Is BTCUSDT going to behave like the main 20k to 3k cycle?Here ist he 20k to 3k market cycle bar pattern overlapped with the last BTC rally.
Marketcycle
Tesla complacency is over. Watch it crash and burn. Dumb scam.Can you imagine a Tesla bull say "evil big money they knew" when all this information was available to the public?
I would not be surprised actually. I don't get how clowns like this get involved.
Nyways this is the story:
Elon & Kimbal start in 1995 with a dot com company named Zip2, with money raised from a small group of angel investors.
They took advantage of the dot com bubble hype to rapidly become millionaires.
In March 1999, at the peak of the dot com bubble when irrational exuberance was off the charts Elon made 165 million $ from selling X.com one of the first online banks. It merged with another company that had a product named paypal. We do not know how much of X.com is into paypal. Elon gets kicked as a CEO because he has too many bad ideas and paypal goes on to become successful without him.
In 2001 Elon Musk starts SpaceX, another hype ponzi - er I mean company, that attracts alot of interest from the public.
All along the way Elon works on his personality cult.
In 2003 Tesla comes to existence. It is supposed to change the world, starts with luxury cars, then switches to cheaper ones. Lots and lots of hype around it.
The company has not had a profitable year since its creation, interestingly its r&d green budget is one of the lowest of all car companies.
2006: SolarCity, to have "clean energy" and "save the planet" hype hype. One of the world's biggest polluters. Who knows, we might all die from all the heavy metal they dumped in nature. Great. Disgusting.
Apart from that he started all kinds of hype projects. Dozens of them. He just likes throwing hype ideas around. That's literally all he did his whole life and became a billionaire for it. Throw around dozens of ideas start a business and then that's it. Nothing never gets done nothing ever becomes successful (unless his company merges with another one and he gets kicked as CEO). I am sure every one has had the pleasure to meet people like this in their lives "oh ye i'll do this and this and that" taking plenty of responsabilities, too much to be able to respect them, and of course nothing gets done.
Tesla is just another name for "Elon Musk reality show". It's all hype, and unsurprisingly it attracted all kinds of idiots.
I wonder how many "Bitcoin true believers" are also "Tesla true believers", I am curious to know if it is 99.7% or 99.8%.
The facts were available to every one. Company is trash. Complete scam.
The big whales have dumped on all these "true believers" fools, and once again, like every single time, the public is now rekt.
Every one knows how this work, yet, somehow "Nooo I won't sell 'they' want to buy my stock cheap". I don't even get it. Last 500 billion times it happened the same way. W/e.
EVERY TIME.
If someone wants to invest in EV, there are plenty others. And hybrids are really good, better. Guess what works? Taking it slow, one step at a time, and making sure everything works smoothly. Saying you want to go from 0 to 100 gets the public excited. Saying you want to build a colony on Mars gets the public excited. But the public is made of idiots, and changes have to be progressive. Hybrids are really good, the perfect compromise, and the first step. Some EV are great but really expensive as of now.
Once again, Elon bite off more than he could chew.
He can't help himself, he just loves to start futuristic stuff that is bound to failure: Gigafactory Hyperloop Hyperloop Neuralink.
And he spends his time seducing people, and when someone doesn't fall for it he gets angry. Typical. So funny. pretty sad too.
This is how it usually looks like
And zooming in on the bear part
Remember when Bitcoin broke the downtrend & had a golden cross and the bear market was over?
I'll end with just 1 word:
Theranos.
BTC bottom 14th October 2019, next top February 2023I'm no mathematician so I kind of pulled these numbers out my ass to be honest. But hear me out.
Assuming the trend continues (on increasing market cycle time), then these are some guesstimated numbers of this market cycle's bottom and top.
Pink vertical line is bottom, orange is top.
Bottom this autumn, with next top in 2022/2023.
Also note the time the market bottoms as a percent of the total trend time is getting later and later.
