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Marketcycles

Next Bitcoin Bull Run Climax -Top Cap Derived EstimateTop Cap Derived Estimate for Next Bull Run Climax Intro A great indicator to use for catching the upper bounds in a bull run is top cap. Historically it has perfectly coincided with previous blow off tops. Another good one to use is the Puell Multiple . Let me also qualify this long positon as a HODL / long term position - not a speculative move. Description TopCap = Average Cap * 35 TopCap / TotalCoinSupply = Estimated Bullrun Climax Ideas/Hypothesis Please note that as the next bullrun occurs, Top Cap will continue to rise as well, which is why this is not an absolute value, but rather a potential range. I think anywhere from 50-90k is possible based on this setup. Peak/Plateau Cycle After a climax, and during a bear market, the top cap will continue increasing until it reaches a plateau point. I call this "Peak to Plateau." Then it goes flat for a bit and starts increasing again as the next bull cycle materializes. 'I call this Plateau to Peak." As time goes on, the percent increase of each peak/plateau phase is diminishing (as other indicators corroborate as well, such as the Mayer Multiple or MVRV). Your thoughts? Do you have an opinion or idea regarding Top Cap, or the price projections here? I would love to hear your input so I can further refine and improve the indicator! Closing Remarks Enjoying this indicator/idea or find it useful? Please give me a like and follow! I post crypto analysis, price action strategies and free indicators regularly. Questions? Comments? Want to get access to an entire suite of proven trading indicators? Come visit us on telegram and chat, or just soak up some knowledge. We make timely posts about the market, news, and strategy everyday. Our community isn't open only to subscribers - everyone is welcome to join. For Trialers & Chat: t.me
BNC:BLXLong
by theheirophant
STILL BULLISH! LONG TERM CHART OF BTC! RELAX, I HAVE PROOF!Hello everyone! I have a fresh, juicy idea straight from the trees, its even greater than all my previous posts put together, and I mean it. However, I agree its tiresome to read, and I don't want every post to be like this, but this one is an exception because I have something really important to say. As you know I have a habit of writing very long posts, I have too many thoughts in my mind, and I usually jam them all into 1 post, which is not good for you guys, so what I'll do in the future is write each idea separately and focus straight to the point. This post will be looking at the entire history of BTC, from start to finish. We'll be looking at this chart from a birds eye view to truly understand the big picture of BTC. The future is bright and awaits us with many more phenomenal things to come, its exciting times, I can't stress that enough. TECHNICAL POINTS For reference, here's the legend for my chart: Blue lines = Long term support & resistance Pink lines = Short term support & resistance Green patch = Bull market Red patch = Bear market Grey patch = Consolidation phase Purple dotted line = BTC halvings Black line = DNM Support What you're seeing is a long term chart of BTC, I changed the view to log instead of auto, with this change we can clearly see that there is a massive yet gradual uptrend. We're bouncing off trend line supports and resistances on the weekly, the entire chart is going on an uptrend. If you look at the RSI, its telling us the same exact story. I don't see anything going to 0 here. It can only go up, there's literally no indicator saying that we're heading down, this is why I'm extremely confident, if anyone tells you otherwise, ask them for proof, which they probably don't have, because they're most likely "when moon lambo kids" who don't understand a thing about markets. I'm not saying I'm 100% right, but if you disagree with me, then by all means feel free to challenge my idea, I'm always open to a civilised conversation, write what you guys think in the comments. MARKET CYCLES The entire history of BTC looks astounding, and it only gets better from here. If you just look at the chart, you can see patterns that are very repetitive and predicatable, in a very good way. What you're seeing is just the beginning of BTC. Just like any market, BTC goes through cycles, we're currently on the 4th cycle, and its going to do the same thing as before. You see, every cycle goes through 3 stages, the grey stage, green stage, and red stage. If you look at very start of the chart, BTC starts off as grey, which is known as the consolidation stage, its going through a build up moment. After the grey stage, the price gradually goes up, and transitions to the green stage, thus starting a bull run. Once it reaches an all time high, it will create a resistance. The price will then pull back, cooling down from ATH and then begin its next phase, the bear market, also known as the red stage. The red stage is the end of every cycle. So it goes grey, green, and red, and it repeats itself in that sequence, just like traffic lights, think of the market cycles as traffic lights. Its done the same thing 3 times in the past 10 years, we're currently in the 4th cycle as mentioned previously. As of today, we're still in the grey stage, and