BTC Manipulation Zone, Don't Be Fooled!Hey guys, BTC 4h chart, a little more zoomed in so you guys can see what we can look to expect over the next couple of days. This is just an IDEA I am playing with based off MM's and Price Manipulation.
We are currently in a range, and MM will be looking to get people to open shorts and longs within this range before doing a STOP HUNT/LIQUIDITY GRAB and then finding our true direction.
We can see areas of interest for the liquidity grab, they are of course going to be the order blocks, which ones? We don't know, but we we will be able to see as its happening. They might decide to choose the 4hr or 1hr order blocks to return to, but we will only know by them taking out all the desired liquidity and not allowing the price to push past the OB of their choosing.
This will be interesting to see how it will play out.
Marketmaker
FALLING KNIVESHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss with you the topic of trading against the trend.
This occupation is extremely risky, while everyone wants to catch a reversal, because they can bring big profits.
Why is it so dangerous to trade against the trend?
We all know that the trend is our friend.
And you should always remember that this friend is very strong.
No one knows when the price will start to reverse, which means that if you decide to trade against the trend, you will most likely get stopped out.
Therefore, trading against the trend was dubbed "CATCHING FALLING KNIVES" .
Traders look at the history of price movement and it seems to them that it is easy to predict a reversal - there is a top, there is a pattern, but everything is not so simple.
If you are more careful, you can find moments when the price formed peaks or patterns similar to a reversal, but there was no reversal.
If you entered at such a moment against the trend, you would lose everything.
Be careful!
Most traders lose their money precisely because of such situations when a position is opened against the trend.
This is the most dangerous occupation in Forex.
You can see a lot of patterns and the price still won't reverse.
Therefore, you need to analyze the whole picture as a whole, you should not rely only on patterns or indicators.
Range trading
When it is not clear who is stronger than the bulls or bears, that is, the market moves in a range, it is worth trading by setting small goals.
And, of course, you need to trade from the levels.
In range trading is carried out from level to level, there will be your goal.
Range trading is harder than trend trading, but easier than counter trend trading.
How to trade?
The ideal situation for trading against the trend would be when, after a strong move, with large candles, a double top begins to form.
A double top is a sign of a weak trend.
In this case, the first vertex should not be far from the second.
If the first peak is far away, then the price has reached the level.
Trading from a strong level is a good idea. Here you will often see trend reversals.
It is worth noting that the closer the two peaks are to each other, the stronger the sell signal.
At the same time, it is worth remembering that this movement may just be a temporary correction.
Do not overstay the position in anticipation of a big move.
The ideal combination for entering against the trend would be the level and the formed pattern.
You need to enter when the market has already reversed, that is, the second top is clearly visible on the chart.
Exit
Even if you entered perfectly, and the price goes where you need it for some time, you should not relax.
Be aware that this may just be a correction of a previous big trend.
At the slightest sign of a continuation of the previous trend, get out.
It is better to take a little profit than to lose everything.
If the price moves confidently enough, set a take profit according to your strategy.
You can set a take profit 3 times the stop loss.
Or, if you know how to hold positions correctly, you can put a stop loss at the next closest level.
One good sign
A candle with a long shadow is a very good sign.
As a rule, after such a candle, the price goes in a different direction relative to the shadow.
A long shadow means that the price passed the level, but failed to consolidate and went in the opposite direction.
This is a sign of weakness in the trend and a good signal to trade in the opposite direction.
conclusions
Trading against the trend is the most dangerous, the most difficult thing.
If you decide to trade against the trend, wait for the signals, do not rush.
Watch the price very carefully, even if it goes in the direction you want.
Over time, you will learn how to enter trades better and then trading against the trend will bring you more profit than losses.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
BITCOIN more sideways or trap upmove and short?++++++++++++++++++++++++ no financial advice ++++++++++++++++++++++++
I reproduce my thought processes in detail in the video.
Summary: I think we have to be careful with opening long positions. Possible Short stop hunt zones are mentionend in the video!
Don't forget to like, follow and comment :)
Have fun
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TOTAL CRYTOCAP: Wyckoff schematic #1 & #2Among most indexes across the globe I have spotted a variation of both wyckoff distribution schemes on the total cryptocap. As I said in my previous analysis; the markets have run hot and in no way market makers, early investors and whales would consider a scenario of WAGMI.