In the first cycle it bottomed at 18% of the cycle length, while the second cycle bottomed at 27% of the cycle length.
Believe it or not I'm not stoned making this post.
My guess is cryptos going to get real boring this year. Good luck everyone.
Market recession?There have been many talks about a recession, every youtube/facebook guru and their mom was talking about it, and although the market crashed late last year it was quite uneventful to the average individual. And we got quite a bull run afterward however, I believe the actual recession hasn't hit yet. on the 22nd of March, the 10-year U.S bond yield curve became equal to the 3-month curve. This shows a strong sentiment within investors, it shows a lack of confidence in economic prosperity within the years to come.
the chart shows a loss in momentum and the downward curve of my macd indicator confirms it. conversely, this could be a flat pattern forming and waiting for a next impulse upwards. but I wouldn't hold my breath.
I believe a second crash is imminent, my analysis is price based and not bound to time, this may take years or days to play out.
set ups*
be on the lookout for a strengthening yen and safe-haven assets like gold.
commodity (oil) correlated assets like cad MIGHT weaken, this will play out with my analysis on UCAD.
Important: Macro Market Cycle - T.A VersionHey Everyone!
First, here's a static picture of the chart we'll be discussing.
Something I do very often is get lost in the charts, comparing old data to new, recycling old methods and even memeing technical analysis like the Wall Street Cheat Sheet based off psychology.
Today, I decided instead of overlaying the two like I would usually do, was to just re create it. With some simple, yet effective technical analysis to understand why each of those points are labelled what they are.
After diving into it, The following is very clear :
1) That this is only a possibility, it's a simple interpretation of a chart that is based off psychology. We could still be at any given point of this chart on the grand scheme of things. I've picked this time zone based off when $BTC/$USDT pairing became available on Binance.
2) That simple technical analysis lined up with emotion, made much more sense as to why the traders at the time would feel the emotions that they did.
3) That the general feeling in the market right now is that of a possible disbelief, which would mean the bottom may well just be in based off a psychological point of the market
Let's zoom into each of these points and understand them more.
On the way up..
Disbelief , after finally rallying ~ a head and shoulders formed and completed, sending price dropping quickly. buyers quickly jumped in and a healthy double bottom/adam and eve pattern followed.. leaving a nice big wick on the bigger time frames. After forming another small head and shoulders and dropping, buyers quickly stepped in at support, and price sky rocketed in Disbelief . See image here:
Hope , after breaching above the previous high, price found a top just shy of a round number and then proceeded to form a successful bullflag.when sent price back up, which then formed a healthy double bottom/adam and eve pattern, which then found support above previous resistance and sky rocketed again. Once buyers were exhausted, another head and shoulders pattern completed sending price sky diving quickly. Traders had Hope that support would hold and the rally could continue, support was held and price bounced very quickly. See image here:
Optimism , After finding a local top, price created yet another bullflag, sending price higher creating a new high. Once found, price started to form an inverse head and shoulders and completed it, sending price sky rocketing once again. Another local top was found, and a bullflag was painted, however it was a very erratic one, big movements within each candle, yet it was successful and price jumped yet again breaching the previous high. Once above, it failed to stay above and sharp volume sent price down quickly, but buyers stepped in and kept the candle body higher than the previous high's candle body, giving great Optimism for traders. Once price was back above the high, and found support, price again, sky rocketed. See image here:
Thrill , After buyers were exhausted, a volatile sell off happened, which recovered and became yet another bullflag that completed. Once price reached the previous high, it formed another bullflag completed, found support above resistance, which would have sent a Thrill down bulls spines as their investment was now heading completely parabolic. See image here:
Euphoria , The parabolic curved reached it's peak, everyone was in a state of Euphoria but most were blinded by greed. See image here:
On the way back down..
