Markets
HMNY bottomed [500-150% PP]Im a the legend of finance, the master of charts.
We are down 94%, touched support, and fools are still shorting this?
Buy now or regret for the rest of your life.
Update:
MoviePass went up by a MASSIVE 100% since I posted this idea.
Just in the last two days, the price has increased by a massive 47.7%.
As a whole, the stock market is skyrocketing.
Bulls are reentering the market with strength...
Should have listened... But it is not too late. The bulls are clearly strongly dominating the market.
After such a V shape recovery I would call it rather safe to go long. 90% odds we go up.
"Master? Master? What's going on?"
"Hello? Mr legend? Where are you?"
Ok but seriously, if you think MoviePass will survive NOW would be a more logical time to buy. I would not for 2 reasons 1 I know nothing about the fundamentals and do not want to bother reading them and 2 stock market probably goes in a recession soon. If MoviePass still exists and has projects and revenues and all that stuff and still priced a few cents THEN hell yeah I'd buy some.
When it goes up 1 million percent vertically it's time to sell/get out, and when it drops savagely - not slowly - it is often time to buy, unless the thing dies.
Let me just copy this text here:
"About 1000 AD, Ibn Sina came up with the idea that an object moving in a vacuum would just keep moving forever without slowing down. In the 1700s, Isaac Newton figured out a way to prove this was true using mathematics. If you were out in space and you gave a rock a push, its momentum would keep the rock moving at the same speed in the same direction until it bumped into something. On the other hand, if you put a rock in space and left it there not moving, its inertia would keep it right there, hanging in space, forever (or until something bumped into it or it came under gravitational or magnetic pull).
Unlike Space, on Earth objects slow down due to friction and/or gravity. In the markets, trends slow down in part to the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics one could argue, but for the more readily apparent reason, we will simply narrow our focus to the opposing market forces. Outside the 2nd Law, a unique thing about a momentum move in the markets is that prior to slowing down and ultimately reversing direction, it will quite often increase in velocity towards the end of its move."
This is valid for EVERYTHING.
In the markets very often moves become stronger and stronger before reversing. When things become extreme, there will often be at some point a sharp bounce (big money coming in or whatever reason) and then it goes down with weakness 2nd Law of Thermo etc.
I know most people are interested mainly in magic beans, and I am too, it is a new market, we had 500 years of stock market we can NOT look at it for a few months, but magic beans? They v only been around for a few years.
We do not even need volume here, if we check magic beans (sorry xd) on the H4 chart since daily and weekly are kinda meh, we can very very clearly see where the selling is strongest.
I am not sharing my indicator, MAKE YOUR OWN. I just cannot find something "built in" that actually shows trend strength. You can see it with human eye anyway, but I don't get why it's so hard?
You can use the boredom indicator I published recently, kind of the same, and reliable.
Here is the post.
It is not perfect, the values are going to depend on the market...
Here it has shown on the daily areas of extreme over-euphoric or over-panicked moves:
I expect we get this ballistic missile move down from 3000 to 750. In a looooooooooooooooooooooooooong time (stupid brainwashed bagH0DLers).
If they never sell ===> Their money is lost as it remains frozen forever.
If they sell ===> They lose money but get some of it back.
The choice should be simple.
If I was to invest I would wait for the stock market to get a whole lot more bearish.
My top rule is: always go against the STRONGEST OPPOSITE MOVE BUT! IN THE DIRECTION OF THE HIGHER TF MOVE. For investing. For trading probably works too but I don't try to do that. Also, once buyers or sellers have shown their hands, don't want to buy in a super strong selloff down 70% and down another 70% 4 hours later right? :D
You can still find videos and posts of people explaining why investing in HMNY is awesome, most of them deleted that but some are left, they all went silent, no one is talking about that anymore...
In the 1-5% of cases they end up being right, they are going to tell everyone, and I mean E V E R Y O N E. They are going to step on stages and talk to crowds, they are going to give investment advice, etc etc.
But the 95-99%? They stfu like the lil obedient sloots they are :D
Lmao. If you don't have the "fear of missing out" you will lose so rarely and get so huge winners. Bad game, finance is boring, TOO EASY I barely flinch.
USOIL Trend pullbackApologies for late post here...
WTI testing the multi month trend line.
Recent move higher in oil was due to strong global growth and demand for oil and after US-administration confirmed they would impose sanctions on Iranian exports, the price of oil began to rally in fears of supply risk. As such traders pushed price higher ahead of the November deadline pricing in ahead of time. (buy the rumor sell the fact).
Since then profit taking has occurred and then risk sentiment turned negative as US equities sold off sharply. Now were hearing fears that 2019 global growth will slow, China is slowing, EU growth is non existent and now the US may potentially slow too, this affecting demand side for oil. However none of this has actually happened yet.
Looking at demand side: Global growth is still strong... On friday we get the latest US GDP figures for Q3 and currently in the midst of earnings season (the busiest week with 150 SP components reporting this week including (AMZN).
Supply side: Iranian sanctions and not enough spare capacity to fill the shortfall left by the sanctions.
Theres also the kashoggi case, where by the US are not going to be happy if the Saudis are caught red handed in the assassination, if the US then decided to punish Saudi Arabia, will the Saudis retaliate by putting an embargo on oil, driving the oil price alot higher, most unlikely scenario but could happen.
Technically, WTI is testing multi month trendline support and 200DMA is close below. Bullish bias on oil off of this trendline back towards October high based on strong global demand and tightening supply. If the SP recovers, global risk sentiment improves, with a solid GDP print on Friday could be enough to send oil higher...
However, as always if the trendline breaks and risk sentiment continues to worsen, I wouldnt hesitate to take a short position in this market on a re test of the trendline from the backside.
A simple investing strategy.Here is a simple strategy, or at least something to help build a bias.
I have not looked that much into it but I checked charts and it worked ALL THE TIME FOREVER AND EVER.
I did not want to share anything lately, but seing how idiotic the cryptoers are, how there have been a new bubble every 5 years for the past 400 HOW ARE PEOPLE THAT STUPID HOW DO THEY KEEP FALLING FOR THIS MOOONKEYS!
My top strategies (short term) have worked forever (no one figured them out really? or?), I got some that are completely unrelated totally different strategy with different tools to feel completely safe, but ye I am not too worried now, so I can share (not my top strategies thought, these are top secret).
Got one with 70% winrate and a RR of 2 that's probably the best strategy ever invented by mankind or just made public lol. Oh it is my worse one.
You can check what MA200 daily gives, but EMA15 on monthly chart is so much better.
When price is clearly above it you could keep opening long swing trades for years and win right?
Or buy short term when it gets visited, perhaps.
You might have heard of the rule with the daily MA200
Works 60% of the time everytime.
But with EMA 15 it works 90% of the time everytime (I do not know actual numbers have not really tested this strategy).
Can be improved of course, just an example and something that might be useful. Stock market has a bull bias, so best to be more selective with short.
Or not short at all
Oh and if you are thinking "meh I want 50000% gains on my 15$ investment this is bad", this works with billions of dollars np.
Maybe I'll use this when I made huge GAINZ from short term trading FX & indices.
And the moment you've all been waiting for:
Hey, works even better with the 3 month chart:
DXY riding bull since FOMC decision.93.81 brought some fueled movements on 21 sep 18 where price opened at 94.55 dropped till 98.81 made a high at 94.33 and registered to close at 94.22.
Dollar index composite of 6 FOREX majors, where today it is fueled with EUR and ITALY.
Keep an eye on 95.30 -95.37,
look for breakout strategy,
Continue..
Know This Trade Level For This Leading Regional Bank StockAs you all know, many of the leading regional bank stocks have been lagging the major stock indexes recently. One bank stock that has struggled over the past few weeks is SunTrust Banks Inc (NYSE:STI). This stock topped out on August 21, 2018 at $75.08 a share. Since that high pivot in the stock, the shares have tumbled and are now trading at $69.09. The company is scheduled to report earnings on October 19, 2018, so I would not expect a major move in the stock before that time. One level that has caught my eye as major support would be around the $64.50 area. This is where the stock broke out in December 2017. please note, the level was also back-tested in February 2018 before moving to new highs. This tells me that is where the institutional money will defend the equity when retested.
NYSE:STI
Nicholas Santiago
GJ SHORT ANYONE?! +300 PIPS?!Guys I believe that we've got a probable trade on GJ.
I've entered around 146.888 , I believe that we could potentially see prices shoot down to lows of 144.500/143.000 .
I'm expecting some turbulence around the 146.000 Zone , however if we shoot pass this region. We could potentially see +200 pips on this trade.
Let's wait and see!
TP: 144.500/143.000
FMWO: World Markets Overview - Back to Positive in neartermFMWO World Markets Near Term Outlook
September 13th
This index only prints End of Day on Tv.
But it's still useful for a birds eye view of world markets.
It was meant to bounce from the lowest parallel.
Thankfully for world markets it has done.
It should rally back to the 6287 line and then, after a little
consolidation, on to the old high at 6359, about 3%.
This should augur well for US markets too.
Still a buy dips market therefore.
September 10th
This lumbering beast came within a couple of points of the lower support line before bouncing away to the upside again.
