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Marketcycle

Psychology of a Market Cycle Applied (CARDANO's representation)Above is a comparison of the Psychology of the market cycle from Wall St. Cheat Sheet (originally developed and posted by Satoshi Nakamoto, the cryptic father of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and, arguably, deserves the title of 'Father of Cryptocurrency ADA's current price action/movement. Currently, I see two possibilities: 1) We are in the end of the DISBELIEF phase, where a slight pull back occurs before the optimism/belief/thrill stages appear. 2) We may be experiencing the depression dip before building up to the "Hope" phase were a small pull back occurs before a big breakout. Given the effects of the tumultuous socio-economic environment created by COVID along with the unprecedented flooding of the Alt/DeFi/NFT market (ranging from both revolutionary blockchain technologies to almost useless meme coins like Shib or the SQUID, named as reference to Squid Games show). It would be remiss of me not to further mention the major effects the global political environment has rendered. Issues range from China's crypto collapse (starting with mining and then finally fully banning the use of them) to Kazakhstan's power and internet outages . Together, these provide an answer to a concept that seems to escape even the most astute technical traders: Although the use of statistically oriented indicators proves effective in theory, the patterns and signals we know to be effective tools today will slowly change in the the way they provide signals for traders. If the picture was the "average," then the actual market provides the source of "standard deviations" we see in price action evolution, both within a single asset's historical rendering and between assets that move closely.
by PapaBear95
DXY CAPITULATION PENDING A WEEKLY CLOSEAfternoon people, Thanks for taking the time to check out my Technical analysis, much appreciated. Constructive comments are always encouraged. DXY has enjoyed a lot of strength in recent weeks, strangely baffling seeing as since 2020 the supply of USD has increased by 30%+. There is now more Dollars in existence than have ever been, yet according to recent strength it would seem people still trust the Dollar. It seems like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. The dollar is weak, it has been since Nixon unpegged it from the Gold Standard, thus sealing its fate as a fiat currency. History shows us how it ends for "world reserve currencies", the cycle is around every 100 years. Guess how long the Dollar has been in power for ;) Price attempted to breakout to the upside last week, completing the impulsive move from 94.56 to 96. However the .5 fib held and sellers stepped in causing a considerably big wick. Indicating buyers are struggling to break through the fibonacci levels that are acting as resistance. we closed with a huge wick on the weekly. I'm now waiting for a weekly close below the aforementioned levels to indicate a continuation to the downside. This adds further confluence to my idea posted earlier in regards to Bitcoin. It would seem Bitcoin has found its bottom and we should now be expecting Bitcoin to start moving towards my 233K targets. Once DXY starts collapsing, the downside targets at the D ext. are 86 & 82 respectively. It is my belief that we will be seeing the Dollar collapse as Bitcoin goes on its parabolic blow off top phase of the market cycle (something we haven't seen yet). Regardless of how far Bitcoin goes, it needs a DXY collapse to do so. Similar to 2017. So far Bitcoin is inversely correlated with DXY. Observed today we can see weakness in the DXY has led to Bitcoins price rising and therefore the rest of the crypto market across the board. This is just the beginning. Don't be disillusioned, when Bitcoin does pullback, which it will. This will be a great buying opportunity. Be patient & ENJOY the show. Remember to take profits as you go and scale out. We don't need to pick tops. No one ever went broke taking profits. Happy trading, Big Love
TVC:DXY
by PrinceParisOfTroy
1
Market Structure Simplified It is easy to get confused with overflowing information about market structure in the trading world. To simplify things we have come up with a way of analysing market structure simply by marking each high or low. In this particular example, you can see that higher lows were being created all the way down the bearish trend, so we knew that it was a seller's market UNTIL we got our break of structure . When the BOS became apparent, we began to shift our attention to the possibility of reversals and used our magic tool, the Fibonacci. This technique can be used in any trend, try it for yourselves! Please, support this post with a like and comment!
