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Crowdstrike May Signal Stock Market Top But Crypto Trump Pump!Traders, I tried very hard to upload a video to the TV platform today but was unsuccessful. It may be that TV is also affected in some ways by the Crowdstrike update, I don't know? Needless to say, my video will not be shown here and due to house rules I am unable to say where you might find it or if it is even available. So, in keeping with those rules, I will only give the written preview of what the video will be when/if I can eventually upload to Tradingview. Sorry for the inconvenience. Here is my prelude to the video that I made for this post. ----- To help us understand the broad, over-arching view and where our economy may be headed, both in the U.S. and abroad, we must sometimes tackle some subject matter that appears to be political on the surface and makes some people rather uncomfortable. But if we are going to be accurate traders, then we also need to be honest. Being honest involves setting aside our political dogma and preferences and viewing current events with as little bias as possible. Removing bias involves removing emotion. Let's attempt to do that today as I dive in with a closer inspection of the Crowdstrike-caused Microsoft BSoD outage and discuss Trump's recent assassination attempt. We are going to cover how each of these recent events has impacted the stock market and our crypto space. If this subject matter makes you uncomfortable, you may want to skip this video. I'm cutting straight to the chase here and I'll explain why it matters. You see, I learned the hard way a long time ago that if you want to make money in this market then you have to understand what the world rulers are up to and what their end game might be. It's often uncomfortable to explore motives here because they appear to be so uncompassionate, calloused, and uncaring, but we must put them on the table as options at least if we are going to determine market direction and become the best traders that we can be. Following the money and potential motives of the deep state(s) can help us win. This is what we'll do a bit of in today's video. Enjoy.
NASDAQ:CRWDShort
by stewdamus
1
Major clues in USD indicate Bear market Late summer/ early fallHi guys. When trading its always important to learn/educate to find an edge on the markets. There are so many charts you can access to analyze/compare, etc. Its known that many ticker symbols can be used in certain ways to help understand markets in a deeper way. The DXY or U.S. Dollar Index is an asset that i use to assess Risk mentality. So keeping it simple: If dollar RISES -> it indicates a RISK OFF mentality -> so people leave risky investments to enter the safety that is cash If dollar FALLS in price -> it indicates a RISK ON mentality -> this means peoplpe are leaving the safety of the dollar to take risk in other investments. Im bringing you this analysis to assess the health of the broader markets and whether or not we are at risk of a down fall/ recession especially with tensions significantly rising in the Middle east. So jumping right in. I got 3 Red resistance trend lines drawn. This trendline, in part reflects Bull runs in broader markets. 2 from past history 1 which is associated with our current Price action. As you can see, this Resistance begins at the TOP price of DXY. Price is then supressed from a certain amount of time, before a breakout back ABOVE. Everytime we have broken the resistance trendline. The dollar starts a massive Bull run when measured: The 1st one lasted about 700 days The 2nd one lasted about 460 days. So the question i asked was how does this relate to the S&P and other markets. Does the breakout above resistance from the start cause drops in all markets? When i looked, i was surprised. Fall in other markets does NOT happen right off the breakout. In fact, when i measured after the resistance breakouts it takes roughly 133-189 days before S&P begins a BEAR market. As indicated by black lines. 1st example it took 133 days after breakout 2nd example took 189 days after breakout. We have recently broken out ABOVE the red resistance trendline. So if you consider previous history, our next Bear market i believe will begin sometime late Summer or early Fall. Now remember previous history does not have to repeat. It just helps us find patterns and consider things. It is however possible, if actual war does breakout. Things may change, as it would be considered a Black swan event. However, until it happens this is the likely scenario in my OPINION. Our current movements i think is just a pullback before continuing higher. __________________________________________________________________________________ Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again. Stay tuned for more updates on DXY in the near future. If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again. DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
TVC:DXYLong
by SafofAllTrades
RSI Negative Divergence: Possible Market Pullback (SPY, QQQ)UNDERLYING PRINCIPLE: Divergence between Futures/Stocks/ETFs and their Relative Strength Index (RSI) can be used to predict a bottom or a top. This method is more useful in determining a reversal in overall market than an individual stock. To elaborate the principle let's assume the market is making higher highs but corresponding RSI is making lower highs. Together this uptrend in the market and downtrend in RSI show that the market is losing strength as it is climbing up. Which essentially implies a reversal/pullback in the market. The same principle can also be applied in determining a possible bottom in the market. Say if the market is making lower lows and corresponding RSI is making higher lows. In that case we can expect an upward reversal of the market. Current Scenario: Possible Pullback To inspect the current market I used weekly and daily charts for Nasdaq and S&P 500 ETFs NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY . In NASDAQ:QQQ weekly the negative divergence is eminent as the ETF is making higher high but the RSI is making lower high. If we zoom further into a daily setup then the same negative divergence can be spotted: For AMEX:SPY on the other hand no divergence can be observed on a weekly setup: But on a daily setup a Negative Divergence can be detected: Recent History: Bear Market Bottom As you can see in both weekly charts, the recent bear market bottom has been identified using the same method: A Positive Divergence. Thanks for reading.
