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Nifty Short , Medium& Long Term View-26-Feb-24 to 01-Mar-24Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View-26-Feb-24 to 01-Mar-24 Nifty closed at 22212 (22040) and touched low & high of 21824 & 22297 RSI and stochastics levels reduced this week (90% & 90% Respectively). Both Rsi & Stochastics is in overbought zone. Volatality was seen on Thursday with more than 400 points. Market crossed 22150 last week. Need to decisively close above all time high 22294/22314 (Fib Resistance). Earlier 30-35% profit booking was suggested (except Bank & IT stocks). Partial Booking can be considered for further 5-10% wherever valuation are high. There is no worry on Good Valued Stocks which can be kept for Long Term. This cash will be useful to buy when during the fall. Nifty IT 38045 (38477 ) -To continue hold. Nifty IT touched new high of 38477 last week. Major support at 34918 /34000. Target can be 40000. Nifty bank 46554 ( Prev Week 45634 ) -To continue buy on dips. Nifty Bank touched 47350 high last week. Target 48618 ( all time high) support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). Purchase on Dips. Refer to detailed comments in the bottom. Nifty 22212- Short Term ( Neutral ) All time high 22294/ 22314 (Fib Resistance) will be a key resistance. Support - 21554 (Fib Support ), 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Nifty Medium Term & long Term - Can buy at 20800 -21000 level in case of dip for a short run up. Target Fibonacci extended resistance is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak. nifty will move to next target 22819 (Fib Resistance)/22500. Support at 20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance) Long Term Market expected range bound between 22800 to 18800 expected till mid of 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Comments : Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. But to a surprise Nifty IT moved up 4-5% up as US economy is recovering. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000. Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Nifty Bank ( 46554) tried to move above key resistances. Continue to buy on dips. As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
BTC Market Update 5th February In the latest analysis post, I've closely examined the performance of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) with a particular focus on recent liquidity movements. Over the past week, spanning five trading sessions, a noticeable deceleration in the rate of daily outflows from the trust has been observed. Specifically, the average daily outflow rate has contracted by +20%, indicating a substantial reduction in the volume of withdrawals. Since its inception, Grayscale's Bitcoin exposure has significantly diminished, registering a reduction of 127,000 BTC, equivalent to a 20.5% decrease in its holdings. This contraction can be attributed to various factors, including the liquidation of positions by discount buyers, the unwinding of assets by the FTX estate, and a notable shift by investors towards more cost-effective ETF options available in the market. Regarding Bitcoin's market direction, my analysis suggests a period of consolidation before any potential upward momentum. Currently, there are no discernible indicators hinting at an imminent downturn in Bitcoin's value; the market conditions appear stable and ready to grow. This stability holds significance for the crypto market, as historical patterns indicate that an increase in Bitcoin's price often precedes similar uptrends across the broader altcoin market. In essence, when Bitcoin's price rises, it tends to have a ripple effect, elevating the value of other coins. The intricate interplay between Bitcoin's liquidity movements and its price dynamics, coupled with the subsequent impact on the altcoin market, underscores the complexity of the cryptocurrency investment landscape. Having a long exposure in the consolidation range is considered a favorable entry point, especially for portfolios without existing long exposure.
Long
by TheArabianWhale
1
BTC Market Update 14th January Post the spot ETF approval, there was a notable surge in significant inflows marked by high volumes. However, a distinct trend emerged with the redemption of AMEX:GBTC , highlighting two crucial points: first, there has been selling pressure on GBTC, and second, the anticipated inflows were lower than initially expected. Weekends often witness limited liquidity, and order books are less robust, implying a potential gradual decline until further clarity emerges. While a correction in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD seems probable, especially following an uninterrupted rally, such fluctuations are deemed normal in market behavior. During the weekend, GBTC couldn't execute sales, and BTC experienced a drop from 49K to 43K within 24 hours, partly influenced by Larry Fink's positive remarks on an ETH ETF, leading to a more than 20% rise in ETHBTC. However, GBTC is expected to resume selling on Tuesday. A second downturn is anticipated when GBTC announces outflows for yesterday. Contrary to the observed $94M outflow for GBTC, it pertained to Wednesday, preceding its going live. Thursday's outflows likely reached the hundreds of millions, already sold into the market via CME futures and BITO. Authorized Participants (APs) sell futures and manage BTC on a T+1 basis. People observed a $94M outflow for GBTC, but that was actually for Wednesday, prior to it going live. The outflows for Thursday are probably in the hundreds of millions, already sold into the market via CME futures and BITO. The Authorized Participants (APs) sell futures and then handle BTC on a T+1 basis. The advisable strategy for the time being is to adopt a patient approach, observing the market without immediate action. A prudent course of action is to wait and reassess the situation.
