Aspects to Market Maker Modeling from a Retail Perspective 3Market makers' provision of liquidity is a complex system that involves managing an aggregate of securities
and derivatives that are readily available to be cashed on spot.
Market makers use different market approaches to manage their inventory, such as bid-ask spread, order flow, and algorithmic trading strategies.
These approaches allow market makers to make a profit by providing liquidity to the market, while also mitigating risk
and ensuring that they have enough inventory to meet the demand of market participants.
Market making is a highly competitive business, market makers need to be able to generate a profit in order to remain in the market.
They also need to be able to anticipate and respond to changes in market conditions, economic conditions,
and regulations in order to remain profitable in the long term.
Market makers can create inventory artificially by using a variety of strategies.
One common strategy is to use algorithmic trading systems
to generate large numbers of buy and sell orders in the market.
These orders can create the appearance of increased demand for a particular security,
which can push prices higher.
Another strategy is to use derivatives such as options or futures contracts to create synthetic positions in a security.
This allows market makers to take a position in a security without actually owning the underlying asset,
creating the appearance of increased demand and driving prices higher.
It's worth noting that creating inventory artificially is not illegal, but it is heavily regulated by the financial authorities,
and market makers are subject to strict rules and regulations to ensure that these practices do not harm the market or its participants.
In summary, market makers can create inventory artificially by using algorithmic
trading systems to generate large numbers of buy and sell orders in the market,
or by using derivatives such as options or futures contracts to create synthetic positions in a security,
this allows market makers to take a position in a security without actually owning the underlying asset,
creating the appearance of increased demand and driving prices higher, but it is heavily regulated by the financial authorities,
and market makers are subject to strict rules and regulations
to ensure that these practices do not harm the market or its participants.
Marketmaker
USDCAD appears bullishThe USDCAD market has exhibited bullish order flow starting from January 30th at a price level of 1.32998, reaching a peak of 1.34709 on January 31st. However, a pullback was observed subsequent to the upward move, as price retraced to the H4 and M15 demand zones. The potential for a rally to the upside exists if these double demand zones hold. It should be noted that as the end of January approaches, there is also a possibility of price moving away from these zones in pursuit of raiding liquidity below in the form of an irregular W pattern.
From a market maker perspective, the 13EMA has demonstrated a clear divergence from both the 50EMA and the 200EMA, suggesting the potential for the recent pullback to reach a point of exhaustion. To mitigate risk and maximize potential returns, it is recommended to carefully observe the market for indications of price rejection of these demand zones, or for market makers to "crab" liquidity below these levels, prior to entering a long position.
Considering the present wide spread during this trading session, it may be prudent to wait for further price consolidation until the London session open before making a decision. In this scenario, a short-term target of 1.3350 (with 200EMA acting as possible resistance), and a medium-term target of 1.34000 have been identified as potential long trade targets.
GOLD: Bullish outlookThe XAUUSD currency pair, representing the exchange rate between gold and the US dollar, is currently facing rejection at the 1900 and 1896 support zone. This follows a significant drop of over 200 pips attributed to robust selling activity from the 200EMA, which is functioning as dynamic resistance. The current scenario suggests an oversold condition of the pair.
My analysis predicts that the pair will reach the levels of 1908 and 1913 in the near term, with 1908 serving as the short-term target and 1913 as the medium-term target. In the event of a deeper correction, I have set 1918 as the extended medium-term target.
GBPUSD: BEARISH OUTLOOKThe psychological support and resistance levels for GBPUSD for the current week have been established at 1.24044 - 1.23774. The technical analysis of the 4-hour and daily time frames indicate a bearish trend, with the daily time frame currently situated within a contraction zone. Based on the 4-hour trend and weekly PSR, it is expected that the bearish sentiment for GBPUSD will persist. This bearish trend may be further strengthened if the daily time frame exits the contraction zone with bearish momentum.
From a market maker's perspective, two key scenarios to monitor are:
1) price rejection at the 50 exponential moving average (EMA) with TDI divergence and
2) price rejection at the 200 exponential moving average (EMA) with a shark fin pattern on TDI.
My short-term target for this market scenario is 1.23130, while the medium-term target is 1.2285.
PCC & QQQ: PUT TO CALL RATIO / MARKET BOTTOM NEARING???DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included an overlapping analysis of PCC which is a PUT TO CALL RATIO INDICATOR & QQQ a LEADING INDEX in the OVERALL MARKET.
POINTS:
1. A PUT TO CALL RATIO LEVEL OF 2:1 HAS ALWAYS BEEN INDICATIVE THAT A MARKET BOTTOM IS NEARING OR IN.
2. MACD is has officially shown a complete flip in buying to selling pressure by touching +0.1 and falling closer to -0.05.
3. RSI is showing a distinct decline seen in past market bottoms.
IMO: With an overabundance of overall bearish market sentiment and spikes being seen in PUT TO CALL RATIO INDICATORS FOR EQUITIES & INDICES it should be safe to bet that market bottoms occur when the majority of retail investors are buying PUTS as MARKET MAKERS would not allow their CONTRACTS to EXPIRE IN THE MONEY.
