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$XAUUSD Gold | Are We Looking at a Local Top Here?Looking at Gold again, I’m going a bit out on a limb and saying: There’s a good chance we’ve just seen a local top — at least for the coming weeks. Last time I was pretty spot on with my target after being wrong about the top. I wanted to see $2,955, and Gold ended up reaching $2,956.5 — missing my level by just $1.50. Totally fine, especially considering the huge rally that followed. But now it looks like that rally might be losing steam. We’re currently trading between the 127.2% and 138% Fibonacci extension levels, specifically between $3,225 and $3,250. That’s a zone I see as highly likely for a short-term correction. Possible downside targets? First $3,146, then lower at $3,034, and ideally even a move back toward $2,900. Of course, a lot will depend on macro news, especially from the US — tariffs, geopolitical risks, and overall market sentiment. If Gold pushes above $3,300, then this whole scenario gets invalidated and I’d switch to an alternative setup that I haven’t detailed here yet. The RSI is also sitting deep in overbought territory, with multiple bearish divergences building — which supports the idea of a pullback. But as always: Just because the RSI is overbought doesn’t guarantee an immediate drop. We still need price confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by stromm
1
Google - Fantastic Bullish Break And Retest!Google ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) just looks amazing: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 For more than a decade, Google has been trading in a rising channel formation, perfectly respecting all market structure. Now, Google is about to retest the previous all time high once again and with a sharp correction of about -25%, this offers a significant bullish reversal setup. Levels to watch: $150 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by basictradingtv
23
Dow Jones - Value Is The King Of 2025!Dow Jones ( TVC:DJI ) withstands all bearish struggles: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 All major U.S. indices have been weakening lately but the Dow Jones is clearly the strongest of all. It seems like big institutions are shifting back to value stocks and therefore the Dow Jones remains very strong. Looking at technicals, this trend is rather likely to continue during 2025. Levels to watch: $40.000, $50.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:DJILong
by basictradingtv
8
Gold ChatGPT: Chart Analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) – April 08, 2025 – 1-Hour Timeframe Key Observations: 1. Trend and Price Action: - The price of Gold is currently in a downtrend, as indicated by the red trendline showing lower highs and lower lows. The price has recently broken below the previous support level, signaling a continuation of the bearish movement. - The resistance zone near 3,141.64 remains a significant barrier for any upward movement, while the support level at 2,960.00 is holding the price from falling further. 2. Order Block and FVG (Fair Value Gap): - The order block located at 3,138.95 to 3,141.64 has been a key area where price rejection occurred. The price approached this area but failed to break above, indicating strong selling pressure. This … ChatGPT: - The target for the current bearish setup is 3,021, which aligns with the support level near 2,987.47. If the price continues to decline, this target could be reached soon, with further downside movement expected. - If the price holds at the support level and forms a bullish reversal pattern, it may head back towards the resistance zone. However, until the support level holds, the price is likely to continue the downward trajectory. 4. Volume and Market Sentiment: - The volume shows a consistent decline, confirming the selling pressure. The recent spikes in volume near the support level suggest that the market is reacting to the critical support area. - Market sentiment remains bearish, with the price currently below its recent highs and the resistan… ChatGPT: - Bullish Reversal Scenario: If Gold finds support at 2,960 and forms a bullish pattern (such as a reversal candle or engulfing candle), the price might move towards 3,141.64 again. Conclusion: The price of Gold is currently in a downtrend, facing resistance around 3,141.64 and support near 2,960. Traders should watch for price action near these levels to assess the next move. The target of 3,021 is the key level to focus on, and a breakout below this could lead to further downside. If the support level holds, there could be a potential for a bullish rebound towards resistance.