Complacency , A higher high and low were finally reached. The brutal sell offs had finally stopped. Support will hold.. right? The majority were in a state of Complacency . See image here:
Anxiety , After forming the higher high and higher low, we're struggling to get back above the first support we failed, What do I do now? What is going to happen? Am I going to make a mistake? What if price rockets after I sell? What if I don't sell and price drops. At this stage, the majority were feeling a lot of Anxiety . The head and shoulders that has been forming was looking to complete.. I had to convince someone I lived with at the time, it was finally time to sell before. He literally suffered from both FOMO and FONS at the same time.
Denial , Support just failed. Most stared at their portfolios in Denial that we were heading down much further yet. Supports failing one after another. The momentum was so great and swift that most did not know how what the right move was. Denial that they hadn't sold earlier at the clear signals to exit. And were failing to see what was playing out right infront of them, a bearish pennant, and two failed double bottoms / adam and eves. See image here:
Panic , Support failed, which turned resistance.. price can't seem to get back above.. but also won't drop below the current support.. a state of panic follows.. people began to Panic sell, and others were Panic buying thinking they were catching a falling knife chasing a dead cat bounce.. to only have price continue to drop past previous supports. See image here:
Capitulation , No supports held long, emotions are high.. words like ponzi, scam, manipulation etc were used to describe the market movements as some were coming to terms that they had been in Denial and did not want to lose further funds so they sold to save the last of their portfolios finally surrendering to Capitulation . Price dropped 40% in less than a week. See image here:
Anger , A dead cat bounce followed Capitulation . Climbing nearly 100% in exactly two weeks. It hit resistance hard but failed to get over, sending price back down, creating yet another double bottom / adam and eve and inverse head and shoulders which failed and sent price diving. Once a local bottom was found, buyers in large volume appeared in April, there was buzz back in the market. Joe Perl and I assumed April would be a target/local/temporary bottom for Bitcoin based off a large descending wedge that was also playing out. However, months went on, and lower highs kept forming and slightly higher lows also. Until a Death Cross on the 3 day chart seemed to be enough to throw us off the edge, sending us further down. Reaching $3,200USD. Price has since inclined and broken above long term trend descending resistance. See image here:
Depression , With very few people left in the market in comparison to the major bull run, most with wounds of massive losses in both loss of profit and loss of funds left the market. and still call it a ponzi, scam etc. Some suffering from deep Depression , and a few even taking their own lives who were highly over invested or apart of elaborate scams.. I believe we're currently going through this phase. sooner or later, we'll start to reach a state of disbelief. I feel we're getting to that point now with many calling the market bottom, and many thinking we're going to leg down again. See image here:
Once we reach Disbelief again, the cycle can start again. Just because we end a bear market though, does not mean we'll automatically resume a bull market.
Something a lot of traders need to learn is "Price vs Time". There is no schedule other than Bitcoin's halving that may change price. Everything else comes down to supply vs demand.
I hope breaking this meme psychology chart down shows you just how psychology, sentiment, technical and fundamental analysis impacts the chart. But, regardless of the all the fundamentals.. The chart never lies.
Thanks for taking the time to read this.
If you wish to join my community, check out my discord here: discord.gg There is a 'Paid/Premium' section to it also, which can be found here: 'https://www.bearbull.market/premium'
If you wish to follow me on Facebook, find me at: https:www.facebook.com/tradertroy for my thoughts on the market/trading. And also https:www.facebook.com/cryptobearbull for my business page.
My Twitter handle is: @Daemon_Crypto
If you're reading this, then you already have access to my TradingView.
And lastly, if you want to join a genuine Cryptocurrency community on Facebook, check out https:www.facebook.com/groups/cryptoforblokes
Historical Average Bear Market Studies.. Applied To Bitcoin.Quite a few things going on within this chart, but what I'm trying to convey is actually very simple.
The chart is based off a few key models which have been used with tremendous accuracy for over a century.
Model 1) Bear markets will usually last about 18 months in duration.
Model 2) Bear markets will usually last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull.
Model 3) Average Model 1 and Model 2.
Blue Vertical Line: 18 Month Marker
.. Based on the historical average duration of bear markets.
Red Vertical Line: Bull Run Divided By 3
.. Based on the notion that a bear market will typically last
about 1/3 as long as the previous bull market. Historically
this is very accurate.
Yellow Vertical Line: Average of Both Bear Market Studies
.. Averaging both studies gives us a mean and a "prime"
timing window to hunt investment grade opportunities.
Purple Vertical Rectangle: The Window To Focus In On
... If you're long term bullish on this asset.
Key points here:
1) We've already retraced well beyond 78.6% of the entire range from bottom to top (from $109 to $19,800) - What I would consider Investment Grade location.
2) If history tends to repeat itself or rhyme... we're in the sweet spot in terms of TIMING a purchase, being right in between both of our historically accurate bear market studies.
3) Comparing this pice action to the 2015 bear market, we're actually in about the exact same location as we were in 2015 when the market bottomed. Right in between 78.6 retracement and 88.6% retracement . Anecdotal evidence we may be bottoming now.
4) "Buy When It Snows, Sell When It Goes" - Old adage in the stock market which has merit. Should you base your investment decisions based entirely off a saying on wall street? Absolutely not. But here we are coming out of the winter and in to crypto's favorite time of the year. Seasonality wise, we consistently see the market lift in the spring and in to the summer.
5) Internally - **NOT shown on this chart for the sake of keeping it clean and readable.
*Volume breakout shown on OBV.
*Looong double momentum divergence confirmed, shown in the MACD.
*Embedded momentum oscilator trying to break out of oversold. I use a modified W%R, but something more common like RSI or stochastics would give you the same reading.
*Overall the Weekly internals look massively bullish. Just keep in mind this is a WEEKLY chart. Each candle takes a week to print. So this DOES NOT MEAN that you can expect upward movement from this point forward. In many cases after the Weekly charts start showing buy signals, it can easily take a month before any significant price movement occurs. So be weary of the timeframe I'm referring to.
6) Final confirmation for me is a weekly close above $4040.99. At this point I'm not "betting the farm," but I will be exchanging a considerable amount of USD holdings back in to Bitcoin.
The Great Depression Fractal - Part 3 (Blow Off Top Incoming?)Hey guys! Posting an update on my DJI analysis, since we're close to invalidating the possibility of further weakness (for the time being). As I said in my previous analysis, it was best to remain on the sidelines after the bounce from the 21000 area, since it was fairly strong. In addition, I indicated the possibility that we'd actually break the previous high, since this would still be in keeping with my great depression fractal. In fact, I was actually MORE concerned about a further rise. This actually makes me even MORE worried, as I think the crash will now end up being much more severe, once we've officially topped out. I actually hope we find resistance here and drop soon, for the integrity of the market.
IF we don't break down here and make a higher high, I expect us to rally at least to the top of the GIANT uptrend channel (the resistance there is real - just look at my chart). This currently lies in the 30000 area. If we break that resistance, we will likely have an even larger rally, and we will have to create a new long term channel. As you can see, in the late 1920's, we rallied higher before the final 90% drop.
Between February 1927 and July 1929, the DJI rose 233% from about 167 to 384. This means that we could indeed rise up to somewhere between 60-63000 before a huge collapse, if we break the recent high. This target is well above the channel resistance though, so a rise this extreme might be unlikely. I think 30K is more realistic. Either way, this would be an enormous trading opportunity, but it's unfortunately NOT what I wanted to see in the market. I would have preferred a recession now rather than later. This is far less healthy, and it just goes to show that humans have not learned to stifle their greed, and history may indeed have to repeat itself. This final bubble phase may be led by a potential Weed bubble (I can already see major news outlets starting to incite retail FOMO into this sector, even though the ideal buy in point was any time during the last two years).
Anyway, this isn't as long-winded as my previous chart. That analysis speaks for itself. This is not financial advice. This is purely my opinion and for educational purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
GBP CAD Looking to Short at Resistance levelLooking to short it at resistance level marked on the chart.