according to my calculations, the grey stage will end at around October, Q4. Once October ends, we will see new highs, the market sentiment will change and we'll see a bull market emerging, this is the proof I'm talking about. You have to ask yourself, name me one bear market that wasn't followed by a bull market? FUNDAMENTAL POINTS To spice up my analysis, I'm going to talk about the fundamental side of things. You see, the purple dotted lines in the chart shows the date of the BTC halvings, every time there's a halving, a bull run triggers, fundamentally. Mining rewards get halved every 4 years, that means supply becomes low and scarce, causing the demand to increase, when demand increases, price increases. The coin is hard coded in the system to make itself explode every 4 years. There's one more fundamental point I want to make, its about the black line. Now, say what you want about bitcoin but what I'm about to tell you is a hard cold fact, there's no denying this. BTC's history is infamous. Cyber criminals used BTC to buy and sell drugs, as well as other illegal goods and services back in the early days of silk road, and is still being used to this very day except operated with a different marketplace. With that said, 5% of the total market cap of BTC is used for the dark net markets. BTC's dominance is currently $93,639,254,464, and 5% of that is $4,681,962,723, if you divide by the circulating supply, you get 5% of the current price. For reference, Here's my formula: (BTC Dominance * 0.05) / (Circulating Supply) = Price of BTC in the Dark Net Economy This is where the black line support comes from, when people say BTC is going to 0, they have absolutely no clue, its hilarious, they're just speaking from emotion with no solid evidence. Its literally impossible for it go to 0 when there's an underground economy happening right under our noses. If bitcoin magically dies, criminals will still use it with or without you, thus creating that black line for themselves. The Dark Net has been around for a very long time, good luck trying to take it down, because the FBI can't do it either. So there you have it, my TA and FA in one post. I place my bets on October, thats the timeframe I see when we transition into a bull market, I can't really put a price tag on it now but I know the next bull market is going to be insane, like literally mentally insane. The facts and figures are all there, its up to you to guess what you want the price to be, and it doesn't really matter because we're all going to be rich either way. Thank you for your time ladies and gentlemen, I wish you all a fantastic day! Twitter: @cyber_stocks Discord: CyberStocks#9378 Join my favourite community on discord: discord.gg Feel free to support me, any help is appreciated. All funds will directly support my personal finances, and most importantly, my mission of building an online brand :) BTC Donations: 1AuZiofHSqM5gV1ttxUddNovDhEtHgMUgA
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CyberStocks
STILL BULLISH 2019! LONG TERM CHART OF BTC! RELAX, I HAVE PROOF!Hello everyone! I have a fresh, juicy idea straight from the trees, its even greater than all my previous posts put together, and I mean it. However, I agree its tiresome to read, and I don't want every post to be like this, but this one is an exception because I have something really important to say. As you know I have a habit of writing very long posts, I have too many thoughts in my mind, and I usually jam them all into 1 post, which is not good for you guys, so what I'll do in the future is write each idea separately and focus straight to the point. This post will be looking at the entire history of BTC, from start to finish. We'll be looking at this chart from a birds eye view to truly understand the big picture of BTC. The future is bright and awaits us with many more phenomenal things to come, its exciting times, I can't stress that enough. TECHNICAL POINTS For reference, here's the legend for my chart: Blue lines = Long term support & resistance Pink lines = Short term support & resistance Green patch = Bull market Red patch = Bear market Grey patch = Consolidation phase Purple dotted line = BTC halvings Black line = DNM Support What you're seeing is a long term chart of BTC, I changed the view to log instead of auto, with this change we can clearly see that there is a massive yet gradual uptrend. We're bouncing off trend line supports and resistances on the weekly, the entire chart is going on an uptrend. If you look at the RSI, its telling us the same exact story. I don't see anything going to 0 here. It can only go up, there's literally no indicator saying that we're heading down, this is why I'm extremely confident, if anyone tells you otherwise, ask them for proof, which they probably don't have, because they're most likely "when moon lambo kids" who don't understand a thing about markets. I'm not saying I'm 100% right, but if you disagree with me, then by all means feel free to challenge my idea, I'm always open to a civilised conversation, write what you guys think in the comments. MARKET CYCLES The entire history of BTC looks astounding, and it only gets better from here. If you just look at the chart, you can see patterns that are very repetitive and predicatable, in a very good