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Marketcycles

Tilray Long OpportunityHere we have some important market structure levels indicated, as well as a long target. Also indicated are three identical market structure levels with matching volume profiles - albeit on different time-frames. Since I don't routinely trade stock, I'm not completely clear on when this target should be reached, but based on the point in the market cycle, I'd say things should be looking up preeetty soon. This is purely technical and market cycle driven. I don't do fundamentals, and as far as I know, many people still see tilray as overvalued based on mcap. obv. some accumulation takes place first.
NASDAQ:TLRYLong
by bright_infinite
ETH/USD: Market Cycles and Investor Sentiment ExplainedIn this post, I’ll be shedding light on market cycles for cryptocurrencies, specifically Ethereum in this case, and how investors’ sentiments are reflected at certain phases of the cycle. Market Cycle Explained - We can refer to the graph in green, which demonstrates the overall market cycle - Markets undergo phases of contractions and expansions, forming peaks during the expansionary phase, and troughs during the contractionary phase - Overall, the market moves in an uptrend, forming higher lows and higher highs throughout Market Sentiment Explained - Along with fluctuations in price movement caused by volatility, traders’ and investors’ psychological responses are also reflected in the chart - Prior to a bullrun, market participants are at a phase of disbelief. They think that prices will get rejected at resistance levels, and fail to break out - After a breakout takes place, hope starts to settle in. People think that maybe a recovery to previous high levels are possible - Then comes optimism. People start seeing the bullish trend that has been confirmed, and start thinking that this is the beginning of a real bullish rally. - Afterwards, we have the belief phase, which is when people start to get fully invested in the asset or security. This is also where people start coming up with extremely bullish price targets for the long term. - The thrill phase. People start getting extremely greedy at this point, and start buying more on margin, leveraging debt to increase their positions. At this point, prices are still going up on a daily basis, and people are still profiting from the immense buy volume, so they lead in their friends and family to invest as well. - Then comes one of the most important phases, euphoria. At this point, people think they’re geniuses, and that they’ll be set for retirement next month. This is the phase were everyone is bullish, and the only thing leading price action is the momentum caused by new buyers - The price of the asset tops out and corrects, reflecting a complacent sentiment. People just consider it as a healthy correction, and that the rally is deemed to continue upwards. - Prices correct even further, stirring anxiety among investors. People start getting liquidated on their margin positions, and realize that the correction is extending further than they anticipated - The denial phase then kicks in, as prices drop further. Investors refuse to accept that the trend has reversed. - Prices drop even further, breaking all support zones, getting closer to new lows. Investors who have bought the top sell their positions here. - Due to mass sell volume, capitulation takes place, and investors start thinking that the asset was never a solid investment decision. - As prices consolidate around the bottom without any signs of a trend reversal, anger starts seeping in. People blame the market for being too manipulative, and the government for not regulating enough, and preventing such capitulation from happening in the first place - As the phase of consolidation continues, investors experience depression. A sense of betrayal and self-pity, as they think of how they can retrieve their initial investment back. - While they go through this negative phase of investor sentiment, prices break out once again, marking the beginning of the second disbelief phase. Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum is demonstrating this market cycle on the weekly chart - It has currently broken out of major resistance levels, looking to continue its rally upwards - Important resistance zones to keep an eye on are: $490, $620, and $800 - Important support zones to keep an eye on are: $470, $440, and $355 - Based on market cycles, as Bitcoin’s rally tops out and prices start consolidating, we should see capital flow into altcoins such as Ethereum - Especially with Eth 2.0, an event in which the shift from proof of work to proof of state takes place, we could expect bullish news to drive prices upwards. Conclusion In summary, understanding general market cycles and investors’ sentiment is extremely important. Possessing the mental fortitude to buy when others are selling is also an important feat that an investor/trader should possess to succeed. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