This week we are in a buy model.
Low of the week was established on Tuesday. We have approximately 3 days of rise. Week high was on Thursday.
Price rised to week high today. Currently on intraday level 1 Rise.
Looking at CAD news to propel it upwards and reverse on hitting resistance.
Current price to Top of resistance is roughly 66 pips.
This is not trading advice and is just a projection.
most importantly TRADE WHAT YOU SEE. :D
MARKET PSYCHOLOGY & CYCLEYou will often come across the term market psychology. This is different from your personal psychology. Market psychology is the same as market sentiment we just discussed. Market psychology is the overall feeling that the financial market is experiencing at any given particular time. There are several factors that contribute to this market psychology and include economic circumstances, expectations, fear, greed etc. All these factors taken together actually contribute to the trading patterns of the investors. There is nothing much you can do about this because, apart from hardcore economic circumstances, human psychology also plays a very vital role in determining the overall market sentiment.
The problem is that all humans cannot be rational. Many of the traders will be driven by emotions like fear and greed. As an individual trader, no matter how rational you are, the moment you see that majority of people thinking that market will move in a particular direction, your rational mind will face a revolt from your emotional side and even if you know that majority of the people are thinking wrong, you may still end up trading in the direction they are trading.
It is because of this weird conflict between rational mind and emotional side that you cannot really depend solely on fundamental analysis of market. Often times, it is very important to go for technical analysis too because it will tell you, without taking account of emotions, the direction or the pattern that the market is following. Technical analysis is based on historical price data. This is crude data we are dealing. They are numbers that are brutally true. The numbers don’t speak emotions. But again, technical analysis cannot alone give you the true picture and you will have to use fundamental analysis at times. So, market psychology can be like a dreadful nightmare but that is what you need to deal with by balancing between your fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Knowledge and education is key to success in binary options market. You cannot afford to be irrational but you cannot even ignore those irrational traders who can and do affect the market as a whole.
Bitcoin's journey to the new peak will be longer this timeThis chart incorporates the Bitcoin's market cycles inside the parabolic shape factoring in the halving effect.
The halving has so far occurred after the bottom of each market cycle was made so based on that (next halving May 2020) the new bottom should take place inside this February - April.
What is even more important than that is the lengthening of each cycle, which seems to trade on an arithmetic progression. Approximately 583 days are added to the length of each subsequent cycle. Needless to say this affect the duration of the bear cycles as well, which also progress on an arithmetic mean (252 days).
This shows that this time the market cycle will take long to reach a peak that should be in by August 2023.
NDX, such an obvious thing..Shareholders must find some diversification place.
The money has to go somewhere, it's physic.
SNP500 - 2018 Buy / Sell Orders - Correction & Market Crash2018 - SNP500 - BUY & SELL Orders:
PRIMARY 4:
SELL @ 2800 with SL @ 2900 & Target @ 2500/2400
PRIMARY 5:
BUY @ 2500 with SL @ 2400 & Target @ 2900/3100
MARKET CRASH:
SELL @ 2900 & 3100 with SL @ 3300 and Target @ 800
Follow me and trade like a Champion!
P.S. Exclusive guidance available for Members.
PM me if you want to join my Sessions.
The Great Depression Fractal Part II - A WarningI have a lot of thoughts to express, so I apologize if this is rather long. Since my first DJI analysis and short setup, we have dropped a good 14%. There was a chance that we could rally higher, sort of like we did before the Great Depression, but we've broken the bullish structure. Until we see any movement above the 26000 area, we can assume we will be in a bear market. I've read some articles trying to assure people that everything is okay, and that this sort of correction is normal. And yes, under CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES it would be considered a standard correction. However, it's extremely important to note WHERE this drop has occurred, in relation to the long term trend. That's why the log graph is so important.