TVC:GOLDLong
by EXPERT117Ai
Foundation of Technical Trading: What Makes a Chart Tradable?The Foundation of Technical Trading There is an abundance of information on price charts, technical methods, indicators, and various tools. However, the required first step is to understand basic market structure. Without this foundational knowledge, technical applications risk becoming inconsistent and disconnected from broader market behavior. It is also important to question whether technical charts and tools are effective at all. What makes the market responsive to a trendline, a pattern, or an indicator? And why, at other times, do these tools seem entirely irrelevant? Is the market random? If certain events are predictable, under what conditions can such occurrences be expected? Experiment: Random Charts Here is an illustration of four charts; two showing real price data and two randomly generated. While some visual distortion gives away subtle differences, there are more refined methods to construct this experiment that makes telling the difference between real and random almost impossible. All these charts show viable patterns and possible applications. When presented with these, even experienced people tend to construct narratives, whether or not structure is present. This raises a fundamental question; how can one distinguish real occurrences from coincidental formations on a chart? In case all movements are considered random, then this should indicate that applied methods perform no better than coincidence? Bias and Distortion It’s also important to comprehend the influence our perception. As humans we are wired to find patterns, even in random data, which can lead to various cognitive biases that distort our interpretation. For example, confirmation bias may lead us to focus only on evidence that supports our expectations, while apophenia causes us to see patterns where none exist. Similarly, hindsight bias can trick us into believing past patterns were obvious, which can develop overconfidence in future decisions. Awareness of these biases allows us to approach technical tools and charts with greater objectivity, with more focus on probabilistic methods and calculated risks. Experiment: Random Levels Perform the following experiment; open a chart and hide the price data. Then draw a few horizontal lines at random levels. Then reveal the price again. You’ll notice that price can touch or reverse near these lines, as if they were relevant levels. The same thing can happen with various indicators and tools. This experiment shows how easy it is to find confluence by chance. It also raises an important question, is your equipment and approach to the markets more reliable than random? Market Disorder Financial markets consist of various participants including banks, funds, traders and algorithmic systems. These participants operate with different objectives and across multiple timeframes resulting in a wide range of interpretations of market behavior. Trades are executed for various reasons such as speculation, hedging, rebalancing, liquidation or automation; directional intent could be unclear. For instance, the prior may serve to offset exposure, and portfolio rebalancing could require the execution of large orders without directional intent. Technical and chart-based trading likely makes up a minor segment of the overall market; even within this subset, there is considerable variation in perception and interpretation. There could be differences in timeframe, reference points, pattern relevance and responses to similar information. The market is broader, more complex and less definitive than it appears. The point is that markets contain a high degree of structural disorder, which means most assumptions should be questioned and perceived as estimative. The effect of buying and selling pressure on multiple timeframes sets the foundation for oscillation in price movements, rather than linear and monotonic movements. This pattern of rising and falling in a series of waves sets the points for where the current structure transitions between balance and imbalance. An overall equilibrium between buying and selling pressure results in consolidative price movement, whereas dominance leads to trending or progressive movement. Volatility Distribution To answer the main question: What differentiates real market behavior and charts from random data, and ultimately makes it tradable, is the distribution of volatility. This forms the basis for the phenomenon of volatility clustering, where periods of high volatility tend to follow high volatility, and low volatility follows low volatility. It is rare for the market to shift into a volatile state and then immediately revert to inactivity without some degree of persistence. Research supports the presence of this volatility persistence, though with the important caveat that it does not imply directional intent. Volatility Cycles These phases tend to occur in alternation, known as volatility cycles, which set the foundation for tradable price structures. This sequence consists of a contractive phase, marked by compression in price movements, followed by an expansive phase, characterized by increased volatility and directional movement. The alternation reflects shifts in underlying buying and selling pressure. This behavior offers a practical approach to interpret market behavior. A more detailed explanation of the concept could be explored in a future post. Conclusion While the idea of profitability through technical trading is often questioned, it remains a viable approach when based on sound principles. The edges available to the average trader are smaller and less frequent than commonly presumed. The concepts of volatility and the ability to locate areas of imbalance forms the basis for identifying conditions where market behavior becomes less random and more structured. This sets the foundation for developing technical edges. The content in this post is adapted from the book The Art of Technical Trading for educational purposes.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by StockLeave
