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Marketcycle

BTC's current structure looks like a classic market cycle.Taking a look at the current BTC structure on the daily time-frame, this to me looks like a classic market cycle. -We had the Disbelief rally back up to the 4k ceiling back in Feburary of 2019. -Followed by Hope as price was holding higher levels and consolidating under the 4k resistance. -Optimism then set in when 4k broke and price popped up the 5k region. -After that, Belief set in and price went parabolic through the old 6k floor up to the $7400 region before further consolidating. -Thrill then sets in as price rockets above 10k, 11k, 12k. -And then finally, price hits Euphoria just under 14k before we see a blow-off top into a distribution schematic. -Price distributes for several months before breaking the 9k floor and dropping as low as $7295 or so only to then rocket up over 50% in less than 2 days to back above 10k, before eventually setting in another lower-high and confirming the bearish s/r flip at the previous support floor of the distribution range around 9-10k. This confirms it as new resistance, which in turn, fits in with the Complacency phase. -After setting in that lower high around 9-10k, price has now entered the Anxiety phase in my opinion, and we likely transitioning into the Denial phase. I copied a fractal from the 6k->3k drop for the remaining portion after the anxiety phase. (Just for comparison to give us a better idea of how the rest of the market cycle could play out.) The fractal is only for visual purposes. Not intended to be targets or anything of the sort. Link to the market cycle chart: imgur.com -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Deftsuo
8
TSLA - Investors AnxietyHi, This is a followup idea on my original Tesla idea (linked). I would like to switch focus from Wyckoff pattern to a Market Cycle which gives a longer term perspective of what kind of behavior we can expect from Tesla stock. As we can see on the chart we have already passed COMPLACENCY phase of the cycle while stock has been distributed for 2 years. Critical support - ICE at $250 has been broken triggering sell off an quick drop to a previous support area at around $180. At that support lots of buyers, who still believe that the company's nearest future is bright, were sitting and waiting for the opportunity to buy at a cheaper price. That marks the next phase of Market Cycle - DENIAL. So far investors deny to see that the company (even if cars are good) is struggling financially and potentially needs to restructure its operations/management to value investors' money more. They deny to see that many investors purchased this stock at the price above ICE level (above $250) and still holding - waiting to sell their positions at minimal loss. Now, when the price came back to $250-ish area where greed and fear meet we are witnessing ANXIETY phase of Market Cycle. Those who underwater eager to sell. Those who bought at $180 want to minimize the risk and don't want to buy at this level waiting for a break but ready to take profit. Considering time the TSLA price spent distributing above $250 I think we are not out of the woods yet. Following market cycle price will be rejected and drop below $180 in a fast and furious sell off. PANIC phase is next which will happen when investors realize that price is not going to break $250 resistance. September is coming to an end this week and as we can see monthly candle is bearish pin, so I assume panic phase will begin soon. It is too early to invest into Tesla yet. Market Cycle suggests we are at the middle of the drop and we will have at least 2 years of struggle before we can start building a bullish case. Good luck!
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by pbartashevich
11
The Next Recession is probably within 2 years.The “Recession Watch” indicator tracks 7 key economic metrics which have historically preceded US recessions. It provides a real-time indication of incoming recession risk. While not flawless, this indicator gives a good picture of when risk is increasing, and therefore when you might want to start taking some money out of risky assets. All of the last seven recessions were preceded by a risk score of 3 or higher. Six of them were preceded by a risk score of 4 or higher. Based on the indicator hit rate at successfully flagging recessions over the last 50 years, risk scores have the following approximate probabilities of recession: - 0-1: Low - 2: 25% within next 18 months - 3: 30% within next 12 months - 4-7: 50% within next 12 months Note that a score of 3 is not necessarily a cause for panic. After all, there are substantial rewards to be had in the lead up to recessions (averaging 19% following yield curve inversion). For the brave, staying invested until the score jumps to 4+, or until the S&P500 drops below the 200day MA, will likely yield the best returns. Read more about the metric on Medium here: medium.com TradingView Indicator here: Notes on use: - use MONTHLY time period only (the economic metrics are reported monthly) - If you want to view the risk Score (1-7) you need to set your chart axis to "Logarithmic" Enjoy and good luck!
