cycle wave 5 will last around 18% of Supercycle wave 5's length. 18% of projected Supercycle wave 5 is 610 trading days. 15% is 491 trading days. My current projection has Supercycle wave 5 ending (which is also the end of Cycle wave 5) in 2022. I will go into greater detail about these points in the future. The primary waves were calculated solely based on the 491-610 trading day length of Cycle wave 5. Each wave tends last a similar ratio to the larger wave it trades inside. This is how the yellow text was calculated. Wave 1's tend to last ~29% of the larger wave, 2 is ~12%, 3 is ~37%, 4 is ~5%, and 5 is ~17%. These values are not found in any book, they are from nonstop studies of millions of data points my programs have been running. The 700 point drop in the title speaks of my current projection from the end of Intermediate wave 5 / Primary wave 1 right before election day and through the first quarter of 2021. My website will go into much greater detail about the drop and whys. Leave comments if this analysis was helpful and thanks for reading.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
2
The Greatest Depression In Our Lifetime Is Here According to..The stock market is on the verge of an epic collapse set to occur now. The greatest depression in global economies that any of us have or will see is here according to this accurate model. My 'crystal ball' is not based on the quarantined talking heads filling air time with circular-referenced positivity in an utterly negative market. Some loyal readers are wondering why I have not publicly published in more than a year, and no it was not a jail sentence. Up until May 2019, I had been manually running and tweaking an algorithm based on Elliott Wave Theory. I ran my algorithm and model in June 2019 which forecasted the beginning of a major market crash beginning in the first quarter of 2020. You can find the public mention of it at After running the model and seeing what was to come, I needed to find a better way of running models in the future that is quicker. I spent the last year learning how to code and write computer programs. I knew there was a learning curve and it would take time, but I would be able to get much more work done in the future with the investment of time now. Previously, I manually studied about 5 stocks and ETFs at a time, and each one required hours of work and crunching numbers through Excel and Google Sheets. Now I am running algorithms against hundreds in a matter of minutes. My hiatus from public market forecasts has been worth it. Now back to what you care about, the looming market drop. My program calculated every wave according to my interpretation of Elliott Wave Theory for the S&P 500 dating back to June 1, 1932. This is the estimated date that the index began its epic 5-part Grand Supercycle Wave 1. I reference waves and durations based off of the chart on my website which is also floating around on the internet. Grand Supercycle 1 is comprised of 5 Supercycle waves which tend to last between 40-70 years, but there is no concrete duration. The cycle that I have charted has lasted approximately 21,671 trading days from June 1932 until February 19, 2020 which is nearly 88 years. These 5 completed waves have only ended Grand Supercycle 1 meaning we have just entered Grand Supercycle 2, which is a significant and lengthy correction wave. On average, corrective number 2 waves last about 16 years from top to bottom and are reflected in a 3 wave ABC pattern. Wave A (comprised of 5 waves) goes down, wave B (3 waves) goes up, and the final wave C (5 waves) hits the bottom. We are in the very early stages of wave A slated to take the market and index down for 4-6 years, which I cover potential causes below. Wave B is projected to rise over 4-8 years possibly creating a new all-time high (ATH) in the index before Wave C finally hits the bottom in 4-12 years after B ends. Although the index has charged hard and nearly recouped all losses observed during the early COVID-related shutdowns, the steam is gone. This 'V-shaped recovery' has been more mythical than actual recovery. The index is back to where it was before jobs were lost, schools were closed (forcing some parents to quit their jobs or find new childcare expenses), restaurants operate at half capacity or less, tourism died, travel was restricted across states, nations, and borders. The market says everything is fine, but the hidden reality is things have been propped up to appear great again on the surface. I input all of the data from the last 88 years into my program to reveal where the next market top will occur from the March 2020 lows. I currently have the index in Minor wave C of Intermediate wave 2 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave 1 of Supercycle wave A of Grand Supercycle wave 2. This means the end of Minor wave C will also end Intermediate wave 2 and beginning a new chapter down. The data from the minor waves were entered into the program to find reversal points. Minor wave A lasted 53 trading days and moved 1041.27 points. Minor wave B lasted 15 trading days and shed 233.39 points. As of the close of trading on August 11, 2020, Minor wave C has lasted 30 days having seen a maximum upward move of 381.27 points. My program returned 110 market tops and 110 reversal dates. I currently have the market topping between August 7, 2020 (Minor wave C day 28) and September 10, 2020 (Minor wave C day 51). This range was determined by the following chart of potential lengths of Minor wave C. The specific reversal levels and reasons for reversal are found on my website mentioned in the signature block below.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
13
[TVIX] June Price Target Exit Points... You're Gonna Need ThisOk people, things are about ready to boil over here. Everyone is holding their breath and crossing their fingers that all the economic data dropping first week of June 'won't be as bad as expected' so the market will then rebound. It's all hopes and dreams though. It's gonna be worse, decent chance of MUCH worse. If we get to the end of June, and I have to sell off my $150 TVIX at $100 because it was all smooth sailing the whole month. So f*ckin be it. I'll hold my head high and take the L. But I aint missing a play that could pay up to 5x (proven just two months ago) within a couple weeks when fundamentals are the worst in a century and the global economy is running on hopes and dreams lol. What a setup. ---------------------- Today the price hit the lowest we'll see in awhile at $138 and climbed to $144 by close, that's the bottom. I also expect that we move out of the buy zone by June 5th and begin harvest preparations. You're probably reading this after the spike but here's the targets for the few active TVIX riders out there: Buy Targets: >$280 = Do not buy (risk/reward ratio starts looking substantially worse here) $205-$280 = Okay value $180-$205 = Good value $150-$180 = Great value <$150 = You're crazy like me Sell Targets based on Volume Profile of spike two months ago: $390 - Will sell 20% of my shares $600 - Will sell another 20% chunk $750 - Another 20% $920 - Another 20% Best Value - Final 20% trying to catch the peak :) If at any point a peak looks imminent, prior to the estimated peak here, will dump all. Not trying to be a hero here. Lets hope for a bountiful June harvest :).
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
6
[TVIX] 1D, 4H, 1H and 30M All Lined Up for ReferenceMostly reference purposes here. What an epic setup. Buy Signals: 1. RSI flipping from buy to sell on the 1D and 4H and holding closely to the sell dashed line in the 4H or 30M 2. OBV trend change, up or down in the 1D or 4H overall but here the 1H and 30M will give quicker signals of the trend change 3. 1D VPT as RSI flipping from buy to sell and 4h holding close to sell dashed line, 1H should hold to buy dashed line at start of uptrend, 30M should be very volatile crossing both dashed lines back and forth frequently. 4. MACD on the 30 and 1H breaking through zero (We've got 3 beautiful waves in both charts that are still waiting on a fourth due anytime *cough*June*cough*), MACD lines on 1D and 4H primed to break up too 5. POC trending 30M>1H>4H>1D (This ones tricky to dial in properly but that's the idea) There's a lot more there, just some zoomed perspective for all the TVIX riders out there.
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
1
Virus is spreading, markets are crashing, long Bitcoin!Long term bitcoin outlook Many much smarter people than me believe that as banks intensify their quantitative easing and rates go to 0, bitcoins case as a new new international monetary system stands stronger than ever. With futures going in backwardation and derivatives funding rewards longs, we could see bitcoin reaccumulate and bounce strongly towards a brighter future. Personally I'll be buying spot in levels bellow 5k and start leveraged longs after clear longer term bullish starts forming. Bitcoin reclaiming any previously lost support would be a signal for additional risk managed longs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by GodjoBTC