Dogecoin - You Should Not Be Afraid!Dogecoin ( CRYPTO:DOGEUSD ) could reverse right now: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Four months ago Dogecoin perfectly retested the previous all time high and is now creating the anticipated bearish rejection. However during every bullish cycle we saw a correction of at least -60%, which was followed by a parabolic rally, so there is no reason to be worried at all. Levels to watch: $0.2, $0.5 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by basictradingtv
44
GBP/JPY SELL SETUP 250 PIPS1️⃣ Macro Fundamental Analysis (GBP vs. JPY) 🔹 Interest Rate Differentials (Carry Trade Impact) Bank of England (GBP) The BoE has kept rates high to fight inflation. Higher GBP rates → capital inflows into GBP assets. Bullish for GBP/JPY. Bank of Japan (JPY) BoJ is still ultra-dovish, keeping negative/low interest rates. Japan’s government wants a weak yen to support exports. Bearish for JPY, Bullish for GBP/JPY (carry trade flows into GBP). 📊 Institutional View: Hedge funds & large investors prefer long GBP/JPY due to high interest rate spreads. GBP/JPY remains fundamentally bullish due to carry trade inflows. 🔹 Global Risk Sentiment (Risk-On vs. Risk-Off) GBP/JPY is a "risk-on" pair → it rises when markets are bullish and falls when investors seek safety. If stock markets are bullish, GBP/JPY tends to rise. If there’s a global crisis, investors move into JPY (safe-haven), causing GBP/JPY to fall. Current Market Sentiment: Stock markets are uncertain, but no full risk-off move yet. Watch equity markets & US bond yields for risk sentiment confirmation. 📊 Institutional View: Mild risk-on bias → GBP/JPY has support, but volatility remains high. 🔹 Institutional Positioning (COT Data & Hedge Fund Flows) Hedge funds have been buying GBP against JPY due to the rate differential. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Shows institutional investors are still net long GBP/JPY but reducing positions. Some profit-taking could lead to short-term downside. 📊 Institutional View: Long-term institutional bias is bullish, but hedge funds may reduce positions if risk-off sentiment increases. 2️⃣ Technical Analysis (ITPM Style) – Multi-Timeframe Breakdown 🔹 GBP/JPY (Daily Timeframe) 📈 Trend: Still in an uptrend, but approaching resistance. 📌 Key Resistance: 195.00 - 196.00 📌 Key Support: 191.00 - 190.00 🔹 Price is struggling at resistance near 194.00. 🔹 Possible pullback to 191.50 - 192.00 before resuming higher. 🔹 GBP/JPY (H4 Timeframe) 📉 Short-Term Weakness, but Still in an Uptrend Channel 📌 Key Level to Watch: 192.50 - 193.00 🔹 Bearish Rejection at 194.00, but still inside an uptrend structure. 🔹 If price breaks below 192.50, a deeper correction to 191.00 is likely. 🔹 GBP/JPY (H1 Timeframe) 📉 Intraday Weakness, Watch 192.50 for Breakdown 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 193.50 - 194.00 Support: 192.50 (short-term support), 191.50 (stronger support) 📊 Institutional View: Intraday traders may take short positions below 192.50, targeting 191.50 - 191.00. 3️⃣ Institutional Trade Setup (ITPM Style) 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Short-Term Correction) Entry: Sell below 192.50 (Break of key support). Target: 191.50 → 190.00 (support zone). Stop-Loss: Above 193.50. Rationale: Short-term hedge funds taking profits → minor pullback in bullish trend.
Short
by ShinForex1
CADJPY analysis for a Sell!!!!Here’s a sell-side analysis for CAD/JPY on the 2H chart based on your updated screenshot: ⸻ Pair: CAD/JPY Timeframe: 2H Current Price: ~104.656 Market Bias: Short-term bearish shift from previous bullish trend ⸻ Sell Analysis Overview: 1. Bearish Structure Forming Below 105.300–105.600 • Price recently broke below a major support zone (~105.300–105.600), which is now turning into a resistance zone. • This rejection aligns with the concept of structure flipping — previous support now acting as resistance. • The marked “Sell Structure Forming Below” zone highlights this key area for short positions on pullbacks. 2. Multiple Rejections at 105.866 • There are clear lower highs forming, with repeated rejections around 105.866 (circled). • Each attempt to push higher has failed, showing strong bearish pressure and exhaustion from buyers. 3. Breakdown of Key Moving Averages • Price has closed below both the 50 EMA and 100 EMA, which are beginning to curl downward — a common signal of a trend reversal. • Momentum has shifted, and sellers are currently in control. 4. Liquidity Grab + Breakdown • After a false breakout to the upside, price grabbed liquidity around 105.866 and quickly reversed. • This aligns with smart money behavior: sweeping highs before dropping — a classic bearish trap. 5. Short-Term Target Zone • The current bearish move has a clear downside target in the 103.600–103.800 zone, which is marked as an “Area of Liquidity”. • If this zone breaks cleanly, extended targets sit around 101.800–101.400, where fresh demand and buy structure are likely to form. ⸻ Sell Plan & Risk Management: • Entry Idea: Wait for a pullback into the 105.300–105.600 zone to look for bearish confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing, rejection wick). • Stop Loss: Above 105.866 (invalidates structure) • Take Profit Levels: • TP1: 103.600 (liquidity zone) • TP2: 101.800 (demand zone) • TP3: 101.400 (long-term structure support) ⸻ Final Thoughts: CAD/JPY is now showing early signs of a bearish trend reversal after a clean breakdown of structure and liquidity sweep at highs. As long as the price remains below 105.600, the bias remains bearish. A bounce from 104.500 could temporarily delay the drop, but deeper downside is likely if that level gives way.