way. What you're seeing is just the beginning of BTC. Just like any market, BTC goes through cycles, we're currently on the 4th cycle, and its going to do the same thing as before. You see, every cycle goes through 3 stages, the grey stage, green stage, and red stage. If you look at very start of the chart, BTC starts off as grey, which is known as the consolidation stage, its going through a build up moment. After the grey stage, the price gradually goes up, and transitions to the green stage, thus starting a bull run. Once it reaches an all time high, it will create a resistance. The price will then pull back, cooling down from ATH and then begin its next phase, the bear market, also known as the red stage. The red stage is the end of every cycle. So it goes grey, green, and red, and it repeats itself in that sequence, just like traffic lights, think of the market cycles as traffic lights. Its done the same thing 3 times in the past 10 years, we're currently in the 4th cycle as mentioned previously. As of today, we're still in the grey stage, and according to my calculations, the grey stage will end at around October, Q4. Once October ends, we will see new highs, the market sentiment will change and we'll see a bull market emerging, this is the proof I'm talking about. You have to ask yourself, name me one bear market that wasn't followed by a bull market? FUNDAMENTAL POINTS To spice up my analysis, I'm going to talk about the fundamental side of things. You see, the purple dotted lines in the chart shows the date of the BTC halvings, every time there's a halving, a bull run triggers, fundamentally. Mining rewards get halved every 4 years, that means supply becomes low and scarce, causing the demand to increase, when demand increases, price increases. The coin is hard coded in the system to make itself explode every 4 years. There's one more fundamental point I want to make, its about the black line. Now, say what you want about bitcoin but what I'm about to tell you is a hard cold fact, there's no denying this. BTC's history is infamous. Cyber criminals used BTC to buy and sell drugs, as well as other illegal goods and services back in the early days of silk road, and is still being used to this very day except operated with a different marketplace. With that said, 5% of the total market cap of BTC is used for the dark net markets. BTC's dominance is currently $93,639,254,464, and 5% of that is $4,681,962,723, if you divide that by the circulating supply, you get 5% of the current price. For reference, Here's my formula: (BTC Dominance * 0.05) / (Circulating Supply) = Price of BTC in the Dark Net Economy This is where the black line support comes from, and its price is sitting on a support line of $264, when people say BTC is going to 0, they have absolutely no clue, its hilarious, they're just speaking from emotion with no solid evidence. Its literally impossible for it go to 0 when there's an underground economy happening right under our noses. If bitcoin magically dies, criminals will still use it with or without you, thus creating that black line for themselves. The Dark Net has been around for a very long time, good luck trying to take it down, because the FBI can't do it either. So there you have it, my TA and FA in one post. I place my bets on October, thats the timeframe I see when we transition into a bull market, I can't really put a price tag on it now but I know the next bull market is going to be insane, like literally mentally insane. The facts and figures are all there, its up to you to guess what you want the price to be, and it doesn't really matter because we're all going to be rich either way. Thank you for your time ladies and gentlemen, I wish you all a fantastic day! Twitter: @cyber_stocks Discord: CyberStocks#9378 Join my favourite community on discord: discord.gg Feel free to support me, any help is appreciated. All funds will directly support my personal finances, and most importantly, my mission of building an online brand :) BTC Donations: 1AuZiofHSqM5gV1ttxUddNovDhEtHgMUgA
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CyberStocks
2
90% Chance of Bull Run in 2019 - 3rd Bullish Indicator!Hello everyone! This is my first ever TV post! There will certainly be more to come in the future! Firstly, I want to thank you all for stopping by. I've finally decided to come out of my shell, and I feel like I have something important to say. To help involve myself in the trading community I would like to point out a few things that no one has really considered. At the end of the post please feel free to comment, spark discussions and share some of your thoughts on the matter, or even play devils advocate for the fun of it. Just a quick disclaimer, my posts are simply forecasts of what I think may or may not happen, its my personal thoughts and opinion on the market. My skills and knowledge are not financial advice, which means I'm not responsible for your losses and I won't be held accountable for anything you do. So let's talk about this chart, I've combined every western exchange into 1 chart. This includes bitfinex, coinbase, bitstamp, poloniex, binance, and bittrex. That means the price, volume, liquidity, and so on of every exchange has been averaged into 1 chart. This will make the chart