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Weekly Review: Awaiting The Elections (Read for Fundamentals) Close to the elections (3rd November) 1. American Election - Tension 2. Stimulus Package – Only positive impact 3. GDPs – 3rd Quarter (slightly better than give some confidence) 4. 3rd Quarter Companies’ earnings – so far, they´ve been good (mostly in tech) The logic thing would be for investors to keep taking profits ahead of elections and increased volatility. - What I expect will be small lateral moves, more inclined downside if anything, best option is to wait on the sidelines to see what happens in the elections.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by PepeMafia
Weekly Review: Clueless Territory (Read for Fundamentals)Will have a week similar to the last one, irregular. We had a decent run in the last couple weeks, and now the market is starting to feel a bit clueless, why? - American elections are approaching - Disappointing news about vaccines development - Bad Brexit negotiations - Worse control of the virus than expected However, the underlying sentiment of the market is bullish. - 2021 & 2022 will be years of +20% earnings growth and this will guide the markets This week: - Technology earnings results (which will be decent and sustain the markets) - Stimulus package talks will advance Markets will move laterally keeping an eye on both earnings and stimulus package while waiting for the outcome of the elections, if anything they will end slightly up this week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by PepeMafia
Weekly Review: Regaining Momentum (Read for Fundamentals)Current situation in the markets is being better than I expected. - It may lose some momentum with the time. Markets are starting to price in a stimulus agreement in the US. - Which, honestly, is still far away to happen Relationship virus – markets is starting to stabilise In the short term, what really matters now is the stimulus agreement followed by the US elections. From Tuesday, we´ll get some macro news. American macro is outpacing the rest of countries, Europe is not doing too badly and the UK is lagging behind. I believe this week will not be as bullish as the last one and with the US elections, approaching the markets will start to flatten and be more cautious.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by PepeMafia
EURNZD: Price Action & Potential Bullish Continuation Very important higher high higher close on daily on EURNZD. after a consolidation within a wide trading range, the price formed a higher low, and then it managed to break through a strong resistance cluster. now the broken resistance area serves as support. I will be looking for a reversal pattern on a lower timeframe to buy the market from it. next goal will be 1.81 (remember that the safest entries are always on lower t.f / be patient and wait for a signal there to get low-risk opportunity)
Long
by VasilyTrader
20
S&P 500 E-mini Futures playbook going into October/electionsHello! Introduction: I've been mainly trading ES and NQ for over a year now. Mostly I love to swing shorter term with options/futures contracts, but also sometimes scalp when the opportunity exists. Just giving a heads up that I'm also an degenerate who thinks, its possible to top/low tick the market quite often and I've had some success doing it. Now here's the analysis: Here's my playbook on ES futures going into October and also US elections (3/11/20). I think there's likely some upside ahead in the shorter term ( up to around 3410 level ), which is then followed by some chop/weakness in the overall markets, because of the uncertainty of elections. There's also likely gonna be a rally after the elections, because of all the protection market participants have bought and everyone likely agreeing that the markets are going to tank. You don't want to be part of that crowd because more than often they are gonna get caught on the wrong side of the market and have to chase into new highs. Look for the after-elections squeeze at around ES 3300 level . At least that's my theory using my knowledge in the markets (+2 years actively trading almost everyday and managing capital for other people). It's likely not gonna play out like that, but you get the idea. *turn date 20/11/* - All the options gamma getting rolled over by the dealers likely have positive effect on the markets rally into year's end/Christmas. If there's weakness into this date it's likely gonna get gobbled up in the next few days and squeeze all the shorts and make people on the sidelines chase! Good luck! Tonis
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by neilzo
17
Market Outlook - October 2020: Tracking History (Update)This month continues tracking today's market vs 14 historic declines of similar large magnitude occurring over the last 100 years. The current event is number 15. Starting at highlighted cross of MACD / PPO vs Signal line we compare today's recovery #15 to 14 previous events and their average behavior. The process uses weekly data. The current crossing event happened 5/18/2020. At present, now 19 weeks later, the path of event 15 is closely tracking the Average gain/loss of the prior 14 events. Average of prior 14 events: +14.04% after week 19 2020 as 15th event: +13.30% after week 19 Note the "Start" yellow arrow for comparison at the MACD /Signal crossing event on 5/18/2020 (Red arrow under PPO), which is after the market's bottom in March 2020. The same approach is used for comparison to 14 historic events. Thus the +13.30% gain from 5/18/2020 forward is incremental to substantial gain from March to May 2020. Same will be true for whatever outcome occurs by week 52 in 2021. The Average gain for the 14 historic events at week 52 (forward from time of MACD / PPO crossing) is +34.44%. I've shown a potential target area in May 2021 as "end" for week 52 using a second Yellow arrow. The 2020 event ranks in the middle of all previous events after week 19. The majority of the 14 prior events track higher as time passes, with those having a rapid start continuing to outperform the average of all 14. Periodic market changes forward can be monitored using technical measures for further guidance, such as RSI 14. I've added a red arrow (bottom) at today's date to highlight current RSI near the midline at 50 to reflect a healthy pullback in September 2020. A glance back at May - August 2019 shows similar pullbacks for support near RSI = 50 while PPO remained above 0 despite several up/down crossings of PPO/Signal lines. The trajectory of event 15 is tracking closely with history. Longs and those with patience will be pleased if it continues that path.
SP:SPX
by iamthewolf
Weekly Review: Remaining Bearish (Read for Fundamentals) Let´s order the weekly ideas: 1. Executive committee of the ECB will speak on Monday, maybe give some new updates about negative interest rates 2. Tuesday is about confidence indicators which I expect them to fall 3. Rest of the week is mostly about US employment and first debate on Wednesday between Biden and Trump Regarding the markets, new outbreaks have put the recovery on hold and the consumer sentiment is being affected and is becoming a warning factor for the markets in the short-term. Moreover, the vaccine discovery has been delayed. Facing the week, we have a weak market where none of the events of the short-term has the potential to turn around the bearish sentiment. - Advise to take a short position for the week. (Follow me for more weekly analyses and how to position your market portfolio regarding the upcoming elections)
SP:SPXShort
by PepeMafia
everything depends on DXY in last week , Dollar index movement make noise in all Major Trading instruments like XAU XAG EUR GBP Trading Setups , Traders and Trading institutions Feel more risk on the DXY New Price and a lot of them liquid their positions to Hedge The risk with more Liquidity Powell Testimony was Most Important Event Of the week and when he said there is no enough debt and cash to guaranty the 2% estimated Inflation rate DXY All major instruments Experienced High Volatility last night now , the last hope for Bulls Against Dollar is a rejection from the red trend line on DXY with Reliable Price Action sincerely AHZ
TVC:DXY
by Iceberg_Analytica