Short
by DBFXTrader
Bitcoin - Please Just Listen To The Charts!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) remains in a bullish market: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Despite literally everybody freaking out about cryptos lately, big brother Bitcoin is still creating bullish market structure. During every past cycle we witnessed a correction of at least -20% before we then saw a parabolic rally. So far, Bitcoin is just doing its normal "volatility thing". Levels to watch: 70.000, $300.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
36
AUDUSD 110 buy setup!!The current market structure shows a strong alignment for a potential upward movement, forming a double bottom at a significant support level. This pattern respects both the structural levels and Fibonacci retracement levels. With important news scheduled for release today at 8 PM, particularly positive developments for the dollar could influence market direction. Given the risk-to-reward ratio, it appears favorable to consider positioning for an upward trend. follow me for more breakdown
Long
by ShinForex1
VOE LONGAs you can clearly see the VOESTALPINE AG stock has found support at a key order block, aligning closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement — a typical entry point for smart money. Since then, price action has stabilized and is starting to push higher. The declining short interest ratio suggests bearish pressure is easing, while the rising volume delta points to increasing demand. This confluence could signal accumulation and a potential continuation to the upside. Watching for further confirmation and a clean break above recent highs. #SmartMoney #OrderBlock #VolumeDelta #Fibonacci50 #ShortSqueeze #AccumulationPhase #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketStructure #BullishSetup #PriceAction #Orderflow #SwingTrading #TradingViewIdeas
VIE:VOELong
by osas_eth
TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESM2025) – 3/26/2025 PLAYBOOK# 📊 TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESM2025) – 3/26/2025 PLAYBOOK ## 🟢 SCENARIO 1 (BULLISH) **DIRECTION:** Long **STRUCTURE BIAS:** Bullish **ENTRY LEVEL:** 5,795-5,815 (current zone, buying sell-side liquidity raids) **STOP LEVEL:** 5,785 (invalidate if hourly close below this level) **TARGET LEVELS:** - **Target 1:** 5,880-5900 (Weekly Key High Resistance Level) **R/R RATIO:** ~3:1 (depending on final execution) ### EXECUTION STRATEGY - **Entry Confirmation:** Look for price to raid previous unhit weekly lows (sell-side liquidity) - **Long Entries:** Establish long positions as price successfully raids these lows but fails to sustain below them - **Stop Placement:** Use 5,785 as a hard stop (hourly close below invalidates the trade idea) - **Target:** Take profits at 5880 - 5,900 (Weekly Key High Resistance) ### KEY POINTS - Current price action targeting sell-side liquidity in the form of previous unhit weekly lows - Wednesday typically not a low/high of week formation day, suggesting potential for continued movement - Tomorrow's High Impact News Event (GDP at 8:30 AM) likely to create volatility and could accelerate the move - Bullish structure prevails as long as price maintains above liquidity raid zones --- ## 🔴 SCENARIO 2 (BEARISH) **DIRECTION:** Short **STRUCTURE BIAS:** Bearish after bullish extension **ENTRY LEVEL:** 5,880-5910 (Weekly Key High Resistance Level) **STOP LEVEL:** 5,9550 (invalidate if hourly close above this level) **TARGET LEVELS:** - **Target 1:** 5,740 (Weekly Opening Gap upper boundary) **R/R RATIO:** ~3:1 (depending on final execution) ### EXECUTION STRATEGY - **No Immediate Short:** Wait for price to extend to Weekly Key High Resistance Level (blue line ~5,900) - **Rejection Confirmation:** Look for reversal candles and selling pressure at resistance - **Short Entries:** Establish short positions once price trades below confirmation level after testing resistance - **Stop Placement:** Use 5,925-5950 as a hard stop (hourly close above invalidates the trade idea) - **Scaling Out:** Partial profit near 5,800, hold remaining for potential move to 5,745 area ### KEY POINTS - After liquidity is taken at the Weekly Key High Resistance (blue line), expect manipulation and reversal - Short opportunity emerges only after bulls exhaust momentum at key resistance - Weekly Opening Gap (red zone) remains a significant downside target for next move - Any sustained hourly close above 5,965 **invalidates** this bearish setup ## MARKET BIAS - **SHORT TERM (Today – 1 Day):** - **Bullish** bias as price is likely to find support at current levels and move toward the Weekly Key High Resistance - Current price action suggests accumulation before a move higher - Tomorrow's GDP numbers (8:30 AM) represent a potential catalyst for accelerated movement - **LONGER TERM (1–2 Weeks):** - After testing the Weekly Key High Resistance level (~5,900), expect a reversal and move back toward the Weekly Opening Gap (red zone) - Market structure suggests a "liquidity hunt" pattern – first to the upside, then reversing to the downside - Major liquidity draw currently at the blue line, once exhausted, focus will shift back to the Weekly Opening Gap
CME_MINI:ESM2025Long
by LiquidityTracker
Cardano - Focus On This One Altcoin!Cardano ( CRYPTO:ADAUSD ) will lead the bullish rally: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 It really seems to be unbelievable but Cardano is 100% repeating the previous cycle which we saw back in 2018. A double bottom neckline breakout, followed by a significant rally and another break and retest and Cardano is now clearly heading towards the previous all time high. Levels to watch: $0.6, $2.5 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:ADAUSDLong
by basictradingtv
9
GBPUSD – Bearish Setup Forming | Fair Value Gap Rejection PlayThe 4H chart on GBP/USD shows a clean bearish market structure, with price currently in a corrective phase after recent downside momentum. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) has been identified between the 1.29700–1.30000 range, which acts as a key supply zone for potential short setups. 📊 Technical Breakdown 1. Fair Value Gap (FVG) A visible imbalance was left after an aggressive bearish move—marked in the yellow zone. Price is expected to retrace into this inefficient zone to fill orders before continuing downward. The anticipated entry for shorts is around 1.29798, near the midpoint of the FVG. 2. Bearish Market Structure Lower highs and lower lows dominate the current structure. The bounce is corrective in nature and lacks momentum, indicating a potential bull trap. Expecting a short-term retracement up to the FVG zone, followed by a continuation to the downside. 3. Target Zone Target: 1.28042 — this level sits just above a previous demand zone, making it a natural TP1. This area also overlaps with previous price reactions, giving it high confluence. 🧠 Trade Idea Entry: ~1.29798 (within the FVG) Target: 1.28042 Risk Management : A stop loss above 1.30000 or above the upper boundary of the FVG to account for false breaks. Rationale: Risk-reward is favorable due to tight invalidation zone and strong downside continuation probability. ⚠️ Key Notes Watch for confirmation at the FVG zone such as bearish engulfing or lower timeframe break of structure. If price breaks above 1.3000 and holds, the idea will be invalidated.
Short
by ForexOptimizer
USDJPY SELL SETUP!!From a technical perspective, examining the USD/JPY chart, we might notice that prices are forming a lower high, which often indicates a potential downtrend. The price respecting Fibonacci retracement levels can also suggest that the market is reacting to key support and resistance levels. When traders see the price approaching these levels and behaving predictably, it can bolster their confidence in the direction of their trades. Overall, the expectation is for a continuing strength in the yen, especially if the market sentiment remains focused on potential rate hikes from the Fed. This scenario might lead to more bearish moves for the USD/JPY pair, making it important to watch for any significant economic data releases or comments from central bank officials that could signal changes in monetary policy.
Short
by ShinForex1
3
AUDUSD BUY NOW 120 PipsLooking at the monthly charts, it seems like we've hit a key level where the price has bounced back up nicely. This indicates a shift in the overall trend, making it look like there's potential for some upward movement. Since the DXY (which tracks the strength of the dollar) is weakening, we might be able to ride this wave up and take advantage of the positive momentum in the market. It’s all about following the trend and going with the flow! Risk to reward is very lovely Follow me for your support Thank You
Long
by ShinForex1