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London Session Analysis; USDCAD, GBPUSD, EURAUD & CADJPYUSDCAD We anticipate a bearish action, expect the price to approach the (1DL) if it breaks below the low of the Tokyo session. GBPUSD: With strong volume and momentum driving the price higher, we recommend looking for opportunities to buy on pullbacks until we see a structural failure. Any sell-off without a structural failure is a potential buying opportunity. EURAUD: Currently trading below the London session's value area low, there is a possibility of a retest of the high, which was a high volume high. The best approach would be to buy in the event of a failure to make a lower low (LL). CADJPY: This currency pair can be tricky, but our overall strategy is to buy the dips and sell low volume rallies in CADJPY.
by Charts247TradingAcademy
Bitcoin Macro outlook 2023 . . .. . . and why is wise being Bearish on Bitcoin & crypto at the moment. Hi everyone , I make this super simple, so it even looks stupid. 1 Month Time Frame We see that after peeking at 69k price reversed and our modus operandi is sell to buy to sell . Meaning, we have large sells followed by buying just to proceed next large sell once price is elevated. This MO taking between 2-3 months in each shift. We already had our upside move in 2023 = price are elevated... ... global macro economy outlook is not so great either with high interest rates & inflation & situation between Ukrain- Russia not bringing any stability into west world either. Monthly candle close at around 15hours. If closing price is lower then 23315.95$ odds are highly shifting to favor further *selling TLTR: ´ We are up a lot from bottom, if we close under 23315,95$ on 1M, we have high probability that it will go to seek other end of liquidity upcoming months´ Joe
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptocapitaltrading
7
The Bubble Obituary The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at the peak in 2021! The US stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historical valuation averages. Conservative earnings expectations for 2023 would place earnings dropping 10%-20% this year, in-line with mild recessions. The problem with mild forecasts is that the current recession gives no indication that it will be mild. GAAP Earnings for Q4 2022, excluding energy, are down over 8% YoY with companies issuing even gloomier forecasts for 2023. Earnings are likely to fall at least 33% from peak to trough using an average of the last 4 US recessions. - The subprime auto bubble is popping, with dealerships and lenders heavily exposed to subprime loans beginning to default. American Car Center, a subprime lender and auto dealer, recently closed its doors, highlighting the mounting pressures the industry faces. More defaults and business closures should be expected as interest rates stay high, vehicles fall in price, and car loan deliquinces rise. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are extremely high relative to their historical average even before unemployment has began rising precipitously. - Layoffs have spread to every sector of the economy, as evidenced by 2022 Q4 conference calls. The decrease in consumer spending globally is leading to lower exports and imports globally. High interest rates are decreasing business activity and profit margins are falling due to inflation & weakening productivity. The business cycle has turned and every sector of the economy is entering cost-cutting mode. These are all reasons for layoffs continuing in increasing volumes throughout 2023. - The US housing bubble is imploding. Sales volumes have declined over 35% from the peak. Mortgage purchase applications are the lowest they’ve been in over 25 years. Using data going back to 1952 from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment surveys indicate that this is one of the worst times ever to buy a home. Home price declines are occurring nationwide. High office vacancy rates & high interest rates are leading to large bankruptcies in the commercial property market as well. This is already very acute in the mall segment of the commercial property sector. - The FED has been raising interest rates within an economic contraction which has historically always magnified economic downturns. The FED typically tries to raise interest rates in the early - middle stages of economic expansion, pause their hikes as the economic cycle matures, and begin cutting rates when the economy begins declining. In this latest hiking cycle, the FED waited until the economy began contracting before quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes even began! - America has one of the highest Private & Public Debt to GDP ratios in US History. The only other similar levels of debt in American History in the past hundred years were in the late 1920s & late 2000s. The economic contractions that followed were especially severe because of the high levels of malinvestment and debt which were deleveraged in those contractions. The level of malinvestment engendered by the FED’s suppression of interest rates in the 2009-2022 business cycle created one of the largest credit bubbles in history. Over 22% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable and over 20% of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Many of the IPOs since 2017 (and especially since 2020) were/are unprofitable and are beginning to run into funding issues. This economic contraction is likely to eventually be classified as depression due to the continued declines in business activity and living standards for years. The Technicals & Correlations - Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have all underperformed since December 2022. Inflows and buying from large money seems to have mostly dried up and retail investor inflows, short covering, and call buying are making up a much larger portion of the market than is typical. This led to a bounce back rally in Financials, Technology, Real Estate, and consumer discretionary stocks which also began topping out in late January. In late February 2023, all sectors of the market have topped out, show falling underlying momentum, and are trading at very weak volumes. This is a similar pattern that played out prior to the march 2020 crash, where many Industrials, Staples, Healthcare, and Utility stocks peaked out prior to January 18th, 2020; whereas many overvalued & unprofitable stocks didn’t peak until February 21, 2020. - Stock markets globally have peaked and are in the process of finishing their topping formations. Topping patterns began showing up as early as November / December 2022. Downside momentum is picking up now that interest rates globally are also beginning to breakout. The positive correlation between bonds and stocks has continued to remain strong since late 2021. - Commodities peaked in the first half of 2022 as price inflation continued rising and economic activity was still high. Commodities enjoyed a large bounce in Fall 2022 as financial conditions eased due to the bear market rally in stock & bond prices. Commodities have been exceptionally weak thus far in 2023, which is another negative signal for stock markets & business activity globally. - The bankruptcies of FTX & the Genesis lending desk, as well as increasing regulatory oversight, have continued to pressure crypto. With interest rates moving higher and the economy falling further, the speculative bubble that is crypto will collapse, likely back to being under 100B market cap for the total market with many altcoins going to zero and bitcoin dropping below 10K. Crypto has been a leading indicator for the market ever since their correlation began tightening in late 2020. The confirmed false breakouts and breakdowns all over the crypto sector are a negative forward signal for the stock market. - Total margin debt outstanding is still at an extremely elevated level. In real terms, margin debts outstanding are at comparable levels prior to the October 2008 crash & March 2020 crash. Insider selling is at the highest point that it has been in the entire bear market. The US dollar index’s negative correlation to the stock market was strong in 2021 but it became very pronounced in 2022. The US dollar’s rise against almost every other currency around the world since February 2nd is yet another negative leading signal to stocks. -Alexander Lambert I study over 30 countries’ markets and economic data releases. I also track the daily movements of over 750 companies and 15 different sector indexes. I have spent a tremendous amount of time on historical & economic research, as well as technical and fundamental analysis. I have been doing this for over 3 years and I generally spend between 65-80 hours a week on my work. Thank you for reading!
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
32
Don't Fight The FedU.S. CPI inflation data was published on Tuesday. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, inflation data came in hot at 0.21% above expectations. Despite inflation slowing YoY, expectations had been that current data would come out lower. Consequently, risk assets and equities have taken a short-term hit whilst the dollar gained some bullish momentum as this data increases the possibility of future Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. What matters more in trading is often how the market reacts to news rather than the news itself. And at least for now, markets did not take the news too badly. Meanwhile, US January Retail Sales came in >1% above expectations. Is this bullish because the economy is doing better than expected? Or bearish, because the Fed will have more reason to hike? It remains to be seen. A further signal will be how markets react to the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) announcement that they are suing a stablecoin issuer. This time, Binance is in the firing line as the SEC labelled Binance’s stablecoin BUSD as an “unregistered security” and announced legal proceedings against its issuer Paxos. The interesting point is that to be labelled as a security, an asset must meet the Howey Test criteria. Part of this criteria requires that there must be an expectation of profit when buying an asset. How the SEC has established that an “expectation of profit” is present when purchasing a stablecoin remains to be seen. One clear thing is that since the FTX debacle, there has been a profound push from U.S. authorities towards regulating and restricting the crypto industry. Just last month, Binance was forced to terminate their USD on and off-ramps. So far, the market is taking the news well. From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin daily chart looks healthy. The market is in the midst of a small correction following the rally from the beginning of January. The bulls will hope that the 0.382 Fibonacci level holds as strong support before the rally can continue up towards the next key resistance at around $25,000. An important note is that MA9 and MA50 are beginning to converge. The bears will be hoping for a death cross where MA9 crosses below MA50, likely providing the market with some short-term bearish momentum. In order for a new bull market to begin, the technical setups must align with the broader macroeconomic perspective. Although the technicals look good on various timeframes, economic factors, Fed policy and U.S. authorities like the SEC waging war against the industry make it unlikely that the market will get a convergence of both technical and macroeconomic indicators until after the 2024 election. Until we get an alignment of these perspectives, it seems wise to keep the words of famed investor Martin Zweig in our minds: Don’t fight the Fed.
by Coinrule
How will markets react to rising yield and dollar?Moving averages can be applied to many things, from stocks and currencies to fitness measures and crop harvests. Here, the candles show US10Y is finding support off the 200ma, after making a significant decline. The 20ma (blue) and 50ma (dark blue) will indicate the yield's next trend as they separate. The green line graph shows a serious decline in the U.S. dollar. As the orange short-term trendline shows, it may be ready to move a little higher. The yield and dollar may not rise back to the highs, but they definitely can move up for a bounce in the near term. If the recent relationship continues, then this would create selling pressure for global and tech stocks while giving another lift to defensive sectors. Here's a little-known fact to watch out for: Starting in January, a new formula is being used to calculate CPI (consumer price index) data. The first release of this will be in February and the numbers are expected to increase relative to Dec. data. The new calculation will update spending weights annually (using one year's data) instead of biennally. Thus be alert to the possibility that markets react negatively to a high Jan. CPI, as the majority now think prices are coming down. On the flip side if CPI is in-line or lower even with the new formula, then markets will get quite a lift. www.federalregister.gov
TVC:US10Y
by OptionsRising
2
The "So-Called" Psychology of a Market Cycle!Greetings Dear Investors and Traders, today CryptoQueens, an educational post regarding the so-called Psychology of a Market Cycle. When making investment decisions, investors have a wide variety of tools at their disposal. While these tools can form the basis of a sound investment thesis, their effectiveness is limited by one’s emotions. Allowing emotions to dictate decisions is a common mistake made by many investors, yet they may not even realize it. People experience different emotions during these market cycles ranging from fear to greed. Below we will analyze, as well as you will find attached in the chart image the different emotions experienced by investors during market cycles which overwhelms the majority of the traders: Disbelief: This phase happens after the bottom has been hit. There is a sense of disbelief among investors about the rally. They believe just like it happened in the past few months, the markets will fall again. Their fear of making another mistake causes them to miss the optimal window to re-enter the market. Optimism: During this phase, the realization dawns on most of the investors that the rally is real. Investing during this phase if stocks are chosen well can give good returns. Enthusiasm: This is the time when the majority of investors are convinced about the market rally, therefore market demand rise. They believe that now is the time to be fully invested. Some naysayers still don’t believe in the market rally and advise caution. Euphoria: This is the phase where there is irrational exuberance in the markets. Investors share a collective dopamine as they think that they are genius because they made a fortune. It is advisable to stay cautious during this phase. Overconfidence/Greed: Investors continue to increase their positions despite high volatility. If you buy during this phase, you are sure to lose money, whatever you buy. Anxiety: Fear sets in, as losses begin to mount. Investors believe that the dip is taking more time than expected. This is the the moment when people are notified with margin calls due to the recent market fall. Anxiety kicks in. Denial: The herd ignores the market signs as market demand weakens. They believe that since their investments are in great companies, they will bounce back. Panic: Herd mentality takes over and market participants rushes to sell leading to widespread selling even at losses. This is a good time to buy extremely selectively for the long term as it may be very difficult to know even for well-informed investors whether we are in the denial phase, panic phase or capitulation phase. Capitulation: Market Participants accepts their losses and completely exit the market. They are selling close to the bottom of the cycle. Agony/Anger: Steep losses take a psychological factor in many investors and they start to blame the government, or anything correlated, perceiving it as market manipulation. Depression: This is the period when investors believe that their retirement savings are gone and their financial security is affected. They even start blaming themselves for investing. However, markets inevitably starts to recover. Conclusion: As an investor, you need to recognize these signals and never lose sight of the bigger picture. It is like Warren Buffett once mentioned. Be scared when others are greedy and greedy when others are afraid. Therefore, keep an eye on the fundamentals and behavioral factors that influence the market and always remain ahead of the game. Make sure you include this in your trading plan before to take action on it. If you liked it, make sure to support with a like, follow and a comment! Best Regards, CryptoQueens.
Education
by Crypto_Queens_Official
38
using CPI & CLAIMS data as TRADE CONFLUENCE!Really tricky market to make sense of right now because of how last weeks data (stronger job market - confirmed by NFP) was disregarded. This could mean: 1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse) 2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance Here's what I think: CPI has been cooling due to lower Oil price and higher interest rates (housing is a big component of CPI). Lower CPI shouldn't be a shock to anyone and is likely already priced in. For this reason, I think what matters most right now is what the Fed is focused on: SERVICES (wage) inflation and this is why I believe the main focus tomorrow is likely to be the services component of CPI and the CLAIMS data. I think tomorrow's news is already priced in and we're likely to see a reversal in XAU.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
2
[2023] An unfortunate tale of up-and-coming mishaps.Dear readers, Unfortunately, we have failed to create our good fortune in 2022. The main reason most influencers, traders and market followers; kept the "Buy the Dip" ante; is due to most of us believing in crypto; but also the idea that if we didnt make it in 2022, the bearishness due in 2023 could become damaging to the long-haul. 2023 is the year the U.S infrastructure bill is set to kick in. This bill conveyed a number of new burdens to be carried by node operators, miners and services. The biggest one of them being the tax reporting requirements which are currently unfeasible. If it weren't sufficiently bad; we also have to remain aware of the tactics, government roll out of CBDC's, could translate into. From a support for crypto-currencies in order to drive CBDC adoption, to, a possible view of crypto-currencies cannibalizing into the market for CBDC's. We are now starting the year with bearish macro indicators. A FED that is still unwilling to stop tightening and an overall market sentiment of disappointed at no pause/break in Q4 2022. This sentiment finds further justification in the steep decline in $APPL stock. A stock that for long was seen as a barometer for tech and the one tech blue-chip the majority of funds from low-risk pension funds to high risk hedge-funds, saw as a must within any portfolio. With all this in mind, 2023 looks set to be the most bearish year to date. We are slowly entering a period in history, where people simple do not enjoy sufficient disposable income to pay for Netflix and Spotify.(Sharp users decline. Sufficient for Netflix to review its subscription model and possibly roll out an ads based subscription.) A period where credit card debt is ballooning, not due to spending propensity, but due to people relying on credit to pay monthly utility bills, mortgages and other credits due. All in all we must remain warry. Many things are set to break in 2023. Utilities are set to remain climbing. Central-banks remain unwilling to change stance. It is now not the moment to attempt buying crypto or risk-on assets. Trade safe, and if you only know how to trade crypto, consider taking the time to learn about energy markets, defense and agriculture. The sun will set on crypto once more, but in these dark times, we must rush to safety. Happy new year and lets get to it legends :) Rob
Short
by TheBitcoinGeneration
2
The Psychology Of A Market CycleThe psychology of a market cycle refers to the emotional and psychological states that investors and traders go through as they react to market conditions. Here is a short summary of each stage of the market cycle: 🔵 Disbelief: At this stage, market participants are skeptical about the potential for a market rally or recovery. They may be hesitant to invest or trade, as they do not believe that the market has the potential to improve. 🔵 Hope: As market conditions begin to improve, investors and traders may start to feel more hopeful about the future. They may start to see opportunities for profit and become more willing to take risks. 🔵 Belief: At this stage, market participants start to believe that the market will continue to improve. They may become more confident in their investment decisions and become more willing to hold onto their positions for longer periods of time. 