SP:SPX
by capriole_charles
1
HIGHLY Speculative Bearish Butterfly on the WeeklyThis is the first time you will ever see me giving speculation on the market, but this is a very speculative Bearish Butterfly in development on the Weekly Time Frame. First we'd need confirmation of the potential Descending triangle. But how I came up with these targets and patterns is using the same math and patterns that have developed in the 2017 bull run and the current one. But a reoccurring phase or (Shortcut to the Market Cycle) in variables would be in this order, A) Parabolic, B) Blow Off Double Top, C) Descending Triangle, D) Capitulation and then repeat! I worked really hard on this and it's just an extremely speculative idea for now. But how badass would it be if that played out. A Bearish Butterfly on the weekly time scale lol
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ChArtWorks_TechnicalArts
1
Silver - Bullish Cycle is nearI think it is time to publish my LONG TERM view on Silver. I believe within next couple of years we will witness a complete sentiment change on Silver as we getting out of depression phase of a market cycle. This change will manifest itself in a great rally to at least peak price of 2016 year which is $21. Later it will gain much more after possible retrace. As can see on a chart, after breaking downward a huge triangle pattern, which was forming almost a year, silver bounced up significantly and started to form a potential Double Bottom pattern. This makes me think that we will not see prices significantly lower than 2018 and 2015 lows. That is our floor. On the up side, the rally will gain momentum after breaking triangle's apex level at around $17. Meanwhile, since it's a long term view, I would advise slowly accumulate long position on deeps. Manage your money properly and Good Luck with your trades!
COMEX:SI1!Long
by pbartashevich
1
BTC EDU post - 100 followers THANK YOU!TL;DR - Go back in history from 1928 to today and research A.i. design / Banking / Market psychology cycles / the 1987 crash / - We are living in a butterfly effect wave caused by your world leaders when gold lost the greenback and it was no longer backed by the green anymore. If you are young in the markets you will want to read this. If you are over the age of 30 you most likely understand a lot of this... This is a story I decided to type up for my followers. Thank you very much for being so support even by liking and following. If you are young it is important for you to really read this.... ---------------------------- The year was 1999 and I was just 10 years old. At this time I didn't care much about the markets or money unless I wanted some candy or a new bike. One thing that did catch my attention was the panic and scare of something that was called the "Y2k Bug" where everyone thought all computers were going to reset to 0 and destroy lots of information data and loss of funds throughout accounts in global tech businesses. Luckily for me, I was a kid fascinated by technology and told my parents to not even worry that the problem was going to be resolved and most likely the news was just wanting to scare everyone. Because I was huge into conspiracy as a kid it actually took into my favor....See...I grew up liking conspiracies, aliens, etc etc...and with only less than 500 million people in the world on the internet pre-2000 I had quite an advantage as a child having access to information at my fingertips through my 56k modem. I did whatever any kid addicted to his favorite toys would do and started to learn for over 10 years about the growth of technology and A.i. Back then the dark web existed with less than 1 million people in it....did you know that?? So here is the point of me telling you this...a portion of the public was scared out of the market before it peaked and this made many people think we had just had a price correction once the market started to dump. Well most were wrong and the market kept dumping just like bitcoin did in 2018...the hype of the internet boom was over and real world use had started to take place..the market was slow...it took 4 years to crash 70% and 16 years to bloom golden apple trees for people who DIDNT GIVE UP AND FOLLOWED WHERE THE INTERNET WAS TAKING US INTO THE FUTURE!!!!! I am here to tell you we have just started playing with this technology on a larger scale.....and we are going through a very similar cycle but there are new pieces at play. Those pieces are defined into 3 simple words... Artificial. Intelligent. Design. Do you know that 50% of bitcoin holders today were not in BTC in 2016 or 2017? The majority of people who came into this market have been entering since the mini bubble of 2018. Why do I say mini? Because the Dot com bubble hit over 5-7 Trillion dollars before it truly crashed. Some have claimed as much as 10 Trillion in certain locations of the world. ..What I call bubble in crypto is simply a "test run" of how the people of this world will take to this technology. In 2016 Btc was between 500-800 dollars. If the block chain leaders of today have already got their prosperity and now are recycling price to grow it realistically...we can very well see prices as low as $1,000 because I feel most of the large capital investors who are holding their initial amount they got in with have reset that same amount at around the 1K marker so they break even on the investment that has also paid for itself for a future to grow with. Think about it....Charles Hoskinson (ADA), Vitalik Buterin (ETH), Dan Larimer (EOS), Charlie Lee (LTC), ...ALL OF THEM STARTED NEW PROJECTS TO ADVANCE THE TECHNOLOGY AND MAKE IT BACKWARDS COMPATIBLE WITH BTC!!!! So if all of them own some bitcoin still...are bullish on it...building networks to connect to it...AND developing better protocols AROUND IT LIKE A FKN SOLAR SYSTEM>>!