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Marketsentiment

On The 1.60 level is holding on the GBP/CAD, but for how long?Price on GBP/CAD is pushing a little lower, but is still trading above the 1.60 level. The GBP/USD was able to break lower, below the 1.20 support and was able to hold. It is only a matter of time before the GBP/CAD breaks lower and I still think price is going to be able to do that. It will take about 6 months for this to happen, but in the meantime if price just stagnates, that would be great (I have a trade on this pair).
Short
by DollarSaenz
Will the NZDUSD be able to hit the 0.70 lvl this Year?This pair is one of my top focuses for this year and I almost let it slip by. After conducting my R/A this weekend I came to find out that the New Zealand economy might start over heating and the RBNZ is possibly going to be in a position to keep rising rates. The RBNZ is looking to raise rates to around 5.5% (at least that is what is projected). The data on New Zealand is: Annual GDP: 6.4% and ranging Unemployment: 3.4% and declining Wage Growth: 4.3% and rising Inflation Rate: 7.2% and rising Industrial Production: 16.1% and rising Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 and ranging Retail Sales: -4% and declining Housing Index: 186.2791 and declining The technicals are also showing a double bottom and a descending wedge which adds to the probability that price might push higher. Sentiment is also pushing more towards neutral for the USD as there are starting to be increased talks about the FED slowing down on interest rate hikes and being more dovish. The Fundamentals, Technicals, and Sentiment are lining up which push my conviction lvl around the 60% lvl which got me to start planning on how to build a decent position on this pair. I have a position on this pair already at 10k (I am look to build to a standard lot for now). This is what I am look at. If price stays above the 0.60 lvl, then it is highly likely that price will push higher. If price pushes below the 0.60 lvl by the end of March, then I don't think I am wrong, but I would think that I was too early. I would take my loss and retrograde for now and then come back in. My objective is to build a position up on the NZD before the 0.65 lvl (possibly around the 0.63 lvl, if lower, that would be ideal). If I am able to get into a full position before the 0.65 lvl, see price push higher to 0.68, and place a stop around the 0.65 lvl, I would be in a good spot to just hold onto the NZD and see if it pushes up higher. If this doesn't work, like always, back to the drawing board to update my plan accordingly. But I think this is a high probability trade that will last for a while. Like always, these are my thoughts and this is how I trade. Please come up with you own plans and ideas and ways to trade. This can be extremely risky and with the uncertainty in the markets, I could potentially blow up my account if I am not careful. Y'all have some great trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap SP500 One may get concerned about the relatively red looking Heatmap from yesterdays' session. Don't bee too concerned! Let's take a deeper look into what happened yesterday: Nasdaq Makes A Normal-Looking Pullback The Nasdaq, having rallied as much as 11% in the prior four sessions, seemed all but destined for a pullback. That's exactly what investors got Wednesday. A 1.5% decline by the composite index on Wednesday may sting those who went long right before the market open. Yet in the context of the overall market's fledgling uptrend, the Nasdaq's loss on Wednesday does not disturb the current upward trend. Plus, volume fell sharply on the Nasdaq vs. Tuesday's session. That's actually nice for the bulls. Lower volume on down days signals that the big players on Wall Street — from mutual funds and banks to pension plans and large investment advisors — are not dumping shares. This latest pullback can therefore be considered as a natural reaction to the previous up-sessions. JS-TechTrading 🍾🍾 We trade like the Champions 🍾🍾 Are you struggling with your trading strategy? Follow me to get free, real-time trading signals which are all based on Mark Minervini's success-proven strategy.