more accurate in terms of data and price direction. I like to keep things simple, I don't like drawing too many lines or use fancy indicators, especially for this post because its on the weekly, you can't draw much on the weekly charts anyway. Now of course, if you follow any TA updates on your newsfeed, you've probably heard this many times, "we're at a crucial point in the market. Are we bullish?" or something among those lines. For the first time in a long time, we're actually retesting the giant red down trend, that's been holding us down for so long since 2018. Now let's talk about the most common pattern everyone's talking about, the weekly ascending triangle. This triangle is already in full effect, we can already see the candle pump above resistance, which also pumped above the red downtrend, that's a double win so far. All we have to do now is wait for the week to end. I believe we are bullish. However, the catch is that we're bullsih ONLY IF the candle of this week closes above the red downtrend, and it must be a green candle too, this will be an important indicator to really show where the direction of this market is going. It's Tuesday, 2nd of April in my time, we have 5-6 days for the weekly to close. To reinforce this point further, we can look at the RSI. This is my favourite part because it was a eureka moment when I saw this. The market cycle is changing, there's no denying that, on the weekly at least. The red downtrend shows the bearish market structure of 2018, from 20k to 3.2k. It's only recently that we started to see a change. The green line shows a change in the market structure, the volume on the RSI has crossed above the red line and begun moving upward, ignoring the old pattern. We're starting to see lower highes and not higher lows. Jan 28 was the turning point of the market cycle changing. UPDATE: A massive pump just happened again today on the 2nd of April, it pumped $500 within a 5 hours. It seems like this was the ascending triangle playing out, and not to mention there's also a daily reverse heads and shoulders inside it, definitely 2 huge bullish signs. My theory still stands, let's not get our hopes up just yet. We still need to wait for the weekly candle to close, that's probably the best final confirmation to look for. Again, our overall direction seems bullish, there's no doubt about that, before this pump, the market cap was increasing by 1 billion per day, it was a build up that lead to this moment it seems. The weekly RSI is the reason for this post, the most recent bullish indicator that caught my attention. Now obviously the 2 main things that triggered this event were the other 2 bullish indicators, which happen to be the daily reverse heads and shoulders, and the weekly ascending triangle but that's a story for another time. Thank you all for taking the time to read this. I really hope this gave you some insight, or challenged your ideas. Again, please feel free to comment, spark discussions and share some of your thoughts on the matter, or even play devils advocate. Don't forget to connect with me on social media: Twitter: @cyber_stocks Discord: NerdMoney#9378
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CyberStocks
It's all in the numbers!Just an idea, but if you use the long form Fibonacci sequence of numbers as extensions of bitcoin's very first bull run in 2011, you get some interesting results. This provides key levels of support and resistance, which were projected way back in 2011. It almost seems as if we are climbing the long form sequence, with important targets having been reached at these levels. Take a look at 610 for instance, this was our recent ATH in 2017, just as the 8 and 34 levels were the peaks in 2013. There are also various structural levels of support and resistance using this sequence as extension numbers. Each market cycle plays out over a longer time frame. There were 911 days (2.5 years) between the 2011 and 2013 highs, 1477 days (4 years) between the 2013 high and the 2017 ATH, and I suspect this cycle will take about 5 years between the 2017 ATH and the next ATH in 2022. I believe that we still have 2 levels of support below us, and we will find a bottom sometime in the second half of 2019 around the 55 fib ext level, which is $1750, and is sitting right at our weekly SMA350 support, which I believe will be the bottom level of support for 2019. There was a 58474% rise from the November 2011 low to the November 2013 high, and a 11960% rise from the January 2015 lows to December 2017 ATH. The second cycle had 20% of the first cycle's % gains, so if we maintained that ratio leading into the next bull run, then 20% of 1160% is 2446% gains. A 2446% rise from the 55 fib ext level / weekly SMA350, gives us a target of $50900 for the next bull run, which I suspect we will reach sometime at the end of 2022. This level also coincides with the 1597 ext, which is a Fibonacci number and should be the next bull run's ATH. The halving event dates have been added to demonstrate the increasingly parabolic rise that usually takes place after halving dates, and how this becomes more gradual with each cycle. Next halving is in May 2020, so expecting the next bull run to escalate once we break $7430 (233 fib ext) sometime in 2021. Good luck and happy trading!