Education
by AlkalineFX
84
"This Time Is Different"Based on this chart we are currently in the complacency stage. The description fits quite well for the overall market sentiment. For months now we have heard about how we are in a much needed correction for the next great run up. Think of all the emotions that you experienced from the March crash to the May top. Many of us have felt the optimism, belief, thrill, euphoria, and now the complacency. Do not be a fool and fall for the "This Time Is Different" narrative. People will say this time is different because of "institutional investors, countries adoptoption, etc." Do not fall for it.
Short
by Nutty_Trader
26
💡🎓1929-2031: The Fractal Macro Economic Expansion Cycle🎓💡The 2 major Expansion Cycles of the 20th Century, both expanded exactly +2509%. & both over exactly 18 Years from ATH Breakout!! In this analysis, I compare the size and duration of the 2 major economic expansions cycles of the 20th Century, identifying the key components of each individual cycle to draw Observations, Parallels and Predictions with the 3rd major economic expansion cycle currently happening in the 21st Century. Observations; All 3 Macro Economic Cycles have 4 key Components; Correction A. Crash, Recession & Recovery Expansion Phase 1; B. Breakout from ATH C. Double Micro Wedge Expansion Phase 2 D. Single Macro Wedge Parallels; The 2 completed Expansion Cycles (1 & 2) of the 20th Century both have exactly the same traits; 1. Both start with a Correction: Crash, Recession & Recovery (of varying lengths / %) 2. Both expanded by exactly 2509% by the ATH / Next Correction, compared to previous Low (previous correction) 3. Both expansions lasted exactly 18 years from breakout of previous ATH to next ATH prior to correction 4. Both expansions were broken into 2 Phases of exactly 9 years each , defined by the same following characteristics: a. Phase 1: First 8 years of expansion - Breakout of from ATH, succeeded & Double Micro Wedge b. Phase 2: Second 8 years expansion - A Single Macro Wedge Expansion Cycle 1 & 2 Details Expansion Cycle 1: +2509% / 219 Bars ATH Breakout: 1954 to Correction: 1972 (18 Years) Previous ATH: 1929 Previous Market Low: 1932 Expansion Cycle 2: +2509% / 217 Bars ATH Breakout: 1982 to Correction: 2000 (18 Years) Previous ATH: 1972 Previous Market Low: 1974 Prediction: Expansion Cycle 3 started in 2013, with a Break out from Previous ATH, that was quickly succeeded by a Double Micro Wedge, all leading up to today (September 2021), which is roughly the end of a Expansion Phase 1 of 9 Years (half of 18 Year historical Expansion duration) Expansion Cycle 3; Phase 2 will start in 2022 and last until 2031, during which we could expect to see a major wedge form within the market, combined with a exponential expansion to reach a Market ATH of +2509% in 2031 (compared to previous market low in 2009) that will catalyse the next major market Correction: Crash Recession & Recovery from 2031 through subsequent years. Expansion Cycle 3 Details Expansion Cycle 3: +2509% / 217 Bars ATH Breakout: 2013 to Correction: 2031 (Predicted 18 Years) Previous ATH: 2000/2007 Previous Market Low: 2009 Conclusion; The market is essentially a self repeating algorithm, a fractal!! First defined by Robert W. Brooks in 1978, then first visualized by Benoit Mandelbrot in 1980, this has since been known as the Mandelbrot Set, and can be observed all across complex systems both natural and synthetic, with this mathematic miracle providing the foundation for CGI (Computer Generated Images) so advanced/complex that they can emulate real world expressions of complex natural formations such as mountains, human movement and almost anything you can think of! Yea fractals are awesome, I've seen them a bunch while tripping and have come to understanding of their fundamental role in creating the realities & universe we experience :D I guess the question is, will they play out in the current and future Macro Economic Cycles as well? What are your thoughts? yemala
TVC:SPX
by Yemala
6
Is the Bear Market Upon Us?Hello Everyone, Quick analysis for today. There has been a question in the air for the last 2-3 months. "Are we in a bear market?". Well there is not a simple yes or no answer for this and I would say it is a little too early to call. I am personally leaning more bearish as I am seeing rallies with bearish price action representing dead cat bounces. Not to mention the huge loss in momentum and exit pumps in random small cap alt coins by whales. I have provided several pieces of analysis in the last few weeks but here is a more simple weekly chart. As we can see, each time the market "tops" it is followed by a large relief rally that does not exceed the all time high. The biggest take away is the much lower volume or bearish price action as the price tries to climb back up. Each time