46
GOLD NEW ATH OR BACK TO TREND?Gold having recently fallen 11% from its all time high (US$2075) back in August is interesting. Usually used as a Hedge during times of high volatility in the markets, gold is taking what looks to be a serious retrace after 2 years of mostly uninterrupted growth. What's interesting is that the markets across the world have become inherently more unstable due to local government restrictions and the economic fallout of Covid19. The real unknown is where to from now. The US will hit approx $3.3 trillion annual debt deficit ending September 2020 which is the largest ever recorded, and spending has no end in site. Will the US continue to dig themselves into a hole and what will this mean for the price of gold? Above are some bar patterns taken from 2010-2015. Scenario A (ORANGE): Shows increasing growth after a mild retrace after 700 days as depicted between OCT 2008- NOV 2010. Again retesting US$2075 & consolidating against Uptrend Channel Resistance, before breaking through to reach new ATHs Considering we have only seen an 81.6% rise in price over the last 2 years compared to the run of 2008-2011 (180%), it is fair to say we still have more left in the tank to test ATH territory? Especially with the 2020 US Presidential Election looming. Scenario B (BLUE): Shows support being found around a potential Equilibrium at US$1770, which also happens to be a key Fib Retracement level 0.5 (Extension form 16/03/2020 to ATH) and bouncing. Followed by a drop after the Presidential Election Results causing a range to be form between $1700-1900. Eventually breaking resistance and the Ichimoku Cloud to fall back to previous support & the long term uptrend trendline. All Hypothetical & Spec but interested to see everyones long term targets and explanations. These Ideas are NOT 'Financial Advice'!. Scenarios are based off a mixture of TA and Fundamentals current at the time. All IMO GLTA. Happy Hunting!!! *Prices will differ depending on charts used
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Trader_Johnni
1
Short scalp idea ~ ($10550 should be visited soon) BEARISH BIAS We've seen 5 candles in a row (4 hour chart) that have made lower highs, once sell pressure picks up (could be after a liquidity pump or soon) we'll also likely see a lower low which should enable a descent to $10550 neighborhood. Lose $10500 and it's likely we visit $9000's again! "buy low sell high" ~ we're currently $1000 above since the local low ($9800) which tells me to short any pump i see until $10550 is tapped for a retest on the BARE minimum. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. So why do you keep longing the top and shorting bottoms? You vs your ego friends. The market is literally deigned to tap into your emotions and tamper with your bias AND YOU STILL LISTEN TO YOUR GUT RATHER THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS YOU MADE IN ORDER TO MAKE A TRADE IN THE FIRST PLACE stay broke idc the market has cycles and history always repeats itself sooner or later. -Yurlo
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Yurlo
6
Surf the waves of investor emotionsThere all all these stages, 14 in total, but this is too detailled. Good to know and try to guess but no one is going to get them right. It is better and more accurate to see the market in 4 cycles, or 6 if we separate the top & bottom. Market participants go through those emotions every time, with stocks, gold, crypto. Speculation in currencies and commodities actually serves a purpose, I would not describe market movements the same way (except precious metals). Let me describe every emotion, starting with a trending bull market: 1- Optimism: The market is clearly in a bull market. Investors think the market is likely to continue higher. Excitement: As more investors notice the uptrend, it keeps going up, probably faster. Investors get positive confirmation bias & expect more gains. Thrill: Every one is a pro and they start making big calls, stop acting reserved/respectfully. Bulls start to celebrate. Bears are disgusted. 2- Euphoria: Day traders & Mainstreet are fully invested. Forums & investing sites get record new accounts. Everyone is a genius calling for the moon. 3- Denial: "It's ok we need to cool off". Investors start calling themselves long term investors that do not care about noise. Anxiety: Bagholders, which is the right description by now, start to really worry. The price is not going higher, the "pullback" lasted long. Fear: The price starts to go down, losses accelerate. Bears start saying "told you so" and bagholders get triggered very easilly. 4- Desperation: "Pff I hope you're happy". Baggies finally start to call it a bear market. Bulls see no light at the end of the tunnel. Panic: Bulls that saw light at the end of the tunnel realize it was a freight train. Losses start getting felt. Fund clients harass PMS. Capitulation: Gordon Brown, head of Her Majesty's Treasury, "rebalances" and sells the bottom. Bulls cannot take it anymore. 