Pendle - scalp setupGoing to try this short here on Pendle, Pendle looks good but the daily supply should hold on the lower time frame and therefore shorting this here with support from the bearish RSI divergence. Used small size here.
Marketstructure
THE KOG REPORTKOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we wanted the lower support level to hold up the price to give us the opportunity to long into the order region above, which gave us a fantastic start to the week. We then said we wanted to short from the order region back down, but due to FOMC and CPI we would be looking for extreme levels above. Once price re-entered our order region we did continue with the plan but the range and accumulation meant we couldn’t complete the move down that we wanted, however, still getting a decent trade down.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Simple one this week!
We have potential to start the week with short movement within the range we have plotted on the chart. The resistance level above sits at 2345-50 which needs to hold the price down for us to see a further move downside into the lower support region below, and potentially complete our plan from last week’s KOG Report.
Support 2320 is the hurdle this week and needs to be broken forcefully for us to then have more confidence in the move. The problem we have this week again is this sideways range, and for that reason we’re going to throw a curveball into the mix, which we need traders to be extremely careful of. IF that resistance level above breaks, and we bounce aggressively from below, there is a huge chance we’re going to see this attempt to take liquidity from the higher regions 2370-5 which is a key level for this week and also the extension of the move. So please, traders make sure to stick with your risk model, we’ll trade it the KOG way, level to level, stay the right side of it and expect some extreme movement.
KOG's Bias for the week:
Bearish below 2345 with targets below 2320 and below that 2295
Bullish on break of 2345 with targets above 2355 and above that 2370
As above, it’s a short one this week, we’ll update it as we usually do during the course of the week.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Follow up on the ES1! overextensionAnyone who has read my recent post will have noticed that we are tracking the increasingly over-expansive market in the CME_MINI:ES1! . If the trend is indeed our friend, then prices should remain moving upwards. Which is what I expect will happen. But in order to go into a strong uptrend, first some levels of support must be tested, or else we risk overexpanding even more. At which point, buying would become extremely dangerous. To avoid this risk, it's better to buy at discounted prices and hoping the price does indeed go ballistic. This is much preferable to buy while price is increasing, as many novice traders do due to FOMO.
With a new local maximum in place, we can safely say that a solid support has been created, yet it hasn't been tested. This in combination with the short term MA and the 2nd STD could provide additional support to the area. Making it a safe bet it won't go through. However, if this were to occur, then this would be a sign of a debilitating stock market and could potentially cause a crash. As there is a very large gap between our current supports and the previous ones. Which could lead markets to panic. I don't believe it's time yet, I think we are still missing a strong and not so long-lived final wave before we lose momentum and then crash.
Tesla Restet seting up for new uptrendHere is quite visible how tesla tested its support recently. As it had been mentioned on a previous idea, this level has become a critical one for short term price action. However, seeing price swing up in this manner and then finding support in the 2 moving averages, I find it hard to believe price will drop back to test the structure. If structure is broken, then price will indeed go lower. But I don't think that will be the case. Most likely, we are about to enter an uptrend
Gold Massive Sell Setup!!Based on the daily timeframe, a downside structure is clearly forming. I strongly anticipate this to be a fake out leading to a massive drop during the New York session!
NOTE: Proper risk management Please
Follow me for more breakdown!!
Market overview / part9!me Going Over My Full Strategy In Great Detail. And WHat Trades I Will Take Very Soon!
The Massive Potential of June's BULL-RUNNow that all of the speculations are pointing to the approval of the Ethereum ETFs , along with the positive CPI reports this week, it's safe to assume that we're about to break out of the current accumulation period.
After +60 days of correction, everyone is eager to explore the potential of the next bull-run, so let's delve right into it. HOLD YOUR BREATH!
- STAGE ONE: MAKING A NEW HIGHER HIGH
In case you haven't noticed, on the 4th of this May, we have already broken out of the downtrend that lasted since the first day of April. However, we haven't made any higher high yet, so the bearish structure is technically still valid.
Thanks to a whole bunch of good news and won rounds for crypto in the regulatory and judicial war, starting with RIPPLE surviving court and -hopefully- ending with the Ethereum ETFs approval, a break of the bearish structure seems inevitable to me, leading to a surge towards the 700B milestone.
This is going to significantly refresh the alt-coins market, making up for April's harsh losses.
- STAGE TWO: SELLING THE ETHEREUM ETF NEWS
Now that things are looking greenish for the bulls, it's time for the exchanges to make money too. A minor correction and a retest of the 700B level would be reasonable, liquidating a ton of long positions, reigniting the trauma of the resistance that ended the February - March Mini bull-run and shaking more and more hands.