Market makers in crypto have learned a tough lesson during 2018 when bear markets could run hot - even for them. Another 3 years of bots, algorithms and machine learning have made them the perfect liquidity (or better said: liquidation) hunters amongst any market in the globe. This is not only because of their "brilliance and analytics" but more so; because they have one of the few retail dominated markets. Every dip should either be bought or diamond handed and every pump even more so. In fact, it is the mentality of the counterpart that made market makers record profits during 2020 and 2021. The expectations nothing less than a record breaking year for more profit.
The machine learning machines that act as intelligent liquidity miners at the fraction of the cost of a Bitcoin mining farm printed new results; the slow bleed. The slow bleed has ever showed to be the best returning strategy to contain the crypto enthousiast. Downtrends come with a few phases:
Phase 1: flash corrections retracting "the floor" that upholds the price of a coin
Phase 2: a quick absorption of liquidity through a cascade of liquidations and stops
Phase 3: a fast vectorized return to a higher floor downplaying the actual floor by a huge wick
Phase 5: the local uptrend creating new hope; "the bottom is in"
Phase 6: the vectorized liquidity chop absorbing the liquidity up and down in the new zone
Phase 7: the short squeeze; "WAGMI"
Rinse and repeat.
The downfall of the bull market itself are in fact the bulls themselves with overleveraged longs or calls, overplaying their hand without a hedge towards the opposite direction, the direction of the market maker.
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
MARKET MAKER MANIPULATIONHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss with you a very interesting topic - the traps of market makers.
Let's get started.
Traps…
How often did you encounter this - you opened a position, and why did the price go sharply against you, knocking out your stop loss, and as soon as your position was closed with a loss, the price turned around again and went where you expected?
You analyzed your trades and did not understand what you did wrong.
Actually, it's not your fault. You just fell into the trap of a market maker.
These traps are created by large players in order to collect the stops of small market participants, thereby creating liquidity for opening or closing their large positions.
What do traps look like?
As a rule, traps are false level breakouts.
It is in these places that small players place their stop orders and this will be the main goal of a large player.
The first trap pattern is the classic Double Top pattern.
Everyone knows from books that the second peak should be slightly lower than the first. So the market tells us that the price no longer has the strength to make new highs and it's time to fall.
In fact, above the first peak, most traders place their stop losses, and large players push the price to them in order to activate orders and gain liquidity, after which the market reverses.
The second trap situation is the trend.
The trend is our friend! Everyone remembers and knows this.
In addition, everyone remembers that the trend changes when the price, in a bear market, renews the previous high.
After the new high, we believe that the trend has changed, but the price suddenly falls even lower and the downtrend resumes again, what happened?
The big player knows that traders put their stop losses above the last high and that is why the price pushes higher, so liquidity gathers, after which the bear market continues.
How to trade?
We cannot find out the thoughts and desires of major players.
The average trader should analyze the chart and try to act in the direction the market maker is pushing the price.
Pay attention to false breakouts - these are strong signals.
Seeing that the price has updated the maximum, and then turned around sharply, go short, so you will trade in the same direction with a major player.
Also, remember that traps are usually characterized by candles with long tails.
A long shadow will be a false breakout.
Conclusions
Trading traps is very difficult and at the beginning of the path you will fail.
Study the market, try to understand how a big player thinks.
When you learn, this strategy will bring you big profits.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
the Hunt most of traders know about classic technical analysis, all of them are familiar with patterns like triangle...
but have you ever thought about whales and marketmakers?
dont you think that they know as well as traders know?
are they just sitting and watching traders earning money easily?
i dont think so...
its because why im going to short this increasing breakout triangle...
BEST CROSS CURRENCY PAIR EUR/GBPNow the dollar is going through a turbulent time, and EURGBP will help us avoid problems related to the dollar, because the pair does not contain the main world currency.
In addition, after Brexit, new interesting opportunities have opened up, which I will discuss below.
Dollar
Most traders choose to trade pairs in which there is a dollar due to the large liquidity.
Liquidity is a trap for a trader, especially intraday traders, but beginners do not understand this.
This liquidity is created by large players whose goal is to collect your stops and manipulate the market.
Such a market is very difficult to predict and very often your positions will be closed by the stop.
The only way out of this unfavorable situation is to trade cross-pairs.
Cross-currency pairs
There are 8 recognized major currencies of developed countries with stable economies.
The fact that these currency pairs can interact with each other without the mediation of the dollar makes them so attractive and resistant to external news and stuffing from the United States.
Cross-pairs, unlike dollar currency instruments, have the following advantages:
A more unambiguous reaction to economic indicators;
Limited (half-day) volatile trading period;
The opportunity to calmly move positions through the night, as pairs react poorly to news from the United States;
EURGBP Cross-pair
The EURGBP cross-pair ranks first among the crosses in terms of transaction volumes. The EU and the UK are connected to each other geographically and politically, until 2020 it was a single union. In 2016, British citizens voted for the option of Britain exit, giving the world a new word "Brexit".