AMEX:SPYLong
by JS_TechTrading
General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap The heatmap for the SP500 shows that the market rally continues and the market environment overall is pretty healthy. General Market Update Market Rally Keeps Rising Dow Jones futures tilted lower overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. A strong stock market rally Tuesday morning faded, briefly turning mixed after Russian missiles reportedly hit Poland. The stock market rallied Tuesday morning on yet another tame inflation report. Walmart (WMT) earnings also helped. So did Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosing that it took a big new position in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). The major indexes pared gains somewhat, but then quickly turned mixed on the reported Russian missile news. But the Dow recovered to turn positive again. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 7 basis points to 3.8%. The U.S. dollar also declined. U.S. crude oil prices rose 1.2% to $86.92 a barrel after briefly spiking more than 3% on the Russian missile news. Natural gas futures advanced 1.7%. The stock market rally opened strongly as the producer price index came in lower than expected, with core PPI flat vs. September. What does that mean for swing-traders? Swing-Traders can increase their exposure in the current market environment which appears to be quite healthy. But remember: only increase your risk and exposure on the back of gains in your own portfolio. If the current trades in your portfolio do not work, there is no legimitate reason to buy additional stocks.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JS_TechTrading
BTC 2021 Fractal nears BO pt but 12k still possible if rejectedBTC seems to be repeating a 2021 pattern before it BO the black line & rallies to 69k. Similarly, it broke below the red trendline, broke above it & came down again & retested it. Is a big rally also coming? BULLISH SCENARIO: If BTC also breaks above the black trendline in the next few days, then it will also break above the ma100 & ma50 lines & also the Ichimuko Cloud. The ultimate resistances will be the descending black & blue trendlines (you may also see them as falling wedges with the red line as base) before any true rally. WATCHING SPY: We should watch SPY for any risk-off play as market sentiment changes quickly. I am still optimistic for an “Up UP & Away scenario” in the 4Q2022 specially if the next CPI report still supports peaking inflation & the FED becomes less hawkish. BEARISH CASE: if BTC gets rejected in the next few days by the ma100, ma50, Ichimuko Cloud & also the black & blue trendlines, then 12k remains on the table. The ABC wave playbook: BTC is so far holding 18k which is 2x retracement of wave B. Looking at the bigger ABC wave from 69k, 12k will be a reasonable destination since wave C will be equal to wave A (a perfect ABC wave). CAUTION ahead: BTC is currently overbought & may be shortterm bearish. HOWEVER, Rsi may remain overbought for a long time in a strong bullrun. Not trading advice but I hope this helps somebody analyze better & manage upcoming risk.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by xtremerider8
SPY will bottom before FED ends rate hikes:see contrarian viewLast August 27 I already gave the bearish scenario wherein the FED continues even into a recession. The downsides were 350, 320 & 280 IF SPY breaks below 400 & 380. Today, Friday, SPY seems to be doing an oversold bounce. So let us assume the contrarian role against the market’s extreme pessimism. What if the market sentiment changes & the market suddenly realizes that the FED is just pretending to be very hawkish just to kill that big rally from June bottom of 362? From June low, SPY rallied a little more than 61.8% Fibonacci to be stopped by the ma200 at 431. From there it reversed down exactly to Fib 0.618 at 3900. This bullish view will take into account certain things: *The duty of the FED is not only price stability & full employment but also to fund the government. Rising interest rates will blow up the govt debt. *Inflation has gone down in commodities like gasoline, food, durable goods. Rents & wages are more sticky. Fuel prices will go down if Iran deal push through or if Saudi agrees to increase production. The US, unlike EU, has enough supply of natural gas. *A FED pause is still possible in 4Q2022 or early 2023 if inflation & the economy really slows down due to demand destruction, earnings recession, lay-offs & rising unemployment. FED may keep rates steady for a while & then continues with less hawkish hikes. If rate hike is overdone, rate cuts & QE will return quickly to save jobs, the economy & control government debt. *This may be enough for sentiment to change & for buyers to come in pushing this rebound even higher. Let us just assume that the June low of 362 is already the bottom & SPY is doing an ABC wave up. Using Fib extensions, the possible levels are 460, 476 (double top), 500 & 530. Volatility will remain high with recession fears & geopolitical uncertainties not going away soon. See the wedge down & the wedge up. FADING THE FED IS TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE but fundamentally less probable. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPYLong
by xtremerider8