5- Depression: hopelessness - despair - nooses. Bears are empowered, forgetting they are permabears. A few will feel regret and buy at euphoria. 6- Skepticism: Investors gave up trying to time the market. They got slapped many times and are now cautious. Bad time for any short term strategies. Hope: They allow themselves to think the worse might be over, and day dream about new highs, but still very reluctant to buy (10/10 logic). Relief: Many investors are back in the green, or around breakeven, and the "scary prices" are now far behind. The pain is over they can breathe. A few practical examples People are calling the top on tech stocks and calling it euphoria. It is BIG euphoria, not small 1/14 euphoria yet, prob. Once we go higher, when the REAL crash begins, gamblers will go "last time they said", "I held the dip in the second half of 2020 every one was calling the crash", and so on. The clowns such as "captain of the ship" Dave Portnoy will get all these confirmation bias, he will probably end up rekt in the end. At this point the stock market has become a ponzi scheme. Grandma and 20 year olds will hear that some random idiot with no experience got rich, so hey they can do it too, and every ignorant beginner will join and be euphoric for a few weeks, then depressed for a few months. Late buyers will think Portnoy is an "OG" and the new Warren Buffet, I will point out his flaws and laugh at the "master the legend", I will be mocked and his fanboys will flame me, call me jealous, "why attack him? I made lots of money thanks to him". And then I will be proven right as always, and the "OGS" will vanish away. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. I'll try some small buys on the way up, short sell at 20k and skrekt every one as usual. Not sure with these annoying US tax rules. Some other ones than stocks. Already have one for BTC so no point making it again You sort of always find more or less the same thing. In Forex this does not happen the same, I have my own dynamic ever changing way to divide market cycles, does not always work, nice when it does. Gold is a bit of both world. Depends the TF. Bouncing from a level to another This is how I see it for forex, 80% of the time just stay away but who cares, there are plenty of pairs and you can also watch a secondary asset class (commodities are the most similar thing). And 20% of the time be picky, go for the good stuff. Not that complicated. Seems silly to be zooming in intensly. Days to weeks holding periods is considered short term. I do short to very short term already, but compared to the average retail trader I'm like a dinosaur that holds forever. It is just ridiculous. There is no supply and demand laws it's all noise. What do they think they are? Manual quants? Don't most quants trade stocks? Aren't most professional fx "day traders" just bankers with insider info that cheat and scam retail of their savings? Legally... I crack up imagine the average week end gambler with his chart full of ridiculous indicators on a 5 minutes time frame with huge spreads in some choppy random market try so hard to find something why oh why? The goal clearly is not money. So what is it? A challenge? Sure might find something. And I might get a stronger arm if I keep hitting my nuts with a hammer. "Well if it works for you". The goal is actually money. Ridiculous. That there are so many jokers that think they will make MORE money, not LESS. Like they'll make 1% a day gambling on noise. I find the idea of day trading absolutely repulsive: waking up at 7, drinking his little coffee, looking at his little charts, taking some gamble at a huge cost, then getting out pumpus interuptus closing everything at 4 pm or something while the market is still active and just going to watch tv and proud of his day patting himself on the back totally oblivious of how stupid he looks, a sheep that got brainwashed by brokers. Beurk. Day traders equivalent to lifting are crossfitters with their little tight green and yellow outfits, elastic bands around the head and arms and legs, little crossfit water bottle, and little 2 kg pink or green or blue dumbbells, training their injuries, lifting their little weights, making sure they stop before failure wouldn't want to hurt yourself princess. I want to throw up. Day traders are to Forex what Slipknot is to technical death metal fans. Lmao just hunting for some silly pattern they read somewhere and of course didn't bother to backtest because nah that would be too much hard work. Calling themselves speculators because they have several screens 🤢 And you can't even mock them because by the time you say "haha told you" they already blew up and quit. This isn't stupid? A big watchlist = ignore 80% of the lesser PA. Pick only the juiciest berries. There isn't much to it. Looking at the random noise is the best way to get lost. It's like chess. Simple rules. But then it takes alot to be a master. Ye that's how I see currencies. I divide it in 3: - "Skepticism": 85% of the time. Not good enough for me. Not just trend following, even other strategies. Especially counter trend. - Optimism: 14% of the time. Trend following but also anything else. When most pros are watching. Will buy falling knives, not sideways knives. - Weeee: 1% of the time. Quick. Less than 24 hours.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
