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MARKETS week ahead: July 8 – 14Last week in the news The non-farm payrolls and unemployment data shaped investors sentiment on financial markets during the previous week. Friday was the day of significant volatility, which brought US Treasury yields down to the level of 4.28%. Weakening of the US Dollar pushed the price of gold to higher grounds, ending the week at level of $2.391. The US equity markets were also supported by the market sentiment on a Fed`s potential rate cut in September, where S&P 500 reached a new all time highest level. The crypto market was the only one which was traded on a negative side. The BTC was testing levels around the $ 54K, however, ending the week around $58K. The most important macro figures for the week were posted on Friday. The non-farm payrolls for June surged to 206K, significantly above market estimated 190K. At the same time, the unemployment rate was increased to 4.1% in June from 4.0% posted in May. These figures increased market optimism that the Fed still might cut rates in September, as they suggest that job openings have improved, but the employment trend is still modestly weakening. Increased unemployment rate also indicates that the inflator pressures coming from the job market should continue cooling down, which implies a potential for a rate cut during the course of this year. September still holds as the current estimate of the majority of market participants. During the week Tesla reported its Q2 vehicle deliveries figures which were significantly higher from the market estimate. This made an impact on the price of Tesla`s shares which gained 27% during the week. However, with this significant increase, Tesla managed to cover losses for this year. The share price reached $251.55, while they ended the year 2023 at level of $248.48. The crypto market was shaken during the week, after the news was released that the bankrupt crypto exchanger Mt. Gox will pay out around $9 billion to its affected users. The payouts already started in Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash to some creditors through a number of crypto exchangers. The rest of funds will be distributed when “conditions are met” in terms of validity of registered accounts. As analysts are noting, this significantly increased number of coins on the market will put selling pressure on BTC. As Reuters is reporting, the government of Peru announced that it will receive around $300 million credit over a period of 15 years in order to support the digital transformation of the country. Peru`s creditor is German KfW Development Bank. Further details on digital transformation have not been disclosed. At the same time, Peru is the third country in the world by the production of copper, while its economy grew between 4.5% and 5.0% on a yearly basis in May. Crypto market cap The final breakthrough of pressures on the crypto market occurred during the previous week. The crypto market has been slowing down for the last three weeks, while there are several reasons behind it which collide together within the short time frame. The latest news from the previous week is that bankrupt crypto exchanger Mt. Gox announced that it will return to creditors some $9 billion through Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash. Market participants knew that this amount would put a huge selling pressure on BTC and the crypto market, so the final selloff was triggered. The selling pressure from crypto miners is another aspect to consider. Traditionally, this sale reaches its maximum during the summer time, where it has been estimated that this year only, crypto miners sold around 40.000 BTC worth around $2.5 billion. A continuous drop in BTC price pushed the funds from crypto based ETF`s where they for the first time became net sellers instead of net buyers. In addition to that, it should be considered the announcement from the German government that it will sell its BTC holding worth around $2.8 billion. And, on top of it, it should be taken into account that a strong drop in the value of BTC and other altcoins triggered margin calls for leveraged positions. The combination of all these effects, pushed the total crypto market cap down by 6% as of the end of this week, wiping out some $124B in value. It should be noted that during the week, the crypto market cap dropped by $170B in one moment. Daily trading volumes were also increased to the level of $124B on a daily basis, from $94B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $443B, which represents a 27% surge from the beginning of this year. The coin which dragged the crypto market to the downside during the previous week was BTC. It lost around 5% in the value, erasing $57.8B from its market cap. ETH naturally took the second place, with a drop in value of 9.7%, decreasing its cap by $39.5B. Binance Coin was also among significant weekly losers, by decreasing its cap by more than 8%, wiping $6.8B from its cap. XRP was down by 6.2%, where it lost $1.6B from its market cap. Significant losers in relative terms were, among others, Litecoin with a drop of 13.7% w/w, NEO was down by 12.7%, OMG Network lost almost 11% , same as Filecoin. Interestingly, there have been only a few coins which managed to end the week at a higher level on a weekly basis. Polkadot managed to increase its cap by 2.5% on a weekly basis, while Tron was higher by 3.4% for the week. It should also be mentioned Solana, which ended the week relatively flat, same as Algorand. Tether was a coin which lost 0.5% of its circulating coins, decreasing by this percentage its total market capitalization. On the other side were Algorand and Filecoin, which both increased the number of their coins on the market by 0.3%. Maker added 0.2% of new coins to the market. Crypto futures market Crypto futures also reacted to developments from the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded significantly lower from the week before. BTC short term futures ended the week by some 8% on average. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at $56.800 or 8.85% lower from the week before. December 2025 closed the week at $65.215 or 6% lower on a weekly basis. Similar situation was with ETH futures, but with higher weekly drop in future levels. Short term ones were traded around 10% lower, while those with longer maturities were down by more than 11%. ETH futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at the level of $3.117, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $3.339.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
MARKETS week ahead: July 1 – July 7Last week in the news Inflation data were in focus of markets during the previous week. The US PCE data published on Friday, impacted some repositioning among asset classes. The US equities reacted to the inflation data by ending Friday`s trading session in red. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.460. The US Dollar modestly weakened during the week, allowing gold to recover some of the weekly losses, ending the week at level of $2.340. The strongest reaction to posted data had 10Y Treasury yields, which were increased to the level of 4.4%. The crypto market continues to be under pressure, where BTC was testing the lower grounds during the week, still, ending it above $60K support level. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index for May was published on Friday. The index was standing at the level of 2.6% y/y, and at the same level as core PCE. Figures for May represent its lowest level within the last three years. Despite the evident decrease in inflation pressures, the markets are still not sure regarding the Fed`s pivoting point in time. The majority of market participants are still perceiving that the first rate cut might occur in September this year. As CNBC is reporting, a new wave of M&A activities started within the crypto mining industry, noting as a catalyst artificial intelligence. Namely, as crypto miners have the necessary equipment for “compute-intensive AI operations' ', initially installed for the mining of crypto coins, they became a target of larger companies within the field of AI. In this sense, a Nvidia backend start-up, CoreWeave announced a deal with Core Scientific company. It is noted that the deal is expected to generate additional $1.2 billion in revenues within the next 12 years. In line with the development of AI technology and the demand for data centers, the European Union has finalized their study on a potential for launching data centers in Earth's orbit. As the demand for electricity is significantly increasing due to the developments in the digital sectors, the ASCEND is trying to solve the issue through using solar energy within the Earth's orbit. After BTC and ETH, Solana is the next one to be eligible for an exchange traded fund. As per news reports, VanEck asset management company in the US filed with the SEC for a registration of selling shares through a Solana ETF. VanEck`s researchers believe that the Solana is acting like a commodity and not a security, and that it acts like a competitor to Ethereum blockchain. Solana rose 8% on this news. China is slowly gearing up to be the leader of the global market within the field of electric vehicles. As per study conducted by the consulting firm AlixPartners, the Chinese automakers will achieve a 33% global market share of EV by 2030. However, the firm is noting far slower expansion in Japan and North America, considering the 100% tariff on imported Chinese EV`s that these countries are imposing on imports from China. Crypto market cap For the second week in a row the crypto market is slowing down. Investors' interest continues to be focused on inflation data, in which sense, recent posted PCE and consumer confidence data had also some impact on the crypto market. Anticipation of the next Fed move when it comes to interest rates continues to be a major concern of market participants, in which sense, some repositioning is occurring. During the previous week, total crypto market capitalization decreased by additional 4%, wiping out some $86B from the market value. Daily trading volumes continue to move around $94B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $567B, which represents a 35% surge from the beginning of this year. Previous week`s drop in total crypto market capitalization was led by its major coins, BTC and ETH, while other altcoins were traded in a mixed manner. BTC lost 5.2% of its value on a weekly basis, losing more than $ 66B in market cap. ETH took the second place with outflow of $20.8B from its market cap, which is a decrease of 4.9% within a single week. Binance Coin was also traded to a downside, losing $2.5B in market cap, or 2.9%. One of the highest losers within the week in relative terms was Uniswap, with a drop in value of 10.1%. However, there were coins which managed to increase their value on a weekly basis. Solana should be specially mentioned, with a weekly gain of 5.4%, adding $3.3B to its market cap. This increase came after news hit the market that asset manager VanEck filed with the SEC for a registration of selling shares through a Solana ETF. Tron and Polkadot had a good week, with an increase in market cap of more than 5%. When it comes to coins in circulation, ETH was the greatest weekly surprise. Namely, around 1.7% of its coins were pulled off from the market. There is currently no public information what`s the cause of such a move. This week IOTA had one of the highest increases of coins on the market, with a surge of 0.6% on a weekly basis. Filecoin increased its circulating coins by 0.3%. Crypto futures market Two weeks ago the spot crypto market turned to a short correction, still, there has not been some significant response from the crypto futures market. However, during the previous week, there has been some significant correction, when it comes to the crypto futures. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower from the week before. BTC short term futures ended the week around 5% lower from the week before. December 2024 was traded by 7.7% lower from the end of the previous week, ending it at $62.315. Futures maturing in December 2025 were traded lower by 6.7%, with a closing price of $69.385. Similar situation was also with ETH futures. Short term ones were traded around 7% lower from the week before, while December 2024 ended the week by a round 4% drop in value, with the last traded price at $3.505. December 2025 had a slower drop of 3.45% on a weekly basis, closing the week at $3.774.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: June 24 – 30Last week in the news Markets used the week after the FOMC meeting for some repositioning and profit-takings in expectation of new data which will provide a clue when the Fed will start its pivoting cycle. The S&P 500 finished the week lower, after reaching a new all time highest level, where Nvidia for one more time was in the center of market interest. The US Dollar gained in strengths, pushing the price of gold toward the level of $2.321. The US 10Y Treasury yields remained relatively calm modestly above the 4.20% level, while the crypto market was eyeing lower grounds, and BTC testing the $ 65K support line during the whole week. China was in the center of the news during the previous week, as the both US and EU are imposing further restrictions for products made in China. The negotiations were held between EU and China officials related to tariffs that the EU will impose on China's electric vehicles, in an attempt to protect its own auto industry. On the other hand, the US issued a set of rules which would put a halt to specific investments in the products related to artificial intelligence and other technological developments in China, under the reasoning that they might impose a threat to the US national security. Apple has announced that their three new features named Apple Intelligence, which is based on AI, iPhone Mirroring and enhancements to SharePlay screen shall not be launched in the European Union upon its official release. The company notes that “the interoperability requirements of the DMA could force us to compromise the integrity of our products in ways that risk user privacy and data security”. Although such a move from a company might disappoint consumers in the EU, and in this sense, potentially decrease the sale of Apple devices in EU countries, still, the market for Apple shares remained flat on the news. The US banking regulators publicly disclosed the weaknesses in the resolution plans in four from eight US largest banks, including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Deficiencies in plans were related to derivative portfolios and the way the banks are planning to handle any potentially negative situation. The regulators noted that plans of these companies have “material limitations”. Standard Chartered bank announced that it will establish a trading desk where their clients will be able to trade bitcoin and ether coins. The desk will be based in London as a part of the bank`s FX trading unit. Standard Chartered will be the first bank to allow its clients to trade BTC and ETH directly from their trading platform. Crypto market cap Crypto market continued to slow down also during the previous week. Fed`s pivoting point is still in the center of market interests, in which sense, some repositioning is occurring, considering latest available data on the state of the US economy and potential next Fed`s moves. Currently decreased interest for BTC is evident not only on the spot market, but also in the futures and among ETF`s. As per news reports, BTC ETF`s faced some $900 millions in outflows during the previous week. As the market is searching for new equilibrium levels, the crypto market lost additional 3% in value on a weekly level, losing around $ 69B from its market cap. Daily trading volumes were again decreased to the level of $93B on a daily basis, from $120B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $653B, which represents a 40% surge from the beginning of this year. The majority of coins were on a losing track during the previous week, except only a few ones which ended the week in a positive territory. In a nominal sense, BTC lost the most of all coins, around $38B on a weekly basis, or 2.9%. ETH managed to end the week relatively flat compared to the week before. Among higher weekly losers were Binance Coin, with a drop in value of $2.8B or 3.1%, there was also Solana, which dropped its market cap by $4.9B or 7.3% w/w. In a relative terms, the highest weekly losers were coins like OMG Network, with a drop in value of 16.3%, Zcash was down by 11.4% same as NEO, Filecoin and Uniswap both lost around 15% on a weekly basis, while Algorand was down by 12.7%. The majority of other altcoins dropped up to 10% w/w. Among few gainers were EOS, who managed to increase its cap by 14.8% w/w, while Maker ended the week higher by 7%. There has been some increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. In this sense ETH`s circulating coins increased by 1.8% on a weekly level, Tether increased its number of coins by 0.3%, same as the total value of its market cap. This week LINK had an increase of its circulating coins by 3.6%, while Filecoin, traditionally increased the number of its coins in circulation by 0.6% w/w. Crypto futures market Decreased activity on the crypto futures market continues. In line with the spot market BTC futures were traded lower compared to the week before, while ETH futures ended the week higher. BTC short term futures were traded lower by more than 2%. Futures maturing in December 2024, closed the week at price $67.560 or 2.5% lower from the week before, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $74.355 relatively flat on a weekly level. ETH short term futures closed the week around 3% higher. Futures maturing in December 2023 ended the week at $3.651 or 3.3% higher w/w, while December 2025 was closed 3.7% higher at level of $3.909.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Dell (DELL): Analyzing Recent Trends and Future ExpectationsDell Technologies has experienced a remarkable rise of approximately 440% within a span of about one and a half years. However, this impressive ascent has been marked by a bearish divergence at the current top. The RSI has been forming lower tops while the price chart has been forming higher tops, indicating weakening momentum. Current Situation: Trend Channel: Dell shot above the trend channel, but quickly corrected downwards with a significant gap down, losing around 12% in a single day. Support Level: The price found support within the trend channel, likely marking Wave A. Expectations: Wave B and C : We anticipate the formation of Wave B followed by Wave C, potentially moving into the open gap area. Although part of the gap between $94.44 and $104 has already been tagged, there is still some remaining that could be fully closed. Critical Levels: It is crucial for the $80 level to hold. A break below this level could lead to further declines towards the $68 or even $60 range. Key Points to Monitor: Bearish Divergence: The bearish divergence on the RSI suggests potential further downside. Gap Fill: Watch for a potential move to fill the remaining gap. Support at $80: Maintaining support at $80 is critical to prevent deeper declines.
