MARKETS week ahead: May 13 – 19Last week in the news
Previous week did not bring some currently significant economic news, however, the market volatility continued. Positive sentiment continues to hold for the US equity market, with S&P 500 heading toward the levels from April this year. The USD continues to modestly weaken, however, the price of gold picked up during the week, closing at $2.360. US Treasury yields were holding relatively steady, with the 10Y US benchmark ending the week at 4.5%. The crypto market continues to be traded with higher volatility, where BTC is ending the week by testing the $60K support.
There has not been currently important economic news posted during the previous week, so the market attention was on the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment for May. The index dropped significantly to the level of 67.4 in May, from 77.2 posted for April, and also well below the market estimate. At the same time, inflation expectations rose to 3.5% for a one year period. Based on these readings, economists are noting a switch in the consumer sentiment in terms of increased fears of inflation, unemployment and interest rates which are all moving in an unfavourable direction in the future period, based on the survey. Such negative expectations might impact contraction in consumer spending in a future period, with final impact on the economic output in the US. The week ahead brings inflation data, which will be closely watched by markets.
In support to the inflation fears, news is reporting that China's consumer prices rose for the third consecutive month in April. At the same time producer prices continued to decline, which was a signal for markets of improved domestic demand, especially in services. Analysts are noting that China`s central monetary authorities still have a job to do to boost the economy, so some further measures in terms of bank's reserve requirements and interest rates are probable in the future period.
The UBS analysts investigated China`s underlying sentiment for gold purchase, and its potential impact on the price of this metal. They noted that Chinese investors are perceiving any dip in prices of gold as a good buying opportunity, with positive expectation over its medium and long term price. On the opposite side, UBS analysts are noting that the central bank of China slowed down with its purchases of gold in Q1 compared to the same period of last year.
News are reporting that the first comprehensive regulatory regime for the U.S. crypto currency markets was approved by the House Rules Committee, and is set for a further vote in the House of Representatives. The act is called the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, shortly FIT21, while its aim is to set clear rules for digital asset markets in the US, but also to support US in taking the leadership position in the world innovation hub.
Crypto market cap
Some traders are noting that the crypto market is currently in its “boring” phase. Indeed, in light of the first BTC ETF followed by BTC halving, the market was driven with a high dose of adrenaline in which sense, the current phase might seem to some as “boring”. But, for others, the calmer phase represents a good trading opportunity for steady profits. Anyway, it is evident that the crypto market exhausted some of the previous extreme moves, and the period of extreme profits is over, for the moment. For some time traders are extracting their funds from the crypto market in order to move them to other assets with a potential for higher profits within a short term. Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the previous week by 5%, where a total $109B was extracted from the market cap. Daily trading volumes continue to be steady, moving around $122B on a daily basis, which is a small drop from $130B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $546B, which represents a 33% surge from the beginning of this year.
During the previous week BTC was driving the total crypto market capitalization to the downside, where the coin lost around $63B in value, decreasing it by 5% on a weekly basis. Following BTC, the majority of altcoins finished the week in red. ETH was down by 7.7%, losing around $30B in the market value. XRP was another coin with a drop of $1.8B in the market cap, or 6.2%. This week DOGE and Solana followed the general market sentiment, where DOGE lost 12.5% in value, losing almost SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B in the market cap, while Solana dropped by 2%, losing $1.3B. Some of the highest decreases in market cap experienced Maker, which was down by 8%, IOTA dropped by 7.6%, Algorand was down by 7.5%, while NEO decreased its value by more than 10%. There were only a few gainers among altcoins, like Monero, which was up by 5% for the week, and Tron, which was up by 3% w/w.
When it comes to coins in circulation, the highest weekly increase was, traditionally, Filecoin, whose number of coins on the market was up by 0.6%. Solana increased the number of its coins by 0.2%, the same as XRP. This week, Tether slowed down a bit, with an increase in circulating coins by a modest 0.1%.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week, however, they were just reflecting developments from the spot market.
BTC short term futures ended the trading week around 4% lower from the week before. However, the long term ones were increased by more than 5% as of the end of the week. In this sense, futures maturing in December 2023 were last traded at price $65.795 on the CME, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $69.380.
At the same time ETH futures were traded relatively flat for all maturities, except for the short once. In line with developments on the spot market, the short term ETH futures dropped by 7.5% on a weekly level. Futures maturing in December 2024 were traded relatively flat and finished the week at $3.167, while December 2025 ended the trading week at $3.271.
