Market Outlook for 7th March to 11th March.Geo-Political events which are effecting the sentiment of the market and we are selling relentless selling in the index specially by the FIIs, who have increased the pace of selling. On Friday alone FII sold close to USD 1b in our market which is quiet a substantial number. DII is however buying every dip and for the reason Market is still above 16K levels. Further support on the down side is near Friday’s low of 16133, 15910 and 15527. In very less likely circumstances things in conflict between two nations turns ugly and more countries get involved Nifty Index can go further down to 15045 which is the final support zone. On the upper side in case of good news from the market from multiple fronts, the resistances will be near 16454, 16712, 16837, 17027 and finally 17233. Keep an eye on election results in few important states. The result has potential to give much required booster dose to the market.
Marketoutlook
NIFTY 50Index Outlook given in the chart itself
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DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered investment advisor.
This content is for educational purposes only.
Invest capital at your own risk only after doing your own due diligence
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XAUUSD: BREAKING FALLING WEDGE. IS GOLD GONNA RISE AGAIN?XAUUSD is breaking the upper trendline of the falling wedge pattern. We foresee Gold will continue its upside movement as long as Gold is moving above its exponential moving average.
The Roadmap will be invalid after exceeding the support/target area.
AUDJPY OUTLOOK_POTENTIAL FORMING SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLEAUDJPY already rejected the upper trendline. We forecast AUDJPY will move downward to the target area and potentially forming symmetrical traingle in the near future. The momentum indicator is pointing down in the neutral area, indicating that AUDJPY has a chance/momentum to reach the target area 80.730.
*The forecast will be invalid after the price exceeds the resistance level 81.454*
Where is Crypto Going❓ Let's Take a Look👀After a weekend typified by extreme amounts of FUD, looks like the lights have started to shine through the clouds and have illuminated that crypto does indeed still exist. But for how long? Are we going back to 10k? Will everyone lose their life savings - AGAIN. Let's look.
But first, let's discuss the whole dump thing to get some context. It seems at this point it was at least somewhat a market manipulation event, with a lot of the initial cascade of BTC sold all at once to start it being collected over the weeks prior in small amounts. Would not surprise me if this was meant to coincide with the china ban (yeah again, and it still works! crazy!) in order to really get the gears going.
Anyway a bunch of retailers panicked, not helped by the lot of folks online shouting it's the start of the bear season we're all gonna be poor from every mountain top.
Honestly - if you were one of these people going around to your chat rooms spreading FUD you have nobody to blame for the market crash but yourself as you were a part of the problem.
Now, surprise, everyone is pro crypto and FOMO'ing back into the market. Really can't make this shit up.
Enough about this madness let's look at some weekly candles to ease our mind.
BITCOIN
BTC is holding on to a fairly firm EMA 50 weekly support, but of course we want to be above our 21 so if we can't rectify that situation ASAP we're looking at a short term bull trap or accumulation for quite a bit.
I believe my earlier prediction on this ultimately being quite bullish for alts still stands despite the retrace being sharper than expected - still within the boundaries. find that below:
RSI is in a great place for more growth, though TD9 is showing we could see more consolidation at this level or downside before the big reversal.
BITCOIN DOMINANCE
I use this chart as my road map for bullruns, as it works really really well. I suspect we're not done the bullrun as BTC.D still has a lot of cycle left to complete it seems.
We saw a Dead Cat Bounce I suspect back up to the channel we previously broke down out of, retracements are expected ultimately and the stopping point is crucial - here we can see that the retracement stopped right where we should see it stop for continued movement down. Remember, BTC.D dropping gives us alt season, we want this bastard to drop.
I suspect the floor around the 30-40% range, which gives us a good amount of market cap still to flood into the alts especially if money comes back into the market en masse.
When this completes it's movement downward I suspect we will be done with the bullrun for real.
TOTAL MARKET CAPITALIZATION
We stopped in our liquidity area from January, which is quite interesting from a technical perspective. Retracements are expected to stop in the liquidity area if you're expecting it to continue the movement afterwards, it seems that because the climb was so big, the retracement was likewise quite dramatic, but given the current stopping level I believe there's a good chance of continued a big bounce up from here.
TOTAL 2 - MARKET CAP EXCL. BTC (ALT CAP)
This is where things get interesting to me. While the market capitalization itself retrace to january levels, we see clearly by this and BTC.D that the alts has the same general movement of retracement, but to a much higher level than we saw in January. This further adds to my speculation that the bull run is not over, especially for the alt coins.
