T Bond Futures Quarterly chart targets the LOWSDebt levels are increasing
There is insufficient demand to soak issuance.
Interest rates need to increase.
The value of bonds is expected to decline down to the bear flag target.
Markets
Europe’s Center is CRUMBLING: VGK on the Brink? 🚨 Europe’s Center is CRUMBLING: VGK on the Brink? 🚨
Europe’s elections just lit a FUSE! 💥 Poland (May 18), Portugal (May 18), and Romania (May 4 & 18) held off populists, but the center’s hanging by a thread—50% in Poland went right-wing, Portugal’s Chega is shaking things up.
Immigration and globalization fury could rattle EU trade & policy. 📉 VGK ($75.53) is inches from its yearly high ($75.56)—ready to crash or soar?
💡 Trade Idea: Plot VGK price action with election dates (May 4, May 18, June 1, 2025) to spot volatility breakouts. Watch for support near $70 or resistance at $76.
❓ Your Move? Will VGK tank or rally on Europe’s chaos? Drop your trade below! 👇
Europe’s Political Powder Keg: Markets on Edge!🔥 Europe’s Political Powder Keg: Markets on Edge! 🔥
Europe’s elections just dropped a BOMB! 💣 Poland (May 18), Portugal (May 18), and Romania (May 4 & 18) rejected far-right surges, but the center’s crumbling. 🇪🇺 Poland’s pro-EU Trzaskowski barely leads—June 1 runoff could flip it! Portugal’s Chega is shaking the old guard, and Romania’s Nicușor Dan rides an anti-corruption wave.
Why care? Political chaos = market volatility. 📉 EUR/USD is wobbling, DAX could tank, and defense stocks (🇺🇦 ties) are in play.
💡 Trade Idea: Overlay EUR/USD with election dates (May 4, May 18, June 1) to catch volatility spikes.
❓ What’s your move? Will Europe’s turmoil crash markets or spark a rally? Drop your take below! 👇
Why it's time to take a closer look at Palantir stockWell well well, a good mystery starts with a whisper. For Palantir, it began in 2003, in the shadows of war-torn Iraq and Afghanistan. U.S. forces were struggling. Data was scattered. Decisions were delayed. Then came a company that promised to stitch the chaos together - to map the battlefield, spot terrorists, and maybe, just maybe, save lives!
After two decades: Palantir is no longer just a software firm - it's a silent architect behind some of the West’s most mission-critical operations.
🕵️♂️ Mission?
Not just to build technology. Not just to analyze data. But to influence life-and-death decisions - "Our product is used on occasion to kill people," their leadership says without blinking.
💼 Game?
Winning Defense Department contracts - and commercial giants too.
They've hired former Pentagon insiders, like Gregory Barbaccia and Shyam Sankar, and even political power players like Machalagh Carr, formerly Chief of Staff to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Play chess, not checkers?
💉 During the COVID-19 pandemic, Palantir stepped into the public health arena, building the infrastructure to track outbreaks and distribute vaccines for the U.S. government. They weren’t just responding - they were organizing the response.
🧠 And now? AI is their battlefield.
In August 2024, they deepened ties with Microsoft, integrating Azure OpenAI with Palantir's AIP - but not just anywhere. In classified environments. The stakes? National security. The client? The U.S. government.
$130,000 coin is inevitableAll the stars are aligned:
-BTC following Global M2
-BTC and pro crypto administration
-Corporate adoption picking up
-Most scarce unit in any market
Magnificent Seven: Still Magnificent? Or Diverging for Good?The Nasdaq 100 has bounced, but under the surface, the “Magnificent Seven” are no longer marching in sync.
And this divergence matters, especially if you’re trading QQQ or using it as a momentum proxy.
⚔️ Leadership Rotation in Real Time
- Nvidia (NVDA): Still a beast. Making fresh highs, clear institutional momentum.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Quiet strength — not flashy, but technically clean.
- Meta, Amazon: Holding up, consolidating after major runs.
- Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA): Weak links. AAPL can't find a bid. TSLA is stuck below major resistance.
Trading QQQ directly?
Consider weighting your thesis by what’s working under the hood.
- QQQ reclaimed the 200-day MA with the May 12's gap echoing the broader S&P move.
- Look for a retest of the resistance and the previous high of 540
- Play breakouts with confirmation, or mean-reverting pullbacks.
🧠 Final Take
The Magnificent Seven are splitting into two camps: those still driving the rally, and those dragging it.
Tariffs Shocked the World, But Look What Happened NextTrump's “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff in the S&P 500 on the 2nd April. A classic policy shock! But the market has since clawed back every point.
So what now? Let’s break it down by strategy.
🔎 Long-Term Investors: Stay the Course
1) This recovery reinforces one truth: When you own quality businesses, Volatility ≠ Risk. Policy creates opportunity, not exit signals.
2) Stick with great companies, buy on fear, and ignore the noise. The next 10 years won’t be won by panic.
⚡ Momentum Traders: Technical Reversal Delivered
1) S&P 500 bounced above its 30-day MA. With the May 12th’s bullish gap (post temporary tariff pause) confirming the trend shift.
2) This was a textbook momentum setup. But if you didn’t plan for the whipsaw, you missed the edge.
📈 What This Means Now
Short-term volatility is likely to continue as tariffs, rates, and elections are all on the table.
Watch for pullbacks into structure and keep risk tight as news-driven moves will be fast and brutal.
Choose your timeframe. Respect the trend. Don’t confuse noise with signal.
The edge now isn’t in prediction — it’s in preparation.
MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025
📈 5625 5638 5650
📉 5614 5602 5590
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more ES/NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025
📈 19840 19900 19965
📉 19779 19717 19655
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more ES/NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
SPY Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025SPY Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025
📈 560.55 562.50
📉 556.64 554.69
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more ES/NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
May 6, 2025 - Markets Hold Their Breath Before Powell SpeaksHello everyone, it’s May 6, 2025 and markets are once again at the mercy of politics, Powell, and presidential mood swings.
After a 9-day rally, U.S. markets finally took a breather yesterday, with mild profit-taking ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision. Investors are caught between two competing visions: Trump’s push for massive rate cuts, insisting inflation is a myth cooked up by bureaucrats, and Powell’s more sober stance acknowledging inflation isn’t dead, the economy is softening, and premature easing could trigger full-blown stagflation.
With Friday’s job report stronger than expected, Powell is expected to hold rates steady, staying cautious while tariffs and growth clouds loom. Markets are pricing in a July cut at best, but uncertainty lingers mostly around what Trump might tweet in reaction to Powell’s speech tomorrow night.
Meanwhile, despite the 90-day tariff moratorium, the trade war narrative hasn’t vanished. NYSE:F suspended its 2025 outlook, citing $1.5 billion in expected tariff costs and four major risks: disrupted supply chains, retaliatory measures, unclear tax policies, and emission rules. NASDAQ:MAT is also hedging its bets shifting production out of China and pausing forecasts, while begging for zero tariffs on toys “for the kids.” Their stocks dropped modestly after hours.
OANDA:XAUUSD surged again to $3,368, as fear and safe-haven demand ticked up. BLACKBULL:WTI rebounded to over $58 following an OPEC statement, helping airline stocks breathe a bit. BINANCE:BTCUSDT continued its meteoric rise, now sitting around $94,400.
On the macro front, inflation data like CPI and PPI are being shrugged off everyone’s waiting to see if Powell plays ball with Trump. There’s hope, too, that all this chaos is just Trump’s way of muscling the world into negotiation especially China and if a “deal” emerges, markets could rip higher. Until then, we’re stuck dancing between uncertainty and hope.
Asia opened strong this morning, led by China’s cautious optimism. Futures point slightly lower in the U.S., and volatility remains king. The Fed could flip the script tomorrow or keep us hanging. Stay buckled in.
Tariffs, and Tumult: Wall Street Waits on Super WednesdayHello everyone, it’s April 30, 2025. The TVC:DJI just closed its sixth consecutive green session, with markets clinging to hope as rumors swirl of a first tariff deal—possibly with India—though nothing is confirmed. That tiny breadcrumb of optimism was enough to boost sentiment late in yesterday’s session, even if volatility is dipping below 25% and investor enthusiasm seems to be fading in lockstep.
U.S. macro data continues to paint a picture of “not great, but not terrible.” Consumer confidence and job openings (JOLTS) came in below expectations but not disastrously so, prompting markets to collectively shrug and declare everything “less worse than feared.” It’s a strategy now: ignore bad data as long as it isn’t apocalyptic.
As earnings roll in, companies are split between those who pretend the tariff storm is “manageable” (hello, NASDAQ:COKE ) and those flying blind through economic fog ( NYSE:UPS , Snap, and Super Micro—who might be losing a major client named Nvidia). The overall takeaway? Visibility is garbage, and most companies are bracing rather than building.
All eyes are now on today’s so-called Super Wednesday, packed with economic data (U.S. GDP, PCE, ADP jobs, Chicago PMI) and mega-earnings from NASDAQ:MSFT and NASDAQ:META . But as usual, expectations may outpace reality. Markets often dream of clarity and wake up to more noise.
Meanwhile, China flashed its first big red light: a manufacturing PMI of 49, signaling contraction—the lowest in two years. No shock, considering their ongoing trade war with the U.S., which seems to be giving the global economy the flu.
On the political front, Trump celebrated his 100 days in office with a campaign-style detour to Detroit, throwing shade at Fed Chair Jerome Powell while declaring the economy in perfect health (despite the worst market performance since Nixon’s early days). He promised tax cuts, again, while doubling down on trade threats. Powell, of course, is just trying to survive the week.
Oil briefly dipped under $60 as markets considered the broader implications of economic warfare, gold sits at $3,311, and Bitcoin hovers around $95,000—looking resilient despite the madness.
As for corporate earnings, Starbucks missed on sales due to weak U.S. demand, Pfizer beat on EPS but saw revenue fall, and Visa continues to rake in profits as Americans keep spending like inflation isn’t real. Novartis crushed it but got no love from the market because apparently, +22% net income just isn’t sexy enough.
In short: chaos remains king. Markets seem oddly calm on the surface, but under the hood, it’s still all about tariffs, Trump tweets, and the fantasy that maybe—just maybe—some clarity will come today. Don’t hold your breath.
Enjoy the ride, and see you tomorrow for more market mayhem.
April 28, 2025 - Broken Supply Chains, and the DC CircusHello everyone, it’s April 28, 2025. The week ahead promises to be spectacular (or a complete disaster) depending on which way the wind blows out of Washington. So far, the futures are down about 0.6% this morning, as everyone’s trying to cut risk ahead of a week crammed with Big Tech earnings ( NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:META ), a mountain of macro data (PCE, GDP, ISM, jobs), and of course, the never-ending Trump tariff soap opera.
On the US politics front, Trump stayed uncharacteristically quiet over the weekend, no new bombshells. But whispers about “talks” with China surfaced, without any real confirmation. Meanwhile, several countries are supposedly rushing to negotiate tariff deals with the US. Expect headlines (and chaos) throughout the week.
Supply chains are starting to crack. Container traffic from China to the US has plunged 60%, and if deals aren’t made by mid-May, we could be staring down empty shelves and layoffs in transport and retail sectors. Think “Black Friday” without anything to buy.
Meanwhile, the drama at the Fed continues. Kevin Warsh, still salty about not replacing Powell, attacked the Fed’s “media circus” style, blaming it for post-Covid inflation. Warsh wants the Fed to go old-school: shut up, protect the dollar, and stop playing superhero. No forecasts, no endless press conferences. Just cigars and silence.
On the macro side, this week’s economic data could turn into a horror show: weak jobs numbers, soft GDP, slowing PCE, all raising the probability of recession. If that happens, expect markets to start begging the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later.
Assets snapshot:
• BLACKBULL:WTI : $63.36
• OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,307
• INDEX:BTCUSD : $94,000
In short: expect maximum volatility, endless surprises from DC, and a market that could spin on a dime. Stay sharp, stay skeptical, and brace for anything.
3 Oversold Stocks Poised for a Rally – MAS, IQV & TMOBelow is today’s SmartApingAI snapshot of three highly oversold names showing early signs of a rebound. Scroll down for a quick refresher on each company’s fundamentals, key technicals, and what makes them attractive at current levels.
1. Masco Corp ( NYSE:MAS )
What They Do:
Masco designs, manufactures and sells a broad range of home-improvement and new-construction products, including faucets, cabinets, hardware, coatings and architectural products.
Customers:
• Homeowners tackling renovation projects
• Professional contractors and builders
Income Source:
Primarily through the sale of mid-range to premium fixtures, cabinetry systems and paint/coatings.
Geographic Footprint:
• ~85% North America
• ~15% Europe
Product Pricing:
Mid-range to premium, with strong brand recognition in kitchen and bath fixtures.
SmartAping AI Model Target Price:
$81.36
Technical Snapshot:
• Broke below—and then bounced off—the $57 weekly support zone
• Now trading at $60.42, up from the intra-week low
• WiseStrat Macro ASI: deeply oversold at –120, turning bullish
• WiseStrat Micro ASI: still bearish, suggesting cautious position sizing
Why Watch:
Home-improvement spending has held up despite moderating housing starts, and MAS’s disciplined balance sheet and dividend yield (~2%) make it a compelling recovery play if consumer confidence picks up.
2. IQVIA Holdings Inc ( NYSE:IQV )
What They Do:
IQVIA provides data analytics, research services and technology solutions that power clinical trials, market research and real-world evidence for the life-sciences industry.
Customers:
• Pharma and biotech firms
• Medical device companies
• Healthcare providers and payers
Income Source:
Subscription and project-based fees for data platforms, consulting and trial execution services.
Geographic Footprint:
• 50% Americas
• 30% EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa)
• 20% Asia-Pacific
Product Pricing:
Variable, tailored to project scope—from high-volume data subscriptions to multi-million-dollar trial outsourcing contracts.
SmartAping AI Model Target Price:
$275.35
Technical Snapshot:
• Dropped below the $137 weekly support last week, then staged a relief rally
• Currently at $150.28
• WiseStrat Macro ASI: extremely oversold at –127, now in bullish reversal mode
• WiseStrat Micro ASI: turning positive, hinting at building short-term momentum
Why Watch:
With global R&D spend on track to exceed $250 billion this year, IQVIA’s blend of analytics and CRO services is in high demand. A seasonal uptick in trial starts could catalyze upside toward our $275 target.
3. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc ( NYSE:TMO )
What They Do:
Thermo Fisher supplies scientific instruments, reagents and software used in research, diagnostics, manufacturing and safety testing across life-sciences and industrial markets.
Customers:
• Academic, government and corporate research labs
• Clinical and diagnostic facilities
• Biopharma manufacturers
Income Source:
Sales of equipment (from a few hundred to multi-million dollars), consumables, and service contracts.
Geographic Footprint:
• ~50% North America
• ~30% Europe
• ~20% Asia-Pacific & other
Product Pricing:
Ranges widely: entry-level lab kits to high-end sequencers and complete lab automation lines.
SmartAping AI Model Target Price:
$645.83
Technical Snapshot:
• Tested and held the $412.73 weekly support last week, bouncing back to $424.24
• WiseStrat Macro ASI: oversold at –129, now showing bullish tilt
• WiseStrat Micro ASI: still negative, cautioning potential retest of $412
Why Watch:
Strong long-term secular drivers—gene therapy, personalized medicine and diagnostics—remain intact. A washout in biotech funding fears has left TMO trading at a rare discount to growth peers.
April 25, 2025 - Trump’s Tango, Tech, and Insider DramaHello everyone, it’s April 25, 2025. We’re closing in on Trump’s 100-day mark back in the White House, and if there’s one word to sum up his impact on markets: chaos. With 137 executive orders signed already, he’s turned global markets into a high-stakes rollercoaster though this week saw signs of recovery, confidence remains fragile, and volatility is still running the show.
The main trigger? You guessed it: Trump and his tariff diplomacy. After weeks of U-turns, threats, and NYSE:TWTR meltdowns, he’s finally announced that talks with China have begun. That was enough to send the AMEX:SPY up 2%, pull the CME_MINI:NQ1! out of correction territory (+2.74%), and ignite a 5.63% jump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, even though it’s still miles below its all-time high.
OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting at $3,332, BLACKBULL:WTI hovers around $63.21, and INDEX:BTCUSD has skyrocketed to $93,200. Not bad for a week that started in total disarray.
Now here’s where things get fishy: US indices started climbing before Trump’s announcement—classic “somebody knew something.” Insider trading? Just your average Thursday. And while Trump claims talks are underway, the Chinese side played coy, denying any ongoing negotiations. Either someone’s lying, or the talks are happening over dim sum in DC.
Beyond geopolitics, NASDAQ:GOOG crushed earnings expectations and added a juicy dividend and GETTEX:70B in buybacks, exploding 6% after-hours. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:INTC flopped—flat profits, poor outlook, and a CEO trying to turn cost-cutting into a growth story. The market wasn’t buying it: down 5.7% after-hours.
NYSE:NOW , though, is living its best life. Strong results, AI momentum, and federal contracts boosted shares 15%. Other names like NASDAQ:PEP , NYSE:PG , and NASDAQ:AAL warned on the future thanks to—you guessed it—political and economic uncertainty.
On the macro front, ECONOMICS:USIJC (US jobless claims) ticked higher, inflation seems to be cooling, and if next week’s PCE and employment data confirm the slowdown, the Fed might just blink and cut rates in May. Market hopes are pinned on Powell holding steady—unless, of course, Trump decides to live-tweet through it.
Futures are up 0.37% ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) this morning, signaling optimism—possibly misplaced—in Trump’s “friendly” overtures toward China. Let’s just say we’re one golf game away from another market tantrum.
Enjoy your weekend, stay alert, and cross your fingers for a quiet Sunday tweet-wise.
April 24, 2025 - Not getting fired (yet)Hello everyone, it’s April 24, 2025, welcome back to another wild episode of “Trumponomics: The Market Edition.” For the second day in a row, global markets are on the rise, and yes, it’s all thanks to the Trump playbook: slap tariffs everywhere, terrify the market, escalate tensions, then toss out a gesture of peace and voilà — rally mode engaged.
The key word this morning? Relief. Relief that Trump might chill out on China, and Powell isn’t getting fired (yet). But let’s not pop the champagne too soon — anyone betting against a weekend plot twist from Trump hasn’t been paying attention.
In the US, the Fed’s Beige Book (a.k.a. the economy’s mood diary) painted a picture that’s… let’s say “limp but not lifeless.” Only 5 of the 12 Fed districts saw growth, and even that was more “walker with tennis balls” than Olympic sprint. Inflation? Creeping in slowly, with companies sharpening their price-hike pencils just in case Trump cranks up the tariff heat again. Employment? Not awful, but nothing to brag about. And uncertainty? It was mentioned 80 times in the report. That’s not a joke.
Meanwhile, auto sales are up — not because the economy’s booming, but because Americans are panic-buying ahead of expected price surges from more tariffs. Business travel is tanking, and tourism’s taking a nosedive. Welcome to the “Not-quite-a-crisis-but-definitely-not-fine” States of America.
As for OANDA:XAUUSD , after a brief flirtation with $3,500, it’s cooled down to $3,337. BLACKBULL:WTI is holding at $62.86. And INDEX:BTCUSD ? It’s back in the spotlight at $92,000 and climbing — yes, people are talking about it again, which should tell you something about the vibe out there.
On the politics front, Trump hinted that the tariff moratorium could be revoked for some countries, and he’s back to pestering Powell to cut rates. Classic. Meanwhile, Wall Street is just trying not to get whiplash. NYSE:BA numbers came in better than feared, and NASDAQ:NVDA supply chain via INX looks solid despite wild swings.
Today’s economic calendar includes durable goods data and jobless claims in the CME_MINI:ES1! are down 0.2% — looks like investors are just bracing for the next Trump curveball.
TL;DR: Markets are riding the Trump-coaster, gold cooled off, crypto’s surging, and America’s economy is wobbling but still upright — for now. Keep your helmets on.
EUR/GBP – Trendline Break & Retest: Reversal Confirmed?Technical Outlook:
EUR/GBP has broken above the descending trendline and is now retesting it from above near 0.8540–0.8560. This zone is critical — holding it confirms a trend reversal. If successful, the next upside targets are 0.8625 and 0.8680. RSI remains above 50, and MACD continues to support bullish momentum.
Fundamentals:
Dovish expectations from the BoE weigh on the pound. The euro gains support from improving inflation outlook and capital inflows. Interest rate differentials now favor EUR.
Scenarios:
📈 Main: bounce from 0.8540–0.8560 → move to 0.8625 and 0.8680
📉 Alt: break below 0.8540 → retracement to 0.8500–0.8480
Another market manipulation. It is spiraling out of control!I’m not here to express political opinions, but let’s be real—the Trump family launching meme coins, rugging retail investors, and manipulating markets is spiraling out of control.
💥 $TRUMP and $MELANIA were just the beginning.
Today, we witnessed what could be the biggest market manipulation in history, and it was executed with textbook precision:
Step one: float a fake news headline to test the market reaction.
Step two: publish a deliberately confusing statement where Trump says everything and its opposite.
Many misunderstood it as a “90-day tariff pause.”
🕛 The timing?
The announcement dropped at 12:30 PM EST—midnight in Asia, and 7 PM in Europe, when banks and institutions were closed.
🎯 Only the U.S. was awake and able to buy the pump.
Everyone else? Left sidelined.
No politician in modern history has manipulated global markets to this extent.
It’s turning Wall Street into a Las Vegas casino for the elite.
To make matters worse, Trump even tweeted a sarcastic:
“It’s a great day to buy stocks.”
🧨 Reality check:
He lowered current tariffs by just 10%
Hit China with a massive 125% tariff
Recession risk? Still on the table
Economic uncertainty? Worse than ever
You think China will just let this slide? Retaliation is coming.
What we're seeing is a nation burning its credibility while recklessly using financial power to create chaos.
🚨 If you think your money is safe in markets run by these people, think again.
This isn't trading anymore—it's Russian Roulette. Markets needs stability.
DYOR
Gold ETF(GLD) - Gold is the Safe Haven?Is Gold the safe haven from all the market turmoil? Looking at the chart, it would appear that Gold is unfazed by current market conditions. Price is still making All-Time Highs as price continues to swing above the 25(green), 100,(yellow) and 200(blue) day EMAs. Further fears in the Bond market may increase interest in Gold as a stable asset. What are you thoughts? What are some other assets that are defying 'gravity'?
BTC 3D Market BreakdownBitcoin is currently trading around $79,200 on the 3-day chart and is sitting just above the key 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from its most recent macro impulse. The chart shows a clear descending trendline acting as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the ongoing downward pressure on price. Until this trendline is broken and retested from above, market structure remains bearish in the mid-term.
After a strong rally to $108K, BTC was rejected near the 0.25 Fibonacci level at $93K. Since then, it’s formed a series of lower highs, confirming that bulls are losing momentum. The 0.385 retracement level, which aligns with the $85K region, has now acted as resistance multiple times, indicating a strong ceiling unless volume and price action shift.
Price is now hovering above the 0.5 retracement area (~$78K–$79K). If this zone fails to hold, Bitcoin is likely headed toward the 0.618 Fib level near $73,747. This level also aligns with the previous all-time high from November 2021, adding to its historical importance. While some buyers may attempt to defend that level for a short-term bounce, the real macro demand lies lower.
The green zone around GETTEX:64K to $61K is the highest confluence support area. It matches both the 0.75 and 0.785 Fibonacci retracement levels, and overlaps with the major accumulation and breakout structure from Q4 of 2024. If BTC trades down into that region, it would present a much higher probability bounce zone and a potential macro higher low — if bulls can defend it.
Until Bitcoin flips the descending trendline and reclaims $85K with conviction, the market structure favors downside continuation. A reclaim of $85K would be a significant signal for bullish momentum to return, especially if it comes with a breakout retest of the trendline. For now, however, the path of least resistance remains to the downside, with $69K and then GETTEX:64K –$61K as the next key support zones to watch.
In summary, Bitcoin remains in a corrective structure beneath its trendline. A move into $69K may offer a reaction, but the most meaningful support lies in the GETTEX:64K –$61K macro zone. Patience is key here, as buyers wait for either deeper value or a clear shift in trend.
Will the Fear Gauge Flash Red?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street's closely watched "fear gauge," is poised for a potential surge due to US President Donald Trump's assertive policy agenda. This article examines the confluence of factors, primarily Trump's planned tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions, that are likely to inject significant uncertainty into the financial markets. Historically, the VIX has proven to be a reliable indicator of investor anxiety, spiking during economic and political instability periods. The current climate, marked by a potential trade war and heightened international risks, suggests a strong likelihood of increased market volatility and a corresponding rise in the VIX.
President Trump's impending "Liberation Day" tariffs, set to target all countries with reciprocal duties, have already sparked considerable concern among economists and financial institutions. Experts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan predict that these tariffs will lead to higher inflation, slower economic growth, and an elevated risk of recession in the US. The sheer scale and breadth of these tariffs, affecting major trading partners and critical industries, create an environment of unpredictability that unsettles investors and compels them to seek protection against potential market downturns, a dynamic that typically drives the VIX upward.
Adding to the market's unease are the growing geopolitical fault lines involving the US and both China and Iran. Trade disputes and strategic rivalry with China, coupled with President Trump's confrontational stance and threats of military action against Iran over its nuclear program, contribute significantly to global instability. These high-stakes international situations, fraught with the potential for escalation, naturally trigger investor anxiety and a flight to safety, further fueling expectations of increased market volatility as measured by the VIX.
In conclusion, the combination of President Trump's aggressive trade policies and the mounting geopolitical risks presents a compelling case for a significant rise in the VIX. Market analysts have already observed this trend, and historical patterns during similar periods of uncertainty reinforce the expectation of heightened volatility. As investors grapple with the potential economic fallout from tariffs and the dangers of international conflicts, the VIX will likely serve as a crucial barometer, reflecting the increasing fear and uncertainty permeating the financial landscape.
Is Erdogan’s Gambit Destabilizing Turkey’s Future?Erdogan’s administration continues to engage in high-stakes geopolitical maneuvers by maintaining direct and indirect ties with groups designated as terrorist organizations. His government’s strategic alliances, notably with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), serve immediate military and political goals in Syria, despite significant international controversy and longstanding terrorist designations by the U.S. and other global actors.
This risky strategy has had a pronounced impact on the Turkish economy. Investors have increasingly shifted their capital from the Turkish Lira to the U.S. dollar, leading to a notable rise in the USD/TRY rate. Fears of further economic isolation and the looming threat of sanctions—which could cut off Turkey from critical European banking and trade services—have only intensified market instability.
The growing strains within NATO and shifting regional alliances are compounding these economic challenges. Erdogan’s pragmatic yet contentious foreign policy raises serious questions about Turkey’s future role within the alliance, as Western partners deliberate potential sanctions and other measures. Meanwhile, evolving dynamics with regional powers such as Russia and Iran add further uncertainty to Turkey’s strategic position and economic prospects.