AMEX:SPY
by Trading-Economist
$MSFT at the top?Even though briefly NASDAQ:MSFT became the most valuable company in the world based on market cap. From an Elliott point of view we might be on minor wave 5 of intermediate wave (5). After a top a correction always occurs. So be careful out there and look for signals to support this correction. What is your opinion? Up or down from here. Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational and educational purposes and does not serve as financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by WavesInvesting
1
Sell NVDA NowNVDA stock has topped. The run is over. And institutions are using Wednesday's earnings beat as a final chance to sell their shares while they can. Over the last 4-6 weeks we have witnessed many of these leading names roll over and retrace beneath their 50-day moving average – a key level that generally supports top stocks through the move higher. Despite the recent pullback in the market, Nvidia has held at its highs. Wednesday after the close, Nvidia reported earnings. And the results were better than anyone could have expected... Earnings $2.70 per share versus estimates of $2.08. Sales were $13.5 billion – 20% above expectations. And the company raised forward guidance (how much they expect to bring in next quarter) from $12 billion to $16 billion. They also announced a $25 billion share buyback which should act to propel the stock price even further. Investors got everything they wanted and then some. NVDA stock shot up 10% after hours. The news was so good, the entire Nasdaq index shot up 1% on the news. But Thursday, in the first few hours of trading, all of those gains were gone. The Nasdaq opened higher, and immediately began selling off. It fell 3% during the session. And NVDA was back where it closed the day before. This, to me, is a clear signal that the 2023 rally in tech stocks is over. The high was likely made on July 19th, and I doubt we see that level again this year. The 2023 high is in - both for the Nasdaq and Nvidia stock. Institutional sellers are very clearly selling into the good earnings news and using the demand as a chance to exit their multi-billion-dollar positions. Do not make the mistake of buying here. The party is over.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by rossgivens
1
MSFT - Getting close to major resistance.NASDAQ:MSFT is up 19% over the last month and is now coming to some major resistance. We have the Double 1.618% levels from the previous 2 highs plus the 61.8% level from the ATH. The measured ABCD is up just above 300 which is also a major FIB number 3. We have just gone past equal tops in time. If its similar to the last retracement then we should be looking at a move back to 250-270. Big week ahead with a major turn point coming on Tuesday. Enjoy the week.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by L_F
Very interesting group of channels tying tops & bottoms togetherWe can see this perfect group of rising channels that are the same width apart here on the btc log chart connecting our 2019 bottom to our current “alleged” market bottom, as well as connecting our 2018 top and our current top. I had to post an idea of this so I can see how these trendlines and channels continue to play pivotal roles against price action in the near future. Seeing it this way gives me added confidence the bottom is likely in..although with a black swan big enough I suppose price could still collapse to the bottom trendline of the worst channel. For now I believe bottom is more probable to be in than not though. *Not financial advice*
INDEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
New top this week, new bottom next weekMinor wave 4 should now be over leaving Minor wave 5 and the end of Intermediate wave 1 to occur by midweek. All a strong majority of models have the top at 2-3 days which equates to a top on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Wednesday morning is the CPI report which could be the catalyst for the next short-term market drop. The report is premarket and therefore Minor wave 5 tops before the close on Tuesday. The most specific models point to a top around 4172, although the dataset does not contain enough points of reference to ensure a strong certainty. The next set of data points to a high between 4145-4159. While the broad set of data points to a high between 4169-4229. At the very least the index should drive above Minor wave 3 which topped at 4133.13. A top around 4150 is fair and achievable over the next two days. A move above 4190 is less likely. After Intermediate wave 1 concludes, Intermediate wave 2 should push the market down for about a week, but likely less than 2 full weeks (10 trading days). If wave 1 finishes on Tuesday with a top at 4160, Intermediate wave 1 would have lasted 20 trading days and gained 351.14 points from top to bottom. The following is a projection of Intermediate wave 2 based on the estimates for the end of Intermediate wave 1. Based on historical waves ending in 2BC2, Intermediate wave 2 could last 4 or 10 days with a bottom between 3947-4042. Based on waves ending in BC2, wave 2 could last 4, 6, 10, or 11 days with a bottom 3886-3953. Lastly the broader dataset based on waves ending in C2 indicate a duration of 4-7 or 10 days with a bottom between 3852-4002. For now, I will project the bottom around 3950 over 6 trading days which would be April 19. This would mean the index gives up a little over 200 points over a week of trading. This would require an average drop of 35 points per day which this market is easily capable of completing. The day of the CPI report would likely see more than this while other days could see less or slight gains. I will continue to monitor and provide new estimates as the waves complete.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
S&P 500 Numerology - Hypothesis of Major Cycle TopThe concept of numerology is most often not taken seriously for obvious reasons. Most principally, it is because it doesn't make logical sense to the human brain. The human brain (of those rooted in western culture, at least) is more attuned to Newtonian logic, structured systems, or the stamp of approval from some poorly run university journal than it is accepting certain "coincidental" truths. The entire subject of "microeconomics" is a testament to this need to reduce human behavior into four or five hard, mathematical equations. I have personally taken a microeconomics class and I can safely say that none of the concepts can be practically applied to real life commerce. Please refrain from commenting if you disagree; you can instead have more fun trying to calculate individual elasticities for trade idea subscriptions. Wow, got pretty sidetracked there. My point is that keeping an open mind to certain market-related concepts can really broaden your understanding of how price action actually works. If that isn't incentive enough, then it can also substantially improve your timing accuracy and a general sense of market direction. If this still isn't incentive enough, then you might be inelastic to certain trade idea subscriptions. I wouldn't know though, since I dropped the class after lecture number 1. In theme with open-mindedness, check out the numerological proof above. The basis for this idea derives from W.D. Gann's concept of squaring price with time, which can be interpreted in any number of ways and applied as such. Basically, his idea stems from his observation that market trends change direction during those instances where some amount of price is equal to some passage of time. Put another way, the market cannot reverse its trend unless the underlying reaches a certain diagonal distance away from its origin, such that the y-axis distance equals the x-axis distance. Put another way, if the diagonal distance from a given origin point is equally distant horizontally and vertically from either respective axis, then that diagonal distance can be drawn at a 45-degree angle, such that a perfect square can be traced around it. If this still seems confusing, that's because it is. The concept of time and price squared is often misinterpreted, and even more often, applied incorrectly. Ever try using a "square of nine" and wondering what the hell you were doing for that many hours? Classic case of not really understanding the concept of price/time squared. The truth is that Gann's work is extremely intensive and valid educational resources are both difficult to come by and usually quite expensive. If you ever come across something Gann-related that isn't either of those things, then it's likely incomplete and will surely leave you more confused than you were beforehand. To alleviate your confusion about the point of my numerological proof up there, all I did was take the square root of a number of calendar days between March 6th, 2009 and September 2nd, 2021 and compared that quotient with the square root of the number of dollars/share in between the low price reached on the former date and the high price reached on the latter date. If the high of 4545 reached last September really is the top of some major trend, then it must necessarily tie out with a corresponding bottom made at some point X in the past. The two square-root quotients of price difference and time difference between two separate dates must relate in some sort of numerological way for these dates to define the starting point and the ending point of an apparent trend. The more obvious and literal the connection, the more sure you can be that you've nailed the defining start and end dates to a major S&P trend. If you don't believe me, then try it out on another set of dates. Eventually, you will see what I mean (hint: try starting your search on a major round number like the first date that hits 1000 price points). Now, if you've read up until this point, I commend you. Your reward in doing so is knowing that the proof succeeded, which means that the September high will not be exceeded in the near future; certainly not in 2021. You should also know that this is stated in the chart above. -CoinciPig SP:SPX TVC:DJI TVC:IXIC
SP:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
19
Chainlink Swing Trade Along MacBy identifying swing highs and swing lows, we can identify the appropriate targets. Chainlink has targets at: - $36 - $44 - $53 Using these targets and identifying the levels of support and resistance in conjunction, we can identify accumulation zones. Chainlink accumulation this cycle assuming bullish top: - $24 - $31.5 Currently, Chainlink is above the accumulation zone, but still under Target 1 and I believe a solid position to buy if below $35, just not a maximized gain. Chainlink is in a great position right now to surpass target one and make a run to test target 2. The MACD has crossed paths along with neutral buying accumulation in midway, so looking back in history we could be expecting bullish momentum until another cross along the accumulation peak or MACD. Best case scenario: - hits target 2 and target 1 becomes support in preparation for the final top of the bull cycle - sky is the limit by then Worst case scenario: - rests in accumulation zone Be wary of: - Bitcoin swings - Panic and emotion selling Note: - Chainlink is the turtle, not the bunny - Slow and steady wins the race...!
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by jaejayy
#BTCUSD: Top, or at least the biggest correction since 2020I think we have substantial risk that we are about to face the largest correction $Bitcoin has seen since the bottom in March 2020. Biden's proposal to hike taxes has roiled markets globally, and specially risk on assets naturally. Commodities are already rallying big and we know inflation is around the corner. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw the top for good, but I'm open to the possibility that this is a healthy correction to delever the market. Estimated leverage ratios from all exchanges are very high as per Crypto Quant data, which opens the possibility for a cascading liquidation run towards substantially lower prices if long term buyers don't support the market here. No one likes a market that is 'too long'. We are hedged from higher levels today. Sellers had taken a pause since the liquidation drop a few days ago, but buying pressure failed to manifest itself, and instead we observed an increase in leverage once again from retail buyers confident to buy the dip (was a red flag according to Santiment data). We haven't had corrections larger than 30% so far, not by much, unlike previous bullish trends in crypto, and we have a huge support level at 42381, the price where we heard about $TSLA buying $Bitcoin for the first time. The market reacted to it and I could determine this Key Level using Key Hidden Levels, a proprietary trading methodology and toolset developed by my mentor, @timwest . For the time being I'm in cash in my crypto account, waiting for the dust to settle, I certainly was a bit shaken by the recent action as we topped after hitting the 1st long term target zone in my big picture chart, at 57k, rather than trend for the duration of the forecasted rally until May 2022. This is unlike the previous bullish cycle. The only similarity is we have a crazy euphoria in altcoins, even in the face of falling $Bitcoin prices vs the dollar, and crazy high funding rates at exchanges and enormous leverage. It was one of my possible scenarios, since we had the 'laser eyes' trend catching on, I felt it was a sign of the times and a sentiment red flag but shrugged it off since weekly charts had remained strong, although I failed to realize the underlying market structure was not healthy with so much leverage in the system. The scenario I outlined was that we top at the first target, falling short of that 100k milestone...and bottom when people give up on the laser eyes meme. We should get signs of institutional buyers stopping the fall to get some reassurance, for now they are nowhere to be seen. Let's hope the bottom is confirmed very soon, and this isn't the end of the bullish trend but it is certainly possible. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
77
Devouring Netflix with Point&Figure analysis. Market Top. SHORT.Netflix hit an all-time high, then corrected. It crept below the uptrend line but didn't generate a sell-signal below it. It passed back above the uptrend line but hit the resistance roof. Again, it just crept below the uptrend line but without a sell-signal, suggesting that the trendline is acting as support, albeit loose support. The price climbed above again but then broke the uptrend line and generated a Double-Bottom sell-signal. Following the double-bottom sell, it fell by a further two boxes before being supported by the original uptrend line. It then rallied upwards but couldn't reach the second uptrend line which suggests this trendline now may switch to a resistance role. The price sunk below the original trendline for the first time and generated another double-bottom sell at the level of penetration, falling a further two boxes after the double-bottom signal box. It barely snuck above the original trendline before sinking down, albeit at a higher low. What followed was a strong rally which broke through the original trendline but was met with resistance from the most validated trendline. After very brief congestion, the price rallied through the most validated trendline by 4 boxes. This questioned the resistance power of this trendline. Though it is thought this 4 box rally above was an attempt to reach the previous all-time high. A pole developed and sunk the price through this trendline and then the original trendline again, and created a triple-bottom sell. The next X column failed to come close the original trendline. A catapult then formed with a double-bottom after the triple-bottom. The next X column failed to touch the original trendline before another double-bottom sell-signal was generated. Two downtrend lines have now formed but the area of support is yet to be full broken. My impression is that we are experiencing a market top and that a potential reversal is imminent. Things to look out for: - Will minor downtrend be penetrated? - Will major downtrend line be penetrated? - Will the area of support be penetrated? For a short, anticipate: - the second downtrend line to be validated - the area of support to be penetrated - a double-bottom sell-signal or better
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by owk13
MARKET COMPLETING WAVE 3Based on Elliot wave theory, the ENTIRE market is nearing its completion of the 3rd wave. This coincidentally will happen just as the IWM is completing its full 100% retrace from lows which also follows elliot wave rules. The range to look for is $360-$365 with the mean target being $362. Everyone knows the entire market is beyond parabolic and way overvalued. there is not a single company that is not trading at a "fair value." eventually the rug will be pulled. Once wave 3 starts, we head into wave 4 which should bring us down to a minimum of $250 with a possible extension down to $200. This wave 4 will most likely follow the pattern of wave 2 with roughly 10 years of sideways consolidation. Meaning it can be a complex wave 4 having swings from $360 to $200. Once wave 4 is complete, we head into wave 5 which should easily carry SPY to above 500.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ncontelmo
1
FSLY- When the momentum stock loses its momentumTrend line is temporarily broken and there was no strong bounce back after the price crashed to the confluence zone of POC, 50 SMA and fib 38.2 level, indicating a weak demand at this lvl. There is little sign of decreasing selling pressure at this moment. If FSLY doesn't get back above the resistance and supply zone of 90 convincingly in the next days, party may indeed be over. Generally speaking, when you see the momentum stock decline significantly after the positive earning, this should be your first warning sign that investors are disappointed that the stock fails to live up to their lofty expectation. This is especially true for momentum stocks with lofty valuation. Market tops are often made when stocks react negatively to positive earning or when stocks stop going up on positive news. It is possible though that the short-term negative sentiment is caused by the TikTok news, but it is undeniable that the growth of enterprise clients for FSLY has slowed down recently. The overall macro is still good for Fastly though as E-commerce is still thriving. I am also bullish on the cybersecurity industry as whole and another market-leading CDN in the edge computing space you can capitalize on is NET. Thank you for reading through my analysis! Don't forget to click the like and follow me :)
NYSE:FSLY
by Libratus
TSLA reversal at perfect 300% fib ext may signal market top? Unbelievable how TSLA was rejected precisely at historic monthly/weekly chart chart 300 fib extension (on linear calc, not log scale). Not only are technicians giving more weight to linear fib extension levels (incorrectly I may add) but this could also signal market top? Watch NFLX for clues in coming weeks. MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO WATCH FED RESERVE LIQUIDITY INJECITONS on the FRED website as that has >99% correlation now. fred.stlouisfed.org
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by DropDead_Fed