The Coronavirus keeps spreading, weakening Aussie despite the upbeat jobs numbers as markets take a less risky approach to the heightening threat. Technicals indicate that Aussie and Euro move hand to hand, with the former falling following a ‘holding’ ECB! Now both are corrective and at a trendline low! Pound, on the other hand, does relatively well as rate cut...
Markets remained somewhat muted at the start of the impeachment trial despite Trump’s talk at Davos as concerns around the deadly coronavirus mounted. It’s going to affect Asian economies for sure due to weakening consumer spending unless if it will be contained asap, and perhaps the emerging markets too. In Europe, German and UK macros were seen increasing risk...
US Retails Sales, corporate earnings and now Chinese consumer data add on to the equities rally! Despite US equities having reached overbought levels, phase one seems to be working well on global #indices. All eyes will turn to Davos this week, central banks' decisions and also the widely anticipate Trump’s impeachment trial. Let’s see how equities will pan...
The US and China signed a partial deal yesterday, putting a temporary stop to global uncertainty! Without that being the end of the trade war, at least we can now wait and see if China respects the signed terms over the next few months... Are emerging markets affected by the fresh rhetoric since China is supported, or should we just focus on monetary policy,...
Despite the US-China phase one trade deal supporting equities the upside could be minimized if priced in already since as indices have been moving up since the December truce! Geopolitics suggest more strength, however, technicals indicate otherwise! Will corporate earnings trigger a shift from a macro perspective? Well, either that or weaker US inflation...
With US-Iran de-escalation traders shift their focus on Brexit talks and safe-haven outflows! The new EC President threw doubt into a free-trade agreement in her visit in the UK to initiate talks. And this could have a reversal effect on the uncertainty we saw removed over the past few weeks. Watch me analyze GBPNZD and CADJPY for further technical insights...
Iran retaliated against US with ballistic missiles instead of disrupting oil shipments, facing one enemy at a time as China is a big importer. Gold and crude soared to fresh highs after Iran attacked a US military base in Iraq. Oil gains, however, were discounted early, perhaps due to EIA’s later report, but gold remains bid near $1600/oz. Watch our analyses...
The FX majors stretched into 2020 firm, spelling a strong term against a weaker #dollar! Will this continue being the case though when uncertainty around #tradewar and #Brexit remain elevated? Take a peek at our #elliottwave analysis for some technical insight at least. Timestamps EURUSD 1H 01:45 USDJPY 1H 03:30 GBPUSD 1H 05:50 Trade safe Stavros...
Equities and the US Index hit the levels we expected last week, however, participants remain encouraged on “phase one” and Brexit conclusions. Will the rally keep on in 2020 or have investors really misplaced the recent concessions? The risk of deteriorating relations remains elevated in our opinion! Timestamp DXY 4H 00:20 SPX 4H 02:45 NASDAQ 4H...
China announced they will be lowering tariffs on a number of items come January 1st, making markets looking more festive ahead of Christmas! Aussie and Kiwi took the headlines with a positive tone, however, Cable kept entering lower territories on the back on post-election no-deal fears! Will the Santa rally continue? Have a look at our Elliott Wave analysis...
In this market insights, I talk about the reason #FX Majors were muted; on the back of a shift to riskier assets i.e. the equities I dive into euro, pound, dollar and the safe-haven yen to provide you with my short-term analysis. I also talk about what to focus on for the rest of the week and with crunch talks around the allocation of US’s $1.3tn spending...
In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest comments surrounding the US-Sino rhetoric and why they have triggered a full or partial recovery in risk assets! Watch me analyse risk vs safety using Elliott Waves, as well as the incredible surge in the British pound! It seems that BoJo’s chances to win the elections are cracking fresh multi-month price...
In today’s market insights I talk about the massive Trump sell-off seen in the markets following his comments that a phase 1 trade deal could be now dragged later than the 2020 election. Gold and Oil were affected by the pessimistic rhetoric as participants received the delay announcement! The yellow metal appreciated while Crude oil jaw-dropped days ahead of...
In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest tactical move to intimidate China into a partial deal! With China having retaliated for the HK bills and manufacturing data confirming that the trade spat is now weighing on on the US economy, risk appetite returns with the Tariff Man! Will tariffs against Brazil and Argentina push China in the corner, or...
In today’s market insights I explain why equities are not affected by reports that China wants existing tariffs removed in order to proceed with phase one of a deal! Perhaps, investors couldn't care less about the consistent back and forth between US and China before they go home for Christmas... I reveal how I expect the S&P500 to perform in December, and while...
In today’s market insights I talk about YouGov’s MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) poll and how predicting UK’s vote share with 93% accuracy in the past supports the British Pound! Aside from politics potentially moving the UK markets today, we have important GDP data coming out from Canada too. And this is likely to affect loonie. The...
In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest move to support HK protesters by signing two bills, denting optimism around the recent trade war optimism! The shift in sentiment was expected but how risk vs havens performed may seem confusing to some when looking at CADJPY and AUDCHF. Here I explain how the yen and franc are likely to perform against...
In today’s market insights I talk about how the latest trade war and API developments affected the prices of gold and oil. Gold appreciated while trade optimism increased! That was owed to poor US data, however! But I do expect the upside to be limited! Crude, although supported by positive trade ware narratives, ended the session muted as bullish flows were...