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SP 500 where next ?Good day everyone. well as you see in charts if USA and other big players haven't found any way out for current political and financial issue, we will see a capitulation on Stock Markets specially in USA .. so be careful. so next target will be at 2000 pts area which will be marked technically in Elliot Wave Structure WAVE C !!! More Geopolitical and Financial information would help you to understand current world financial tension. inflation rate: The inflation rate in the United States has been on the rise in recent months, reaching a 40-year high in November 2021. The consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of goods and services, increased by 6.2% year-over-year, the highest rate since 1982. This is largely due to supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and high demand for goods and services. Effects on the S&P 500 Charts: Inflation has a significant impact on the stock market, including the S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 index is composed of 500 large-cap stocks, and its performance is often seen as a reflection of the overall health of the US economy. As inflation rises, it can lead to higher interest rates, which can negatively impact the stock market. One way inflation affects the S&P 500 is through its effect on corporate earnings. Inflation can increase the cost of raw materials, labor, and other expenses for companies, which can ultimately lead to lower profits. This, in turn, can lead to a decline in stock prices and a drop in the S&P 500 index. Moreover, inflation can also affect investor sentiment and market volatility. As inflation rises, investors may become more cautious and less willing to take risks. This can lead to increased volatility in the stock market, with larger price swings in both directions. Conclusion: In conclusion, inflation is a key economic indicator that can have significant effects on the S&P 500 index and the overall US economy. As inflation continues to rise, it is important for investors to pay attention to its effects on corporate earnings and investor sentiment. Understanding these dynamics can help investors make informed decisions and better navigate the current market environment. it is important to note that predicting the future movements of the stock market can be challenging, as it is influenced by a wide range of factors. However, it is clear that the current inflation and other political and economic tensions are likely to continue to have an impact on the S&P 500 index in the coming months. It is important for investors to stay informed, exercise caution, and consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate risk.
SP:SPX
by Htback
1
BlackRock says the market is WRONG ....The World’s Biggest Asset Manager With $9 Trillion AUM, BlackRock are saying that the markets Are WRONG By Pricing In Interest Rate Cuts. There is a divergence between what the Fed is saying that they are going to do and what the markets are pricing in terms of interest rate bets. The Fed is saying “We aren’t going to cut rates”, but the market is focusing on the banking crises and thinks that will force their hand. BlackRock says the market is WRONG and they don’t see any rate cuts this year. I think the US 10Y Yield bounced off some key support last week down to 3.25 and currently the market is side lined. There are some very clear levels to watch on the US 10Y yield. But while above 3.25 the longer term up move for the US 10Y Yield is intact and only a close below this level would trigger a correction lower toward 3.00 and 2.80. #banking #banks #economy #invest #investing #finance #trading #economics #markets
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
2
Serious Concern for Global MarketsAll four of these charts represent not only their own value, relative to the dollar - but also the general health of their local economies. So what are we looking at? Upon closer examination, we can see identical bearish price action in all four charts. As such, we can assume that bearish price action (weak demand) among these asset classes, is implicit of some kind of adverse underlying economic "condition". This new "financial crisis" is no coincidence. Be careful out there. Stay low and move fast. God Bless!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by ChiefMacro
DXYHi guys what's up? I want to tell you something at first BE PATIENT. its extremely important in all markets and it doesn't matter what market you are trading and how much money do you have. okay lets talk about DXY I have posted an analyses about it and I had a resistance zone and it has been touched very nice and now I thing it can fall till the support zone in the picture. Here is A cluster of fibs and another thing in price action technique. I hope that it be useful for you please like and shear it whit your friends. DONT FORGET TO FOLLOW AND LIKE THANKS.
TVC:DXY
by rezaradmanesh
Gbp\Usd. BuyHello everybody! Let’s consider on a weekly ranges, the price impulsively returned to the flat from below (Flat borders are 1.20300-1.24000) have already retested the lower inner border of this flat. Margin analysis is long. Going down to the hour timeframe, you can see that the price was also in a flat for quite a long time (1.19400-1.21800) yesterday the pound went up from this flat. On the retest of the border, there is a serious supply-demand level (1.22050-1.21300), the Dpoc of the entire uptrend is right there, and the most traded levels. Here, using a pattern and filter through volumes, I will look for entry points to buy, the range for searching is 1.21750-1.21900. Also from the range of 1.20500-1.20600 (i.e. a bit lower) I will look form the entry points to buy, using the same tools- volumes and a pattern.