5
SPY (S&p 500 Index) Trying to Hone in on Fair Value?I was playing around with pitchforks on the weekly timeframe for SPY and noticed that the uptrend slope (as determined by the slope of the pitchfork median line) has consistently decreased: from 47 degrees in the "internet bubble" bull market of the 90's, to 33 degrees in the recovery (leading up to the 2007 financial crisis), to 28 degrees in this latest bull run up from the aforementioned recession. There is a strong power relationship between these three data points, with an R-squared value of 0.9966 (and, yes, I do understand that this is a ridiculously small sample size), suggesting that the next bull run (after the next recession...that might have already happened?) will produce a trendline slope of around 24 degrees. Now, the actual value of these slopes will change, depending on how far in or out you zoom into the chart (which explains why the values are different on the chart that I've uploaded), but they will always change proportionately to maintain a consistent difference in value, such that the R-squared value and, therefore, the value determined by the equation will still be valid. One way to interpret this (and I'm in no way suggesting that it is the most accurate way) is that it's slowly honing in on a fair "future market" value, wherein the slope will eventually be near zero, at which point the fair value will have been determined, the formation of market bubbles will have virtually been eliminated, and the price volatility will be virtually non-existent. Of course, it's a bit foolish to think that three data points will accurately project out decades and centuries into the future, regardless of how neatly they fit into a mathematical equation. It may, however, be a useful bit of insight into the next market cycle, whenever that happens to take place (might have already started?). The power equation that I've applied here is: f(x) = 46.697x^-0.476 where x = the number of market cycles since before the "internet bubble" market cycle (internet bubble = x = 1; recovery from internet bubble pop = x = 2; etc)
AMEX:SPY
by JamesBrown
Psychology of a Market Cycle - Where are we in the cycle?Psychology of a Market Cycle - Where are we in the cycle? This tutorial is related with "Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index" study Before proceeding with the question "where", let's first have a quick look at "What is market psychology?" Market psychology is the idea that the movements of a market reflect the emotional state of its participants. It is one of the main topics of behavioral economics - an interdisciplinary field that investigates the various factors that precede economic decisions. Many believe that emotions are the main driving force behind the shifts of financial markets and that the overall fluctuating investor sentiment is what creates the so-called psychological market cycles - which is also dynamic. Stages of Investor Emotions: *Optimism – A positive outlook encourages us about the future, leading us to buy stocks. *Excitement – Having seen some of our initial ideas work, we begin considering what our market success could allow us to accomplish. *Thrill – At this point we investors cannot believe our success and begin to comment on how smart we are. *Euphoria – This marks the point of maximum financial risk. Having seen every decision result in quick, easy profits, we begin to ignore risk and expect every trade to become profitable. *Anxiety – For the first time the market moves against us. Having never stared at unrealized losses, we tell ourselves we are long-term investors and that all our ideas will eventually work. *Denial – When markets have not rebounded, yet we do not know how to respond, we begin denying either that we made poor choices or that things will not improve shortly. *Fear – The market realities become confusing. We believe the stocks we own will never move in our favor. *Desperation – Not knowing how to act, we grasp at any idea that will allow us to get back to breakeven. *Panic – Having exhausted all ideas, we are at a loss for what to do next. *Capitulation – Deciding our portfolio will never increase again, we sell all our stocks to avoid any future losses. *Despondency – After exiting the markets we do not want to buy stocks ever again. This often marks the moment of greatest financial opportunity. *Depression – Not knowing how we could be so foolish, we are left trying to understand our actions. *Hope – Eventually we return to the realization