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NASDAQ | 15% Countercyclical Trade? Rebound Before Crash?Looks like the market is poised for a rebound after shedding over 20% since October. Above 6100 we look bullish for a rebound consolidation period. Below 5992 this idea become invalidated as dip buyers will get taken out the back and shot. Watch for the market to reverse around the 7000 level as market participants make decisions to unwind their long positions and/or open large short positions to solidify a downtrend on the bigger timeframes. ***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
TVC:NDQLong
by Trader6127
1
$TVIX to hit $99.38, with trials to break $100.27In next 60 days, as $DJI continues to dramatically falls, among other market indices (e.g. oil most likely to hit below $40), thereby high-market caps (e.g., $MSFT, $AAPL, $AMZN) to settle down to new lower valuations, most likely all to hit below $600B, or even lower as it all used to hold on <$500B, thereupon $TVIX becomes a safe bet to break up its old adjusted supports and it is possible to reach to its $115 support. Please feel free to comment, Happy Holidays, and trade safe!
TLong
by aicody
5
SPY500 - charts confirming bull run is over?You can see where the support (blue trend line) broke down while a new down trending line of support (red line) was created. Previous support line now acts as resistance. Failure to break back above the 2009 trend confirms the longest bull market in history has come to a close. Enter the bears. I also see the left shoulder and head of a possible H&S formation. Perhaps we'll get news of a trade deal between the US and China, providing the catalyst needed to send prices higher, completing the right shoulder before said agreement falls apart or fails to materialize, sending prices down to 2470 and more likely, 2080 (.618) Or any other number of possible catalyst. A H&S pattern is not required to send price lower. We could just as easily bounce along the new RED support line down to 2470.
AMEX:SPYShort
by jdharward
DJIA - Looking Shaky at the 2.618 Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the us stock market is more likely to undergo a serious correction, as apposed to an extended 2019-2020 continuation rally. Aside from the fundamentals, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, which are also pointing to a global "risk off" environment, the TA alone shows that the 75 degree angle of this bull market is not sustainable. I am expecting a 20-30% correction to come within the next 2-3 years. Time to start thinking defensive, and protecting that capital.
DJ:DJIShort
by Lorenz_Capital
1
WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart Analysis 11/29Technical Analysis and Outlook Crude oil has tumbled under $50 handle. Prices continue posting their multi-stage decent. To day, Nov 29, a barrel of US oil is hitting our Oil Dip $49 projection posted on Nov 8 . Major Key Support $49 (Stage 5) will serve as an intermediate stop of the vicious decline: however, the latest drop might be mitigated with a swift bounce to Mean Resistance 52.10 , and perhaps 54.70, and ultimately to Key Resistance 57.40 - we shall see. (For Market Commentary, please visit the usual site).
TVC:USOIL
by TradingSig
2
Creating your own Trading StrategySELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Creating your own Trading Strategy "In finance, a trading strategy is a fixed plan that is designed to achieve a profitable return by going long or short in markets".Whats your Trading Plan/Strategy? Some of the questions you need to ask yourself when creating your own strategy are as follows; How much time during the day/night do you have to devote to trading? How much money do you need to live on each year and how much of that must come out of trading profits? How many distractions can you expect during the day/night? Specify the markets and times of the day you will trade Do i want to trade multiple systems? Will you short sell? or go long? Where will you place your entry/stop loss and target line? How will i monitor my trading results/outcomes? Will i use software or just a simple excel document? Will i need a mentor or will I be self taught? How do I handle losing money? Can i handle being in a trade for more then an Minute/Hour, Day, Week etc? Will i use a phone, tablet or desktop computer to place, check or cancel my trade? How will i improve my trading performance? How did you go about creating your strategy? What steps did you take or follow?