this happened, the market saw the entry way into the bear market. Another note is the blue Moving Average which is the Hull Moving Average . This MA has been consistent in determining the start/end of the bull/bear market. Not to mention we are at a 20x from the March 2020 low. I would also like to include a partial monthly analysis here. If you look at RSI, each bull market ended with RSI just above 90. The bear market followed. This bull market hit 90 right around the 60k area. This does not mean there are not bullish swings in the bear market. There are 4-7 on average per year. I will be looking forward to trading these as well as DCAing in the bear market (if it is here to stay). I made some very good gains in this bull market. Things can change and we may still continue this bull cycle but at this point I think it's unlikely. As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RomanXIV
7
Bitcoin: The Ultimate Market Cycle Theory ExplainedIn this post, I'll be breaking down Bitcoin's market cycle theory, explaining my perspective on the target and time period I have in mind for this bullish rally. If you've been keeping track of my other posts, you'll notice that I've been very clear with the fact that the overall trend remains bullish on Bitcoin, as much as the short term trend may appear bearish. You can view my latest post, where I cover Bitcoin's daily chart here: Bitcoin: The Beginning of a Second Rally Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. Bitcoin's Price Target Analysis / Explanation - This is a model that was inspired by that of DigitalKM on Twitter. - We can first arbitrarily divide Bitcoin's market cycle into three: the first cycle from 2010-2013, second cycle from 2013-2017, and the current third cycle. - We can then look at the fibonacci retracement levels based on the major pullbacks/corrections that took place during each market cycle. - What's interesting to note is how the 1.618 level initially plays a key level of resistance, but acts as the bottom support for the coming (next) cycle. - We can also see a pattern in which the market cycle peaks near the 2.272 fib resistance. - As such, given that price actions tend to repeat, we can expect a huge initial rejection at the 1.618 fib level, around 63k (which is exactly what happened), and a continuation upwards as we peak around the $200,000 mark for this cycle. Now that we have a rough estimate of where this cycle might end, then comes the big question: when exactly could we expect this market to top off? Bitcoin's Cycle Duration Analysis / Explanation - So there are two theories I initially had in mind for Bitcoin's market cycle duration. - The first theory is a case in which we see the cycle's top around December 2020. - Historically, all market cycle tops have peaked out in December, so it would make sense to see a parabolic move up to the top by the end of the year. - For a detailed explanation on this theory, check out my other analysis I posted on Nov 16, 2020: Bitcoin: Long Term Breakout Projection - The second theory for the cycle duration is based on Bitcoin's halving events and cycles. - After the btc halving in 2012, the rally lasted 372 days up to Nov 2013. - The second halving in 2016 lasted 520 days, up to Dec 2017. - In terms of time span, this is a 39% increase in the duration of the bull run. - So assuming that we apply the same increase in duration for this bull run, we’d see the rally last 722 days, which would end around May of 2022. - This aligns with Benjamin Cowen's model as well, where we see an extended duration for every Bitcoin cycle, and diminished returns. Conclusion Predicting the market is impossible, but as traders and investors, we need to understand the overall picture and understand market cycles in order to best position ourselves within a bull market backed by huge momentum. I believe that Bitcoin's price target of $200,000 by May 2020 is one of many highly probable scenarios based on the technicals of its price action, as well as the market's reaction to Bitcoin's supply change based on halving events. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
BNC:BLXLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
16