BNC:BLX
by Corn_Reaper
Historical Average Bear Market Studies.. Applied To Bitcoin.Quite a few things going on within this chart, but what I'm trying to convey is actually very simple. The chart is based off a few key models which have been used with tremendous accuracy for over a century. Model 1) Bear markets will usually last about 18 months in duration. Model 2) Bear markets will usually last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull. Model 3) Average Model 1 and Model 2. Blue Vertical Line: 18 Month Marker .. Based on the historical average duration of bear markets. Red Vertical Line: Bull Run Divided By 3 .. Based on the notion that a bear market will typically last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull market. Historically this is very accurate. Yellow Vertical Line: Average of Both Bear Market Studies .. Averaging both studies gives us a mean and a "prime" timing window to hunt investment grade opportunities. Purple Vertical Rectangle: The Window To Focus In On ... If you're long term bullish on this asset. Key points here: 1) We've already retraced well beyond 78.6% of the entire range from bottom to top (from $109 to $19,800) - What I would consider Investment Grade location. 2) If history tends to repeat itself or rhyme... we're in the sweet spot in terms of TIMING a purchase, being right in between both of our historically accurate bear market studies. 3) Comparing this pice action to the 2015 bear market, we're actually in about the exact same location as we were in 2015 when the market bottomed. Right in between 78.6 retracement and 88.6% retracement . Anecdotal evidence we may be bottoming now. 4) "Buy When It Snows, Sell When It Goes" - Old adage in the stock market which has merit. Should you base your investment decisions based entirely off a saying on wall street? Absolutely not. But here we are coming out of the winter and in to crypto's favorite time of the year. Seasonality wise, we consistently see the market lift in the spring and in to the summer. 5) Internally - **NOT shown on this chart for the sake of keeping it clean and readable. *Volume breakout shown on OBV. *Looong double momentum divergence confirmed, shown in the MACD. *Embedded momentum oscilator trying to break out of oversold. I use a modified W%R, but something more common like RSI or stochastics would give you the same reading. *Overall the Weekly internals look massively bullish. Just keep in mind this is a WEEKLY chart. Each candle takes a week to print. So this DOES NOT MEAN that you can expect upward movement from this point forward. In many cases after the Weekly charts start showing buy signals, it can easily take a month before any significant price movement occurs. So be weary of the timeframe I'm referring to. 6) Final confirmation for me is a weekly close above $4040.99. At this point I'm not "betting the farm," but I will be exchanging a considerable amount of USD holdings back in to Bitcoin.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by bitflip01
Why I am accumulating Ostrich feathers at these cheap prices"Ostrich feathers took off in a big way in the 1880s. ‘A well-dressed woman nowadays is as fluffy as a downy bird fresh from the nest’; ‘If you would be fashionable this winter, you will be beplumed.’ Soaring international demand encouraged South African farmers to rear more birds and by 1913 the ostrich population of Little Karoo (the region at the heart of feather mania) grew from practically nil to 776,000. South African farmers and feather merchants became extremely wealthy on the back of the trade and started building ostentatious feather mansions which boasted ‘panelled walls, tiled bathrooms, hand-painted friezes; the finest mahogany, walnut, and oak furniture... gilt concave mirrors, silver and Sheffield plate, the best Irish linen.’ At the market’s height in 1913, farmers were expanding, and brokers and investors were stockpiling large quantities of feathers in anticipation of even higher prices. Many in the trade were utterly convinced that the profits would keep rolling in, for feathers, like diamonds, were an ‘investment for life’, and in 1911 the world’s only ostrich professor confidently stated that ostrich farming would be a permanent feature of South African farming. Three years later, however, the feather market began a precipitous and permanent decline. By late 1914, changing fashions, growing concerns over animal cruelty and conservation and the advent of the motor car, which rendered elaborate headgear impractical, all spelt the end for feather mania. The crash resulted in great hardship for South Africa’s feather farmers and merchants. Scores of farmers committed suicide (weak hands) rather than face life without their farms. Merchants’ feather mansions were auctioned off for the price of their windows and doors – one merchant even forced his wife to sell her oven door to pay off his debts. Ostrich carcasses littered the South African landscape because farmers could not afford the birds’ feed." Copied from the internet. People say accumulating Ostrich feather is stupid and their fundamental value is not as high as I would think, but they do not understand the new world, it is not the way it used to be anymore. Ford astonished the world in 1914 by offering a $5 per day wage ($130 today), which more than doubled the rate of most of his workers. The world is changing and new demands are arising. With mass production this opens so many possibilities. So many innovations are being made. The bubble popped a hundred years ago, so a new bull market is imminent. The longer this bear market lasts, the closer we get to the bull market. 1 Feather = 1 Feather come at me. On the really long term Ostrich feathers are in a bullish trend. What do you mean inflation? They might be slightly below their 1913 price, but I am still up 5000% compared to 1250. People are calling me stupid for accumulating Ostrich Feathers they laugh and throw stones at me but they simply do not understand the powerful new world economy. Besides, back in 1905 when the price of Feather dropped they called hoarding it incredibly stupid, but those that did saw massive returns in 1913 so where is your argument now? I am just waiting for Feather to pop above the price trendline and then we are really going to get going. Return to the mean BTW: Of course the countless examples that just die disappear and are not on trading view. Commodities do not just disappear, so I can use that as example. Good luck finding a feather chart. Cryptoers are going to look very smart in 2115.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
