Marketcycle
SPX: The Biggest Double Top of All-Time?As the S&P500 approached its all-time high last week, it was met with massive resistance in the form of more EM problems. I strongly believe you do not need to know current news to analyze price action, because they commonly work together. Price has been attempting to get over this ket resistance zone in the past six months, and has not been able to do it. Whether it be trade fears, EM inflation disasters or US foreign policy changes, the market has not responded in a positive way. This has led to my bold prediction that we have seen the top of the markets for the next few years.
A possible double top has emerged on the S&P500 between the 2870 - 2860 region. This could lead to a significant downtrend in the coming weeks. EM problems seem to be emerging themselves which could rattle markets further. The vast majority of financial analysts and experts have been calling for a major summer rally, which they claim could push major indices another 10-15% higher from January's high. However, I think this move would have already begun if it was ever going go. Whenever the crowd is calling for the same thing, it is important to examine the other side, because most of the time the market behaves opposite of what the crowd thinks.
Technical indicators are not bullish either. RSI is significantly lower than January's high, while price is only slightly lower. This is a sign of weakness in the market known as bearish divergence. MACD looks to be headed for the south side as a bearish cross reently occurred. It will be essential to keep a close eye on the 50 (yellow line) and 200 (blue line) day moving averages. If price falls below the 200 day moving average, it will be safe to say the bull market is over.
Similar signs can be seen my looking at the charts in 2000 and 2007. The technical indicators pointed to the end of a market cycle, while many financial experts called for higher highs. There is a good chance the market rallies to higher highs and this prediction is completely wrong. However, for the time being, I have good reason to think it will be mostly downhill from here.
Breakout pattern of retesting lows - BitcoinI Believe there is an 80% Chance we hit 5k
I see little reason for Bitcoin to fall through this support as none of the past rallies did - I Think we can consider 5k as the bottom which lines up quite well with September/October which would allow consolidation for December run as always.
There are a few other charts i have and have reviewed that would line up with this - Lets hope so :)
Facing predicted level for bitcoinJust a short wrap-up regarding my latest post. Against all American opportunistic traders...not to mention names here, who never admits any mistakes in their analyses, I think I was right this time. No further comments.
Steem OpportunityAnother great opportunity! Steem is a great project over all!
These are some of the better times to grab your alts when the markets in uncertainty! So much FUD people are selling and taking losses, this is when you should take action and purchase bags of your favorite alts - that are not shit coins obviously! You can add this to your list and keep watching it for cheaper entries when BTC starts making moves.
Use stop losses and trade smart :)
Buy in the down timesVery simple chart.
These are the times to buy in when everybody is pessimistic and negative about the market. Buy your favorite alt coins low and wait for the next super pump! Ill be posting more of your favorite alt coins that have great potential once the market turns over.
Pivx sitting pretty cheap - can keep accumulating this coin if it gets cheaper. Also dont forget to set up a stop loss just incase the whole market crashes to shit! All about the market cycles
[XRP/USD] Momentum massively slowing down; great bull outlookIf you're trading crypto's, looks like this is POTENTIALLY one of the best times to buy them, because they look to be massively oversold.
There are signals of price finding support now;
Targets up to 1.00
If it goes under 0.43, structure is broken
Populous Accumulation Phase [PPT]It seems that populous is being accumulated here, which the volume spikes and bottom indicates it. Usually investors buy a coin at the bottom of a market cycle and accumulate the tokens before a major pump, I'm expecting an altcoin season to play out and populous to follow. A good coin with fundamentals :D
- Buy zone = 10,000 - 20,000 satoshi
- Sell zone = 50,000+ satoshi
- I'm not setting a stop because i believe this will do great in the next 1-2 years
SO, TO THE MOON THEN? OR MAYBE NOT?Let's get right into it.
I was definetly wrong by expecting BTC to bottom out BEFORE some sort of pullback to the upside.
That's what trading & investing is.
You can't/won't be always right, and in case you were wrong, you SHOULD admit it and adapt to the most recent developments.
During my previous analysis, I mentioned the possibility of BTC reaching 9.500-9.700$ and it worked out pretty well.
I considered a bearish scenario as well, but it did NOT play out.
From now on, my trading ideas will consist of TWO potential outcomes, because that's what I think you guys deserve and makes most sense.