Long
by FrolovaZina
btcusdtBased on my analysis of Bitcoin price movements, I anticipate a potential decline in value that may occur in three distinct waves from current levels. However, I see this as a potential opportunity to purchase Bitcoin at a lower price point, specifically during the completion of wave 2 from the previous bullish trend. In other words, I will be looking to buy Bitcoin at a discounted rate during this potential dip in order to capitalize on its eventual recovery and future upward trend.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by oraclpips
#Bund market is completing a falling wedge #reversal patternJust wanted to highlight the falling wedge pattern on the bund (#reversal) that we noted on Friday will complete on a close above 137.25, however given the move this morning we will just go with it. It offers an approximate 147 upside measured target. Near term #resistance is 140.63/85 - the 23.6% retracement of the move down from December 2021, the June 2022 low and the January 2023 high. #markets #trading #investing #technicalanalysis Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
EUREX:FGBL1!Long
by The_STA
1
ROAD TO 30K LETS GOThis week, Bitcoin has led the recovery in cryptocurrency markets. The Fed's indirect monetary policy expansion has increased demand for riskier assets, which has benefited Bitcoin. The following resistance levels for BTC above the current price levels are $26,750, $27,500, and $28,730. This week, Bitcoin has been on a steep upswing, leading the cryptocurrency market rebound as the potential of the US banking crisis becoming a worldwide concern is priced in. As the Federal Reserve decided to tighten monetary policy in November 2021, cryptocurrency markets began a long-term decline from their heights. The events of this week have contributed to a rally. For the first time since 2008, the US Federal Reserve purchased the failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank bonds before opening a discount window for struggling banks. As a result of the bond purchases, the Fed's balance sheet increased by nearly $300 billion, according to figures released yesterday. The demand for hazardous assets surged due to this indirect monetary expansion. On the other side, following the bank collapses, demand for cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, increased. Withdrawals to external wallets have also increased dramatically.
BLong
by IPatrice
BUY BUY BUY BTC -Hand over fist This is a long term 5 year call on BTC direction. While there remains the open possibility of one more downward thrust to $18,750 and perhaps a flash to $13,750, the majority of the bear move has been priced in, and time is now on the side of bulls and the long side. Most of the time in the next 5 years BTC will be higher. I believe significantly so. The Reason : Implosion of International Banks and Payment systems world wide. BTC will be like Zoom Inc. was in the pandemic. It will find its new use. When payment systems collapse, new ones emerge. $35,300 within the next 1 year. And $87,500 in the next 5. ( or sooner)
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Urbanmove
1
Bitcoin Long IdeaHi Traders! As Bitcoin has been trending lower and all my short profits have been locked in on the coin, I have decided to look for a long entry. Be careful with this trade, we are currently trading in the same direction as the legacy markets, we could see a further downside if stocks crash. Here is my game plan for a potential entry: - Bitcoin needs to recover above 20k and consolidate - We need to reclaim 20300 - Small consolidation @20300 - Entry once high on lower timeframes (>5 min timeframes) has been broken - T1 21k - T2 22k - Stop: 19200 The beautiful thing about being right in trading a direction, it helps you to understand when to reverse your position to enjoy the upside. Before entering this trade, make sure that you manage your risk carefully, and make sure to leave me a follow on Tradingview for more trade ideas. Best CH
Long
by TraderCHgold
London Session Analysis; USDCAD, GBPUSD, EURAUD & CADJPYUSDCAD We anticipate a bearish action, expect the price to approach the (1DL) if it breaks below the low of the Tokyo session. GBPUSD: With strong volume and momentum driving the price higher, we recommend looking for opportunities to buy on pullbacks until we see a structural failure. Any sell-off without a structural failure is a potential buying opportunity. EURAUD: Currently trading below the London session's value area low, there is a possibility of a retest of the high, which was a high volume high. The best approach would be to buy in the event of a failure to make a lower low (LL). CADJPY: This currency pair can be tricky, but our overall strategy is to buy the dips and sell low volume rallies in CADJPY.