2
Market cycles appliedHello, If I learned something in 2018 it is about market cycles. 2017 was the year I learn to draw trendlines and follow performing assets early on, and 2018 the year I learned about market cycles (and start doing the opposite of what I did in 2017 - enter opposite to trends). Maybe by 2020 I will have learned how to do both. So to be clear, this is not an idea to go long, I have no idea, if there is an opportunity I am not experienced enough to know. What I know is that if every thing go as planned (we follow the market cycle pattern & 6000 / 7500 areas get reached and not overcut) then there are short opportunities. I hope you like market cycles because I absolutely love them and it is the only way I will trade in 2019 (I will post an idea about my debrief of 2018 in a few days). Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci Here is a trade I took on gold recently (entered a bit early, maybe a mistake): Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci And btw I think you always got this divergence when parabolic moves are ending: But oscillators are so useless, like I can't tell visually the parabolic move is slowing down by just looking at the chart LOL. Come on seriously, indicators are dumb. Unless you want to set some kind of alert, like "if RSI rises by 30 points then shows divergence" or something, as a way to be alerted of things like this. Otherwise I really do not see the point. It's just dumb to use them in your analysis. Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci Fibonacci I think use both the quadrant thing to get an idea, it's a general area, + 0.618/1.618 that are important numbers, and then the usual number 0.382 0.786 that are self fulfilling can be used I suppose. So ye, not going long or shorting BTC until we know more and it goes AT LEAST to 5500$ (or the other way around). * A correction: Back in 2017 I joined trends that were well established, like half to 2/3 in. Works wonders. I forgot to write this. The experts (that look at 5 minutes charts to predict a year) think $6000 will be tested, alot of people kinda expect it. 7000+ is perfect, just high enough to destroy bears and make them change their minds, and bait the bulls to fill my ord - er I mean think the bear market is over ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MrRenev
3
Bitcoin's Three Market Cycles: Time & Price ObservationsWhy did I make this?? I'm sick of seeing "hope charts" that are basically the current chart with an arrow pointing up at the end with NO EXPLANATION. Also sick of Twitter and YouTube shillers making money of people's hope. It's PATHETIC. Lastly, I'm sick of whenever BTC rises or falls seeing said Twitter and You Tube shillers immediately linking the rise and fall with something that was said in the news that day. Here's some news for you: A MARKET CYCLE DOESN'T GIVE A FUNK WHAT IS IN THE NEWS. I hope this chart presents the facts clearly. If you see any mistakes or anything interesting you wish to discuss, fire away. Thanks for viewing.
BNC:BLXLong
by fifty2kph
8
The Future of BitcoinThere has been a lot of negative talk about Bitcoin lately, not unlike any of its previous bear cycles, so I thought I'd post this to spur some excitement over the potential future of this great technology. I strongly believe that Bitcoin has a very long term future for the following reasons: 1. Bitcoin is software and software is incredibly adaptable. Its only limitation is the minds of the developers and hardware advancements to keep the network alive. 2. With a 21 million coin limit, scarcity will allow Bitcoin to maintain value as long as it has any utility whatsoever. 3. Bitcoin will continue to have utility as long as it: a) Cannot be touched by governments b) Can be used for global cross-border payments or transfers c) Easily storable and transportable As far as I am concerned, being able to make cheap and rapid payments, while an inevitable capability in Bitcoins future, is only a bonus, not a necessity.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SPresent21
Silver's Two Market Cycles: Time & Price ObservationsWhy did I make this chart? 1. I'm beyond tired of seeing "hope charts" that are basically the current chart with an arrow pointing up at the end with NO EXPLANATION. 2. Also tired of Twitter and YouTube shillers making money from people's hopes. It's PATHETIC. 3. Lastly, I'm tired of people searching for something in the news to explain the price rise or decline. Here's some news for you: A MARKET CYCLE DOESN'T GIVE A FUNK WHAT IS IN THE NEWS. I hope this chart presents the facts clearly. If you see any mistakes or anything interesting you wish to discuss, fire away. Thanks for viewing.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by fifty2kph
6
Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - 2018 June - Synereo (AMP-BTC)Since April 2016, Synereo (AMP-BTC) has had 2 complete market cycles and has started a third one since August 2017. Each cycle lasts on average of 8 months, with the 3rd cycle on its longest accumulation period yet (more than 10 months in). The highest advancing % so far is 582% on the 2017 cycle, while the lowest declining % is at -80.68%. The latest accumulation period (late 2017) may have already had another small complete cycle (August 2017 to December 2017) indicating a possible advancing phase in the next few days.