SCENARIO: Continuous spikes to 2 POINTS for PCC and above is most certainly a sign that a MARKET BOTTOM is in the making already.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
USI:PCC
NASDAQ:QQQ
BTCUSDT - Who is next to liquidate? Guess or Chess? Hallo to all. Here, we present something we wanted to share publicly, since we started the development of the Liquidations Levels indicator, 1.5 year ago.
We think it is useful, because It has to do with the accuracy of the result and the indicator.
We compare what you might think it happened (when using the indicator) with the reality, what really really happened in the charts.
To be honest: The accuracy of the results was always a question inside our mind. If we couldn't validate the calculations in reality, then the indicator is useless or it might lead to misunderstanding or, worse, misinterpretation.
Some things first:
The indicator is trying to calculate the other traders large over-leveraged positions at the time they opened, plot them in the chart exactly when they opened and to track the pair Price Action (recaction) for these.
The Market Maker, is always, hunting these positions and is trying to create Max Pain for these type of positions, by hitting them, usually in bunches/groups of them, with wicks or aggressive moves.
Liq Levels calculations: In order to do the correct calculations, we were forced to make (like on every algorithm) some mini-assumptions about the calculations.
It's like the Fast Fourier Transform sampling (FTT) coming from the Signal Processing Theory, we have learned in Communications on University, many years ago.
The sampling , the interval , the period are extremely important parameters. Especially here, for each parameter, even a change of 0.01 percent will lead to different results. So we must be accurate.
So... The 1 million dollars question: Does the indicator shows real liquidations? Is the MM actually liquidate trades positions in the indicators levels we have calculate?
Can we trust the indicator in the Trading View?
The answer is YES. It is a 100% validation.
After a long time, we have finally managed to plot all the real time liquidations that happened in Binance Futures pairs, directly in the chart. These data are collected by the official feed from the Binance API.
So, every green "X" you see in the following chart, is a single liquidation of a Long Position and every red "X" is the liquidation of a Short Position. On the same chart there are also plotted the Liquidation levels indicator with their lines. I think the chart speaks for it self.
Where the liquidation levels plot a line, and when the price went there finally, there exactly, the liquidations happened.
The validation of Liquidation Levels with the real liquidations:
If someone asks me, about what will be the next move, I will answer to him/her with something else:
Noone knows (except the MM), but with the use of the liquidation levels indicator, you can help yourself, and transform your trading style, from a Guess game, to a Chess game. Use your mind, evaluate the situation, and think like the MM.
What you will do next?
This will be another story to analyze.
Best regards to all,
the Mobility in Life Applications TEAM
(developers of the Liquidations Levels indicator)
ES1! RALLIES & FALLS (UPDATE)DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided an updated version of my previous chart for ES1! .
POINTS:
1. Price Action has broken previous pennant and fallen into a consolidation phase.
2. Breaking through this consolidation phase would either require breaking 3900 to the upside or 3800 to the downside.
Current Fall Percentage = -9.47%
Current Fall in Points = -1585
Average Fall Percentage = -14.63%
NOTE: *Highlighted Channel 3800 - 3900 is current price action range where DIX HAS SHOWN TO SPIKE THE MOST.
CME_MINI:ES1!
Is YOUR Broker Regulated? Find out hereHere is a list of eight of the main financial regulatory agencies that are backed with strict regulatory enforcement in other countries…
You’ll need to make sure the broker you choose is approved by one of the below.
South Africa (FSCA) - The Financial Sector Conduct Authority
USA (SEC) – Securities And Exchange Commission
Eurozone (MiFID) – Markets In Financial Instruments Directive
UK (FCA) – Financial Conduct Authority
Australia (ASIC) – Australian Securities and Investments Commission
India (SEBI) – Securities and Exchange Board of India
Japan (JSDA) – Japan Securities Dealers Association
Switzerland (FINMA) – Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority
Am I missing any? Let me know in the comments :)
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Financial trader since 2003
How to Choose the Right Broker -10 pointsHere’s a list you may follow to help with your decision.
My top 10 list to choose the best broker
1. Only choose reputable brokers that are regulated and recognised by the main financial regulatory bodies. (See answer to question two for the list of financial regulated authorities).
2. Find a broker who offer a list of trading instruments that you prefer i.e. shares, CFDs, Spread trading or futures.
3. Make sure their cost fees are low and their withdrawing and depositing structure takes place within three working days.
4. Make sure they are insured and deal with the top banks in the world and don’t run their own finance firm where they can take your money and run.
5. Go onto Google or ‘Hello Peter’ and read as many reviews from REAL people to see their experiences.
6. Browse through their website and read through everything before you decide whether they are for you or not.
7. Avoid any broker who promises any too-good-to-be true returns or are very marketing orientated – most times these are scams…
8. Analyse their portfolio growth they’ve achieved for their clients over the last five years. This will help you see their consistency or even the validity of what they have to offer.
