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Marketcycle

Black Swan Event: The Biggest Crypto Market Risk!In today’s article, we will be discussing a risk known as Black Swan Event. Now what is the Black Swan and why it is considered as the most unexpected event in the course of any economic crisis is the greater factor to be discussed. The most unexpected event that has the maximum possibility to occur in the market is called Black Swan, this term was first coined by NYU professor and economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The main attributes that shape the possibilities of Black Swan events: Unpredictability Potential Severities Widespread impact According to Taleb: A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. They are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly. Some believe that diversification may offer some protection when a black swan event does occur. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. Extrapolating, using statistics based on observations of past events is not helpful for predicting black swans, and might even make us more vulnerable to them. The last key aspect of a black swan is that as a historically important event, observers are keen to explain it after the fact and speculate as to how it could have been predicted. Such retrospective speculation, however, does not actually help to predict future black swans as these can be anything from a credit crisis to a war. What is the impact on Institutional markets? We know that somehow, we can use normal factors of prediction and probability over mass numbers of people like the result predicting based on Normal distribution curve, for such things, even the extrapolation method is not working. Hence Black Swan can take the market in any form that is not predefined, that can attack a market with several forms like crashing of prices and regulatory risk of digital exchanges. What are the two different types of Black Swan risk? Black Swan occurs within two types one is the positive impact and another one is a negative impact, now the inability to predict the accurate possibilities is the driving force behind the execution of the Black Swan event. Any clampdown on the trading of cryptocurrencies and other digital money can directly crash the prices of other currencies. The crackdown of Cryptocurrency exchanges by any third parties or other factors can also be counted as the Black Swan effect, many particular exogenous events can be forced to occur like: Inverse Volatility The crackdown of Crypto exchanges Regulatory risk of Crypto exchanges Low liquidity and low trading volume Having said that, 2022 has been the year of the “Black Swan” throughout the world of cryptocurrency. From the fall of LUNA to the insolvency of 3AC, Celsius, FTX and now BlockFi, the market has taken major hits in value and credibility. Each one of these events seemingly was viewed as a once in a lifetime event. To sum up, the Black Swan event is described in the following summarized manner: This event is so rare that it has many unknown possibilities occurring suddenly. Also, the impact is so huge that it can have a catastrophic effect. The hindsight conclusion if the prediction comes as true. Conclusion At last, one could conclude that many events could turn into a Black Swan in crypto trading such as, Network Congestion where everyone is rushing to have Ethereum and it subsequently raises the price of gas. In this case, when Black Swan occurs, the problem increases tenfold times and also this affects the liquidation process and also low-value transfers can simply attack the blockchain system. If you liked it, make sure to support with a like, follow and a comment! Best Regards, CryptoQueens.
Education
by Crypto_Queens_Official
23
The Ultimate Bitcoin Market Cycle Cheat SheetIn this post, I'll be providing an explanation on market cycles referring to specific time periods and fibonacci support and resistance for key lows and highs. This post is not financial advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. This post was inspired by @CryptoCon_ on twitter. Time Periods Explained - The chart may appear extremely messy, but let's break everything down one by one. - I first marked all November 28ths of every year on the chart, starting from 2012. - We can divide each cycle into a span of four years: - The first cycle lasting from Nov. 2012 to Nov. 2016, - The second cycle lasting from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020, - The third cycle lasting from Nov. 2020 to Nov. 2024, - and the fourth cycle beginning in Nov. 2024, ending in Nov. 2028. Again, keep in mind that this is an extremely speculative approach, based on the premise that what happened in the past, will continue to happen in the future in a similar manner. We can divide each of the cycles into 4 different phases. Phase 1: New All Time Highs - The first phase is the phase of a new all time high. - At the end of the first phase, Bitcoin marks its new all time highs. - Such was the case in 2013, 2017, 2021, and I expect it to be the case in 2025 as well. Phase 2: Bear Market - The second phase is the bear market phase. - After we see new all time highs, we start to see a decline. - In 2014, Bitcoin corrected 78% from its all time highs, - 85% from its all time highs in 2018, and 75% in 2022. Phase 3: Accumulation - This is a phase of accumulation. - However, this is not to say that we will only see sideways action. - From 2014 to 2015, we saw a classic price action of accumulation, - and from 2018 to 2019, we saw a textbook accumulation pattern, followed by an echo bubble. - However, it is imiportant to note that this echo bubble (or more specifically, its burst) is what set up the foundation for a massive bull rally that led to new all time highs. - According to this cycle, we are currently seeing Phase 3, where I expect a similar echo bubble to take place. I’ll elaborate more on the current status later. Phase 4: Recovery - This is the phase of recovery. This is where we know that the price has bottomed out already, and that we set off to rally towards new all time highs. - Interestingly enough, all Bitcoin halving events took place in the 4th phase of this cycle classification. Estimates for Cycle 4 - For the current cycle (cycle 4), I believe that the echo bubble thesis is in play. - The Fed cannot taper forever, and there is still enough liquidity to be injected into risky assets. - Despite Bitcoin moving from $16k to $23k in a matter of days, the interest from the general public is nonexistent. - I believe that a move to 30k is highly likely, and that depending on market situations, we may even see a move up to $45k in the end. Comparison of Past Echo Bubble - Let’s compare the current situation to that of the echo bubble in 2018-2019. - In 2018-2019, we saw Bitcoin rally 268% in an echo bubble. A move from $16k to $45k, today’s echo bubble, would account for a 211% move. - As for the degree of correction, in 2018-2019, we saw the price slash in half once again - a 56% downward move. - Taking that into account, and applying the same figure in today’s market situation, that would mean a correction from $45k to $23k. - If we trace fibonaccin lines based on this speculation, this gives us a target price of $105k per Bitcoin by 2025. - As for the bear market that will follow, we can expect a bottom to form around $36k, although it’s likely that prices will almost definitely hover below this level. Statistics - Let’s take a look at some patterns we can spot in terms of statistics: - In the first cycle, Bitcoin dropped 77.99% from its all time highs - In the second cycle, Bitcoin dropped 83.64% from its all time highs - In the third cycle, Bitcoin dropped 76.64% from tis all time highs - Assuming that Bitcoin drops 75-85% during the bear market after peaking at new all time highs, anticipating a 65% drop in 2026-2027 would be a conservative, yet realistic estimate. - As for the returns Bitcoin provided every cycle; - In the first cycle, Bitcoin delivered 43,236% returns from the lows to highs. - In the second cycle, it delivered 9,134%, which is a 78% reduced figure compared to the previous cycle. - In the third cycle, it delievered 2,102%, a 77% reduced figure compared to the previous cycle. - In the fourth cycle, the current cycle, if it reaches $105k all time highs, it would be delivering a 524% return from its lows, which is a 75% reduced figure compared to the third cycle. Conclusion In this post, I take a very rudimentary, speculative, yet simple and direct approach in analyzing Bitcoin’s cycle through this specific framework. This analysis aims to provide a general understanding of when things happen, and to what degree they take place. Based on this framework, I believe that we could see an echo bubble take place in 2023, with Bitcoin reaching $45k, before it corrects down to $23k. Around the end of 2023 to 2024, we would see a phase of recovery in which Bitcoin slowly crawls back up, until it reaches new all time highs of $105k in 2025 before correcting down below $36k in 2027. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
BNC:BLX
by Michael_Wang_Official
7
The "So-Called" Psychology of a Market Cycle!Greetings Dear Investors and Traders, today CryptoQueens, an educational post regarding the so-called Psychology of a Market Cycle. When making investment decisions, investors have a wide variety of tools at their disposal. While these tools can form the basis of a sound investment thesis, their effectiveness is limited by one’s emotions. Allowing emotions to dictate decisions is a common mistake made by many investors, yet they may not even realize it. People experience different emotions during these market cycles ranging from fear to greed. Below we will analyze, as well as you will find attached in the chart image the different emotions experienced by investors during market cycles which overwhelms the majority of the traders: Disbelief: This phase happens after the bottom has been hit. There is a sense of disbelief among investors about the rally. They believe just like it happened in the past few months, the markets will fall again. Their fear of making another mistake causes them to miss the optimal window to re-enter the market. Optimism: During this phase, the realization dawns on most of the investors that the rally is real. Investing during this phase if stocks are chosen well can give good returns. Enthusiasm: This is the time when the majority of investors are convinced about the market rally, therefore market demand rise. They believe that now is the time to be fully invested. Some naysayers still don’t believe in the market rally and advise caution. Euphoria: This is the phase where there is irrational exuberance in the markets. Investors share a collective dopamine as they think that they are genius because they made a fortune. It is advisable to stay cautious during this phase. Overconfidence/Greed: Investors continue to increase their positions despite high volatility. If you buy during this phase, you are sure to lose money, whatever you buy. Anxiety: Fear sets in, as losses begin to mount. Investors believe that the dip is taking more time than expected. This is the the moment when people are notified with margin calls due to the recent market fall. Anxiety kicks in. Denial: The herd ignores the market signs as market demand weakens. They believe that since their investments are in great companies, they will bounce back. Panic: Herd mentality takes over and market participants rushes to sell leading to widespread selling even at losses. This is a good time to buy extremely selectively for the long term as it may be very difficult to know even for well-informed investors whether we are in the denial phase, panic phase or capitulation phase. Capitulation: Market Participants accepts their losses and completely exit the market. They are selling close to the bottom of the cycle. Agony/Anger: Steep losses take a psychological factor in many investors and they start to blame the government, or anything correlated, perceiving it as market manipulation. Depression: This is the period when investors believe that their retirement savings are gone and their financial security is affected. They even start blaming themselves for investing. However, markets inevitably starts to recover. Conclusion: As an investor, you need to recognize these signals and never lose sight of the bigger picture. It is like Warren Buffett once mentioned. Be scared when others are greedy and greedy when others are afraid. Therefore, keep an eye on the fundamentals and behavioral factors that influence the market and always remain ahead of the game. Make sure you include this in your trading plan before to take action on it. If you liked it, make sure to support with a like, follow and a comment! Best Regards, CryptoQueens.
Education
by Crypto_Queens_Official
38
The Psychology Of A Market CycleThe psychology of a market cycle refers to the emotional and psychological states that investors and traders go through as they react to market conditions. Here is a short summary of each stage of the market cycle: 🔵 Disbelief: At this stage, market participants are skeptical about the potential for a market rally or recovery. They may be hesitant to invest or trade, as they do not believe that the market has the potential to improve. 🔵 Hope: As market conditions begin to improve, investors and traders may start to feel more hopeful about the future. They may start to see opportunities for profit and become more willing to take risks. 🔵 Belief: At this stage, market participants start to believe that the market will continue to improve. They may become more confident in their investment decisions and become more willing to hold onto their positions for longer periods of time. 🔵 Euphoria: As the market continues to rise, investors and traders may become overly optimistic and start to believe that the market will continue to rise indefinitely. This can lead to excessive risk-taking and overconfidence. 🔵 Anxiety: As market conditions start to deteriorate, investors and traders may become anxious about the potential for losses. They may start to question their investment decisions and become more hesitant to take risks. 🔵 Denial: As market conditions continue to worsen, some investors and traders may start to deny that the market is in a downturn. They may continue to hold onto their positions in the hope that the market will recover. 🔵 Panic: At this stage, market participants may become panicked about the potential for further losses. They may start to sell their positions in a rush to get out of the market. 🔵 Capitulation: As market conditions reach their lowest point, investors and traders may give up hope and sell their positions, even at a loss. This is known as capitulation. 🔵 Anger: After the market has bottomed out, some investors and traders may feel angry about their losses and the perceived market manipulation or wrongdoing that they believe caused the market crash. 🔵 Depression: After experiencing significant losses, some investors and traders may feel depressed and lose motivation to engage in further investment or trading activities. 🔵 Disbelief: As market conditions begin to improve again, some investors and traders may return to a state of disbelief and skepticism about the potential for a sustained market rally. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
Trading Series – The ManagementMost of us will spend about 90% of our time thinking of what to buy and at what price we should get in. In fact, that is only 10% of work done. Focus on this scenario instead - “After getting into a position, how are we going to manage it with either a calculated loss when market go against us or how should we take profits when market perform better than our expectation? As usual we will do a few case studies on how I manage my positions for this year. Today’s content: 1. 90% of us – Spending too much time on “Getting in” 2. Steps to manage our trades after an entry? If you have been following, today’s is the 7th tutorial in our Trading Series: 1. “The buy strategy” 2. “The sell strategy” 3. “Developing long & short-term view” 4. “Choosing between the time frame” 5. “The entry” 6. “The exit” 7. “The management” Example 1 Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 point = $0.50 1 point = $2 10 points = $20 100 points = $200 1,000 points = $2,000 Example 2 E-Mini Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 point = $5 1 point = $20 10 points = $200 100 points = $2,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by konhow
USD JPY -Awaiting the fresh buying zoneG'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Long due to the overall monthly demand in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. Long term investment strategy rated, bullish. Monthly Price has established a zone of interest, where price has reached the 1998 Departure level. Yet to test the completed supply of 1987 Supply zone as marked on the chart. The 152 level was tapped which looking at the QTR chart which highlights this easier on the chart. This supply zone is a fresh touch - showing a strong level as the sell imbalance has reacted upon the Daily, weekly chart. This fresh supply to many was not a level for-seen for many traders, however the technical correction now is a strong pivot position as marked. As the sequence has not completed (overall long) price is using this sell opportunity to now look for new zones for purchasing (especially on the weekly and monthly). - Three month chart - this assists here with Weekly Price has established a technical zone from a fresh supply in place from 152-146. Although the opportunity here is a 600pip zone. Short sellers will have taken over in the smaller time zones. Again reference to the three month chart against the weekly below - Weekly/QTR chart. The weekly distal has been established - with the 152.00 being the stop loss or slightly above for sells. The left chart - weekly shows the key retest of the QTR zone and successfully rejects this level. Looking for buys on the chart offers two zones - 1. The PCP or FL demand ranging between 135-130.5 (est). Now having this zone in place - imbalance traders will need to follow the rules of a break of curve - clear rejection upon a reactive wick or await an engulfing move in favour of a squeeze or (descending triangle), consolidation and or a pattern interchangeable of both. The second zone of interest here offers the combo box of the monthly and weekly zones - pointed out with the 'Green' eclipse and the monthly zone. For a market structural cycle - price can net out here (revert to chart - with the Fibonacci extension which points towards the imbalance alignment. Weekly/QTR Chart - Fibonacci Extension Daily chart The daily shows the price is now shifting from the pivot point from 137.5 (est) - creating now a bullish reaction towards the range top of 142.** this will be the prime range of establishing a bull and sell position within a range formation. The down trend is still prominent with down and right on the overall short term basis from the from chart with the daily supply zones added with a price looking to pivot towards 141.3X area which is the next zone of interest from the view of a lower high formation. A Bearish chart option - where price can break the pivot. Adding Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