by Charts247TradingAcademy
Bitcoin Macro outlook 2023 . . .. . . and why is wise being Bearish on Bitcoin & crypto at the moment. Hi everyone , I make this super simple, so it even looks stupid. 1 Month Time Frame We see that after peeking at 69k price reversed and our modus operandi is sell to buy to sell . Meaning, we have large sells followed by buying just to proceed next large sell once price is elevated. This MO taking between 2-3 months in each shift. We already had our upside move in 2023 = price are elevated... ... global macro economy outlook is not so great either with high interest rates & inflation & situation between Ukrain- Russia not bringing any stability into west world either. Monthly candle close at around 15hours. If closing price is lower then 23315.95$ odds are highly shifting to favor further *selling TLTR: ´ We are up a lot from bottom, if we close under 23315,95$ on 1M, we have high probability that it will go to seek other end of liquidity upcoming months´ Joe
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptocapitaltrading
7
The Bubble Obituary The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at the peak in 2021! The US stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historical valuation averages. Conservative earnings expectations for 2023 would place earnings dropping 10%-20% this year, in-line with mild recessions. The problem with mild forecasts is that the current recession gives no indication that it will be mild. GAAP Earnings for Q4 2022, excluding energy, are down over 8% YoY with companies issuing even gloomier forecasts for 2023. Earnings are likely to fall at least 33% from peak to trough using an average of the last 4 US recessions. - The subprime auto bubble is popping, with dealerships and lenders heavily exposed to subprime loans beginning to default. American Car Center, a subprime lender and auto dealer, recently closed its doors, highlighting the mounting pressures the industry faces. More defaults and business closures should be expected as interest rates stay high, vehicles fall in price, and car loan deliquinces rise. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are extremely high relative to their historical average even before unemployment has began rising precipitously. - Layoffs have spread to every sector of the economy, as evidenced by 2022 Q4 conference calls. The decrease in consumer spending globally is leading to lower exports and imports globally. High interest rates are decreasing business activity and profit margins are falling due to inflation & weakening productivity. The business cycle has turned and every sector of the economy is entering cost-cutting mode. These are all reasons for layoffs continuing in increasing volumes throughout 2023. - The US housing bubble is imploding. Sales volumes have declined over 35% from the peak. Mortgage purchase applications are the lowest they’ve been in over 25 years. Using data going back to 1952 from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment surveys indicate that this is one of the worst times ever to buy a home. Home price declines are occurring nationwide. High office vacancy rates & high interest rates are leading to large bankruptcies in the commercial property market as well. This is already very acute in the mall segment of the commercial property sector. - The FED has been raising interest rates within an economic contraction which has historically always magnified economic downturns. The FED typically tries to raise interest rates in the early - middle stages of economic expansion, pause their hikes as the economic cycle matures, and begin cutting rates when the economy begins declining. In this latest hiking cycle, the FED waited until the economy began contracting before quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes even began! - America has one of the highest Private & Public Debt to GDP ratios in US History. The only other similar levels of debt in American History in the past hundred years were in the late 1920s & late 2000s. The economic contractions that followed were especially severe because of the high levels of malinvestment and debt which were deleveraged in those contractions. The level of malinvestment engendered by the FED’s suppression of interest rates in the 2009-2022 business cycle created one of the largest credit bubbles in history. Over 22% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable and over 20% of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Many of the IPOs since 2017 (and especially since 2020) were/are unprofitable and are beginning to run into funding issues. This economic contraction is likely to eventually be classified as depression due to the continued declines in business activity and living standards for years. The Technicals & Correlations - Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have all underperformed since December 2022. Inflows and buying from large money seems to have mostly dried up and retail investor inflows, short covering, and call buying are making up a much larger portion of the market than is typical. This led to a bounce back rally in Financials, Technology, Real Estate, and consumer discretionary stocks which also began topping out in late January. In late February 2023, all sectors of the market have topped out, show falling underlying momentum, and are trading at very weak volumes. This is a similar pattern that played out prior to the march 