My first DJI chart illustrated what a WORST CASE SCENARIO may look like, if the Great Depression fractal plays out (circled in green). What could cause a crash this severe, you may ask? I will argue that the bull market we've experienced since the 2008-09 crash has been artificial. The crash was meant to be much deeper, from a technical perspective, since we had made a lower low. Now we must reap the rewards of an economic system that is built on smoke and mirrors. I think this upcoming crash will, in the short term, cause a lot of pain. However, I believe that, in the long run, it needs to happen if we are going to survive. The overall trend throughout history has been towards a more global, unified society. A number of forces are trying to work against this right now (populist movements in many major countries like The United States, Great Britain, and Brazil). I think these movements will fail, resulting in a restructuring of our global financial system, amongst other things.
For the short term, we can expect somewhat of a bounce. In my previous analysis, I suggested that shorting the breakdown of 24000-23000 would be a good r/r trade. We have some support at 21500, so we could see some buying at these current levels, especially with the RSI looking pretty oversold, even on the monthly timeframe. This bounce, if it occurs, will likely be quick and violent, enough to wreck shorters. It could carry us all the way back up near 23000. If a bounce does not materialize, we will likely head straight down to the next support in the 18300 area, where we will need to see how the market reacts in order to gauge momentum.
In the long term, I think this will be a severe crash, with a target at MAXIMUM of near 13000. This would complete a 50% correction, which would be considered "healthy." However, I think we are about to witness something far more drastic, and I think we will need to at least test the lower bounds of this giant uptrend channel we've been in since we bottomed in 1932. Human society has changed so much in the last 100 years that we've hardly been able to adapt. Everything is easy for us now, and all we do is buy buy buy, even if we don't have enough money. I can't tell you how many people I met in the last year in the U.S. with less than $20 in their bank accounts who still wanted to spend money. I worked in direct sales for a while and plenty of potential customers handed me their debit cards, happy to part with $30, only to realize that they had no money in their account. I think people must be starting to become bored with all this meaningless buying. They don't know what to do with themselves. Even dating has become a tedious activity, and people are just getting lonelier, with marriages declining as well. It's only a matter of time before people wake up and realize that there is something VERY wrong. Only so much innovation can happen before we become complacent and realize that there must be something to life other than buying things. If one thing doesn't bring people happiness, eventually they will do the opposite. I believe this is the underlying reason why the expectations for growth have been diminishing. We're realizing collectively that everything is fabricated, and that the thousands of dollars we spend on Mac computers really doesn't make much sense, or bring us much happiness in the long run. I think tech will be valued less and less until it gets much cheaper because it is no longer "new" or even "necessary." I also had a conversation with a friend over the summer, and he said that he thought tech would just continue to grow exponentially without slowing down as we innovate more and more. If the majority of people believe this, it's clear we've been in a bubble.
I had a couple of conversations with strangers this past year, while stocks were still rallying. I met someone who made thousands trading recently and I told him Apple was probably going to drop soon. He asked me why, and I said because people will take profits, and $1 trillion doesn't sound like a number that should be associated with an individual company that hasn't really been much of an innovator in the last several years. Just like it was absurd when the crypto market cap reached close to $1 trillion, it seemed ludicrous to me that a singular tech company should be worth that much. The person said he thought it would continue going up. Apple was worth $230 per share at the time. It has since declined 37%. I also had a conversation with an Uber driver who thought stocks would keep going up. I told him he was probably in for a nasty surprise. He condescendingly brushed off my warning, as if I didn't know what I was talking about. "This isn't Bitcoin," he said. This was when the Dow Jones was still above 26000. I know I sound like someone who said, "I told you so." And well, I DID tell him so. The thing is, all markets can crash hard, if the majority collectively ceases to believe in something.
