Marketstructure
BTC - IchiMoku & Market Structure Set-UpBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Analyzing your IchiMoku time cycle set-up with market structure patterns
BTC continues the slow methodic bearish measured moves.
When will we break out and up to moon, or MARS?
Great rejection off of the Kumo Cloud and the next time cycle, nice play?
Trade-Safe
CADJPY: Strong Reversal After Liquidity GrabEducational Insight
The market surged to the upside, targeting liquidity highs to trigger stop losses. Once liquidity was cleared, price stalled and reversed sharply.
By marking key candle highs and lows, we identified swing points to count the market waves. We applied the 2 Data Points Rule to validate the break of support or resistance—this is a crucial concept in confirming true market structure shifts.
Additionally, we analysed the wavesofsuccess wave structure, focusing on the Momentum Low and what to anticipate when price reaches this level.
🚀 If this insight adds value to your trading, smash the boost and drop a comment!
Blessings.
Market at a Turning Point: Nifty50's Next Big MoveThe chart provided is a daily timeframe analysis of the Nifty50 index, showing key technical levels and possible trade scenarios based on price action. It presents an opportunity for traders to assess potential breakout or breakdown levels and make informed trading decisions.
1. Current Market Scenario (Price Action Analysis)
The Nifty 50 index is currently trading at 23092. The index is moving within a descending triangle pattern, forming lower highs while maintaining support at key levels. Price is consolidating in a narrow range, indicating uncertainty and indecisiveness in the market.
2. Key Technical Zones Identified
A. Resistance Zone (Red Area)
The resistance zone is marked with a downward sloping trendline, highlighting consistent selling pressure. Nifty has faced multiple rejections around this trendline, indicating strong resistance levels. If the index breaks above this level with volume, it could signal the start of a bullish trend.
Key Levels:
Resistance at 23,600 - 24,000. A breakout above 24,000 could lead to a rally towards 25,200-25,600 levels.
B. Support Zone (Green Area)
The support zone represents a crucial price area where buying interest has historically emerged. This zone is critical for maintaining the current trend; breaking below could lead to a bearish continuation. If the index holds this level, it could provide a strong base for an upward move.
Key Levels:
Support at 22,800 - 23,000. A breakdown below 22,800 may trigger a decline towards 21,500-21,000 levels.
C. Monthly Timeframe Support Zone (Thicker Green Line)
A long-term support level derived from a higher timeframe (monthly chart). This level is significant, acting as a major inflection point for long-term investors. A breakdown below this zone may signal a shift in long-term sentiment.
Key Levels:
Strong support around 22,500. A sustained break could lead to deeper corrections.
D. Consolidation Zone (Circled Area)
Nifty is currently consolidating within a tight range inside the descending triangle. This phase usually precedes a strong directional move (either up or down). Traders should wait for confirmation before initiating new positions.
3. Potential Trading Strategies
A. Bullish Scenario (Green Arrow - Upside Move)
Trigger: A breakout above the resistance zone with strong volume and confirmation.
Entry: Buy when the price breaks 23,600-24,000, confirming with bullish candlesticks.
Targets:
First target: 24,800
Second target: 25,600
Long-term target: 26,400
Stop Loss: Below the breakout level around 23,400, ensuring risk management.
B. Bearish Scenario (Red Arrow - Downside Move)
Trigger: A breakdown below the support zone with strong selling pressure.
Entry: Short when the price falls below 22,800, confirming with bearish candlesticks.
Targets:
First target: 22,000
Second target: 21,500
Long-term target: 20,400
Stop Loss: Above the support zone around 23,200, to minimize risk.
4. Risk Management Considerations
Risk-Reward Ratio: Maintain at least a 1:2 ratio, ensuring the reward outweighs the risk.
Trailing Stop Loss: As the price moves favorably, adjust the stop loss to secure partial profits.
Market Sentiment: Keep an eye on global markets and news events that may impact Nifty’s movement.
5. Final Outlook and Recommendation
For Bulls (Buyers): Wait for a breakout confirmation above resistance before entering long positions. Focus on targets around 24,800 and higher.
For Bears (Sellers): Watch for a decisive breakdown below support to enter short trades.
Targets could extend down to 21,500 levels.
For Neutral Traders: Wait for clear confirmation before taking directional trades to avoid false breakouts.
GBP USD Trade Setup Daily Timeframe
On the daily timeframe, GBP USD has broken below a key support level, which has now turned into resistance. and the price is currently rejecting this level.
We will focus on selling opportunities by analyzing the lower timeframes for entry patterns and confirmation.
GBPUSD Expectation From 13th-17th Jan, 2025. The purple zones are the Daily Market structure and where the price is supposed to drop. Expecting a bearish continuation based on the 4H Market Structure. Pricing is currently bouncing at 1.22000, and I anticipate a drop to 1.21000. Before this major move happens, I am looking for price to pull back or consolidate a bit.
NQ Technical chartNQ Analysis
Examining the overall 4-hour trend, we observe a pattern in the downward and upward price movements:
Downward Move (AB): From 22,428.75 to 21,016.75.