What I want to talk about in this analysis, is the log trendline which has been "broken to the upside".
At least that's what the majority is claiming.
When it comes to drawing trendlines, I've noticed that using the LINE-CHART is much more precise, because there is no room for individuality.
By using the CANDLE-CHART, you are given multiple options, thus being less accurate.
So I decided to draw this downtrend-line BTC has been fighting with for quite some time now, using the LINE CHART.
And that's what happened:
Notice how we're still inside the downtrend.
I'm expecting BTC to test this resistance by any minute.
In case we breakout, I'm personally aiming for a long position, targeting
11k (blue zone).
Depending on how BTC behaves, the bull run MIGHT continue or we'll get back into the bear market, making a new bottom.
The second scenario I'm looking forward to is a huge drop, once BTC reaches that trendline, forcing us towards a new low.
Watch out for support levels at 9.000$ & 8.300$
I'll kee you guys updated here.
Personally, I think BTC's ultimate low is yet to come, unless we get a sustained breakout above this blue zone.
Happy Trading & nice week!
ITS TIME TO BUY VIBE Sell targets are demonstrated with red lines. I think it time to buy vibe. Bulls are coming and vibe is in deeeeeeepp
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YETRight now, it's make or break for Bitcoin.
We are currently testing December's resistance line.
On the Auto-Scale, we broke through that line already, but not on the logscale.
The overall sentiment is bullish and I don't get why to be quite honest with you.
Yes, we had a 30% increase in two weeks.
Yes, we are forming higher highs and higher lows short term.
However, that does NOT change the fact that we are far away from being in a bull market.
People tend to forget what the longterm price action is telling us.
Notice how each time the RSI reached 60 level while price touched the resistance line, BTC dropped big time .
We've been forming lower highs since December .
What's so bullish about that?
Additionally, I see BTC forming a huge rising wedge on the daily chart, which, combined with the afore mentioned factors, is anything but "obviously bullish" .
The 12.500$-11.200$ has proven to be a key zone multiple times.
I'm going to turn bullish, once we get a sustained breakthrough at that zone.
Right now, I see three potential scenarios for BTC.
1 . Price fails to break through the resistance and we get a nasty drop towards a new low (I'm anticipating 5.500$ - 5.000$) and see how things go from there.
2 . We get a low volume break through and form some sort of a double top at the blue zone ( 9.000$ - 9.300$ ) and fall below the rising wedge, forming a new low.
3 . We actually get a trend reversal (less likely in my oppinion) and retest the 11k$ level.
Anyways, right now is not the time to take either long or short positions.
Whales are doing their thing and the overall price behavior is anything but predictable right now.
Price is increasing, while volume is decreasing.
There are random pumps & dumps taking place.
Before taking any positions, I highly recommend everybody to WAIT for a UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE CONFIRMATION.
That's it from my side, I'm going to keep you guys updated!
Regards
Shaheen
CAPITULATION IS YET TO COMEBTC is currently fighting it's way up and forming a rising channel.
I'm personally expecting a pop up within the next few days.
History loves to repeat itself.
That's why I expect the upcoming upwardsmomentum to be the final leg up, before we have capitulation taking place.
Notice how during March the exact same channel has been formed after price boomed to the upside.
We have a similar declining trendline forming right now (blue line) and it's very likely that BTC will break through, causing a further push to the upside.
BUT!
I do not expect this to be the trendreversal everybody's anticipating.
Capitulation is yet to come.
In case you've read my previews analysis, you might have noticed that I'm pretty confident about market cycles and that they always repeat themselves.
Capitulation is needed, if we want a new (bull) cycle to begin.
We haven't witnessed that yet.
You might wanna take notice that there COULD be a reason, why Wall Street professionals rely on market cycles ;)
Anyways..
In terms of BTC price behavior, you should observe the blue, declining trendline.
Once we break through, I'm personally aiming for a long position until we reach 8450-8600 level.
This is where I'm going to take short positions.
Chart explains why.
Also notice (AGAIN!) the similarities between now and 2014:
It should be obvious to you what's happening right now.
This does not exclude that I'm wrong.
I could be.
As a trader, you want the probabilities to be in your favour.
Right now, the probabilities are pointing towards capitulation.
I'm going to change my strategy, if the probabilities point towards a new bull run, which is not the case right now.
