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Marketstructure

BTC - tricky to tradeI'll feel more confident about a potential uptrend if we can surpass the ~67k mark, where Monday's high range lies and from which we were rejected on our first bounce. If not, we're likely to continue experiencing volatility in this zone, potentially dipping to yesterday's lows around 61.5k. The 60-59k range—a critical support zone, that should mark the end of any selling, if not we could see another big drop and flush. At this moment, we are still considering scenarios that would see us drop to the 55-48k range as it was our first thought on BTC. In crypto, saying anything is impossible isn't wise as the market is unpredictable. That's why it's crucial to avoid leverage to not get knocked out by such extreme moves. A fall to 55-48k would represent a -30% correction on BTC, which is still perceived as healthy and bullish in the long term. The best strategy now is to endure, stay patient, and hold off on selling your spot purchases until the market trends upwards again.
by stromm
#AUDJPY bullish possible continuation movePrice has correctively reached an important medium-term support zone , which is further reinforced by the presence of the 200EMA. Additionally, we observe that the price has taken out liquidity from the low and formed what appears to be a double bottom pattern. These indications suggest the possibility of a bullish continuation move, potentially driving the price back to previous highs and beyond. If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Long
by mohemati
1
CAPE Fear: Is the Stock Market Headed for a Cliff Dive? A dark cloud hangs over the seemingly sunny skies of the stock market. The culprit? A valuation metric known as the CAPE ratio, which is currently hovering near its third-highest level in history. This has some investors spooked, whispering fears of a potential market plunge. But is this cause for panic, or simply a cautionary sign? The CAPE ratio, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, takes a company's average earnings over the past 10 years into account, rather than just the most recent year. This provides a smoother picture of a company's value and avoids distortions caused by short-term fluctuations. When applied to the entire S&P 500 index, it offers a snapshot of the overall market valuation. Historically, a high CAPE ratio has often preceded significant market downturns. For instance, the dot-com bubble burst of the early 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis were both preceded by elevated CAPE ratios. This correlation has led some to believe that the current high CAPE ratio is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. However, the story isn't quite so black and white. Here are some factors to consider: • Earnings Growth: A key caveat is that high CAPE ratios can be justified by strong corporate earnings growth. If companies are consistently generating more profits, a higher valuation might be warranted. While future earnings are never guaranteed, a healthy corporate sector with robust profit margins can support a higher CAPE ratio. • Interest Rates: Interest rates play a crucial role in stock valuations. When interest rates are low, as they have been for the past decade, stocks become more attractive compared to bonds and other fixed-income investments. This can drive up valuations, even if underlying fundamentals haven't necessarily strengthened. • Investor Psychology: Investor sentiment can also influence the market. If investors are feeling optimistic and bullish, they may be willing to pay a premium for stocks, pushing valuations higher. Conversely, fear and uncertainty can lead to a sell-off, causing a rapid decline in the CAPE ratio. So, what does this mean for the future of the stock market? • Caution is warranted: A high CAPE ratio is a signal that the market may be overvalued. Investors should be cautious and avoid blindly chasing momentum stocks. Diversification and a focus on long-term fundamentals remain crucial investment strategies. • Not a guaranteed crash: A high CAPE ratio doesn't necessarily predict an imminent market crash. It simply suggests that future returns might be lower than those experienced in recent years. • Focus on quality: Instead of chasing high-flying stocks with inflated valuations, investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals, a history of consistent earnings growth, and sustainable business models. The current market situation calls for a balanced approach. While a high CAPE ratio is a reason for caution, it shouldn't trigger panic selling. Investors should be mindful of valuation metrics, but also consider factors like earnings growth, interest rates, and overall economic health. By adopting a prudent investment strategy and focusing on quality companies, investors can navigate this period of uncertainty and potentially weather any potential storms.
SP:SPXShort
by bryandowningqln
S&P bears attack, bulls still holdLast week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didn’t have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldn’t develop this into something more significant, as the bulls returned with a firm "no". The rest of the week continued in the same tug-of-war fashion. The most confusing days were Thursday and Friday. Thursday started very bullish but ended with a dramatic bearish turn. Friday, expected to be bearish, unfolded under the bulls' control. This was a story. Now, let’s now review all the signals more formally: Bearish Signals • Confirmed downtrend on the daily chart, indicated by a lower high and lower low. • Weekly consolidation has begun. Bullish Signals • The week closed right at the previous week's low after price shaped hourly higher low • Friday’s value zone is within the value zone of the previous four days. The context remains very bullish – price is in a strong weekly uptrend, last month closed very strong. Overall, it is a very ambiguous case with neither side having a clear advantage. Buyers are exhausted, yet not willing to capitulate. Bears are attempting to play their game but lack sufficient strength. The short-term outlook is neutral. From this position market can go in any direction. We need additional signs of one side gaining an upper hand. Until then, it is not advisable to place big bets on either side. Wednesday is a very important day, with both the release of inflation data and the FOMC meeting Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
2
The Wash and Rinse To See True Support/ResistanceTrue support and resistance is found in the meat of the move, not at the extreme highs and lows. To find it, Simply draw a zone or box and look for the place that price touches the most, and then pay attention to what happens afterward. In this lesson, I set up a trade plan and show how a Wash and Rinse structure at the pivot of a swing uses the most touches to find true support in a market. I then show how to identify it. The Wash and Rinse has a process that we can follow in real-time. 1. Multi-Pivot Line (MPL) 2. Zoom through the MPL 3. Come back and retest the MPL 4. Zoom back through the MPL the other way What happens in this process, is that buyers are holding some level. Price then busts that level triggering stops and at the same time encouraging shorts to enter. Then price rips back up essentially cleaning the book of orders and showing where the true support is (at least for the time being). Once you can recognize this structure, you can begin making your own observations and use these levels to read a market or begin to build a setup around it. The most important part is to learn to design a plan with objective rules around what you observe. Shane
NASDAQ:RCKTEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
#USDCAD rising wedge pattern breakoutIn case of bearish breakout of a rising wedge pattern base on technical analysis text book, we could expect more bearish move in price. Also we can see in the last bullish move price formed a bearish divergence. Also price managed to shift market structure to bearish in lower timeframe which add to the possibility of bearish move. If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Short
by mohemati
1
#GBPNZD inverted head and shoulder patternAs evident from the chart, the price is not only currently trading towards higher prices within a rising channel line but has also established a valid breakout from a very long-term daily timeframe inverted head and shoulders pattern. This phenomenon suggests a high possibility of a bullish move in this currency pair, and we might witness much higher prices in the future. If this pattern materializes, based on the one-to-one price target projection, we can assume that the price will at least reach the previous top formed on August 21st, 2023, if not higher. However, I recommend waiting for a pullback towards the broken neckline before taking a position on this pair, or alternatively, look for the proper entry point in a lower timeframe based on your strategy. If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Long
by mohemati