>!>!> WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU???!?! They have to obey the rules of the leaders of the world and our government on what they decide....so they are placing their chess pieces accordingly so even if bitcoin fails.. the grand architectural design of the new systems will be in harmony on a new system that can simply "snip snip" other networks out if need be. Personally...I don't see it going anywhere near 1,000 again but I do not exclude all options...I see it slowing down a lot and stabilizing with realistic price growth based off real world use-case by the banks, governments, corp leaders, etc etc...and for you conspiracy fans...the shadow government which is where I personally think BTC came from ;) Personally I believe price will hit 1900 - 3300 zone again and we will have 3 falling valleys with a fake out descending triangle just like GOLD looked like when the greenback was no longer supporting it...it dipped below then slowly kept going up and up and never stopped climbing for over 20 years..if bitcoin is like the gold of the internet then you better get it now while supply is cheap because a million dollars today isn't much in the large scheme of things. It will become "heavy" in data...it will be "heavy" in the cost to carry it and pricey to exchange it so it can stay controlled by few with very little common folks being able to have "1 whole bitcoin." It will be like how people chase 1 million dollars today...they might very well be trying to chase 1 full bitcoin in the year 2040.... ARE YOU SEEING WHAT IS HAPPENING?? These block chain leaders are playing it safe...if bitcoin fails to stay around and becomes history..it will be a piece of history worth holding because it was THIS digital asset that started the global change for the next 80 years...a plan that has been set since the stock market crash of 1987...the year I was born...what a time to bust out the baby guns and enter this chaotic world huh?? It takes 10 years to remold technology but its about to re-define the next 80...and you already see how fast technology grows.... The people who lost everything..... their pensions....their homes...their savings.....these people are the ones who have stood up to make a new design "fair" and so the world leaders have heard them because WE stopped giving a shit about their banks and loans and started using their own system against them. When you make millions of peoples lives hell and 90% of them are mentally poor...eventually they will go into survival mode and do whatever it takes to survive. You can't piss off a world of people and expect nothing will happen from the outcome when you suppress them to try and fix your own mess : / (the market crash couldn't be stopped so they have had to try and come up with a new design since then...) I am about to wrap this up and I apologies this is so long but I felt compelled to share after reviewing some old stuff today..... So think about this.... 22% of student loans fall into default...1/5th.. For many, the payments are proving unmanageable. By 2023, nearly 40 percent of borrowers are expected to default on their student loans. Over the past 20 years we had the economy stabbed by a "recession" and even I felt it at age 17 working 2 jobs.... (look at the market cycle crashes from 1982 to now....Funny patterns will begin to show and tell you the story...how ..and why.....) The kids who grew up and graduated between 2000-2007 is the generation who has had to feel the PAIN of our parents struggle to survive an economic turbulence caused by our very own governments of the world because THEY DIDN'T KNOW WHAT TO DO SO THEY PROTECTED THEMSELVES WITH NEW OVER-LAPPING LAWS, NEW LOANS, AND GREEDY WAYS...I don't blame them...I would have protected my family and self as well......I blame the lack of communication between the people and the movers and shakers..I fault the education system for not having the integrity to make it a point to TEACH the importance of money and how it really effects our world in trade and to survive from birth to death....the education system historically was designed to create industrial manufacturing workers...don't believe me...look it up...you will be mind blown how the system went from "teaching to supply workers to grow the world" to "teaching to make people careers and jobs" I am not saying that the education system was developed to make new world order slaves or some crap...I am saying that over the years ..lots of information has been manipulated and left out to teach as a necessity for living life. Money. Education. The way knowledge moves.... All of it is about to change and how it will effect you will be up to you. The 1987 crash not only scared us...but it scared them as well......they knew something had to change when they couldn't control the market from crashing...this is when the white paper of distributed ledger protocols started to come into shape. Yes that is right...there was a protocol design just like bitcoin prior to the age of bitcoin post-2000.. Google it..you