Nifty outlook - Third gap up opening ahead of neckline resistancNifty advanced today in line with positive global cues and also marked its third gap up opening of the current rally from February lows.
For me, a third gap up opening is usually a sign of reversal in a sense that "dumb money" has entered into markets. This view would gain further credence if the index fails to take out/sustain above inverse head and shoulder neckline level around 8000.
A bullish break above 8000 on day end closing basis is needed to convince me that bull run is likely to continue.
Markets
FTSE outlookResistance – 6200, 6244, 6311
Support – 6119, 6050, 6000
FTSE’s rebound from 6119 (38.2% of Apr 2015 high-Feb 2016 low) if followed by a day end closing today above daily 200-SMA of 6149 would signal short-term bearish invalidation and open doors for a rise to 6208 (23.6% of Feb low-Apr high).
On the lower side, rejection at daily 200-SMA followed by a break below 6050 (Thursday’s low) would signal continuation of retreat from April high and expose 5950 levels.
Brent Oil - Bullish above $48.80Resistance - $48.80, $49.81-50, $52.00
Support - $47.72, $47.36, $46.74
Brent’s bearish price RSI divergence on the daily chart, followed by a bearish crossover between hourly 50-SMA and 100-SMA is likely to keep the prices under pressure.
However, bears need to watch out for a rebound from $48.26 followed by a recovery above key hurdle of $48.80 as that would result in a rally to $49.43-$49.81 levels.
On the downside, breach of support at $47.72 (hourly 200-MA) could see prices test $47.36-47.00 levels.
US FEDERAL RESERVE DICTATES MARKETS BEHAVIORChart describes relationship with Federal Funds Rate X Federal Reserve US Bond Holdings vs. S&P 500
Increasingly throughout the years markets behavior has been dictated by actions of US Central Bank Federal Reserve.
Following actions and words of Federal Reserve officials have been important elements in forecasting overall market behavior and direction.
Brent oil – Bearish price-RSI divergence on dailySupport – $46.72, $45.32, $43.89
Resistance - $48.26, $48.73, $49.81
Brent’s move lower yesterday has confirmed a bearish price RSI divergence on the daily chart, thus indicating prices could move lower to support at $46.72 and $45.32.
Intraday bearish invalidation is seen only if prices move back above Asian session high of $48.73, in which case previous day’s high of $49.81 stands exposed.
On a larger scheme of things, a day end closing above $48.91 would signal continuation of rally from February low.
Week ahead - All about US interest ratesMarkets appeared to have changed their tune regarding Fed interest rate outlook after US data released on Friday showed retail sales in April jumped by most in a year. Even before the data release, a significant minority was expecting Fed to move rates in June/September if wage price inflation strengthens.
The week ahead is a busy one for the markets as US CPI and Fed minutes will provide clues on inflation and on how fast the central bank may push up rates this year. It is a busy week for UK as well, with CPI, Employment data and Retail Sales scheduled for release.
US data - CPI and Industrial Production is due for release on Tuesday, FOMC April Meeting Minutes Wednesday and a raft of Fed speakers with Dudley Thursday. Regional PMI indices, initial jobless claims and housing data is due as well.
UK data - CPI is due on Tuesday, Employment data Wednesday and Retail Sales Thursday.
Eurozone – Quiet week ahead, with just CPI and trade balance scheduled for release.
Japan – GDP due on Thursday.
Australia - RBA May board minutes are due on Tuesday and the employment report Thursday.
China – Dismal retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment was released over the weekend.
Dollar bulls will be glued to the economic calendar this week as a strong rebound in monthly inflation could increase the odds of a Fed June rate hike. Furthermore, a clue regarding a possible rate hike in June could come via April Fed minutes due on Wednesday.
G7 meet in Tokyo on Friday
Another global event - G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet Friday would be watched out by traders. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew is widely expected to tell Japanese officials to stop threatening to depreciate the yen amid. Note that aggressive monetary easing (intended to weaken currency) by Bank of Japan and other central banks could easily force Fed to delay rate hikes despite improvement in the domestic data. Hence, strong words from US could bring easing madness to a halt (at least temporarily) and pave way for Fed rate hike.
Iron price is falling again… and so is Yuan
Iron ore prices fell 5.2% on Friday taking the total weekly loss to 13% amid steel oversupply concerns and regulators announced measures to curb speculative trading in iron ore. Prices hit a 16-month high in April before losing ground. Prices now hover around 6-week low.
Weakness could persist this week, given the weak China data released over the weekend. This could also add pressure on the Aussie, which is silently losing ground over the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, Chinese Yuan is weakening again. On Friday, the offshore currency, also known as CNH, hit the lowest since in three months as the People’s Bank of China set the Yuan reference rate against the dollar at 6.5246, the weakest since March 4.
As per Xinhua news, “The central parity rate of the Chinese currency Renminbi, or the Yuan, weakened 97 basis points to 6.5343 against the US dollar today”.
However, the decline so far has been moderate. Moreover, markets are slowly digesting the fact that Yuan is likely to be on a slow and steady declining trend. Nevertheless, decline in Yuan puts downward pressure on other EM/Asian currencies and Japanese Yen as well.
UK corporate results due this week
Monday – British Land Company
Tuesday – Land Securities Group
Wednesday – Burberry Group, SABMiller
Thursday – National Grid
NZDJPY / 1HR / POTENTIAL PATTERN SETUPSPAIR: NZD/JPY
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: POTENTIAL PATTERN SETUPS
Found 2 Potential Patterns setting up on NZD/JPY
1HR / 4HR time frame. Let's keep an eye on these 2.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
NZDUSD / 4HR / COUNTER TREND TRADECOUNTER TREND TRADE
PAIR: NZD/USD
TIME-FRAME: 4HR
TRADE: COUNTER TREND TRADE
Took a Counter Trend Trade on the NZD/USD
4HR time frame. Let's wait and see what happens.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
GBPUSD / 1HR / POTENTIAL GARTLEY PATTERNGARTLEY PATTERN
PAIR: GBP/USD
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: GARTLEY PATTERN
Waiting for an entry position on the Potential
Gartley Pattern setting up on GBP/USD 1HR
time frame. Let the markets come to you!
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
USDJPY / 4HR / BAT PATTERN + (REPLAY VIDEO)Free Workshop Replay Available: www.starprosper.com
BAT PATTERN
PAIR: USD/JPY
TIME-FRAME: 4HR
TRADE: BAT PATTERN
Good morning Traders. Executed a Bat Pattern
on the USD/JPY 4HR time frame. Have a great
Monday and keep pushing forward towards your
dreams. I'm here if you need anybody.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
SPX500 mid to longterm SHORT bearish Cypher, longterm resistanceSPX500 mid to longterm SHORT bearish Cypher, longterm resistance
In my scenario the SP500 and markets im general might shoot their last fireworks to
have a final champagne party on Mario Draghi and the ECB 0% interest rate medication.
However the longterm resistance line from May 2015 high is coming southwards, looking to meet
our curve around 2080 levels with RSI and stochastics in the daily chart hinting at a possible deeper decline,
with 1st support being seen in the red uptrendline from march 2009 lows and the 0.23 fib support at around 1785.
Please see this information as a theoretic example and not a trade idea.
Make your own analysis and plan your trade thoroughly and well-slept.
If you find this information useful, please leave a LIKE or a FOLLOW!
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Pennies to Thousands IWV ETF Where We Get Our CandidatesAs you can see all the major indexes are an important resistance.
On weekly: it has resistance at the 50 day.
All our indicators have turned neutral or slightly down.
We will probably have a consolidation or a pullback of a Fibonacci ratio, probably to an important moving average or the cloud.
During these periods we still may have candidates but you will have less of them.
We deal with this on our book ( Pennies to Thousands ) on the chapters of: Money Management and Putting It All Together. Also,on our Youtube videos ( Pennies to Thousands ). We will soon have a website for the special traders community looking for low price growth stocks that can become a multi bagger. We recommend you join for the fellowship of other traders, for our good ideas with entry and exit rules, for our video and audio tapes, to help with the psychology of trading and for our daily market commons like you are reading here.
August 2015 lows as resistance to USOIL at 39US$ +divergenceAugust 2015 lows as resistance to USOIL at 39US$
As we all know USOIL mainly reacts to markets' moves, so we will have to see how markets pick up the
doom & gloom news from the ECB on monday/tuesday.
Technically it clearly is a short, with growing bearish divergence in the H4 between RSI and the curve.
Decline is possible down to 34US$ (0.382 Fib support + round number) in the coming week.
Thanks for your attention.
Always make sure you only use this as an inspiration to make your own analysis and plan your own trade carefully.
Please leave a Follow or a Like if you find this useful!
You can also follow me on twitter:
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EURGBP / 1D / BAT PATTERN / POTENTIAL REVERSAL ZONEBAT PATTERN
PAIR: EUR/GBP
TIME-FRAME: 1D
TRADE: BAT PATTERN
Good morning traders. We have a nice Potential
Reversal Zone on the EUR/GBP Daily time frame. I
don't personal trade the daily, but will need to look for
a case for entry on a lower time frame.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
XAUUSD / 1HR / POTENTIAL BAT PATTERNBAT PATTERN
PAIR: XAU/USD
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: BAT PATTERN
Looking at Gold today as we continue to follow
what's been taking place. We have a potential Bat
Pattern setting up on the 1HR time frame.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
UKOIL / 1HR / POTENTIAL GARTLEY PATTERNVIDEO: www.youtube.com
GARTLEY PATTERN
PAIR: UK/OIL
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: GARTLEY PATTERN
For those that have been watching me trade Oil
in our Live Room, we have been doing extremely well.
Here is another Gartley Pattern opportunity for us to Trade.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
GBPNZD / 1HR / POTENTIAL BAT PATTERNBAT PATTERN
PAIR: GBP/NZD
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: POTENTIAL BAT PATTERN
This is the 3rd Bat Pattern in a row that we found
in the London Live Room.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
NZDJPY / 1HR / POTENTIAL BAT PATTERNBAT PATTERN
PAIR: NZD/JPY
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: POTENTIAL BAT PATTERN
Another potential Bat Pattern on NZD/JPY
1HR time frame.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
AUDNZD / 1HR / POTENTIAL BAT PATTERNBAT PATTERN
PAIR: AUD/NZD
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: POTENTIAL BAT PATTERN
Had a great session in the London Live Trading
Room this morning, thanks everyone! Here's a Trade
idea for the AUD/NZD 1HR time frame.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WEBSITE: www.StarProsper.com
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com