Retracement (BC): The upward retracement of BC was exactly 78.6% of the total downward move (AB). Price action moved up to this level before rejecting.
Similarly:
After rejecting at 22,118.75, the price dropped to retest at 20,983.75.
This resulted in another upward retracement (DE) to 21,872.75, which again represented 78.6% of the previous downward move (CD).
On Friday, the lowest tick on NQ was recorded at 20,874.75.
If we apply Fibonacci to the most recent downward move:
The 78.6% retracement level is at 21,674.00, marking a potential area of interest above.
Below, the open areas of interest are:
78.6% retracement at 20,803.50
88.6% retracement at 20,605.75
This highlights key zones for potential price action and reaction points moving forward.
Monday NQ Price Action Prediction Key Levels to Watch:
Support:
20,803.50 (78.6% retracement): Critical support zone.
20,605.75 (88.6% retracement): Deeper support if the lower level is breached.
Resistance:
21,674.00 (78.6% upward retracement): Key resistance zone.
21,872.75: Previous swing high and secondary resistance.
Predicted Scenarios:
Bullish:
A bounce from 20,803.50 could lead to a rally toward 21,674.00.
Breaking above 21,674.00 may push prices to 21,872.75.
Bearish:
Breaking below 20,803.50 could trigger a drop to 20,605.75.
Rejection at 21,674.00 may signal continued downside toward support levels.
GBP/JPY - The Massive Opportunity Most Traders Will Miss!Welcome to today’s market analysis with Mr. Blue Ocean FX! It’s Sunday, January 12, and while the markets are closed, we’re diving into a detailed look at GBP/JPY and the huge opportunities it presents.
Key Highlights:
• Starting on the monthly time frame , we’re observing a ranging market , with higher highs and lows suggesting an overall bullish trend. However, signs point to potential lower prices ahead due to key liquidity levels being tested and rejected.
• On the weekly time frame, a double-top formation near the 199 area hints at bearish pressure. Key neckline support sits around 190, which, if broken, could open the path to targets at 173 and 163.
• Scaling down to the daily and H4 time frames, the market is consolidating, and liquidity sweeps or retests of significant levels could offer high-reward trade setups. We’re also watching for rejection at key resistance levels before potential further downside.
• Key Trading Tip: Markets range 75-80% of the time—recognize these opportunities to trade within consolidation zones!
Trade Setup:
• Watching for lower-high formations or liquidity sweeps to confirm entries.
• Stops will be placed above key resistance levels, with potential short-term targets at 190 and longer-term targets at 173 and 163.
Stay disciplined: “Don’t chase the falling knife!” Always wait for pullbacks or retests to maximize risk-to-reward.
If you found this analysis valuable, don’t forget to like, share, and follow! Comment below with pairs you’d like us to analyze in future videos.
Happy trading and see you next time!
XAU/USD Short Trade Setup | Entry 2690.766 | SL 2700 RR: 1:10Executed a short position on XAU/USD with a strategic entry at 2690.766. Using my standard market structure analysis, I identified a solid resistance level and potential downside momentum. Placing a stop loss at 2700 to manage risk and targeting 2593.019 for a solid risk-to-reward ratio. Ensuring a calculated approach with every trade.
Textbook Reversal Setup: Liquidity Zone + Channel BreakReversal Setup Analysis: HTF Liquidity Zone + Ascending Channel Breakdown
This chart highlights a high-probability bearish reversal setup based on key technical confluences. Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of the analysis:
1. High-Timeframe (HTF) Liquidity Zone (LQZ):
- The red zone marks a major HTF supply area where price previously rejected with a strong impulsive move downward. This liquidity zone is critical as it represents an area where institutional players have shown activity, creating a high-probability region for a potential reversal.
- As price approached this zone again, it did so in a corrective manner (via an ascending channel), which indicates weakening bullish momentum.
2. Impulsive vs. Corrective Structures:
- Impulsive Move: The strong move away from the HTF LQZ (highlighted earlier in the chart) confirms bearish intent, serving as a key reference point for this trade idea.
Corrective Structure: The price forms an ascending channel on the way back to retest the HTF LQZ, signaling exhaustion of buyers.
- The third touch of the channel’s trendline coincides with the HTF LQZ, adding confluence for a potential bearish reversal.
3. Liquidity Zones in Play:
- HTF Liquidity Zone (Supply): Serves as the key resistance level and primary rejection zone.
- 15-Minute Liquidity Zone (Demand): Acts as a potential target for bearish momentum post-breakdown.
- This multi-timeframe liquidity alignment strengthens the trade idea by providing clear areas of interest for entry, stop-loss, and take-profit placement.
4. Breakdown Entry and Structure:
- Entry Trigger: The trade is triggered on the break of structure, where price falls through the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This breakdown confirms bearish momentum resuming after the corrective phase.
- Stop-Loss Placement: Ideally placed above the HTF liquidity zone and beyond the third touch of the channel to account for potential fake-outs.
