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How will markets react to rising yield and dollar?Moving averages can be applied to many things, from stocks and currencies to fitness measures and crop harvests. Here, the candles show US10Y is finding support off the 200ma, after making a significant decline. The 20ma (blue) and 50ma (dark blue) will indicate the yield's next trend as they separate. The green line graph shows a serious decline in the U.S. dollar. As the orange short-term trendline shows, it may be ready to move a little higher. The yield and dollar may not rise back to the highs, but they definitely can move up for a bounce in the near term. If the recent relationship continues, then this would create selling pressure for global and tech stocks while giving another lift to defensive sectors. Here's a little-known fact to watch out for: Starting in January, a new formula is being used to calculate CPI (consumer price index) data. The first release of this will be in February and the numbers are expected to increase relative to Dec. data. The new calculation will update spending weights annually (using one year's data) instead of biennally. Thus be alert to the possibility that markets react negatively to a high Jan. CPI, as the majority now think prices are coming down. On the flip side if CPI is in-line or lower even with the new formula, then markets will get quite a lift. www.federalregister.gov
TVC:US10Y
by OptionsRising
2
The "So-Called" Psychology of a Market Cycle!Greetings Dear Investors and Traders, today CryptoQueens, an educational post regarding the so-called Psychology of a Market Cycle. When making investment decisions, investors have a wide variety of tools at their disposal. While these tools can form the basis of a sound investment thesis, their effectiveness is limited by one’s emotions. Allowing emotions to dictate decisions is a common mistake made by many investors, yet they may not even realize it. People experience different emotions during these market cycles ranging from fear to greed. Below we will analyze, as well as you will find attached in the chart image the different emotions experienced by investors during market cycles which overwhelms the majority of the traders: Disbelief: This phase happens after the bottom has been hit. There is a sense of disbelief among investors about the rally. They believe just like it happened in the past few months, the markets will fall again. Their fear of making another mistake causes them to miss the optimal window to re-enter the market. Optimism: During this phase, the realization dawns on most of the investors that the rally is real. Investing during this phase if stocks are chosen well can give good returns. Enthusiasm: This is the time when the majority of investors are convinced about the market rally, therefore market demand rise. They believe that now is the time to be fully invested. Some naysayers still don’t believe in the market rally and advise caution. Euphoria: This is the phase where there is irrational exuberance in the markets. Investors share a collective dopamine as they think that they are genius because they made a fortune. It is advisable to stay cautious during this phase. Overconfidence/Greed: Investors continue to increase their positions despite high volatility. If you buy during this phase, you are sure to lose money, whatever you buy. Anxiety: Fear sets in, as losses begin to mount. Investors believe that the dip is taking more time than expected. This is the the moment when people are notified with margin calls due to the recent market fall. Anxiety kicks in. Denial: The herd ignores the market signs as market demand weakens. They believe that since their investments are in great companies, they will bounce back. Panic: Herd mentality takes over and market participants rushes to sell leading to widespread selling even at losses. This is a good time to buy extremely selectively for the long term as it may be very difficult to know even for well-informed investors whether we are in the denial phase, panic phase or capitulation phase. Capitulation: Market Participants accepts their losses and completely exit the market. They are selling close to the bottom of the cycle. Agony/Anger: Steep losses take a psychological factor in many investors and they start to blame the government, or anything correlated, perceiving it as market manipulation. Depression: This is the period when investors believe that their retirement savings are gone and their financial security is affected. They even start blaming themselves for investing. However, markets inevitably starts to recover. Conclusion: As an investor, you need to recognize these signals and never lose sight of the bigger picture. It is like Warren Buffett once mentioned. Be scared when others are greedy and greedy when others are afraid. Therefore, keep an eye on the fundamentals and behavioral factors that influence the market and always remain ahead of the game. Make sure you include this in your trading plan before to take action on it. If you liked it, make sure to support with a like, follow and a comment! Best Regards, CryptoQueens.
