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Marketcycle

EURUSD Gann AnalysisYou might have noticed that the last month was has been the the breakout phase of the the overall market cycle. Beginning May 12th we saw the beginning of a counter trend expansion, which has conformed to a gann fan pattern for the rest of the month. This month should be characterized by a bearish reversal, and a transition into the trend phase of the market cycle. Last Friday's NFP led to a resurgence of bearsish momentum, which will likely continue given the context of the move within the overall market cycle. Friday wasn't just a bearish move, it was a signal that we are now entering the last market cycle. Price has stopped just short of the lowest side of the gann fan, which could break later this week. I'm looking for a descending channel to form on the daily or 4hr time frame to confirm the bearish trend. Tonight or Monday, I'm looking for price to breakout to supply and fail to break resistance. I've set my demand target close to the lowest gann level.
by NeoDaNomad
GBP NZD - Clear path, awaiting confirms (Quick Series XI)G'Day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, until the opportunity for a close reaches the profit taking zone. This will be activated as long, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at currently awaiting confirmation of a short term bearish move, before heading long again Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly with Original levels and fresh levels yet to be tested Clear departure on the weekly Monthly - (Monthly ray has been left in to represent the steepness of the curve. Price may not instantly revert to the Original level, as a trader, it's impossible to know the time limit, however the direction from a Departure will lead to an arrival using supply and demand in conjunction with a clear supply imbalance formation. The "clear seven week drop" on the chart signifies the overall move was strong, whilst this does have an element of prediction, the reality is price moves in a downward right formation where an original and fresh level below the current imbalance whereby this is test number four, proves the zone is a solid trading range between 1.89 - 2.05 zones respectively. The monthly wicks, have left patterns forming with higher lows providing a strong basis. Weekly Markup Clear departure on the weekly highlighting a Fresh level (FL) - zone will require a retest and this will initiate a strong supply zone. Price may not instantly revert to the FL as the strong departure can accumulate before the next distribution pattern is confirmed. Subject to weekly closes price can revert back to test lows of <1.92 subject to a shorter term base forming upon a daily level. Note, this also aligns with the December 6, 2021 candle of interest which 'pauses' the RBR formation. Rally Base Rally scenario (Daily) View >3months Oscillation scenario - forming a wedge pattern within the process? - as shown. Look to short from the base to hedge long positions - subject to confirmation within the trading range. Long from a pivot low using eight hour chart, daily for a confirmation of a higher low and failure to breach engulfing candle pattern from May 5, departure reactive test. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Long
by LupaCapital
Ethereum Name ServiceEveryone's favorite Airdrop/DAO/NFT/Web3 functionality ENS has been catching a decent bid amid current market conditions. Up about 90% from the lows while the majority of the market is back to their lows, I'd say ENS is doing pretty well. From a point of value/ R:R, and also based on popularity, utility + sustainable future, ENS is in a great place currently at face value for a swing/mid-term hold (IMO). Recent News ENS 3 & 4 digit number names have become quite popular recently creating a buzz around the NFT ecosystem, most notably with BAYC/MAYC members buying the # that corresponds to their NFT #. Adding to the above, with the new otherside deeds going live, ALL ENS numbers from 1-10k & 10.1 - 20k are taken. Quite an influx of cashflow is no doubt having an effect on the price of the underlying token as I believe a portion of the funds go towards the DAO and the community handles it from there, making for a fundamentally bullish case IMO. I myself have been trying to snipe notable names that are expiring soon . Think of it like buying the copyright to your name - no one else can have the same name as you, and if they want to, then theyll have to pay you at your price. I believe ^this^ portion of the analysis is where the greatest value will come from; I'll leave you to connect the dots and figure out the rest. ENS also recently broke the threshold of 1,000,000 names. Moving along, looking at price as a whole, its evident to me that ENS has went thru a full market cycle and is in the last phase. Think of the famous Market Psychology Chart. Many airdrop tokens & brand new low-midcap IDO tokens tend to go through this Market Psychology M as I like to call it at a much faster rate than more sustainable tokens. I believe I have a few analysis on that topic that I'll link below. Conclusion Looking at all the factors mentioned and from a probabilistic view: Is it possible for ENS to make it back to $40 given there is a rise in popularity again? YES Is it possible due to the current market cycle phase for ENS to make it back to at least $40 without any other factors? MAYBE Can ENS fall back to lows where we see a fourth bottom and likely fall even further creating a much worse R:R ? UNLIKELY (NO) Based on current strength relative to the market, can ENS possibly continue even for a short while breaking the next resistance level? YES Welp, thats enough for me to look for an entry and potentially hop into the next trend. ENS names becoming hot again is definitely something I see happening; everyone already has their twitter usernames as their ENS, so what could really go wrong by buying a name you like, or even investing in the project that facilitates this?