After Brexit, the pair began to grow, giving a good opportunity for earnings. In addition, the EURGBP pair always reacts to problems in the global economy in the same way - with the growth of the euro, for the simple reason that the economy of the Union is larger than the economy of the island UK.
The economic crises of the XXI century have raised the exchange rate of the pair to the same levels, which allows you to build countertrend strategies, as well as to fix profits in the interim.
Best trading time
The most active time of EURGBP trading is from 7 to 16 in London.
A unique feature of EURGBP is a decrease in trading activity during the American session, which is explained by the absence of USD in the instrument.
The day trader can afford not to sit waiting for the release of the Fed minutes and not to increase the stop loss before the publication of the NFP.
How exactly to trade and what strategies to apply?
The pair is characterized by a lower percentage of knocked-out stops, since the price does not make unexpected jumps, unlike the dollar.
Thanks to this, you can trade using classic trend strategies.
As a rule, the movement is most often unidirectional. That is, having opened positions in the right direction, you can safely keep it until the evening or put a take profit.
The tactics of late entry, at about 10 o'clock in London, will help to weed out false breakouts.
Daily trends after Brexit
After Brexit, the pair gives very clear and understandable trends. You can even use a simple moving average to open good deals.
The graph is literally "like in textbooks". It is unknown how long such a picture will last.
Conclusion
Cross-pairs are special currencies that can give a trader a number of advantages over other instruments. This situation arises because crosses are not interesting to large players, market makers work out technical trading on them without mega-fluctuations in liquidity and "hunting for stops".
In general, EURGBP is a calm pair, suitable for beginners and still providing opportunities for trend trading on D1.
example of market maker repeated behavior A market maker is an individual participant or member firm of an exchange that buys and sells securities for its own account. Market makers provide the market with liquidity and depth while profiting from the difference in the bid-ask spread.
Like Clockwork - Tight another $2.30 the other way so farSo the hourly has just done a bunch of the stuff we were observing it may do.
It went for more Green Vector candles below and when it took off from 77.8, it has gone and recovered the Red Vector candles above.
So far it recovered the Red with Green so we entered swift shorts.
All together, the long we allowed to run from 100122 NY session close Ran for $2.30 and we have enjoyed $0.50 and $0.70 on short scalps from 09:00-13:00 and in the current hourly candle. We are holding shorts until we get stopped out on minimum profit and looking to enter next longs when we see Blue or if it shows it is not going down for the other Greens that it failed to reach yesterday.
Let's see what happens at the highs!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
Bullish trend phases1) Use higher timeframes to determine the trend. Look for the entry point on smaller timeframes.
3) "Zone shift" is a price movement designed to accumulate and preserve volumes.
In this phase, it is worth looking for entry points.
4) "Stop hunting" usually consists of three movements that occur in a short time.
The minimum of the day serves as a signal point about where the reversal will occur.
2) The second zone shift serves as a profit-taking point.
5) The penetration of each accumulation zone is a potential entry point.
6) "Market maker spread" - the maximum and minimum of the initial channel. Usually this value is 25-50 points.
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Additionally:
The time of termination of consolidation depends on the volume of HOD/LOD captured during the hunt.
It's hard to determine. We don't know how long it will take a major player to take a position, and we don't know how much volume he needs.
A) From time to time, the movement will be without consolidation, since the accumulated volume is too large, so a V-shaped bottom may form.
B) The accumulation of volume always takes different time, so sometimes it will take more time to accumulate than usual.
C) Accumulation may take longer, which is why a wide zone is formed, after which movement to the second stop (accumulation zone) will begin
DeGRAM | ETHUSD breakout resistance Ether follows bitcoin, bitcoin breaks the local trend and begins to recover, I think that if ether goes to retest the resistance level, then we can see a breakdown and rise in the cost of ether to 4150
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DeGRAM | GOLD long after consolidation Gold after the breakdown of the upper border of the flat and testing of the long-range resistance is octaved to the savings border.
But there is no downward impulse, most likely the price was kept, at the moment gold is trading in a long zone.
If gold manages to gain a foothold above the 1800 level, then we can expect an increase to resistance
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DeGRAM | NZDUSD long from support The New Zealander returned to support after updating local tops, and a cumulative flat is likely to form. I think that if the price does not break through the support, then there is a great chance of a pullback to the resistance 0.678
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DeGRAM | USDCHF short to 0.9158The franc is trading flat after the breakdown of the upward local trend.
