EURUSD: Keeping My Eyes on This LevelLot's of movement today with the ECB Press Conference this morning. As we start to see some corrections in the markets, i'll be keeping a close eye on this level for another potential short on the EURUSD
Tonight's youtube video is up so make sure you check it out. youtu.be
Also if you haven't done so already make sure you register for tonight's "Cracking The Code" event!!
(Link will be under today's video) *Out of respect for Tradingview we're not supposed to spam our ideas with links to stuff like this. *
See you there!
Chief Currency Analyst & Head Trading Coach
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Markets
Short on USD/JPY SELL SELL SELL !!! (Risky) Reasons for
- Clearly price is putting in lower lows and lower highs (Clear Downtrend)
- Price broke key level at 120.00 A week back so we maybe heading to next key level ?
- Price has put 3 touch on short term 4 Hour trend line
- Price put in doji the a bearish engulfing and clearly bearish candle then another bull green candle then another gearish engulfing so clear sign the sellers are in control at the moment pushing price down
- We are creating a type of right angle triangle with key structure level (Meaning a strong push of the breakout will occur)
-
Daily
- Previous daily candle was a bearish hammer
- On the daily we are clearly down trending so we are following the trend (The trend is your friend)
- We are also making lower swings
- Price is trading bellow previous key level before cleared on the daily and weekly (A sign that we are looking to go to lower level if enough momentum)
So all these confluences clearly show more potential to the downside
therefore i will be entering
My ENTRIE WAS 117.216
EURAUD / 1HR / POTENTIAL CYPHER PATTERNCYPHER PATTERN
PAIR: EUR/AUD
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: CYPHER PATTERN
Waiting for a Potential Cypher Pattern to
complete on the EUR/AUD 1 Hour.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
Long on EUR/USD BUY BUY BUY !!!Reasons for
1.Price has been stuck in box range for a few weeks now
2. 1.08000 Level is a strong level of support as the past has shown
3. Price has put in a bullish hammer and a bullish engulfing
4 .Price also put in a sign of reversal with a tweezer bottom
5. All these signs signify a reversal and possibly momentum to the upside
XAUUSD / 1HR / POSSIBLE TCTTREND CONTINUATION
PAIR: XAU/USD
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: TREND CONTINUATION
Waiting for Gold to give me a better entry
on a possible trend continuation trade.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
AUDUSD / 1HR / POTENTIAL GARTLEYGARTLEY PATTERN
PAIR: AUD/USD
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: BEARISH GARTLEY PATTERN
Our Cypher pattern has already been filled and
we will be waiting to see how this trade plays out.
If we get a stopped out Cypher, Then I'll be looking
to take the Gartley pattern.
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
AUDJPY / 1HR / POTENTIAL GARTLEY PATTERNGARTLEY PATTERN
PAIR: AUD/JPY
TIME-FRAME: 1HR
TRADE: BULLISH GARTLEY PATTERN
We are approaching this bullish gartley pattern and
I'm looking for a long entry here at @ 81.300
NOTE: These are potential trade opportunities. Please
re-analyse the trade before executing.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
FACEBOOK: facebook.com
YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com
MARKETS long term short, short term long.Markets have dropped to extreme levels, down to a near technical correction, so I have to think that peoples' psyche will kick in here, and that institutions/HFTs will target all depressed "good" companies, and scoop them up for lower prices.
Additionally, I am highly focused on options and overall market advance/decline trends. Regarding these, the P/C ratio for SPY has been decreasing to lowest in over a week, at just barely above 1, indicating an enormous amount of call buying. I have to evaluate these with prejudice, however, as they could be hedges for long positions in the market, but either way it's still a useful metric. Similarly near term volatility has finally started decreasing aver 5+ trading days of increases, and I've found weekly reversals to be meaningful at the very least on a short term basis. UVXY has the highest P/C ratio in the last week as well, to go along with bullish market expectations.
Technically, a correction is viewed as a short term bottom, and thus the violent bounce in August. If we pick up steam after the lows below 1900 in SPX, there's a good chance to test the 2000 before anything else happens. My focus here would be to short UVXY, as with even a slow market incline the volatility should evaporate.
From the news side, I do think there are some positive signs for a bullish behavior. China has stopped forced devaluation of their currency, where it would allow them to be much more export friendly, but also could cause a world markets meltdown well below the current levels. North Korea news has been priced into the volatility indexes, and I find it hard-pressed that anyone is really considering them a "factual" imminent threat.
The last bit of a puzzle would be for the FOMC to come out and reiterate some dovish signals, like a freeze in rates increase; or for the OPEC/US or any other oil producer to continue reducing the supply; re-imposing sanctions on Iran and so on.
My point is that something HAS happened to quell the markets from China, but it was offset by oil/north korea/and general world currency and other unrest. It's a chance that it may be enough, but more than likely it would not be. I think some additional actions (as suggest above for example) have to be taken, to re-establish market stability and eliminate volatility. Devaluing dollar would likely be the EASIEST and best idea at the moment.
Keep track of these chartsStart of the year and we have seen some pretty brutal selloffs! Happy New Year! Even though we have done pretty well in terms of gathering pips in the LIVE classes this past week due to the heightened volatility, we are VERY concerned about the future direction of the global markets. We covered the 'scary' charts in the LIVE classes from our 2016 chart pack, but the above 2 charts are Critical. Keep a watchful and concerned eye over them. Discipline and patience is highly recommended during these volatile times and make sure your risk/trade management is up to scratch. Good luck and happy trading. www.tradinglegion.com
SOMEONE ISN'T GOING TO LIKE THIS CHART! SPY LONG.