🔵 Euphoria: As the market continues to rise, investors and traders may become overly optimistic and start to believe that the market will continue to rise indefinitely. This can lead to excessive risk-taking and overconfidence. 🔵 Anxiety: As market conditions start to deteriorate, investors and traders may become anxious about the potential for losses. They may start to question their investment decisions and become more hesitant to take risks. 🔵 Denial: As market conditions continue to worsen, some investors and traders may start to deny that the market is in a downturn. They may continue to hold onto their positions in the hope that the market will recover. 🔵 Panic: At this stage, market participants may become panicked about the potential for further losses. They may start to sell their positions in a rush to get out of the market. 🔵 Capitulation: As market conditions reach their lowest point, investors and traders may give up hope and sell their positions, even at a loss. This is known as capitulation. 🔵 Anger: After the market has bottomed out, some investors and traders may feel angry about their losses and the perceived market manipulation or wrongdoing that they believe caused the market crash. 🔵 Depression: After experiencing significant losses, some investors and traders may feel depressed and lose motivation to engage in further investment or trading activities. 🔵 Disbelief: As market conditions begin to improve again, some investors and traders may return to a state of disbelief and skepticism about the potential for a sustained market rally. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
BITCOIN 2023: When To Buy? Hello,Traders! I'll just say that while this post is about BITCOIN what I say here applies to all assets Including stocks, real estate, bonds, precious metals. Many people are still expecting some sort of 2008 style crash of the markets because the economy is going from bad to worse. However, while we are already in the recession and the only person who refuses to see that is Jerome Powell of the FED, this has little to no influence on the modern markets which have been divorced from the real economy for quite some time. So once the FED pivots, and I am expecting this to happen no later than Mid 2023, this will tell the markets that we are again looking at the interest rates lowering cycle which will inevitably make the markets rally . And the rising tide lifts all boats so all the assets will start going up. Crypto, stocks, bonds, Gold. The only difference will be in the rate of return you can get. And clearly, the crypto market which is now the most depressed one will make the biggest gains. So If you don't have much capital, then buying stocks or gold will not make you rich. However, buying crypto, might do the trick! So here is the trading plan for 2023: wait till the FED lowers rates for the first time then just buy the assets you can get your hands on and wait. Happy New Year, And see you in 2023!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
7
SPX quick weekend updateIm on the road all day today, my connection flight is being delayed over 4hrs now. Had no time do a research, so can be wrong or can be right:) First of all Fri low came exactly on CPI gap open! I did tweet about it on Fri that I expected that number to be at least good for a bounce. It just stopped there. Closing above afternoon highs is usually a bullish sign going into Monday. But making new lows on Fri means that more weakens to come next week, which I do expect to happen with a low to come on the 22nd. 21st is a winter solstice, can mark a low or a high, I expect a low in 3750SPX zone. My best thinking is that we either make a low to 3808-12SPX tomorrow or just go up from the open to 3950-60SPX high but Tuesday am. There is also a resistance at 3900-11SPX and 3933SPX. If we do see 3808SPX tested in am, I will be only long for a Tuesday high, then short for the 22nd low. Timing is everything in out business, so that would be my plan for tomorrow's trading. Hope I get home at least not as late. BTW there will be a big announcement tomorrow, stay tuned! Have a profitable week!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2