SPY the Bulls Are Back In Town...Hello Traders, I hope you all are doing well. I just wanted to shoot a quick update for anyone a little shaken by the market or confused as to what's going on. TLDR: Yes, there are still geopolitical concerns, but at the moment it's not important to the market, because we've already seen the response of the world and it has strengthened relations of NATO and basically blocked off Russia from World Trade and Financially. The Market's prefer hikes over inflation, and technical trading signals are still nearly perfect (as seen in above and below charts). So we have our answer as to who's economy is really likely to crash. Although the US would like to help more, there are limitations as to what we (the US) and other countries can do without sparking a Cold War or WW3, so the markets are pretty content that everyone is threading that needle. Now, why did the market bounce off the fed announcements? Many people without context assume that tapering and rate hikes are a bad thing for the markets; their thought process is that it makes valuations less attractive, due to more difficult borrowing for companies and consumers... This idea isn't wrong, it's just that they're missing a few pieces of information in that logic. First, the markets like policy that are good for the overall economy. Tapering and hikes will help fight inflation; monetary tightening is a signal that the Fed believes the economy is on firm footing. That is a good thing. The market easily prefers hikes over inflation worries. Second, historically, while stocks tend to fall the month following rate hikes, they typically end the year up around 5%. Lastly, there is progress on the geopolitical front. The World has condemned Russia's leader's actions; as we see a constructive movement in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, signs from China that it will roll back its broad regulatory crackdown and play a little nicer with the rest of the world. We do also predict gas prices to continue in a downward spiral and fall substantially in the coming months due to the panic buying subsiding, along with other geopolitical and psychological factors, which need not go into too much detail on. (It's important to note for those unfamiliar, the US is the #1 producer of crude oil, with about 20% of global supply, Saudis at around 12%, Russia 11%, and Canada at 6%). As such, the US is not reliant on Russia for oil; unfortunately, some of our allies are, to some extent. The Chart As a technical trader, that was a lot of fundamental analysis. Sometimes it's good to have both, especially when catalysts are often the driver on big movers. As I mentioned in my previous posts, technical trading has been on-point. Almost to the penny. On Weds, March 16th, SPY gapped up, perhaps on the positive geopolitical news mentioned. Now we're sitting on a trend reversal and (yet again) a retest of the 200MA. Honestly, I think we will hang around the 200MA even if we do break to the upside, at least for a month or two as I had predicted back in January (see below) . Please see for references. January. If you appreciated this please: Like, support, share, follow. Sincerely, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
4
Risk Model for the US Stock MarketThe S&P 500 closed 2021 as the top major stock market index. History suggests 2022 could be another strong year for investors. While it ended the day with a minor loss of 0.3%, the S&P 500 closed the year up just shy of 27%, the NASDAQ rallied 21% in 2021 - overall an outstanding performance of the larger indices. Our risk model improved over the last 2 weeks in 2021, but key indicators still suggest an elevated risk for momentum swing traders. Some details: - after the >5% rally in the second half of December, many of the distribution-days over the recent 25 trading period have lost their relevance. The DD-count shows positive. - number of stocks making new 52w lows is still higher than number of stocks making new 52w highs - alarm signal! - number of stocks trading below their 200d MA > number of stocks above their 200d MA - alarm signal! - up/down volumes still below their 50d MA's and below 1 - alarm signal! - the advance decline line significantly improved over the last two weeks and is now trending upwards. This could be a very promising signal as this is a leading indicator. - bulls vs bears is a contrarian indicator which also improved over the last to weeks. Overall, momentum swing traders can be somewhat optimistic going into 2022. For now, risk is still on an elevated level and swing traders should not yet get too aggressive. Take a few smaller pilot positions and if things start working in your own portfolio, start to increase exposure.
AMEX:DIALong
by JS_TechTrading
$SPY Strong support, but strong resistance too... Hello Traders, I hope you had a great day. Today we saw an interesting sentiment shift as soon as AAPL started falling off; with news of an iPhone supply shortage guidance adjustment, the supply chain and and inflation worries took over. The interesting thing about inflation is that it's partially psychological. When we see rising prices or missing things on the shelf, we think the worst, and it's almost self fulfilling with our collective reaction; causing risk-off, bond buying, and a ripple across the markets. Do I think supply bottlenecks from the pandemic matter? Of course. Do I also think just about everyone who wants an iPhone will wait to get their iPhone... Also yes. Just like some demand was pulled forward from the pandemic, other demand will be pushed backward. So, where are we going next? Well, that's a tricky question, the pulse of the markets have been a little tough to pinpoint. I've boxed on the attached chart, where I think we churn in the short term. It appears that we are literally sitting right around the Strongest Support and the Strongest Resistance on this chart (notice the POC for several periods). Therefore, we will likely need to either churn it out till it weakens S/R and we breakout... Or we see a strong catalyst in one or the other direction... I do see some signs of the bull's returning, but we shall see. Please leave some feedback and hit the like/follow. Cheers, Mike
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading