Get started

Marketprofile

GBP/JPY SELL SETUP 250 PIPS1️⃣ Macro Fundamental Analysis (GBP vs. JPY) 🔹 Interest Rate Differentials (Carry Trade Impact) Bank of England (GBP) The BoE has kept rates high to fight inflation. Higher GBP rates → capital inflows into GBP assets. Bullish for GBP/JPY. Bank of Japan (JPY) BoJ is still ultra-dovish, keeping negative/low interest rates. Japan’s government wants a weak yen to support exports. Bearish for JPY, Bullish for GBP/JPY (carry trade flows into GBP). 📊 Institutional View: Hedge funds & large investors prefer long GBP/JPY due to high interest rate spreads. GBP/JPY remains fundamentally bullish due to carry trade inflows. 🔹 Global Risk Sentiment (Risk-On vs. Risk-Off) GBP/JPY is a "risk-on" pair → it rises when markets are bullish and falls when investors seek safety. If stock markets are bullish, GBP/JPY tends to rise. If there’s a global crisis, investors move into JPY (safe-haven), causing GBP/JPY to fall. Current Market Sentiment: Stock markets are uncertain, but no full risk-off move yet. Watch equity markets & US bond yields for risk sentiment confirmation. 📊 Institutional View: Mild risk-on bias → GBP/JPY has support, but volatility remains high. 🔹 Institutional Positioning (COT Data & Hedge Fund Flows) Hedge funds have been buying GBP against JPY due to the rate differential. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Shows institutional investors are still net long GBP/JPY but reducing positions. Some profit-taking could lead to short-term downside. 📊 Institutional View: Long-term institutional bias is bullish, but hedge funds may reduce positions if risk-off sentiment increases. 2️⃣ Technical Analysis (ITPM Style) – Multi-Timeframe Breakdown 🔹 GBP/JPY (Daily Timeframe) 📈 Trend: Still in an uptrend, but approaching resistance. 📌 Key Resistance: 195.00 - 196.00 📌 Key Support: 191.00 - 190.00 🔹 Price is struggling at resistance near 194.00. 🔹 Possible pullback to 191.50 - 192.00 before resuming higher. 🔹 GBP/JPY (H4 Timeframe) 📉 Short-Term Weakness, but Still in an Uptrend Channel 📌 Key Level to Watch: 192.50 - 193.00 🔹 Bearish Rejection at 194.00, but still inside an uptrend structure. 🔹 If price breaks below 192.50, a deeper correction to 191.00 is likely. 🔹 GBP/JPY (H1 Timeframe) 📉 Intraday Weakness, Watch 192.50 for Breakdown 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 193.50 - 194.00 Support: 192.50 (short-term support), 191.50 (stronger support) 📊 Institutional View: Intraday traders may take short positions below 192.50, targeting 191.50 - 191.00. 3️⃣ Institutional Trade Setup (ITPM Style) 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Short-Term Correction) Entry: Sell below 192.50 (Break of key support). Target: 191.50 → 190.00 (support zone). Stop-Loss: Above 193.50. Rationale: Short-term hedge funds taking profits → minor pullback in bullish trend.
Short
by ShinForex1
Why eurgbp will sell this newyork session!!In my analysis, we are observing signs of weakness in the Euro, as indicated by recent candlestick formations that reflect a notable lack of buying pressure. This behavior appears to be aligning with key Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting a potential transition towards lower price levels. I anticipate that in the pre-New York session, we may witness a temporary fake-out before a subsequent downward movement. Traders should exercise caution and consider these factors in their decision-making process Follow me for more breakdown!!
by ShinForex1
GOLDThe chart shows Gold (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a bullish trend and key levels that traders should monitor. Here's a detailed breakdown: Key Observations: 1. Bullish Momentum: The price is currently in an uptrend, with a clear bullish breakout from the support zone near 3,000.000. This upward movement shows strength, indicating that gold is in a bullish phase, heading toward a higher target. 2. FVG (Fair Value Gap): The chart marks an FVG (Fair Value Gap), an area where price imbalances occurred. This gap may act as a support area if price retraces, potentially providing buying opportunities. The FVG area is located around 3,022.790, and if the price pulls back into this zone, it could present a good opportunity for a rebound. 3. Order Block: The order block is located above the FVG zone, near 3,030.000, marking a potential resistance level. This is where price might face selling pressure. If the price struggles to break through this order block, there could be a slight pullback or consolidation before continuing the upward movement.4. Target: The target is set at 3,004.000, which is the next key level. This price level might be a point where the price could face resistance or a potential reversal if it moves too quickly toward this level. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: If price breaks the order block at 3,030.000 and continues upward, it could target the 3,004.000 level. If the bullish momentum continues, we could see further movement above 3,040.000 in the near term. 2. Bearish Reversal: If the price fails to break the order block and starts to retrace, there is a potential for a pullback to the FVG around 3,022.790. This would be an opportunity for traders to buy the dip, especially if the price holds above the FVG zone. Conclusion: The chart shows a bullish outlook for gold with a target at 3,004.000. Watch for the price to either break the order block for continuation of the bullish trend, or retrace back to the FVG support zone for a potential bounce. Traders should focus on these key levels and look for confirmation of price action to decide on entry points.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Joan_Pro_Trader
GBP/USD LONGHi ! Based on the current price action and I have prepared 2 trades for next week. First is a long position from 1.287 where is VAL , price has respected this area, making it a good level for initiating a smaller long position with limited risk. Forward I am looking at 1.3 area and looking to scaling in after confirmation above 1.302 ensures that I participate in the trend continuation without overexposing prematurely. Step 1: Small Entry at 1.287 Entry: Long position at 1.287. Stop Loss: Below 1.2800. Take Profit: Partial profit near resistance at 1.3000, or hold until breakout confirmation. Step 2: Scale In After Breakout Entry Trigger: Wait for price action to break and hold above 1.302 (confirmed by strong candlestick close or volume spike). Entry Price: Enter larger position at 1.302. Stop Loss: Below recent breakout level (~1.295). Take Profit Levels: First Target: 1.3200. Second Target: 1.3400. FX:GBPUSD
Long
by Andrei_C
USDJPY SELL SETUP!!From a technical perspective, examining the USD/JPY chart, we might notice that prices are forming a lower high, which often indicates a potential downtrend. The price respecting Fibonacci retracement levels can also suggest that the market is reacting to key support and resistance levels. When traders see the price approaching these levels and behaving predictably, it can bolster their confidence in the direction of their trades. Overall, the expectation is for a continuing strength in the yen, especially if the market sentiment remains focused on potential rate hikes from the Fed. This scenario might lead to more bearish moves for the USD/JPY pair, making it important to watch for any significant economic data releases or comments from central bank officials that could signal changes in monetary policy.
Short
by ShinForex1
3
BTCUSD UPWARD TREND UPCOMING READ IN CAPTIONS BULLISHThe chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe, displaying a clear bearish channel with an expected reversal towards higher levels. Here’s the detailed analysis: Key Observations: 1. Bearish Channel: The price is currently inside a bearish channel marked by blue trendlines, where the price has been making lower highs and lower lows. This indicates that the current trend is bearish, but there are signs of a possible reversal at certain levels. 2. FVG (Fair Value Gap): The FVG (Fair Value Gap) zone is marked just above the support, suggesting an area of imbalance in market orders. The price is expected to fill this gap before continuing its bullish move. If the price stays above this gap, it could act as a support level. 3. Order Block: An order block is indicated at the top of the chart, suggesting that the price could potentially face resistance in this area. If the price manages to break through the resistance at this level, the bullish momentum could intensify. 4. Target: The target is set at 86,134, which is just above the current price level. If the price manages to break through the upper boundary of the channel and fill the FVG, it could move toward this target.5. Price Action: The price is currently bouncing around the FVG area, indicating that buyers may step in here, creating a potential opportunity to go long. The next step is to watch for a breakout above the resistance zone to confirm the continuation of the bullish move toward the target. Conclusion: The chart suggests that Bitcoin is currently in a bearish channel but could soon reverse if the price holds above the FVG zone around 84,100. A bullish breakout above the order block would likely lead to an upward movement, with the target at 86,134 in sight. Traders should monitor price action around the FVG gap and the order block for potential entry points.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Joan_Pro_Trader
1