by N0ST0PL0SS
2
ETH BullJust your normal bull market. Enjoy guys. A quick bull run up to $5297 Eth And then a retracement ( bottoming out ) to/at $2262 Eth Take entry at your own accord. Not financial advice. TP 1 : $4400 Enter again @ $3050-$3100 TP 2 : $5297 and wait for bearish divergence confirmation. A more aggressive TP 2/3 could be $6467 Enter again @ $4146 TP 3 : $4864 The End. Let the market crash down from 25 August 2022 all the way to ---> 3 February 2023 As always be safe. Spend more time with your loved ones.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by BoredNinjaClub
IS DXY AKA DOLLAR ABOUT TO COLLAPSE?Is history about to repeat itself once again. The dollar has enjoyed a spat of Bullishness since may last year. It seems to be slowing down at present though. Running into Monthly fibonacci levels at present the .702 is holding. I'd like to see a close below the .618 next to confirm the move to the downside, targeting D extension @ 84.6 Because the market likes round numbers, I wouldn't be surprised to see a final push up towards the .786 aka 100. Technically price can push as high as 102 and still be printing Lower Highs on the weekly and monthly timeframes. This is bearish price action, given the state of the world economy at present. Especially the USD, I can't see the DXY making an impulsive move upwards. This leads me to believe that the local top for DXY is nearly in and with it a bearish couple of months will follow. On a macro-economic level, what we could see playing out here is essentially the collapse of the US Dollar. It has maintained dominance and world reserve status due to the petrodollar. As the US pushes for sanctions more countries are moving away from the Dollar. One significant move has been the rise of the Petroyuan. China's response to economic warfare committed by the US. Once this is fully established demand for the Dollar will not only go down, it will collapse. Not to mention the US currently has inflation at around 8% whilst China is sitting pretty at around 0.9%. There is a clear winner here and it is not the dollar. So either a miracle happens or we are about to witness a new world order. Time will tell, either way what we're witnessing is a massive shift in the global powers. The USA is on its last legs and they seem to be digging an even bigger hole than the one they're already in.
TVC:DXYShort
by PrinceParisOfTroy
BITCOIN ALL YOU NEED TO DO IS ZOOM OUTAfternoon frens, Bitcoin has been side stepping since 10th Jan, so pretty much the whole of 2022 so far. Although this can be frustrating, in times of consolidation it's best to just sit on our hands and wait for the market to give us a direction. As you can see we have been bouncing around the fib levels and weekly resistance. There are quite big wicks either side, indicating both bulls and bears are getting slaughtered in the market. Whenever indecision is present, I sit on my hands and wait. Trying to enter the market now is a guessing game and will mostly end up on the wrong side. We did achieve a weekly close above 40K last week aka the .618 fib level. This does indicate bullishness in the market, however with all the indecision, I'm still not happy to trade here. Instead to confirm my bullish bias I would be much happier waiting for; A close above EMA's A close above 43.5K I will be watching PA only lower TF for bullish market structure A weekly close above 45.8K to fully confirm If this happens my target will be the fib extensions @ 87K & 117K respectively Despite the consolidation we see at the moment, I am overall bullish on Bitcoin. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the market right now, when that is over BTC will have its day. The DXY is also at an interesting turning point, it either carries on strengthening or it collapses. My guess would be a collapse is round the corner as this will coincide with fundamentals at the moment. I can't see the Dollar becoming any stronger than it already is. Once the DXY collapses that is when BTC and ALTs go on their run. I'm looking forward to it. Alternatively for the bearish perspective I will be waiting for a close below 33K next target would be 28.6K followed by 22.6K worst case which is the fib extension to complete the impulsive move down. Have a great day, appreciate you taking the time to check out my TA. Please comments are open, lets discuss :) Cheers, Chartster
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PrinceParisOfTroy
Sector Rotation March 2022: Stocks Winning While Market DownMy last video on Sector Rotation was almost a year ago. The signals for where the money was flowing into and out of stocks was not nearly as clear as it is now. Stocks in Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities are considered Defensive plays in a market going down. It is clear by the winners and losers across the market and in my own trade calls which stocks are strong against the bearish tide. Traders and investors can use the Sector Rotation model to position themselves in changing market conditions and have an idea of which sector is likely to lead next.
AMEX:SPY
by norok
3
XRP - Ripple without doubts STRONG Move UP! Could above 0.3440$!Analysis for next week January 6 — 10, 2020 - Ripple - XRP/USD end the trading week at 0.19102 and continue to move within the correction and the bearish channel. Moving averages indicate the presence of a bearish trend, continue to be repelled by signal lines, which indicates pressure from the bears. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to continue the decline and test the support area near 0.1405 (exactly if will break the strong support area 0.1746). Where again we should expect a rebound and continued growth of the cryptocurrency in the region above the level of 0.3445 as part of the development of the bullish «Wolfe Wave» model. Hints are a lot so we can say this is a new chapter of New Market-Cycle, without doubts. As soon with all Top Crypto with BTC strong Dominance - 68.20% increased with + 0.06% from yesterday test near strong supports. - In favor of the growth of XRP/USD quotes in the current trading week from January 6 to 10, 2020 , a test of the support line on the relative strength index (RSI) will come out. The second signal will be the completion of the formation of the bull model «Wolfe Wave» . Analysis January 6 — 10, 2020 suggests an attempt to test the support level near the 0.1405 area. Where can we expect continued growth of quotations with a potential target at the level of 0.3445 . An additional signal in favor of the fall of Ripple will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). - Hope you guys you support our work with a like and share of this post! Also don't foreget to follows us! :) You can motivate us to post more analysis cryptocurrency charts! Thank you! ,) Mention: This is not FINANCIAL ADVICE! Just EDUCATIONAL ANALYSIS!
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by DERYMEXCRYPTO
2
Dangerous TOTAL2 PRZ?! Crypto market dump ahead? In order to have a bull market, it's essential to absorb more money; and I mean BIG MONEY! The main reason that crypto market made huge profits in 2021 was that more people understood what cryptocurrency actually is. This led to normal people (such as me and other new to crypto fellas) investing on this market hoping to get good profit and we got it! But how long would this bull run last? The answer lays beneath the TOTAL and TOTAL2 charts. These charts reveal how much money the entire market has absorbed. As I mentioned at first, the more money the market gains, the more it grows. But when the money slowly leaves, the Market Cycle Phase changes. You may ask what it means, so here's a simple explanation from Investopedia: 1. Accumulation phase: This phase occurs when the market has bottomed and the main investors such as big corporations, money managers and smart investors start buying. In this phase valuations are attractive, yet huge percentage of investors still consider the market bearish and the sentiment analysis say so. 2. Mark-Up Phase: During this phase, technicians see the movement in the market and other investors get on the bullish train and prices start to go higher and higher. This is investors favorite phase! No matter what you buy and when you buy it, you make great profits. 3. Distribution Phase: In this Phase, sellers start to dominate the market, the bullish sentiment changes to mixed sentiment and prices often move in trading range. As soon as this phase comes to the end, the prices start to reverse and classic patterns such as double top or triple top appear on charts. 4. Mark-Down Phase: Without any doubt, this phase is the scariest of all 4 and the nightmare of investors. During this phase, prices go lower and lower, the news would be all bearish. If we carefully observe the third phase and exit the market, our money can be safe but if not the nightmare would become real without any doubt. If you take a closer look you'll realize that the TOTAL2 was unable to go higher than the all time high. You don't even need to be a technician to notice that. I used the 4H time frame on purpose. It is possible to see bullish movements in short-term yet it all could just be a pull back in long-term. The market cycle I mentioned earlier is fractal which means there could be bullish mark-up cycle in 1H or 4H time frame but not in long term. In conclusion, this post wasn't here to scare you, but to inform you what could be awaiting us. The money I mentioned could leave one coin and be invested on another one, eg; from BTC to MANA or vise versa. This means it's still a very attractive market but you have to be more careful. Looking forward to hearing what you think!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by impressiveHero2001
Psychology of a Market Cycle Applied (ADA Application)Above is a side by side comparison of the Psychology of the market cycle from Wall St. Cheat Sheet to ADA's current yearly market structure. I overlayed colored lines over line graph for visual aid. This market cycle theory developed in the lens of trading psychology was originally developed and posted by Satoshi Nakamoto, the cryptic father of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin , and, arguably, deserves the title of 'Father of Cryptocurrency' alongside David Chaum . Currently, I see two possibilities: 1) We are in the end of the DISBELIEF phase, where a slight pull back occurs before the optimism/belief/thrill stages appear. 2) We may be experiencing the depression dip before building up to the "Hope" phase were a small pull back occurs before a big breakout. Given the effects of the tumultuous socio-economic environment created by COVID along with the unprecedented flooding of the Alt/DeFi/NFT market (ranging from both revolutionary blockchain technologies to almost useless meme coins like Shib or the SQUID, named as reference to Squid Games show). It would be remiss of me not to further mention the major effects the global political environment has rendered. Issues range from China's crypto collapse (starting with mining and then finally fully banning the use of them) to Kazakhstan's power and internet outages . Together, these provide an answer to a concept that seems to escape even the most astute technical traders: Although the use of statistically oriented indicators proves effective in theory, the patterns and signals we know to be effective tools today will slowly change in the the way they provide signals for traders. If the picture was the "average," then the actual market provides the source of "standard deviations" we see in price action evolution, both within a single asset's historical rendering and between assets that move closely.
by PapaBear95
1
Psychology of a Market Cycle Applied (CARDANO's representation)Above is a comparison of the Psychology of the market cycle from Wall St. Cheat Sheet (originally developed and posted by Satoshi Nakamoto, the cryptic father of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and, arguably, deserves the title of 'Father of Cryptocurrency ADA's current price action/movement. Currently, I see two possibilities: 1) We are in the end of the DISBELIEF phase, where a slight pull back occurs before the optimism/belief/thrill stages appear. 2) We may be experiencing the depression dip before building up to the "Hope" phase were a small pull back occurs before a big breakout. Given the effects of the tumultuous socio-economic environment created by COVID along with the unprecedented flooding of the Alt/DeFi/NFT market (ranging from both revolutionary blockchain technologies to almost useless meme coins like Shib or the SQUID, named as reference to Squid Games show). It would be remiss of me not to further mention the major effects the global political environment has rendered. Issues range from China's crypto collapse (starting with mining and then finally fully banning the use of them) to Kazakhstan's power and internet outages . Together, these provide an answer to a concept that seems to escape even the most astute technical traders: Although the use of statistically oriented indicators proves effective in theory, the patterns and signals we know to be effective tools today will slowly change in the the way they provide signals for traders. If the picture was the "average," then the actual market provides the source of "standard deviations" we see in price action evolution, both within a single asset's historical rendering and between assets that move closely.
by PapaBear95
DXY CAPITULATION PENDING A WEEKLY CLOSEAfternoon people, Thanks for taking the time to check out my Technical analysis, much appreciated. Constructive comments are always encouraged. DXY has enjoyed a lot of strength in recent weeks, strangely baffling seeing as since 2020 the supply of USD has increased by 30%+. There is now more Dollars in existence than have ever been, yet according to recent strength it would seem people still trust the Dollar. It seems like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. The dollar is weak, it has been since Nixon unpegged it from the Gold Standard, thus sealing its fate as a fiat currency. History shows us how it ends for "world reserve currencies", the cycle is around every 100 years. Guess how long the Dollar has been in power for ;) Price attempted to breakout to the upside last week, completing the impulsive move from 94.56 to 96. However the .5 fib held and sellers stepped in causing a considerably big wick. Indicating buyers are struggling to break through the fibonacci levels that are acting as resistance. we closed with a huge wick on the weekly. I'm now waiting for a weekly close below the aforementioned levels to indicate a continuation to the downside. This adds further confluence to my idea posted earlier in regards to Bitcoin. It would seem Bitcoin has found its bottom and we should now be expecting Bitcoin to start moving towards my 233K targets. Once DXY starts collapsing, the downside targets at the D ext. are 86 & 82 respectively. It is my belief that we will be seeing the Dollar collapse as Bitcoin goes on its parabolic blow off top phase of the market cycle (something we haven't seen yet). Regardless of how far Bitcoin goes, it needs a DXY collapse to do so. Similar to 2017. So far Bitcoin is inversely correlated with DXY. Observed today we can see weakness in the DXY has led to Bitcoins price rising and therefore the rest of the crypto market across the board. This is just the beginning. Don't be disillusioned, when Bitcoin does pullback, which it will. This will be a great buying opportunity. Be patient & ENJOY the show. Remember to take profits as you go and scale out. We don't need to pick tops. No one ever went broke taking profits. Happy trading, Big Love
TVC:DXY
by PrinceParisOfTroy
1
GBP AUD - Correction completed? Longs addedHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources. Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Review the full analysis below; or below Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly Inverse Fibonacci 1. this shows the inverse Fibonacci upon the previous imbalance whereby price has created a pivot structure on the weekly chart at 1.9158, price created a low formation to create a reversion of "0" at the base of 1.85, GBP AUD is very good at correcting to 61.8 or 70.5% using Fibonacci, personally the structure of this pair tends to ignore the 50% pivot structure as the pair is open to larger engulfing moves. . -0.618% Pivot imbalance reversal Overall this extension target was important to await the initial move, creating the High and low to allow the corrective imbalance to imbalance structure to navigate itself. Those who can form a basis understanding of the imbalance zone at will be able to place shorter term but maintain long opportunities as the overall monthly shows a buying imbalance probability in higher favour than sellers. Monthly higher highs The two highlights on this chart has been purposely left to show the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement zones where highly probable bullish moves will occur. Looking left the white eclipse which is circling the bearish candle, note how the second highlight retraces perfectly to the body of the wick, closes out and nets - this is our net imbalance whereby price has closed out in favour of the bullish manoeuvre which will now show probability over >50% in favour of the bulls. The second formation of this zone forming an imbalance is for two reasons which will be explained. Revert to the below chart to see why this 0.236 is important. I. The imbalance candle has netted off and also in combination with higher low formation upon the monthly shows the buying opportunities to now test "0" and continue the trend to the up and right. The netting is important here as the body of the bearish candle forming the imbalance at II. The formation of the weekly and monthly inverse Fibonacci and Extension Fibonacci indicate a clear pivotal reactive zone where the inverse completion pattern is now overextended, and the monthly extension pattern is showing a corrective structure for a change of hands. Daily Correctional Channel The daily correctional channel in conjunction with the weekly shows the correctional pattern of the creation and formation of the higher lows and lower highs. When plotting the trendlines upon the swing low of the formation "0" and the correctional pullback for the continued trend of selling over the short, medium term at 61.8% - 70.5%. The channel lines are formed in line with top wick placed at "1" and now the channel will bounce within these zones probability. Where the lowest low or completion has formed, the -0.618 has provided a change of hands upon a buying imbalance. Now price looks to break the trend and resume longs at a discounted price. The next step is to break the formation of the upper trend line, break and retests are a highly probable scenario where the zone will be testing the "0" and ultimately on a daily timeframe (once a high has formed) a retest of a pivot point be it -0.27 in this case). Trades can be added here with confirmations for both buys and correctional sells for hedging. AUD USD Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Inverse correction pattern completed upon the weekly, but will now look to test the monthly zone where the AUD has not retested the lower imbalance of 0.70 as yet. The weekly trendline if plotted will show a formation of lower highs but at the same time forming higher low pivots, so where price will come to an apex, we will have to await the confirmation of the next move. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Where are now, currently using the weekly chart Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
