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USD JPY - November Walk upon breakout Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Note adding longs are in position and further can be added upon breakout of 8hour analysis below. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. This is a public upload after private idea is now offered, review the analysis below. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances for USD JPY These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Since the previous analysis update - price has now reached the monthly zone between 109.6 - 111.8X which has is show below. Where we are now Price has consolidated upon the weekly and daily showing a corrective move occurring but the shorter term retracement is forming nicely upon the 61.8% . Weekly Chart Upon the weekly chart price has created a long opportunity which extended out of the previous weekly imbalance and has created a new zone. Price had corrected upon an engulfing breakout candle after a consolidation wave which adopted the next move. Upon the breakout of this zone, price now walks up to the monthly imbalance and once the zone is breached, price is expected to retrace to build on the order block as a reversion pivot. Using the Fibonacci sequence and combination of the price pivoted back to the -0.27 and 0.618% which both align. So from this rejection, using probability the imbalance has now formed a strong block. Using the replay bars - price had moved exactly where the price was forecast. The previous analysis from March 2021 showed this clearly. Previous analysis's Original - Updated - Note* , adapt to the longer term scenario. Four & Eight hour correctional pattern The correctional pattern shows a reliable trading pattern in terms of correcting from an impulse move. Price has offered multiple tests creating lower highs and establishing lower lows in the correctional move, but as the consolidation build up exchanges in this zone - price is continuing to fall towards the level desired at the pivot point. Looking at the Four Hour chart now - price has shown descending patterns and simple break and retest patterns a like to catch the shorter term day trading moves. From a patient trader who trades positions or swings - catching a correctional hedge from the top or awaiting buys is why we wait as the choppiness of the market here is clear liquidity for advanced traders. Two opportunities of are of interest in the four hour channel. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Firstly isolating the US05Y-US02Y chart monthly Using Imbalances and Fibonacci - two trades are identified with a selling example , and to the right a buying opportunity is clear where Yields are representing a change of hands The monthly shows upon an imbalance formation a buying opportunity for break and retests and also with the aggressive minded who react upon the pivot point - a long opportunity is present. Note how both failed upon the 0.382% on the selling imbalance correction and now the buying imbalance correction. The weekly Highlights the opportunities further enhanced views. Again both trades follow the top to bottom and now bottom to top reverse analysis. Here is the daily current scenario for the treasuries. The 0.382 held, with the weekly zone not required as the pivot zone supported the bullish imbalance from the weekly zone so an upper imbalance in the "walking up" had been created. Where we are now in terms of the cross-asset comparison: Tracking the DXY - view the analysis at the bottom to track further. the DXY and USD JPY are all showing a clear presence where the path is in correlation and now it is providing probabilities in favour for long additions as the causation is at peak markets but at the same time flows of funds are being moved from profit takers to new asset classes and as well as the USD showing it's strength as fundamentals are in play behind the scenes such as CPI jumps, consumer confidence and also GDP metrics. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
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