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Marketreversal

Potential Market Reversal by May 2024Overview I can't shake the feeling that a large market correction is around the corner and at the same time the market contradicts my sentiments by appearing stronger every day. So I decided to investigate the 1 Year Treasury Note ( TVC:US01Y ) which is directly affected by Fed Rates to see how the market correlated to those changes in the past. What I found leads me to believe that a steep -- but temporary -- correction is approaching between late March and early May 2024. Historical Data (Feb 2016-Feb 2024) While it may not always feel like it, the stock market appears to have an overall bullish affinity even during economic struggle such as can be seen during the pandemic of 2020. After an average of three FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings, a sharp correction took place within the FOMC meeting range or shortly following the third meeting. This is the case for all but the fourth window which actually manifested a reversal to what has become the rally we are experiencing today. The chart above compares the TVC:US01Y (Top) to the SP:SPX (Bottom Left) and TVC:DJI (Bottom Right). I interpreted this data as potentially two truths: 1) Institutional investors retreat during transitional periods then resurface when the outlook is more clear, typically reigniting the previous trend despite an overall trend change within Fed rates. 2) Fed rate changes are a precursor for market reversals. While not the only factor, they appear to hold a significant weight that if supported could lead to a reverse in market trajectory as can be seen after the third and fourth window of FOMC meetings. **I only accounted for FOMC meetings where the 1 Year Treasury Note experienced significant trend changes** Market Projections I do not believe an apocalyptic correction is coming, but I do believe there will be a significant dip across the board following one of the next two consecutive FOMC meetings. The current dates for those meetings are March 19-20 and April 30 - May 1, 2024. It is my opinion that the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels serve as a good opportunity to enter a position should a correction occur. However, technical indicators should be closely watched for signs of a recovery before entering any positions.
DJ:DJIShort
by Shepherd_Investor
4
SPX Bull Run May Be OverHi Traders! SPX looks to have fallen short of the record high, and there could potentially be a big pullback that is about to occur. Here are the details: There is an evening star candle pattern currently on the 1W chart, and this is the first week the market's weekly open price has opened substantially lower than the previous week's closing price in about 8 weeks. We are looking for a pullback to test the previous resistance break at 4637.30, which is now the support, and if the market breaks below that, then the next level will be trendline support at 4331.90, which lines up with the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level at 4311.69. Preferred Direction: Sell Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 4818.62 Support: 4637.30 Trendline Support: 4331.90 38.2 Fibonacci Support: 4311.69 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
TVC:SPXShort
by BluetonaFX
2
Can SPX Push through a Wall of Resistance?Can SPX Continue to Push Through a Wall of Resistance? Like many other global indices and liquid assets, the S&P 500 (SPX) has had a powerful rally off June 17, 2022 lows. This rally coincided with the July 2022 FOMC meeting and presser—the rally increased in the days preceding the FOMC meeting and then continued in earnest afterwards. This post will not attempt to analyze the public debate over whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell's unscripted comments about the Federal Funds rate being at the "neutral rate" equate to a dovish shift. In any case, markets have seemingly interpreted (or perhaps misinterpreted) this statement as providing support for risk assets. The Fibonacci resistance discussed below also coincides with major chart resistance shown by the blue rectangle in the chart below. This area of strong resistance captures a number of highs and lows from the consolidation in early June 2022, the lows in March 2022, and the lows in February 2022. Chart Showing Price Resistance at Former Highs, Lows and and early June 2022 Consolidation Fibonacci Analysis SPX has rallied above 4137.50, which is the .50 retracement (R) of this bear market's most recent leg of decline, i.e., the decline from March 29 highs to June 17 lows. At first, SPX stalled at this .50 R for three consecutive days, with each day showing price piercing above this level and then immediately being rejected and closing back below it. But today, price closed above it. This level should continue to be watched as price may push through it and then fail back below again several days later. But SPX does not have an unfettered path back to all-time highs. Within the coming days, the Fibonacci cluster highlighted on the main chart above will be critical to watch. This cluster ranges from 4114.59 to 4255.13. Note the bullish slope of the 8-day and 21-day EMAs (labeled on the main chart above), which indicate continuing momentum that could allow for another push right up to this Fibonacci cluster area. Price could, however, fail yet again at current levels given that the key .50 R level was near the high of the current price bar's range. An additional Fibonacci level coincides with the Fibonacci cluster shown on the main chart above. This level is the 1.618 projection (or extension) of the shown in the chart below. The 1.618 Projection of First Leg of Rally from the July 14 Low Momentum Analysis Momentum appears to be in the beginning stages of waning and weakening. For momentum, consider the two charts below showing %B indicator (a derivative of Bollinger Bands) and the RSI indicator. %B Indicator (Daily Chart) Shows Relative Weakness with New High on August 3, 2022 RSI on Daily Chart Shows Divergence But note that the divergence on RSI could disappear if price presses up higher tomorrow, drawing the RSI to an even higher level that helps it make a new RSI high along with a new price high. This bears watching carefully. Finally, the early stages of weakening momentum does not necessarily mean that the rally is finished. It just means that stops on longs should be tightened. And for example, those with a bearish view may want to begin looking for sell triggers signaling a shorter-term trend reversal, but caution for bearish positions is warranted because whether this rally may extend for another month or two or whether the bear market will immediately resume remains unclear. SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD BLACKBULL:SPX500 VANTAGE:SP500 AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:ES1!
SP:SPX
by SquishTrade
U.S. Bonds & Stocks is ready for a rebound, why?One of the ways to determine U.S. stocks and indices’ direction in the long-term is to also know where the U.S. bonds markets are heading. Why? This is because the US bonds, its market capitalization can be as large as all the U.S. stocks market combined; therefore, it is also as important to also track its direction. In the macro trend over generations, the bonds move in tandem with the stocks market, meaning if bonds are heading up, the stocks market will likely follow. • Where is the main trend of the 30 Years T-Bond? • Why is the stocks market due for a rebound in the coming week? For this demonstration, I am using the CBOT U.S. 30 years T Bond Futures. If you are interested to research and explore into other treasuries tenures and the yield curve, under symbol search, Futures tab – search for Bonds, Notes or Yields. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by konhow
Just found the craziest thing I have ever seen trading!!!June 13 marked a historical point in the sense of the widest thing I have ever seen. After only trading spy for over a year now I have a price action mark dating back to march 23,2020. Spy hit an all time high back in February of 2020 which was roughly 337.16 and then immidiatly fell down 107.83 points bringing us to the 229.33 level. January 3, 2022 marked an all time high for spy which was a price of roughly 475.75 which then in what the government thought was a RECESSION fell down 107.64 points to the low of 368.11 which was on June 13 in which we bounced off of the 200 day ema pushing us upward. Here's where all this comes together and why yes the economy may be in a slump right now but this is actually a necessary time in order to reach new highs. in 2020 we saw the huge uptrend and then we fell and in 2022 we saw the same uptrend and the fall but if you look closely after each fall we ended up over a period of time reaching a new high. What proves my point and is also scary is why that when you look closely it is pretty much the exact same price fall. 2020 we saw a 107.83 fall and 2022 we saw a 107.64. After both of these falls we later reached new highs. THIS HAS TO BE ONE HUGE HISTORICAL POINT EVERYONE IS MISSING. THANK YOU EVERYONE FOR LISTENING AND LETS GET BACK TO A NEW HIGH, I THINK WE JUST FOUND A BOTTOM. LIKE EVERYONE SAYS HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!!!
AMEX:SPYLong
by haydencrann
9
HOW TO SPOT A MARKET REVERSAL: A beginner's guideHappy Friday, ladies and gentlemen. The topic of our first educational post for the day is the following: How to spot a possible market reversal. Of course, there are many strategies and various methods one can implement to identify a reversal in the markets. The method that we will be talking about today is relatively simple and really effective. We use two methods to determine a possible reversal: Double Top/Double Bottom pattern formations or break of a trendline. As it can be inferred from the chart, both of the cases of a market reversal strategy that we implement can be noticed. The first one is a Double Bottom Reversal. When the price manages to create a Double Bottom/Double Top on higher timeframes, it means that the price has not been able to break the structure and is on his way to reverse. Looking at the graph, we can observe that the price’s attempts of breaking the 1678-1680 level of support to the downside resulted in being unsuccessful. Therefore, a nice double bottom formation had been formed and the price started moving to the upside from there. The second approach is even more simple, we just follow the trend. Remember the saying: “Trend is your friend until the bend in the end”? That’s right, if the price manages to break an uptrending or a downtrending trendline, it’s time to reverse for the most part. Looking at the chart, we can see that the price failed to create a new Higher High, and it broke the uptrending trendline to the downside and started dropping massively. That's it for the topic of "Market Reversals", family! Hope you enjoyed it. If you have any suggestions on what kind of educational posts we should post next, feel free to let us know in the comment section below! Have a nice day and an amazing upcoming weekend!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Investroy
24
Crypto Total Market Downtrend Reversal*** THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE *** DYOR and don't take my word for anything. The overall crypto market downtrend is reversing. The last market cycle started when Elon Musk announced an over $1.5BB investment into BTC as part of an upcoming strategy at Tesla to start accepting BTC as payment. The upward trend reversed when interest rates climbed and cryptocurrencies hit ATHs. The money moved from tech stocks and crypto as profits were taken. It appears the market has bottomed out and is turning. Buy the dip and hodl bitches.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by angryeng
1
The End of a Bull Cycle: $SPY to Collapse; Shorten Most PositionThe bull cycle that has run for nearly nine months is showing all the sputtering signs of a complete reversal. The heavy industries already peaked and went on their runs, the distribution is high, large cap stocks are stalling out at ATHs and annual-highs, and this is not sustainable with the various depressions on the global economy, nevermind just the US S&P. The arc shown is an indication of this trader's belief we will a re-visit to either September lows, or if not, really close to Sept Lows. To this point, my recommendation (but NOT ADVICE) is to shorten most positions and remove any margin. But as always, do whatsoever thou may'st! This albeit is not the most technical chart, but the various other indicators such as the frequently strong opens and whimpering closes to each trading day, all indicate we have seen this bull market sneakily peakout. There may be a couple of weak spikes back upwards, but eventually, a lot of buyers are going to be shaken out in this sell-off. Chart for the dips to buy later. Also, remember, when a stock really takes a massive hit, it does NOT ALWAYS bounce back to full-health. These are going to be tougher times for the market, and while this trader has not scheduled any $SPY puts, it is hardly something that would be discouraged either. GL (THIS TIME WE'RE "REALLY GONNA NEEEEEEED IT" - Smashing Pumpkins)..... BDR
AMEX:SPYShort
by BDRTrigger33
11