NYSE:DELLLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
MARKETS week ahead: June 10 – 17Last week in the news Macro fundamentals were the ones that significantly moved markets during the previous week. The US jobs data were the ones that strongly pushed market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates during the course of this year. The US Dollar gained during the week, while the price of gold sharply dropped to the level of $2.293. US Treasuries also reacted on jobs data, pushing the yield toward 4.43% for one more time. The only market that was relatively calm was the crypto market, where BTC was trying for one more time to clearly break the $70K, but for one more time the attempt was without success. The major news during the previous week is that the ECB started pivoting. In their regular meeting, held during the previous week, the ECB members decided to cut interest rates by 25%. In her after the meeting comments, ECB President Lagarde noted that the inflation has decreased enough within the Euro Area, which supported ECB`s decision. She also noted that the ECB members are “not committing to any particular rate path” suggesting that it is not clear whether there will be more rate cuts in the coming months. It should be noted that the inflation in May reached 2.6%, which is a bit higher from the ECB target of 2%. On the other hand, the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead. It is currently expected that the Fed will not make any changes to its current interest rates. However, as per current market expectations, there is a 68% chance that the Fed will make its first pivoting move in September this year. At the same time, the latest posted jobs figures show mixed results. On one hand, the US unemployment rate reached 4.0% in May, a bit higher from previous 3.9%, while the non-farm payrolls figure increased by 272K in May, significantly surpassing market estimate of 185K. The price of gold significantly dropped on Friday, on the news that the Bank of China halted its further purchases of gold to its reserves in May, after 18 months of consecutive purchases. The data showed that the PBoC was holding 72.8 million ounces of gold in May, which was the same as in April. The value of China's gold reserves amounts to $170.96 billion. Analysts involved in the matter are commenting that the PBoC is not nearing the actual halt of gold purchases. They are noting that currently elevated prices of gold are not attractive for PBoC purchases, but they will hold until the price of gold consolidates in the near future period. News are reporting that the largest Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the Norges Bank Investment management (NBIM) will vote against ratification of the $56 billion pay package for Tesla`s CEO Elon Musk. The fund is noting that that the amount is too high and that it is unfair for the shareholders. The fund holds 0.98% stake in Tesla, worth around $7.7 billion. Crypto market cap The US macro data were in the spotlight of investors sentiment during the previous week, where the crypto market was left a bit aside. The markets full focus is now on the forthcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, June 12th, when investors will be provided with a Fed's latest overview of the macro developments, and potentially information on their future course of action. Of course, the markets are most interested when the Fed will start pivoting. Until the first pivot occurs, the market nervousness around FOMC meetings will remain high. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 1% on a weekly basis, where BTC was driving the market to the upside. At the same time, daily trading volumes were significantly decreased, moving around $85B on a daily basis, which is a significant drop from the week before, when the market was trading around $113B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $843B, which represents a 51% surge from the beginning of this year. Despite the weekly increase in total market capitalization, still, the crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. There were almost the equal number of coins which ended the week in green and those with a weekly result in red. Regardless of a higher weekly volatility, BTC gained around 2.7% on a weekly level, increasing its capitalization by $36B. Ether ended the week in red, losing around 2.7% w/w or $12B. Solana also lost $2.5B in the market cap, decreasing it by 3.2%. Among higher losing coins were DASH with a drop in value of 12.6%, EOS lost 11.1%, Zcash dropped by 12%, while OMG Network lost 35.7% on a weekly basis. Among coins which gained during the week were Monero, with an increase in value of 13.6%, Binance Coin was among significant gainers with an increase of the market cap by $12B or 14.1%. Filecoin should also be mentioned, as it increased its market cap by 7%. Increased developments with coins in circulation continues. Filecoin added 0.5% more coins to the market during the previous week. Solana increased its coins in circulation by 0.2%, same as Stellar. Tether`s market cap and circulating coins surged by 0.3% on a weekly basis. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was generally following developments on the spot market, however, it should be noted that the general interest for the crypto futures decreased during the previous week, which coincided with significantly decreased daily trading volumes on the crypto spot market. BTC both short and long term futures were traded around 2% higher from the week before for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at level of $73.750, while those maturing a year later ended the week at the level of $77.025. ETH short term futures were traded around 2.8% lower from the week before, while those with longer maturities were traded relatively flat compared to the week before.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: June 2 – 8Last week in the news The potential timing of the approval of the first ETH ETF and the US inflation data continues to be the major focus of investors on financial markets. The crypto market went into relatively quiet mode during the previous week., while the major developments were on the side of traditional markets. The S&P 500 managed to finish May 4.8% higher from the month before, however, some weakening in investors optimism is evident. The nervousness regarding the PCE data pushed the 10Y US yields toward the level of 4.6%, still, the yields relaxed a bit, after the posted data were in line with market expectations. The price of gold was traded in a relatively short range in line with the US Dollar moves. The market started the week in expectation of the PCE data for May, as this indicator represents one of the Fed's favourite gauges for the inflation. Released data showed that the PCE Price Index was standing at 2.7% in April, exactly in line with market expectations. Core PCE was 2.8%, without a change from the previous month. Core PCE was increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis, while PCE index was up by 0.3% for the month. Although analysts welcomed PCE data in line with their expectations, still, they are arguing that there is no improvement in data which will clearly show that the inflation is on a down path toward 2%. In their latest FOMC meeting, Fed officials asked for more time, in which sense, the markets will have to stay patient, as new readings on inflation are coming. Analysts and crypto professionals are generally reacting positively on SEC`s approval of holdings in the ETH, however, concern stays over the timing when the first ETH ETF will be approved. Jan van Eck, a CEO of VanEck investment company, noted in an interview with CNBC a positive move from the SEC, as they were on the road to “lose any kind of jurisdiction over digital assets'' and that with their latest move “there is a bigger narrative going on”. Several other investors also commented in a positive note to the SEC's decision, but when regulation is in question, currently the bigger impact will come from the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, or FIT21, which has passed in the House during May this year, but it's adoption by the Senate, remains unclear until the election in the US this year. A company behind stablecoin Tether is expanding further its business. As per news report, Tether agreed to buy a Singapore-based bitcoin miner Bitdeer (BTDR) for the total price of $150 million. As noted, Bitdeer will use the funds to expand its data centre as well as ASIC-based mining development. Crypto market cap The crypto market slowed down during the previous week. News regarding SEC`s approval of exchange traded funds to hold Etherum`s native token is still digested by the market. The timing of the first approved ETH ETF is still unknown, in which sense, the market pulled a bit in order to reconsider in which direction SEC is actually pulling its decision – whether it was a political one or imposed by the several prior court decisions. Total market capitalization decreased by 1% during the previous week, with an outflow of $35B from this market. Daily trading volumes decreased to the level of $113B on a daily basis, from $120B traded during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $ 826B, which represents a 50% surge from the beginning of this year. Although two weeks ago Ether was the star of the crypto market, still, during the previous week the majority of coins slowed down. Bitcoin lost some 2% in value, losing $28B in the market cap. Ether modestly gained 1.3% on a weekly basis, adding $6.2B to its cap. The majority of altcoins ended the week in red. Some of the highest losers on a weekly basis were Uniswap, with a drop in value of 10.4%, Theta was down by 11.4%, while Bitcoin Cash dropped by 6.5% and Bitcoin Gold dropped by 8.8% w/w. The majority of other altcoins dropped somewhere between 6% and 2%. On the opposite side was only a small number of coins which managed to gain during the week, like Monero, which was up by 4.2%, LINK was traded higher by 6.6% and Solana, which managed to gain 2.3% on a weekly basis. As for circulating coins, for another week Tether increased the number of its coins on the market by 0.2%, however, several other coins had an significant increase. In this sense, OMG Network had a surge in circulating coins by 2.3%, Miota increased the number of coins by 0.6%, Filecoin traditionally increased the number of its coins, which were higher by 0.5% on a weekly basis. Solana was the winner of the week, where the number of its coins was increased by 2.3% w/w. Crypto futures market There has not been too much activity when the crypto futures market is in question during the previous week. While short term futures were following the spot market, the long term ones for ETH were traded with a modest negative sentiment, and closed the week around 0.25% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December closed the week at $3.939, while those maturing a year later reached the price of $4.136. BTC short term futures were last traded down by 2.5%, while long term ones remained relatively flat on a weekly basis, gaining modest 0.5%. Futures maturing in December 2024 were last traded at $72.065, and those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $76.050.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: May 27 – June 2Last week in the news The most important weekly news comes from the crypto market, as the SEC approved ETH exchange traded funds. The price of both ETH and BTC experienced high volatility during the week, with BTC ending the week above the $69K. The pricing of the first Fed rate cut modestly impacted the 10Y Treasury yields, however the price of gold reacted with a stronger price reversal, closing the week at $2.333. There has also been some volatility in the S & P 500 index, which is ending the week flat, supported by tech companies. The US Secretary and Exchange Commission confirmed that it has approved exchange-traded funds which are holding Ethereum`s native token, ETH. This came as a surprise for markets, as there has been a lot of discussions regarding SEC`s potential decision on spot ETH ETF`s. Now the majority of analysts are questioning whether such a decision was influenced by politics or by several court rules, where SEC lost the case regarding its opinion on coins as securities. Whatever is the real reason, certainly ETH and the crypto market benefited from such a decision. Analysts from UBS have been actively researching and forecasting the price of gold lately. In their latest report, the largest Swiss bank reassessed its forecast for the price of this metal, raising it from $2.500 to $2.600 per ounce. Their reassessment came after the latest market pricing of Fed`s cuts in interest rates during the course of this year. Namely, they took into consideration that the market is currently pricing 40 bps cut in 2024, which was increased from 28 bps previously. As announced by the Russell 1000 Index, there is expectation for reassessment of the companies included in this index, where 38 new names will be included. Among names which are mentioned are Super Micro Computer, MicroStrategy and Carvana. Among all companies, the tech ones are dominant, including MicroStrategy which is investing specifically into BTC. Analysts from Goldman Sachs` prime brokerage noted in their report that hedge funds are selling US equities at rates which were prevalent in January this year. This represents a significant shift in the sentiment, considering that for the last five weeks net buying was dominant. As noted, this shift in sentiment is coming after indication that the Fed's rate might stay elevated for an extended period of time. Crypto market cap There has been another significant milestone reached for the crypto market during the previous week. Although the market was doubting the decision, still the US SEC finally approved exchange traded funds which hold Etherem`s native token, ETH. There should not be specifically noted how the market reacted to this news. As it came as a sort of surprise, the price of ETH went up shortly by more than 20%, and is still holding. Futures also reacted to this news, pushing the price of ETH to the level of more than $4K for the period till the end of the next year. Total market capitalization significantly gained during the week, with an inflow of $137B in funds, which increased its total market cap by 6% on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes were increased to $126B on a daily basis, from $110B traded during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $861B, which represents a 53% surge from the beginning of this year. It should not be specifically mentioned that previous week was ETH`s week. The coin gained significant 20% during the week, on news of the approval of ETH ETF`s. Total funds inflow into this coin was more than $75B. Although BTC had a volatile week, still, the coin managed to gain around 3.4% on a weekly basis, adding GETTEX:44B to its market cap. There are few other coins with relatively good weekly performance. Binance coin added $3.5B to its cap, increasing it by 4.1%. DOGE was also traded on a positive side, with a gain of $2.6B or 11.7% w/w. This week Uniswap should be especially mentioned, as this coin managed to gain even 38% in value from the previous week. ZCash had also a good week with a surge in value of 14%. Algorand was up by more than 5%, OMG Network surged by 7.5%, while LINK was traded higher by 6.3%. Only a few coins ended the week with the losing track, like Tron, which lost 8% in value, while Cardano was down by 5%. There have been relatively minor changes with circulating coins. Tether continues to increase the number of its coins on the market, adding new 0.5% during the previous week. XRP also increased its coins by 0.3%. Traditionally, Filecoin is posting strong increases in coins week by week, adding 0.6% during the previous week. Maker added 0.2% of new coins. Majority of other coins added around 0.1% of new coins on the market. Crypto futures market Crypto futures market reacted positively to the news regarding the approval of the ETH exchange traded funds. The price of this coin was increased by 20% on a weekly basis and the futures market was following developments. Short term futures gained above 20%, while the longer term ones gained more than 28% within the week. ETH futures maturing in December this year reached the price of $3.962, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $4.146. BTC futures also followed positive market sentiment. Futures gained above 2.7% on a weekly basis for all maturities. In this sense, futures maturing in December 2024 closed the week at price $70.795, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $75.605.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: May 19 – 25Last week in the news A new week with new all time highs for S&P 500. Posted inflation figures in the US supported market optimism on Fed's rate cut in September, where the index was pushed to the higher grounds. S&P 500 reached the level of 5.325 on Thursday, still, ending the week at 5.303. The price of Gold was also supported by the expectations on the Fed's rate cut but also on expectations on China's significant stimulus for the boost of its economy. The price of gold reached the level of $2.420 on Fridays trading session, however, its ATH currently stands at $2.430. The USD lost some of its value during the week, while Treasury yields were traded in a mixed manner, with the 10Y benchmark ending the week at 4.42%. It was also a good week for the crypto market. Bitcoin managed to move away from $60K support, and in a swift move reached a level of $67.5K. The latest economic data in the US might provide some glimpse that the inflation is slowing down. The posted inflation rate was standing at 3.4% in April on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April from 3.8% in March y/y. However, markets are still digesting the latest inflation data with other economic data related to the US economy, especially data on jobs and consumer sentiment. The retail sales were at 0% on a monthly basis in April, which was significantly lower from 0.4% expected by the market. These data are showing that the economy is slightly losing ground as a consequence of high interest rates, and that the Fed will be forced to finally cut the rates during the course of this year. Current expectations, with odds of some 54% are that the first cut will be in September. Analysts from Morgan Stanley analyzed the potential number of Fed's rate cuts during this year. They are noting that current expectations and market pricing are favoring two rate cuts this year. However, in their opinion, this might be underestimated, as they are expecting three rate cuts. This opinion is supported by their estimation of disinflation which has started with April CPI data. The first rate cut, by their analysis, should occur in September, as June might be premature. While their US colleagues are focused on potential rate cuts, Swiss UBS is more focused on the price of gold. Analysts from the Swiss UBS bank warned their clients of a potential pull-back in the price of gold. This came in a note to investors. They are stating that the current macro uncertainty could bring some higher volatility to the price of gold, in which sense, they recommend hedging of investors positions. On the other hand, they have stated that they remain bullish on the long-run, with a current price target of $2.500 as of the end of this year. Crypto market cap The minute when some traders started with public complaints that the BTC market became “boring”, BTC decided to show that they are not right. During the previous week the crypto market returned to its old mood characterized with sudden and swift moves toward the one side. Although the majority of coins gained during the week, still, it was Bitcoin which moved the total crypto market capitalization to the upside. It has been increased by 8% on a weekly level, where a total $178B has been added to the value. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased from the week before to the level of $115B on a daily basis, from $122B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $724B, which represents a 44% surge from the beginning of this year. BTC was the coin which led the crypto market to the upside during the previous week. The coin gained more than 10% on a weekly basis, adding $120B to its total market value. ETH also performed relatively well, through an increase in its market cap of 7.1% w/w, increasing it by $25B. Significant weekly gainer was also Solana, which managed to add more than $12B to its value, increasing it by more than 19% w/w. Bitcoin Cash gained on the surge of BTC, whose market cap was increased by 11.5%. LINK should be also mentioned as a significant gainer, as this coin increased its value by 20.8% within a single week. Majority of other altcoins gained somewhere between 3% and 8% during the week. There have been only several weekly losers, like Tron, which dropped in value by 3%, Binance Coin lost $1.8B in value or 2%, while interestingly, Bitcoin Gold was down by 8%. There have been some developments when circulating coins are in question during the week. Tether managed to add 0.4% more coins to the market, increasing its total market value by this percentage. Miota increased its coins in circulation by 0.6% on a weekly level, while traditionally, Filecoin added 0.4% more coins to the market. One of the rare coins which decreased its number of coins on the market was XRP, whose number dropped by 0.1% w/w. Crypto futures market There have been some interesting developments on the crypto futures market during the previous week when it comes to ETH futures. Although short term futures were traded higher by 7.4% on a weekly basis, which was in line with the spot market, still, the long term ones were traded lower by more than 2% on a weekly basis. This was quite an interesting movement, considering that it implies that investors are currently not quite sure about the future price of ETH. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $3.091, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $3.230. BTC futures were fully following investors' optimism from the spot market. Short term futures were traded above 10% higher, while those with longer maturities were last traded above 4% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $71.705, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $73.580.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: May 13 – 19Last week in the news Previous week did not bring some currently significant economic news, however, the market volatility continued. Positive sentiment continues to hold for the US equity market, with S&P 500 heading toward the levels from April this year. The USD continues to modestly weaken, however, the price of gold picked up during the week, closing at $2.360. US Treasury yields were holding relatively steady, with the 10Y US benchmark ending the week at 4.5%. The crypto market continues to be traded with higher volatility, where BTC is ending the week by testing the $60K support. There has not been currently important economic news posted during the previous week, so the market attention was on the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment for May. The index dropped significantly to the level of 67.4 in May, from 77.2 posted for April, and also well below the market estimate. At the same time, inflation expectations rose to 3.5% for a one year period. Based on these readings, economists are noting a switch in the consumer sentiment in terms of increased fears of inflation, unemployment and interest rates which are all moving in an unfavourable direction in the future period, based on the survey. Such negative expectations might impact contraction in consumer spending in a future period, with final impact on the economic output in the US. The week ahead brings inflation data, which will be closely watched by markets. In support to the inflation fears, news is reporting that China's consumer prices rose for the third consecutive month in April. At the same time producer prices continued to decline, which was a signal for markets of improved domestic demand, especially in services. Analysts are noting that China`s central monetary authorities still have a job to do to boost the economy, so some further measures in terms of bank's reserve requirements and interest rates are probable in the future period. The UBS analysts investigated China`s underlying sentiment for gold purchase, and its potential impact on the price of this metal. They noted that Chinese investors are perceiving any dip in prices of gold as a good buying opportunity, with positive expectation over its medium and long term price. On the opposite side, UBS analysts are noting that the central bank of China slowed down with its purchases of gold in Q1 compared to the same period of last year. News are reporting that the first comprehensive regulatory regime for the U.S. crypto currency markets was approved by the House Rules Committee, and is set for a further vote in the House of Representatives. The act is called the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, shortly FIT21, while its aim is to set clear rules for digital asset markets in the US, but also to support US in taking the leadership position in the world innovation hub. Crypto market cap Some traders are noting that the crypto market is currently in its “boring” phase. Indeed, in light of the first BTC ETF followed by BTC halving, the market was driven with a high dose of adrenaline in which sense, the current phase might seem to some as “boring”. But, for others, the calmer phase represents a good trading opportunity for steady profits. Anyway, it is evident that the crypto market exhausted some of the previous extreme moves, and the period of extreme profits is over, for the moment. For some time traders are extracting their funds from the crypto market in order to move them to other assets with a potential for higher profits within a short term. Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the previous week by 5%, where a total $109B was extracted from the market cap. Daily trading volumes continue to be steady, moving around $122B on a daily basis, which is a small drop from $130B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $546B, which represents a 33% surge from the beginning of this year. During the previous week BTC was driving the total crypto market capitalization to the downside, where the coin lost around $63B in value, decreasing it by 5% on a weekly basis. Following BTC, the majority of altcoins finished the week in red. ETH was down by 7.7%, losing around $30B in the market value. XRP was another coin with a drop of $1.8B in the market cap, or 6.2%. This week DOGE and Solana followed the general market sentiment, where DOGE lost 12.5% in value, losing almost SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B in the market cap, while Solana dropped by 2%, losing $1.3B. Some of the highest decreases in market cap experienced Maker, which was down by 8%, IOTA dropped by 7.6%, Algorand was down by 7.5%, while NEO decreased its value by more than 10%. There were only a few gainers among altcoins, like Monero, which was up by 5% for the week, and Tron, which was up by 3% w/w. When it comes to coins in circulation, the highest weekly increase was, traditionally, Filecoin, whose number of coins on the market was up by 0.6%. Solana increased the number of its coins by 0.2%, the same as XRP. This week, Tether slowed down a bit, with an increase in circulating coins by a modest 0.1%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week, however, they were just reflecting developments from the spot market. BTC short term futures ended the trading week around 4% lower from the week before. However, the long term ones were increased by more than 5% as of the end of the week. In this sense, futures maturing in December 2023 were last traded at price $65.795 on the CME, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $69.380. At the same time ETH futures were traded relatively flat for all maturities, except for the short once. In line with developments on the spot market, the short term ETH futures dropped by 7.5% on a weekly level. Futures maturing in December 2024 were traded relatively flat and finished the week at $3.167, while December 2025 ended the trading week at $3.271.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: May 6 – 12Last week in the news As it was expected, the Fed held interest rates without change at their FOMC meeting held on 1st May. Market nervousness prior to the meeting brought back some higher volatility. The USD modestly weakened, while gold ended the week testing $2.3K level. The US Treasury yields dropped after the FOMC meeting trading session and especially weaker than expected US jobs for April, reaching 4.5%. Weaker jobs data supported positive sentiment for the US equities, where S&P 500 was brought back to the level of 5.120. The crypto market had another highly volatile week, but still manages to end it with a little change from the week before. Bitcoin slipped to the $57K support, but dip buyers managed to return the price above the $63K during the weekend. The major event during the previous week was the FOMC Meeting, held on 1st May. The Fed's rate decision and a view on current economic developments was widely expected by the market, considering inflation in the US, which is picking up slowly. This was acknowledged by the Fed, as well as a still strong labour market. Still, they noticed that the economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in Q1. The Fed continues to hold on to their 2.0% inflation target, in which sense, the first rate cut might be, and most probably, will be postponed. At this moment, no one could provide information with high certainty whether there will be one rate cut during this year, but the markets are currently estimating September with a 54% probability, while the majority of market participants switched their view on December this year. While the US is delaying rate cuts, the market is expecting to see the ECB to cut interest rates at their June meeting. Economists are now discussing that such a course of action would weaken the euro which might put pressure on the growth of the Euro Area. At the same time, a small rate cut will most certainly not impact any significant credit demand, in which sense, it will not provide too much assistance to companies operating within the Euro Area. Another relevant news for the previous week was that the co-founder and ex-CEO of Binance crypto exchange was sentenced with four months in prison, after pleading guilty for money laundering at his crypto exchange. Although it was expected that he would get at least three years of prison sentence, the court took into account CZ`s deal with the U.S. government in November last year and a settlement of $4.3 billion. At the same time, experts are noting that his personal wealth, estimated at $33 billion, would not be affected by the court decision. There have been a lot of discussions during the previous period regarding the sale of investment units from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and its impact on the price of BTC. As news is reporting, Grayscale finally experienced the first total funds inflow, after quite a long time of funds outflow. As Farside Investors are reporting, there has been a total $63 million in inflows during Friday. As a reminder, Grayscale was the first BTC fund, but due to its high fees, the funds BTC holdings decreased from 600.000 down to 290.000 since the first BTC ETF was approved. Crypto market cap Market nervousness regarding Fed's next moves in light of inflation pick-up was also evident on the crypto market during the previous week. Namely, as frenzy over crypto ETF`s and BTC halving is over, the crypto market, and especially BTC, are returning to the general market sensitivity to macro developments. Right before the FOMC meeting, BTC reverted to the down side and reached levels below $57K within quite a short time. After the meeting Fed Chair Powell's speech brought back some investors into the crypto market, while weekend trading pushed the crypto market to levels above the end of the week before. Although it was extremely volatile week, still, total crypto market capitalization was increased by 1% from the end of the week before, where it has been added total $32B. Daily trading volumes were also increased to the level of $130B on a daily basis, from $104B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $655B, which represents a 40% surge from the beginning of this year. The majority of altcoins were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. During the week BTC was on a losing side, however, weekend trading brought back its market cap to the previous levels, and even increased it by 1.6%, adding total $ 20B to its total market value. On the opposite side Ether did not manage to regain previous strength, and ended the week around 1.4% lower from the week before, losing around $5.6B in value. This time major altcoins were among higher gainers. In this sense, Solana was leading the altcoin market with an increase in value of 7.3% w/w, adding total $4.5B to its market cap. DOGE was another altcoin with significant weekly performance, with an increase in value of 12.6% adding total $2.6B to its cap. This week XRP managed to add $1.17B to its value, increasing it by more than 4% w/w. Relatively solid weekly performers in relative terms had Bitcoin Gold, which increased its cap by 8.4%, Pokladot surged by 8.5%, Filecoin was up by almost 8%, while Polygon was up by 5.3%. Several coins were on a losing side, like NEO, with a decrease in value of 4%, Uniswap was down by 1.5%, while Litecoin was down by 2.5%. Developments within circulating coins relaxed a bit during the previous week. Ether decreased the number of its coins on the market by 1.6%, which is not so frequently seen. Miota had an increase in its coins in circulation by 0.6%, the same as traditionally, Filecoin. Tether increased its market cap and number of coins in circulation by 0.2% this week. Crypto futures market For another week in a row major developments on the crypto market were occurring during the weekend trading sessions, hence, futures from Friday`s trading on the CME are not fully reflecting the actual developments on the crypto spot market. In this sense, Monday trading sessions on the futures market might bring some corrections. BTC short term futures ended the week around 1.8% lower from the week before, while those maturing within a longer time frame, were last traded lower by more than 8%. Futures maturing in December this year reached the last price at $62.590, and those maturing a year later closed the week at price $67.250. ETH short term futures were last traded down by around 1% on average, while those with longer maturity were down by more than 5%. ETH futures maturing in December 2024 closed the week at $3.138, and those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at price $3.297.