S&p 500 plumnit media to the side let just play technicals....weekly bearish engulfing (break of weekly TL) price has retraced and retested broken structure and has looked to form a lower high after todays daily candle. Fibs are plotted to show key levels and im anticipating a lower low that will have doomsday headlines on nbc lol
Markets
SPY levels for a reversalStill looking at more of drop in the market until we get a reversal back to the bullish side.
reasons:
1. the real economic impacts that the coronavirus is having. i think the US and Canada will be fine overall but i think the virus is going o further shut down Europe and Asia until the summer.
2. wallstreet and media folks have been pushing for a recession and bear market for the last few years
3. markets were extremely overbought and at all time highs
4. looking for price to bottom and reverse around the 200 day MA which coincides with support zone 1 on my chart ($300-305)
5. if that level fails then I'm looking at the Aud-sept 2019 lows as support level 2 which is also the 100% retacement of the Aug-sept low to the all time highs.
wishing everyone good trades!!!! Its a war out there in those candlesticks!!!!
Blackrock showing a correctionIt seems that there is some fear in the markets. That is why many investors choose to be in a selling possition.
After seeing the RSI and stochastic it is quite clear that the price is touching "oversold" values. Needless to say that there is a kind of trend in the indicators showing that the price will decrease a little bit more.
In addition, considering the complex scenario of the current market, I think that one possible buy zone will be the first resistence line. But if we see the pattern of the stock it seems to decrease until 400 aproximately.
Thanks for reading guys!
Apple’s panic, German disappoint, inflation dataThe main event of yesterday, which set the pace for the dynamics of the main financial markets, was Apple's announcement that the company was unlikely to be able to achieve its sales forecasts. The reason is, of course, the coronavirus epidemic in China. The news, in general, is obvious, but since the madness of total optimism has long owned the markets for a long time, investors did not want to face facts to the last - China's problems are problems of the whole world. And Apple essentially stated this.
Against this background, gold rose above 1600. However, we recommend buying gold for a long time and persistently and so far do not see any reason to change the vector. We note that the yen continues to remain in place. Although given the disastrous GDP data that we talked about yesterday, this is not strange. Nevertheless, sales of the USDJPY pair continue to be a promising deal, at least until it is below 110.20.
The epidemic, meanwhile, continues. According to the results of yesterday, +1900 newly diagnosed and about 100 deaths. So, although the growth rate of sick and dead is decreasing, it is still high enough to restrain China in its attempts to return to a full recovery in economic activity.
Another unpleasant news yesterday was the publication of the ZEW expectations index for Germany. The data came out extremely depressing: +8.7 points with a forecast of +21.5 points and a January value of +26.7 points. The largest economy in the Eurozone is rapidly following Japan towards a recession. For the euro, this was another blow that sent the single European currency to the lowest mark since 2017. In general, the euro situation looks worse than ever, so we continue to sell EURUSD, EURGBP and EURJPY pairs. There is still much to fall.
Data on the labor market in the UK came out pretty good yesterday: employment was higher than expected (+180,000 with a forecast of +148,000). In addition, the pound was supported by the new Minister of Finance of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, who announced that he would submit the budget, as planned on March 11. Recall that the markets expect him to expand government spending and investment. Overall, pound purchases remain one of our favorite trading ideas. But when buying a pound, do not forget about the key risk for it - news from the fronts of trade negotiations between the EU and the UK.
Today, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it will be interesting for inflation data for a number of countries, including the UK, the USA and Canada. Markets are now extremely vulnerable to inflation statistics, as rising inflation will be a signal for central banks to curtail ultra-soft policies.
Global Emerging Markets - Macro Outlook & CommentaryTraders & Investors,
We anticipate emerging markets to be vulnerable to a macro slowdown following the virus outbreak in China. Emerging Markets have a high dependency on Chinese demand and consumption which often creates a very strong correlation between domestic activity/trade and the performance of these markets.
The effects of the virus are prominent with analyst expectations of substantial drops in Chinese Q1 GDP, dovish positioning of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, sell off in Crude/Brent, gaps lower in Asian Equities and flows into risk-off assets.
Following the euphoric bull run in 17'/18' and pullback into fair value, we see price correcting for a move lower into our buyside floor and macro swing targets of 34.0x.
We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios
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We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform.
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Until next time,
Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
The markets illogicality the and trading anomaliesTuesday was another recovery day in the financial markets. In general, all this is rather strange and illogical. Markets first fall on the news of coronavirus and the epidemic. Logically and explainable, we will not go into details, and once again build logical chains of consequences. We did this in previous reviews. But upon the receipt of news that the epidemic is developing and becoming the largest in the last 20 years (the number of deaths exceeded 400, and the cases of 20,000), markets begin to calm down instead of continuing to work out a fundamental negative. This can be seen from the dynamics of the stock markets (Nasdaq updated new historical highs, and Tesla shares seem to have forgotten what gravity and common sense are), gold is declining, risky assets are recovering, VIX Fear Index is falling by more than 10% in day, and the Chinese stock market is adding 1-2% per day.
The main problem in this chaos is not to lose one’s head and not to succumb to general madness. Ultimately, you need to work not with current prices and their dynamics, but with facts. And the facts are that the epidemic has already caused enormous damage and will continue to cause it. Yes, the extent of the damage is unclear and perhaps it will be partially leveled in one way or another. But it is applied and this is a fact.
So, starting from the facts, we consider current prices in the financial markets to be abnormal. Based on the concept of “regression to the average,” prices will sooner or later have to return to their moderately adequate state. Accordingly, today we will buy gold with redoubled energy and volumes (for less aggressive traders, we can recommend selling a pair of USDJPY - the points for sales are simply excellent). Stock market sales remain our No.1 trading idea.
Oil sales (WTI benchmark) from 51.20 also seem to be a balanced transaction (stops above 51.20 with profits in the region of 45 or even lower make the transaction extremely attractive). At the same time, we are acting with an eye on OPEC activity. If the cartel decides to intervene, and oil goes above 51.20, then a stop coup is quite possible.
Speaking of other news and macroeconomic statistics, we note that today will be published US employment data from ADP. Although the focus of the markets is traditionally focused on the official figures, which will be published on Friday, strong deviations in the fact from ADP from forecasts can provoke significant movements in dollar pairs.
Juventus: Bearish trendToday I have a quite unusual stock. Instead of watching Italian football, why not watching some Italian stocks.
First of all we can see a bearish trend to the resistence line (1.1185). However, at this point it could reverse.
Points to consider:
- There is not high volume fluctuations (price will not increase/decrease drastically)
- Price quite below EMA 8 so the bearish trend will continue (also was proved with EMA 12 and the result was the same).
- RSI (important): it is trading at a very low value (30 approximately) so it could speed the decreasing trend up.
Long Saudi Arabia Given recent tensions in the Middle East, the Saudi Arabian ETF sold off and back-tested the previous resistance trend-line. The ETF has now rebounded off this trend-line, and looks bullish to continue to the July highs. Given the slightly weaker dollar macro picture, EM countries should be supported. KSA is a good play for a de-escalation in the Middle East and continued EM strength.
When the S&P500 catches the fluIn this screencast I look at the S&P500 on the 4H time frame only. I show how I estimate the probable direction (this does not mean prediction).
I give some information on why the markets are reacting to a low grade coronavirus called 2019-nCOV (same family as MERS and SARS).
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. If you make decisions based on this screencast and lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Bitcoin bulls looking for a support at $8,300 BTCUSDBitcoin bears broke right into the $8,500 - $8,300 support zone on Thursday, January 23 and stopped few steps below $8,400. They also tested the lower end of the corridor at $8,300. Sell pressure was starting to increase and on Friday, January 24, the price of BTC moved below $8,300 during intraday, just to recover in the evening. I expect the level to survive at least one more attempt, but if we don't see further activity from buyers, it will be broken, opening the doors for $8,000 and $7,800 eventually.
$8,300 as a lower end of the support zone is still at play.
$8,000 = Fibb 38.20
$7,800 - hard support, I cannot see a break there unless there is an extreme high seller volume
Trading volumes started to rise again on Friday and moved up from $27 billion to $30 billion.
Still stable above both 50 and 100-day EMAs
USOIL SET TO CONTINUE ITS UPTRENDWith the tension in the region and with oil broking above a Major resistance level and retesting, looking to continue buying OIL
GBPUSD LONG POSITIONGBPUSD has broken above the 1.30000 level and is currently retesting the level, a confirmation at this level will see the pair move up for about 300-7000pips
XRPUSDTso getting to key area of price approaching a double top area and have been consolidating in this zone for a while now so my bias with this trade that we break below this trend and have a bearish correction moving out of the trend we wait for conformation on any trade we take
risk correctly
WHEN MARKETS GO WILD! The DJI, S&P500, Australia200 and the DAX all went wild today.
No predictions in here. This is just the big picture of the daily time frame.
I have to say that I am totally surprised by the DJI pump north. This markets is highly overvalued something like 17-19 times that of fair value for stocks comprising it. I won't go on much longer about that, we've seen markets go wild before e.g. dotcom bubble.
Theory of curves and rising wedges failed here. These things do no rule markets.
The FED has given the implicit guarantee, and the big boys took the markets well north.
There's QE4 and soon QE5 coming up. So north is now the greater probability. I'm out because this is a highly unstable situation. Oh - but it's not QE because the FED says so - riggggghhtt! LOL.
The POP is coming - and everybody wants to know when. Look, it's like bad weather. You can see the storm clouds gathering but you just don't know when the heavens will open on you with a downpour.
More room to go for NASQ, will we see 10.000 Points soon?
In my opinion we got a whole lot of space to the upside and the fact that the majority of private investors are planing on a big crash, might take the market even higher.
The analysis on the chart would like to see the price reaching around 10.000 points in 2020. Cheap money will extend the growth.
Just my Opinion so make your own research and never forget to always be prepared for the unpredictable.
May the markets be with you
SPY: Crossroads
As of now SPY is still considered bullish. There are two distinct paths from here on through the holidays. If the stock doesn't break the ATH before December 27th, it is highly likely to go sub 300. Breaking the ATH in said timeframe could send the stock flying to 325-340. If the stock closes below the first guide-line, it is likely to cross the second guide-line as well (to touch down on 'b').
– two gaps still to be filled sooner or later (pan down for 2nd gap)
– the higher low isn't distinctive enough and is therefor rated 'neutral'
– current ADXDI shows assets leaving the stock and sell-volume picking up substantially, keep observing for changes
– RSI is neutral to bearish
– MACD returning to bearish to neutral
– stock is likely to reverse for a second leg before attempting another run-up (see RSI)
– PSAR series on the 4H has a bearish trajectory
Current indications point to a clear direction to be chosen soon. The weekly and monthly chart show a possible melt-down of the markets in spring 2020 (20-40% drop). This is echoed through the likes of Wilshire 4500 (market value) and the Dow Jones (industrial).
I'll be revisiting this post once every 1-2 weeks for updates.
(lines and connections have been averaged on step-line over log for higher precision)
SPY: UpdateWhile this 2y old broadening wedge is considered busted when using straight lines, you can always use parabolas to make minute fitting-adjustments in order to see where it's headed short-term. What you'll most likely see is a so called "late bust". When formations bust, they usually bust and reverse course right away. Some formations bust late and just appear to breakout creating either a double-top reversal , an inverted vV-reversal , or an adam & eve reversal (and a few other possibilities which are unlikely).
For the time being SPY is clearly bullish. All you have to look for is a breakout above parabola 'X' and a 'weekly' candle close above that line. Once this is out of the way it is highly likely to reach for levels of 320-335 and a maximum technical possibility of 390 (extremely unlikely since the formation is busted).
Now, closing above parabola 'X' would mean that the broadening wedge has ended, any formation (maximum 6-8 months old) that is built above that line (or trend line 'A' respectively), will ultimately decide the next "big move". This move, if downward , will have a loss-of-value potential of at least 18% (measured A to B), and 33% or more for a greater move (measured A to C). You should do your own study on how these formations usually reverse after a bust. Not the drawn-up charts, but the actual busted wedges. I've experienced some of them busting all the way below the lower trend line in one go, not kidding.
This chart is valid until mid next year, and when trading below 340. Remember, parabola 'Z' and below is your strong-sell signal. In a few weeks and a few more candles, we'll be able to look forward more precisely.
(Lines A and C are parabolas and not straight. The pink-dotted line is the 136MA (average of 20/50/200). Connections have been averaged on step-line over log for greater precision)
Keep an Eye on the VIX!As euphoria has come back into the markets, with earnings coming in strong and the global macro environment looking a lot less hostile, US equities have made all-time highs in recent trading sessions.
However, in spite of this trend, investors and traders should keep an eye on the VIX and market volatility.
The VIX has reached our "Bounce Back" zone, indicated by our Weekly Support levels of around $11.91 in price, and 42.07 in the RSI. The "Bounce Back" zone is an area where volatility creeps back into the market after a period of calm.
As can be seen in the accompanying chart, the VIX is currently at (or at the very least around) this level, both in terms of price and RSI - a level that usually sees a jump in volatility shortly after.
Thus, after a period of relative calm and fresh new highs in the markets, we would just caution investors to keep an eye on the $VIX, as a bout of market volatility may be overdue.
$IXIC $DJIA $DJI $QQQ $SPX $SPY $RUT