by TheArabianWhale
BTC Market Update 12/30/2023BINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin has recently seen a deceleration in the mid-$40,000 range, encountering resistance levels between $43,000 and $44,000 on both a weekly and daily basis. From a technical standpoint, surpassing this resistance zone is crucial for supporting a bullish continuation. Currently, the market is facing challenges in overcoming these levels. To approach this situation cautiously, a positive sign of momentum would be a weekly close above $44,100. Alternatively, a more assertive stance requires a daily close above $43,900, indicating strength in the short-term trend. Traders focusing on technical pullbacks to support levels should consider $37,000 as the earliest significant pullback level on the daily chart. However, this may be deemed an aggressive entry point. Beyond technical analysis, a pivotal factor is the imminent decision on the spot ETF, expected in early January. This event has the potential to significantly influence market dynamics, and we anticipate it to be a "sell-the-news" occurrence that bottoms shortly before a surge towards the halving. Prudent trading strategies involve either maintaining a long position from a lower entry point while anticipating volatility around the ETF announcement or adopting a wait-and-see approach until the aftermath of the ETF decision becomes clear.
by TheArabianWhale
1
3 Scenario Outcome for BitcoinSpeculation is just that, only speculation. Ideas to guide your trading and/or investing journey. I put a good amount of time in researching and charting over the last year to specifically develop this thesis. I hope you enjoy and please like and share, even if it's to ridicule my analysis! With that said, it looks like there are three scenarios that are 'most' likely to play out over the next 2 years: Scenario 1: Worst case (Red Path). Bitcoin ETF's are denied and/or a major market crash happens beginning Dec '23 or Q1/Q2 '24. Targets are the lower channel back at bear market bottom, the Value area low (Blue) & nPOC (naked point of control sitting above VAL) or below, to include CME gaps of a. 20.3k b. 9.7k & c. 3k at the very worst. 12k bears will rejoice. I for one will be selling the farm and my first born at 9k or below. Scenario 2. Bitcoin ETF delays (Orange Path). The range continues with a top off near the Macro VAH at about where price stands as of today, 11/11/23 @ 37k-39k. Price would most likely seek to validate back to fair value at 32k, and then retest down to 20.3k for the CME gap fill creating one of the most powerful patterns as an inverse head and shoulders. Given the channels, this seems the most likely with an upside target to the VAH again near dump of April/May '22 and now resistance at 48k. Target is summer of '24. Scenario 3. Moon boy status (Green Path). This means the Bitcoin ETF was approved prior to any fundamental problems (ie FTX 2.0, WW3, declared depression, etc) and no need to wait for price to come down past 32k, possibly ever. B. There is the possibility of a priced in ETF scenario that allows for the channel to stay valid. In this case, if price action does not moon over 48k up to ATH's, it likely sets a re-accumulation zone above 48k, playing within the upper channel, with a last dip into the 30k's before we see ATH's. Either way, Bitcoin is ready to rock and roll. Now to the less juicy part of this bull run. Give the diminishing returns as most assets have as they age, it looks like 100k is going to be the biggest and baddest of all resistance from a percentage standpoint. Gone are the days of 33k% gains. From the top of each market cycle to the next top we go from over 1k% to now 250-ish% last cycle. Here's where I 'm at from a charting and fundamental stance: Bitcoin gets a 44-54% blow off top (Shown in price range) from previous ATH's up to 100k-ish. If it's more, great, sell because you've been stacking or you're long. Buy your lambo, more power to you. However, given the current M2 issue, loan maturations (refinancing in '25 from 2.9% to almost 5%) as well as the overall credit and savings crisis, Bitcoin's blow off top could be in the 80-88k range. That would put the total market crypto cap at ATH's of 3.5-4 Trillion range. If Chairman Powell decides to turn the printers on for 2025, then some of the moon boi's out there may see 150k, so we all win anyway from a plebs perspective. #Stackon
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Zseries33
2
US30 Analysis Today's focus: US30 Pattern – LH Support – 34,560 Resistance – 35,030 • Price set a new failed high, pressuring the current rally • US Employment data at due 8:30 am Today, we have run over US30 technicals and price action after yesterday’s selling set up a failed rally that could become a new lower high. We don’t have a directional bias at the moment, but we feel there are a few things to mention and watch heading up to today’s NFP data. Could weaker data support buyers, and if we see higher than expected data, could this maintain rates worries and drive price lower? Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:US30
by Eightcap
#BTC Up or Down?It's been 5 days since BTC is consolidating between 29400 and 28800$. Consolidation range is narrowing, that is why we can see almost zero volatility on the coin. Usually, after long consolidation we can expect a big move. Will this be move positive or negative - hard to say. because currently the situation is 50/50 Personally I would like to see downtrend scenario, and for this I have several reasons as: SPX currently shows Bearish move, USDT.D looks pretty bullish, news around Huobi exchange. All this can trigger BTC to go down towards 27 - 26K $. At the same time, if we will see a breakout through 29600$ (from the current price) and consolidation above this level, this will mean, that BTC will increase in the price towards to 32000$ where we can see weekly FVG. You can take hedge long and short positions on BTC. Just dont forget to follow RM!