Obviously this is total speculation and shouldn't be treated as financial advice. I really just want to look back on this in a few years and see how accurate (or inaccurate) I was. I find this stuff really interesting so I enjoy speculating about it. However, it's hard to ignore this giant uptrend channel that has been carefully formed over the last nine decades. If we are to follow the "Great Depression Fractal ," we could see a drop that actually takes us lower than the 2008 low. This is based on the pink lines, which also seem to correlate nicely with the 1920's bubble. If this happens (yellow scenario), we will have broken the long term logarithmic uptrend for the stock market. At some point, growth needs to slow down, and I think now is as good a time as any for this to happen. This doesn't mean that we won't continue to grow. I just think we will grow at a slower rate in the future, as we work to solve major issues related mostly to the global financial system and the environment. Growth will likely be limited due to these problems.
All my possible bottom targets are in red on this chart. Our upwards momentum will likely be immediately suppressed by the rising trendline . We may need to meet it again sooner or later, but I think chances are much greater for a steeper drop soon since we broke our bullish structure. It's all psychological. If the vast majority of people realize that this thing has been going up for too long, then people will want to get out. It doesn't matter whether or not the banks are liquid. Just as banks have been responsible for us losing money in the past, we can be collectively responsible for the banks crashing today. If everyone wants to withdraw all their money, and banks only own 10% of what they say (as required by law, I believe), then things won't be good. For this reason, I think the U.S. Dollar is about to plummet as well and we will have a currency crisis. This is why I have hedged my savings with a cryptocurrency portfolio. I know it may fail, but I think the risk of staying "all in" on the U.S. Dollar is too great at the moment. Gold or silver would probably be safer investments, if one were to hedge, but I'm young so I can afford to put some money on riskier assets.
In sum, I expect this crash to be more severe than the 2008 recession, and that it has a chance of actually breaking the long term logarithmic uptrend. However, as I said above, I don't think this means that we will necessarily have an apocalypse or anything like that. Although there certainly could be enough mass panic to nearly cause a societal collapse. On the contrary, I think this crash will be healthy in the long run, and I expect some major restructuring to come out of it. Or at least I hope this will be the case. We will then experience a period of slowed down growth, as our society becomes more global and stable. Remember, these last few decades have been less violent than any other period in human history. I think our population growth has reached a peak, but now we really need to grapple with all the change we've created for ourselves.
Sorry for the long philosophical ramblings, but I do think it is related.
Happy New Year and stay safe out there!
- Love from Victor Cobra
Previous DJI analysis, USD, and crypto linked below.
$SPY - Reaching 2017 Levels$SPY - we saw the weakness we talked about yesterday in the market. Continuation selling for Friday. Still no sign of strength or bounce action. We will be looking around the $235 market where the 200ma is on the weekly chart as a significant line of support for the market to catch itself and get back on its feet. Scary times. Trade small we have noticed even trading the inverse ETFs like the TVIX, SQQQ, UVXY, TZA our hold times are much shorter. Inverse ETF bounces are getting bought up which gives us great opportunities to get in on support on TVIX when the market looks weak. Exciting holiday trading for sure!
Market cycle of 2017-2018 Bitcoin ReviewComplacency where there was thrill.
Denial where there was belief.
Capitulation where there was optimism.
Anger where there was hope.
Depression...
Lines up pretty good... unless that wasn't capitulation...
Bitcoin: still no reason to buy for now, IMOUnless you have some spare money and want to gamble, there is still no signal that this is the bottom, or that Bitcoin is reversing. Maybe it is bottoming, but we cannot know it for now.
This bear market could last another year, and why not another years, we do not know.
Bitcoin could reach the 3k support, or hit the weekly pink Smma
There is no guarantee that if hit, the 3k support and this pink Smma will hold Bitcoin.
It could reach the next support below at the 1k's, and could even go lower, we do not know.
Therefore, you and me are probably wise investors, so we want :
- to see Bitcoin going above the blue and pink Smma, and see it settling above them and use them as support to why not create another raising parabola.
This is imperative to respect that in order not to catch again falling knives since the 20k, the "buy the dip" technique is very risky unless you are a very experienced fund manager.
Moving averages is the most reliable and most used tool to manage funds, it is almost always right to long term invest into an asset using this tool.