will find it... ------------------------------------- Let me take you back some in time and what I learned as a kid and why I am so focused in the world of artificial intelligent design and why this is important to pay attention to not only as a new investment vehicle but as a whole new cycle is in our markets . It will begin starting now and begin transitioning in 2020. Most of us in our middle/young adult years will see how quickly these next 20 years grow and change and Im sure it will make all of us feel very old since some of us got to play with a nintendo and some in this realm and who could be reading this have had the pleasure of playing pac-man on an Atari.... I want you to really think big here. If you were a world leader planning for 100 years of growth for your family legacy and the families of the world for a stable growing world thats in chaos..what would you do??? You would plant the seeds today for your kids tomorrow and you would begin a rough draft of a new era before you started to write the final draft...... If you are 24 years of age or older and reading this you know damn well we have no pension plan for us. You know damn well there is no PLAN for us to retire...we have to make our own plan. I feel as time goes on the middle class is becoming more "spread" apart in order to truly have multiple ladders of wealth to play from...in a sense creating a human liquidity source of workers no matter what the outcome is in life on one side of the world or the other....so we always have a working class and a leading class. If you make the financial road longer...it will take longer for families to generate wealth without innovation...machines are 20% or more of what physical labor used to do...think about that...use your brain or work for pennies will become the next thing. We will always need engineers but you need to see how the job force changes. Some jobs will fall forever and become history and replaced by robots. Some jobs today already are at that point. It will take hundreds of years to become wealthy enough to be a leader of the world in 100 years time...mark my words...this is the only time in our world in our time at our age (if you are around my age) that will be able to have an opportunity to be on the wealthier side of the fence by simply planting your little cryptocurrency seeds across the new designed web 3.0 NOW for this to make sense you need to be taken back to the year 2000.... Take back to the year 2000 The Nasdaq index peaked early March on the 10th of the year 2000 and nearly double over the prior year. Right at the market’s peak, several of the leading high-tech companies, such as Dell and Cisco placed huge sell orders on their stocks, sparking panic selling among investors. Within a few weeks, the stock market lost 10% of its value. As investment capital began to dry up, so did the lifeblood of cash-strapped dotcom companies. Dotcom companies that had reached market capitalization in the hundreds of millions of dollars became worthless within a matter of months. By the end of 2001, a majority of publicly traded dotcom companies folded, and trillions of dollars of investment capital evaporated. Fastforward to today in 2019.... What has the stock market done since 2001 - 2019? What have our fiat currencies turned into? Toilet paper??? They are all becoming weaker and have been printed as such! A NOTE IS ALL YOU HOLD WHEN YOU HOLD PAPER MONEY. YOUR NOTE IS BECOMING WEAKER IN ITS VALUE EVERY PASSING YEAR UNTIL THEY STOP PRINTING MONEY! What has interest rates done? WHY? The housing market? PFFFTTT Dont get me started.... Im 31 years old and I will be damned if I let some old ballsacks in congress try to design my future without me being apart of it or me breathing down their neck through our weapon..... The internet of things....the internet of value... Data is the new oil... will you begin to mine oil today? Or purchase it for retail price later? My best advice for everyone in this realm is to learn your history...truly understand what block chain technology is and DLT...truly compare the protocols and don't just read to forums and reddit posts. DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE! Your world leaders and these leaders in crypto today are just like the leaders who survived the dot com bubble....... Be patient...be smart...dont chase losses...and invest what makes you HAPPY in life...for that is what truly brings you wealth. As they say..do what you love and the money truly can come abundantly when you realize that money is just a tool....do not let it control your life. Turn it into your bitch and make money work for you. Your opportunity is here...take it with a grain of salt and make yourself valuable in many avenues in life..not just crypto portfolio value...build value through multiple avenues. Keep the faucets dripping and you will always have a supply of money to go to. Supply the demand. Thats it for now. Way too long as it is! If you read this thank you for reading my story...please tell me your thoughts as I wrote this pretty scatter brained and jumped around a bit but I tried to hit some topics that are related to why our financial economy is in rambles right now..I will make a video in the future with a very good explanation of this. Overall you can find plenty of topics on the internet about the things I have said here. DYOR and you will be surprised what you will find if you keep digging deep enough....