BITCOIN... where are you going?I was going to hold off posting this until the current daily close as it could invalidate my entire road map for now, I'm already short how ever was looking to cover my position today with the intentions of seeing a buy back on the daily close. If this current Daily candle closes well below the current short term range support I'm expecting more downside much earlier than I would like. How ever if we do have a recovery here and we start to move higher again with market structure I'm not going to turn Bull again, I'm simply biding my time for a much better entry on the continuation of the down trend expecting some form of a broadening range over the next month, this will ultimately become a suckers rally or bull trap as the perma bulls and retail fail to see the signs that we are already in a bearish indecisive market. Retail have a natural tendency of a bullish confirmation bias and some times fail to see the information in front of them, instead twist it or see what they want to see to confirm the narrative, much like selective hearing as a child lol It's for this phenomena that often retail become trapped into positions that smart money can take advantage of and they simply become liquidity providers to the big players. I am expecting another short/mid term rally towards the 46k bottom of the previous range as a bit of a complacency play which is why I refer to it as the suckers rally as the perma bulls, YouTube gurus and retail traders start yelling "told ya so 1milly bitty here we come" "should have bought the dip" etc etc This will be a perfect time for large funds to trap the bulls into positions to fill large shorts and ride the price back down to the previous support level. As we touch back on support I would expect a natural reaction of a dismal buy back but as we move into the anxiety phase and retail start to become weary they may actually be wrong, I wouldn't expect to see a whole heap of buying here and most likely see a bear flag form and break to the downside demolishing that support level at 32k The key areas I'm looking at for the continuation is the large demand zone around 25k, now keep in mind the structure formed at 25k I wouldn't normally consider to be a large demand how ever the retest in Jan confirmed there was a demand at that level at the start of the year so it may still be a significant level to watch for so expecting to see a short term recovery how ever ultimately breaking down again as the bulls begin the panic and capitulation phase of a market cycle as this is where the big money takes the most advantage to fill large positions and begin the accumulation once again. There is a key area around 22-24k where there was a hold up in the market towards the end of last year as we entered price discovery from previous ATH, the pause during that period was short lived and we never returned to that level, so we could see a square up to this level but I'm not counting on it being the reversal point more so an Area Of Interest to manage my trade accordingly at the time. Finally we push towards a liquidity grab as 20k just seems like way to obvious of a level to aim for, there will be bottom pickers, buy the dippers, people loading up on longs are previous ATH and others front running the herd, this will become a massive liquidity pool for smart money so either we turn the market around before we get there which will simply price retail out of the market before they get a change to get in. or they let them get in and there stop loss orders become the liquidity pool and they do one last blip down to shake them out and take there orders off them, and thus we begun the re accumulation phase. Anyway just my thoughts and a possible road map that I often refer to as my "play book" These arnt so much a "prediction" or a "call" more a case of "if this happens, then im gonna do that" Keen to hear your thoughts
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DeNomics
1
We keep comparing fractals BTC 2019-2021 Last April I made a comparison of fractals towards a bear market and it was carried out, we currently see a recovery but how true can it be in the face of a bullish break? We can get to have a bulltrap and come back again and double-bottom in the 30k. Otherwise, we can break well and head towards the 44-48k level in case this is done in a good way, we could visit a double top or if we draw a fibonacci extension in the medium term, go towards 100k but in the case that not If it happens, we could head towards catastrophe and visit not only again as a triple floor at 30k, but 24k at the base of our canal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by HotChili
BTC- Fundamental, market cycle and capitulationThe great unwind... As Mark Cuban calls it. Such capitulations are, however, not uncommon throughout Bitcoin's history. Feb 2018, Nov 2018 and Mar 2020... To name a few. Of course, to newcomers, such volatility is difficult to stomach. At least, that was how I felt back in 2017. The latest China FUD is simply three banking and payments associations in China reiterated on the central bank's 2017 ban on financial institutions and payment firms engaging in cryptocurrency transactions and these rules have been in place since 2017. China has been banning the retail trading and the operation of crypto exchange within China’s jurisdiction since 2017. I know this because I was at the front row seat and watched this event unfolded which also coincided with the deep correction of