- Take-Profit Levels: Targets can be set near the 15M liquidity zone or prior swing lows for a solid risk-to-reward ratio.
5. Key Takeaways:
- This setup offers an excellent example of combining HTF liquidity zones, structural patterns, and market context to develop a high-probability trade idea. The rejection from the HTF LQZ aligns with the broader bearish narrative, while the ascending channel acts as a corrective structure leading to a continuation of the downward move.
- By focusing on confluence factors like liquidity zones, impulsive vs. corrective moves, and structural breaks, this trade idea demonstrates a disciplined and strategic approach to trading reversals.
Educational Insights:
- Always zoom out to identify HTF zones of significance to ensure alignment with the larger market context.
- Differentiate between impulsive and corrective structures to gauge the strength and intent of price movements.
- Use pattern confluences (e.g., ascending channels) in combination with key zones to identify high-probability entries.
- Prioritize patience and discipline by waiting for clear structural breaks to confirm your setup.
NQ may have found a little Support to continue its climb.After a healthy, needed pull back, the NASDAQ may have found the support it needed to finish its climb with the inauguration soon to come at the end of the month. Price has not been comfortable below the middle Keltner channel band during this push-up over the last few weeks. The MACD and and RSI look prime for a turnover, and Fridays push-up off of Thursdays Liquidity sweep, sets us up nicely for a move up. At the very least, there's a good chance we test some of these levels for the upcoming week.
Micron Technology - The perfect chart!NASDAQ:MU is one of these stocks, which just respects every level, cycle and structure.
If I would give each chart an individual rating, the chart of Micron Technology would be 10 out of 10. Micron Technology is actually respecting every structure level and providing textbook trading opportunities. If we get a retest of the previous all time high, which is now turned support and perfectly lining up with the support of the rising channel, I will certainly look for longs.
Levels to watch: $90
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
BTCUSDT SHORT IDEA. BASED ON LIQUIDITY AND MARKET STRUCTUREWhile the long-term direction of the premier crypto is upwards, with targets at 250k, a slight correction to the previous ATH isn't out of contention.
On that note, I'm expecting a drop from around the 100k level towards the previous ATH around 70k-ish.
Why 100k? It is both a valid technical and psychological level. Technically, 100k rests at the Internal Range liquidity for the present price leg.
Not a financial advise. Do your own research.
41-Day Sentiment mastery missionGM WARRIORS
I'm on a mission to master the SuperTrend indicator by testing all 42 combinations of its key settings: Factor, ATR (Average True Range), and Time Periods.
Each day, I’ll backtest 50 trades on a new combination to refine a 15-minute day trading system, focusing on trend precision and market sentiment. The combinations include:
21 Factors (2.0 to 4.0 in 0.1 increments).
2 Timeframes (15M and 30M).
Goal: Identify the optimal SuperTrend configuration, master early trend reversals, and sharpen market insights within a month.
Results will be shared daily via a public sheet and incorporated into my ongoing SuperTrend study. If you’d like updates, let me know, and I’ll tag you in this journey!
📊 Progress Sheet: docs.google.com
📘 SuperTrend Study: docs.google.com
Below is a quick, high-level read on what the chart suggests for1. Recent Downward Momentum
Price has clearly dropped from a swing high (around the mid‑21,400s to 21,480 area) and is now trading in the low 21,300s.
The series of lower highs on the way down suggests near-term bearish pressure or at least a corrective pullback.
2. Key Support Zones
There’s a notable support band around 21,280 – 21,250 (green boxes/lines on your chart). This area appears to have propped the market up once already.
Below that, the next region of interest is near 21,200 – 21,180, which may act as a secondary support if the first zone fails.
3. Overhead Resistance
Near-term resistance looks to be the 21,360 – 21,400 zone. The market rejected in that region not long ago.
A break and hold above 21,400 could indicate buyers are regaining control, potentially setting up a run toward prior swing levels in the 21,450–21,480 range.
4. Volume Profile Observations
There’s heavier volume around the mid-21,200s and again in the upper 21,300s/21,400 region. These are likely to remain “hot spots” where price may stall or pivot due to heavier trading activity.
The 21,250–21,280 band also shows a fair amount of transactional volume, reinforcing that support zone.
5. Short-Term Bias
As long as price stays below the 21,360–21,400 ceiling, the immediate tilt is mildly bearish or consolidative, leaning negative.
If bulls manage a strong push above 21,400, it would suggest short-term buyers are stepping in; failing that, watch for a retest of the 21,250 zone or potentially the 21,200 handle.
Bottom Line
Short-Term Bearish Bias: Lower highs and a clear downward swing off recent highs.
Immediate Supports: 21,280 → then 21,250 → deeper support near 21,200.
Immediate Resistances: 21,360 → 21,400 → beyond that, 21,450+.
Keep an eye on how price reacts at those volume-rich zones—if momentum breaks above 21,400, that could quickly shift sentiment more bullish in the immediate term. If support near 21,280/21,250 fails, expect a further leg down.