OVERALL THOUGHTS
If you bought this dip I think you're probably going to make a killing, at least in the short to mid term. If stock to flow is to be believe we could see BTC hit 100k or 200k+ if you're using STFX. After this point we could see up to an 80% retracement in the overall market, bringing us back down to the 20k level for a brief spell before normalizing.
The takeaway if we have more money to make here before we have to really worry, and those who hodl'd through the blood and bought the dip should see their testicular fortitude payoff soon. That said, make sure we're taking profit on this wave - Once we're done this leg it could be a while before we get another chance, though this leg could conceivably last in to early next year.
Possible pattern in the overall marketThis is purely hypothetical. It appears a pattern has formed in terms of periods of heavy growth and periods of stalling growth. I was able to chart all 3 majors indices in aggregate thanks to @boji1 's post:
What do you all think? Do you think the market will be choppy all year or do you think this apparent pattern will continue and we have another leg higher?
Based on the last two cycles, the average return was 11.9% from the start of the growth period to the next rest period. Could see a 12% bounce back in the next 2 months.
Eur/Usd Repeating Same pattern as 2017, Continuation to Upside!Aas broken down from the video, the same pattern has repeated from 2017 were we had a nice push to upside, accumulation then continuation as price broke the previous higher high. so the same pattern is happen currently so we could expect a small pull back based on volume profile which acts as a strong POC for support before looking for long setup!!!
Follow me for more setup!!
Bitcoin (BTC) analysis 09 SeptemberBitcoin is on its way up since it last touched $9,400 on August 30. The critical level at $10,000 was broken thanks to the huge green candle formed on Monday, September 2. The coin continued its good performance on September 3 when it peaked around the important mid-$10k zone.
Eventually, buyers went out of steam and started loosing their ground, even though the BTC/USD pair peaked at $10,950 on September 6.
I expect another visit to the $10,000 level and most probably $9,700. Depending on the overall crypto market condition in the coming days, we might see another attempt towards $10,400 and $11,000. Pessimistic scenario: $10k is too weak to hold and we see a leg down to $9,100
Weekly market update and developing (swing trade) long setup
Week 29 - Market Update
Hello everyone, welcome to this weeks market update. As usual, let’s start with the weekly chart.
WEEKLY
Not much has changed on the weekly chart. Our outlook is still that we will break the support around 6000 and then rapidly fall to 5000, eventually going even lower. However at the moment we seem to be working on a correction of the last big move down, respecting the downward channel. Let’s move to the daily chart to get a better idea of where this bounce might be heading.
DAILY
The daily chart looks interesting, first let’s see what Ichimoku tells us. Price and the tenkan-sen have crossed the kijun-sen, and the chikou span has moved into price. This tells us that we are consolidating the last downwards move, possibly heading towards a correction of it and moving up.
However, we’re in a strong bear trend on the weekly chart, and it is very possible for price to breakdown and drop fast and violently, quickly breaking prior support levels as if they were not even there… So we will need conformation of price movement before we step into any trade.
We also see the blue and red support and resistance zones which are trapping the price at the moment (as wel as the kumo). These create a no trade zone, and a break of one of them would either activate or invalidate our prior trade setup, as seen on the chart. There are no trades for us until price decides what it wants to do!
Let’s have a look at our trade setup on the 2HR chart and see if it gives us any more information
2 HR
Ichimoku gives us a bullish picture. However, because we’re still in the (daily) no trade zone the kumo breakout was not tradable. The price made a lower high, so we’re waiting for it to make a higher high to confirm a (short term) bullish move upwards. We expect the green scenario to unfold, after the price breaks the resistance zone we should move upwards to our first target fairly quickly, ideally after a pullback to the breakout level. However, be very conscious of the bearish scenario. The red arrow is very possible! If we see signs of the move upwards failing, the bulls will not have the strength to break the resistance and we will start looking for bearish entries.
For now the green scenario is still at play and our short term long setup is still valid.
breakout level: 6900
Invalidation: 6000
First target: 7775
Maximum target: 8360
So sit back, relax, and let price tell us what do to..
And remember, always remain calm.
ZenTrading
Litecoin (LTC) Market OutlookHello traders litecoin is seeing a little bit of a selloff and we are approaching an important level. I will be looking to see if the price is able to bounce off of the 100SMA (the orange line) at the $255 level. if the price bounces and we get a reversal signal that price will be good for long term trades. However if the price falls below that 100day moving average i expect to see the price fall back down to previous support around the $230 price range. Just my insight hope this finds you well good luck traders and remember be PATIENT!!
Peace