Markets
$IEF Bond Rally FadingDespite the market chatter of rate cuts by the Fed at the end of July, it seems that one area of the market that is not paying much attention are US 10-Year Treasuries ($IEF as a proxy).
After posting an "Evening Star" pattern on July 3rd, US Treasuries have been selling off since. As can be seen in the attached chart, the RSI has been showing negative divergence in relation to recent price rises, indicating that investor sentiment is fading, despite prices marching to record highs. Furthermore, the price is fighting hard to stay within the FR100 at $110.40, indicating that it could fall out of this area any day now.
Going forward, it appears that the rally in US 10-Year Treasuries is fading, and caution investors to take heed in this space
GBPCAD - Attractive LevelsThe pair is standing near the price level (1.6360) and hit the low for the week of October 2017.
Tomorrow all traders are waiting the strong data for the both CAD & GBP and we can expect more new low near the level 1.6060.
My view per to the both Daily & Weekly Charts this is a good area to start the long buy GBP/CAD because the Weekly Chart should go up again and mark up a resistance near the level price (1.6850) then can continue going down again.
To find more about my trading plan includes the entries and targets, please visit the page (Markets Forecast) on the site (NAJJAR INVEST)
$XAR - Clear for TakeoffOne area investors and traders should take a look at is the Aerospace and Defense industry ($XAR as proxy), which is currently the best performing industry year-to-date (as of July 5th), generating 28.59%.
On a technical basis, $XAR is trading above all three EMAs, indicating strong price action at the moment. Further, its RSI as been steadily trending higher since the end of June, indicating strong market sentiment in this industry. Further, on a global macro basis, the industry has been helped by a rise in geopolitical tensions around the globe, with the most recent being tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Western powers.
If this trend continues, $XAR could hit $107.81 in a few weeks.
NFP, Trump's obsession, Morgan Stanley's recommendationsGetting ready for the NFP, Trump's obsession, recommendations of Morgan Stanley
The financial markets are having a torrid week. Financial market participants are concerned about the appearance of a trend that the market currently is following. The concern is about the statistics based on the US labor market outcome, which in the future might provoke the US economic slowdown.
Let's try to figure out what we should and should not be expected after the outcome will be published. It seems like nobody wants to undertake an in-depth analysis of the current state of the economy and labor market, a matter of reasonable inference from “how the forecast has been calculated”. The formula is, therefore, as follows: take the simple arithmetic average of the NFP index over the last couple of years, that is all. Such an approach practically guarantees that actual data will be different from forecast data. That in itself carries an opportunity for earnings.
NFP report outcome creates adverse expectations. We believe that the 160K figure is too optimistic according to the ADP outcome.
Since we are expecting poor forecast data, our trading recommendation is - sell the dollar. Moreover, the markets are concerned about possible US interventions against the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Recall, Trump supports the dollar devaluation idea. Last time the United States came out with interventions on the foreign exchange market was in 2011.
Recently, USD to YEN rate forecast has been sharply lowered by Morgan Stanley’s analysts: from 108 to 102 at the end of this year and from 98 to 94 at the end of the next year. Motivation - a sharp decline in profitability differential: the profitability of American assets decreases faster than the profitability of European and Japanese. Recall that it is not the first time we recommend selling USDJPY.
As for our other recommendations, we will continue to look for points for sales of the Russian ruble and oil. We are working with gold today with no clear without any preference for oscillator signals.
In addition, we recommend paying attention to USDCAD. The fact is that today, statistics on the labor market of Canada will be published. So in the case of a double positive or double negative, the USDCAD may be subjected to strong pressure (ascending or descending). The best option for trading, in this case, is trading on the news. 1-2 minutes before the news releases, we set pending stop orders in both directions (buy and sell) with 30 pips at that time and wait for the news to come out. Almost certainly the movement will be strong and unidirectional. That will lead to the execution of one of the orders and will make it possible to earn quite quickly without any particular risks.
Overall view of XAUUSD - Update of July 1stThe commodity has been on a continuous bull since the beginning of June's month, and settled on the resistance zone surrounding @1440.000. Prices are sideways and consolidating, waiting for a breakout. G20 meeting ended up with a series of agreements and negotiations, which might confirm and increasing odd of a bear pressure.
Possible targets: @1360.000 (+40.00 per unit or 4,000pips) if bearish trend confirmed or @1500.000(+60.00 per unit or 6,000 pips) if bullish trend confirmed.
Advice: Await for a confirmation.
Para Bolic GainsSo I drew this curve like a month ago and so far it has been pretty much correct. We'll see if it really stays like this tho.
Peaceful US and GDP data & Bitcoin is blowing a bubbleYesterday, a fairly clear signal from the United States was received by markets and China. The USA is interested in a peaceful outcome. The information that the United States has decided to postpone the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese goods (over $ 300 billion). Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said: ‘We were about 90% of the way’ on China trade deal and there’s a ‘path to complete this’. American companies found a way to circumvent the ‘Huawei’ ban.