Beeing on the side lines in Usd is a position, and there is absolutely no shame to remain flat and waiting for the time.
Patience is key.
GL
BTC final bull trapMy August-September-October forecast played out rather good, and nothing as changed since then, in terms of fundamentals.
In terms of technicals, the violent Tether-related action on Bitfinex might just give a little bullishness for the next few days, but nothing more in my opinion.
The fundamentals will pick up eventually, THIS MARKET NEEDS A FLUSH.
I sum up my fundamental perspective again:
1. there still exists zero useful Dapp or platform used mainstream and making millions of revenues, except exchanges.
2. the SEC is rejecting all ETFs, and they might never accept any. Because cryptos' functioning and spirit is rather antithetical to controlled institutional markets.
3. the total altcoin market cap is still up 150X since Jan 2016. Altcoin prices can go much lower.
4. A little sum up of how I see the market cycle developing:
2016-17-18: the world discovers cryptos and how they MIGHT be a revolution: incredible bull run. Total altcoins market cap 1000X (Nov 2015 to Jan 2018).
--- You simply need to be a project "with potential" to make 100X.
2018-19-20: the world realizes the deep issues that cryptos and tokens have to deal with (technical issues, scams, no revenues): strong bear market.
--- You simply need to not be among the best projects (you get the idea) to see your price divided by 100. Total altcoins market cap divided by 10-50.
2020-21-22: companies using distributed blockchain tech of some sort, or ecosystems using tokens, start to show revenues and be more efficient than traditional companies.
--- You simply need to be a legit company with proved clients and revenue growth to make 100X.
However, tech is evolving so fast, that nobody knows what will emerge and dominate in the next 2-5 years. Maybe these companies, ecosystems, and the next crypto bull run will never happen, you always have to stay aware of this. With that said, I do have 20% of my capital in 2-3 tokens that I really like (very small market caps), because we never know. And I keep putting a little more, every time the price goes down.
On the technical point of view:
1. large descending triangle
2. volume keeps going down on the exchanges and on the various blockchains
So this forecast is similar to the last one, fading price, and break out downward, but who knows when this will be triggered...
In terms of trading:
I'm almost always shorting ETH to hedge the ERC20 tokens that I hold, and simply because I am bearish mid-term. If we have a little alt season, then my shorts on ETH will be in the red obviously, but the alts that I hold outperform so much ETH when they rally that I would totally be winning overall.
If we break the daily 200MA (7200) and the lower high of Sept (7300), then it's another story.
What an exciting time!
Pump in wingsThis is not a signal, but we can see it as a very bullish indicator for the overall crypto-altcoin ecosystem. Whenever low Mcap tokens start to be pumpable, it brings awareness to the crypto scene. Brings new investors, People start to hold more BTC to try to get a piece of the FOMO action, and it can have a nice snowball effect.
Would you be surprised if we saw '00/'08 highs?Look for a failure of the price block highlighted, similar price action noted in the previous highs of 2000 & 2008.
We see the relative strength fade as price continues to rally creating regular bearish divergence, after the break of the trendline hidden bearish divergence develops as the RSI shows higher highs and price continues to fall.
2000 and 2008 were screaming at us to be short. Will 20018/2019 do the same?
52-week Moving Average displayed.
Short until a break of the All Time High proves us wrong.
Original idea by Jack
Original post to Tradrz members:
Bearish Divergence on the 1 day and 4hr.
Something to be aware of moving into the week.
Beginning ETH AccumulationStarted first round of accumulation yesterday in ETH @ $215. I think the bear market is beginning to round out it's bottom and will begin to recover over the next 6 months. We are nearly at 84% retracement for ETH and the risk to reward ratio is incredibly in favor of buying here.
Not investment advice. Just my thoughts.
Trump will save usBulls will be hoping for a straight bounce off the 200.
Bears will be riding the momentum down.
I do believe this is a test of the 200 . Shit can't climb forever.
Just short assets until things turn around