Education
by Crypto_Queens_Official
38
using CPI & CLAIMS data as TRADE CONFLUENCE!Really tricky market to make sense of right now because of how last weeks data (stronger job market - confirmed by NFP) was disregarded. This could mean: 1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse) 2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance Here's what I think: CPI has been cooling due to lower Oil price and higher interest rates (housing is a big component of CPI). Lower CPI shouldn't be a shock to anyone and is likely already priced in. For this reason, I think what matters most right now is what the Fed is focused on: SERVICES (wage) inflation and this is why I believe the main focus tomorrow is likely to be the services component of CPI and the CLAIMS data. I think tomorrow's news is already priced in and we're likely to see a reversal in XAU.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
2
[2023] An unfortunate tale of up-and-coming mishaps.Dear readers, Unfortunately, we have failed to create our good fortune in 2022. The main reason most influencers, traders and market followers; kept the "Buy the Dip" ante; is due to most of us believing in crypto; but also the idea that if we didnt make it in 2022, the bearishness due in 2023 could become damaging to the long-haul. 2023 is the year the U.S infrastructure bill is set to kick in. This bill conveyed a number of new burdens to be carried by node operators, miners and services. The biggest one of them being the tax reporting requirements which are currently unfeasible. If it weren't sufficiently bad; we also have to remain aware of the tactics, government roll out of CBDC's, could translate into. From a support for crypto-currencies in order to drive CBDC adoption, to, a possible view of crypto-currencies cannibalizing into the market for CBDC's. We are now starting the year with bearish macro indicators. A FED that is still unwilling to stop tightening and an overall market sentiment of disappointed at no pause/break in Q4 2022. This sentiment finds further justification in the steep decline in $APPL stock. A stock that for long was seen as a barometer for tech and the one tech blue-chip the majority of funds from low-risk pension funds to high risk hedge-funds, saw as a must within any portfolio. With all this in mind, 2023 looks set to be the most bearish year to date. We are slowly entering a period in history, where people simple do not enjoy sufficient disposable income to pay for Netflix and Spotify.(Sharp users decline. Sufficient for Netflix to review its subscription model and possibly roll out an ads based subscription.) A period where credit card debt is ballooning, not due to spending propensity, but due to people relying on credit to pay monthly utility bills, mortgages and other credits due. All in all we must remain warry. Many things are set to break in 2023. Utilities are set to remain climbing. Central-banks remain unwilling to change stance. It is now not the moment to attempt buying crypto or risk-on assets. Trade safe, and if you only know how to trade crypto, consider taking the time to learn about energy markets, defense and agriculture. The sun will set on crypto once more, but in these dark times, we must rush to safety. Happy new year and lets get to it legends :) Rob
Short
by TheBitcoinGeneration
2
The Psychology Of A Market CycleThe psychology of a market cycle refers to the emotional and psychological states that investors and traders go through as they react to market conditions. Here is a short summary of each stage of the market cycle: 🔵 Disbelief: At this stage, market participants are skeptical about the potential for a market rally or recovery. They may be hesitant to invest or trade, as they do not believe that the market has the potential to improve. 🔵 Hope: As market conditions begin to improve, investors and traders may start to feel more hopeful about the future. They may start to see opportunities for profit and become more willing to take risks. 🔵 Belief: At this stage, market participants start to believe that the market will continue to improve. They may become more confident in their investment decisions and become more willing to hold onto their positions for longer periods of time. 🔵 Euphoria: As the market continues to rise, investors and traders may become overly optimistic and start to believe that the market will continue to rise indefinitely. This can lead to excessive risk-taking and overconfidence. 🔵 Anxiety: As market conditions start to deteriorate, investors and traders may become anxious about the potential for losses. They may start to question their investment decisions and become more hesitant to take risks. 🔵 Denial: As market conditions continue to worsen, some investors and traders may start to deny that the market is in a downturn. They may continue to hold onto their positions in the hope that the market will recover. 🔵 Panic: At this stage, market participants may become panicked about the potential for further losses. They may start to sell their positions in a rush to get out of the market. 🔵 Capitulation: As market conditions reach their lowest point, investors and traders may give up hope and sell their positions, even at a loss. This is known as capitulation. 🔵 Anger: After the market has bottomed out, some investors and traders may feel angry about their losses and the perceived market manipulation or wrongdoing that they believe caused the market crash. 🔵 Depression: After experiencing significant losses, some investors and traders may feel depressed and lose motivation to engage in further investment or trading activities. 🔵 Disbelief: As market conditions begin to improve again, some investors and traders may return to a state of disbelief and skepticism about the potential for a sustained market rally. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
BITCOIN 2023: When To Buy? Hello,Traders! I'll just say that while this post is about BITCOIN what I say here applies to all assets Including stocks, real estate, bonds, precious metals. Many people are still expecting some sort of 2008 style crash of the markets because the economy is going from bad to worse. However, while we are already in the recession and the only person who refuses to see that is Jerome Powell of the FED, this has little to no influence on the modern markets which have been divorced from the real economy for quite some time. So once the FED pivots, and I am expecting this to happen no later than Mid 2023, this will tell the markets that we are again looking at the interest rates lowering cycle which will inevitably make the markets rally . And the rising tide lifts all boats so all the assets will start going up. Crypto, stocks, bonds, Gold. The only difference will be in the rate of return you can get. And clearly, the crypto market which is now the most depressed one will make the biggest gains. So If you don't have much capital, then buying stocks or gold will not make you rich. However, buying crypto, might do the trick! So here is the trading plan for 2023: wait till the FED lowers rates for the first time then just buy the assets you can get your hands on and wait. Happy New Year, And see you in 2023!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
