Markets
A simple investing strategy.Here is a simple strategy, or at least something to help build a bias.
I have not looked that much into it but I checked charts and it worked ALL THE TIME FOREVER AND EVER.
I did not want to share anything lately, but seing how idiotic the cryptoers are, how there have been a new bubble every 5 years for the past 400 HOW ARE PEOPLE THAT STUPID HOW DO THEY KEEP FALLING FOR THIS MOOONKEYS!
My top strategies (short term) have worked forever (no one figured them out really? or?), I got some that are completely unrelated totally different strategy with different tools to feel completely safe, but ye I am not too worried now, so I can share (not my top strategies thought, these are top secret).
Got one with 70% winrate and a RR of 2 that's probably the best strategy ever invented by mankind or just made public lol. Oh it is my worse one.
You can check what MA200 daily gives, but EMA15 on monthly chart is so much better.
When price is clearly above it you could keep opening long swing trades for years and win right?
Or buy short term when it gets visited, perhaps.
You might have heard of the rule with the daily MA200
Works 60% of the time everytime.
But with EMA 15 it works 90% of the time everytime (I do not know actual numbers have not really tested this strategy).
Can be improved of course, just an example and something that might be useful. Stock market has a bull bias, so best to be more selective with short.
Or not short at all
Oh and if you are thinking "meh I want 50000% gains on my 15$ investment this is bad", this works with billions of dollars np.
Maybe I'll use this when I made huge GAINZ from short term trading FX & indices.
And the moment you've all been waiting for:
Hey, works even better with the 3 month chart:
DXY riding bull since FOMC decision.93.81 brought some fueled movements on 21 sep 18 where price opened at 94.55 dropped till 98.81 made a high at 94.33 and registered to close at 94.22.
Dollar index composite of 6 FOREX majors, where today it is fueled with EUR and ITALY.
Keep an eye on 95.30 -95.37,
look for breakout strategy,
Continue..
Know This Trade Level For This Leading Regional Bank StockAs you all know, many of the leading regional bank stocks have been lagging the major stock indexes recently. One bank stock that has struggled over the past few weeks is SunTrust Banks Inc (NYSE:STI). This stock topped out on August 21, 2018 at $75.08 a share. Since that high pivot in the stock, the shares have tumbled and are now trading at $69.09. The company is scheduled to report earnings on October 19, 2018, so I would not expect a major move in the stock before that time. One level that has caught my eye as major support would be around the $64.50 area. This is where the stock broke out in December 2017. please note, the level was also back-tested in February 2018 before moving to new highs. This tells me that is where the institutional money will defend the equity when retested.
NYSE:STI
Nicholas Santiago
GJ SHORT ANYONE?! +300 PIPS?!Guys I believe that we've got a probable trade on GJ.
I've entered around 146.888 , I believe that we could potentially see prices shoot down to lows of 144.500/143.000 .
I'm expecting some turbulence around the 146.000 Zone , however if we shoot pass this region. We could potentially see +200 pips on this trade.
Let's wait and see!
TP: 144.500/143.000
FMWO: World Markets Overview - Back to Positive in neartermFMWO World Markets Near Term Outlook
September 13th
This index only prints End of Day on Tv.
But it's still useful for a birds eye view of world markets.
It was meant to bounce from the lowest parallel.
Thankfully for world markets it has done.
It should rally back to the 6287 line and then, after a little
consolidation, on to the old high at 6359, about 3%.
This should augur well for US markets too.
Still a buy dips market therefore.
September 10th
This lumbering beast came within a couple of points of the lower support line before bouncing away to the upside again.
This index still looks positive from here.
That should be helpful for major markets in the near term.
*For global markets updates and trade set-ups in real time
please see link at top-left of main page.
EOS - Weak hands filtered outBITFINEX:EOSUSD presents itself as a candidate for a long setup. Slightly lagging, but moving in line with the likes of ONT, WTC and ICX, following are some of our technical observations:
1. Bounce from a long term support at ~$4.50 with constructive trend in oscillators.
2. Price action suggests closing above short term moving averages (9 & 21 case in point).
3. General up-tick in Market to catalyze a move towards 50% Fibonacci (as plotted on the chart) coinciding with horizontal resistant region at ~$6.70.