Now don't be fooled we don't see true value in the stock market long term.
Long term = overvalued
Short term = undervalued
We see this a a classic bear trap. Here are a few reason we believe so.
Market has left a lot of gaps to the upside (Unlike 08')
Media are dramatising the situation (Like August 15')
Move was quick, blamed on China (August 15)
It's been the worst starting week in history. Retail Investors will short this news get trapped and get robbed just like in August.
Now we still believe the market has further to fall in the long term (1500) but we can't see that happening without the upper gaps being filled and PPT stepping in to consume short positions.
Shorts are so January 4th
We are also going to upload a comparison to the last rate hike cycle.
Remember to Follow and Comment
Best #SPY Trading Next WeekTime to trade SPY long into the short zones where we can go short the next week!
Hit the like button if you agree!
Have a great weekend,
Johan
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TOP OF THE MARKET; DOWNWARD TRENDThroughout the past year as the market swung up and down due to various news that supposedly influenced the decisions of traders, one thing that proved consistent was technical analysis. I use this method as my sole method of trading decisions because if you truly believe that machines and HFT is now prominent in the trading, then you have to believe that they operate with some sort of logic regardless of what is happening in the world.
Because of this, the market variations of the past year have actually been predictable as support and resistance lines are hit. As the year came to an end and the Fed's decision to raise rates became the forefront of discussion until it was actualized, a downward trend in the markets formed. Regardless of the reasons, this fact remains.
As a result, I am short the S&P 500 and any other benchmark going into the year 2016.
Ninja (USDJPY) struggles within the rangeAs you can see in the chart, there's little to no space in the range where USDJPY has been locked in for some time (since the recent lower point), so here's some things to think about:
The US Dollar Index ( USDOLLAR ) may breakout the resistance and go higher
Or it may get rejected at the resistance and come back all the way down
Considering both scenarios and the similar positioning I took on GBPUSD , I thought it would be reasonable to post my thoughts here about this pair.
EURUSD / 4HR / BAT PATTERN COMPLETEHello and good morning traders, I hope you all
had a great trading day yesterday.
Lot's of big moves, making way for great opportunities.
I'm looking at the EUR/USD today on the 4 hour time
frame and we've come into an 886% completion for
a bearish bat pattern.
Stops and Targets are in place, looking for a potential
move down into Target 1.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
Approaching Market Top - Technicals and Shiller's CAPE IndexThe SPY is overbought, and is about to decline. Seems like a longer term reversal will be in place. This is a natural adjustment to the interest rate environment. Following the link related to this idea, you'll see a further explanation using the Shiller CAPE Index Plot that is frequently updated on his Irrational Exuberance website. My target price is 180 over the next year, and potentially 160 in the next two. The market should then grind slightly lower and in a trading range around 160 for until 2018/19. After, the market should begin to improve as rates come back to normal.
One caveat. The market in the early 1930's may not have received the economic stimulus the federal reserve put forth in the 2009-2015 time frame. This may help support stock prices, and the market may not fall much at all over the next few years. However, money in the market does not equate to top and bottom line growth.
Last, these are my thoughts and they are not investment advice. Talk with your financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
AUDUSD / 1HR / GARTLEY + POTENTIAL BATHello and good morning traders, we're on the AUD/USD
1 hour chart and after seeing the news make a huge impact
to the market, we no doubt also see the market respecting
structure and fibonacci as usual.
I'm currently trading the bearish gartley, looking for TP1 and
maybe TP2, if we come up and test the 127% again and close
above that, we can wait for a bearish bat pattern. But of course,
it's only potential and we may never complete the D leg. But
having said that, here are the options we're presented with.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
EURJPY / 1HR / BEARISH BAT PATTERN (VIDEO)VIDEO: www.youtube.com
Hello and good morning traders, just got involved
with a bearish bat pattern on the EUR/JPY
Have identified confluence, sell zone, stops and targets.
Please trade at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade
your plan.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
AUDCAD / 1HR / ADVANCED STRATEGY? (VIDEO)VIDEO: www.youtube.com
With the AUD news just hitting the markets, we have a lot of
market hype with the good news coming out.
Still managed to bank pips by using the strategy in the photo
above.
New video released today going over previous patterns and
potentials, will keep you posted in a follow up tomorrow morning.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
WHY AUDUSD MIGHT BE A GOOD LONG-TERM SHORTALL CURRENCY PAIRS IN WHICH THE USD IS THE
DENOMINATOR HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
ARC SHAPE SINCE THE 2009 RECESSION.
AS WE CAN SEE HERE, JPYUSD, CADUSD HAVE REACHED
THEIR PREVIOUS SUPPORT AREAS. ONE CURRENCY
PAIR THAT HASNT REACHED ITS PREVIOUS LOW
IS THE AUDUSD. ALL MARKETS WORK TOGETHER,
THEREFORE I BELIEVE THIS PAIR IS LAGGING
COMPARED TO IS RELATIVES. AUDUSD COULD BE
A GOOD POTENTIAL SHORT IN THE LONG RUN
AFTER ITS CURRENT CONSOLIDATION.