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S&P rally continues; will we see new high?After confirmation of control in the first days of May, bulls enjoyed their dominance. The market opened with a gap up on Monday, rallied throughout the entire week, and closed very strongly within the top value area. There was some profit-taking on Monday, but sellers were not able to push the price even below the previous day's high. At this stage, there are no major warning signs for the buyers. On the other hand, there are many signs that confirm their strength: 1. Price is in a daily uptrend, aligned with higher level context (weekly/monthly uptrend). 2. Two unfilled gaps (Friday the 3rd and Monday the 6th). 3. Strong close of the week within the top value area (price has retraced >80% of April’s bearish wave). The only technical weakness on the chart is the monthly consolidation. Bears might try to defend April’s high ( 524 ), but unless they receive support from economic reports coming this week, their position looks very vulnerable. An important level for the bulls is 515 , where the price pivoted on Wednesday after a pre-market sell-off. Important economic data will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could cause volatility in both directions. But as long as there are no major negative surprises, pullbacks are buying opportunities Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 13-May-24 to 17-May-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 13-May-24 to 17-May-24 Nifty closed at 22055(22440) and touched low & high of 21935 & 22585 Nifty was up from the support level and was trading inside the range (22000-22800) provided last month. However broke the support and touched down 21935. RSI and stochastics levels was up from last week(41.45 % & 13% Respectively). Both are near to oversold zone. All Companies so far posted results are average other than Bank & Finance stocks which posted Good results, IT posted muted growth, Maruti posted good results, Reliance, Ultratech posted good growth. Other manufacturing, capital goods companies results are awaited in coming weeks. Nifty bank 47421(48896) - Nifty bank was up marginally inline with nifty last week. Many bank & Finance stocks are buyable zone. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for Axis Bank , Indusind bank ,ICICI Bank definitely can be added as portfolio stock. Kotak Bank ( after the fall due to RBI regulation can be added slowly whenever there is a dip), Bank of Maharasthra ( Buy on Dips) ,Canara bank( Buy on Dips) can be accumulated slowly as well. Apart from that Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, ICICI Securities, Following Finance Stocks can be added as it posted good results are Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Fin Serv, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin. Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Apollo tyres, Biocon, Coforge & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. Please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) Nifty 224055- Short & medium term (Neutral) Nifty have resistance at 22350 ( MA 50). As mentioned in the past month, nifty almost reached the near term target 22819 two weeks before (Fibonacci extended resistance target) and started falling ( 22819 Target- which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000 which cant be crossed decisively. Short term support 22230 (MA 50)/22000/21800 Medium term Support - 21721 (Mar Low),21500 (Fib & Trend Line Support),21180, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Long Term Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue. Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence whenever there is a dip in the market, continue to buy on small quanties till post election survey results are revealed on Jun1- Jun 3rd and Jun 4th Election results. Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Nifty IT broke the Major support at 32935. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly considering 2-3 years. It need to break above 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. Especially Indian IT stocks is in a non decisive path and downtrend.ifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 13-May-24 to 17-May-24 every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) Nifty 22419- Short & medium term (Neutral) As insisted in the last month, Market need to decisively close above 22800 to move up further. As expected last week for come back rally market went up.As mentioned in the past month, nifty almost reached the near term target 22819 two weeks before (Fibonacci extended resistance target) and started falling ( 22819 Target- which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000 and again trying to cross it. Short term support 22230 (MA 50)/22000/21800 Medium term Support - 21721 (Mar Low),21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Long Term Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue. Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence whenever there is a dip in the market, continue to buy on small quanties till post election survey results are revealed on Jun1- Jun 3rd and Jun 4th Election results. Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Nifty IT broke the Major support at 34918 /34000 two weeks before and went upto 32919. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly. It need to break above 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. Especially Indian IT stocks is in a non decisive path and downtrend. Nifty closed at 22055(22440) and touched low & high of 21935 & 22585 Nifty was up from the support level and was trading inside the range (22000-22800) provided last month. However broke the support and touched down 21935.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
