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GBPUSD - Brexit pendingWill be taking a long position on GBP/USD based on the following reasons: - Bullish hammer candle on Weekly TF. - Rejection of 0.786 fib - Respected ascending trendline You might be thinking that I am super crazy by taking this trade, especially with the referendum only a couple of days away, however I feel as though the UK will not be leaving the EU and this is purely my opinion. I am willing to take on a higher risk as the risk/reward ratio is a lot higher. I expect a 1500 pip move as a minimum, which would blow away some really key levels regardless of which way the vote goes. If you are taking a similar trade and running the risk, ensure that your brokers either have a guaranteed stop loss or a NBP (negative balance protection) to ensure that you do not end up with a blown account. Trade safe
Long
by ApolloFX
Large divergence between volatility expectations and stocksA Tweet from Tracy Alloway with Bloomberg caught my eye this morning (twitter.com). She points out that the one-month VIX just tipped over the 3-month VXV. While this has happened many times in the past, I did notice that there is a rather large divergence between the VXV/VIX ratio and the SPX right now. The chart says it all folks. This certainly doesn't guarantee a sharp decline in stock markets, but this is definitely something to watch for today and tomorrow.
CBOE_DLY:VIX3M
by ABRAK75
1
Dow30-USD/JPY comparisonMajor part of the rally in US stocks since late 2012 appears to have been fuelled by Yen carry trade. Remember Bank of Japan was the first one to fire and the stage was set after Abe came to power. BOJ announced easing in April 2013 and followed it with another surprise in October 2014. BOJ's aggressive actions also forced ECB and other central banks to press the easing button. However, the situation now is Yen is not in mood to weaken, markets are not responding positively to aggressive central bank actions and oil has already doubled from its bottom in February. Moreover, oil helped indices recover from Feb lows even though funding currencies like JPY, EUR were on the rise. Hence, oil better stay resilient other wise, odds of a corrective move in Dow would rise. From technical perspective a break below rising trend line (black) could bring in chart driven bears as well.
FX:US30
by TipTVFinance
Gold outlook – increased risk of drop to daily 100-SMAResistance – $1230, $1236, $1249 Support – $1224.60, $1215.33, $1200 Doji formation on daily chart adds credence to a possibility of minor technical correction in gold, although prices failed near daily 5-MA in Asia. This if followed by a move below Asian session low of $1224.60 would open doors for a slide to daily 100-MA level of $1215.33. Such a move would daily RSI into oversold territory, thus leading to sideways to positive action.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Nifty outlook - Third gap up opening ahead of neckline resistancNifty advanced today in line with positive global cues and also marked its third gap up opening of the current rally from February lows. For me, a third gap up opening is usually a sign of reversal in a sense that "dumb money" has entered into markets. This view would gain further credence if the index fails to take out/sustain above inverse head and shoulder neckline level around 8000. A bullish break above 8000 on day end closing basis is needed to convince me that bull run is likely to continue.
NSE:NIFTY
by fxstraderomi
1
FTSE outlookResistance – 6200, 6244, 6311 Support – 6119, 6050, 6000 FTSE’s rebound from 6119 (38.2% of Apr 2015 high-Feb 2016 low) if followed by a day end closing today above daily 200-SMA of 6149 would signal short-term bearish invalidation and open doors for a rise to 6208 (23.6% of Feb low-Apr high). On the lower side, rejection at daily 200-SMA followed by a break below 6050 (Thursday’s low) would signal continuation of retreat from April high and expose 5950 levels.