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: April 29 – May 4Last week in the news Latest PCE data in the US are showing persistent inflation, decreasing inventor’s expectations of a potential three rate cuts during this year. US Treasury yields reacted to change in sentiment, where the 10Y benchmark reached its weekly highest level at 4.73%. Decrease of geopolitical risks in the Middle East impact short reversal in the gold price, ending the week at $2.337. The US equities were traded in a mixed manner, but still, the S & P 500 advanced more than 2.7% on a weekly basis. The crypto market has had a relatively volatile week, with BTC shortly slipping to levels below $63K during weekend trading. On 1st may Fed's rate decision is scheduled, which might bring back some higher volatility on the market. Inflation continues to be the main concern of investors in the US. As per Fed`s favourite inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index was increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis in March, slightly higher from the market expectations of 2.7%. On the other hand, posted data show that the personal saving rate dropped 0.4pp in March, which was a decrease of 2 % compared to last year. Investors decreased their expectations of potential three rate cuts to only two during the course of this year. As per CME Group FedWatch gauge, the market is currently estimating two rate cuts with a 44% probability rate. At the same time, consumers are not giving up on spending. As per latest data, Personal spending is up by 0.8% in March on a monthly basis, while dip in savings shows most probably that consumers are currently digging into their savings in order to make purchases. A new package of laws has been adopted in the European Parliament during the previous week with the aim to further strengthen the regulation related to anti money laundering. The new laws are also addressing large cash payments and crypto companies, among others. By new laws, “obliged entities”, including crypto firms, will be obliged to report suspicious activities, as they are defined by laws. News is reporting that ARK Invest sold the last of its BITO holdings of around $6.7 million on Thursday. The shares in the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF were bought during the end of last year in anticipation of the approval of the first spot BTC ETF on the market. Just to note that the fund founded its own ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) with the aim to invest in spot BTC. A Pennsylvania based Republic First Bank is the first bank in the US in 2024 to be seized by regulators. Namely, all business news are reporting that this bank has been seized by Philadelphia authorities on Friday. During the previous period, the Bank was looking for a potential buyer, where Fulton Bank had reached an agreement with FDIC to take over a total 32 branches of the Republic First Bank. The shares of the troubled bank were traded down by 60% on Friday. As news is reporting the bank had about $6 billion in total assets and $4 billion in total deposits as of the end of January this year. Crypto market cap As frenzy over Bitcoin halving ended during the previous week, the crypto market is slowly returning to its “old” trading mode. Speculative positions have been closed, which pushed modestly the price of BTC toward the downside during the whole previous week. Selling orders were prevailing, supporting price volatility. Although it might sound like a paradox, analysts are still in agreement that this is positive for BTC, as it needs to finish one cycle in order to start a new one. As of the weekend, total crypto market capitalization dropped by 2% compared to the week before, where around $57B was wiped out from the market. This decrease was led by BTC as the coin lost $ 41B in value during the week. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, where during the previous week they were moving around $104B, which is a drop from $128B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $623B, which represents a 38% surge from the beginning of this year. Weekend trading session brought another losing session for BTC. It`s value dropped by 3.2% on a weekly basis, dragging market cap down by $41B. On the opposite side, ETH managed to add to its value during the week, increasing it by 1.6%, adding $6.2B to its market cap. Altcoins were also traded in a mixed manner during the week. There was a sort of equal number of both gaining and losing coins on a weekly basis. Among gainers was Tron, which increased its cap by 8.5% during the week. Binance Coin managed to hold its value relatively steady, increasing it by modest 1.5%. Algorand managed to gain 3.25% during the week. On the opposite side some of the major altcoins were traded down during the week. Solana lost 8.4% in value, losing $5.6B in market cap. DOGE was traded down by more than 10%, decreasing its value by $2.38B. Cardano joined the group of losing coins, with a total drop of 9.2% or $1.6B on a weekly basis. One of the highest losers in relative terms was Filecoin, with a total drop of 12%. During the previous week there has been a lot of developments when it comes to the number of circulating coins. For the first time in a while, there has been a significant increase of Ethereum`s coins in circulation by even 1.6% on a weekly basis. Litecoin is also one which should be especially mentioned, as this coin had a surge of its coins on the market by 4.2%. Filecoin added a new 0.6% of coins. On the opposite side were Monero and Binance Coin, which significantly decreased their number of coins on the market. Monero had a drop of 5.1%, while BNB`s were down by 1.3% within a single week. Crypto futures market Although crypto futures were holding relatively steady during the previous week, still, the major development which occurred during the weekend, have not been priced on a Friday`s closing on the CME. In this sense, some drop in BTC`s short term futures is possible with a first trading day on Monday. BTC short term futures ended the previous week with a drop of around 0.3% on a weekly basis. At the same time, the long term ones were last traded higher by around 1.6%. Futures maturing in December this year were closed at price $68.520, while those maturing a year later were traded at $73.330. ETH futures had an increase for all maturities. The short term ones were traded higher by around 2.0%, while those maturing with a longer maturity period were traded around 3.0% higher on a weekly basis. December 2024 closed the week at price $3.337, and December 2025 was last traded at price $3.481.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Weekly Outlook - 27/04/2024Last week brought huge earnings reports for some of the big US tech companies, with mixed reactions. We saw META lose 7% during the previous week after a great earnings report, and Alphabet (GOOG) soaring 10% on Friday. Next week, we will see earnings from Amazon (Tuesday) and Apple on Thursday as well as other large cap earnings reports. Will the market be pricing in higher earnings off the back of last week's form? First, let's observe the broader markets... S&P 500 SPX looks to have created a bearish break of structure. I am anticipating a retrace into the pattern, at approximately $5,200 (around a 2% up move), at which point, the price may look to reverse to the downside. We can find confirmation for this on the RSI, where the momentum, which was holding at ~40, was broken and bulls are clearly losing power for the time being. DXY The DXY (or dollar index) is inversely correlated to the S&P 500. To put it simply: dollar goes up; stocks go down, and vice versa. In this image, you can see that the DXY has broken down from the highs and is looking to retrace. We have already seen a throwback into the consolidation pattern, and are now looking for the dollar to retrace...thereby adding confluence to the fact that stocks will see a rise in the early days of the week AAPL For AAPL, it is simple. A break below $165.67 would cause a major impulse to the downside, targetting ~$149.50. However, with current momentum, what I believe is more likely is a retrace to between $186 and $191 (an increase of nearly 10% and 13% respectively). For this to happen, a clean break of the swing high at 178.36 would need to occur. That's all for this market outlook. In conclusion, I am looking for a declining dollar and rising stocks in the early part of next week. Let me know what you think. Cheers
SP:SPX
by joshuashepherd877
MARKETS week ahead: April 22 – 27Last week in the news Higher for longer was for one more time rhetoric which influenced market sentiment during the previous week. In expectation of less rate cuts during this year, the US equities entered into the correction mode, with the S&P 500 ending the week at level of 4.967. The US Treasuries had another relatively strong week, where 10Y benchmark sustained levels above 4.6%. The price of gold remained under the influence of geopolitics, while the US Dollar also held in strength during the week. The crypto market was recovering from a strong sell-off two weeks ago, but still sustained relatively higher volatility in expectation of Bitcoin halving, which occurred this weekend. Bitcoin is ending the week above the $ 65K levels. The US economy continues to show its resilience to tight monetary policy. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was much higher from market estimate of 0.3%. This was another issue for markets, considering its potential impact on inflation in the coming period. Markets are currently losing positive sentiment, and adjusting positions accordingly, in expectation that three rate cuts will not occur during the course of this year. CNBC spoke with leading ECB economists during the IMF Spring Meeting in New York, held last week. The ECB President Lagarde once again noted her standing from the last ECB meeting, that it could be expected first rate cut in June within the European Zone, in case that inflation continues to move with a clear down trend. However, in case of some extreme shocks, the rates might stay on hold. She noted this disclaimer considering recent negative developments in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices. Also, other twelve members of the Council Board were in agreement with such a course of action in June, and also aligned with potential threats coming from geopolitical issues. Quite a positive sentiment came last week from CEO of VanEck fund, Jan van Eck. He noted in his opinion that the world economy is starting its new growth phase, putting special emphasis on China, and suggested that investors should eye commodities now. At the same time, it should be noted that his funds have large exposures toward commodities, including gold and copper. The long awaited Bitcoin halving started early Saturday, where the 840.000th block was added to the blockchain. Fees already soared while at the same time a new Bitcoin-based system was launched. The name of the new system is Runes. Although BTC`s price was relatively volatile during the week, still the BTC held strongly around the level of $65K. Still, whales took the chance to buy the BTC dip at $60K. News are reporting that a total of $1.2B worth of BTC was bought during this time. Crypto market cap Bitcoin halving took place. Markets were waiting with anticipation for this event, considering that no one was really sure where the price might go prior to halving. On one side were analysts who were noting a possibility that the price might significantly drop, while on the other side were the ones noting that the price will hold and move further to the upside in the coming period. Now that the event passed, we know that the price managed to hold around $ 65K, although there had been some prior higher volatility. BTC whales took the opportunity to buy the dip and increase their positions in this coin. Two weeks ago, there was a huge sell off on the crypto market, however, the situation relatively stabilized during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by modest 1% on a weekly level, losing a total $25B. Daily trading volumes decreased to the level of $128B on a daily basis, from $131B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $680B, which represents a 42% surge from the beginning of this year. Although the majority of altcoins were leading the market to the upside, BTC and ETH are the ones which lost in value on a weekly basis. BTC dropped by a modest 2.3%, where the coin lost around $30B in the market cap. ETH was down by 1.2%, where around $4.8B was a decrease in its market capitalisation. Bitcoin Gold also lost some of its value during the week, dropping its market cap by 3%. There were several altcoins, who ended the week in red, like Monero, Binance Coin and Tron, but the drop was less than 1% in value. Majority of altcoins were leading the market to the upside. In this sense, Cardano increased its market cap by $1.1B, which is an increase of 6.5% on a weekly basis. Polkadot should be especially mentioned as the coin added more than $ 3B to the total crypto market cap, increasing its own by 4.2%. Solana also added $ 3B which is an increase of 4.7% on a weekly level for this coin. Among excellent weekly performers in relative terms were Filecoin and Maker, where both managed to increase market cap by more than 11%. Interestingly, THETA was one of coins who managed to add 10.5% to its market value. Other altcoins were mostly traded higher between 2% and 8% on a weekly level. Relatively stronger developments continue when coins in circulation are in question. During the previous week Filecoin added 0.4% of new coins on the market, while Miota`s number of coins were higher by 0.6%. Certainly, this week's winner was Monero, with an increase in circulating coins by 5.4%. On the opposite side was Litecoin, who, this time, decreased its coins on the market by even 4%. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, there were some major developments on the crypto futures market during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower for all maturities. It should be taken into account that CME was closed during the weekend, in which sense, developments during the weekend are still not fully priced in futures. In this sense, some increase in futures prices are possible in Monday trading sessions. BTC short term futures were last traded by some 5% lower from the end of the week before, while the longer term ones were down by less than 10%. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $67.450, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $72.160. This was a significant drop, considering that two weeks ago these futures were traded at $80.095 for the first time in history. ETH short term futures were also down by some 4% on average, while the major drop was with the longer term ones, which closed the week down by some 12.8% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year reached the price at $3.246, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $3.377.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: April 14 – 20Last week in the news Inflation fears are for one more time those to shape investors confidence. Posted US inflation data during the previous week, impacted negative sentiment on the market, and made US Treasury yields move to the higher grounds, while US equities were pushed to the downside. For one more week in a row geopolitical risks were pushing the price of gold to new ATH. Uncertainty over the forthcoming Bitcoin halving impacts higher volatility on the crypto market. However, regardless of current higher volatility, BTC futures maturing in December 2025 reached the level of $80K for the first time in history. The pivotal point on financial markets was a release of the US inflation data for March. As posted, the inflation in March was 0.4% for the month, which brought it to the level of 3.5% on a yearly basis. The data was higher from the market forecast of 3.4%. In line with significantly increased non-farm payrolls posted two weeks ago, data scared markets that the inflation could further accelerate which would impact Fed's decision not to cut rates during this year, or, most probably, that there will be less than three cuts during the year. The FOMC meeting Minutes were released during the week, where it has been revealed that Fed officials were looking for more convincing data in order to trigger rate cuts. Economists and analysts are currently quite divided on this topic, considering that this question is not at all easy to answer. Larry Fink, CEO of largest investment fund BlackRock, commented on potential Fed`s move, noting a possibility that there will be two rate cuts this year, however, the estimate of 2% targeted inflation will be missed. He sees high probability that the Fed will cut rates, even as inflation remains elevated. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase noted several challenges for the world and the US economy, noting geopolitical risks and “persistent inflation pressures” but still perceives many economic indicators as favorable. While US markets are concerned over the potential for rate cuts, investors in European markets are heating up sentiment for the first rate cut by the ECB in June this year. The ECB held a policy meeting during the previous week, where rates were left unchanged, as widely expected. However, comments from ECB officials heated the market expectation that the first rate cut by the ECB might occur in June this year, in case that inflation continues its down-track. The pressure on the chip industry continues. As news is reporting, Chinese officials issued a directive, where it is requested by Chinese telecom systems not to use any foreign chips within their products. All processors made by foreign companies should be replaced by the year 2027 in China. This news was first posted by the Wall Street Journal, which specifically mentioned companies AMD and Intel, which will be hit by such a decision by Chinese authorities. Share prices of these two companies significantly dropped after the news was published. Crypto market cap Bitcoin halving is coming during the end of the week ahead. However, this represents only one side of the current market nervousness. Investors are highly concerned regarding the potential for Fed's rate cut, as well as, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The combination of these factors impacted a significant drop in the value of the crypto coins, but also other financial markets were affected, like US equities and US Treasuries. It could be expected that the same combination of factors will continue to impact markets for some time in the short future period. However, what is optimistic about the crypto market is that BTC futures maturing in December 2025 for the first time in history reached the level of $80K. This is another significant milestone for BTC, as it shows current market sentiment that BTC can only grow in value in the future. Certainly, whether this will be the case is about to be seen. For the moment, total crypto market capitalization decreased by 5%, where $121B was wiped out from the market. This time a significant portion of altcoins lost in value, where major coins were participating with roughly 40% in this drop. Usually majors are the ones that are leading the market to one side, however, this time was different. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased from the week before, reaching even $250B on a daily basis, from $131B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $705B, which represents a 43% surge from the beginning of this year. BTC and ETH had another volatile week, however, the majority of altcoins were the ones that lost the most during the week. Regardless of the fact that BTC for one more time tested levels above $70K, the coin is ending the week by more than 2% lower from the week before, where total weekly loss in value was $28,2B. ETH`s market cap dropped by $18B on a weekly basis, which is around 4.5%. The list of altcoins who lost in value above $ 1B is significant for the first time in many weeks. XRP, Bitcoin Cash and Cardano all lost above $ 4B in value. However, one of the most significant drops among altcoins was with Solana. This coin lost almost $ 15B in value during the week, dropping it by around 19%. Significant losers in a relative terms were Uniswap, with a drop of more than 35% on a weekly level, OMG Network was also down by 30%, Filecoin lost almost 30%, while Maker was down by 26% within a single week. Other altcoins also lost between 10% and 20% in value. The only coin that gained was Tether, however, through an increase of its coins in circulation by 0.5%. Although it was a red week for the majority of altcoins, still, for the majority of circulating coins it was a green week. Filecoin, although significantly lost in value, still managed to add 0.9% new coins to the market. Polkadot added 0.3% more circulating coins, while Polygon`s total coins were higher by 0.2%. Majority of other altcoins added around 0.1% of new coins during the week. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market had bad news and also good news during the previous week. The volatility on the spot market continued for the third week in a row, and so were the crypto short term futures. In this sense BTC short term futures were traded down around 0.9%, while ETH`s ended the week 3% lower from the end of the week before. Still, regardless of the short drop in short term futures, the major development occurred with longer term ones, which for both BTC and ETH ended the week higher from the week before. BTC long term futures ended the week by 2.8% higher from the week before, but the most important news is that for the first time in history, futures maturing in December 2025 reached the price above $80K. This is the most significant development, as it shows that investors still believe that BTC will rise in value during the course of time. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $75.090, which is also a new weekly high for this maturity. ETH long term futures also ended the week with a positive sentiment. They were traded around 5.8% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $3.720 and those maturing a year later closed the week at $3.877.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: April 8 – 13Last week in the news Much higher than expected Non-farm Payrolls in March in the US was a major event for the week on financial markets. Equity markets were still holding strong, despite the first major drop since the beginning of this year, while US Treasures reacted with higher yields. Gold reacted to new geopolitical tensions, which pushed the price of oil to higher grounds. The USD had increased volatility, but still managed to hold around 1.08 to euro, while the crypto market continued with higher price fluctuations. Bitcoin shortly tested $ 65K during the week, however, ending it above $68K. The major event for markets during the previous week was a release of the US jobs data. The number of 303K new jobs in March was far above the expected 200K. The unemployment rate was standing at 3.8% in March, which was in line with market expectation. The market reacted strongly to the jobs data. Although this is positive for the US economy, showing its resilience to monetary measures, it still represents a fear that the Fed might hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time than previously expected. Namely, the market perceives that the stronger economy might drive inflation to higher grounds, in which sense, the reaction of the Fed might be to hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time, putting in question potential rate cuts during the course of this year. Aside from it, the Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman noted on Friday the possibility for rates to be lifted to the higher grounds, in case that inflation remains persistent. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark reacted by ending the week at the level of 4,4% from 4.2% where they were previously traded. Aside from potential negative impact on inflation from the heated jobs market, aspects of oil prices are also considered by markets. New geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, put pressures on oil futures and the price of oil on the market. Brent crude reached the highest weekly price of $90,65 per barrel. The US Brent crude was up by 18% during the course of this year, while the US crude added around 21%. The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is traveling to China in order to strengthen the relationships with this country which will be beneficial for both countries, as per her notes. She also noted that the main target of her visit is to discuss issues of “overcapacity and national security-related economic actions”. The issuer of XRP token, a blockchain company Ripple announced that it will launch a US dollar stablecoin. Current estimate of the US stablecoin market is $150 billion. The company noted that the coin will be 100% backed by the US dollar, through cash, USD deposits and US government bonds, which the company will hold as a reserve for the back of their stablecoin. It is also noted that information on their reserves will be publicly available on a monthly basis. The market of the US stablecoin is currently split between USDT, whose issuer is Tether, and USDC issued by Circle. PayPal also launched its own stable coins, the PayPal USD, which is issued by Paxos. Crypto market cap Quite a volatile week is behind the crypto market. Since the middle of the week, Bitcoin has been driven to the downside, where the coin reached $65K. The market had a general reaction to the news that the US jobs market might be a game-changer when it comes to expected Fed rate cuts during the course of this year. Namely, at the latest FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell spoke about potential three rate cuts till the end of this year. However, as released data are showing that the jobs market is heating up, this might bring a surge on the demand side and as a consequence, increased inflation. Following the theory of market efficiency, markets had to make an adjustment to their forecast with expectations that the interest rates might stay higher for a much longer period of time. The reaction was visible on equity, US Treasury markets, as well as the crypto market. During the previous week total crypto market capitalization lost $97B in value, which was a drop of 4% on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes remained elevated, moving around $131B on a daily basis, same as the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $ 826B, which represents a 50% surge from the beginning of this year. Bitcoin and Ether were leading the market drop, however, the majority of other coins gave their contribution. On a weekly level, BTC lost around $ 40B in value, decreasing it by 2.9%. Ether followed general market sentiment, with a drop in value of more than $23B or 5.5%. Another coin with significant drop in value was Solana, who lost almost $8.5B, which represents a decrease of almost 10% within a single week. Binance Coin decreased its market cap by $3.2B or 3.5%, while DOGE was down by $2.3B or almost 8% on a weekly basis. XRP should also be mentioned, as it followed the negative market reaction with a drop in value of $ 2B or almost 6%. Some of coins which lost significantly in relative terms were Miota and OMG Network, who both lost more than 13% in value. Uniswap and Algorand both lost more than 12% during the week, while Filecoin and Cardano were down by 10%. There were only a few coins who managed to end the week in a positive territory, where the absolute leader was Bitcoin Cash, with an increase in market cap of incredible 17%. Maker hold the grounds, with an weekly increase in value of 1.1%. Coins in circulation continue with increased activity. Tether should be especially mentioned, as it continuously surging its circulating coins, adding 2.2% during the previous week. Miota added 0.6% of new coins to the market, same as Filecoin, while Algorand added 0.4% of new coins this week. XRP and Polkadot increased their coins on the market by 0.2% during the previous week, while the majority of other coins increased by less than 0.1%. Crypto futures market Previous week markets had a general reaction to stronger than expected US jobs data, where the crypto futures market reacted in a same manner. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower from the week before. BTC short term futures were traded around 5% lower, while longer term futures dropped by modest 0.5%, still trying to hold the previous week`s levels. At the same time ETH short term futures were traded down around 8% on a weekly basis, while longer term ones were down by around 5%. Regardless of a drop in prices of short term futures, BTC longer term ones managed to hold relatively stable. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price of $73.220, while those maturing in December next year closed the week at price $77.865. This shows that the market still believes that BTC will hold higher levels in the future period. Still, not the same sentiment holds for ETH futures. This comes as the market priced longer term futures at lower levels from the week before. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $3.519, while those maturing a year later were closed at $3.664. On a positive side is that the price of ETH manages to hold levels above the $3K for all maturities.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: April 1 – 7Last week in the news Positive market sentiment continued ahead of the holiday season on western markets. The S&P 500 was closed at level of 5.254, which was the new highest level reached in the history of the index. Although USD gained in value, the price of Gold also headed to the higher grounds, ending the week at 2.233, a new ATH. The US Treasuries remained relatively stable during the week. Bitcoin reached for one more time levels above $70K, while the crypto market spent another week trading within a positive territory. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a Fed's favorite inflation gauge, rose 0.3% in February, bringing it to a total increase of 2.8% on a yearly basis. The news was released on a Good Friday, a holiday in Western countries, so the market will most probably continue after-the-holiday season pricing the positive inflation developments. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York gathering, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that there is no rush for cutting interest rates. He saw a rationale in keeping interest rates at current levels for longer to help inflation on its “sustainable trajectory toward 2%”. CoinDesk is reporting that the market for tokenized U.S. Treasury debt is in its “booming” phase. Analysts from the crypto firm 21.co noted in a report that the total value of tokenized Treasury notes reached levels of above $1 billion. Tokenization has been done through several public blockchains like Ethereum, Polygon, Avalanche, Stellar and few others. These tokens can be traded on the blockchain. The increase in trading tokenized Treasuries has particularly boomed after BlackRock announced its tokenized fund BUIDL on Ethereum network. As reported, the BlackRock`s funds BUIDL had a strong inflow during the first week on the market, collecting $245 million in deposits, out of which Ondo Finance alone transferred $95 million. The London Stock Exchange will allow listings of the exchange traded notes (ETNs) for bitcoin and ether coins. Trading of these assets will start on May 28th this year and will be available to institutional investors only. All listings on the LSE will be a subject of the approval of the Financial Conduct Authority. The FCA noted that requests from Recognized Investment Exchanges will not be turned down. A CEO of the BlackRock, the largest US asset manager, Larry Fink, released his annual investor letter, where he noted a concern regarding “providing for retirement”. He is of the opinion that Social Security and other retirement assets need to be rethought from the perspective of their long-term inclusion into capital markets. He also commented on overspending by the US Government, which is creating increasing debt. His proposal for the solution of the issue is to create a public-private partnership in order to finance infrastructure projects. Crypto market cap It was another positive week on the crypto market. Although the majority of the market is positioning for the expected Fed rate cuts during the course of this year, the crypto community turned their discussion to the topic of forthcoming Bitcoin halving. There is a question of its impact on the price of Bitcoin, considering that rewards for bitcoin miners will be halved. On a positive side is that this halving will increase the supply of new bitcoins until the maximum of 21 million BTC`s is finally reached. Analysts are arguing that more supply of BTC will increase its transactions and its further adoption by people and institutions. With increasing demand and limited supply, the price of BTC could be expected to increase. However, this is only an opinion of several analysts, and whether this scenario will actually occur on the market is up to be seen during April. During the previous week total crypto market capitalization was increased by 6%, adding total $141B to the market. The market cap is holding well above $2.5 trillion. Daily trading volumes continue to be at higher levels, dropping a bit as of the end of the week, due to the Holiday on the Western markets, but still with high $131B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $923B, which represents a 56% surge from the beginning of this year. Majority of coins gained during the previous week. Bitcoin was the one which led the market to the upside, with a total inflow of $87B, which increased its market cap by 6.8%. Ether also had a positive week, by adding $15.2B to its value, increasing it by 3.7%. Another coin with very good weekly performance was Solana, which added almost $ 10B to its value, surging by 12.7% within a week. Binance Coin continues to add to its value, increasing it by $6.8B or 8.1%. This week DOGE was in the spotlight of the market, with a surge in value of $3.5B or 14.3%. Bitcoin Cash performed well during the week, ending it with an increase in value of $2.45B or more than 26%. Within the higher gainers, it should be mentioned Litecoin, which added $1.13B to the market cap increasing it by 17.5%. Other weekly gainers with excellent performance in relative terms were Maker, who increased its value by almost 20%, Solana was up by 12.7%, Miota was up by 11%, while NEO surged by 9.6%. There were only a few losing coins, where Monero lost 4.37% of its value on a weekly basis. As for coins in circulation, increased activity continues. Filecoin added 0.6% of new coins to the market, Polkadot`s coins in circulation were higher by 0.2%, while Stellar managed to add 0.3% to its circulating coins. Tether should be especially mentioned, as it managed to continuously add new coins to the market, where last week this number was 0.5% higher from the week before. Crypto futures market The crypto futures reflected the positive market sentiment from the spot market during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded higher from the previous week, for all maturities. BTC short term futures ended the week around 11% higher from the end of the week before, while the long term ones were up by almost 5%. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at $73.435, while those maturing in December next year were closed at price $78.255. The highest value reached for this maturity was $79.235, three weeks ago, with currently high probability that these levels can be reached again in a short future period. ETH futures were traded around 7% higher from the week before, however, long term ones were up by relatively modest 1.1% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year ended the trading week at level $3.700, while those maturing a year later were last traded at price $3.856.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: March 18 – 24Last week in the news Previous week brought back inflation fears on financial markets. The US equities and tech companies ended the week under pressure considering investors fears that the Fed might take a bit more time until the first rate cut, due to persistent inflation. US Treasuries also reacted on the same issue, ending the week one more time higher by 22 basis points. Price of gold and USD remained relatively stable during the week, however, with some volatility. Bitcoin reached its new all time highest levels, but still, ending the week a bit lower, above the $65K. Inflation continues to be the number one concern for investors on financial markets. During several prior months, it has been on a clear down path, however, the latest data are showing that the Fed`s targeted 2% is going to be a bit harder to achieve. The latest figures for February are showing that the inflation in the US reached 3.2% on a yearly level, which was modestly above market estimate of 3.1%. At the same time, core inflation was standing at 3.8%, also higher from market estimate of 3.7%. Also, it should be considered that the PPI index was higher by 0.6% for a month, which points to a potential for further growth in inflation figures in the coming period. February inflation data were a bit concerning for investors, considering that it might mean that the Fed might take a bit longer time for the first rate cut during the course of this year. What Fed`s opinion on the latest inflation data will be better known during the week ahead, when the FOMC meeting is scheduled, as well as FOMC economic projections. The Bitcoin frenzy continued during the previous week, with BTC reaching its new all time highest level at $73.4K. Although it finished the week around $66K, the MicroStrategy founder, Michael Saylor, announced a new debt issuance in order to collect additional $525 million with the aim of purchasing additional BTCs. It is currently estimated that MicroStrategy holds 205.000 BTC. For the last several years, Bitcoin was named by the crypto enthusiasts as a digital gold. The latest analysis is showing that investors are currently almost equally investing in both gold and BTC, but are not transferring funds from one asset to another. As per research report conducted by JPMorgan, the conclusion is that there are no funds flows from BTC funds to gold, or vice versa, but it is rather that investors are just equally buying both gold and BTC. Among buyers are mainly speculative institutional investors and partially retail investors. The report concludes following: “We believe the debt-funded bitcoin purchases by MicroStrategy add leverage and froth to the current crypto rally and raise the risk of more severe deleveraging in a potential downturn in the future”. CoinDesk is reporting that El Salvador`s President Bukele posted on the X platform that this country stored $400 million worth of Bitcoin into a cold wallet “in a physical vault within our national territory”. The post also included the picture of a wallet holding 5.689,68 BTC. Crypto market cap At the beginning of the week, the crypto market had its bull run continued, when the highest market capitalization reached $2.7 trillion. However, the second part of the week brought surprising US inflation data, as well as sort of market exhaustion, considering forthcoming BTC split and disappointed inflation data in the US, so the market entered into correction, ending the week with a total market cap of $2.4 trillion. News are reporting that over $800 million was wiped out from the futures market in forced liquidation. Analysts involved in the matter noted that historically highest levels were the trigger for liquidations in profit taking moves, and that some further moves to the downside are possible in the coming days. Whether this will be the case the market will decide, however, as there are sellers, there are also buyers, like for example MicroStrategy, who prepared a new round of debt securities in order to make new BTC purchases. Regardless of a new all time highest levels, total crypto market capitalization is ending the week around 2% lower from the week before, decreasing it by $62B. Daily trading volumes remained at relatively higher levels, moving around $252B on a daily basis. At Friday`s trading session, daily trading volumes reached the levels of around $400B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $819B, which represents a 50% surge from the beginning of this year. Although the majority of coins finished the week in red, there were several altcoins which continued to perform in a positive manner. Bitcoin had a positive start of the week, however, it ended it with a cap decrease of almost 2%, where $26.7B was wiped from its capitalization. ETH had a higher drop of $38B in value, which was a decrease of 8.1% on a weekly level. Several other coins with a significant weekly drop in value were Dogecoin, with a drop of $3.7B in value or 15.4%, Cardano lost $2.3B, or 9% in value, Polkadot decreased its cap by $1.1B or almost 8%, while Uniswap lost $1.25B or 14.6% in value. On the opposite side were several coins with quite good performance. Solana completely outperformed the crypto market, with a surge in value of 25% within a single week, adding $16.3B to its market cap. Binance Coin should also be mentioned with an increase of $14.5B in value or almost 20%. Maker managed to gain during the week 9.3% in value, which is an additional increase from 15.9% two weeks ago. When it comes to coins in circulation, the increased activity still holds. Filecoin added an additional 0.5% of new coins on the market, while Cardano, Solana, Stellar and Polkadot added 0.2% of new coins each. It should be mentioned that Tether still continues to strongly add new coins on the market, increasing the number by 1.7% during the previous week. Crypto futures market Despite a significant drop in the value of BTC on the spot market, the BTC futures market managed to catch only a small drop on a weekly basis, related to short term futures. In this sense, futures maturing in March and April this year ended the week by 1.19% lower from the end of the previous week, while the longer term ones were traded higher from the week before. BTC futures maturing in December this year were last traded at level of $74.880 or 1.47% lower on a weekly basis, while those maturing in December 2025 were traded at $79.235 or 2.19% higher from the week before. At the same time, ETH futures experienced a drop on a weekly basis for all maturities. ETH short term futures were traded lower by more than 7.5%, while the longer term ones were down by more than 4%. ETH futures maturing in December this year are still holding modestly above $4K level, but were down by 3.7% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December next year closed the week at price $4.183 or 4.03% lower from the week before.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: March 11 – 16Last week in the news Another week since the beginning of this year with markets reaching new all time highest values. The US equity markets continue to be driven by tech companies and expectations of the first Fed's rate cut. During the previous week Bitcoin also breached its highest level from November 2021, reaching shortly the level of $70K. Gold continues to reflect expectations on the future rate cuts and hence, weakening of the USD, reaching also an ATH at $2.185. Even US Treasury prices are rising, bringing yields to the lower grounds. The only asset which lost some of its value was the US dollar. There have been several important topics during the previous week which drove the markets to the higher grounds, but all of them correlate to only one point – rate cuts are expected during the course of this year. Fed Chair Powell testimony before the Senate Banking Committee during the previous week revealed Powell`s and Fed`s expectations that the rate cuts are likely to occur at “some point” during this year. This was in line with market expectations but also Fed`s forecasts. The second weekly topic was related to the release of jobs data in the US, which showed a modestly increased unemployment rate from 3.7% up to 3.9% in February. Since Fed's decisions are data driven, it was a clear sign for the markets that rate cuts are coming. Current odds, of around 80%, show expectations that the first rate cut might occur in June. As markets are in a hype mood over AI and BTC ETF, economists are pointing to emerging evidence on a potential new wave of inflation. January inflation in the US of 3.1% y/y came above market expectations. A well known economist, Nouriel Roubini stressed once again a potential for stagflation, especially after elections in the US, as of the end of this year. Stagflation represents the state of an economy dominated by high inflation and low economic output. JPMorgan analysts have also recently pointed to a higher potential for stagflation in the coming period, comparing it with the one experienced during the 1970s. Fed Chair Powell testimony during the previous week brought to the light another interesting information for the crypto community. Namely, he answered a question related to potential introduction of the central bank digital currency in the US, where he clearly stated that the Fed is not going to recommend any digital dollar in the near future, and that the Fed does not have interest for any kind of system which would provide a view in user`s data to officials. News is reporting that BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, has filed SEC company's plans to make purchases of bitcoin exchange traded products for its Global Allocation Fund. The ETPs also include its own exchange traded fund, IBIT. Crypto market cap Although Bitcoin accomplished another milestone for this year with a new all time highest level, the total crypto market capitalization is still on the way to this target. The highest market capitalization reached $3 trillion in November 2021, while current level of capitalisation stands at $2.5 trillion. Investors' interest for placement of funds into riskier assets was certainly supported by the approval of the first BTC ETF, but also by expectations of Fed's first rate cut during the course of this year. Developments in the macro segment during the previous week, in terms of Fed Chair Powell testimony in which he noted a “at some point” move toward the decrease of interest rates, as well as increase in unemployment rate in the US in February, increased investors confidence over the future course of the US economy. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 11% on a weekly level, with total inflow of $255B. Daily trading volumes remained elevated, reaching their highest weekly level at $495B on Wednesday`s trading session. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $881B which represents a 54% surge from the beginning of this year. There have been two milestones accomplished on the crypto market during the previous week, related to major coins. First Bitcoin reached its all time highest level, by reaching the level of $70K, while the second milestone is related to ETH, which managed to surge till the level of $4K. When it comes to performance in a relative terms, ETH outperformed BTC during the week, by increasing its market cap by 14.5%, while BTC was up by 10.6%. However, in nominal terms, BTC added $129B to its total value, while ETH`s surge in cap was around $60B. Majority of other altcoins also had excellent performing week. DOGE gained $4.5B in value, increasing it by 23%. Solana is still gaining investors attention, with an increase of $8.5B in value or almost 15% on a weekly basis. Binance Coin should also be mentioned as an excellent weekly performer with a surge in value of more than 19%, adding around $11.7B to its cap. In nominal terms Theta gained $ 1B, however, it represented almost 47% increase in its market capitalization. Filecoin managed to add almost 30% to its value during the week. There have been only a few losing coins, few of which were Tron with a modest drop in value of 3.2%, while LINK was down by 5.7%. Interestingly, XRP also managed to decrease its value by 0.96% w/w. Increased activity with coins in circulation continues. During the previous week Filecoin gained 0.7% of new coins on the market, while Miota`s increase in coins was 0.6% on a weekly basis. Tether continues with a strong increase of the circulating coins, adding 2.4% during the previous week (1.3% a week before). Interestingly, Polkadot decreased its circulating coins by -1.9% on a weekly basis, after it had an increase of 2.3% two weeks ago. Crypto futures market There was another week in a row with significant moves on the crypto futures market for both BTC and ETH futures. In line with the BTC`s reach of new all-time highest value, the short term futures followed this path, finishing the week around the $70K level, which was an increase of around 8.7% on a weekly level. Longer term BTC futures surged between 9% and 14.6%. BTC futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $76K, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $77.535 on the CME. This week ETH futures gained more in relative terms from BTC futures. ETH short term futures were traded around 14% higher from the week before, while the longer term ones were traded above 15% higher for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $4.164, and those maturing in December next year, ended the week at $4.363.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: March 4 – 9Last week in the news There have been a lot of developments on financial markets during the previous week. Positive sentiment is still holding among investors. Previous week was the one which marked a higher level for Bitcoin and the crypto market, crossing the $2 trillion market cap. At the same time, easing inflation in the US has pushed yields lower, in expectations of the first Fed's rate cut in this cycle. The same sentiment pushed the S & P 500 to new all time high levels, reaching 5.137 as of the end of the week. The USD lost some of its value, supporting the price of Gold to push its price toward the almost new all time high at 2.082. The US equity market moved to higher grounds after the latest published economic figures showed that the inflation is on the decreasing track. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index reached 2.4% in January, which was fully in line with the market expectations. At the same time, the core PCE Price Index was standing at a level of 2.8% on a yearly basis, also in line with the market forecast. The latest figures are showing that the inflation in the US continues to slow down, which supported market optimism that the Fed might cut interest rates during the second half of this year. While markets are concentrated on a potential positive future earnings, some economists are arguing that the US debt increase is accelerating at the fastest pace from the previous period. As estimated, it is increasing around $1 trillion every 100 days. Last year Moody's Investors Service Agency decreased the rating of the US Government from stable to negative, amid concerns whether it will be able to service its debt obligations when they come due in the future period. As per currently available data, the US Government debt accounted for 124% of the US nominal GDP in December last year. As the US economy is supporting market optimism, the Euro Zone economy is struggling with missed targets in an earning season. CNBC is reporting that a half of EU companies have missed earnings expectations, which were already lowered due to the environment of high interest rates, and high energy prices. This represents one of the worst earning seasons for the EU companies since the start of the pandemic. As Sharon Bell, who holds a position as a senior European strategist at Goldman Sachs, noted in a CNBC interview, there is an increasing trend among EU companies of buying back their own shares. In this way, the companies are trying to sustain the price level for their shares. However, it has been noted that sectors like technology and utilities have outperformed forecasts with their quarterly results. News is reporting that the cash outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued during the previous period, with a spike on Thursday last week. Namely, as reported, the outflow of funds from the fund reached $600 million on Thursday only. The analysts involved in the matter are assuming that this sale was related to the court approval of Genesis to sell 35 million of GBTC shares. On the other hand, inflows into BTC exchange traded funds continue to increase, with BlackRock leading the market with an asset under management exceeding $10 billion. Crypto market cap What a week on the crypto market! This could be the short summary of the developments on the crypto market during the previous week. Total market capitalization reached levels above $2 trillion, while the majority of coins managed to gain somewhere between 15% and 50%. Several of them gained even above this percentage within a single week. This could be treated as a sort of postponed effect after the relatively calm market on the news that the first BTC ETF has been approved. However, it should be noted that the majority of investors were reluctant to start investing into riskier assets, considering unclear macroeconomic indicators and the question whether inflation is on the path toward the 2% target, or maybe not. This question was relevant in terms of whether the Fed will cut interest rates or maybe it will be postponed for the end of this year. Still, relatively solid inflation data, which is on a clearly down path supported the investors’ confidence during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 19% within a single week, adding $360 billion into the value of the market. Although this is still not the highest market cap that the crypto market historically reached, still, it represents a significantly close level, which might be breached in the future period. Daily trading volumes remained high during the week, moving around $ 90B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $626B which represents a 38% surge from the beginning of this year. Bitcoin was again leading the market during the previous week`s surge. The coin gained 21.5% in value, adding more than $215B to its market cap. Ether was following the move of the BTC, with a slower pace, but still a high $56B in market cap which was almost 16% surge in the value. During the week, Solana had an extraordinary performance adding almost $12B to its value, increasing it by 26% on a weekly basis. Previous week XRP added $4.7B to its cap, surging by almost 16%. Bitcoin Cash was following the path of BTC, adding $3.4B to the cap, which was a surge of incredible 65% for this coin. DOGE increased its value by $7.6B or 62.5%, another excellent weekly performer. ADA was up by $5.2B in value, or 25%. The surprise of the week was certainly Theta, who reached a price of $2.13, which was an increase of 55.5% on a weekly basis. Theta is not a coin which is known for its sharp moves in price. Among coins which did not have an excellent performing week, like other altcoins, were Maker, with an increase in value of “only” 3.17% and Uniswap with an increase of 3.8%. Sharp moves with market prices imposed significant activity among coins in circulation. Here Tether should be especially mentioned, as the coin managed to add 1.3% of new coins on the market, while increasing its cap for this value. Polkadot and Polygon were among highest gainers on the market during the previous week, where Polkadot added 2.9% of new coins on the market, while Polygon`s coins increased by almost 3% during the single week. Filecoin added 0.9% of new coins, while the majority of other altcoins increased their circulating coins by 0.1%. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market developments, the previous week was an incredible one also on the crypto futures market. By following investors' optimism from the spot market, the future prices were traded at significantly higher levels. BTC futures were increased by some 20% on average for all maturities, while ETH futures were traded higher by 13% on average, also for all maturities. BTC`s short term futures ended the week around 22% higher from the week before, while futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $66.305. At the same time, it should be mentioned that futures maturing in December 2025 ended the week at $71.276, which could be treated as a new all time highest value for BTC. ETH short term futures were traded above 16% higher from the week before. At the same time, futures maturing in December this year were last traded 13.85% higher, and finished the week at price $3.601. Those futures maturing in December 2025 reached the price of $3.774.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: February 26 – March 2Last week in the news The earnings of the US tech companies were driving the S&P 500 index to new highs, reaching a level of 5.100 during the week. The question about timing of the first Fed's rate cut is still the main occupation of the investors, which is the reason why Treasury benchmark yield of 10Y reached levels above 4.3%. The price of gold and USD remained relatively flat compared to the week before, as well as Bitcoin. When it comes to the crypto market, the star of the previous week was Ether, reaching the $3K level. NVDA was the company which was most discussed in the news during the previous week. That came with a reason, considering that it managed to reach a total capitalization of above $2 trillion on Friday. The surge in its stock prices came after the fourth quarter earnings report, and revenues of $22.10 billion, above the expected $20.6 billion. With the latest results, Nvidia`s revenues are higher by 265% from the same period a year ago. Analysts continue to be optimistic about this company and its prospectus for further growth in the following years, considering significant development within the AI industry. Based on the NVDA price development, it seems that investors also share the same opinion. FOMC meeting Minutes were released on Wednesday last week. Although there has been optimism among Fed officials that the monetary measures are giving results in the real economy and fight against inflation, still, the question regarding the first potential rate cut is still left uncertain. Such a move was postponed until there is a “greater confidence” that the inflation is clearly heading toward the targeted 2%. On a positive side is their confidence that further rate hikes are most probably over. Treasury yields reacted on Minutes with a modest increase in yields, where the 10Y benchmark reached levels above 4.3%. During the week there has been a lot of attention to the Ether coin, in expectation of the forthcoming approval of the first ETH exchange traded fund, probably in May this year. As per analysts involved in the matter, the market is currently positioning for such a decision, where the price of ETH reached levels above $3K during the previous week. However, analysts are noting that there should not be expected any sort of “explosive” jump in the price of ETH, but rather a sustained one. At the same time analysts from S&P Global warned about the possibility of a concentration risk which might occur in the Ether ecosystem after the approval of the exchange traded fund. The European Union brought up a decision to set up a new Anti-Money Laundering Authority, which will be established in Frankfurt, Germany. The main goal of this new Authority would be to oversee potential AML activities within the crypto transactions in the EU. Currently, the EU AML limit is set at 10.000 euro for cash payments. Crypto market cap While one part of the market is concerned over timing of the first Fed's rate cut in the coming period, the crypto market turned their attention to potential approval of the first ETH exchange traded fund. This was one of the major topics for investors, during the previous week. The price of ETH reached levels above $3K during the previous week, as market participants are positioning for a potential positive reply from the SEC, probably in May this year. The price of ETH outperformed BTC`s weekly performance, which is relatively rare on the crypto market. While, on one side, frenzy over the first ETH ETF slowly taking place on the market, on the other side, there is an emerging question over BTC`s performance after the halving announced for April this year. Analysts are divided on this question. While, on one side there are those who note that halving will decrease supply, and within an environment of high demand, it should positively impact the price of BTC. Still, there are those who are noting that it might impact a drop in the price of BTC, considering decreasing reward for BTC mining. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 1%, during the previous week, adding total $22B of cash inflows. Total market cap is slowly nearing the level of $2 trillion, which was last time marked in April 2022. Daily trading volumes continue to be elevated, with weekly turnover of $116B on a daily basis, which is a modestly lower from the $130B traded two weeks before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $266B which represents a 16% surge from the beginning of this year. Ether was the star of the previous week, where the coin managed to add around $21B to its market cap, increasing it by 6.2% on a weekly basis. Bitcoin was on a losing track on a weekly basis, as the coin is ending the week 1.5% lower from the end of the week before, decreasing its market cap by $15B. With other altcoins it was a mixed trading week. Binance coin had a very good performance, surging by more than 6% in value, adding $3.3B to its market cap, after the announcement of the forthcoming cross-chain airdrop of gaming project Portal. At the same time, Uniswap surged by an incredible 57% on a weekly basis, adding $2.9B to its cap, which was influenced by the announcement that UNI holders will be rewarded with a distribution of protocol fees after the system upgrade. Both ZCash and Theta have excellent weekly performance, with an increase in value of 25% and 22% respectively. There are several coins which finished the week in red, like Solana, which lost 6.5% in value, LINK was also traded lower by 6.3%, while Bitcoin Gold lost some 8.3% in value, following a decrease in the value of BTC on a weekly basis. A relatively increased activity with coins in circulation continues. During the previous week Filecoin added 0.7% more coins on the market, while IOTA had a surge of 0.6%. Tether increased its value by 0.3% on a weekly basis, by increasing its circulating coins by this percentage. Polkadot`s circulating coins were up by 0.2%, while several other altcoins increased coins on the market by 0.1% w/w. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was generally following developments on the spot market, for short term maturities. In this respect, BTC short term futures were traded around 2% lower from the week before, while ETH futures were last traded higher around 6.5%. BTC longer term futures remained relatively flat compared to the week before, while on a positive side is that prices withhold relatively higher levels reached two weeks ago. BTC futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $55.495, while those maturing a year later reached the price of $59.595. In line with expectations of the approval of the first ETH ETF, Ether`s long term futures were traded around 6.3% higher for all maturities. In this respect, futures maturing in December this year closed the week at level of $3.163, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $3.343.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: February 20 – 25Last week in the news The US inflation might be more persistent than initially expected by the market, at least per latest US inflation data, however, data on retail sales brings some confidence back. The US Treasuries reacted on the latest data, bringing 10Y yields back to the levels above the 4.2%. S&P 500 ended its first corrective week since the beginning of this year, moving back to the 5K level. Gold and USD had a relatively stable week with modest volatility, while Bitcoin had another strong week, with a push of the price toward the $53K. The US inflation data were the ones that were moving the markets during the previous week. Inflation rate in January was standing at 3.1% y/y, a bit higher from anticipated 2.9%. Core inflation still remains elevated at level of 3.9%, above forecasted 3.7%. At the same time the Producers Price Index rose 0.3% for the month. These data implied reaction from the US Treasuries market, where the 10Y benchmark reached the highest weekly level at 4.33%. Posted figures pointed to the persistence of inflation which might impact Fed's decision to postpone expected rate cuts during the course of this year. Another consequence of the latest inflation data was that the mortgage rates in the US reached new highs at 7.14%. Mortgage rates fell to 6.6% during December, however, their latest increase comes on fears that inflation might be hotter than anticipated. On the other side, some relaxation came from data on retail sales, where they dropped in January much higher from the market forecast. Posted figure reached -0.8% on a monthly basis, a way below the market estimate of -0.1%. It showed that regardless of the January surprise in inflation, there is still some confidence that it might ease in February due to a drop on the demand side. One of the largest crypto exchanges, Coinbase, posted better than expected results for the fourth quarter. The transaction revenue of the exchanger was up by 64%, reaching $529.3 million, which was supported by consumer and institutional investors. Coinbase shares jumped by 8% on the results. A boost in earnings has also been supported through the bitcoin exchange traded funds as Conbase serves as a custodian for eight out of ten ETF`s. However, JPMorgan analysts are still not confident over the real earnings potential of the Coinbase exchanger, as they “see both positives and negatives' ' and lack of clarity over the business, as noted in their statement. Digital bank Revoult published its intentions to introduce a crypto currency exchange which will be suitable for “advanced traders”. Revoult currently has around 30 million customers, and is offering basic crypto services. Its new service for advanced traders will include “deeper analytical tools and lower fees than the app”. Crypto market cap Previous week was a green week on both spot and futures crypto markets. The vast majority of coins ended the week in a positive territory. The availability of investments in bitcoin through exchange traded funds, as well as latest higher than expected inflation data in the US pushed the crypto market toward the higher grounds during the previous week. Bitcoin`s market capitalization reached again levels above $1 trillion, where it last time was in March 2022. At the same time, total crypto market capitalization increased by 9%, reaching levels of $1.88 trillion. Total inflow of funds during the week was $149B. Daily trading volumes were also further increased during the week, reaching levels of around $130B on a daily basis, from $110B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $244B which represents a 15% surge from the beginning of this year. Previous week was a significant one for Bitcoin as this coin managed for one more time in history to surpass the level of $1 trillion in value. The last time this happened was in March 2022. Certainly, bitcoin historically had higher values of capitalization, but considering its struggles during the previous year, this represents a sort of come-back for this coin. Bitcoin is ending the week with a weekly gain of 9.8%. Ether was following the path of general market sentiment during the week, adding to its value more than 12% or $36B. Among significant gainers in nominal terms, was Binance Coin, who added $5.6B to its market cap, increasing it by 11.7%. ADA also had a good week, with a surge in capitalization of almost $ 2B, or 10.2%. Significant gainer this time was Tron, with an increase in cap of $1.26B or 11.6%. Among altcoins with significant weekly gains in a relative terms, were Uniswap, with a surge of 14.7%, Filecoin increased its cap by 17%, while Polygon and Algorand were up by more than 10% within a single week. Other altcoins also gained during the week. In line with the market surge, there has also been increased activity with coins in circulation. Two weeks ago Tether lost 3.1% of its coins in circulation, however, the previous week it gained back 4.7%. Solana and Filecoin increased their coins on the market by 0.8% both, while Stellar and Polkadot added 0.2% of new coins on the market. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, and increased market optimism when the crypto market is in question, there have been some significant developments occurring also on the crypto futures market. Namely, for the first time, after many months, Bitcoin futures price reached the level above $ 59K, while Ether`s price breached the $2K level, and ended the week above the $3K. Although there are prices for futures maturing in December 2025, they reflect currently positive market optimism regarding the value of these coins in the future period. BTC short term futures were last traded higher by more than 9%, in line with the spot market. The major development occurred with the longer term futures which were last traded higher around 14% on average. Futures maturing in December this year reached the last price at $55.300, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $59.425. ETH short term futures ended the week around 12% higher from the week before. Same as with BTC, significant development was with longer term futures which ended the week more than 16% higher from the end of the week before. Futures maturing in December this year reached the price of $2.976, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at price $3.146.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
2
MARKETS week ahead: February 12 – 18Last week in the news The S&P 500 continued with gains for the fifth straight week in a row, surpassing the 5.000 level. Investors continue to be optimistic regarding the performance of the US economy and expectations on the forthcoming rate cuts. This week, Bitcoin was also in a positive territory, increasing its value by 10%, and reaching shortly the $ 48K level. Treasury yields remained relatively stable during the week. Gold shortly reached $2.050, however, ended the week lower following strengthening of the US Dollar. Previous week was relatively calm when fundamentals are in question, but with ongoing positive sentiment which impacts developments on financial markets. The released figure for the US inflation in December, as published by the Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics, reached 0.2%, lower from previously reported 0.3%. This represents another sign that inflation is clearly on the path of its return toward the 2% target in the coming period, however, Treasury yields did not react much to this news. The 10Y Treasury benchmark continued to move above the 4%. The analysts are noting market concerns that there might be fewer rate cuts during the course of this year, as the Fed is taking the precautionary stance of not cutting too soon. On the other side, within the week ahead, the US January inflation data will be published, on which the market is more focused on. As per news reports, CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, is getting ready to address the problem of supply and demand of chips for AI. The Wall Street Journal published the information that Sam Altman would need between $5 and $7 trillion for such a project, but the information has not been officially confirmed by the OpenAI. Instead, there is only a call from Sam Altman on the social network X (ex Twitter) for more infrastructure around the AI. He noted that “building massive-scale AI infrastructure, and a resilient supply chain, is crucial to economic competitiveness”. BTC ETF`s are still gaining market attention. Although the inflows into these funds slowed down a bit in the last two weeks, the situation changed after BTC managed to break the $43K level. As per news reports, the third largest daily net inflow of funds, of around $400 million, occurred on Thursday, which increased a holding of BTC`s by exchange traded funds to 9.260 BTC. Analysts who are closely following developments on the crypto market noted that ETFs are now holding 192.255 Bitcoins, which is around 2.000 higher from holdings of MicroStrategy. Considering high stakes of few participants on the market, there is currently a discussion if there might be a high concentration of BTC`s within several entities, which might lead to potential full control over the BTC market. Markus Levin, a head of operations at California tech start-up XY Labs, commented on this topic to CoinDesk, noting that the bitcoin network is still a distributed network and that “ the concentration of coins held by these entities is not a risk to the Bitcoin Network”. Crypto market cap The market optimism since the beginning of this year continues to hold on financial markets. For several weeks investors were more oriented toward the equity markets, while the prior week brought breakthroughs on the crypto market. Bitcoin finally broke the $43K level, which was a reflection of around $400 million of new funds inflow from several exchange traded funds on this market. It seems that investors are highly optimistic regarding the state of the US economy and are currently positioning for the expected Fed's rate cuts during the course of this year, seeking for more riskier assets in expectation of higher returns. As for current state of the US economy, figures are showing further relaxation in inflation and relatively stable economic output, however, the exact timing of the rate cuts, as well as, the number of it during this year, remains still unknown considering statements of some Fed officials, that Fed is concerned regarding cutting rates too soon. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 8% during the previous week, adding $133B on a weekly basis. The majority of these funds was added through the demand for Bitcoin. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased from the week before, moving around $110B, which is a jump from $ 69B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization turned into the positive territory from the end of the previous year, currently adding $ 95B or 6% increase since the beginning of this year. During the previous week almost all coins gained in value, except a few who finished the week in the red. Bitcoin was the coin with highest demand, which increased its market cap by 9.5% or $80B on a weekly basis. BTC was followed by ETH, who managed to add $21B to its value or 7.6% during the week. Among significant gainers in nominal terms was Binance Coin, with a jump in value of almost $ 3B or 6.5%, while Solana managed again to be in the spotlight of investors, with an increase in value of $4.5B or 10.5%. In relative terms, some of the gainers above 5% in value were Bitcoin Gold, NEO and Tron, while Polygon and Uniswap gained above 7% each. Only a few coins finished the week in red, among which the biggest loser was Monero. Drop in value of almost 30% came after news that the Binance exchanger will delist this coin from its exchange, since the coin “no longer meets this standard”, as announced by the Binance. There has been some relaxed activity with coins in circulation compared to the week before. The highest change in coins on the market had Miota, who added 0.6% more coins compared to the week before, and Filecoin added 0.5% of coins. Solana and Polkadot had an increase of 0.2% of circulating coins, while Tether had a drop of 3.1% for the first time after a long period of the increasing trend. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market reflected increased investors optimism from the spot market. The crypto futures for both BTC and ETH ended the week higher from the week before for all maturities. For the first time in many months BTC long term futures crossed the $50K level, exposing the investors’ confidence about the future price of this coin. BTC short term futures ended the Friday`s trading session more than 10% higher from the week before in line with the spot market developments. Still, the major move was within longer term futures, where futures maturing in June 2025 crossed the $50K level, ending the week at price $50.530. At the same time, futures maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $52.345. These developments send a positive signal regarding the expectations on the future price developments of BTC. ETH futures were also traded higher from the end of the previous week. Short term futures were traded higher by some 8% on average, while long term ones ended the week higher by more than 5%. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at price $2.556, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $2.701.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: February 5 – 11Last week in the news Fed kept interest rates unchanged during the previous week, with Powell`s note that they have “probably '' peaked, showing Fed`s final alignment with the market. Their decision had a modest impact on financial markets during the previous week, considering that it has been widely expected. The US equity indices continued to move around ATH`s, while US Treasuries eased on Fed's decision but reacted on latest jobs data. Gold has its move toward $2.050 resistance, but returned after the USD gained in value. BTC continued to struggle to break the $43K, but still, without success for the last three weeks. The FOMC meeting was in the spotlight of the market during the previous week. As it was widely expected, Fed left rates unchanged, noting that they have “probably” peaked at this level. But, Fed Chair Powell, kept a dose of reserve regarding the forthcoming potential rate cuts. He noted that the Fed members are expecting to see that the inflation is on a clear down road toward the targeted 2%, and until they are certain in data, they will not move interest rates from current levels. At the same time, the US economy continues to show resilience to high interest rates. Published data for non-farm payrolls for January outperformed market expectations of 180K, reaching 353K. Unemployment rate was left at 3.7%, although the market was expecting to see a modest increase to 3.8%. The “battle” between BTC ETF funds continues for the third week in a row. BlackRock`s IBIT and ProShares BITO have surpassed Grayscale`s GBTC trading volumes. Current daily trading volumes range around $300 million, however, as news is reporting, volumes are slowly decreasing. The latest selling pressure on the crypto market came as a result of FTX`s sales, where it was sold over $1 billion worth of the GBTC. On the opposite side are some industry professionals who are proponents of holding real BTC, instead of buying one through ETF`s, putting in a first plan “financial ownership and sovereignty”, which was the real purpose behind the BTC. The largest Chinese real estate company, Evergrande, has been liquidated by the court order in Hong Kong during the previous week. Two years ago, the same company defaulted on its debt in the US, and filed for bankruptcy in the United States. It is still unclear how it will affect other businesses around Evergrande, but what is currently reported by the news is that a court-appointed liquidator will start selling Evergrande`s assets in order to pay its debtors. Crypto market cap During the previous week the FOMC meeting was in the spotlight. Markets were looking to hear the stance of Fed officials on the current economic outlook in the US. Although the Fed was aligned with the market and kept interest rates unchanged, still, what is almost sure is that rate cuts will not be on the table for Fed at least until May this year, as per current market anticipation. The crucial point for the Fed is to find a right moment between increasing interest rates too high and cutting them too early. Both scenarios could have negative implications on the US economy, which the Fed is trying to avoid. Based on the latest output of the US economy, it seems that Fed`s measures gave results without hurting the economy, however, the main issue for the Fed is whether the inflation will clearly return to 2% target, or it will be postponed. While equity markets are reacting quite positively to such economic developments, the crypto market is slowly entering into a calmer phase. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by modest 2% or $ 32B during the previous week, out of which almost 89% is participation of funds flow into the BTC. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease to the level of around $ 69B on a daily basis, from $85B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization decrease since the beginning of this year stands at 2%, with a total $38B lost in value of the market. The crypto market performed in a mixed manner during the previous week. The highest inflow of funds had BTC, which increased its cap by almost 3%, adding $24B to its market value. Ether also ended the week in a positive territory, with an increase in market cap by 1.7% or $4.6B. Solana had a good performance with a surge in value of almost 6.5%, adding $2.5B to its value. From other major altcoins LINK should be especially mentioned as its market cap surged by 28.7% on a weekly basis, adding total $2.3B to its cap. Cardano had a good week, with an increase in value of 7.3%, while Monero was up by 5.1% within a week. Several coins ended the week in red, like Bitcoin Gold, with a drop in value of 2.5%, OMG Network dropped by 4.3%, while Stellar was down by almost 4% on a weekly basis. Coins in circulation have been more active than usual during the previous week. Litecoin increased its coins on the market by 4.3% within a single week while LINK had an increase of 2.8%. Solana`s coins in circulation were up by 0.7%, Filecoin had an increase by 0.8%, while Polkadot, and Tether`s circulating coins surged by 0.2% on a weekly basis. Several other coins had an increase of 0.1%. Crypto futures market Optimism on the futures market was higher than the one currently holding the spot market. Short term futures for both BTC and ETH were holding in line with the spot market, and were increased by 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. The major weekly development was with long term futures. BTC long term futures were traded higher modestly below 8% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $46.090, while those maturing a year later were last traded at price $49.520. The market continues to hold a positive perception for the future price of BTC. ETH long term futures were traded around 3.5% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $2.423, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at price $2.560. Both BTC and ETH long term futures are slowly returning toward the levels from the beginning of this year, which were above $50K for BTC and $2.8K for ETH.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX