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Marketcycles

Biil Williams Aligator Indicator Explanation on BTC MarketCapHello Friends. Today we will explain Aligator indicator on BTC Marketcap Chart. this post has 2 purpose: 1)BTC marketcap analyze 2)Learn how Bill Williams Aligator indicator works First lets see how this indicator works: The Alligator indicator is composed of three smoothed moving averages. It is named ‘alligator’ because it mimics the feeding habit of the animal and can help traders pick out the best times to ‘feed’ on the pips available in a trending market. Here are the lines that constitute the Alligator indicator: Alligator’s Jaw This is a 13-period smoothed moving average.This line is typically visualised in blue. Alligator’s Jaw = SMMA (median price, 13, 8) Alligator’s Teeth This is an 8-period smoothed moving average. This line is typically visualised in red. Alligator’s Teeth = SMMA (median price, 8, 5) Alligator’s Lips This is a 5-period smoothed moving average. This line is typically visualised in green. Alligator’s Lips = SMMA (median price, 5, 3) Trading Rules: When the lines are intertwined or converging, it implies that the market is ranging (the ‘alligator’ is sleeping). The longer the alligator sleeps, the hungrier it will wake up; prolonged consolidation will imply a massive breakout. The alligator’s lip will be the first to move (crossing above or below the jaw) when it is waking up, which denotes the Begining of a new trend. An upward movement implies an uptrend might be forming, whereas a downward movement implies that a potential downtrend is starting. A trend will be confirmed when the alligator’s teeth cut through the lips. This will be the signal to buy in a confirmed uptrend or to sell in a confirmed downtrend. The signal to take profits will come when the lines start to converge again, which will mean that the alligator is now about to repeat the sleep cycle. Now lets see what happened in BTC marketcap According to this Strategy: We can see awakening of aligator from 9 march 2020 untill 12 april 2021. it shows a strong uptrend and aligator lines divergence. I show it with a Green Ellipse in chart. after that aligator go to sleep for a while from 12 april 2021 to 18 jan 2022. so we can see a Range in price and aligator lines converging. I show that with a Yellow Ellipse in chart. after that we see aligator lips and teeth breaks jaw and aligator awake in a downward trend so we approch a bearish market and i show that with a Red Ellipse. no one know how much this cycle last. after this section i think aligator go to sleep again and after that awake upward. please protect your capital and know about market cycles. we could see new bottoms so we must manage our risk. after that when diffrent conditions confirm uptrend we can buy again. Remember: Buy expensive but confident !!!NOTE!!! MY POSTS ARE NOT TRADING AND INVESTING ADVISE. SO DO ON YOUR OWN OPINION AND CONSIDER MARKET RISKS. Thank you all for reading this article hope that be useful for you. share me your opinion in comment please.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCEducation
by TraderAmin-KZ
ETHBTC, which is the better hold?Technical analysis through my eyes using market psychology. Refer to the BTC weekly chart for market cycle psychology reference, bitcoin bear market cycle we just experienced looks almost identical structurally. TA shows ethereum is a better long term hold than bitcoin. Drew from my touch screen toaster. What I wish someone told me when I started investing in my lifetime investing learning experience- Research market cycles and market psychology. Use logarithmic charts Chart daily, weekly, monthly and higher Don’t become emotionally invested Manage Risk Make your own decisions when it comes to your money Do your own research and find a strategy that works for you Decided to start publishing charts I would normally save as a private idea. This is not financial advice, only opinions. Feel free to reach out if you agree or disagree!