that markets move in cycles, and we begin looking for our next opportunity. *Relief – Having bought a stock that turned profitable, we renew our faith that there is a future in investing. It's hard to predict with certainty where we exactly are in the market cycle, we can only make an educated guess as to the rough stage based on data available. And here comes the study "Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index" Factors taken into account in this study include: 1-Price Momentum : Price Divergence/Convergence versus its Slow Moving Average 2-Strenght : Rate of Return ( RoR ) also called Return on Investment ( ROI ) is a performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment, net gain or loss of an investment over a specified time period, the rate of change in price movement over a period of time to help investors determine the strength 3-Money Flow : Chaikin Money Flow ( CMF ) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure Money Flow Volume over a set period of time. CMF can be used as a way to further quantify changes in buying and selling pressure and can help to anticipate future changes and therefore trading opportunities. CMF calculations is based on Accumulation/Distribution 4-Market Volatility : CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX ), the Volatility Index, or VIX , is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments. It is also known by other names like "Fear Gauge" or "Fear Index." Investors, research analysts and portfolio managers look to VIX values as a way to measure market risk, fear and stress before they take investment decisions 5-Safe Haven Demand: in this study GOLD demand is assumed What to look for: *Fear and Greed Index as explained above, *Divergencies Tool tip of the label displayed provides details of references Conclusion: As investors, we always get caught up in the day to day price movements, and lose sight of the bigger picture. The biggest crashes happen not when investors are cautious and fearful, it's when they're euphoric and expecting financial instruments to continue going higher. So as we continue investing, don’t forget to stop and ask yourself, where in the chart do you think we are right now? The Market Psychology Cycle shines light on how emotions evolve, fear and greed index can come in handy, provided that it is not the only tool used to make investment decisions. It is easy to look back at market cycles and recognize how the overall psychology changed. Analyzing previous data makes it obvious what actions and decisions would have been the most profitable. However, it is much harder to understand how the market is changing as it goes - and even harder to predict what comes next. Many investors use technical analysis (TA) to attempt to anticipate where the market is likely to go. Investors are advised to keep tabs on fear for potential buying the dips opportunities and view periods of greed as a potential indicator that financial instruments might be overvalued. Warren Buffett's quote, buy when others are fearful, and sell when others are greedy
Education
by dgtrd
4
Bitcoin Growth Angle of Market CyclesFrom the origin of Bitcoin to the peak of each bull run, a trend line was drawn. Using the "trend angle" tool I found the angle corresponding to each bull market. Bull Run 1 (2010-2011): 74 degrees Bull Run 2 (2012-2013): 56 degrees Bull Run 3 (2015-2017): 41 degrees Bull Run (2020-2022?): 30 degrees? By comparing the angle of the previous bull run to the following bull run, a repeating ratio reveals itself. Bull Run 1 = 74 Bull Run 2 = 56 74/56 = 1.32 Bull Run 2 = 56 Bull Run 3 = 41 56/41 = 1.36 These numbers could be a coincidence, but seeing how Bitcoin has followed a logarithmic regression that seemingly revolves in 4-year cycles, it wouldn't surprise me if more patterns revealed themselves. So where do we go from here? To see where we might be heading, we simply continue the model. Bull Run 3 = 41 Bull Run 4 = x Bull Run 4 is the bull run that the 2020 Halving has started. As it has not happened yet, we do not know the Angle of Growth. However, by recognizing that the ratio between two consecutive bull runs is around 1.3, we can use this information to calculate the angle. 41/x = ~1.3 41/1.3 = x x = ~30 degrees What is remarkable about the "trend angle" I drew at 30 degrees, is that it touches the crash in March 2020 from the pandemic. In fact it acts as almost perfect support! (light blue trend line) On the other hand, I drew a curve that connects the peak of each bull run (white dotted curve). The area where the white curve and the trend line of Bull Run 4 converge is around Spring 2022 @ $100,000. Hope you all are enjoying this bullish sentiment as much as I am. On a side note, seeing these patterns through mathematics excites me because math is impartial. Using math to map the future eliminates the possibility of a Confirmation Bias finding "patterns" that aren't actually there. The truth is in the math...
BNC:BLXLong
by Riester
Possible Sell setup for DJI near 61.8% Fib There are many concern lately on price pumping so hard cross industry and countries showing a strong sign of recover, that been said. there are a show selling pressure previous that causes such movement too. This trade call is base on risk to reward 1:1.1 to sell near 61.8% fib level and ride down to the previous level near the dip. What makes me take this trade, the current economy is very irrational now, those who thinks that they miss the boat will start to jump in to push price further up and we know taking into account of the trade flows we might see those sell orders previous that yet to get filled or those people who are waiting for exit to start selling again. I do not have a crystal ball with me, but i will rate it as a worthy sell base on 2nd time selling and downtrend continuation. Stop loss is places at the highest high. No doubt that price might reach 78.6% fib level before making a turn. i am comfortable to snipe in at 61.8% without waiting for further confirmation. The upside of the sell trade, we might possibility to see such trades to break the year low and move lower if the market shows more pessimism. it will reach the AREA of SUPPORT even though i draw lines. Lets Name it 1, 2, 3, 4. To Structure this trade, Risk control tips will be taking partial profit at the take profit zone that i have draw out and exit on area of 2, meanwhile move your trade to the previous high and break even when the price close below the previous low. This will help you to limit losses. Good luck! Like and Share my idea if you learn something. Also Follow me for more updates.
TVC:DJIShort
by ZenithThePunter
Timely market cycle update: The end of an ERA & start of a new.10 days ago was published a report on how much money was lost by crypto illegal crime (whales baiting suckers to buy their bags does not count). Last year’s losses were up nearly 160% from 2018’s total of $1.74 billion. Hacks and thefts fell by 66%. Exit scams, fraudulent exchanges scaming suckers, and the such, went up fivefold. As I predicted in my wash trading idea. 4 days ago this hilarous FCoin CEO announcement "wupsie we lost tens possibly hundreds of millions it's gone poof we can't get them back there seems to have been a bug that we didn't notice even as we lost millions but don't worry guys I plan to quit crypto start a whole new business and make hundreds of millions and I'll be able to pay you back" as he was packing his bags to leave the country I presume. The current sucker rally can't be far from the top. I'd like to open a quick parenthesis and compare the most expensive and least efficient database ever created, BTC, to another interesting "investment" of which the promoter/owner Doctor Ruja Ignatova misteriously vanished. OneCoin investors to this day believe this was a wise investment and Ruja Ignatova had to hide from the evil "fiat world men" that are terrified of the crypto revolution. The "mighty halving" is less than 3 months away, and the current sucker rally could continue up to around 12000 until then as crypto investors turned traders hope they will be able to trade their losses back with no knowledge no experience no common sense, and as new investors that got sucked in around the top pray the price makes it all the way back to 13000 so they can breakeven (probably won't happen and they will inevitably "average down" and try to break even on the next sucker rally, never ending cycle). May could be the date at which the price tops and bagholders feel the burn again. I am eagerly waiting the halving, short for the price halving, when miners will not be profitable anymore and sell all their stock and quit. This is what I am expecting: I also expect crypto investors looking for even bigger suckers to keep defending pedophiles as long as they use their ponzi coins, and develop strong support for dictators and criminal countries such as Iran & North Korea as long as they buy their bags to escape economic sanctions. The biggest of the losses of last year come from an alleged Ponzi scheme involving crypto wallet and exchange PlusToken. 3 billions at once! But there is still alot more milk to drain from this cash cow for criminals and they are sure to keep scamming suck-er I mean investors till the last drop. When BTC gets to 1000 maybe this is the point where most criminals are out and grabbed almost all that they could? In 2013 smart people cashed out of BTC at $1000. Less smart people bought and got lucky enough to dump at 10k+ on dumb money suckers. For the past 2 years+ the suckers have been hoping that even thought the entire planet has heard of BTC by now, the price would go up to 250k for no reason and they would be able to sell to even bigger suckers. The circle will be complete when the suckers that bought at 5000-20000 "averaging down" will finally sell their bags for $1000. As you can see on the chart, Bitcoin in every bull market has had parabolic moves up. Since December 2017 there has been no parabolic move up, but there have been 2 down :) The era of parabolic uptrends is over. There used to be disbelief and more and more people got convinced to buy. A new ERA started: bulls all are convinced and buy in a linear way, but downtrends start in disbelief and accelerate down as more and more investors get convinced to sell. Long live the ERA of parabolic downtrends! Bitcoin will die, but it will be remembered as the hero of decentralization: It decentralized losses and centralized profit in the hands of a few. I hope Bitcoin will stay around for many more years, and we will keep seing desperate suckers keep trying to improve their failed project to bait new, greater fools, into buying their bags before they go to zero as they well know will happen but have always been hoping they'll be able to cash out before this happens. We will also remember Bitcoin as having allowed all sorts of companies to find investors. Companies that do not want to follow regulations do not want authorities to track them down need a decentralized platform with no one responsible, in other words, ponzi schemes and criminal circles. I think Bitcoin will rally from 1000-2000 level, but never see another ath. It may go to zero, but it could also survive. Bitcoin might survive with its original use case: buying & selling child porn on the dark web. Bitcoin should probably have many bounces on the way down of course, as the army of scam artists and prophets posing as "genius visionaries" motivate the baghodling fools of the world looking for hope. I eagerly await the price halving. And I look forward to the reasons for going up the army of BTC white knights will find, as well as their excuses when the price drops another 50%. What about you?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MrRenev
52
Bitcoin 2021 new all time high up to ~400,000$If Bitcoin continues to repeat the previous market cycle pattern. 2013 - 2017 reaching ATH (1000$ - 20,000$) 2014 - 2018 Trend Reversal: Bearmarket 2015 - 2019 Price Bottom: End of Bearmarket (200$ - 3200$) 2016 - 2020 Halving 2017 - 2021 reaching new ATH . Bitcoin ROI since 2015 Bottom to 2017 ATH was 100x Bitcoin ROI since 2013 ATH to 2017 ATH was 20x Calculating this we may have the next target 3200$ x 100 = 320,000$, or 20,000 x 20 = 400,000$. Considering this as a maximum possible targets, I will just pick an average possible target ~240,000$, because the exponential price growth is getting smaller each time, due to reaching economical limits. And of course we have to take in consideration that Bitcoin price always depends on USD including stablecoins such as USDT influx, and the central banks inflation rate, which may have an impact on Bitcoin price. Let's check historical yearly minimal prices of Bitcoin . 2011 - $0.30 2012 - $4 2013 - $65 ( ATH $1120) 2014 - $200 2015 - $185 2016 - $365 2017 - $780 ( ATH $19,800) 2018 - $3200 2019 - $3400 2020 - $8000 2021 - $19,999 ( ATH $200,000)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by digibyterussia
DESPAIR :-(…………..*. ……..*………* …..*……………* …*………………..* ..*………………….* .*……………………*………*….* *…………………….*…*…………..* .*…………………….*……………….* ..*…………………….*…………….* …*…………………………………* …..*…………………………….* ……..*………………………* ………..*………………….* ……………*……………* ………………*……….* …………………*…..* ………………….*..* ……………………* ……………………* …………………..* ……………………* ……………………..* ………………………..* …………………………..* ……………………………* ………………………….* ……………………….* ………………………* …………………….*
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoKittie
17
The 2019 Bitcoin bubbleTextbook psychological stages... Check Twitter TradingView Reddit etc. Check comments in my ideas March to June 2019. Baited a few guinea pigs to get that content. I will make a new idea for all time Bitcoin. I was using a "capitulation will come soon", but a new idea will be better. Will release it tomorrow, and link the important Milestones ideas in it. I will make an educational (free) website in the future and this will all go in it. Now entering "Tremble before the might of Bitcoin puny mortal" stage... The skilled ones understand this is a game of probabilities. Could top at 20k, could top at 30k, could top at 99k (0.01% odds), nothing in between (if we get to 50k we will not stop there). But the highest probability one by far will be 13k. Maybe a little under just like 2017 bubble topped at 19700 not 20k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MrRenev
22
Dow TheoryCharles H. Dow (with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser) founded the Dow Jones & Company Inc. and developped the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the big new thing back then were big industries, now it is big tech giants Apple Amazon Google Facebook... Next is going to be renewables and biotech nah just kidding next is a huge recession and WW3 and the end of modern civilisation too late to save the world). Dow created a theory that he descrobed in editorials in the Wall Street Journal (which he dounded): 1. The market prices everything. Whether the participants know it or not. Even future events are priced in in the form of risk. 2. There are 3 kinds of market trends. Primary trends 1 year or more (bull or bear markets of different magnitude, consolidation). Secondary trends are pullbacks in a bull market and rallies (sharp ones) in a bear market. Last kind of trend < 3 weeks is basically noise. (Personal remark: for currencies & commodities this is different imo. For the stock market this is valid and has been for centuries) 3. Primary trends have three phases. Accumulation, public participation, excess phase in a bull market. In a bear market distribution, public participation, and panic (or despair) are the 3 phases. Check Elliot Wave theory too. 4. Indices must confirm each other. Dow used the DJIA and DJTA (transportation) indices. Now look at well the 3 USA ones and the other continents too... 5. Volume must confirm the trend. Low volume indicates a weakness in the trend. It should go up as price is going up. 6. The trend stays the primary trend until there is a CLEAR reversal. (Tell that to FOMO moonboys) Let's look at exemples of market cycles. 2012-2015: 2017-2021 on the linear chart: All time, several ways to see it: 2018-2019: Best to just look at examples: Looking at volume... It's really not clear. The rule needs to be removed or changed. With Bitcoin in the excess phase we clearly saw an explosion, and then decline. And that was the top. Each market works differently but these cycles are seen everywhere. I wanted to look at the new one, Bitcoin. Let's look at a few other ones. Sugar ==> Dow Jones ==> Gold ==> Copper ==> EuroDollar ==> Tesla ==> Movie pass (LOL) ==> Rektcoin ==>
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
9
So what is the secret?Not seeing anything to trade right now, so I am just chilling, and posting stuff here. I am following 2 trading rules at once (do not overtrade & take breaks to relax). The best exceptional individuals dump on the early pros and savvy investors that dump on the institutions that dump on the various funds that dump on the twitter shills that dump on the baggies that dump on the best exceptional individuals that... Gosh, if we could only shift it all by one the joe "macdonalds" macbaggy could actually make it. So close. Yet so far. The secret? Not chasing every single move like a coke addicted chimpanzee. Choose the select few you KNOW are exceptional opportunities, and let the stuck struggling tryhards laugh at you for missing out. Let the FOMO crew laugh at you for "missing out" and "being so wrong about the trend", smile when you dump on them for the 10th time in a row and they start being angry and calling you mean "what did we do to you?". So I suppose you could say here to emotion is important. If you start whining because the general public and low tier shitfunds make fun of you you will NEVER be able to do this. Also, just having common sense and not - well, being a coke addicted chimpanzee that gets excited or panics. Facts matter. You get in for a reason. You get out for a reason. I will list 15 of the top rules of Paul Tudor Jones, I agree with most of them, well all of those here (just that number 1 does not apply to most of us): I find it very interesting that Bitcoin "traders" as in "not gamblers" have the exact opposite rules. They are very educational. Let me show you: They are just so bad. Amazing. Like they try to be as awful as possible. And they even manage to lose by trying so hard to catch bottoms like the top traders. They are even worse than "general public". This is why I love them so much, so educational. Just do the exact opposite of what they do. And you do not need to be the 1 in a million. Even the "various funds" make money. Sometimes they blow up too, so the rule "cut your losers" has no room for errors.
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
8