Education
by SMPTrader
HMNY bottomed [500-150% PP]Im a the legend of finance, the master of charts. We are down 94%, touched support, and fools are still shorting this? Buy now or regret for the rest of your life. Update: MoviePass went up by a MASSIVE 100% since I posted this idea. Just in the last two days, the price has increased by a massive 47.7%. As a whole, the stock market is skyrocketing. Bulls are reentering the market with strength... Should have listened... But it is not too late. The bulls are clearly strongly dominating the market. After such a V shape recovery I would call it rather safe to go long. 90% odds we go up. "Master? Master? What's going on?" "Hello? Mr legend? Where are you?" Ok but seriously, if you think MoviePass will survive NOW would be a more logical time to buy. I would not for 2 reasons 1 I know nothing about the fundamentals and do not want to bother reading them and 2 stock market probably goes in a recession soon. If MoviePass still exists and has projects and revenues and all that stuff and still priced a few cents THEN hell yeah I'd buy some. When it goes up 1 million percent vertically it's time to sell/get out, and when it drops savagely - not slowly - it is often time to buy, unless the thing dies. Let me just copy this text here: "About 1000 AD, Ibn Sina came up with the idea that an object moving in a vacuum would just keep moving forever without slowing down. In the 1700s, Isaac Newton figured out a way to prove this was true using mathematics. If you were out in space and you gave a rock a push, its momentum would keep the rock moving at the same speed in the same direction until it bumped into something. On the other hand, if you put a rock in space and left it there not moving, its inertia would keep it right there, hanging in space, forever (or until something bumped into it or it came under gravitational or magnetic pull). Unlike Space, on Earth objects slow down due to friction and/or gravity. In the markets, trends slow down in part to the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics one could argue, but for the more readily apparent reason, we will simply narrow our focus to the opposing market forces. Outside the 2nd Law, a unique thing about a momentum move in the markets is that prior to slowing down and ultimately reversing direction, it will quite often increase in velocity towards the end of its move." This is valid for EVERYTHING. In the markets very often moves become stronger and stronger before reversing. When things become extreme, there will often be at some point a sharp bounce (big money coming in or whatever reason) and then it goes down with weakness 2nd Law of Thermo etc. I know most people are interested mainly in magic beans, and I am too, it is a new market, we had 500 years of stock market we can NOT look at it for a few months, but magic beans? They v only been around for a few years. We do not even need volume here, if we check magic beans (sorry xd) on the H4 chart since daily and weekly are kinda meh, we can very very clearly see where the selling is strongest. I am not sharing my indicator, MAKE YOUR OWN. I just cannot find something "built in" that actually shows trend strength. You can see it with human eye anyway, but I don't get why it's so hard? You can use the boredom indicator I published recently, kind of the same, and reliable. Here is the post. It is not perfect, the values are going to depend on the market... Here it has shown on the daily areas of extreme over-euphoric or over-panicked moves: I expect we get this ballistic missile move down from 3000 to 750. In a looooooooooooooooooooooooooong time (stupid brainwashed bagH0DLers). If they never sell ===> Their money is lost as it remains frozen forever. If they sell ===> They lose money but get some of it back. The choice should be simple. If I was to invest I would wait for the stock market to get a whole lot more bearish. My top rule is: always go against the STRONGEST OPPOSITE MOVE BUT! IN THE DIRECTION OF THE HIGHER TF MOVE. For investing. For trading probably works too but I don't try to do that. Also, once buyers or sellers have shown their hands, don't want to buy in a super strong selloff down 70% and down another 70% 4 hours later right? :D You can still find videos and posts of people explaining why investing in HMNY is awesome, most of them deleted that but some are left, they all went silent, no one is talking about that anymore... In the 1-5% of cases they end up being right, they are going to tell everyone, and I mean E V E R Y O N E. They are going to step on stages and talk to crowds, they are going to give investment advice, etc etc. But the 95-99%? They stfu like the lil obedient sloots they are :D Lmao. If you don't have the "fear of missing out" you will lose so rarely and get so huge winners. Bad game, finance is boring, TOO EASY I barely flinch.
HLong
by MrRenev
USOIL Trend pullbackApologies for late post here... WTI testing the multi month trend line. Recent move higher in oil was due to strong global growth and demand for oil and after US-administration confirmed they would impose sanctions on Iranian exports, the price of oil began to rally in fears of supply risk. As such traders pushed price higher ahead of the November deadline pricing in ahead of time. (buy the rumor sell the fact). Since then profit taking has occurred and then risk sentiment turned negative as US equities sold off sharply. Now were hearing fears that 2019 global growth will slow, China is slowing, EU growth is non existent and now the US may potentially slow too, this affecting demand side for oil. However none of this has actually happened yet. Looking at demand side: Global growth is still strong... On friday we get the latest US GDP figures for Q3 and currently in the midst of earnings season (the busiest week with 150 SP components reporting this week including (AMZN). Supply side: Iranian sanctions and not enough spare capacity to fill the shortfall left by the sanctions. Theres also the kashoggi case, where by the US are not going to be happy if the Saudis are caught red handed in the assassination, if the US then decided to punish Saudi Arabia, will the Saudis retaliate by putting an embargo on oil, driving the oil price alot higher, most unlikely scenario but could happen. Technically, WTI is testing multi month trendline support and 200DMA is close below. Bullish bias on oil off of this trendline back towards October high based on strong global demand and tightening supply. If the SP recovers, global risk sentiment improves, with a solid GDP print on Friday could be enough to send oil higher... However, as always if the trendline breaks and risk sentiment continues to worsen, I wouldnt hesitate to take a short position in this market on a re test of the trendline from the backside.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by AlexClarkFX