S&P Bulls prove their controlThe strong close last week indicates a shift in control to the buyers. They managed to close above the previous week’s high, establishing a weekly higher low and confirming the daily uptrend. Currently, the bulls have control across all key timeframes: the price is trending upward on the hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The only challenge they face is on the monthly timeframe, where bears have initiated consolidation; however, this is not a critical issue. It's plausible that the bulls might either retrace the entire bearish wave or, more likely, close May as an inside bar, setting a price equilibrium that could persist throughout the summer. Given this scenario, the current position might not be ideal for a long entry since we are in the middle of April’s range. If you're considering buying, it would be wiser to wait for a pullback that could provide a more favorable opportunity. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Even after the dramatic fall on Friday Nifty looking strong.Even after the fall due to Profit booking and fear in investors due to Fed rate pause Nifty is not looking weak. Seemingly it has taken 200 Hours EMA support in late trading hours of Friday at 22388 after falling below it just for a while. If 22388 is not broken in the coming week the targets/resistances on the upper side will be at 22535 (Major resistance) (best way to avoid it will be to open gap up above it.), 22691, 22799, 22873, 22973 and 23039. Channel top seems to be around 23155. If the support at 22388 is broken and we get a closing below it, the supports will be at 22348, 22186 and finally channel bottom support near 21962 (in very unlikely event). The shadow of the candles is positive right now but there will be profit booking effort at every rise. Bears will try to fight the bulls who were taken by surprise by the bear attack on Friday.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
1
S&P bulls attempt to regain control but they are not there yetLast week, using oversold bounce, buyers attempted to regain control over the price. Their effort was somewhat successful, as they managed to establish both a higher low and a higher high on the daily chart. However, they failed to set a weekly low, which was a challenging task given the magnitude of the previous week's range. This indicates that bears still maintain control over the weekly (and monthly) timeframes, suggesting that we should expect to see more selling pressure in the short term. The immediate objective for bulls is to test the price above last week's high ( 509.9 ) and to close the month within March's range. They must also protect the last higher low ( 497.5 ) or the last weekly low ( 495.5 ), or else their progress will be undone. The short term outlook is mildly bearish. Watch out for volatility on Wednesday as important economic data is released and FED announces decision over interest rate Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24 Nifty closed at 22419 (22147) and touched low & high of 22199 & 22623 Nifty was up from the support level and was trading inside the range (22000-22800) provided last week. RSI and stochastics levels was up from last week(53.75 %(41%) & 64% (<20%) Respectively). Moved up from oversold zone. All Companies other than IT and Bank are expected to post result in the coming weeks. Hence market may try to take a cue from the bottom line performance (Profits). Banks & Finance companies posted Good results, IT posted muted growth, Maruti posted good results, Reliance and Ultratech posted muted growth. Other Major companies results are awaited in coming weeks. Nifty bank 48201 (47556) - Nifty bank was up marginally inline with nifty last week. Many bank stocks are buyable zone. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for Axis Bank , Indusind bank ,ICICI Bank definitely can be added as portfolio stock. Kotak Bank ( after the fall due to RBI regulation can be added slowly whenever there is a dip), Bankof Maharasthra ( Can be added) ,Canara bank can be accumulated slowly & more after the Q4 result. Following Finance Stocks can be added as it posted good results are Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Fin Serv, Manappuram Finance, Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Ceat & JK tyres can add these stocks to portfolio. Please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) Medium term support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). To continue buy on dips initial target 50000. Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on Market, Expected election outcome & Nifty IT. Nifty 22419- Short & medium term (Neutral) As insisted in the last month, Market need to decisively close above 22800 to move up further. As expected last week for come back rally market went up.As mentioned in the past month, nifty almost reached the near term target 22819 two weeks before (Fibonacci extended resistance target) and started falling ( 22819 Target- which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000 and again trying to cross it. Short term support 22230 (MA 50)/22000/21800 Medium term Support - 21721 (Mar Low),21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Long Term Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue. Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence whenever there is a dip in the market, continue to buy on small quanties till post election survey results are revealed on Jun1- Jun 3rd and Jun 4th Election results. Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Nifty IT broke the Major support at 34918 /34000 two weeks before and went upto 32919. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly. It need to break above 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. Especially Indian IT stocks is in a non decisive path and downtrend.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