And of course, there's the excuse of 'selling the news' for the exchanges to use before liquidating the crypto Futures market.
I expect the traditional Alt-coins (ETH, XRP, ADA, etc..) and AI coins to perform extremely well at this stage.
- STAGE THREE: THE JUNE BULL-RUN
May wasn't as tough as we had expected, right?
Well, this cycle is just getting started surprising us. As June approaches, Alts should see positivity due to the impact of the adoption of Ethereum. And of course, the largest piece of that green cake will be handed to the holders of any Alts related to Ethereum.
We should see AI coins continuing their dazzling performance, promising projects related to RWA and Solana's competitors performing really well at this stage.
I expect this stage to end when Ethereum makes its new ATH and as July approaches, then we should see Bitcoin taking back the lead and making its REAL ATH. Because.. you know.. 73K wasn't a real ATH (whispers).
In my opinion, this scenario can be invalidated in two cases ..
First case is if the Ethereum ETFs get disapproved.
Second case is if we somehow revisit the current cycle bottom (highlighted on the chart).
So that was it! My humble advice?
- DO NOT use leverage, you don't need to challenge the exchanges and risk your capital. Enjoy a happy and calm June by buying your favorite coins on the Spot market.
- DO NOT hold your alts for too long after Ethereum makes its new ATH. Bitcoin has to take back the lead and make its way to a new ATH. Don't worry, you will get many new opportunities during Bitcoin's bull-run.
Note: This was an exploration of a potential scenario based on the current context and state of the market, not financial advice.
ORDI - HTF setupEven though it is risky we are looking for this ORDI bid here on the Daily Demand as ORDI comes closer to the possible entry. ORDI in exeption to the other coins has had it's break of structure and we think if ETH is going to turn, ORDI should be relatively strong but remember tomorrow is FOMC day and it is going to get volatile so manage your risk accordingly please.
⚡️ORDI Limit
Entry: $50.01
SL: $43.12
Target: tba
Possible break of market structureI've been bullish on tesla as I like the company and is currently in a very long-lasting swing low, however if price drops more than this minimum it is possible that market structure will break and will test the lows again. If we do see a break in market structure, then the first proposed trade of the referenced idea will fail. However, the second trade still stands, we buy and hold Tesla. It has solid financial fundamentals and has an amazing brand. I seriously doubt there would be further losses in this company. I will eventually talk about my fundamental analysis, but that won't be right now.
GBPJPY still gives bearish sentiment$$$Took a short yesterday that went according my analysis. After a retracement and doing further analysis my bias is still leaning heavily towards the downside. The monthly nor has the weekly high been breach to make a new higher high. Right now, i'm looking at a rejection on the 4hr and 1hr timeframes that looks to be hitting resistance inside of a fair value gap. My intentions is to dropdown into a lower time frame and look for an entry to short the market.
The Asian and London highs has been breached absorbing liquidity in the form of buystops. After a low or high is taken price usually runs up about 20-30 pips more before making a correction or trend reversal.
Everyone have a safe and productive trading week!!!
Are we heading into euphoria or a technical reset?Here we can clearly see that the market structure keeps trending up, in very aggressive manners. Many technical resets have been made, and recently we went through one that lasted almost the entire Biden administration. Even though this reset is great for price action, it seems that it is quickly becoming parabolic. If price continues to behave in this manner, then we could be headed into euphoria. It's crazy to think that the yield curve has been inverted for this long.
Failure to reset technicals could bring us into a period with great short term yield. This could potentially captivate novice traders to become overconfident. Start paying attention to people around you if we keep on trending upward. Is your common foe suddenly talking about stocks and investments? I personally don't feel that way yet. But I can't deny the excitement people feel of finally reaching new time highs.
I'm not saying we are heading into a crash right now. But technicals and fundamentals are beginning to line up for what seems to be extreme optimism with flashing warning signs. I don't feel too confident in this market and would prefer to be buying at lower prices and see price trend up slower. A reset is necessary, or else we will be headed into an unhealthy and very violent uptrend.
GBPJPY is looking bearish$$$After doing top down analyst my bias is leaning towards GJ heading to the downside. I see multiple touches on the daily timeframe that have rejected the monthly fair value gap. I hope you all have profitable trading week.
EP-199.631
SL-199.831
Market Overview Part 7!Me Going Over My Mindset And Strategy To Take You In To My World On How I Trade!
Market Overview And Showing Off My Live Account Part 6Me Going Over My Full Strategy In Deep Detail. Plus Live Account Too
Quick Market overview Part 5 Me going Over My full Strategy In Deep Detail And How I Am Able To Trade From Anywhere!
Could we have bottomed early?Local maximums don't tend to follow the pattern of respecting overextensions like minimums do. This is mostly based on the positive bias people have of the future. Seeing a close this strong is a strong enough sign for the indicator of short term trend to become positive. If this is true then we should start pushing to new high, but if the market does so it risk overextending again but with the coming elections one could expect for the incumbent party to try to inflate stocks to have strong image heading into the polls. But by doing so it creates a high risk of over estimulation which could result in a time of euphoria followed by a crash. It's been 4 years since the 2020 crisis. The mode for recessions is every 3 to 4 years. If technicals begin to overextended and fundamentals to keep up, we might be headed to a new crisis. Technicals need to reset before going forward.
Possible entries to a Liverpool LongThis seems like a great buying point, looking at all the technicals, it would be hard for price to keep pushing down. However, the moving averages do tend to work as resistance and support, so it could be possible for price to drop there. However, It's unlikely price will continue to move down by much. And if so, price is likely to keep on rising. As this company has proven to be a go-to store for Mexicans looking for presents during the holidays, special events, sports gear and many others. Despite big competitors, this brand has lasted the test of time.
ROSE - Selling the TopWe have two setups here in either direction we have been screening ROSE and ONDO for quite a while now and we want to bid both this short and the long. We let those things run over the night, therefore we play it with a hard stop.
On ROSE we have been ranging for quite a while and we finally broke out and cleared out the imbalances that have settled on the sell off candle on the 12.04 the supply needs to be flipped in order to be bullish. Even tough BTC seems to hold it's level nicely we think this daily supply is too much for ROSE to flip. As a target we are eying the POC at $0.0927 but we are going to take profits on the way down.
You will find ONDO here -
ONDO - low time frame setupOn Ondo on the other hand we are looking for long setup on the lower time frame. It seems as ONDO is topping out on the lower time frame and even with other coins pushing ONDO has some problems following other alts. If the trendline is getting lost, as we anticipate, we could witness a quick sell off into the FVG 2H. We want to bid mid FVG with the support down below. Stop loss is right below the support zone and the target are the current wicks but it could continue even higher.
ASIR.N0000📈 Stock ASIR closed at 23.9 on 31/05/2024
🔹 Resistance Level: 25
🔹 200 EMA: 24.8
🔹 Last Friday's candle: Pin Bar
The recent pin bar candle suggests a potential reversal, with the 200 EMA acting as a significant resistance level at 24.8. Keep an eye on this stock as it approaches the 25 resistance level.
Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
MARKET STRUCT USING ICT CONCEPTThe Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concept in trading, developed by Michael J. Huddleston, offers a comprehensive approach to understanding and navigating market structure. ICT emphasizes the importance of market structure, which refers to the organization and arrangement of various market components, such as support and resistance levels, trends, and price patterns. This approach involves identifying key levels where institutional investors might be placing orders, understanding liquidity pools, and recognizing the behavior of smart money. By focusing on these elements, traders can better predict market movements, identify high-probability trade setups, and manage risks effectively. The ICT methodology combines technical analysis with a deep understanding of market dynamics to provide traders with a robust framework for making informed trading decisions.
Median Lines and Finding the Right Path When it comes to learning about markets and trading, finding the right path and committing to it is the hardest part. The right path has little to do with any technical analysis method. It has to do with structuring our mental framework so that we fundamentally change how we experience markets, trading, and loss.
In the video, I show some Median Line and Action/Reaction work but this work is useless by itself. No tool is good or bad, they are just tools we use to comprehend markets. The problem arises when the tools start using us and we think there is some kind of magic to them.
The essence of our strategy should be to structure our methods and mindset towards functionality. The journey we should commit to is one marked by fostering accountability and responsibility in all our actions. The swing trade Idea I show, takes method and structures it into function.
Shane
NIFTY 660+ Points GainAfter a massive week of 660+ points gain, NIFTY has given a SHORT opportunity yesterday.
Days of volatility, guys! BIG money. Everybody is talking about the co-relation of election results.
And why not, market being driven by fundamentals in full power and josh.
A big move is still pending, I dont know if thats gonna happen on Monday 3rd June, 4th June or 5th June. There is a possibility of big gap-ups and gap-downs on these days, specifically.
So, BTST traders, you better watch out and be careful. Risk management is key.
Also, position sizing needs to be watched. You would not want to go in big with a hope to capture big move, only to witness a rude reversal.
NO POSITION IS ALSO A POSITION!
So, be careful, and enjoy the fireworks, gonna start any time now.