Xauusd Trap to Sellers but Strong upward bullish Trend soonThe chart displays Gold (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe, showing a bullish trend with a defined upward channel. Here’s the breakdown: 1. Bullish Momentum: The price is following an upward trend within an ascending channel, indicating that the bullish momentum is strong. The target is set at 3060, suggesting that the price is expected to reach this level if the upward movement continues. 2. Order Block: The order block is identified at the top of the channel, which represents an area of significant buying interest. If the price pulls back to this order block, it could serve as a key support level and a potential area to enter long positions. 3. FVG (Fair Value Gap): An FVG zone is marked around 3043. This zone indicates an imbalance in market orders and may act as a support level for a price pullback before continuing the bullish trend. The FVG gap needs to be filled, and a price move back into this region may offer opportunities for buying. 4. Price Action: The price is currently testing an important support zone within the channel and the FVG. If the price holds above this zone, the bullish trend is likely to resume toward the target of 3060.5. Target 3060: The 3060 level is the primary target for the current bullish trend. If the price successfully breaks above the current resistance levels, the market could continue upward toward this price point. Conclusion: The chart shows a bullish outlook for Gold, with a potential target of 3060. Watch for a possible pullback to the FVG gap around 3043, which could provide an opportunity to enter long positions. If the price holds above this level, the bullish momentum will likely continue, reaching the 3060 target.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Joan_Pro_Trader
Oil bullish Trend soon read in captionThe chart shows WTI Crude Oil (CFDs) on a 1-hour timeframe, with a clear bullish trend. Here’s the detailed breakdown: 1. Bullish Momentum: The price is moving upwards within a channel, with the current price testing the upper boundary around 68.50. This level is identified as the next target, suggesting that the price may continue upward if it maintains the bullish momentum. 2. FVG (Fair Value Gap): Multiple FVG zones are marked on the chart, indicating areas where there is an imbalance in market orders. These gaps represent potential support and resistance levels: - The first FVG zone is marked near 67.50, which can act as support if the price retraces. - The second FVG zone near 68.04 could act as a potential gap to be filled if the price dips and closes a candle below this level. 3. Target 68.50: The next major target is set at 68.50, just below the upper resistance level. If the price breaks this resistance, it could continue moving upward. Traders should look for confirmation of bullish continuation once the price reaches this level.
TVC:USOILLong
by Joan_Pro_Trader
Will ES go more deeper ?The E-mini S&P 500 futures contract ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) exhibited a liquidation profile (Profile A), characterized by two distinct distributions. The subsequent session (Profile B) formed a balanced profile and remained entirely below the lower distribution of Profile A, indicating continued bearish sentiment. Profile C emerged as a short-covering profile, with its upper boundary testing the high of Profile B by a minimal margin. Both Profile B and C exhibited trading activity around the lower distribution of Profile A without breaching its low. Profiles A, B, and C established a base at the C Line, identified as a longer-term support or demand zone. Yesterday's session (Profile D) also presented a liquidation profile, briefly trading below the C Line before recovering and maintaining balance around this level. The market demonstrates reluctance for further downside, with lower prices consistently triggering short-covering rallies rather than initiating new selling. Even though Profile D traded lower, it did not exhibit significant selling conviction. Given the prevailing geopolitical risks, including the ongoing tariff disputes and the unresolved Ukraine-Russia conflict, further liquidation during today's Regular Trading Hours (RTH) remains a possibility. However, sustained buying interest above the balance of Profile C, driven by short covering and new long positions, would indicate a potential shift in market sentiment towards accumulation on a higher timeframe. The market's behavior during today's RTH session will be crucial in determining the next directional move.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ruby_kinetix
Market Anticipation: Geopolitical Tensions Signal Volatility ATitle: “ES Futures: Tensions Ahead of the Trump-Zelensky Confrontation” As markets gear up for what could be a pivotal geopolitical showdown, the S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) are reflecting cautious positioning. The recent price action has been telling: early-day balance on Thursday gave way to late-session liquidations, and Friday saw a near mirror reversal. This behavior may point to either month-end rebalancing or anticipation of the Trump-Zelensky meeting, where market sentiment seems to be taking cues from factors beyond conventional U.S. policy narratives. Key Insights: • Intraday Dynamics: Thursday’s session witnessed initial equilibrium followed by marked liquidation toward the close, suggesting profit-taking or defensive rebalancing. On Friday, the reversal of Thursday’s moves hints at market indecision—a potential prelude to heightened volatility. • Geopolitical Catalysts: The upcoming Trump-Zelensky meeting appears to be a significant driver. Beyond traditional economic factors, markets seem to be pricing in geopolitical risk, as evidenced by the nuanced trading patterns observed in early March. • Market Breadth: While the spotlight is on ES futures, other instruments are in play: • European Front ( EUREX:FDXM1! ): Watch for reactions post-meeting, as European leaders might rally in response. • Safe Havens ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! & NYMEX:CL1! ): Gold and oil futures are likely to serve as bellwethers for risk sentiment. • The Dollar ( CAPITALCOM:DXY ): Expected to strengthen amid a flight to quality, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. The market, as always, seems to understand dynamics that sometimes elude policymakers. As we approach this high-stakes meeting, prepare for a potential surge in volatility across asset classes. What are your thoughts on this geopolitical gamble, and how are you positioning your portfolio in anticipation of these events?
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ruby_kinetix
DAX futures after Trump - Zeleansky clash meetingMarket Analysis: Anticipating March Volatility The market is demonstrating superior collective intelligence through recent price action. The EUREX:FDXM1! index has established balanced profile patterns over several consecutive sessions, indicating a lack of directional conviction among participants. This consolidation phase suggests market participants are in a holding pattern, awaiting catalytic information before committing to directional positions . Friday, February 28th marked both month-end rebalancing and a critical geopolitical event as markets positioned ahead of the Trump-Zelensky meeting. The subsequent contentious Oval Office exchange between the US and Ukrainian presidents on February 28th has created significant geopolitical uncertainty . This high-stakes diplomatic confrontation, which ended without the anticipated minerals agreement being signed, has introduced a new variable into market equations . Projected Market Impact Early March is likely to experience heightened volatility across multiple asset classes: - **European and US Indices**: The breakdown in US-Ukraine relations and resulting implications for European security policy will likely trigger significant price swings in both US and European equity markets . With European leaders now forced to reconsider their defense strategies in light of potentially diminishing US support, market participants must reprice risk premiums accordingly . - **Commodities**: Oil and gold NYMEX:CL1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! markets should see amplified movement as geopolitical tensions typically drive safe-haven flows and energy price speculation . - **Currency Markets**: The dollar CAPITALCOM:DXY is positioned to strengthen against major currencies as uncertainty typically benefits the world's reserve currency, particularly when European geopolitical stability comes into question . The DAX futures, currently showing mixed signals from analysts with projections ranging from 17,500 to potentially higher levels by year-end, will likely experience increased volatility in the near term as markets digest these developments .
EUREX:FDXMH2025
by ruby_kinetix
ES still in decision after drop before xmasBond Auction Demand Analysis The recent 10-year Bond Auction showed weaker demand with a 0.2 tails basis point, indicating reduced investor interest compared to previous auctions. The high bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53 suggests challenges for the stock market rally as investors seek higher yields. A 30-year Bond Auction on January 9th will provide further insights into market trends. Jobless Claims Report Impact The Initial Jobless Claims report showed favorable results, which could support a steady move in the market, particularly in the CME_MINI:ESH2025 ES index. Traders are closely monitoring these developments as they assess the implications for interest rates and overall market performance. Market Reaction and Expectations During the first session of the US market, there was little decision-making movement, indicating a need for more information on market reactions. With a national holiday approaching and a 30-year Bond Auction scheduled, a quieter market is expected in the interim.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ruby_kinetix
ES on early Jan'25 CME_MINI:ESH2025 Market Balance Dynamics The market is currently exhibiting a prolonged initial balance on the downside, indicating a period of consolidation. Accumulation of Passive Buyers There seems to be a potential accumulation of passive buyers taking advantage of the downtrend, suggesting that buying interest may be building. Uncertainty in Market Movements However, it is still too early in the market to predict definitive movements, leaving room for either further downward trends or recovery.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ruby_kinetix