by LupaCapital
AUD NZD - Approaching the next phaseG'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Long due to the overall monthly demand in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. Monthly timeframe The monthly shows a strong test of the structure back in 2013 - where price has tested the September 2013 monthly candle 'close'. Since this structure high, price has had a strong sell off with a large engulfing sell. Review below for the breakdown from the Fresh nested supply towards the demand zone. Weekly Timeframe Four Day in conjunction with Fibonacci extension The four day has shown the similar zone which aligns nicely with the weekly. Note- here that price has provided a clear sell off which has broken through and on the daily provided a break and retest. This would be the moment for a secondary sell could be placed with a confirmation on the lower timeframe(s). Again structure provides a retest of the previous 'resistance' zone which aligns nicely with the End of August zone. Daily Chart Awaiting the reactive tap and then a further confirmation using the 8 hour or daily if preferred. Price maynot reach the desired Daily, three day cross imbalance zone. Upon a confirm - if price fails to provide engulfing moves - then expect a final push to complete the structure pattern within the arrival imbalance. From here, price will need to test the curve and break the high curve allowing long term trades to take place. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Long
by LupaCapital
Great Example of a Market Cycle with FX pair AUD/USD 4 HourIf you want to know and learn about market structure then you all must learn the market cycles. Once you master the cycles in the markets you can effectivley learn the directions of the markets. This applies to any market and i've marked the different phases in which the market cycle occurs. AUDUSD and basically all the other FX pairs are great examples of this! These structures also apply to smaller time frames and if you zoom out your charts and you have a good eye, you can spot it and take advantage of this! Here's a link to the Investopedia Market Cycle page www.investopedia.com
by JasonLeighton
2
FOOLS RALLY! $doge down!DOGE has had its peak! it will have a fools rally and then drop! I AGREE WITH BUY THE DIP; but buy the right dip! NO one wants expired CHIP DIP! The market cycle psychology chart tells me that this is entering to a fools rally next then a downtrend that is harsh! AFTER IT PLUMMETS to below 0.133USDT I will not be buying the dip! THE DIP IS IN THE 0.12-0.133 range . I will be gradually accumulating my position and keep in mind the coins that are tied to the trends, such as $ELON and $DC. $DC might be able to separate from this trend. BUT $ELON I don't think will run independently on its on momentum. DOGECHAIN will be interesting to see what hype is generated from releases on the chain. Its going to be a great year! 2023! Happy trading and don't get greedy or panic! *This is my personal thought and not financial advice! I am not endorsing cryptocurrency and there are risks with investing. Always do you own research! #DYOR* -Cryptonightowl
Short
by Cryptonightowl
possible scenarios for goldIf gold is still in a downtrend and has really ended the wave on 1614, we are now in a b c correction. Wave a went to small market cycle wave iv (1730 as we were expecting 2 weeks ago), and if we really ended wave b, on 0.76 fib of wave a length, i told you 1657 and 1640 are IMPORTANT levels, it rejected yesterday from it. If we see a daily closing candle above the 1660’s market structure, we can correct until the downtrend again, or until previous high a wave, or, if we see more strength signals for gold, till the bigger market cycle wave v (1800) before resuming the bigger downtrend. If not, gold will stay in the bearish channel to retest the last low at least ( reasonable with us dollar power lately ). Goodluck, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by joe-abdallah
Deeper Network DPR Crypto Greed & FearDeeper Network DPR Crypto Psychology of a Market Cycle Greed & Fear Index Chart Good & Bad News: "All Genesis nodes will have one rewards halving event on Dec. 1st, 2022. Genesis will continue until Aug. 28th, 2023, then enter into EZ Mining directly." What this means is a Ter8 was getting 90% reward but it will be reduced to 43% for a Genesis. So they are forcing all those people who originally staked in at a Ter7 or Ter8 to unstake there one device on Dec. 21, 2022 and either sell there DPR or to purchase additional miners an start EZMining instead with a 60% reward at a Ter8 level. By Dec 1st the price of DPR could be around .0045 on a low end, which means you may need to purchase 1 or 2 extra miner from Deeper to get a higher reward amount above a Genesis. All those who staked in from a Ter6 Level or lower are getting a great rewards for a little bit longer. (I am not sure if they are changing this again) News: There will likely be a similar crash to the 1990's Dot Com bubble crash coming very soon, with the Alt Coin Bubble that is going on now. Only the strongest Alt Coins will survive. Will Deeper Network get there act together to maintain there support thru out there community or will they continue to twist there words around forcing there supporters to look to only Bitcoin or Ethereum . So far Deeper