9. Choose a broker who meets your trading needs i.e. trading platform, available markets, trading indicators, economic calendars and even copy-trading plug-ins.
10. Make sure the broker you choose is able to help in terms of customer service needs, trading education, live videos and even trading events for their clients.
If you found this useful, let me know in the comments.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Financial Trader since 2003
Market stagnation before the retraceDue to low liquidity during the weekends we are going to see most likeley not much action on the Market.
We have 2 Major Liquidity Zones that should be recovered on Sunday evening latest Monday.
Expect a retrace to 16445USD
Short orders are favourable.
Another possibility is before retracing to the 16445USD zone a touch of the 800EMA before we retrace.
Wait and observe the behaviour, on Sunday latest monday we will know more about the market intentions.
Stay calm and wait for the liquidity to come into the market.
Enjoy the weekend.
US100 Weekly breakdownA more in depth video is coming based on this breakdown, the week was comfortably bearish on Nasdaq. From Tuesday we have been getting a lot of proper displacements creating FVGs that gave us clear opportunities to go short, but Wednesday's trading session was most lucrative and the move was quite easy to catch.
Market Structure Identification ✅Hello traders!
✅ MARKET STRUCUTURE .
Today we will talk about market structure in the financial markets, market structure is basically the understading where the institutional traders/investors are positioned are they short or long on certain financial asset, it is very important to be positioned your trading opportunities with the trend as the saying says trend is your friend follow the trend when you are taking trades that are alligned with the strucutre you have a better probability of them closing in profit.
✅ Types of Market Structure
Bearish Market Structure - institutions are positioned LONG, look only to enter long/buy trades, we are spotingt the bullish market strucutre if price is making higher highs (hh) and higher lows (hl)
Bullish Market Structure - institutions are positioned SHORT, look only to enter short/sell trades, we are spoting the bearish market strucutre when price is making lower highs (lh) and lower lows (ll)
Range Market Structure - the volumes on short/long trades are equall instiutions dont have a clear direction we are spoting this strucutre if we see price making equal highs and equal lows and is accumulating .
I hope I was clear enough so you can understand this very important trading concept, remember its not in the number its in the quality of the trades and to have a better quality try to allign every trading idea with the actual strucutre
GBPUSD H1 potential short positionHi
As chart
If price breaks out of the below supply zone (red block below)
Uptrend has momentum to continue rising
But it has possibilities to meet selling pressure since there is a resistance zone that hasn't been successfully broken since 9/22 decline.
When price hits the upper supply zone and there is a "clear bearish singal" could be bearish engulfing, evening star... so on
I'll consider placing short position for short term
After all, it has gone up for a while
RR 1:2 but depending on the situation
DXY drops and there is a new UK minister, unsure what policy he will do on currency.
UK also took office as a new prime minister, and he doesn't know what policy he will have on the currency.
All are personal opinions, not investment advice,
all suggestions and feedback are welcome!
Market Maker Pattern with Multiple Long / Short TradesIf this Market Maker pattern plays out in symmetry to the left side, which is more visible even on the 5m chart, then there will be several long opportunities and several short opportunities with opportunity to either reverse positions right into the next drop or retrace. There is also a large red candle on the left side, seen on linked chart of 30m timeframe, that was only partially recovered and these red candles typically always get recovered by a corresponding green candle to the right side of the chart. Thatt gives additional strength to the idea that price will return to previous high of the structure to reclain the red candle. And each of these drop and recoveries is a significant percentage move, ranging from 9% to 30% and with 20x leverage that could make for a fairly safe and profitable series of plays.
Of course, these patterns don't always play out completely symmetrical, but even if it fulfills a few of the moves or does so in smaller proportion to the moves on the left side, it's still a solid opportunity due to likelihood of move to upside to reclaim red candle and then likelihood of fulfillment of at least approximate fulfillment of the markdown / drop phase of the pattern.
BTCUSD H1 Potential short positionpersonally tend to place short position at the higher supply zone (is given on chart)
The finance market's volatility also impacts cryptocurrencies e.g., DXY
So place orders only if apparent signal appears
when price hit supply zone and appears bearish signal then try short position (could be bearish engulfing, evening star...so on)
All data are given on chart
Just personal sharing, not investment advice.
Any suggestions and feedback are welcome!
LUNC about to rocket as MM in controlThere is a huge amount of BUY LIMIT stop losses on top. I expect reaccumulation of long position and rocketon 80%
EURJPY H4 potential short positionAfter retracement, price goes upside and is close to previous H(9/22)
but the upward momentum has slowed down
and it is close to HTF supply zone( is given on chart) which is also 8 years high
If the price goes up to supply zone
and bearish signal appears, consider entering the short position
SL: 145.8
TP1: 143.03
TP2: 142.60
TP3: upper edge of the demand zone which is141.1
(short is still against the current trend, please evaluate carefully)
all are personal opinions, not investment advice.
any suggestions and feedback are welcome!