¡¡Waiting for a number!!Hello trading community! We see on the US500 chart that the price faces significant resistance in the area between 4000 and 4100. On the daily chart, the US500 is in a descending channel. A continuation of the dollar's bullishness and no rate cut at its next meeting could wipe out investor bullishness and leave the index looking for new lows and support between the 3300-3500 level. Conversely, the other side of the coin prompts us to believe that a softer Fed policy will drive a sudden uptick in expectations for a positive end to the final quarter of the year. On the other hand, the market is pricing in a 75bps rate hike from the Fed and a 50bps cut in December (bullish outlook). Don't forget we have the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, the same outcome is expected (bullish outlook). The DXY is down 80% from the 111.60 level, but we do not rule out buyers entering the 112.4 technical level in the Fed preview. A level at which index bears can be activated against a bullish panorama of the market.
Markets
S&P plan for this week.Hi there. These are my thoughts on how the markets will play out this week. In my opinion this is another bear market rally that is targeting trailing stops between 3950~4000. We are below the 200ma on the 2D and below the cloud. Taking this into consideration and the fact that FOMC is Wednesday and will most likely raise rates another 75bps I can see the following scenario play out. Monday and Tuesday we climb slowly higher with a sharp thrust upwards and immediate rejection from the shorts stop loss area. Wednesday the markets continue their downtrend setting in stone that we are in a bear market. Drawing a fib retracement on the weekly from the most recent leg down puts the 1.618 target at 2972. If in fact we get there, this will take several weeks to hit.
Thanks for your time and good luck out there.
Market up on GM, UBS, KO earnings Coca-Cola shares rose 2.9% in the premarket after the beverage giant’ third-quarter earnings and sales beat Street forecasts. The company also raised its full-year outlook as demand remains steady even as it has raised prices to make up for higher expenses.
General Motors
(GM) – GM shares rallied 4.4% in premarket trading after the automaker reported a better-than-expected third-quarter profit, helped by rebounding sales. GM also said supply chain constraints are easing, allowing it to increase inventories on dealer lots.
General Electric
(GE) – GE jumped 4.2% in premarket action even though its earnings fell short of forecasts. The company cut its full-year outlook as it works its way through supply chain issues and higher costs. GE’s revenue was stronger than expected, as was free cash flow.
UPS
(UPS) – The delivery service’s shares rallied 4.4% in the premarket following a mixed quarterly report that saw earnings beat consensus and revenue fall short. UPS was helped by expanded profit margins as it raised prices.
UBS
(UBS) – UBS jumped 5.1% in the premarket after the Swiss bank posted better-than-expected quarterly results, helped by a jump in customer cash inflows to its wealth management business.
SAP
(SAP) – SAP rose 3% in premarket action after the German business software company reported upbeat quarterly results, helped by strong growth in its cloud business. SAP also confirmed its full-year outlook.
Logitech
(LOGI) – Logitech jumped 7% in the premarket after the maker of computer peripherals maintained its current full-year guidance, which was reduced in July. Logitech has seen sales cool off following a long period of elevated demand spurred by the pandemic.
Qualtrics
(XM) – Qualtrics surged 9.6% in the premarket after the maker of customer feedback software reported better-than-expected quarterly results and lifted its full-year forecast.
Approaching the 2022 downtrend on EUR/USDI suspect success or failure at this downtrend will be key!
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
EURJPY D1 - Short SignalEURJPY D1 - Daily timeframe analysis here following yesterdays daily close which failed to breach and set new highs. Strong bullish daily candle, but hoping for a rejection candle here to take price back down towards that 144 handle, healthy 300 pip range possible due to unfold.
btc/usdtBitcoin is in a bad shape which it means cheap BTC.
Death Cross can spot the bottom based on history. Of course I can get wrong and BTC do the opposite.
The right mindset is to be aware of both scenarios.
And this time the economy overall is looking weak.
Once Macro will improve, the BTC price will increase.
Everyone is expecting lower prices for BTC right now and calling road to 10-12-14k.
Usually when the majority is bearish the markets are doing the opposites.
!!! Not financial advice.
Tesla earnings are everything tomorrow!Traders,
Do not underestimate an earnings miss on Tesla tomorrow. Earnings est. is $1.00. If missed:
1. It could trigger the start of the massive bearish H&S pattern.
2. It will bring down the Nasdaq with it.
3. Nasdaq will bring down other indices like the SPX.
4. SPX coming down could break its critical support that has held up thus far.
5. Investors tend to correlate stocks like Tesla to crypto. An alarming report can levy more significant damage to bitcoin and crypto than its already incurred.
In my view, it is critical Tesla does not break and confirm the break of its neckline here over the next few days! Earnings must be hit and the $212-$215 pps MUST hold or it could mean trouble. Watch this closely!
Stew
Ice cream 🍦😱 (I scream, You scream) President Biden said the US economy “is strong as hell”.
“I’m concerned about the rest of the world,” he added. “The problem is the lack of economic growth and sound policy in other countries.”
Small news:
-Biden disagrees with British Prime minister's FAILED attempt to 'pivot' and ease monetary policy against the stream and against inflation worries.
US president Joe Biden called Liz Truss’ abandoned tax cut plan a “mistake" as he visited an ice cream shop in Portland.
The criticism was unusual - US presidents are not known to slate the domestic policy decisions of one of their closest allies.
“I wasn’t the only one that thought it was a mistake,” Mr Biden said to reporters at an Oregon ice cream shop. He had made an unannounced stop there to promote the candidacy of Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Tina Kotek.
“I disagree with the policy, but that’s up to Great Britain.”
Big News:
- Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden
Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook
- What happens when dollar gets too strong?
Visitors from abroad will find the prices of goods and services in America more expensive with a stronger dollar. Business travelers and foreigners living in the US but holding on to foreign-denominated bank accounts, or who are paid incomes in their home currency, will be hurt and their cost of living increased.
There are pros and cons to a stronger dollar
- Stronger dollar clearly affects the buying power of US's allies.. Europe, England and Japan can not happy with their 'weaker' currencies. Especially when they need to pay ridiculously high prices for energy (paid in US Dollars off course)...
Not so good Mr President. There needs to be balance and at this moment there is not.
What if things get worse? Can the dollar rise even higher?
Yes it can..my chart shows the price in an ascending channel with strong support at 110.7 and a resistance at 119.4
If that level breaks higher we could see even 166..and that would be a GUARANTEED disaster.
Let's not forget about the geopolitics:
US agenda was to cut-off ties of EU and Russia and this has happened. It's a priority for the US (some say) but not necessarily for most European nations. Especially when the 'Russian Bear' is in full action mode in Ukraine without any signs of a happy end in the near horizon.
The priority of the US should be to care for their allies. Or the risk of losing the US Dollar's status as the World's exchange currency could stop being...
He expects everyone else to Rate Hike but a lot of voices are calling for a slower pace, given that Ukraine war poses more dangers.
Just some thoughts for Mr Biden.
Ice cream or 'I scream You scream, we all Scream' ? It looks like the second at the moment.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
(PROJECTION: I see one hike coming up and then a big time break. No easing buy def slower pace hikes. Once Ukraine situation can be resolved diplomatically we can expect a good rebound but that will not be happening in the next 2-3 months...this will be a cold winter and the more the US dollar rises the worse things will become. Dollar might drop soon, this could be time)
BTCUSDT Final Support Stages - LONGUpdate to BTC/USDT next Weeks forecast
From our analysis it appears that although there is a chance of price retracting to 18,500 mark.
In overall judgement the chance is so small ,considering the last weeks' green hammer candle close and this weeks close above last weeks open.
With almost 100% certainty market is going to take another sharp Bull run on Monday towards 21,500 mark and current support shall remain entrenched @ 18,900 mark.
BTC - Inverted Chart - 25-30K incomingAscending wedges have historically resulted in a bearish breakout a MAJORITY of the time, descending wedges have historically resulted in a bullish breakout a MAJORITY of the time.
The chart speaks for itself. We are over extended to the downside, expect upside soon if the DXY double tops or struggles to move above the 114 area.
S&P is seeing reversal from MAJOR supportWe saw the S&P reverse yesterday by almost 3% in one day! Not only was this a key day reversal/a bullish engulfing candle but the fact that we are seeing this market charting that kind of reversal from such a key zone on the chart is we think critical.
We have the 200-week ma, the 55-week ma and long-term Fibonacci retracement all coming in around the 35000 level and the low this week has been 3491.
If you have been selling this market, you might want to take those profits because I think this thing is going to bounce!
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Fundamental BTCUSDT Pair Analysis of 2022 Last Quarter phaseOur market analysis shows that we have reached end of the BTC-DEAD cycle period for BTCUSDT pair .
Green line indicates strong oversold consonant with blue line which indicates demand for SHORT positions in the market is reducing proportionaly.
The symmetry alights over weekly period for Price Action of the Asset hence indicating strong market reversal is imminent
We expect sharp rise to 20,500 mark within couple of days, then slight retraction to 19,300 level and next pull towards 25,000 whereby new support levels will be established for long term bull market.
We also expect altcoins to follow similar pattern as mentioned and gold commodities to take inverse pattern as usual.
US TECH: Would you like butter on that toast?When US Tech stocks were heading in a northbound trend, nobody had a problem in 'predicting' anything.
Now we see the emergence of a death cross, and folk are struggling to believe what's happening. At each major bearish rebellion in the bear trend, there are shouts of hope.
Even slight increases in unemployment are now a cause for hope. Because hopesters 'know' that poor employment is a sign that inflation is being beaten. And if inflation is being beaten then the FED will back off with QT and interest rate hikes. Well of course it doesn't quite work like that - there is a more complicated relationship between employment and inflation.
So volatility in all markets drawing strength from US TECH has been up lately.
Two key things to watch:
1 - Amber daily ATR.
2 - 200 EMA in relation to daily ATR.
The markets have a lot of work to do before there is a clear reversal for the north. Most of them would have to break above a daily ATR and remain above for considerable time. No sign of that as yet.
Key resistance levels for GBP/USDHaving made a new all-time low, GBP/USD has been correcting higher for a little over a week and we take a look at the daily chart to determine the key area of resistance on the chart. We have a convergence of resistance in the 1.1650-1.1850 band, which represents the low that we got in July, the 55-day ma, the 38.2% retracement of the entire move down that we have seen this year AND cloud resistance.
It is a pretty dense band of resistance and we suspect that the correction higher will struggle here and we are alert to the idea of initial failure.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.