by vazitrades
8/1: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES continues its characteristic bull market cycle of multi-day squeezes followed by wide rangebound consolidation under resistance, as it has done since July 19th. This pattern is expected to continue until a breakout occurs. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a bit 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines Manufacturing data weak across China and Eurozone with Germany showing the steepest decline since the pandemic. Key Structures The triangle at 4609 remains the key structure, despite being somewhat "busted". This level has been tested six times in the last week and is proving to be a strong resistance. The ascending triangle at 4569-4571 is now support. The large rising uptrend channel connecting the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel, with support currently at 4405 and resistance at 4650-55. Support Levels Supports are at 4608, 4602, 4594-92 (major), 4580, 4568-71 (major), 4556, 4549 (major), 4542, 4530 (major), 4515, 4500, 4488-92 (major), 4474, 4467, 4455-60 (major), 4442-45 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at 4608 (major), 4617, 4622 (major), 4631 (major), 4641, 4652-55 (major), 4664, 4670, 4681-84 (major), 4697, 4705 (major), 4714, 4722, 4740-45 (major), 4751, 4762 (major). Trading Plan The bull case is in play above 4592 and 4600, with a potential breakout to 4622 and then up to 4652-55. The bear case begins on the fail of 4592, with a potential short at 4589 for a move down the levels. If 4592 fails, it's time to short. Wrap Up ES continues to consolidate and build its base. As long as 4600 holds, with any spikes down to 4592 quickly bought, ES can continue to base for a push to 4622, then a final dip, then a breakout up the levels to 4631, then the 4655 magnet. If 4592 fails, it's time to short. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Market Update - BTC, BTC1!, ETH, SP, NQ, DXYQuick market update focusing on Bitcoin and covering BTC CME Futures, ETH, SP, NQ, and DXY. Effectively Bitcoin is still holding the $30k support and trend does remain to the upside, with major news events starting Wednesday with inflation data, we are expecting an increase in volume/volatility. Overall we did breakdown from the range high but until the $30k support is lost and bearishly retested the overall trend remains to the upside. TradFi is also holding its ranges continuing the rally, until higher timeframe structure is lost the expectation is that the upside trend will continue until proven otherwise. Generally we have hedged off BTC longs with some shorts from $31.2k and higher, we are still net long but have taken some profit in the upside of the range last week as a precaution. The play is the range until proven otherwise.