7
SPX quick weekend updateIm on the road all day today, my connection flight is being delayed over 4hrs now. Had no time do a research, so can be wrong or can be right:) First of all Fri low came exactly on CPI gap open! I did tweet about it on Fri that I expected that number to be at least good for a bounce. It just stopped there. Closing above afternoon highs is usually a bullish sign going into Monday. But making new lows on Fri means that more weakens to come next week, which I do expect to happen with a low to come on the 22nd. 21st is a winter solstice, can mark a low or a high, I expect a low in 3750SPX zone. My best thinking is that we either make a low to 3808-12SPX tomorrow or just go up from the open to 3950-60SPX high but Tuesday am. There is also a resistance at 3900-11SPX and 3933SPX. If we do see 3808SPX tested in am, I will be only long for a Tuesday high, then short for the 22nd low. Timing is everything in out business, so that would be my plan for tomorrow's trading. Hope I get home at least not as late. BTW there will be a big announcement tomorrow, stay tuned! Have a profitable week!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
EUR/USD is approaching critical resistance - tighten stopsEUR/USD generally remains pretty bid, but it is approaching tough overhead resistance at 1.0636/39 - the 2020 low and the 55-week ma and we suspect that the market is going to struggle to clear this tough area of resistance, you might want to tighten stops on long positions. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Long
by The_STA
16
¡EUR USD awaits FOMC minutes!INTRO The FOMC meeting minutes report will bring volatility to the markets, especially EUR/USD. Investors are waiting for any signs of a slowdown in rate hikes. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was at 3.7483%, compared with Tuesday's close of 3.758%. Fundamental Overview Durable Goods Requests returned a value of 1%, compared to an estimate of 0.4% and previous data of 0.3%. While jobless claims have been confirmed at 240k, against an estimate of 225k and a previous reading of 223k. The focus will be on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes report and the possibility of a slowdown in rate hikes. What could bring relief to the market marks the start of a bull market rally. MSCI's index of stocks across the globe rose 0.12%, despite falling 18% so far this year. In Europe, the STOXX 600 company index rose 0.1%, with a cumulative decline of 10% through 2022. U.S. stock futures, known as the S&P 500 e-mini index, pointed to modest gains. The broader MSCI index of the Asia-Pacific region, which excludes Japanese shares, was up 0.5% and up 12% so far this month. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.6%, while China's CSI 300 gained 0.1%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was at 3.7483%, compared with Tuesday's close of 3.758%. The two-year yield was at 4.5269%, compared with a close of 4.517%, rising on traders' expectations that the Fed funds rate will rise. Technical Overview The bulls are attempting to break one of the pair's toughest resistances (200p EMA) as the market awaits the FOMC minutes data. EUR/USD has gained 10% since its nadir of 0.954 in late September. The RSI is at the 65 level, leaving room for a rally to the apparent 80s sell level. The MACD maintains a bullish tone amid a bullish rally at the bottom of a descending channel. Also, the pair remains above the round number level of 1.03 (61.8% Fibonacci). As long as there is no daily close below this level, the pair's bulls can try to look for the 1,053 level, with more bullish power and volume at the 1,077 level.
by CRYPTONIA5
NZDUSD on RBNZ rates and monetary policy announcement, US minuteINTRO A rise of 75 basis points is the order of the day. Retail sales on Thursday may bring volatility to the Kiwi 0.62 (61.8% fibonacci) is the new resistance to beat FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Chinese economy continues to be impacted by COVID, impacting stocks and markets. The currency pair was affected by a slowdown in its gains as the U.S. dollar index found refuge for investors globally. There are several announcements today Tuesday that could bring volatility to the NZDUSD currency pair. Rates are expected to rise as markets see no slowdown in hawkish U.S. economic policy. European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said on Tuesday he had not yet decided to vote at the next rate-setting meeting in December, but would favor a 0.75 cent hike unless there was a significant improvement. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW Strong resistance has kiwi bulls frustrated. The confluence of EMA200 and the 0.62 level (61.8% Fibonacci) has investors considering a continuation of the call. The pair is up 12.5% ​​from a low of 0.55 hit in October. A bearish channel on the daily bar chart has been broken, but the uptrend could change due to expected volatility from the rate decision and Thursday's meeting minutes. Confirmation of the 0.60 level as support could lead the pair to seek resistance at 0.64 (50% Fibonacci).
by CRYPTONIA5
Gold is merely consolidating ahead of further gainsGold has met its initial upside target of 1782 (measured from the base 1702/1622). It is, we believe, merely consolidating its gains. We do like to look at Fibonacci retracements in conjunction with the cloud to work out the short term levels of support. While these hold we will maintain a positive bias. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by The_STA
1
S&P Trend VIXS&P chart against VIX on the monthly time frame. Comparing the longer term trends, when the VIX cycles up and down we get rally's and corrections, but if theres a sustained VIX trend change, it could indicate overall market direction change. IMPORTANT -Normally indicated by higher highs/lows and lower highs/lows on VIX channel. None of this should be interpreted as financial advice, I am not a professional or certified financial adviser! all charts, and or analysis' are my personal opinions and observations only!
SP:SPX
by Turtlecoins