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by AschraM
BTC Market cycle in disbelief. What's next?According to Market Cycle theory, we should be at the stage of disbelief. If that is correct, we can assume that next huge bullrun is starting to ramp up and it is our last chance to get aboard in to the btc hypetrain! By playing with earlier "hyperbolic growth timeline" we should see new ath soon enough and fib 2.168 around january 2020. The big correction from fib 1.618 to fib 1 is just an assumption. Massive amount of people did get utterly destroyed when btc hype peaked in Dec '17 so i would expect these levels to have some huge manipulation by whales. Buying every dip from now on.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Em4rk
2
Called it to a T, yet again! (With trading advice)Another great trade from a couple of days ago in which I published in my channel. We bought right at the bottom between $9,700 - $9,750 and sold half positions right at today’s top @ $12,000. If you have also made good profits don’t hesitate to show your love in the comments section below. Back on the 29th May I gave you the exact profit taking targets (Blue box on the chart). I am sure some of you think that I was mad to take profits as Bitcoin was going to the moon! But, what if, the price didn’t go to $13.8k in one straight line? What if, the price didn’t even get to $10k and starts to drop? Do you get what I mean? It’s difficult to predict market movement (half of those who predict BTC to $100k in 2018 have somehow vanished). As a speculator, you have a projection, a strategy and risk manage your positions. That’s it! Nothing more! Remember how I told you in 2018 that Bitcoin was going to drop to 3-4k yet I still kept buying at $6000ish and were still be able to make good profits? As I have repeatedly mentioned, my strategy is simple - 1. Buy low & sell high 2. Take 50% profits when 2:1 rr ratio is achieved and leave the remaining positions until critical resistance (or long term hold) 3. Re-invest my profits at good support and ride the wave up And my projection going forward? Initially when price broke out of $7,500 I thought the bear market has probably ended. However, I was waiting for Bitcoin to pullback and consolidate before start moving up again. Surprisingly, it never happen. Instead it went straight to my huge resistance level @ $13,829 in one line. Many called this a start of new bull-run just like what happen in 2017. In my opinion, they are either naive or are probably just crowd pleasing “professionals” looking to gain followers. First, the accumulation between 3-4k was too short to think that a new bull run has started. Second, a new bull run does not start with a parabolic movement. Further, there was no resistance whatsoever back in 2017 after the previous ATH @ $1,200 was taken out. The price just kept going up until when everyone, even your friend surround you who have never open a trade before, start to invest in Bitcoin. The bubble burst. In contrast, currently there are still many resistances on the way up to $20k. How can you compare the two? Different context, different scenarios. As a result, my best guess now is that the market is trying to find it’s range. Probably between mid 5k and 16k. The range may sound too wide to be able to trade. However, if you focus on buying at good support (just like what I have been doing) and apply your strategy of trading a ranging market, you will probably be able to find some profitable trade setups. At present, the next potential buy zone is around $7k. Of course, I will keep giving you timely updates in my channel. A follower mentioned that I don’t post ideas often. The reason is that I want to give you the most profitable and reliable trades I can, instead of giving you updates every few hours just to gain followers. Some other advice: Check the trader’s past records first and don’t follow the ideas blindly - why would you trust someone else with your money? Don’t trade the news - I have called many price movements days/weeks before a news event was released. Yet, people still believe it’s the news that drive the price movement. The moment you think making money is easy, the moment you are going to lose Don’t be greedy - don’t go all in on one trade and not profit taking Risk management - Have a stop loss and check if the rr ratio is good before entering a trade Take profits on those trades that your have hold for more than 12 months first - not sure about US but in Australia your investment is entitled to capital gain tax discount if you hold the investment for more than 12 months
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Taiwan_Bear
33
BITCOIN road to $100.000+ in the comming 2 years.BITCOIN road to 100k+ in the comming 2 years. The market cycle has started again. Maybe this cycle wil be the biggest ever. And maybe it wil go over the 100/200/300k. But realistically a 100/150k is very nice for this comming bullrun. What we see now is a accumulation zone. We need to let bitcoin rest. And i think you can add position add $6000. The accumulation zone is uptrending to the halvening. if we break this accumulation zone and break 11k i think there is another scenario then this. But if that happens it could be a really different rally than the previous. Lets see what happend the comming years! Goodluck you future millionaire! i am sorry if there are any faults in chart or the post. Follow me for more crypto and like this post if u agree!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mikki0416
6
Bitcoin printed the most violent upside reversal of its HistoryThis chart is saying a massive F*ck you to the herd who joined late for the easy money end of 2017, who panic sold thinking it would tank to zero or close to it. This market is punishing this herd who probably panic sold between 6k and 3k. These punishing reversals type of moves are happening in almost every market cycles. They are the perfect symmetrical opposite moves as the punishing raising parabolas who trap the herd that thinks the asset will keep on raising forever close to the top of the cycle. Bitcoin is now probably going to keep on raising brutally and progressively, as these same late investors and newcomers are about to Fomo and frenzy join successively, as they realise this asset is not going to zero. Market cycles.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Giovi6969