Trade Setup:
Buy zone: $4.95, $4.71, $4.56 - Preferably 33% each
Stop Loss: Close below $4.34
Sell Zone: 20% at $5.40, 30% at $5.70, 50% at $6.70
We are trading by levelsOur pair was fixed under the level of 1.2860 and currently remains under it. Despite the weakening of the reserve currency, we believe that the downward movement will continue and reach the levels of 1.2800 and 1.2745.
The price is in the lower range of the Bollinger bands and is directed downward, so we recommend looking for points to enter short positions. If the price returns above the mark of 1.2860, we consider a reversal option with the levels of 1.2930 and 1.2970
Dow Jones: WARNING PART IIIn my previous post, I was short the DJIA, with the expectation of adding at down trending resistance. I did add, but was quickly stopped out.
Now price has broken ABOVE the resistance line, and I'm forced into a neutral position. This means I have no conviction either way, and any trades I take will be 1/3 of my full size.
I do not want to be one of these traders who perpetually tries to short US equities - which is exactly what has fueled the most hated rally in history. Yet, I maintain that this could be a FALSE BREAKOUT, and that significant downside remains a possibility. For that to happen, price would need to quickly reverse, fall back under the top side of the multi-month triangle, and stay below there.
Another possibility is that we see a choppy consolidation at these levels over the next few months, before simply rocketing higher. For the bullish case to be confirmed, I would still need to see a closing above the 25800 level to indicate strength.
For now I'm neutral, with a slight bearish leaning. My bearishness is colored by the action in S&P and the Nasdaq - updates coming soon.
I will take a small short position on a Monday rally, with a stop above last week's high. If price moves higher next week, I will wait for a clear pattern to emerge before acting.
Trading Major Markets on Margin Part 2
Trading Major Markets on Margin: Part 2
...You need a game plan.
You need a system.
You need stops.
You need to understand true risk management and try to keep it as simple as possible at the same time .
You need discipline.
You need courage to buy when others are selling and to sell when others buying - if the correct signals are present to do so.
You need patience.
You need belief proven by evidence.
You need to test this by paper trading - or at least only trading the Dow for say $3 per point at outset.
If so and you were to decide on risking this amount per point and the stop you used on the Dow was 50 points away then the loss is $150 in this instance if wrong.
Look for trades that have risk/rewards of 3 to 10 times upside to 1 of downside whenever possible.
The upside on the Dow trade from Friday was from 24860 back to the highs and in near term it was back to 25000 - maybe 140 upside and 20 points of risk with a stop 20 lower. Or at 50 points of risk it just about qualifies as a 3 to 1 shot.
The low was 24852 on the futures.
Sometimes it works and sometimes not.
It really hurts to get stopped out and then the trade goes the way you originally thought it would.
Really hurts. More than being plain wrong usually.
But it will happen nevertheless.
On the other hand you could have got long around 24641 on Thursday and have closed out at 25000 yesterday for 360 points profit = $1080 profit before 2 points in costs.
The risk was between 20 to 50 points on the stop, so between $60 and $150 at $3 per point - so you know what you you stand to lose before the trade is initiated.
When you test it 20 times with small small numbers and see it works - or it doesn't - you can decide on whether you have a system of trading bigger numbers or not.
When you do, you can start to compound wins and losses and keep dividing total risk on ANY single trade to 5% of the total bank, 1/20th of the total bank.
If you did this with the Dow as above, (when tested to satisfaction first!) and you staked $1k with 50 points of stop it means $1000 divided by 50 points = $20 per point x 360 = $7200 profit.
For $1000 of risk.
The 20k is now worth $27,200.
Now you compound it and trade 5% of this on the next trade.
It takes less than a year to turn 10k into 1m if you can be bothered and disciplined enough.
You only need to be right half the time if the risk reward is right to begin with.
Go do the math...
There is no right way to trade. Just the one that suits your own profile and time considerations best.
This is just one way. It does work though, most of the time : )
Be lucky, whichever way you choose.
Trading Major Markets using Stops and Margin: Risk/Reward RatiosTrading Major Markets 1 of 2
You've probably already learned a lot through trading Bitcoin.
Those skill-sets are super scalable.
Often am in too much of a hurry to cover other markets to have time to lay out stops and risk reward ratios - hoping that you're experienced enough to work them out for yourself when I miss doing them- which will be quite often in fast markets.
There just isn't time except at weekends to cover things from a newbie's perspective.
This analysis is meant to be for more experienced traders really.
But for newer traders this is one way of trading technical signals. It isn't fool-proof. No system is.
But it works well across multiple markets if used with discipline, and without emotion.
But please don't believe mere words.
If it interests you please test it first.
20 times.
Calibrate your rifle sights/stops as per the pinned message at top of crypto pages and test tolerance levels of stops given.
It will never be perfect though.
We don't have to be either.
Just close enough...
Wave Trading and Wave Counting
Don't really see where Elliott 'waves' figure in the great scheme of things or at the micro level either.
Would like to. But have little evidence usually.
But If Elliott floats your boat and you can trade off it that's great. Please share if so ; )
In the meantime smaller time scale signals are there to be traded. And if we trade them with stops and a system that works more often than not we can make good returns on half and more of the positive trades and yet limit losses on the ones that don't work out as planned.
And by trading smaller moves we become part of and merge into the longer term. It's more fun to ride the smaller waves - they too become part of the bigger wave anyway.
And if we can see a good Elliott wave amongst the noise all the better. If so, share it dude!
Until then, if you can SEE that the stop is very close or ideally that price is right on it (limit down as with FB last week for example) then it's a SPECULATIVE buy with a stop close underneath the level given.
It's 'speculative' because we don't know that this will be the bottom.
In this respect 'breakouts', though still speculative, are less so than buying lows. We all want to do the latter: the buy low sell high mantra didn't make it to market mantra-hood by coincidence.
But lows can be more difficult to spot than breakouts, which no one misses really.
For example with the Dow recently it was around 20 to 50 points of stop if you were buying the dips, (see global markets link at top of main page)
Some will just leave orders in the market with a decent stop - say if looking to buy the Dow within 10 or 15 points of a given level (cannot expect to be bang on every day, you know that already) - they leave the order to strike or not and then use a stop at least 20 lower on Dow and maybe 50 at most. And some stick in a limit order too at the same time as the stop.
Sometimes it works well.
Sometimes it never gets struck.
And sometimes it's a big fail and we get stopped out for 20-50 points on the Dow.
It takles a lot of the emotion out of the equation. Not all of it. But a lot of it.
And if you can work out the RISK in points you can then work out potential rewards too.
Then it becomes possible to divide your total bank into 20 - so 20k total bank for ease of explanation = 20 trades or bets of $1000 each at a maximum - for this is effectively what we are doing... Betting that our call is better than the market's call at that moment in time compared to some future moment in time.
We don't have to be right much more than 50% of the time though we all want to be.
If we can be stoical/philosophical about losses and wins and tread the line without thinking either we're too clever or too stupid we stand a better chance of handling the inevitable losses when they come.
To think you're Billy-whizz of the markets and then discover you're not is way more disheartening than
never thinking that crap in the first place...
Part 2next
Gold at critical point 7-11-18Hello Friends,
Gold is back at the triangle boundary. Gold is very dollar correlated. Dollar may be continuing to complete its current rounded turn, but it may also suddenly rally through to new highs. Currently it appears gold has a good chance of rebounding and I am currently long again...I seem to enjoy knife catching lol. However, I am using trendlines and alerts etc. I will not hesitate to take my profits. At the same time, I am also willing to let them run because this could be the start of the next leg up. If not, we will have a partial decline to contend with and if we decisively break the triangle that may be a clear short with a long duration and potentially very high profits.
Augur [REP] Dual chart - prediction markets [BTFD]3 day charts both on REP/USDT and REP/BTC
As the platform gears up running on the Rinkeby test net, we see some fundamentals rising in this sector of cryptocoins
Augur (REP) will be going live on the Ethereum mainnet on July 9th, 2018. Augur, known by most for being the decentralized “betting market”, is more than just that – it is a decentralized prediction market and oracle service that wants to use the wisdom of the crowd to create a complete and accurate forecasting platform. Its token, REP, is a layer-2 crypto asset (layer 1 being the protocol layer) that sits on top of Ethereum.
We have seen in the past weeks good bullish signs from REP even during the bitcoin crash of late june
both charts are showing the possibilities of more bullihs action if u check the double gann fans u can get an idea of where it will follow or push up into
ideally, we want to see REP push up over $50 and keep pumping up, we may see a crash and dump just before it goes live on the 8th July
aggressive hodlers can enter below $33 or wait until it comes under $30
looking to sell at $45, $60 & $80+