FX:UK100
by TipTVFinance
Brent Oil - Bullish above $48.80Resistance - $48.80, $49.81-50, $52.00 Support - $47.72, $47.36, $46.74 Brent’s bearish price RSI divergence on the daily chart, followed by a bearish crossover between hourly 50-SMA and 100-SMA is likely to keep the prices under pressure. However, bears need to watch out for a rebound from $48.26 followed by a recovery above key hurdle of $48.80 as that would result in a rally to $49.43-$49.81 levels. On the downside, breach of support at $47.72 (hourly 200-MA) could see prices test $47.36-47.00 levels.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Brent oil – Bearish price-RSI divergence on dailySupport – $46.72, $45.32, $43.89 Resistance - $48.26, $48.73, $49.81 Brent’s move lower yesterday has confirmed a bearish price RSI divergence on the daily chart, thus indicating prices could move lower to support at $46.72 and $45.32. Intraday bearish invalidation is seen only if prices move back above Asian session high of $48.73, in which case previous day’s high of $49.81 stands exposed. On a larger scheme of things, a day end closing above $48.91 would signal continuation of rally from February low.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance
Week ahead - All about US interest ratesMarkets appeared to have changed their tune regarding Fed interest rate outlook after US data released on Friday showed retail sales in April jumped by most in a year. Even before the data release, a significant minority was expecting Fed to move rates in June/September if wage price inflation strengthens. The week ahead is a busy one for the markets as US CPI and Fed minutes will provide clues on inflation and on how fast the central bank may push up rates this year. It is a busy week for UK as well, with CPI, Employment data and Retail Sales scheduled for release. US data - CPI and Industrial Production is due for release on Tuesday, FOMC April Meeting Minutes Wednesday and a raft of Fed speakers with Dudley Thursday. Regional PMI indices, initial jobless claims and housing data is due as well. UK data - CPI is due on Tuesday, Employment data Wednesday and Retail Sales Thursday. Eurozone – Quiet week ahead, with just CPI and trade balance scheduled for release. Japan – GDP due on Thursday. Australia - RBA May board minutes are due on Tuesday and the employment report Thursday. China – Dismal retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment was released over the weekend. Dollar bulls will be glued to the economic calendar this week as a strong rebound in monthly inflation could increase the odds of a Fed June rate hike. Furthermore, a clue regarding a possible rate hike in June could come via April Fed minutes due on Wednesday. G7 meet in Tokyo on Friday Another global event - G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet Friday would be watched out by traders. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew is widely expected to tell Japanese officials to stop threatening to depreciate the yen amid. Note that aggressive monetary easing (intended to weaken currency) by Bank of Japan and other central banks could easily force Fed to delay rate hikes despite improvement in the domestic data. Hence, strong words from US could bring easing madness to a halt (at least temporarily) and pave way for Fed rate hike. Iron price is falling again… and so is Yuan Iron ore prices fell 5.2% on Friday taking the total weekly loss to 13% amid steel oversupply concerns and regulators announced measures to curb speculative trading in iron ore. Prices hit a 16-month high in April before losing ground. Prices now hover around 6-week low. Weakness could persist this week, given the weak China data released over the weekend. This could also add pressure on the Aussie, which is silently losing ground over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Chinese Yuan is weakening again. On Friday, the offshore currency, also known as CNH, hit the lowest since in three months as the People’s Bank of China set the Yuan reference rate against the dollar at 6.5246, the weakest since March 4. As per Xinhua news, “The central parity rate of the Chinese currency Renminbi, or the Yuan, weakened 97 basis points to 6.5343 against the US dollar today”. However, the decline so far has been moderate. Moreover, markets are slowly digesting the fact that Yuan is likely to be on a slow and steady declining trend. Nevertheless, decline in Yuan puts downward pressure on other EM/Asian currencies and Japanese Yen as well. UK corporate results due this week Monday – British Land Company Tuesday – Land Securities Group Wednesday – Burberry Group, SABMiller Thursday – National Grid
by TipTVFinance
USDJPY / 4HR / BAT PATTERN + (REPLAY VIDEO)Free Workshop Replay Available: www.starprosper.com BAT PATTERN PAIR: USD/JPY TIME-FRAME: 4HR TRADE: BAT PATTERN Good morning Traders. Executed a Bat Pattern on the USD/JPY 4HR time frame. Have a great Monday and keep pushing forward towards your dreams. I'm here if you need anybody. NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please re-analyse the trade before executing. Star Prosper Philip Stewart WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com FACEBOOK: facebook.com YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
Short
by UnknownUnicorn168204