7
Tesla (bag)holders on Robinhood are at all time high :)I should make a video so you can hear me laugh. At Tesla baggies face. But it is late here. Robinhood = free trading "app" for complete casuals. It attracts complete noobs that look for an easy way to speculate and do not care / understand about quality of service. It's really the noob magnet. Reminds me of something... Oh right. Every single bear market ever. Whales dumping. Morons buying "cheap". Enjoy these bags. This time it's different. This wall street cheat sheet or whatever you want to call it, just a general guide... Can look very different in some cases: But I think for the "big stuff" with alot of participants, the patterns will be very much like that. K that is enough examples for today. Just keep an eye on Tesla, see how it goes, next Tesla will be similar. Continuous learning. And BitconnectCoin too. This is what institutions do btw. From what I heard + would bet 99%. + Wall street cheat sheet is their "10 commandments". Market cycles / Elliot waves, more or less the same thing.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by MrRenev
19
Bull Flag in Bitcoin Market Cap Dominance Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Quick update, without the normal comprehensive TA. What I think is most important right now is the Bitcoin Market Cap Dominance (BTC.D). This is my main indicator to identify alt seasons vs salt seasons. The best alt seasons happen when: BTC is in a bull market and market cap dominance is > 70%. Conversely when market cap dominance is less than 60% it is usually a good indicator to sell alts. The target from the bull flag is 77%. Furthermore I think this is a very strong confirmation of a bottom in Bitcoin. Throughout this bear market any time BTC has pumped, alts have pumped more. Now we are seeing BTC pump and alts sell off vs BTC. This is exactly what we saw at the beginning of the 2016 bull market. This combined with the EMA's starting to signal a reversal has me sitting up in my seat. That being said I am not viewing this as an opportunity to buy BTC. We are at resistance and well overdue for a correction. Instead what I've been doing is shorting ETH:BTC and longing ETH:USD as a hedge. If BTC continues going up then alts should continue selling off vs BTC but not necessarily USD. If BTC goes down then alts should selloff across the board and I will exit my ETH:USD long. If all works out then I can use the ETH:BTC short to hedge BTC spot purchase(s) when it eventually corrects. Hopefully that all makes sense, if not feel free to ask questions!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by Sawcruhteez
4
Bitcoin - Bear Market ComparisonTraders, I believe you will like the facts put forward in today's analysis on the weekly chart for bitcoin, it's a simplistic overview of what I see happening right now. My main focus is the comparison between the current and previous bear market, there are a lot of similarities between both cycles that we can use to our advantage. Firstly I'd like to talk about the overall decline in both market cycles. During 2013 to 2015 bitcoin dropped from $1170 to $150 resulting in a decline of 87% which lasted 413 days. During 2017 to 2019 bitcoin dropped from $20000 to $3140 resulting in a decline of 84.40% which lasted 364 days. The percentage decrease and timespan are extremely similar in both cases, you'll find an in-depth calculation of bitcoins movements from my post regarding cyclical measurements below. Going forward if I find this would be helpful to other traders I may revise and update the measurements shown in "Bitcoin - Cyclical Measurements" so they are more relevant in the current bitcoin market. Moving onto my next focus point in today's analysis... The re-test of weekly resistance following the recently found "market bottom" which can be seen in both cycles as shown in my analysis. Let's take a look at the price action from 2015 to provide more detail on what I'm really looking at. As you can see this level held extremely well prior to price declining to $150, this support turned key resistance prevented a breakout during early July 2015, which was quickly followed up by a decline of 37.70% lasting 49 days. Only after this decline did price experience a breakout and continuation to the upside which resulted in a 2 year bull market and ultimately leading to the current all time high of $20,000 after years of progression. When we take a look at the current price action for bitcoin, it holds a similar structure. The resistance bitcoin is now testing is much stronger than before, this support level held for 9 months with at least 5 separate tests in which it finally broke during November 2018. For anyone looking at bitcoin I would pay close attention to the next few weekly candlesticks, mainly their closing prices and figure out what it is suggesting short-term. It is highly likely bitcoin will fall short at this weekly resistance level and history will repeat itself, the bulls will be put back in their place (for now) and we'll experience a minor correction either to the support trendline or a similar decline to the previous cycle... 37.70%? A smaller correction to the trendline would result in a decline of 20% or less which is unlikely, if a sell-off does happen it's likely it'll break that area and push further towards $4,000. As mentioned this all depends on the price action in the following weeks. This post is open to discussion, feel free to leave your own analysis below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LewisGlasgow
44