Wish you guys happy trading, I'm going to keep you updated.
Regards
Shaheen
UsdCad Market Cycle ProbabilityUsdCad Market Cycle Probability on the 1hr tf, downtrend still strong but price may give us this bit of a pullback before continuing back down if so.
SRN COMING BACKTheir project is produce cell phones based on crypto tech. Its tweeted that they compromise with Foxconn Tech. to manufacturing. I bought before the news from 3212 sats. All alts affects from BTC's moving. my opinion is btc will go down to 5800 sats so srn will go down to under my curve.
BUY ZONE demonstrated with green box
SELL ZONES demonstrated with red boxes.
WHAT IF 5.800$ IS NOT THE BOTTOM?Great evening everybody,
yesterday I made a recommendation on when to short BTC.
Everybody who followed my advice should have made some money.
Enough of the self-praise though, let's get to the analysis.
By now you should notice that the similiarties between now and 2013/2014 are NOT neglectable.
It's pretty obvious that BTC is moving much faster nowadays.
What took us 297 Days in 2013/2014 only took us 108 Days this year.
The blue arrows illustrate where BTC price is currently moving.
The main thing I want to talk about is this 5.800$ Double Bottom everybody is anticipating.
To be honest with you, I highly doubt that 5.800$ will be the bottom.
In terms of market cycles, we haven't witnessed capitulation yet, which is an important compoment, when it comes to an overall trend reversal.
Capitulation usually feels like apocalpyse is happening.
Also notice how during the 2k14 drop, BTC fell straight through the previous bottom and gave us a fake bottom around 20% BELOW the previous one,
spiked up, and rolled over again to the actual bottom, which was around 150$.
Personally, I think we will see the same thing in the near future.
From a measured move perspective, we could see some bottoming behaviour at around 4.700$, price shooting upwards BEFORE the actual bottom, which could be around 2.600$.
Take it for what it is and make sure to prepare yourself.
I'm going to hold my shorts and take partial profits until we've reached 5.000$.
Once we've reached that level, I'm watching out for some sort of bottoming behavior in order to take some long positions and close them before the final wave down.
Have a nice day & safe trading!
Ripple market cycle back ?As you can see on chart
BUY - 6180/6580
TARGET 1 - 8660/8900
TARGET 2 - 1257/1290
TARGET 3 - 1430/1470
SALT/USD New Market cycle 200% Just looking at this chart, you can clearly use a market cycle cheat sheet to compare the two and try to determine what will happen next.
- Notice the volume at the bottom, to me this looks like accumulation for the next pump cycle.
- Entry : $3 - $4.20
- Setting targets near ATH, tp1 : $5.50 tp2 : $9.20, leave rest to ride :D
BTC is DEAD..Wait...What?This is just some simple analysis for BTC through mid-April. Take a look at the respect bears played to the major trend line in white. If I were a betting man...(I am)...I would say we have found our bottom(6k) from recent all-time high(20k) and now were are either looking to retest the major trend from July 2017 (around 7k) or preparing to start a new market cycle.
If you are bullish on BTC like I am look for one of the options above.
If you are bearish on BTC look for a breakdown of the major trend. If this happens I expect there to be a double bottom at 6k at which point bulls will regain control.
Hope you all enjoy this analysis and happy trading!
Why Bitcoin is Headed To 8.1kWith the current 4 month downtrend we see on bitcoin, I doubt the volume shown in the past week will be enough financial energy to push bitcoin out of its trend. The FUD in the market is not over. Goldman Sachs believes bitcoin has to potential to dip under 6k, and much of the public relates bitconnect's collapse to the rest of the cryptocurrency market and is deciding to stay away. There is no Major hype for bitcoin in the next few months, and i believe something to look forward to would help significantly drive bitcoins price up. Since there is no such news, i doubt outside investors will be eagerly jumping in.
From a technical standpoint bitcoin is not looking good short term. The 4 month long downtrend will provide serious resistance at 10.3k, and there is also heavy resistance at 11.3k. I see support for bitcoin at around 8.1k and I believe there is a chance bitcoin could flat line in price at that level. Time will tell and we will have to see how the chart plays out. i am 90% positive bitcoin will not be heading above 10.5k in the next few days and will head the opposite way.
Thanks for listening,
Colm