Ethereum from $400 to $140. China’s latest crackdown on Bitcoin mining will be limited to operations that are not using hydroelectric power. If you think about it, it’s actually good for BTC’s reputation and the global environment in the long run as the world’s adoption of the decarbonation accelerates. Elon musk’s bashing of BTC…. Hard to take him seriously when he doesn’t even know the high ownership concentration of DOGE and when he believes that he can magically 10x the block size of DOGE. Obviously, he hasn’t thought seriously about the scalability dilemma and the tradeoff between privacy & decentralization and transaction volume/speed/cost. He is right about the BTC’s environmental impact though and it is an important issue for Bitconers to address as the worldwide trend toward the greener environment marches on. I just wish that he didn’t flipflop on whether or not he would allow Tesla to accept BTC payment. FOMOers, long-term holders/whales and miners determine crypto’s market cycle. Let’s examine them one by one. Short-term holder's capitulation- Panic selling is actually good as weak hands get shaken out and market cools off a bit. Both aSOPR and STH-SOPR have dipped below 1.0 recently indicating the widespread and aggressive panic selling by new holders. # of address with a non-zero balance has also decreased which is another sign of panic selling by FOMOers. Bitcoin’s Net Transfer volume from/to Binance is another panic selling indicator as it went up when panic selling intensified. Long-term holder is HODLing- The ASOL, CDD and Dormancy metrics are all down indicating HODL sentiment among long-term holders. # of Bitcoin supply held by Long Term Holders indicating that LTHs haven’t distributed their holdings to the lvl where the new accumulation phase typically begins. Coinbase’s outflow continues to increase and its balance continue to decline which indicating institutional accumulation and demand and the increasing # of accumulation addresses also point to the same trend. Total supply held by long-term holders has also slightly increased though this data by itself doesn’t tell us if LTH is accumulating at the bottom of the bullish retracement or the beginning of bearish cycle. Miners' accumulation- Last but not the least, miners’ behavior has great influence on the market sentiment. Both Bitcoin’s Miner Net Position Change and OTC Desks Balance indicate that miners are bullish and are accumulating BTC instead of distributing it. Most other on-chain datas and technical indicators such as BTC NVT price, Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon and Mayer multiple paint a bullish picture as well . However, one thing that concerns me is that Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1,000 BTC seems to be declining a bit. It’s possible that the price can continue to fall and bottom around 25k, but the likelihood of it happens will depend on if BTC can convincingly break above 38k and how long BTC stays below 40k. Whatever you do, base your judgement on the combination of different source and analysis rather than the biased intuition and simple trading patterns. Most importantly, play the long game. It's paramount that you can survive the bearish cycle, which will come eventually, and have enough capital set aside so you can buy at the bottom formation and enjoy the fruit of your labors when the market rises up again.
by Libratus
2
Cardano break out this simetric triangle and pull back confirmedI see that Cardano break up this simetric triangle and that was an accumulation zone in the range of $1 to $1.44 USD. Right now, Cardano it's above of $1.40 USD and we see that Cardano have all chances to continue up in the next days. For that, we can to looking for long position in this cryptocurrency. In Daily timeframe, it's look bullish and I see that Cardano it's leading toward the $2.86 USD calculating the simetric triangle base to compare and project the next bull movement incomming. We see in 3 Daily timeframe that Cardano based in this timeframe, it's could to leading to $7.66 USD in few weeks by medium to long term. That will be amazing for us as we're Cardano holder. And also, I want to make stream video in trading view here to talk about of cryptocurrency news, about Cardano, and other altcoin to know their fundamental analysis, and maybe, I belive to create a telegram group, that help us to be connected as community. Now, we see that Cardano it's extremely bullish, you can to put a buy order limit at $1.41 USD with the SL at $1.19 USD and your target proit will be $2.86 USD. Guys, if you found out that this idea it's going to support for everyone, you're inviting to share this analysis with others traders, crypto-enthusiastic and others crypto-community to know my perspective and expand my presence.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
3