2020 crash, where many Industrials, Staples, Healthcare, and Utility stocks peaked out prior to January 18th, 2020; whereas many overvalued & unprofitable stocks didn’t peak until February 21, 2020. - Stock markets globally have peaked and are in the process of finishing their topping formations. Topping patterns began showing up as early as November / December 2022. Downside momentum is picking up now that interest rates globally are also beginning to breakout. The positive correlation between bonds and stocks has continued to remain strong since late 2021. - Commodities peaked in the first half of 2022 as price inflation continued rising and economic activity was still high. Commodities enjoyed a large bounce in Fall 2022 as financial conditions eased due to the bear market rally in stock & bond prices. Commodities have been exceptionally weak thus far in 2023, which is another negative signal for stock markets & business activity globally. - The bankruptcies of FTX & the Genesis lending desk, as well as increasing regulatory oversight, have continued to pressure crypto. With interest rates moving higher and the economy falling further, the speculative bubble that is crypto will collapse, likely back to being under 100B market cap for the total market with many altcoins going to zero and bitcoin dropping below 10K. Crypto has been a leading indicator for the market ever since their correlation began tightening in late 2020. The confirmed false breakouts and breakdowns all over the crypto sector are a negative forward signal for the stock market. - Total margin debt outstanding is still at an extremely elevated level. In real terms, margin debts outstanding are at comparable levels prior to the October 2008 crash & March 2020 crash. Insider selling is at the highest point that it has been in the entire bear market. The US dollar index’s negative correlation to the stock market was strong in 2021 but it became very pronounced in 2022. The US dollar’s rise against almost every other currency around the world since February 2nd is yet another negative leading signal to stocks. -Alexander Lambert I study over 30 countries’ markets and economic data releases. I also track the daily movements of over 750 companies and 15 different sector indexes. I have spent a tremendous amount of time on historical & economic research, as well as technical and fundamental analysis. I have been doing this for over 3 years and I generally spend between 65-80 hours a week on my work. Thank you for reading!
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
32
Don't Fight The FedU.S. CPI inflation data was published on Tuesday. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, inflation data came in hot at 0.21% above expectations. Despite inflation slowing YoY, expectations had been that current data would come out lower. Consequently, risk assets and equities have taken a short-term hit whilst the dollar gained some bullish momentum as this data increases the possibility of future Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. What matters more in trading is often how the market reacts to news rather than the news itself. And at least for now, markets did not take the news too badly. Meanwhile, US January Retail Sales came in >1% above expectations. Is this bullish because the economy is doing better than expected? Or bearish, because the Fed will have more reason to hike? It remains to be seen. A further signal will be how markets react to the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) announcement that they are suing a stablecoin issuer. This time, Binance is in the firing line as the SEC labelled Binance’s stablecoin BUSD as an “unregistered security” and announced legal proceedings against its issuer Paxos. The interesting point is that to be labelled as a security, an asset must meet the Howey Test criteria. Part of this criteria requires that there must be an expectation of profit when buying an asset. How the SEC has established that an “expectation of profit” is present when purchasing a stablecoin remains to be seen. One clear thing is that since the FTX debacle, there has been a profound push from U.S. authorities towards regulating and restricting the crypto industry. Just last month, Binance was forced to terminate their USD on and off-ramps. So far, the market is taking the news well. From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin daily chart looks healthy. The market is in the midst of a small correction following the rally from the beginning of January. The bulls will hope that the 0.382 Fibonacci level holds as strong support before the rally can continue up towards the next key resistance at around $25,000. An important note is that MA9 and MA50 are beginning to converge. The bears will be hoping for a death cross where MA9 crosses below MA50, likely providing the market with some short-term bearish momentum. In order for a new bull market to begin, the technical setups must align with the broader macroeconomic perspective. Although the technicals look good on various timeframes, economic factors, Fed policy and U.S. authorities like the SEC waging war against the industry make it unlikely that the market will get a convergence of both technical and macroeconomic indicators until after the 2024 election. Until we get an alignment of these perspectives, it seems wise to keep the words of famed investor Martin Zweig in our minds: Don’t fight the Fed.
by Coinrule