Recall, we have advised selling gold at USD 1430-1435. So those ones who followed our recommendations would have earned good money.
The correlation between cryptocurrency prices reached 21% (!). We believe that there is nothing behind such growth and another price bubble will burst soon. Once again, we note that there is no logic in growth. A surge of optimism among buyers after Facebook “Libra” was announced is actually an odd thing. If Facebook had announced that Bitcoin is its reference currency, then yes, it would be possible to understand the current growth and even consider it reasonable. But we are talking about the emergence of a superpowerful competitor to Bitcoin, which will get the lion's share of the market and buying Bitcoin on this background is illogical at least. So we continue to recommend sales of key cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin primarily.
As for the macroeconomic statistics published yesterday, orders for durable goods in the United States were frankly failed (-1.3% with a forecast of -0.3%), and the trade balance also turned out to be much worse than experts' expectations ($ 75.5 billion against forecasts - $ 71.8 billion). Nevertheless, the dollar felt quite confident in the foreign exchange market.
However, today the situation might change. US WPF data might be unpleasantly surprised, and then the dollar simply will have no options than to decline.
Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis and the medium terms. As for gold, today we, perhaps, will work without obvious preferences, buying and selling gold on the intraday basis in its oversold / overbought levels.
DJT Bullish (if pullback occurs)DJT move since 24 December looks like an impulsive 5-wave pattern (With RSI divergence). Retracing to 10k is possible with coming earnings reports and profit taking. 10k - 9.5k will offer good risk/reward ratio. It would be wise to keep an eye on this.
Bonds on a TearMay's "Risk Off" has catapulted Long-Term Corporate Bonds (LQD) and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) into two of the top 5 performing assets YTD:
LT Corp Bonds: +10.41%
20+Year Treasuries: +9.02%
Bonds on a TearMay's "Risk Off" has catapulted Long-Term Corporate Bonds (LQD) and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) into two of the top 5 performing assets YTD:
LT Corp Bonds: +10.41%
20+Year Treasuries: +9.02%
Gold: Bullish divergence or another bear flagGold's hourly chart RSI is reporting a bullish divergence of the RSI. A closer look at the price chart, however, reveals the yellow metal is forming bear flag pattern.
Downside break wouldn't be surprising. After all, lack of buyers despite the US stocks flashing red indicates the market sentiment is quite bearish.
Also on the hourly chart, major averages are trending south.
$EWZ $BVSP $IBOV Brazilian Stocks Under PressureWith market volatility back in the global markets with a vengeance, and the US Dollar remaining strong, one EM equity market that has been hit particularly hard this year has been the Brazilian Stocks (EWZ). Sluggish growth forecasts, combined with waning support for the Brazilian President, has sent Brazilian Stocks to its lowest level of the year so far, down -2.94%.
The sharp declines have also been fueled by uncertainty over the US-China trade talks on a macro level. The combination of these two forces, the external macro headwinds and weak domestic economy, have both been a perfect storm for the under-performance of Brazilian stocks in 2019 thus far. Furthermore, on a technical basis, the EWZ continues to show deterioration within the equity market, with the 50-day EMA acting as a strong resistance March 2019 and the price action failing to break above since then.
We believe that is these headwinds continue, there will be more downside for Brazilian stocks to come. We caution investors against this equity market.
EEM - Short - $40 targetEEM which can be thought as "Emerging Markets" looks fucked to me.
Short this.
Baring a sudden trade deal this week (unlikely), EEM could see sub $40.
The puts I purchased last week have already doubled in value. :)
From a TA standpoint, let's review.
Price is below the green line (bearish) but bounced off support in the last 10 minutes of the trading day.
Thank you algo panic buying.
The price could also find support at the .618 line or $40.62 but the .786 price of $39.47 lines up rather neatly with the supporting trend line.
Time frame: end of the month, possibly by 5/17.
USDCADThis pair has been trading in a channel, hitting both the dynamic support and resistance. I believe price is headed to retest the higher level of the channel before taking a hit below.
US Stock Market S&P500 Perfectly Poised for Massive DeclineVery high chance US markets (S&P500) will collapse from here (2910-2920) ... expected decline anywhere from 20-50%
First trend line (on smaller time frame) broken. Now rejecting near smaller time frame trend start.
Rejecting at trend start on larger time frame after losing trend Dec 2018
Smaller time frame short possible!
May precipitate bear market with declines up to 80%. 20-50% expected.
Russell 2000 is often a leading indicator for the larger market from my experience. Loot at /RTY and notice a failure to make new highs since the end of February. Now notice the trend break. Looks short!
Global Central Bank Interest RatesGlobal Central Bank Interest Rates of Major Central Banks
Made using Quandl
Malaysia - Still Waters Run Deep EWMAs Q2 2019 is underway, global financial markets have experienced a melt-up in assets prices, with some markets up over 20 percent year-to-date. However, despite the run in global asset prices, there is one country that has missed out on the rally, and that is Malaysia.
Malaysian equities (EWM) (INDEX:KLSE) have declined -3.77% in 2019, taking the mantle as the worst performing equity market this year so far. To further complicate matters, the yield on the Malaysian 10-year government bond has risen to 3.932% as of this post, up from 3.81% in March. Lastly, the Malaysian Ringgit (USDMYR) has weakened by 1.92% percent in April 2019, loosing 0.08% against the US Dollar for the year, and forecast to fall further.
Under-performance in Malaysian assets in recent trading sessions can be attributed to the fact that global investors are worried that Malaysian bonds may be removed from the FTSE Russel, a key global bond index for international investors. If this were to occur, Malaysian credit markets would see billions of dollars in outflows, in conjunction with a spike in yields, as investors flee the market en masse.
However, the under-performance of Malaysian assets in 2019 can be attributed to recent downgrades in Malaysian gross domestic product (“GDP”) by the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”). The IMF downgraded the country’s GDP to 4.5% for 2019, down from 4.7% as stated in their prior forecasts. Growth is expected to slow this year as uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade war is expected to put further pressure on Malaysian exports. Furthermore, on a micro level, the threat of elevated household debt among Malaysian households is also lurking in the background. With household debt-to-GDP levels hovering around 83% in 2018, some of the highest in South East Asia, there is worry that leveraged households who have taken large sums of debt for real estate investment and consumption may have difficulty servicing their existing debt. This is especially worrisome in the midst of a slowing economy. Thus, there is risk that elevated household debt could add further pressure to future economic growth, and threaten economic stability within the Malaysia, if it continues on its current trajectory.
As a result, due to these ongoing internal macroeconomic and financial headwinds, we are bearish on Malaysian assets and caution investors to tread lightly within this space.
If China Data is Weak, AUDUSD ShortThe relationship between the Aussie dollar and the Chinese economy is well studied. Clearly, Aussie dollar is a strong proxy for Chinese growth where economic figures should always be looked upon with skepticism. Overall, if the Chinese economy cannot get going, traders will first see this trend in the Aussie dollar.
$TASI Don't Sleep on Saudi ArabiaOne market that has quietly, but powerfully, performed well for 2019 year-to-date has been Saudia Arabia's Tadawul All Shares Index , up 13.82% as of April 3rd 2018.
On a macro level, the country has been buoyed by a resurgence in the price of oil , coupled with the "Risk On" feel supporting the markets since January 2019.
More interestingly, on a domestic level, the country has been support by global index makers, such as MSCI , promoting Saudi Arabian shares for inclusion into global benchmark indices, such as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This has been a boon for Saudia Arabian stocks, as Saudi shares have received billions in fund flows from global investors, and great exposure to global investors as this asset class opens up further.
Lastly, on a technical basis, the market technicals for Saudi shares are quite strong, with the price being supported by the 10-day EMA since December 2018. Furthermore, the Smart Money Index for the $TASI has risen steadily since January 2019, indicating strong flows into Saudia Arabian stocks.
We believe that this trend will continue for 2019 and recommend investors to have exposure to have exposure to Saudia Arabia. For investors who are interested in profiting from this trend, the ETF $KSA provides a great opportunity for investors.
200+day's of consolidation this is what the future holds WABIBTCHello everyone!
Technical Analysis my friends today for WABIBTC/Binance
After a LONGGGGGG consolidation period on WABI we have finally broken out of
that phase and resurfaced. A lot of room for growth for this coin as it has a LOW
supply as well as LOW market cap too. Circulating Supply 55,994,914 and the
Total Supply 100,000,000. For best results on this coin keep an eye on the
volume ad wait for it to go down before entry. Regardless this is a good
trade that can generate some profits look to sell around 15000 - 250000 sat's
range for best results!
Thanks, LiquidMEX
DISCLAIMER:!!!This is not to be considered financial advice is my personal opinion, always do your own research before entering or exiting trades as i will not be held liable for any of your trades!!!
COMPARISON OF FOREX, STOCKS, AND CRYPTO!In today's video I go in depth on the pros and cons of trading each market. A lot of retail traders complain about aspects of certain markets and use the wrong tools for the job in the market they choose to trade.
There are plenty of options for every trader out there!
If you are interested in learning more about probability distributions and my proprietary indicators to trade, follow the links below.
Also, read the linked trading idea.
BNBBTC - BEAR Market expectedthe BNBBTC pair is expected to drop in the near future following strong resistances converging together.