Network on its own initiatives, is pushing itself farther away from the top ranking alto coins. Bearish News: Deeper Network is not a Decentralized Platform but a Centralized Platform, They currently use the Polkadot Blockchain Governance Platform which if working 100% is not technically decentralized as per it's maker Gavin Woods. But Deeper Network has a hidden backdown open to bypass all approvals for programing which would other wise need to be approved by who ever holds the most DPR basically at the end of the day as a Council Member by voting yourself in on the Governance Website Page made by Polkadot . At any point in time the Council Members or Deeper Network with there back door open can take you DPR out of your wallet if they want thru programing codes directly by Deepers DEVs or voting as a Council Member as a Motion. Since Deeper has the most DPR it will be controlled internally in a scenes making it centralized at the end of the day. Bearish News: Aug. 5 & 6, 2022 Deeper Network has turned down an invitation to showcase at Sir Richard Branson’s Block Chain Summit on Necker Island at the Neckerverse Showcase for a chance to pitch to the Virgin Impact team and other global heavyweight investors. The reason from Deeper Network "Cheryl, Russell and I ( Eric ) seriously considered attending the gathering but decided it was best to focus on exchange listings, research & development, and new product deadlines instead." This is the worst mistake they could of made during this bearish time period. Bearish News: Possible Token Crash Starting around September 6, 2022 thru the next 6 months, investors getting Deeper ERC-20 DPR returned to them who bought in at .006cents to .02cents. There was 2Billion token allocated to sell but they only advertise 1Billion being sold. DPR given out already to the investors that crashed the coin the first time (estimated 40% investment returned already), there is an estimated amount of 2 to 4 Million DPR being released each day to their investors for the next 6 months starting in September 2022 thru March 2023. I foresee another massive upset that Deeper Network will hush the investors by kicking people out of there Deeper Network community social groups when people complain and get upset like what happened when they lock up the investors DPR the first time without paying them back as was promised in their smart contract that had a hidden back door in the smart contract to reprogram it and to lock back up again. This is a lack of trust that I don’t think Deeper Network will every out live. This is the finial contract agreement after being changed multiple times with out permission from the investors. Bearish News: the Seed Investors who bought in at .003cents were told this "Your DPR is locked until tier 1 CEX listing, then unlocked 1 year after tier 1 CEX listing. Linear distribution over 1 year. If DPR is not listed on tier 1 CEX within 2 years of Jan 1, 2023, unlock starts on Jan 1, 2025 then linear distribution over a year. You will definitely get your DPR however, you'll need to wait a little longer for the benefit of the whole. Deeper Network appreciates your understanding and apologizes for any inconvenience this may have caused." This was confirmed by a Volunteer Mod. -Crypto Whale Information: See the Whale news on my channel for their Wallet address & Location, as you can track for yourself who is a true supporter and who is a dumper…… (AMA said Whales are allowed in the project now) - Deeper Chain Community Governance - Currently being controlled directly by Deeper Network, not by the Community but thru a back door in the program (Verified on AMA) I don't foresee them giving the governance to the community within the next year or so because they like to be able to have fully control without have to wait for voting approvals, because the programing is far from being perfect.............. - 7 Validator Nodes on Deeper Chain, 7 have been verified to be in control of by Deeper Network DEVs, apparently they can control votes on the Governance with their locked DPR rewards- Wallet Addresses 1st 5C4vNVT5pDroqufEtXKYp3RKrNXVTHk9yqTeNNUSnJ6EbGGY ; 2nd 5CJDFR5RCMxPwVdzgH6JA9D7M625FEFKrdsJG1JnQVQdQkH2 ; 3rd 5HCG6MvAhYgLZdPoD1BVHEjgKee9n4AhMLKfq64VLiM4znuU; 4th 5Fug4ra4oJaCZQzUZ5C5vNaWBHUujKwGgu5NmZtcDwXMtsCp ; 5th 5Fe7kQ2kunvxDzd1f1AFUuLDPnd8uzqrbgQ4Q4zLHNeC82xD ; 6th 5CaViidoJL9qL22pvdVfpGkaE34kH7cH79rTemVGpUqddaaZ ; 7th 5F95SXGB5dj6TpcKzPGZRCXMsoBLcgg7nmhZxSC5sHCHdDx7 ; Deeper has said they will burn the DPR from the 7 Validators but the miners do not know if they can trust Deeper Network to keeping there word and if it will be 100% Burn or just 1% like everything else........ Founder & Head of the Society Governance Platform Wallet Address: 5GViXCfq22KUdWYK9E6bFZXYJWY7v4EVKJz3mgn6vGGPU1iT this is a Genesis Gold Ter 8 out of the United Kingdom. This wallet seems to be programed to dump coins after there mined across the bridge to sell on and exchange. We will be following this wallet, stay tuned for updates................... -Deeper Chain DPR Crypto Burn Wallet #1: (Warning this is a subject Deeper does not like to talk about) There has not been a routine burn setup yet promised by Deeper to fight inflation . The only burning is est 21DPR perday equivalent to about .80cents per day!!! from the Validator transactions which they are calling a “Routine Burning or Every Gas Fee”. The old burning was every 7 days and burnt all the treasury wallet. Then they slowed it down to every 24 Days thru the Treasury and to burn only about 1% now. There is credit burning set up for the miners, which is false advertisement because they only burn 1% of the money paid to buy credit to increase mining rewards. The rest of the money is added to the treasury wallet for Deeper to pay their DEVs instead. Waiting for Deeper Network to provide Burn Wallet Address for all three Blockchains so the community can monitor what they are being told. Talking about this subject will get you band and removed from Deeper Network Social media accounts so be aware………… Deeper Network has responded to my concern about this saying "that 1% of the treasury wallet is burned each day" but I don't believe that's what happens, I believe that only 1% of each transaction that is transferred to the Treasury wallet is then sent into the burn wallet only during the transaction process, not that 1% of the treasury wallet total is burned. So once the funds go into the Treasury wallet once the 1% has been taken out, the remaining funds are no longer programed to be burned. (...to be determined) At the moment it is unknown how to see a total burn amount from this wallet but you can see how much DPR will be burned in the next 7 day burn period. -Deeper Chain DPR Crypto Burn Wallet #2: Deeper Network has not provided the wallet address from the burning during the Pico sale so the community can monitor the wallet activity. (I believe they did a fake burn because they did not even realize they had an internal burn wallet nor did they know they had a Treasury Wallet, I believe they just made a random what address and sent it there. But Deeper will not provide the process they used) - Deeper Token ECR-20 Blockchain Ethereum Burn Wallet Address - Deeper Network has not provided the wallet address from the burning during the Pico sale so the community can monitor the wallet activity. - Deeper Token BSC Binance Smart Chain Burn Wallet Address - Deeper Network has not provided the wallet address, nothing would be in the wallet address that i would be aware of if it exist yet - Deeper Chain Treasury Wallet Address: This is how Deeper Network makes income from internal network transactions 5EYCAe5ijiYfyeZ2JJCGq56LmPyNRAKzpG4QkoQkkQNB5e6Z (At the moment this is funded by the left over Validator Transactions & Burn DPR for Credit Score Increase, ect. 1% of Transactions going into the wallet are Burned every 24 days, this is confirmed by looking at the programing on Github Deeper-Chain; Actions; Branches; modify treasury burnning rate - Polkadot Parachain for Deeper Chain – not yet, no future plans at the moment (Verified by Polkadot Support) -10 Billion DPR Total: 6 Billion DPR will be mined within 25years (Verified on AMA); & 4 Billion DPR Belong to Deeper & Investors -Location of Deeper Network servers where VPN data is stored: Unverified, Programmers working from China, ect. , Government Jurisdiction over VPN data information unknown (As per Deeper User Policy to have to agree to Logs are kept by them internally), Privacy Policy VPN info shows data is kept by Deeper Network, time period kept unknown. Do not know why Deeper Network is not Transparent with this information like other VPN providers. And or what will be there main goal with this data kept. - Deeper Network VPN / DPN equipment concerns: They say they do not keep logs of records of your internet access BUT!!!!! When you login to the device for the first time it makes you approve there two privacy agreements first. Terms and Condition of Use agreement under point Prohibited and restricted uses point #25 say : “We shall have the right… to monitor User Content”; The second agreement you must approve is the Deeper Network Privacy Policy under Data we Collect says “We may receive access to basic personal information from your social network accounts should you register or sign onto such services using Deeper Network Products or Services” (Why in the world is Deeper trying to collect your personal information?????????, also would they not also be able to see your banking information then...), then under section Data Retention it says “We will keep records containing personal data….. as maybe required by applicable laws (So then which governments laws are you under because there are countries that require no data collected) at the end of the day Deeper Network is not a Decentralized VPN because your data is collected in Deeper Networks Servers and Deeper Does not allow the Miners with the Exit Nodes for the VPN service to erase the VPN data on there own devices, even if their country allows for no logs to be collected. Will Deeper Network change their policy’s to be in harmony with what they told their community of NO LOGS/DATA KEEP BY DEEPER and ONLY DATA COLLECTED ON EACH EXIT NODE, apparently, they changed their minds…… Pico - At the moment the Pico is only good for mining with a Staked credit score, if the Pico has its own Public IP and is connected for months without being disconnected it will currently not get 10mb of traffic each day to get an increased organic credit score as an exit node, the network currently will choose a faster path out thru a Mini instead. So the Pico at the moment is not a good mining device if that's what you bought it for organically. This has been confirmed. Update: It seems like they are trying to fix this issue. If the device to left on for an extended amount of time it will work on the block chain but will not allow for personal internet access. -Company Info: -Deeper Network INC of the Marshal Islands (no office location there currently) Crypto Currency company that was set up as a shell company, filed on March 8, 2019 Entity number 100333 (Legal system mixed legal system of US and English common law, customary law, and local statutes; International law organization participation accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction with reservations; accepts ICCt jurisdiction) -Deeper Network Inc of Delaware USA (no office location in Delaware currently) Software Developer/ VPN / DPN , Entity 201816910575 6/14/2018, EIN Tax ID# 841835438, State ID 04799167 This is the company that controls everything. -Location Of Head Quartiers Office (5200 Great America Pkwy, Santa Clara , California, 95054) : The main temp office rental location no longer exists that is advertised and on Entity Documents, the location is currently enmity and abandoned, supposedly working remotely from home and out of a shipping warehouse since the past two years+ or longer, unable to verify from the last trip to California. No new permanent office location currently that I am aware of that has been verified. Even from there past video of this office location you can tell it was just a temp location as if it was like one of those rent a cubical to work at temporary location. (A lot of people have come and gone from the head ranks or moved DOWN to different positions within the company, High Turnover Rate, not sure if currently accurate) Chief Executive Officer: Mao Liu ( aka also known as Michael Liu); China / California (Runs another Company in California Fam Capital which is not registered in the State of California to work in the State) Chief Technology Officer: Hui Liu ( aka also known as Russell Liu); San Jose, California, USA Chief Operations Officer: Xiaoshuai Liu ( aka also known as Cheryl Liu); Maple Ridge, British Columbia, Canada Chief Marketing Officer: Position Open, last person quite and moved on............... Contracts: Chao Ma Secretary/Chief Financial Officer: Xiaoshuai Liu ( aka also known as Cheryl Liu); Maple Ridge, British Columbia, Canada Corporate Officer: Adam Wolfe Lei Chang; Saratoga, California Chief Branding Officer: Yinan S. Software Developer: Arturo Jimenez Product manager: Kain Xu Deeper Network if you feel any of this information is inaccurate please reach out to me and provide me proof showing something different and I will update it on my next post. Information is gathered thru the Deeper Network Community Chats.
by C-J_
1
LUNC - The potential road to recoveryG'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. LUNC Burn 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Short due to the overall monthly supply in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - shorts are held. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bullish move. The Technicals at play during the current time will be extremely dynamic - however the pathway has established a strong demand. Now the slow process is gearing up. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily White = Structural move down Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Daily chart Price has been squeezed once the floor and has also provided analyzing structure where a Symmetrical pattern had created the strong upside which was presenting itself. The latest - price has created a Pivot demand for a single candle creation - at 0.00017XX lows. The previous supply had also established a pivot single candle rejection from the 0.007X and rejected. Potential channel breakout Structure left - does not provide much help in this instance where the Floor Cap has been created. However key takeaways on the Four day Demand Price has established a nice pivoted demand which on the 2-4 day chart has indicated a PCP zone which is now a FL zone (subject to price action and confirmation rules). The pink line represents the imbalance where price has successfully closed out with the high at 0.00017XXX The Four day chart eradicates the noise - all be it at current the price action is still currently forming so this technical analysis is still early, however a strong floor has been created and price action. The technical patterns thus far have created a 'Strong engulfing candle' which allows the impulsive pattern and a great slow tail off in a corrective pattern forming, allowing the low to form which aligns with structure (looking left). Key lows - have formed at the weekly zone. Weekly Weekly candle of pure drama where the collapse occurred with failure to peg the stabilize UST and Luna with collateral as BTC holdings. The minting and burning of converting Terra to Luna also contributed to the price collapse with a death spiral with the ever increasing supply being created. The balancing mechanism provided a clear imbalance which needed addressing but failed to be maintained. This has lead to the new Luna Classic token to be established with holders converting previous Luna Tokens being converted into Luna Classic or LUNC. Token Burn tax of 1.2% "Terra community has passed Proposals 3568 and 4159, which will introduce a 1.2% tax burn for on-chain transactions of LUNC and USTC on Terra Classic network." - creating this burn taxation upon deposits, withdrawals will allow the overall supply of tokens circulated to create a scarcity as now a finite ever reducing supply is in effect. The demand creation from said shrinking supply availability like BTC possesses will in turn create a bullish demand for holders and in the long term price action will be reflected to price points (all be it, target prices will vary) due to a multitude of variables such as, inflows, volume traded, staking of coin supply to remove from circulation, time, holders to maintain longevity, supply reduction and transparency). www.binance.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
LLong
by LupaCapital
4
XAG USD - Great levels to come - trade accordinglyImportant - review the XAU XAG below - the analysis is playing out nicely thus far since March 2022. G'day, Previous analysis attached below, please review these. Comments are always appreciated. Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a supply and demand imbalance analysis, where trades are taken from certain zones- based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, however, as outline below - will be buying until the OL, offers a highly probable zones where a confirmed sell break and a confirmed sell from the Original level. Starting the supply and demand imbalance. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are in a bearish (positional trade). Also note, sentiment changes as does entry points, stop losses and profit taking points. This chart is not dynamic once submitted so keep this in mind. Updates are dynamic however. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink= Three, Four Day Orange = Daily White - Zone of interest - time frame dependent of above. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly Silver and Gold has seen a large sell off from the imbalance created between $25-28 FL. The reason for this zone looking left showed a strong rejection monthly wick and a corrective phase over two subsequent months, allowing price to look for a pivot point tapping a weekly zone (use Fibonacci tool to align, using high $30.63 to bottom $23.96). FL level on the weekly will break To understand why this zone will break is for two reasons; Despite being a Fresh zone, the structure below has also been untested. Following the reactive departure height of the OL below between $12-15, has offered a high probability of rejection and using the zone as a base in the formation of a Drop base Drop. The imbalance here can allow lower time frame reactive buys from the level indicated using a weekly. However, the price action to this point has showed (looking at the structure left) of a poor price action and strong departure, meaning the sells have no obstacle when returning to the level formed. Using the rules of touches allows the buys to be placed. Rules applied here upon a second touch (as of 29th august start) shows a second tap of the weekly zone. Expect a lower low to be placed. Four day The four day chart has shown a clear picture of a squeeze pattern, however noting on the four day a falling wedge pattern has occurred, creating an interesting moment where price can break out from a deep reactive test - moving price back up towards $26 as a fresh level. However, do not trade until a confirmation rule applies. The high curve (downward trendline) has shown no probability of turning bullish - the reason is the Weekly and Monthly structure shows the pathway for the arrival destination heading towards the OL at the Monthly. Falling wedge - optional counter trade Only where a reactive departure is created and breakout forms. Daily Clear downward sell into the weekly FL, offering a deep corrective sell - note, price is now within the weekly zone and a DCA buy will now be a strong optional move as price is now considered "cheap" relative to Gold. Technicals, (scroll out) and look the structure left - price needs to move towards the weekly arrival point of $17.5 est - where price can pivot as here lies the price action zone which makes up the weekly departure move. Completing a head and shoulder pattern formation and will extend bearish into the desired move. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves - compound where necessary. Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
TVC:SILVER
by LupaCapital
1
LINK USD - Are you in?G'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Rose = Four Day, 3Day Orange = Daily Monthly Price action on the monthly has fallen back down to the previous al time high double top As indicated by the zone which aligns with the FEB/March 2020 wick highs. Bi-Monthly Low curve, shows that price will now begin to break this bi-monthly TL (review bi-monthly chart above) once a lower timeframe offers the departure confirmation on a daily break and retest. The zone chosen here on the half departure of the engulfing candle is used with the strong magnet as this indicates a higher probability chance of pricing interacting with this zone. Weekly The weekly zone has now been tested and has held with buyers guarding $5.00 level. The overall monthly level shows a strong imbalance, yet to be tested so price can breach towards the monthly before creating a reactive wick. To look for a change in structure, the current consolidative range found on the weekly, four day and daily is now offering a build up for long opportunities. The daily has provided a Fresh zone where longs can be taken. The curve is now needing a clean 2x departure following the rules of a reactive wick, spinning top or doji candle. This will be confirmed by a daily close. Fresh Weekly zone Four day Range It's clear the range of this structure is in a strong build up zone for creating a long opportunity and with a confirmation, further sell down towards <$4. The probability of how price consolidation and price action is forming here has created great fresh zones. the curve is yet to be broken, so as price heads towards a symmetrical triangle pattern, this will enable us with a pattern to form. Keep in mind alternative patterns such as flags and price skewing towards the high curve instead of the low curve. Daily Fresh zone as highlighted in Orange, sitting above the white OL zone. Expecting price to now establish a higher low in the chart formation based on structure. Buying upon a reactive tap or a deep corrective move, forming the strategy rules in looking for a confirm of departure. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
COINBASE:LINKUSD
by LupaCapital
2
EURUSD in the BOX !Hi dear friends; According to the two falling equal lags that you can see in the chart left side (two-piece spike), now I think we are in the trading range of the market cycle after the descending channel. On the other hand, we can see the price second encounter to the top of the trading range also, it seems that the double top has been forming, and the price can fall to the lowest part of the box. I will be waiting for the confirmation of this double top in different time frames. The news from the Federal Reserve indicates an increase in interest rates also. I think that the Euro will lose resistance soon! Cordial regards.
Short
by ali5adeghi
EURUSD Short to demandJust off the strength of the fact that a downswing under the slow MA (in yellow) hasn't come for over 3 days. Prices have been slowly pushing higher, but yesterday we saw a big rejection of the regression line (in blue). Please forgive all of the craziness on the chart, it's for an automated strategy I'm working on. I see price breaking through the slow MA, whether it stays down there, I don't know but that looks like where we're heading. We'll see if price can pull that green MA below it.
Short
by NeoDaNomad