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Fade the dollar move, long the Mexican Peso. The dollar has recently broken out against a variety of EMFX crosses. Interestingly, the picture is not the same in the G10 space. With the 10Y yield breaking higher, the narrative is that foreign investors are suddenly attracted to US yield and the dollar receives a bid as a result. We believe it is simply due to rapid growth and inflation expectations changing in the US to the upside. This is bullish to the equity market and bullish risk in general. Add to the cocktail the mix of monetary and fiscal policy in most of the world, and you have tailwinds that will send EM markets higher. Banxico recently cut rates citing soft inflation, however, the majority of Mexico data remains rate-of-change positive. Technically, the dollar reached the 200day exponential moving average and broke out from the prior downtrend. We are fading this as a "fake" breakout. Moreover, we wouldn't be surprised to see dealers hedging gamma above the 20.50 level, causing the slight overshoot. We enter long MXNUSD at 20.80, with a stop at 21, targeting a return to 19.54, where we will book most of the position, and keep SOME in case we see a follow-through downside break.
Short
by MT-Macro
A retail shakeout would be quite the rodeo wouldn't it? (DJI)I am watching for another potential shakeout before our parabolic run and repeat of the roaring 20s Not personally even trading this move but I am trading cryptocurrency and they both dropped together in the COVID panic of 2020. what if we see another flash-crash? are you prepared for such an event? Take it for what it's worth since I'm not trading the DOW personally here but that can also be another reason to consider my less biased view. Drop or no drop I do expect a lot more upside before another repeat of 1929 BUT it is coming and WILL happen maybe even exactly 100 years from the last one in 2029. Stay profitable my lovely traders/investors. - Dalin
TVC:DJI
by High_Altitude_Investing
6
💰🧧 Year of the Metal OX 🐂 🏮❤️💰💰💰 (1961 reloaded?)Happy New Year of the Metal Ox to everyone.💰🧧 This is a YIN metal year, which is expected to be less volatile than the crazy Yang metal year of the Rat that just left us behind. Last Metal Ox year was back in 1961. Interestingly that was a year of recovery after a recession in 1960! What a coincidence, really. Well, there are a lot more coincidences that I will cover in the next video ideas here at Tradingview and also will take a look at some hand-picked assets that i will be looking at. Hope you enjoy the video and remember: I am not a Financial advisor, just sharing with you my love and ideas. Maybe this year we all need to be more 'Investors' than 'Traders' but make sure money doesn't come first in your life. The most important things money, can't buy; so be nice and work hard and the Ox will hel p you succeed this year. FXPROFESSOR 🐂 🏮❤️💰💰💰
SP:SPXLong
by FX_Professor
1
Brazilian real is a buy here. Buy a basket of EMFX vs the USD Coming into the new year, the reflationary trade was working quite well. In January, we saw a period of heightened volatility that stressed emerging markets. Brazil was no exception. That said, the weak dollar trend looks likely to resume in the next few months, after the positioning shake-out that we saw in January. Many hedge funds are still on the sidelines and scared to commit capital to risk-assets. They will be forced to do so in March when performance benchmarks come out. EMFX and commodity exporters should continue to perform strongly as the US pursues the largest stimulus package in history. Recently, the USD looks on the verge of breaking out to the upside, though I would much rather fade this move with a tight stop. In Brazil specifically, the likelihood of Selic rates being raised increases the chance of currency appreciation. There are no real organic sellers above 5.40. The risk/reward is for the BRL to rally significantly from here.
Short
by MT-Macro
6
AAVE in price discovery - LONG OPPORTUNITY (UPDATE)Update on AAVE. Congrats if you took profit at the T1 on my last AAVE chart. AAVE had a healthy pullback, but I think their is still gas in the tank. If you look I readjusted the fibs and it retraced from the 1 fib level to the .786 which is a good spot to buy. The RSI is also bottomed out. This is a buy imo. You can wait to see if it goes to the .618 at $357ish but I think that’s unlikely. Also if you look at the declining volume on that move from the top down you can see there’s declining volume on a downtrend which you can interpret as less sellers are selling at declining prices. I set a stop at the bottom of the last wick. T1 - $545 (R/R : 2.29 ) T2 - $675 (R/R : 5.13 ) T3 - $748 (R/R : 6.62 )
Long
by c4iv
South Africa is a fundamental buy #EZASouth Africa is one Emerging Market economy poised for success given the recent dollar weakness. Today's retail sales data, +2.6% YoY vs 0.4% last month proves sequential acceleration in the macro data. Moreover, the noise around Eskom and SAA has been going on for years now and is merely noise. The only cause for concern would be a further downgrading of the Sovereign Bonds, which doesn't seem to be on the near term horizon. Naspers makes up 25% of the ETF, and with it's holding of Tencent in China, it should perform well given recent macro inflections out East. Recent Chinese PMI and output upticks prove the current reflationary theme being played out here in Q1 2020. Technically, the symmetrical triangle looks poised for a breakout or breakdown. Given the fundamental picture, I believe there is great risk/reward to the upside.
AMEX:EZALong
by MT-Macro
Should you avoid trading on inauguration day?Tomorrow morning the USA will switch presidents. We can expect violent protests just like 4 years ago when Trump was sworn in. But does this symbolic day represent a risk, and should we stay away from the markets? My own (FX) trading has been pretty slow for 2 months following the US elections in early november, I think there was no conviction in any price action because of USA election uncertainty as well as Brexit, the pound gapped up over a weekend, down over another weekend, the market was not sending any clear signal to me, it was behaving like a lunatic and I avoided the pound. What usually happens? Looking at the past presidential changes, I noted the DJI gains and losses, I skipped the 2 vice-president presidents that were not sworn in after being elected. There were all small days except the Obama one but even that one was not that crazy and it was in the direction of the trend. There were no crazy gaps, nothing out of the ordinary for the past 70 years, both in the US stock market & Forex. The craziest gap the EURUSD ever had was after the 23 April 2017 which was France 1rst round of presidential elections. The result ended in Macron and Marine Le Pen going to the second round. The 21 April 2001 Jean-Marie Le Pen was in the second round and he's way more nationalist and authoritarian than his daughter, and the market did nothing crazy back then... But this time participants were "worried of risk". Perhaps because of Brexit and also the world has become way more globalist since then. 3 years later that gap was the bottom... Could there be a surprise? The election uncertainty is over and we got an idea what Biden plans are although its not that clear he went from being against big spending and medicare for all to being pro it then against I think? Will Biden stay president or let Kamala Harris take his place? He said if they disagreed he'd get sick and retire. I don't really know anymore, so I think anything could happen. Biden contradicting himself plus the US situation and Europe too leads to a sort of permanent uncertainty compared to 2017-2019. That period had the "trade war" and "hopes" but that was not uncertain, the same thing repeated itself over and over. On Trump's side, he said he exhausted all legal options and left it there. Terrified congressmen that were clueless 3 weeks ago (what a surprise! The capitol protest was not predictable at all!) got 30 thousand soldiers to protect them, under-reacting followed by over-reacting, typical. So whoever was not sure what would happen can now be pretty sure there won't be a coup. The FBI even looked into the soldiers I think. Anything is possible but I really don't think anything special will happen here. Trump die-hard supporters always think he has a master plan, a trick up his sleeve, but they do not manage big money. What do I think will happen? I expect a smooth transition, with protests just like in 2017, so nothing new, and the previous opposition now in power to continue their impeachment, then crackdown on free speech, and then act surprised when it backfires horribly on them 😂 (Did you know Rudy Giuliani tried banning "hateful anti-religion" art when he was mayor of New York?) It's really funny to see how clueless everyone is, and how it seems like they try their hardest to pave the way for a fascist government. Support of abortion will be hate speech and severely punished, gender stuff will be hate speech, and so on. Their crackdown on "hate speech" will backfire so hard it will be hard not to laugh. I can guarantee this with 99.99% certainty. There is no new info (unless we get a big surprise) so why would markets do anything "special". This is only my opinion not a risk management recommendation, I just personally think there is no reason to stay away (or hedge risk) tomorrow.
by MrRenev
1
GBP/AUD short 200 PIPS PREDICTIONPRICE action is stalling in this resistance area . if we see further rejections when markets open then we can take a nice short position for 200 pips+ if price does not make more rejection then we will not enter. dont be hesitant and enter the trade without seing further price action especially in the lower time frames. suggestion: wait for a 15m trendline break , look for lower swing highs. wait for london session and see where and how the technicals align together. if price keeps pushing further up without rejections then do not enter just be patient.
Short
by KibukCapital
Market Update...USD edges higher in quiet trade as markets consider US stimulus, Brexit, virus. CAD modestly softer versus the USD, but intraday technicals are supportive. EUR holds relatively firm above 1.22, German Consumer Confidence sours. GBP softer as EU rejects UK offer on fish, Brexit talks grind on. JPY little changed, CHF out-performs on soft risk mood. AUD slides despite better-than-forecast 7% rise in Nov Retail Sales. The Euro is attempting to consolidate on the 1.2200 handle vs the Greenback after yesterday’s swoon below the round number and through technical support, with decent option expiry interest adding more layers of support given 2.3 bn at the strike and a further 1.1 bn at 1.2150. Meanwhile, the Loonie is still keeping an eye on crude prices before more Canadian data, albeit rather stale today and tomorrow compared to Xmas Eve (October average earnings, monthly GDP and November building permits respectively). Elsewhere, the Pound has regained a bit more composure following its extremely volatile start to the week, with Cable back near 1.3400 and Eur/Gbp pivoting 0.9100 after UK PM Johnson’s fishing concession and talks between himself and French President Macron aimed at unblocking the cargo route between Britain and France. However, reports that the latest offer on fisheries will be rejected by the EU has sparked another bout of selling in Sterling, in contrast to the Franc that is sitting tight just under 0.8850 and 1.0800 vs the Euro, in similar vein to the Yen keeping its head above 103.50, but likely to meet resistance at 103.00 in the form of 1.2 bn expiries.
by FTUKcom
8
#2 Trading weekMarkets opened higher with S&P futures moving towards the last high... What could this mean? Well, technically speaking we could see a possible double top at the 3660 mark. And also, at the 4H chart a batman bearish structure! Will this happen? Probably not because since March the markets have been moving on strong fundamentals and though multiples seem to have led to overvalued price shares the markets seems to enjoy the printing FEDs money machine and honestly as long as there is liquidity the market will keep on going higher... until it bursts eventually, And it will, trust me! This is not sustainable because we are not currently having economic growth! Liquidity traps. Well... this said we are not planning to add positions to our portfolio but we will keep an eye on BABA and WORK. They seem to bee at great prices, or at least getting there! Follow us at our blog: 3psmarkets.blogspot.com
OANDA:SPX500USD
by nbonjardim