4
USD JPY - November Walk upon breakout Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Note adding longs are in position and further can be added upon breakout of 8hour analysis below. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. This is a public upload after private idea is now offered, review the analysis below. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances for USD JPY These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Since the previous analysis update - price has now reached the monthly zone between 109.6 - 111.8X which has is show below. Where we are now Price has consolidated upon the weekly and daily showing a corrective move occurring but the shorter term retracement is forming nicely upon the 61.8% . Weekly Chart Upon the weekly chart price has created a long opportunity which extended out of the previous weekly imbalance and has created a new zone. Price had corrected upon an engulfing breakout candle after a consolidation wave which adopted the next move. Upon the breakout of this zone, price now walks up to the monthly imbalance and once the zone is breached, price is expected to retrace to build on the order block as a reversion pivot. Using the Fibonacci sequence and combination of the price pivoted back to the -0.27 and 0.618% which both align. So from this rejection, using probability the imbalance has now formed a strong block. Using the replay bars - price had moved exactly where the price was forecast. The previous analysis from March 2021 showed this clearly. Previous analysis's Original - Updated - Note* , adapt to the longer term scenario. Four & Eight hour correctional pattern The correctional pattern shows a reliable trading pattern in terms of correcting from an impulse move. Price has offered multiple tests creating lower highs and establishing lower lows in the correctional move, but as the consolidation build up exchanges in this zone - price is continuing to fall towards the level desired at the pivot point. Looking at the Four Hour chart now - price has shown descending patterns and simple break and retest patterns a like to catch the shorter term day trading moves. From a patient trader who trades positions or swings - catching a correctional hedge from the top or awaiting buys is why we wait as the choppiness of the market here is clear liquidity for advanced traders. Two opportunities of are of interest in the four hour channel. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Firstly isolating the US05Y-US02Y chart monthly Using Imbalances and Fibonacci - two trades are identified with a selling example , and to the right a buying opportunity is clear where Yields are representing a change of hands The monthly shows upon an imbalance formation a buying opportunity for break and retests and also with the aggressive minded who react upon the pivot point - a long opportunity is present. Note how both failed upon the 0.382% on the selling imbalance correction and now the buying imbalance correction. The weekly Highlights the opportunities further enhanced views. Again both trades follow the top to bottom and now bottom to top reverse analysis. Here is the daily current scenario for the treasuries. The 0.382 held, with the weekly zone not required as the pivot zone supported the bullish imbalance from the weekly zone so an upper imbalance in the "walking up" had been created. Where we are now in terms of the cross-asset comparison: Tracking the DXY - view the analysis at the bottom to track further. the DXY and USD JPY are all showing a clear presence where the path is in correlation and now it is providing probabilities in favour for long additions as the causation is at peak markets but at the same time flows of funds are being moved from profit takers to new asset classes and as well as the USD showing it's strength as fundamentals are in play behind the scenes such as CPI jumps, consumer confidence and also GDP metrics. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
Market Structure Simplified It is easy to get confused with overflowing information about market structure in the trading world. To simplify things we have come up with a way of analysing market structure simply by marking each high or low. In this particular example, you can see that higher lows were being created all the way down the bearish trend, so we knew that it was a seller's market UNTIL we got our break of structure . When the BOS became apparent, we began to shift our attention to the possibility of reversals and used our magic tool, the Fibonacci. This technique can be used in any trend, try it for yourselves! Please, support this post with a like and comment!
Education
by AlkalineFX
84