Long
by Dale_G
6
BTCUSD: Bull Market Peaked? THE RSI & MA Say "Maybe, Baby"This is not financial advice - just check my past posts to see how accurate they are. I have been greatly confused by this market cycle. I can't be the only one. Such volatility. Are the institutions responsible? China? Because of this feeling, I had kind of given up using TA to predict future price, but that doesn't stop me observing interesting pattern and posting them on here so here we are. My Observations on the BTCUSD Monthly Chart + When the RSI drops below 50, it is a good time to accumulate + There is a general downward trend in the peaks of the RSI + The 9MA peak lags the price peak by 7~8 months + By the time the 9MA peaks, the RSI already has strong downward momentum + Once the 9MA peaks and the RSI is below 70, BTC does not recover and heads into a bear market + The only difference this time is the price is CURRENTLY above the 9MA. Should there be a sudden price surge, the 9MA will straighten or turn up and this whole post will be a complete waste of time. Well no, it was still interesting to make. Let's see what happens. Any crazy predictions or anything you see in the chart, shoot in the comments down below. Thank you for reading and season's greetings to you all.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by fifty2kph
4
BTC/USD LONG TERM PRICE ACTION ANALYSISLooking at the Bitcoin history from the beginning, there has always been some sort of triangle form with a breakout and retest confirming the next bull run of the season. This is from the weekly chart and taking the previous cycle from about 3k (The bottom of the previous bear market) to 20k (The previous ATH) and projecting it to the future, it puts Bitcoin to about 200k USD. Forming a triangle as well. Now this is on the weekly chart so this could take anywhere between a year to about four. This puts Bitcoin at a 200k top for this bull cycle according to what history tells us. Remember, history doesn't always repeat itself, but it usually rhymes. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Good luck traders!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by SpaceBlobb
3
Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Ceiling Model V3This, like my previous two posts, is a model playing with multiplied moving averages. I found that more "spot on" cycle tops were seen when multiplying exponential moving averages, rather than simple moving averages. It appears that the relationship between the length of the moving average and pi is not really present here, as the 100, 200, and 400 day EMA multiplied by pi all correspond to the ceilings for each market cycle (2013, 2017, 2021). One may extrapolate that, if we are amidst a double peak cycle, the bitcoin price respects the 400 day EMA multiplied by pi as a "price ceiling"; And further extrapolation leads me to the idea that the next market cycle may respect the 800 day EMA multiplied by pi as a "price ceiling".
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by mcbridei
Beginning of the Bear?From this chart alone, it looks like the top may be in. With that being said, this conclusion is not absolute as there are still many other factors that could lead to the continuation of the bull market. IF we have topped, however, one can see that when price drops below the dashed green line, it is best to accumulate as much $BTC as possible before the next rally up. Crossing the dashed red line, $BTC is overbought and profits should start being realized.
BNC:BLX
by DanielDimes
1
Decision-time for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) - will bears take over?Back in January '21, I was searching for ways to algorithmically assess whether Bitcoin is in a bull or in a bear market, based on an analysis of its price history back to 2011. The goal was to identify ways to spot the end of the current bull market. The result was published as the Bitcoin Bulls & Bears indicator (here) on TradingView. The portrayed indicator, with some minor "curve fitting" adjustments, was able to spot the market cycles relatively correctly from 2012 on to 2021 (especially on the monthly time-frame). One key finding was the role of the Weekly 21 Moving Average as a key support. The story is simple: if Bitcoins stays above this level, we're relatively surely in a bull-market. If we're trading below, it's bear time. This is how the indicator identifies the market cycles. So far for 2021, we were trading only above this level. Beginning of last week, we began to eventually slip below. That same indicator is highlighting "bear" for the time this year. Is this really the beginning of the bear market? We will have to wait for the weekly candle close, or even better, the monthly close. If we're closing above the weekly support level on a weekly or monthly close, changes aren't too bad that the bull market continues. For a glimpse of hope, have a look at July 2013: we did a similar slip below the 20 MA's right in the middle of the bull market -- only after having Bitcoin 16x its price in the months thereafter! Have a successful trading week.
BNC:BLX
by dbtr
Sector Rotation May 2021 - Where is the money flowing?My last video about Sector rotation was in March 2021 where I talked about the Consumer Staples sector. NYSE:PG and NYSE:JNJ have so far performed to expectations. It is worth looking at the model once more now to see where the next potential money flow will be. From March 2021: Sector Rotation theory suggests that from market bottoms the two sectors that should lead are Consumer Discretionary and Technology. These two sectors did in fact lead the market out of the COVID crash. The next sectors to lead as the market matures are Industrials and Materials. These too followed the theory through 2020 as the bull market grew. At the market top Energy is supposed to lead and sure enough we have seen quite the run on Energy related stocks. What that means going forward if the theory holds is that Consumer Staples and Healthcare should outperform the market.
CBOE:ARKGLong
by norok
3
Bitcoin Market Cycles vs Wall St Cheat SheetTotal speculation for fun only. The Crypto community is definitely at the belief stage with the recent break out. Talks of the being a distributional structure are going around. Personally I do not see that myself. I am seeing an accumulative structure. Reasons why? 1. Lack of supply. Record amounts of BTC is being taken off exchanges and liquidity reserves held on exchange wallets has fallen off a cliff. You can view the data on Glassnode and Crytpoquant. 2. Repeated shake out / liquidity events. Institutions are constantly pushing price down in order to accumulate at lower prices. These sell of events are not sustained and absorption happens very quickly hence the lack of continuation to the downside. 3. Every Tom, Dick and Harry has not jumped on the Bitcoin or Alt coin train yet. Retail is here and coming in steady numbers ... but when your mom tells you that your cousin just bought some Polkadot and they sent a message for you to perhaps invest in Etherum too then you know its time to get out :) Take it with a pinch of salt although I do see some substance in it. I am conducting deeper technical analysis on a daily basis if you wish to follow or have questions let me know :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FX_TWIN
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC AnalysisHey guys this is my second post, just wanted to share some ideas about the previous market cycle on the HTFs and how it feels quite similar to the one we are in. As can be seen the first red horizontal line shows the market being disrespected by the 21 Week EMA (candles can be seen closing above 21 but there isn't enough strength to flip the sentiment). That is until market breaks above the 21 and retests it (red arrow pointing at retest point) showing there is strength to allow a continuation and market is respecting the 21. Consolidation can be seen indicating a slight cool off of the market before making another run up. The first red flag that confirms that market sentiment has shifted is where the 21 is broken where a fake-out then occurs indicating market is being disrespected by the 21 Another important oscillator to watch is the RSI, you can see RSI made a double top pattern from where the consolidation period started to where the market top was reached indicating a reversal was imminent. So far the market has generally played out quite similarly to the last cycle, its just the macro scale seems different than previously What Im really eager to see is a consolidation zone retesting the 21 before another leg up (similar to the 1st highlighted white box). This would then be a good time to fill up some bags possibly These are just my thoughts and observations, who knows how the market will play out, but history always repeats itself, thats for sure. Thanks for reading peeps
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by TrippyA
An overlooked rule: Wait for the gamblers to have their funMarkets in general sort of always manage to find the nobs breaking point. After big rallies, some may say bubbles, what is known as "dumb money" is attracted, and you might hear that "oh they don't mean dumb in that sense" if you believe this bs you know you are one of them. Where does this experession come from then? They used the word dumb but without meaning it? "They meant you didn't take the time to think" ye that's right, dumb money didn't take the time to think before buying, or before doing anything, which is also known as "being dumb period". Serious investors know these creatures, these "emotionals", are morons. They don't want to get all unpopular so they don't just say the truth directly. The market is not a separate entity, it moves because its participants move it. Those nobs that get all excited, the gamblers and the breakeven idiots, they prevent the price from going up for 2 reasons: - Gamblers buy & sell randomly, 1 because they are gamblers, 2 because they are stupid enough to be gamblers therefore are unable to make any correct prediction, if they try they'll be the kind to get excited twice a day and change their mind based on the latest fractal or magical secret indicator they saw (often accompanied by "I am a legend"). - Breakeven idiots love to breakeven. They buy randomly the latest hyped thing, might be a ponzi, might not, they are full random, if they only bought scams there would be some value to them obviously, but nope, full random. They are bad, they look to get rich quick, and hold bags. They hold to zero on the way down, and to nothing at all on the way up. After bagholding they get desperate to breakeven (see the GME clowns that bought at $350 and above), same with dotcoms. How many idiots were relieved they could finally sell their Amazon shares at $30? Congrats man you got me you get last word well done you were right to hold your bag. You got your $30 a share back. Now Amazon is $3000. So it's obvious what I'm getting at. Once these clowns get wiped out by a scary red candle after bagholding for years (Bitcoin first half of 2020) there basically is no more resistance, the few bagholders left will breakeven at key levels but it won't stop the uptrend, the majority of the breakeven bagholder herd got ripped to pieces by crocs when they crossed the river. Nasdaq, Bitcoin, etc. The more gamblers and breakeven bagholders get attracted to something, the more vertically it goes up after they get wiped out. And until they get wiped out the market never bottoms. They will never win. They are the ultimate illustration of what being BAD at something is. Fun fact you will always hear from the 1% of this herd that got lucky, the ones with survivor bias "ye sure this river is safe to cross for wildebeests just look at me". Wildebeests are the dumbest creatures I have ever seen, after weekend "investors" of course. The behavior, not sarcasm I am serious, the behavior is the same. Do you want to be on the side of wildebeests or the side of crocodiles? The survivor bias ones celebrate their "gains" showing their extreme ignorance, they act like the herd made money, but data says otherwise. We used to have robintrack for example, also the UK regulator which banned BTC in the UK but even in Europe because too many people were losing too much money. We could see visually the data directly. GME, Tesla... (GME from Citadel among others). With Tesla when they buy "the dip" and the price bounces they ALL end up selling on the way up, "breakeven", oh gosh myfxbook is mindblowing for this it's absolutely insane, the 95% on the wrong side of a trend, the average winner size and loser, the awful entries and exits etc. And while TSLA goes up no retailer buys UNTIL THE TOP, and you know exactly what happens: THIS TIME THEY HOLD. Get rid of winners, hold losers. Brilliant. They have this ability to buy at the very top, absolute genius. Hear some news then "sidelines" like they aren't late enough, then crack "OK NOW IS THE RIGHT TIME TO BUY"! The vast majority of crypto bagholders and "dip" buyers that were desperate to catch the bottom ended up missing out. Isn't that amazing? > Do not trade corrections in general > When the gambling bagholding herd joins, get ready to exit and then stay away > Let the gamblers have their fun, and get back into a market after they leave It has always worked this way and it will keep working this way. Gamblers will ALWAYS lose. Bottoms will ALWAYS happen once they get wiped out and never before that, no matter how hard they try to "HODL". If it's not clear enough, if a Tesla or GME or BTC baggy is reading, it's not just about value investors: TREND FOLLOWERS FOLLOW TRENDS. TREND FOLLOWERS CREATE TRENDS. THE PRICEY NO GOY UP IF NO TREND HAPPEN BECAUSE BREAKEVEN TRADERS ARE SELLING. TREND START AFTER BREAKEVENERS AND RANDOM GAMBLERS GET OUT AND SELLING PRESSURE GO GO HOME. THEN PRICE GO GO UP NATURALLY THEN TREND FOLLOWERS FOLLOW TREND AND PRICEY GO GO UP MORE. IF NO TREND THEN TREND FOLLOWERS NO SEE TREND AND NO BUY AND NO PUSH PRICEY UP. I'll make another idea where I get into this, more clean, and without using the word idiot every sentence :D Funny how bagholders try so hard to get everyone else to hold when this is precisely what is holding them back, ignorance and stupidity are cruel jokes.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by MrRenev
14
BITCOIN. Yearly CAM. road to 100-200k? Cycle comparisonThis chart takes the 2015 - 2018 and compares it to 2020-2023 Camarilla levels from daily up to yearly. use previous time frames prices action and plot next levels on the first of the years. (Example last 2020 Jan 1st. It plotted H3 and L3 (top and then bottom during covid scare) which is interested because on Camarilla pivots . H3 to L3 is just the projected range from the algos. I guess it is a good thing we had some fud to "explain them". How though.... did on January first. 2020.... did camarilla plot the H5 which was the breakout upside target... that got hit exactly on the last day of the year. Even though it was plotted 365 days earlier during supposed bear covid times. I am not here to convince you that the precedence of algos in the markets being more meaningful than institutions. However, These levels and their practice still get plays, reactions, and reached. Where are we now? We finished last year at H5... had a retrace after the yearly close. and to my surprise. We broke up and OVER the new yearly H4. Generally, in camarilla levels, that means to aim for the breakout target H5... which is waaaay up there. 200+K SO I sat down. I looked at all these yearly levels. and looked at the last time this series of bullish after the bullish event has happened based on the self plotting levels the camarilla system has come up with for the yearly levels. I was very shocked to find myself considering (where before I compared this year to 2017/2018) but I now am considering that we are actually in 2016. of a cycle. that will potentially see 110k this year and perhaps 200+ in 2023. That is if the habits and levels operate and the exponential growth factors turn out to be real. not trolling. I myself and normally a bear at heart. Actually, there is cause to be nervous despite those targets because of how price operates on these Red levels which I made a not of. Take a look. Take a read. Pay close attention to the price. its relationship with the levels. and the order of events. (like looking in a mirror if you can wrap your mind outgoing pivot by pivot and get bogged down with price considerations) from 2015 and early 2016.. and 2020 and early 2021 so far. I hope you enjoy the thought. good luck
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Gunslinger2005
4
S&P 500 To Repeat Cycle?Interesting to see the S&P 500 price action respecting this charted Gann Fan so many times since mid 2019. One would presume that since validated multiple times previously over the months that we are close to crossing the Angle 1/2, which would push the market into "Above Averagely Bullish" territory again. I pulled a Bar Pattern from OCT 2019- MAR 2020 and scaled it to today's price action. It is scary to see the resemblance of this Fractal and its movement once above the Gann Fan Angle 1/2. What is also weird is to see the reaction of the Bar Pattern off the drawn Resistance Trendline, which starts back in SEP 2019. Will this cycle repeat? Only time will tell. "DISCLAIMER: NO ADVICE. The information presented here is general in nature and is for education purposes only. Nothing should be considered to be advice. You should consult with an appropriate professional for specific advice tailored to your situation."
TVC:SPXLong
by Trader_Johnni