What does Arrow in the chart of Nifty say? Arrow in the chart of Nifty is pointing in the direction of which Nifty intends to go in the long term. There may be some slip-ups in the short run but in the long run Nifty will be seen travelling in the direction the arrow is pointing. Today Nifty returned from an important trendline resistance of 22625. crossing the same will be a little bit of a challenge. If we get a weekly closing above 22625 Nifty can quickly make new highs in the coming days with resistance at 22692 and 22775. In case the mid arrow support is broken tomorrow we may see a down side with supports at 22545, 22481, 22430, 22380 and 22304. Below 22304 Nifty becomes weak again and bears can start calling the shots. Shadow of the candle is negative to neutral as of now.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
S&P Bears are strong but Bulls still have a chanceLast week, sellers firmly controlled the market. Buyers attempted to defend March's low, but the bears left them no chance. Prices consistently declined for six consecutive days, with the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) appearing even more bearish. We are now approaching a critical juncture, which presents a significant opportunity for buyers to take a stand. The daily RSI is nearing an oversold condition, and simultaneously, the price is approaching the SMA100 alongside a horizontal support level ( 490 ) from the February consolidation. There is no absolute certainty that buyers will seize this opportunity, but we should closely monitor the price action next week. Although sellers have demonstrated their strength, we are still in a weekly uptrend, and trends do not end easily unless there is a radical shift in sentiment. Despite negative news in recent weeks, nothing has emerged as critically detrimental yet. However, this could change, so we must regularly reassess the situation as new information becomes available. The short-term outlook remains bearish, but this could change depending on how the price reacts to these support levels. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
Strong resistance around 22447 blocked Nifty rallyA strong resistance around 22447 blocked the bull rally of Nifty today. If this resistance is not crossed the Nifty will try to re-test the supports. There is a strong support in the range of 22279 and 22312 region which includes 50 EMA, 200 EMA (Mother Father lines) and a trend line support. If these supports are broken we can see weakness which can lead Nifty further down to 22201 or even 21972 levels. If the Nifty successfully crosses and closes above 22447, further resistances will be found at 22510, 22612, 22692 and 22780. A frantic Bull-Bear tussle is going on and it will be interesting to see which side is able to call the shots during reminder of the week.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Very Positive close by Nifty indicating more bullishnessMore up move is on card baring there is no further bad news related to Iran and Israel conflict and other news surrounding the Middle East and Levant nations. The closing above 50 and 200 EMA hourly indicates that there might be more bullishness in store for Nifty with resistances at 22430 and 22517. If these 2 levels are crossed easily then we may see 22692, 22780 and even 23K+ levels in Nifty in the coming weeks or months. Supports on the lower side for Nifty in case there is some negativity remain at 22201, 21972, 21784 and 21716. Below 21716 bears again take control of Nifty.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
S&P weekly consolidation in progressAt the end of last week, sellers confirmed weekly consolidation by closing below the previous week's low. From now on, bears have control over the price on the weekly timeframe. We should monitor the progression of weekly lows and highs to see when things start to shift, but until then, we should trust the sellers. It is also notable that if we look at the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), we can see that buyers were unable to close above the previous day's high for the last 10 trading days. If buyers want to regain control, this will be their first objective. Please note that the price is currently positioned near the previous month's low, which can provide an intermediate support level. If you’re planning to short the market, it is better to wait for a pullback or for a breakout with retest. Finally, if weekly consolidation will convert into monthly consolidation it will be a major win for bears. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
