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Markettrend

Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction: A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety. For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics. Analysis: Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds. Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years. Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY). Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels) Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
Bitcoin Breaking Higher Highs: What to Watch for NextBitcoin is currently breaking above a recent higher high, signaling potential for continued upward momentum. If it successfully surpasses this level with strong volume, it could indicate that buyers are in control and ready to push prices higher. However, it’s essential to wait for confirmation—this means letting Bitcoin close above the high to avoid a potential false breakout. By waiting for a clean break, traders can enter with more confidence, aligning with the trend and reducing risk. If this higher high holds, it may serve as new support, creating a solid foundation for the next move upward.
Long
by Professor_Noah
1
why both gold and dollar rising?While gold and the US dollar typically have an inverse relationship, there are scenarios where both can rise simultaneously. Here are some reasons why this might happen: 1. Global Economic Uncertainty Safe Haven Demand: In times of significant global economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, both gold and the US dollar can be seen as safe-haven assets. Investors might flock to both for safety, driving up their prices simultaneously. 2. Inflation Concerns Inflation Hedge: If there are rising inflation concerns, investors might buy gold as a hedge against inflation. Simultaneously, if the US Federal Reserve signals or implements interest rate hikes to combat inflation, it could strengthen the US dollar. Thus, both assets could rise together in response to inflation fears. 3. Diverse Investor Behavior Diverse Risk Perception: Different investor groups might have varying risk perceptions and strategies. Some might be buying gold due to concerns about fiat currencies and long-term value retention, while others might be buying the US dollar because of its short-term liquidity and stability. 4. Central Bank Policies Monetary Policy Divergence: If other major economies are implementing more aggressive monetary easing compared to the US, the US dollar might strengthen relative to other currencies. Simultaneously, if these policies stoke fears of currency devaluation or economic instability, gold might also rise as a hedge. 5 . Mixed Economic Data Mixed Signals: There might be mixed economic data where certain indicators (like strong GDP growth or low unemployment) support a stronger US dollar, while other indicators (like high inflation or high debt levels) support higher gold prices. 6. Short-term Market Dynamics Market Speculation: Short-term trading dynamics and speculative activities can cause both gold and the dollar to rise simultaneously. Traders might be reacting to news or events that have complex implications for both assets. 7. Real Interest Rates Real Interest Rates: If real interest rates (nominal interest rates adjusted for inflation) are low or negative, both gold and the dollar can rise. Investors might seek gold as a store of value while also moving into the US dollar for its relative stability. Recent Examples Pandemic Response: During the COVID-19 pandemic, there were periods when both gold and the US dollar rose. This was due to massive economic uncertainty prompting safe-haven buying of gold, while global demand for liquidity and safe assets boosted the US dollar. Geopolitical Tensions: Events like geopolitical conflicts can lead to simultaneous rises in both assets as investors seek safety in gold and the US dollar. Conclusion While the typical relationship between gold and the US dollar is inverse, various factors like global uncertainty, inflation concerns, diverse investor behaviors, central bank policies, mixed economic data, and short-term market dynamics can lead to both rising together. Understanding these factors helps in comprehending the complex interactions in financial markets.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by realmillionairefx
USD INDEX DXYLast one week we have seen a serious upward rise in us dollar index based on various positive and negative events happened. the us market and dollar is being controlled by various turbulent economic and geopolitical situations. In geopolitical aspects if israel hisbullah issue may bring usa into full on war support to israel against hisbullah in lebanon then the us dollar will fall drastically like hell. on the financial end if us treasury bonds moves good and new financial policies enacted the dollar will get more boost, but we expect a retracement of usd dollar index either from 105.57 area or from 105.88 area. if both these areas are breached then gold will fly to an area of 106.40 For more updates and market new follow us. Please boost us we can reach more people.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by realmillionairefx
Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): Bullish Divergence SignalsMarathon Digital Holdings is heavily influenced by developments in the cryptocurrency market. Despite this dependency, significant indicators on the RSI chart show repeated divergences. These divergences have previously resulted in substantial price movements and could potentially do so again. Currently, we have identified a bullish divergence on the daily chart, with the stock holding above the High-Volume-Node (HVN) Edge within a trend channel. These correlations suggest there could be enough momentum for the stock to retest the $34 level, which we consider a minimum target. Marathon's stock is known for its rapid movements, meaning it can quickly move up or down. Should the stock move upwards, it could swiftly surpass the $34 mark. However, we must also consider the presence of equal lows on the chart. These equal lows are often a point of concern as they indicate significant liquidity below them, which the market tends to target. Therefore, it is possible that we might see a dip to collect this liquidity in the coming days, weeks, or even months, potentially bringing the price back to the trendline. In the worst-case scenario, the stock might drop to the High-Volume-Node Point of Control at $9.67 before resuming its upward trajectory. Despite this risk, we believe that Marathon has substantial upside potential in the coming weeks. The confluence of bullish signals and strong support levels suggests that the stock could see significant gains if the bullish divergence plays out as expected.
NASDAQ:MARA
by freeguy_by_wmc
Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 11-Mar-24 to 15-Mar-24Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 11-Mar-24 to 15-Mar-24 Nifty closed at 22493(22378) and touched low & high of 22224 & 22522 RSI and stochastics levels are same in this week (65% & 96% Respectively). Stochastics is in overbought zone. Market touched a new high on last short trading session on Saturday to 22522, which crossed the Fib resistance and trend line resistance near to 22350. RBI issued warning on excessive rally on Mid & Small Cap to control liquidity. Hence extreme caution need to be applied. Nifty IT 37099 (37593 ) -To continue hold. Nifty IT touched new high of 38550 15 days before. Major support at 34918 /34000. Target can be 40000. Nifty bank 47853 (47297) -To continue buy on dips. Nifty Bank touched 48160 high last week and dipped. initial Target 48618 ( all time high). if it cross this resistance decisively. support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). Purchase on Dips. Refer to detailed comments in the bottom. Nifty 22493- Short Term (Up) & medium term (Neutral) As mentioned in for the past two week, Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak. nifty next target 22819 (Fib Resistance)/23000. Short term Support - 22116 (MA 21), 21554 (Fib Support ),20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Medium term Support at 20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance) Nifty Medium Term & long Term - Can buy at 20800 -21000 level in case of dip Target Fibonacci extended resistance is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak. nifty will move to next target 22819 (Fib Resistance)/22500. Support at 20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance) Long Term Market expected range bound between 23000 to 18800 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend sustaining the market above 22000. Only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support. Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. But to a surprise Nifty IT moved up 4-5% up as US economy is recovering. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000. Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Nifty Bank ( 46554) tried to move above key resistances. Continue to buy on dips. As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
BITCOIN MOVE UP OR DOWN? WHAT'S NEXTThe recent market dynamics have witnessed a shift in momentum, with a notable surge in strength last week, propelling prices to reach 44,696. Subsequently, a new short-term trend has emerged, indicated by the green chart. Despite multiple attempts, the market has been unable to breach its resistance, suggesting a prevailing bearish sentiment. According to the green chart pattern, the market is currently on a downward trajectory, heading towards 41,600 and further down to 40,500 at Target 01. This trend is expected to persist, with the subsequent target, Target 02, lying in the range of 39,000 to 38,500 . On the Flipside, there is a potential development of a new pattern, highlighted in grey. If this grey pattern manages to break the resistance of the existing green pattern, a reversal could occur, leading to an upward movement after retracement from the buying zone. It is essential to closely monitor the market for any signs of a breakout or a shift in the established patterns.
Short
by sheikhhamza306
1
📈 Gains (GNSUSDT) : Macro Higher Low, Potential UpsideAn analysis of Gains (GAINS) suggests a creation of a macro higher low, indicating potential upside, and identifies key levels, providing insights for market participants. Key Insights: Macro Higher Low: Gains is observed to be creating a macro higher low, signaling positive market dynamics. Potential Upside: The analysis indicates that the market looks promising for a move up to $6.6. Risk Management: A strategic stop is proposed below the prior lows at $3.33 for risk management. #Gains #CryptoAnalysis #MarketTrends
Long
by Richtv_official
End of Week Wrap! SPX, ES & Leading DiagonalAs the trading week comes to a close, market participants have witnessed a slow yet steady rise in SPX futures. I'm going to dive into the advantages of trading futures, analyze the recent price action in ES futures and the SPX index, and discuss the leading diagonal pattern that played out in the market. I will also provide insights into what to expect for the week ahead and share some advice on trading cautiously. The Advantages of Trading Futures Futures trading offers several benefits to traders, one of which is the absence of theta decay. Theta decay refers to the decline in the value of an option as time passes, which can erode profits in options trading. With futures, traders can benefit from even slight movements in their favor, making it easier to secure profits. Be careful for futures rollover dates, which TradingView conveniently places on the chart for your reference. Recent Price Action in ES Futures and SPX Index The ES futures experienced an upward movement, reaching the 4000 mark and hitting the resistance level at 4010. On the other hand, the SPX index did not quite make it to 4000. However, it is possible that it could reach that level next week, potentially after a lower open on Sunday evening. As the market conditions evolve, I will be closely monitoring ES for a move up to 4020. The Leading Diagonal Pattern in Action As anticipated, the leading diagonal pattern played out, and after breaking out, the price action briefly retested the trendline before moving up to 4000. This pattern indicates that the market is poised for a significant trend reversal. Expectations for the Week Ahead For the upcoming week, I anticipate that the market may open slightly lower, though not significantly. Shorting the market at this stage should be approached with caution and considered only for short-term day trades. After a potential pullback, I expect the market to make a move up towards the 4020 level later in the week before encountering another rejection. That is where I will consider adding short exposure. However, predicting such a scenario far into the future comes with inherent uncertainties, so it is wise to revisit my hypothesis next week and adjust as necessary. Trade Carefully and Stay Informed As we venture into the new trading week, it is crucial to trade carefully and stay abreast of market developments. By understanding the advantages of futures trading, closely monitoring price action in ES futures and the SPX index, and analyzing patterns such as the leading diagonal that unfolded over the last 2 days, you can better navigate the financial markets and make informed decisions. As market conditions evolve, it is essential to continually reassess your strategies and adapt accordingly. By trading cautiously and staying informed, you can minimize risk and maximize your chances of success in this ever-changing landscape.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
FED Interest Rates and it's mechanism BINANCE:BTCUSDT In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Reserve balances are amounts held at the Federal Reserve to maintain depository institutions' reserve requirements. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. The federal funds rate is an important benchmark in financial markets. The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is calculated as the effective median interest rate of overnight federal funds transactions during the previous business day. It is published daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The federal funds target range is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule. The Federal Reserve uses open market operations to bring the effective rate into the target range. The target range is chosen in part to influence the money supply in the U.S. economy Financial institutions are obligated by law to hold liquid assets that can be used to cover sustained net cash outflows. Among these assets are the deposits that the institutions maintain, directly or indirectly, with a Federal Reserve Bank. An institution that is below its required liquidity can address this temporarily by borrowing from institutions that have Federal Reserve deposits in excess of the requirement. The interest rate that a borrowing bank pays to a lending bank to borrow the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all such transactions is the effective federal funds rate. The Federal Open Market Committee regularly sets a target range for the federal funds rate according to its policy goals and the economic conditions of the United States. It directs the Federal Reserve Banks to influence the rate toward that range with open market operations or adjustments to their own deposit interest rates. Although this is commonly referred to as "setting interest rates," the effect is not immediate and depends on the banks' response to money market conditions. Separately, the Federal Reserve lends directly to institutions through its discount window, at a rate that is usually higher than the federal funds rate. Future contracts in the federal funds rate trade on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), and the financial press refer to these contracts when estimating the probabilities of upcoming FOMC actions. When the FOMC wishes to reduce interest rates they will increase the supply of money by buying government securities. When additional supply is added and everything else remains constant, the price of borrowed funds – the federal funds rate – falls. Conversely, when the Committee wishes to increase the federal funds rate, they will instruct the Desk Manager to sell government securities, thereby taking the money they earn on the proceeds of those sales out of circulation and reducing the money supply. When supply is taken away and everything else remains constant, the interest rate will normally rise. The Federal Reserve has responded to a potential slow-down by lowering the target federal funds rate during recessions and other periods of lower growth. In fact, the Committee's lowering has recently predated recessions, in order to stimulate the economy and cushion the fall. Reducing the federal funds rate makes money cheaper, allowing an influx of credit into the economy through all types of loans.
Education
by INVESTRONE
3
📊 Four Market PhasesThe four market phases in trading are characterized by different levels of buying and selling activity, trading volumes, news and sentiment, and price trends. By understanding these phases, traders and investors can better anticipate market movements and position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. 🔹 Accumulation In this phase, the market is characterized by low trading volumes and a lack of clear price trend. Buyers and sellers are more or less balanced, and prices tend to remain within a certain range. This phase is often seen as a period of accumulation by smart money investors who are slowly building up positions before the market begins to trend. 🔹 Uptrend In this phase, the market experiences a sustained rise in prices, driven by increasing demand from buyers. This is typically accompanied by higher trading volumes and positive news and sentiment. Traders may look to buy into dips during this phase, in order to take advantage of the overall trend. 🔹 Distribution In this phase, the market begins to show signs of weakness, with prices starting to trend sideways or even decline. This is typically accompanied by lower trading volumes and negative news and sentiment. Smart money investors may begin to sell into strength during this phase, as they look to lock in profits before the market turns lower. 🔹 Downtrend In this phase, the market experiences a sustained decline in prices, driven by increasing supply from sellers. This is typically accompanied by lower trading volumes and negative news and sentiment. Traders may look to sell into rallies during this phase, in order to take advantage of the overall trend. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
1
The Market TrendsHello, Let us talk about 'Market Trends.' On this chart: We will read about what they are, how they work, and how they help us. Market trends refer to the general direction or movement of a particular market or industry over time. These trends are often driven by several factors, including consumer behavior, economic conditions, technological advances, and changes in government regulations. One of the current market trends is the spread of electronic commerce and online shopping. As more and more consumers shop online, companies are switching to digital marketing and sales channels. This development was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced many people to stay at home and rely on online shopping. Another trend is the growing demand for durable and environmentally friendly products. Consumers are increasingly aware of the environmental influence of their purchases and are looking for products manufactured and packaged in an environmentally friendly manner. This trend forces companies to adopt sustainable practices and incorporate sustainability into their product offerings. There are several types of market trends, including: 1. Upward Trend: An uptrend, also known as a bull market, is characterized by a general increase in the price of a particular asset or market over time. This development is often driven by a strong economy, positive investment sentiment, and increasing demand for assets or markets. 2. Downward Trend: A downtrend, also known as a bear market, is characterized by a general decline in the price of a particular asset or market over time. This trend is often the result of a weak economy, negative investment sentiment, and reduced demand for assets or markets. 3. Sideways Trend: A lateral trend, also known as a range-bound market, is characterized by the fact that the price of a particular asset or market does not change significantly over time. This trend is often driven by market uncertainty, as buyers and sellers become more cautious. 4. Volatility: Volatility refers to the extent to which the price of a particular asset or market fluctuates over time. High volatility may indicate increased uncertainty and risk, while low volatility may indicate a more stable market environment. 5. Seasonal Trends: Some markets may exhibit seasonal trends, such as demand for specific products or services at certain times of the year (such as the Christmas shopping season). 6. Technology Trends: Technology trends refer to the direction and amount of innovation in a particular industry or market. These trends can significantly affect the overall performance of individual companies and markets. Understanding market trends can help investors, traders, and companies make informed decisions about buying, selling, and investing in different markets and assets. To identify an uptrend in the cryptocurrency market, it is necessary to analyze prices and market data to determine if the value of cryptocurrencies has consistently increased over a while. Here are some steps to identify an uptrend in the cryptocurrency market: 1. Look for a consistent rise in the price of cryptocurrencies over a while. This can be detected by analyzing prices and looking for a consistent pattern of higher and lower prices. 2. Check trading volumes to see if the number of trades and overall trading activity in the market has increased. Continued growth in trading volume could indicate increased demand and interest in cryptocurrencies, which could contribute to the rally. 3. Follow market sentiments and news about the cryptocurrency market. Positive news, such as the adoption of cryptocurrencies by large institutions or regulatory clarity, can help the market rise. 4. Check technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI and MACD to confirm an uptrend. These indicators can help identify market momentum and provide additional information about market direction. It is important to note that the cryptocurrency market can be very volatile and subject to sudden price changes. So, it is essential to consider other factors, such as risk tolerance, investment goals, and diversification, when making investment decisions. Researching and consulting with a financial advisor before investing in cryptocurrencies or other financial assets is also essential. There are various tools and indicators available to identify trends in financial markets, including the following: Moving averages: A moving average is a trend-following indicator that smooths out price data by averaging prices over a specific period. Traders often use moving averages to identify the direction and strength of a trend. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is a momentum indicator that compares the volume of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to resolve the overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The RSI can be used to identify potential trend reversals or continuations. MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of an asset's price. Traders use the MACD to identify potential trend direction, momentum, and strength changes. Bollinger Bands : Bollinger Bands are a volatility indicator that uses standard deviations of an asset's price to create upper and lower bands. Traders often use Bollinger Bands to identify potential breakouts or breakdowns of price trends. Fibonacci retracements: Fibonacci retracements are technical levels indicating potential support or resistance areas. Traders use Fibonacci retracements to identify potential levels where a trend may reverse or continue. Volume: Trading volume is the amount of an asset traded over a given period. Traders use volume to confirm price trends and to identify potential trend reversals. Price action: Price action studies an asset's price movement over time. Traders use price action to identify potential trends, reversals, and key support and resistance levels. It's important to note that no single tool or indicator can accurately predict future market trends. Traders often use a combination of tools and indicators, along with fundamental analysis and market news, to make informed trading decisions. You can also see different educational ideas about market trends and tools to identify them on this chart below: Many TradingView experts have taken the time to publish great ideas, and they shared most of them below this idea. Make sure you take a look at them too. Thank you for your time.
Education
by ShawnMCR
14
ATOM/USDTThis pattern is important because it helps to indicate the continuation of a bullish or bearish market. When the direction of the price channel is in the upward direction it is considered the Bullish Price Channel and when the face of the price channel is in the downward direction it is called Bearish Price Channel. Traders could buy a stock when its price breaks above the upper channel line of a falling channel. It is prudent to use other technical indicators to confirm the breakout. For example, traders could require that a significant increase in volume accompanies the breakout and that there is no overhead resistance on higher timeframe charts.
Long
by majidalisabir
DJI - LongThe Dow is going to go up, on the weekly chart, there were two tests that the market performed to gather information as to which way to take the market. Test T1 tested the market for 4 weeks (1 month) to see if the market should go lower, the target test price point for T1 was answering the question, "should we take DJI to 100wk MA", the market sentiment answer was no, this was the purpose of T1. Once this was answered, the market took DJI to the 50wk MA, now the question is should we go above the 50wk or dump the stock, essentially use the rise to dump stock and then proceed quickly (probably 1 week) to the 100wk MA for testing. The testing of the 20wk and 50wk has been done for 3 weeks now, and what is being answered by T2 is the question, "Does the market want to take the DJI above the 20wk and 50wk or does the market want to do a dump at this price reference?" To answer this question look at the 4 hour DJI trading chart (not shown), what you will see on the 4 hour is a healthy trading pattern of support, between the 20hr4, 50hr4 and 100hr4 (hr4 = 4hour chart). IMO the market will go up, the next key test will be the breaking of 35824 for the DJI, if the DJI doesn't break 35824 then there is going to be a retest of the low of T1, if the market breakes 35824, then the market is going to test 36592, the high of the DJI last year. In no way should you think we are on a another big leg up on the DJI, at each price point mentioned above, if it isn't broken the Dow will move down pretty quickly to the T1 test area. If 36592 is broken (to the upside), whether you like it or not and it will not depend on all the fundamental news you have been reading of the "crumbling financial foundation of the market and inverted yield curve", the market is going to go up and it is likely to go up viciously, at least until the next price testing point is reached.
TVC:DJILong
by trader999999
Using Correlations to Predict Markets: Review & DiscussionSeveral months ago, I posted the original idea (see related) when I thought that markets were preparing for major asset rotation. Instead, it seems that we only got a preview of the real thing. Meaning, that Bitcoin had a major selloff right around the time of the first post, but it wasn't severe enough to drastically shift the major asset classes. Right now, I feel a similar type of paradigm shift is coming, so I wanted to review some key points that I've gathered since monitoring this correlation study. The major takeaways are listed in the top part of the chart and the updates to what the correlations with Gold could mean for each asset class are shown in the bottom sections, respectively. In my opinion, not much has changed regarding the future direction of the various asset types, with the exception of USD. I think that as of today, inflation will get its recognition as a potential destroyer of wealth and will lead to mass exodus from risk assets. The reasons for this are too many to include and are beyond the scope of this post. The main point of this is that I believe that due to the bizarre and artificial economic landscape painted by the Fed, that inflation will be viewed as a harbinger for risk assets, before it is considered an "invisible tax" on the USD, which would lead to broader questions concerning its purchasing power. The reason for mentioning this inflation belief is that we find ourselves in a unique situation whereby there are only two main asset types that are "undervalued": 1) USD, 2) Gold. Ironically, these two things should be polar opposites; yet it is now undeniably true (based on recent correlation studies), that the two move in tandem when correlated, and have been such more often than not over the past several years. Lastly, I would strongly recommend keeping tabs on USD/Gold corr going forward, since it can really help to find true direction when financial markets unravel. -Pig/USD TVC:GOLD TVC:SPX TVC:DXY CURRENCYCOM:OIL_CRUDE BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
TVC:GOLDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
8
My Elliott wave analysis on GBP/USDHere's my perspective on the GBP/USD using the Elliott wave analysis; Disclaimer: This is just my idea on the current direction of this particular market, by no means is this financial advice, please do proper research. Thank you! It is seen that the market has been able to complete the (12345 wave) count, and its presently at a corrective stage, i.e. (ABC),specifically at 'C', also the wave shapes seem to be Zig-Zag in nature, telling me that the final leg of the corrective wave, 'C' will have to undergo a 5-stage sub wave, i.e. Zig-Zag wave(5,3,5). The markets is in first sub wave stage in the 'C' leg which is an impulse to the down side before a correction, and thus the sequence continues till the setup is complete . Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, my prediction of the length of the wave 'C' would most likely be at 1.618(1.34039),seeing that the length of the 'A' leg would be identical to the 'C', i.e. (of equal length).
by damibabs21
READY FOR LIFTOFF?Lookin at a decending wedge, you have price touching the bottom trendline of a rising channel.If price falls below this zone your looking at the next zone below between $1.85-$1.61. Coming closer to the bottom of this wedge I don't see price retesting the lower trendline of the wedge, but anything is possible. 1st target looking at $9.75, if we get past that I'm projecting a 2nd tarjay @ $19.00, where we have the next major monthly supply zone and some resistance. Let me know your thoughts.
NASDAQ:ABUSLong
by ICTrades407
1