A medium-term range of 0.935 - 0.908 has been formed.
After testing the resistance of the range, the price reversed and changed the local trend to a downtrend, I expect that the price is likely from the level of 0.922, may fall to support 0.9158
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DeGRAM | EURUSD pullback from support to 1.1264The currency pair continues to trade within the trading range between the levels of 1.1225 and above 1.1320. The price has passed 50% of its daily energy since the opening, I think that the price will most likely not be able to continue falling. Waiting for a pullback from support at 1.1225 to resistance at 1.1264
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DeGRAM | EURUSD forecast for the week. Pullback from support The Eurodollar falls from the level of the descending channel, the instrument could not break up. Friday closes at the very low of the trading day, so I believe that the movement may continue, but there is strong support ahead, from which the price can bounce back. Waiting for a rollback from the 1.1174 support
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DeGRAM | GOLD forms pinbar in shortGold is working out my last idea for a week, and from the support level, gold is recovering to the resistance of the downtrend channel. Friday is forming a pinbar short right at the resistance level. this is a direct signal for a reversal. Waiting for the price to drop to support
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DeGRAM | LTCUSD breakout support LTCUSD in down trend. We have strong support, which is tested 6 times in an attempt to break down, but the price is being held back. Pay attention to the price tightening, each subsequent retest, the price does not roll back above the other. I'm waiting for the breakdown of support 142.25
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DeGRAM | GOLD short from resistance Gold breaks the resistance up, but the level of the first technical rollback is ahead, I think that from this level the price can roll back to the flat border.
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DeGRAM | EURJPY longAfter the breakdown of the downtrend, the Euro / Yen makes a false breakdown of the resistance at 129.5 and rolls back, which suggests a possible transition of the price to the phase of accumulation.
I think that from support 128.6 the price will rise to resistance
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DeGRAM | EURUSD long to resistance flatThe euro / dollar breaks through the resistance and is set to go up. The key level at the moment is the resistance of the flat. I think that after consolidating in the long zone, the currency pair may recover slightly.
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METHODS FOR SETTING STOP LOSS. PART 1.The market is volatile and very unpredictable, it is impossible to constantly correctly guess the future direction of the market, and in order not to lose everything in one transaction, a stop loss was invented.
Stop loss, like the trend, is our friend.
Without a stop-loss strategy, there can be no profitable trading strategy.
The ability to correctly find the stop loss zones will help each trader to avoid unnecessary losses and not to exit the position ahead of time.
Let's look at these strategies.
Methods for setting Stop Loss
PERCENTAGE METHOD
The interest method is a method in which the stop will be equal to a percentage of the capital, depending on your risk management.
At the same time, a large number of professionals recommend not to risk 1-2% of the capital in one transaction.
And this method is very popular because of its simplicity and ease of calculations. For example, if your capital is $ 10,000, and the risk management in each transaction is 1%, then the stop loss will be $ 100, everything is very simple.
CHART STOP
This method is based on placing a stop loss behind the support and resistance levels.
After several bounces from the levels, you can set a stop loss above the resistance or below the support, because if the price breaks through these levels, then potentially the deal can go strongly against you.
Such levels will be our protection, because it will be very difficult for the price to break through strong levels, but even if there is a breakout, we will be protected by a stop loss.
TIME STOP
Another method of setting a stop loss is a method based on time parameters.
This method will be of interest to those who do not want to leave their deals overnight or want deals to close at the end of the week and not remain open on weekends.
Everyone knows about the uncertainty that arises on weekends. At this time, it is impossible to close a position, and the news can be dangerous and you can suffer big losses at the opening of a new trading week, in order to avoid all this, this method was invented.
VOLATILITY STOP
Each currency pair has its own volatility value. Some couples walk fast and a lot, some walk less.
If a trader knows the average daily range of a particular pair, then he can set his stop loss slightly above this value so that the position is not closed prematurely due to market noise.
For example, if we imagine that GBP/USD has an average daily movement range of 100 points, then setting a stop loss by 20 points is likely to lead to premature closing of the position. But, if a trader puts a stop above the daily range, you can thereby protect yourself from accidental price spikes.
This method forces you to place large stop-losses, thereby giving you space to work so that the price is not closed prematurely.
Conclusion
Setting a stop loss is a vital condition for any trading strategy. Without a stop loss, you will inevitably lose capital. In the next part, we will look at other methods of setting a stop loss.
Good luck to everyone!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