The RSI can help determine how far the correction can goWith the US continuing to increase interest rates and potentially being in a recession, it was surprising to see markets perform so well last week. However, with Powell seemingly inferring a softer stance, the S+P charted a decent rally.
Technically we continue to view the rebound as a bear market rally that has already reached the 50% retracement of the sell off since April at 4136.
So how far is the market likely to correct? This is a tricky one to answer, but I like to look at any convergence of resistance and Fibonacci retracement and the 9-period RSI can give vital clues.
When I look at the S+P I can see the June high at 4177.51, the 61.8% retracement at 4254 and the 200-day ma at 4344. With an RSI already at 71, my feeling is that the market will fail ahead of that 200-day ma!
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Markets
Ripple records $408 million sold in Q2TL;DR Breakdown
Swell ODL volume expanded 9x YoY during the last quarter of 2022.
In Q2, the blockchain organization sold more than $408 million in XRP tokens.
Be that as it may, both the cost and volume of the XRP declined in the midst of specific market factors.
Blockchain installment organization Ripple delivered its Q2 monetary report on Friday, itemizing an amazing development in exchanges and On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) volume, regardless of the new accident of the cryptographic money market.
Wave's ODL expanded 9x
Swell said Q2 2022 was a record quarter for its On-Demand Liquidity further extended past installment and conventional settlement administrations, subsequently raising the volume by up to 9x year-over-year. ODL is a liquidity stage that use XRP to work with minimal expense cross-line installments on RippleNet. Swell expressed the majority of the volume in Q2 came from depository streams and mass installments.
The organization additionally referenced that it sold $408.9 million XRP tokens in the past quarter through its ODL administrations, contrasted with the $273 million XRPs it sold in Q1 of the year. The report peruses that how much XRP sold during Q2 likens to around 0.47% of XRP's worldwide volume. At last, the expansion in XRP deals credits to the development and reception of ODL.
"Swell has kept on taking part in deals exclusively connected with ODL and these volumes have sloped up significantly as Ripple's ODL business extended all around the world."
Swell likewise noticed an enormous expansion in exchange counts. Per the report, the exchanges on the XRP Ledger additionally expanded to around 114.6 million, which represented $58.3 billion or 126.5 billion XRP in volume.
XRP value, the volume endures a shot
Regardless of the ODL's development, the cost of XRP and everyday exchanged volume endured a shot in the midst of the negative condition of cryptographic money and the more extensive resources market. XRP volume dropped by 22% QoQ, from a typical everyday volume of $1.1 billion to $862 million, per the report.
During the hour of composing, XRP was up more than 4% to $0.371 during the 24hrs time period. The market capitalization was at $17.9 billion from a coursing supply of 48.34 billion XRP tokens.
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Markets how to execute Quarters theory This is a trade example of how the Quarters theory trading system works with market session activities highlighted. We are looking at a 25 pip chart. Trading between 1.76 and .175 over the last 2 weeks we have seen 13 successful trades within a 10 cent range. I go over this system a lot because of its low risk high reward strategy of 1:4 1:10 and 1:100 very nice. If you want to find out more about how I use the system check out one of my video ideas or streams.
Gasoline Bearish Formation"Gasoline... breakfast of champions" - Joe Dirt
Consistent with our view of #Oil, gasoline shows us a beautiful bear wedge.
Are we all just expected to pay $4.50+ / gal of gasoline? This seems like a tall ask for the American consumer, considering prices are significantly elevated across most of the American ( & global ) economy.
Emerging markets getting beat up all around the globe
Commodities have started to selloff
Interest rates are rising
USD ripping higher
crypto bubble... popping...?
Let's see how it goes!
God bless!
BTC/USDT WEEKLY ANALYSIS JULY 2022So here is detail analysis of btc on weekly time frame BTC is trading in long term bearish trend and now currently trading at 19.4k with strong support 18.5k and 17.5k which is local Demand zone and 29k ATH Resistance and strong resistance of last upward trend at 23k . On breakdown from 17.5k market will be on the way towards deom 13.5k to 12.8k area.
here most important areas are 17.5k which needs to hold otherwise market will be towards 13k . and Resistance level 23.4k needs to break for the confirmation of new uptrend
AUDUSDQ1 0.7 - 0.675
Over the last 2 months this price point has seen
weakening buyer over time as we approach 0.675
expect a relief rally of sellers that have gotten in near the top of the quarter.
21 day
14 day Vwap
These show us the momentum of the chart has been to the downside
If we were wanting the best entry we would wait
till price gets closer to the 14 - 21 day Vwap and possible above
Corn Consolidates Ahead of USDA Report
Corn
Fundamentals: Corn futures have traded both sides of unchanged in the overnight and early morning session as prices consolidate ahead of end of month, end of quarter, and all-important USDA report. The range of estimates for acres comes in from 88.4-91.0 million. In March the USDA was at 89.5. The average estimate for US corn stocks as of June 1 is 4.345 billion bushels. In last year’s report we were at 4.111.
Technicals (September): Consolidation is the name of the game as we inch closer to the highly anticipated USDA report. With the market chopping around and not really going anywhere, many of our support and resistance levels remain unchanged. Resistance levels come in near 680ish and more significantly 700ish. The upper end would be a retracement of last week’s secondary breakdown point and represents the 100-day moving average, not to mention the psychological significance. On the support side, 645-652 ½ is the pocket the Bulls want to defend.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701****
Support: 645-652 ½****, 624-630****, 589 ¼***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Gold Teasing Bear Flag BreakdownGold flirts with the lower end of the bear flag at press time.
A UTC close lower would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend, represented by the falling channel.
Support at $1,787 (May 16) and $1,757 (Dec. 15 low).
Macro supports bearish case - Talk of ECB 50 bps rate hike in July + continued Fed tightening.
Soybeans Find Their Footing
Soybeans
Fundamentals: Soybean futures are higher this morning after yesterday’s crop progress report showed a drop in good/excellent conditions of 3%. Keep in mind that we are still 5% better than where we were at this time last year. All eyes will be on Thursday’s USDA report. The range of estimates for planted acres is 89.2-92.4 million, the USDA was at 91.0 in March. The average estimate for US soybean ending stocks as of June 1 is .954 billion bushels. Last year at this time we were at .769.
Technicals (August): Soybeans are higher this morning as the market works to retrace and recoup the losses from the big down day last week. In yesterday’s report we talked about our pivot pocket at 1533 ½, stating “If the Bulls are able to chew through this level, we could see a bigger relief rally take us back to the other breakdown points from last week, which are anywhere from 30 to 70 cents higher.”. With that in mind, we would not be surprised to see additional relief come into the market ahead of the USDA report on Thursday.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597***
Pivot: 1533 ½
Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1451*
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Corn Futures Test and Defend Significant Support Corn
Technicals: In yesterday’s morning report we wrote that the early morning weakness below the 50-day moving average (near 780), stating that it “opens the door for a potential retest of significant support from 747-753”. That support was tested and held to a T through the session and in the overnight/early morning trade. Now it’s up to the Bulls to defend it during the regular trading hours. One thing that might help is this week’s options expiration. There is a lot of open interest in the 750 strike, which may help the market consolidate, we talked about this in yesterday afternoon’s Tech Talk. Feel free to reach out with questions or to get these videos.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼***
Pivot: 778 ¼-784 ½
Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Sell AlembicAlembic Pharma weekly chart shows
RSI about to dive out of ascending trendline, signaling a continuation of the larger downtrend.
MACD about to flip bearish again
Lower highs on the price chart + support of 61.8% Fib under risk of being breached.
Sell at 705 target 678-663 stop above 725
Indexes and Cryptos under the pump so where to for markets now?The Morning Jumpstart Weekly Review 20/06/22...key levels to watch on major markets for the coming week!!
Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure and I expect that things will get worse before they potentially get better as we see cracks appearing in the underlying fundamentals of the asset class. Solana is taking an unprecedented step of freezing a large account that goes against the idea of a decentralised exchanges...and will potentially trigger shockwaves in the crypto space. Major share market Indexes are heading lower as traders unwind risk assets in the face of raising interest rates and continued high inflation.
The general trend for major Indexes remains down with the the USD in the driving seat....continuing to be careful into shares as prices could continue the trend lower.
Markets covered
US - DOW, Nasdaq and SP500
Europe - DAX and FTSE100
Asia - Hang Seng, ASX200 and Nikkei
FX - Dollar Index (USD), EURUSD , GBPUSD , AUDUSD and USDJPY
Commodities - GOLD , Oil and Copper
Crypto - Bitcoin and Ethereum
DIA Historical CorrectionsThis is a macro perspective on the cycles of DIA.
I want to focus on all time highs and the corrections that come after.
Currently DIA is sitting at about a 19% decrease from all time high value.
As the chart suggests, this market could drop even further. Don't be surprised if it does. These things happen.
Making Sense of the Chaos and Recognizing CyclesHey everyone!
Due to the recent financial sell offs, I've seen many panic and even claim "an end to financial markets". In fact, I understand their concerns. However, many of these individuals are newbs or have not taken a close look at the history of the asset(s) they hold. This is exactly why I have chose to begin posting again and would like to explore the long term history of a few assets and asset classes in an effort to calm any anxiety in others that I can. I will be focusing on historical market corrections.
Nothing of what I say or demonstrate is individualized financial advice to any degree. I am a speculator. You should not place trades based upon my analysis. You should not listen to a word I say. This is for pure entertainment value only and any losses you take is because you took that risk yourself. I am not liable for your actions.
Ok, let's do this!
A very long term look at SPX shows a volatile ride. The chart you see is a monthly log chart compressed to demonstrate as much of SPX as possible. As you can see there are many ups and downs. The data provided dates back all the way to the 1870s. So, this is where I will begin.
I will be adding pictures and details about the pictures in the updates or comments sections. It's been a while since I posted, please, be patient with me.
SPY short rally starting? I been charting SPY every different angle and time frame possible. Its next to impossible. lol but I did find this, which would make a case for a temporary bounce. I have 4 confluences. 1. SPY rally off the 200 sma on the 3day time frame. 2. Fibonacci extension from this wave down is a perfect 2.618 which lines up perfectly with 0.382 fib retracement from the previous low on march 23, 2020. 4. SPY is throwing a bullish hammer on the 1 day, 2 day, 3 day. If it does play out and rallies to the fib retracement line 0.236, that would make a total 10% gain, and 6% from where it is currently at 3966.
Daily Soybean Market Update (6.14.22)Soybeans
Fundamentals: Yesterday's weekly crop progress report showed the U.S. soybean crop is 88% planted, 70% emerged, and a Good/Excellent rating of 70%. There were no major surprises here. Yesterday's weekly export inspections report came in at 605,129 metric tons, well above the 365,455 last week and 141,320 we saw in the same week last year.
Technicals: Soybean futures broke through support from 1720-1728, this will now act as resistance. A close back above here opens the door for a potential run back at the contract highs and above. There is some trendline support from May 17th-June 7th that is holding well over the past 24 hours. A break and close below here could spark a drop back below $17.00.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1757 ½-1760**, 1775 ½-1784**
Pivot: 1720-1728
Support: 1690**, 1673-1679 ½***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Daily Corn Market Update: Fundamental/Techncial Analysis 6.14.22Corn
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report showed corn is 97% planted, 88% emerged, and Good/Excellent conditions at 72%. All within the range of expectations. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1,199,976. This was also within the range of expectations. Dr. Cordonnier increased Brazilian corn production by 3mmt to 110mmt. The USDA is at 116mmt, we believe the market is pricing in somewhere in the middle of those two estimates.
Technicals (July): July corn futures were lower yesterday, but finished off the lows, closing right near our pivot pocket, 769-773 ½. We are seeing some of yesterday’s weakness spill over into the overnight/early morning session following yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report. Technical levels remain largely intact. Resistance remains intact from 789 ½-790 ½. A continued failure to reclaim ground above here would mark a lower high, which would keep the door open for a potential lower low and a drop back to the 100-day moving average, 726 ½. The inflection point for a bigger drop would be a break and close below 747-753.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼***
Pivot: 769-773 ½
Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Daily Wheat Market Update (6.14.22)Wheat
Technicals (July): More of the same for wheat, as we continue to trade in a range, albeit a wide range. Wheat futures continue to chop around from about 1030 on the low end and 1100 on the high end. A breakout or breakdown from these levels could pop or drop the market 50 cents relatively quickly. Our bias is Neutral at the moment, but we would be looking to be lean bearish at higher levels. When we say higher levels, we are talking about a retracement of the May 31st breakdown point near 1150.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1142 ¾-1150***, 1200-1205 ¼**
Pivot: 1095-1102
Support: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.