This index still looks positive from here.
That should be helpful for major markets in the near term.
*For global markets updates and trade set-ups in real time
please see link at top-left of main page.
EOS - Weak hands filtered outBITFINEX:EOSUSD presents itself as a candidate for a long setup. Slightly lagging, but moving in line with the likes of ONT, WTC and ICX, following are some of our technical observations:
1. Bounce from a long term support at ~$4.50 with constructive trend in oscillators.
2. Price action suggests closing above short term moving averages (9 & 21 case in point).
3. General up-tick in Market to catalyze a move towards 50% Fibonacci (as plotted on the chart) coinciding with horizontal resistant region at ~$6.70.
Trade Setup:
Buy zone: $4.95, $4.71, $4.56 - Preferably 33% each
Stop Loss: Close below $4.34
Sell Zone: 20% at $5.40, 30% at $5.70, 50% at $6.70
We are trading by levelsOur pair was fixed under the level of 1.2860 and currently remains under it. Despite the weakening of the reserve currency, we believe that the downward movement will continue and reach the levels of 1.2800 and 1.2745.
The price is in the lower range of the Bollinger bands and is directed downward, so we recommend looking for points to enter short positions. If the price returns above the mark of 1.2860, we consider a reversal option with the levels of 1.2930 and 1.2970
Dow Jones: WARNING PART IIIn my previous post, I was short the DJIA, with the expectation of adding at down trending resistance. I did add, but was quickly stopped out.
Now price has broken ABOVE the resistance line, and I'm forced into a neutral position. This means I have no conviction either way, and any trades I take will be 1/3 of my full size.
I do not want to be one of these traders who perpetually tries to short US equities - which is exactly what has fueled the most hated rally in history. Yet, I maintain that this could be a FALSE BREAKOUT, and that significant downside remains a possibility. For that to happen, price would need to quickly reverse, fall back under the top side of the multi-month triangle, and stay below there.
Another possibility is that we see a choppy consolidation at these levels over the next few months, before simply rocketing higher. For the bullish case to be confirmed, I would still need to see a closing above the 25800 level to indicate strength.
For now I'm neutral, with a slight bearish leaning. My bearishness is colored by the action in S&P and the Nasdaq - updates coming soon.
I will take a small short position on a Monday rally, with a stop above last week's high. If price moves higher next week, I will wait for a clear pattern to emerge before acting.
Trading Major Markets on Margin Part 2
Trading Major Markets on Margin: Part 2
...You need a game plan.
You need a system.
You need stops.
You need to understand true risk management and try to keep it as simple as possible at the same time .
You need discipline.
You need courage to buy when others are selling and to sell when others buying - if the correct signals are present to do so.
You need patience.
You need belief proven by evidence.
You need to test this by paper trading - or at least only trading the Dow for say $3 per point at outset.
If so and you were to decide on risking this amount per point and the stop you used on the Dow was 50 points away then the loss is $150 in this instance if wrong.
Look for trades that have risk/rewards of 3 to 10 times upside to 1 of downside whenever possible.
The upside on the Dow trade from Friday was from 24860 back to the highs and in near term it was back to 25000 - maybe 140 upside and 20 points of risk with a stop 20 lower. Or at 50 points of risk it just about qualifies as a 3 to 1 shot.
The low was 24852 on the futures.
Sometimes it works and sometimes not.
It really hurts to get stopped out and then the trade goes the way you originally thought it would.
Really hurts. More than being plain wrong usually.
But it will happen nevertheless.
On the other hand you could have got long around 24641 on Thursday and have closed out at 25000 yesterday for 360 points profit = $1080 profit before 2 points in costs.
The risk was between 20 to 50 points on the stop, so between $60 and $150 at $3 per point - so you know what you you stand to lose before the trade is initiated.
When you test it 20 times with small small numbers and see it works - or it doesn't - you can decide on whether you have a system of trading bigger numbers or not.
When you do, you can start to compound wins and losses and keep dividing total risk on ANY single trade to 5% of the total bank, 1/20th of the total bank.
If you did this with the Dow as above, (when tested to satisfaction first!) and you staked $1k with 50 points of stop it means $1000 divided by 50 points = $20 per point x 360 = $7200 profit.
For $1000 of risk.
The 20k is now worth $27,200.
Now you compound it and trade 5% of this on the next trade.
It takes less than a year to turn 10k into 1m if you can be bothered and disciplined enough.
You only need to be right half the time if the risk reward is right to begin with.
Go do the math...
There is no right way to trade. Just the one that suits your own profile and time considerations best.
This is just one way. It does work though, most of the time : )
Be lucky, whichever way you choose.