Nifty took a critical support at 21777. (A number to watch)Nifty fell like a hot knife going through butter slab reacting to Iran Israel news. There was some respite today as Nifty has takena support at 21777 and bounced back to close the week at 22147 staging a remarkable recovery. 21777 will remain a critical support to watch for reminder of the month. In case this support is not held further supports will be only between the range of 21157 and 20973. If 20973 is further falls casualty to any escalation between Iran and Israel, we still have a strong support near 20592 which is also a Mid channel support. If by chance mid channel support is broken there can be a free fall towards 20237 or even 18878 levels if situation worsens. On the positive side of it if 21777 is respected we can further see resistances near 22318, 22514 and ATH resistance near 22775 levels. Things are delicately poised but let us hope peace prevails and we see nifty bouncing back drastically in the coming week or weeks. Local sentiments still remain good except for the fact that some FIIs are not happy with tax heavens status withdrawal from Mauritius. Global factors specially related to Israel and Iran are governing the global sentiments currently.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Market Outlook: Israel and Iran Conflict continues to haunt. After taking a drastic beating due to Israel and Iran conflict Nifty today has taken a support near Mother line (50 EMA). There is also a trend line support at the same place. If there is no bad news in next one or two days we might see a reversal in Nifty in favor of Bulls. In case there is some more bad news we may see bears tightening the grip over the market. Right now main factors driving the market are global. One in global inflation and commodity prices (Specially metals/ Precious metals and crude oil) and Israel and Iran conflict. Local factors are firmly looking good and no changes seen. If there is a full scale war the imp act will be Global and no market will remain insulated from the same. But India because of local factors and neutral stance (which might be challenged as well) will be the first or the fastest to bounce back. Supports for Nifty are at 22113, 21722, 21145 and finally 20767. Resistances for Nifty will be at 22214, 22306, 22421 and 22513. Disclaimer: The Purpose of this analysis is purely for Education. Any decision to invest in shares of F&O should not be taken based on it. This is just to show you how technical analysis works.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24 Nifty closed at 22519 (22513) and touched low & high of 22435 & 22782 Nifty touched new high last week and reduced 1 % due to global cues on last day. Global tension caused mild drop in last working day of market. Depends the situation market will react next week. Expecting a mild fall till 22000 and may raise afterwards. RSI and stochastics levels was marginally down last week(57% & 71% Respectively). Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on market and election outcome. Nifty IT 35018(35250) - Nifty IT marginally decreased last three weeks. To continue hold and buy on dips. Nifty IT touched 20 days before new high (38550) and started falling. Major support at 34918 /34000. Can add more at 33288 with Target 40000. Nifty bank 48565 (48535) - As expected Nifty Bank increased in the last month gaining near to 6.5%. Nifty touched the near time target provided at 48618 & touched new high of 49063. Medium term support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). To continue buy on dips. Nifty 22519- Short & medium term (Neutral) Nifty moved up in the last week touched new high 22782. As mentioned in the past month, nifty almost reached the near term target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) iwhich is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000. Short term support 22000/21900 Medium term Support - 21721 (Mar Low),21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Long Term Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue. Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000. Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank in nearing the target provided (48600). Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Continue to buy on dips. As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
S&P bears attack, bulls still holdLast week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didn’t have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldn’t develop this into something more significant, as the bulls returned with a firm "no". The rest of the week continued in the same tug-of-war fashion. The most confusing days were Thursday and Friday. Thursday started very bullish but ended with a dramatic bearish turn. Friday, expected to be bearish, unfolded under the bulls' control. This was a story. Now, let’s now review all the signals more formally: Bearish Signals • Confirmed downtrend on the daily chart, indicated by a lower high and lower low. • Weekly consolidation has begun. Bullish Signals • The week closed right at the previous week's low after price shaped hourly higher low • Friday’s value zone is within the value zone of the previous four days. The context remains very bullish – price is in a strong weekly uptrend, last month closed very strong. Overall, it is a very ambiguous case with neither side having a clear advantage. Buyers are exhausted, yet not willing to capitulate. Bears are attempting to play their game but lack sufficient strength. The short-term outlook is neutral. From this position market can go in any direction. We need additional signs of one side gaining an upper hand. Until then, it is not advisable to place big bets on either side. Wednesday is a very important day, with both the release of inflation data and the FOMC meeting Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
2
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 08-Apr-24 to 12-Apr-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 08-Apr-24 to 12-Apr-24 Nifty closed at 22513 (22335 ) and touched low & high of 22335 & 22606 Nifty Still undecisive need to cross all time high firmly. RSI and stochastics levels was up and retaining same position like prev week(61% & 86% Respectively). Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on market and election outcome. Nifty IT 35250(35042) - Nifty IT marginally decreased last two weeks. To continue hold and buy on dips. Nifty IT touched 20 days before new high (38550) and started falling. Major support at 34918 /34000. Can add more at 33288 with Target 40000. Nifty bank 48535 (47118) - As expected Nifty Bank increased in the last 3 weeks gaining near to 5% . It is nearing the initial Target 48618 (All time high). support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). To continue buy on dips. Nifty 22513- Short & medium term (Neutral) Nifty moved up in the last week touched new high 22618. As mentioned for the past three weeks, nifty next target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000. Short term support 22000/21900 Medium term Support - 21721 (Mar Low),21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Long Term Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue. Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000. Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank in nearing the target provided (48600). Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Continue to buy on dips. As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
S&P still very strong; rally goes onLast week began with bearish consolidation, which was short-lived. The bulls quickly regained control, established a daily higher low, and broke through the previous week's resistance at 524.1 . Although the breakout was not very strong, it was still meaningful. The March close was very strong, posting a +3% gain, and both weekly and daily charts are indicating an uptrend. All major sectors appear strong. The bulls have full control, and the rally is likely to continue. This week is heavily loaded with economic data releases, which might cause some volatility. However, unless there are major surprises, it should not affect our main thesis. Important level to watch is 518.4 . As long as it holds, buyers are in control Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 02-Apr-24 to 05-Apr-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 02-Apr-24 to 05-Apr-24 Nifty closed at 22462 on 01-Apr-24 (22096 on 22-Mar-24) and touched low & high of 21893 & 22517 RSI and stochastics levels have improved last week (61% & 92% Respectively). Market was volatile in the month of March and in the end of the month started to increase. Market touched new high on 01-Apr-24 (22522). Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on market and election outcome. Nifty IT 35042 (35188) - Nifty IT marginally decreased. To continue hold and buy on dips. Nifty IT touched 20 days before new high (38550) and started falling. Major support at 34918 /34000. Can add more at 33288 with Target 40000. Nifty bank 47578 (46863) -To continue buy on dips. As expected Nifty Bank increased in the last 2 weeks. It is nearing the initial Target 48618 (All time high). support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). Purchase on Dips. Nifty 22462- Short & medium term (Neutral) Nifty moved up in the last week touched new high 22522. As mentioned for the past three weeks, Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak. nifty next target 22819 (Fib Resistance)/23000. Short term Support - 21900, 21721 (Mar Low) Medium term Support at 21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart.20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance) Long Term Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 19500 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue. Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000. Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank in nearing the target provided (48600). Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Continue to buy on dips. As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
S&P rally continuesAt the start of last week, things didn’t look great for the bulls. There were several signs of weakness that could have easily led to a daily trend reversal. However, that didn’t materialize. Firstly, on Monday, buyers were able to set a daily higher low. Then, on Wednesday, they positioned the price very close to the previous two weeks' high. Finally, with the help of the FOMC, they broke through the resistance, set a new historical high, and held it into the week's closure. All these factors together confirm the strength of the bulls and position them well for rally continuation. AMEX:SPY outlook for the next week is bullish. Pullbacks should be considered as buying opportunities. Short trades should be avoided unless you are a scalper. Stay alert of economic data releases on Thursday (GDP) and Friday (Personal Income/Spendings and FED) that could cause some volatility. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 26-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 26-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24 Nifty closed at 22096 (22023) and touched low & high of 21710 & 22175 RSI and stochastics levels have improved last week (51% & 47% Respectively). Market closed almost flat last week Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on market and election outcome. Nifty IT 35188 (37517) -To continue hold and buy on dips. Nifty IT touched 20 days before new high (38550) and started falling. Major support at 34918 /34000. Can add more at 33288 with Target 40000. Nifty bank 46863 (46591) -To continue buy on dips. Nifty Bank last week dipped. initial Target 48618 ( all time high). if it cross this resistance decisively. support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). Purchase on Dips. Nifty 22096- Short & medium term (Neutral) Nifty still in undecisive state at present and will be rangebound. As mentioned for the past three weeks, Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak. nifty next target 22819 (Fib Resistance)/23000. Short term Support - 21900, 21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Medium term Support at 20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance) Long Term Market expected range bound between 23000 to 18800 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Election outcome analysis i have prepared is available in website in my profile and my X account karthik_ss Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support. Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. But to a surprise Nifty IT moved up 4-5% up as US economy is recovering. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000. Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Nifty Bank ( 46554) tried to move above key resistances. Continue to buy on dips. As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
S&P: Bearish signals mount but buyers still have controlLast week began with a display of strong conviction from buyers, propelling price upwards towards the previous high (516.5). They managed to surpass it by a small margin, establishing a new historical high at 517.1. Unfortunately, bulls were unable to sustain momentum and build a new value zone, allowing bears to regain control and push price back towards the previous low. All these developments signal daily uptrend exhaustion. Trend is close to reversal, but it is not there yet. Sellers must prove their strength by taking down the last week low (506,9). Until then it is still bulls market and buyers have control. The outlook for the next week is neutral. Long term Buyers should refrain from increasing position and consider (partial) profit taking. Sellers can try shorting the market but remember that odds are still slightly in favor of the opposite side. Wednesday (20th) is an important day for the market as FED will announce interest rate decision. P.S. for some reason weekly high on the daily chart doesn’t match weekly high on the weekly chart. I have reported this issue to TV support Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
Nifty Entering a Resistance zone after a making a good comeback.After making a low of 21710 yesterday has made a good comeback in one and a half session closing the day at 22011. Now Nifty is staring into a strong resistance zone. The resistance zone starts from the high of today. i.e. 22080 and ends at 22206. This zone consists of trend line resistance and mid channel resistance as well. Closing this week above 22206 will send a strong signal to the buyers who might return enmass post crossing this level. The next resistances after crossing 22206 will be near 22301, 22449 and 22526. On the lower side if these resistances act too strongly Nifty has a support at 22080, 21868 (50 days EMA) or mother line support, and 21710 which was the recent low. Below 21710 closing if at all it happens there can be further blood bath.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 19-Mar-24 to 22-Mar-24Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 19-Mar-24 to 22-Mar-24 Nifty closed at 22023(22493) and touched low & high of 21905 & 22524 RSI and stochastics levels are same in this week (47% & 21% Respectively). Stochastics is in oversold zone. Market touched a new high last week Monday 22524. RBI issued warning on excessive rally on Mid & Small Cap to control liquidity. Hence Mid & Small Cap corrected last week. Market waiting for to take clear position (to go up or down). Market closed almost flat on first day of this week i.e 18-Mar-24. Nifty IT 37517 (37099) -To continue hold. Nifty IT touched new high of 38550 20 days before. Major support at 34918 /34000. Target can be 40000. Nifty bank 46591 (47853) -To continue buy on dips. Nifty Bank last week dipped. initial Target 48618 ( all time high). if it cross this resistance decisively. support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). Purchase on Dips. Nifty Bank last week high was 47864 and dipped to low to 46316. Refer to detailed comments in the bottom. Nifty 22023- Short & medium term (Neutral) Nifty is undecisive state at present and will be rangebound. As mentioned for the past three weeks, Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak. nifty next target 22819 (Fib Resistance)/23000. Short term Support - 21900, 21554 (Fib Support),20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Medium term Support at 20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance) Long Term Market expected range bound between 23000 to 18800 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down. Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support. Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. But to a surprise Nifty IT moved up 4-5% up as US economy is recovering. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000. Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Nifty Bank ( 46554) tried to move above key resistances. Continue to buy on dips. As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss