Gold(Xauusd) Massive Buy setupCheck the video to get understanding on my view on Gold this week
Follow and comment below for other breakdowns
Marketprofile
Showcase of the Power of Market Profile AnalysisMarket Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors alike to analyze price movements in financial markets. The method is based on the concept that price moves in a predictable way, forming patterns that can be observed and analyzed.
The Market Profile chart is a visual representation (not shown here) of market activity, displaying the distribution of price over time. The chart is divided into horizontal sections, each representing a price level. The length of the bar indicates the duration of time during which trades occurred at that price level.
The Market Profile chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as areas of high and low volume. The three key components of the Market Profile chart are the Point of Control (POC), the Value Area, and the Single Prints.
The Point of Control (POC) is the price level at which the highest volume of trades occurred during the period under analysis. It represents the most actively traded price level during that time frame, and is often seen as a key support or resistance level.
The Value Area is the range of price levels that contain a specified percentage of the total trading volume during the period under analysis. The Value Area can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities.
Single Prints are price levels where trading activity occurred but did not overlap with any other price levels during the period under analysis. These are areas where price discovery occurred, and can be used to identify areas of potential price support or resistance.
By analyzing the Market Profile chart, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. The chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities based on the volume and duration of trading activity at specific price levels.
Between end of Dec 2022 and end of Jan 2023, the price of the S&P 500 index (SPX) showed major reactions to the price levels drawn by using Market Profile analysis that was done in Oct 2022 . This is a prime example of the power of this trading method. By identifying key levels of support and resistance, traders were able to make more informed trading decisions and take advantage of market opportunities.
In conclusion, Market Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors who want to gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. By analyzing the distribution of price and volume over time, traders can identify key levels of support and resistance, and take advantage of market opportunities. The example of the S&P 500 index (SPX) in October of last year showcases the power of this trading method, and demonstrates how it can be used to make profitable trades in a dynamic and ever-changing market.
AUDUSD Its more likely that AUDUSD continues to decline, however there are some minor demand zones that will cause pullbacks and you can catch them as a good opportunity to short trade..
Have Fun
..Kai..
Trade Plan 12/22/2022
P-Shape Formation = Short Covering + Strong Buyers
*Possible end to a downtrend if we can confirm the market structure change.
TP1> If we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3905, I want to see a break above previous POC 3914 (BEARS LIS) to support the upside trade. After than we can go for 3934 > 3960 > 3980 3995.
TP2> If we manage to Trade below MAIN POC 3905, the downside is 3886 > 3874, where maybe we can have a BULL Fight, if lost we can ride back to 3858 > 3850 Naked POC.
*All trades must be taken after IB (Initial Balance) 9:45am-10:00am
#tradesafe #sizekills
GBPAUD Longs looking at longs because of multiple confluences but anyways target just below 1.84 we'll see what happens.
How to trade using Value Areas and POC?A few key concepts when using Market Profile in your trading:
1) Point of Control (POC) acts as price magnets, as they represent the price level where most time was spent during a trading day. Price tends to gravitate towards them.
2) Naked (Not visited) POC acts as stronger magnets than visited POCs.
3) When price enters / breaks into a Value Area, which represents a range of "fair value", price tends to visit the other end of the Value Area. For example above, the price breaks up from the Value Area Low before end of day yesterday, hit the Value Area High this morning.
You definitely won't find these key levels and ranges with traditional support and resistance lines drawing methods. Using Market Profile will give you the edge to become a better trader.
See my previous 2 posts:
SPX, looking for long up to Value Area HighWe have broken into a Naked Value Area, many opportunities awaits~! Let's see if the bulls can take control. Two key levels to watch before reaching the other side of the Value Area.
SPX hitting huge excess area, which way will it go next?As you can see, the price is sitting in a large excess range, trying to push higher with the bullish momentum since the opening. Looks like it is feeling lots of selling pressure. But if we can break up and into the higher naked value area, there is great opportunity for a bull run to the value area high. Otherwise, we might go back to the value area from yesterday's price action. What's your take?? Will we go up or down?
Where are we going next for SPX?Looks like we just broke into a naked value area from last week. There is a single print area just on top of this area that has been acting as support/resistance level. If we can break that after breaking the upside of our current value area, we could be heading up. Otherwise, we are going back down.
17-21/10/2022 Weekly OutlookHKEX:HSI1!
Happy trading!
#marketprofile #volumeprofile #orderflow #chartanalysis #chartporn
*****
I use this platform as a way to organize my thoughts and plan for my personal trading for the sessions to come. Do not misconstrue this newsletter as actionable trading advice. I am simply sharing my thoughts as a market operator through this newsletter, which helps me get my head straight and hold myself accountable for the next day. It is very possible that I am flat wrong in all of my scenarios.
Here what i think about TSLANASDAQ:TSLA is paying within 260 - 315 range area.. which is not so wide range for TSLA. i really don't a serious selling in TSLA. CME_MINI:ES1! is near the low of this year (2022) , which 3650s area (June low). if ES run out supply, and i think it should, TSLA will bail out all of seller at 315 area, poor structure. let's watch this moves..
A Dive Into My Swing Trading Approach (+setup) This video was a short synthesis of my swing trading approach. For the amount of information I presented, I'm not expecting to successfully being able to convey my means and ways in one short video, but I'm glad if I could at least show a different perspective.
Some important things I forgot to mention:
- The tolerance for identifying a visual weak liquidity pattern is 2 ticks, 3 ticks during highly volatile days (for the ES). This can change from one market to another. Anything more than 2/3 ticks is considered a move of conviction supported by strong liquidity, a market that has the confidence to see what's beyond a certain point to then either sharply reverse or move forward.
- Using this method I CANNOT know what the market makers are exactly doing, there is no way to know, they will always be a step ahead of any brilliant retail trader. However, we can understand their logic and the weak traders' logic, the latter is the type we want to trade against.
SETUP
As I said, I favour a short trade, but as of today I have to remain on the sidelines. During this times is important to be flexible and change ones bias if that's what the market is suggesting. I will post my set up (if any) in due course.
NIFTYImportant Levels for 04/08/2022.
2 beautiful trades for today, we captured the fall and then the longs, overall a wonderful day.
17500 and 17250 will be levels to watch out tomorrow, any break on either side can give good momentum.
Tomorrow, if we see a flat open, I personally wont recommend shorts immediately as there was a strong buying volume in 17335-17360 zone and a massive cluster above 17388, so these levels will definitely act as support. So longs can be taken above 17440 for 17500 as targets with SL of 17410.
In case of a gap up, will wait and watch for price reaction at 17500 levels before initiating any trades.
In case of a gap down, will look to buy at marked support areas with 20 point SL for targets of 17440 and 17500.
BANK NIFTYImportant levels for 04/08/2022.
Yesterday's analysis for today worked out perfectly and we got 2 good trades as per our levels.
For tomorrow's expiry 38400 and 37750 are the reference levels to watch out. The range from 37740-37810 has been acting as a good support zone and has been tested multiple times in the last few sessions. Similarly on the upside 38400 is VPOC from 4th April and should act as a resistance.
So, if we see a flat open, we shall wait for the price to sustain above 38200 and then take longs for targets of 38400. SL for this can be placed at 38150. Also 38174 will be an important reference point and any selling volume seen here can be used as an entry for shorts with SL of 38250 for targets of 38060,38000 and 37960.
In case of gap down, 37970 levels will be crucial, once we see buying vols longs can be taken for targets of 38060, 38100 and 38175. SL can be placed around 37900.
The buying volumes in the late hour today does make shorting a bit of a risky affair.
#ES Futures Review for the week 06.05.22Last Tuesday I was doing a review and saw that Friday the 27th we broke into a balance where we still had plenty of supply over 4143.75 and our position is below 4084.50 which told me that we will most likely spend some time around here to consolidate before we can confirm direction for the next move, Tuesdays close confirmed that more and I gave myself a range we could possibly stay within which was 4170-4060 so we can clean things up and get ready for the next move, especially with it being the beginning of a new month I was looking for the range to tighten up which we started to do, we made an attempt to get out of 4170 Thursday but that move was sold and we went back towards the smaller position that was between 4100-4077, failure to reach 4077 for now and filling orders below it is a sign of strength for my MGI, it tells me that so far its just inventory moving and not LTF sellers. It takes time after large moves to clean things up, take care of business and confirm next move. We don't really have any market moving events until Thursday/Friday so I will be cautious in the beginning of the week because we are still closing within range and this is where it can tighten more or attempt stop runs before it chooses direction. This week I want to see if we attempt a break down under 4084-77 and come back in without reaching the next Key Support around 4030-25 to trade it from 4084 back up to 4137-43 and possible move higher to 4220-4214+ area or failure to take out 4084-77 and get back over 4143 to make a run at 4220-4214+. This week the only shorting locations I am interested in is if we get back to 4143-37 area without extending from it or if we lose 4046-42 and clear break and continuation on 4030-25.
BITCOIN POTENTIAL LONG SCENARIOHi Everyone.
Thanks for reading my post.
Looking at the current price level that BITCOIN has pierced through which is the Low of 28850. This is a Bold INTERMEDIATE DOWN TREND LOW and piercing slightly below it to 26700 and recovering back above it has open a significant door to Long Opportunity.
I believe BTC is a Long term UPTREND and we have hit a level that if held i.e 28850 as it is currently holding am calling a BUY OPPORTUNITY IN the BTC to at least 39K to 40K region in the near term.
Couple with the fact that the last 2 weeks volume started to dry up from about 900K plus 3 weeks ago to 300K plus 2 weeks ago and 400K plus last week, it is glaring the SELLING PRESSURE has eased.
My SWING TRADE CHART POSITION on 4 hour chart has seen some clear END of DOWN AUCTION pinbar or Single Prints on DAILY and 4 Hour Chart.
Also my hourly Chart has tested the some liquidity lows or Support levels and grabbed some liquidity which is an important part of the Order Block Manipulation and Liquidity grab @ lows between the 28900 and 28600 region.
Am calling a BUY OPPORTUNITY around a retracement back to 29400/200 buying zone.
I am believing if price trades below 28000 then I will be reanalysing this BUY OPPORTUNITY which makes it my Stop Area.
I am targeting at least 39K to 40K price level with this call.
Happy and safe trading,
Thanks you all.
Bitcoin according the volume profileHello traders!
Today I would like to show you how to trade according to the volume profile.
The volume profile is another indicator and it shows the market behaviour each price levels.
Now (the price 29 300) in on the bottom of current market profile. It is the last support before next dump. In case of the dump is next suport around 23k and 18k.
The rally up is still in the game but it should be only correction to 38k or max to 47k.
HOW THE MARKET SHOULD MOVE RELATIVE VALUE AREASThis is how the market should move related to tpo value areaas learned in smb capital course because when price imbalances it goes to next zone where it can retest the edges and react from pocs
S&P ShortPicture perfect rejection of the 200 moving average adding resistance to the median line of a pitchfork I drew on the recent pivots.
The market profile served as my price for entry and a bearish hourly candle broke through it.
The stochastic RSI in overbought conditions adds extra confluence after the cross
Stop loss is a few pips above the 78.6 level of the Fib I draw from A - B. Take profit at the 50%
ETHUSD Pitchfork Projection and Prediction March - AprilAnchored at A: 24 Jan, B: 10 Feb and C: 24 Feb's pivots.
After forming a double bottom at point C, 28 Feb's bullish engulfing closed above the median line, so I marked the 50% level between point B + C to mark the validity level of my trading idea.
I am anticipating a push into the 3.4k area mid march before seeing a minor retracement back down to around 3k where the 23.6% Fibonacci level is sitting.
A bullish daily close above 3k, and a break of the lower pitchfork's upper median line would initiate a bull run into the next strong resistance which I have identified at around 4k.
The fixed market profile tool shows me that there is a lot of volume at this area and the cross between the projected pitchfork's median line and this level creates an interesting zone of price which I predict to be reached any time from late March to early April.
I have attached a link to today's intraday chart with a 60 period SMMA where an ascending triangle is forming.
If this chart pattern is confirmed and we stay above this average, it will initiate my trading idea until we close/crash below the 50% Fibonacci level I have marked.
$Gold $GL on accumulation buying process or another sell off.. $Gold $GLD has been falling down heavily for couple of days..
buyers came back at 1780s, and 1800-1805 will be potential for selling .. let see if big time frame buyers will accumulate at 1780s and above, or this will be another more selling to test 1760.
My bias is Neutral to bearish, and I don't see any strong bullish reversal evidence yet. I need Buyers to show their aggressiveness above 1800s area