by boss-baby
1
Bitcoin - One Step Forward, Two Steps BackAs we anticipate the bull market returning, we are quickly put back in our place by the bears. Further declines are more daunting than ever at this stage, there is a lot of uncertainty in cryptocurrency right now. I'd like to present a simplistic piece of analysis on bitcoin, I'm sure the novice technical analyst will be able to benefit from this post. Today I'm on the weekly chart using a logarithmic scale which displays prices based on percentage increase or decrease. I've based my analysis off several of my previous ideas, I've done a ton of research on bitcoin from a technical aspect and measured every individual cycle from minor, intermediate and major timeframes. This can be found in my previous idea " Bitcoin - Cyclical Measurements " and " Bitcoin - What's Next? " I do appreciate constructive comments, share your own analysis whether that be technical or fundamental. Let's dive into today's analysis. Straight off the bat we can see throughout the first major cycle the overall increase was roughly 52,000% (Not mentioned on the chart, this is highlighted in other analysis mentioned above) and the decrease was 87% which lasted 413 days. This was broken up by two main intermediate cycles measuring a decline of 81% and 82%. In the current market cycle, the increase measured at 10,000% or 13,000% (depending on which low you are measuring from in 2015) and the decrease still stands at an overall 70% from $20,000 to $5,900. Price is currently trading above this level at $6,460 which is my primary concern, the daily support trendline has been lost and further downside is likely. Taking a look at the daily chart below the expected overall decline is 80% based upon the weekly support trendline and key daily zone. At this point in time, a recovery is more than possible. I will be focusing on the 1h, 4h and daily timeframes to predict where price is likely to move next. If price breaks the low at $5,900 we will see further downside. On the 12h chart below I have highlighted the structure I will be focusing on to capitalise on the drop, this is just below $5k. Safe trading everyone!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LewisGlasgow
12
Bitcoin Price Channel Idea - Where is the Bottom? Looking at the previous (2014) and recent (2017) bubble movements of Bitcoin, we can see three apparent price channels that dominate the cycles: 1) Base 2) Breakthrough 3) Pop Here the chart is logarithmic to linearize the growth rate (price channel), assuming the cycles are predominantly exponential. In the previous cycle we can see the Base price channel was broken and first Breakthrough price resistance was around 200. Later on, the Breakthrough channel ends as the price reaches to 1000 as second Breakthrough channel resistance, and we enter the downwards Pop channel. Pop channel ends when the price reaches to the first Breakthrough price resistance of 200, and we enter the next bubble's Base price channel. In the recent bubble, again Base price channel was broken and this time first Breakthrough price resistance was around 3500. Second Breakthrough resistance is around 5000. Lastly the Breakthrough channel ends as Bitcoin reaches 20000, and we are now in the Pop price channel. With these I will speculate and predict the real bottom range for Bitcoin as 3500-5000 and we will hit there around January 2019 - that will be the beginning of the next Base price channel. Furthermore, we can see that the recent Base price channel was broken (beginning of the Breakthrough channel) when the price reached to the previous all-time-high value of 200. By the same token, Bitcoin will enter Breakthrough channel when it reaches 20000 USD in July-August 2020. Aside from market cycles, the fundamentals are much different today than of the year 2014. Rate of adoption and visibility is increasing. Therefore I believe the idea I presented here is the worst case scenario. Thanks for reading - let me know what you think.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bidsitlov
1
Reddcoin/Bitcoin (Market Cycles) As you can see from the chart it's interesting to watch whales playing games on this coin. Always retracing over 90% each time from the top to the bottoms. Because this coin has not done anything apart from acting like a pump and dump, i'm assuming its going to dump all the way to: - Entry: 23- 13 satoshi - Exit: I would go for anything above 300%-500% my entry :D For now, I am very bearish and wish not to touch it until at least 30 sats. In addition I do not know when exactly this will stop bleeding so let it do its thing.
Long
by NarkoTA
XLMUSD (Lumen) Stellar DWN2 $.0.38000 then 0.60ish XLMUSD (Lumen) Stellar 05/01/18 9 p.m. EST by MMansfield. Hi trader friends! Stellar Lumen (XLM) appears to be at or near a Wave 3 high. This should be followed by a pullback to 0.3200 area (previous Wave 4 territory) then another wave higher that could take it into the 0.60s. REASONS: The longer-term cycle (blue) is strong up until mid-July so there is still likely much power there. Two of the three Elliott Wave impulse waves tend to be similar in length. Wave 1 was tiny compared to this completing Wave 3. So, with the LT cycles up for 10-11 more weeks, it is reasonable to vote for the remaining 5th wave to look more like Wave 3 than the tiny Wave 1. Thus, another double is possible! The topping Wave 3 (now or soon) idea is supported by the wave structure, the dropping momentum with bearish divergence on some oscillators, and less volume on last push up = short-term weakness. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield CIO
BITTREX:XLMUSD
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
6
Zcash/USD (Zcash) Coming Into A Tradeable Low!Zcash/USD (Zcash) setting up for short-term cycle low with the medium-term cycle up. 2018-0510, 6:50 p.m. EST. By Michael Mansfield With current structure, the proportions would fit best to see one more low to complete big Wave B, or Wave 2 of 5 low, at between $254.00 to $249.00 area. It is possible the low is in, but I think not yet. However, if $266-$265 is the low, within a few hours, it makes it a Flat Correction, in Elliott Wave terms. One more low to the $254-$249 area, and its a Flag Formation. Both formations are likely bullish! So either way, a tradeable low rally for two weeks or longer, should be in within 24-48 hours, possibly sooner. NEGATED: The potential bullish breakout scenario would be negated if Zcash broke below the lowest Andrews lower fork's resistance line, currently at 207. PRICE VOLUME ANALYSIS: Bulk visual price/volume distribution resistance area (dashed blue line) is the major resistance area. That price level is currently at $289.00. The blue line is slightly lower at $286.00, so as not to cover up the peak of the graph (located at the right margin of the chart). A break above that "blue dashed bulk volume line," or the "pink Andrews Pitchfork" upper resistance line (currently sloping down), will likely confirm a new uptrend or at least a significant upthrust in the case of a Wave C corrective wave structure. TRADER TIPS: The minimum volume attractor area is shown by the ""dashed red line" and the low price volume distribution graph (also at the right margin of chart). This low volume area can be a magnet for price to quickly magnetize to, then reverse. Sometimes markets go back later to fill those areas to form a duel bell curve distributions. Conversely, the bulk price volume distribution area (think thick part of a bell curve in statistics) are often longer-term support and resistance areas where price has traded at and around that area for a significant amount of time in the past. This is especially when this data parameter is set based on the number of price ticks, price changes, rather than just the amount of volume at a given price). Watch these areas for price changes. CYCLES: The long-term cycle (not viewable at this price scale) is heading down, while the medium-term cycle in green is up. Since long-term cycle moving down will tend to dominate, I would expect a price peak prior to the green up cycle's peak date of July 15th. As with other cycle comments, these are young markets without a lot of price history, so there maybe longer cycles at play, either up or down, that we cannot yet account for. TRADER TIPS: When a larger cycle is down, while a middle-term cycle is up, prices will tend to peak earlier than the short-term cycle's peak date would indicate. The reverse could be true if the long-term cycle was up and the shorter-term cycle was down. In that case, you might expect an earlier bottom. Finally, when both cycles are up, the actual medium-term top will likely come further to the right, time wise. This skew is called "Right Translation." Earlier peaks are called "Left Translation." Cycle lows in stocks tend to be easier to pick out than cycle tops. But over the years I found that in many commodities, cycles tops are far more regular and easier to pick than cycle bottoms. For instance, Gold has a very regular 8-year cycle top. The next 8-year cycle top is due in late 2019-early 2020. That does not mean it will be a higher high. Gold may form a lower high, than the September 2011 high. So a bounce in gold lasting 12-24 months may be underway. Should gold, for example, clear $1550, then hold on for a likely higher high at $2200-5500, in 2019-2020, 8-yrs to 8.6 years from the September 2011 top. Some contracts topped in 2012, if I remember correctly. Digital assets seem to trade more like commodities in this regard. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield, CIO
BITFINEX:ZECUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
1