Long
by TrendmasterOfficial
1
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD Market UpdateHi Traders! GBPUSD seems to be currently content trading in the 1.27000 area. The price action on the 4H chart indicates possible nervousness or uncertainty from traders. There was a recent failed breakout above the bull flag with a downward trend in recent trading volumes to confirm any lack of momentum in the markets, so we are not expecting any big market moves for now. Activity may pick up later today with the release of FOMC meeting minutes. Until then, if you have any open positions or are looking to take any positions due to the lack of volume in the markets, please trade carefully. Please remember to like, comment, and follow us, as your support greatly helps us. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX 
by BluetonaFX
2
Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY JULY 04, 2023Key News: USA - United States - Independence Day Australia - RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) Wall Street's main indices closed with modest gains on Monday in a shortened session, as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged and bank shares showed resilience, signaling a subdued start to the second half of the year. Driven by news of record-breaking vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, Tesla saw a notable increase of 6.9% in its shares. Wells Fargo stock daily chart Citigroup stock daily chart In the realm of the financial markets, major banks emerged victorious as they adeptly navigated the rigorous annual health assessment conducted by the Federal Reserve, which, in turn, paved the way for them to raise their dividends. This accomplishment reverberated positively through the stock market, propelling their share prices to soar. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), one of the prominent players in the banking sector, witnessed a remarkable 1.7% increase in the value of its shares, demonstrating its resilience and strategic prowess in the face of regulatory scrutiny. Meanwhile, Citigroup (NYSE: C), another heavyweight contender in the financial arena, experienced a solid ascent of 1.5% in its share price, attesting to its strong financial footing and ability to maintain stability in a constantly evolving economic landscape. The impact of the banks' successful performance was not confined to individual entities but had a broader effect on the industry. The S&P 500 banks index, serving as a barometer of the overall health and performance of major banking institutions, closed with a notable 1.5% gain, showcasing the collective strength and positive sentiment surrounding the financial sector as a whole. As investors and market participants alike acknowledged the banks' resilience and ability to meet regulatory requirements while delivering returns to shareholders, confidence in the stability and growth potential of the banking industry surged. This boost in investor sentiment bodes well for the financial sector, indicating a more optimistic outlook and paving the way for potential future expansions and innovations in the realm of banking and finance. S&P 500 daily chart The week ahead holds the promise of heightened volatility for the US dollar, as market participants brace themselves for potential fluctuations. At present, the Dollar Index reflects a downward trend, indicating a weaker position for the American currency. However, there is a possibility that it may undergo a significant test, aiming to reach the 104 level in the near future. Such a scenario would likely be influenced by a combination of economic factors, global events, and market sentiment, which can swiftly impact currency valuations. On the other hand, the Euro, serving as a key counterpart to the US dollar, is anticipated to maintain a relatively stable trading range. Market projections suggest that the Euro will continue to fluctuate within the boundaries of 1.08 to 1.10 against the US dollar. This range highlights a level of consistency in the Euro's performance and reflects the current equilibrium between the two major currencies. Factors influencing the Euro's movement may include economic indicators, political developments in the Eurozone, and any major policy decisions made by the European Central Bank. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The EUR/JPY currency pair faces a crucial hurdle in order to avoid being stuck in a sideways range. A decisive breakthrough above the 158 level is necessary to signal a potential upward momentum. Such a breakthrough would indicate a shift in favor of the euro against the Japanese yen, potentially opening up further opportunities for the pair to appreciate. Traders and investors will closely monitor the price action around this level to determine if the pair can gather enough strength to break free from the sideways range and establish a new upward trend. On the other hand, the USD/JPY pair faces a different scenario. If the pair remains below the 145 level, there is a possibility of a decline towards the 144 level. This implies that the US dollar might weaken against the Japanese yen, reflecting a potential shift in favor of the yen. The 145 level acts as a crucial resistance, and failing to surpass it could indicate a lack of buying pressure for the US dollar. Traders and investors will carefully monitor the price dynamics and market sentiment surrounding this level to assess whether the pair will continue its downward movement and potentially target the 144 level. EUR/JPY and USD/JPY daily chart persistent inflation, robust economic data, and the resulting anticipation of higher interest rates. These factors have collectively exerted downward pressure on the price of gold, contributing to a challenging environment for the precious metal. Despite a minor recovery witnessed in the past few trading sessions, during which the price briefly dipped below the $1,900 mark, the overall trajectory for gold remains bearish. This implies that the prevailing sentiment and market dynamics are tilted towards further downward movement in the price of gold. The persistence of inflationary pressures has been a primary factor influencing the demand for gold as a safe haven and inflation hedge. Strong economic data, indicating a robust and expanding economy, has bolstered market confidence and reduced the appeal of holding gold as a protective asset. Additionally, the expectation of higher interest rates has amplified the attractiveness of alternative investment options, potentially diverting capital away from gold. While short-term fluctuations and temporary recoveries are not uncommon in financial markets, the broader trend for gold suggests a bearish outlook. Traders, investors, and market participants will closely monitor key economic indicators, central bank actions, and any shifts in market sentiment that may impact the future trajectory of gold prices. XAU/USD daily chart Indeed, there are indications of weakening momentum around the $1,900 level for gold, which raises the possibility of a corrective move in the near future. This observation suggests that the selling pressure and downward momentum may be losing steam, potentially paving the way for a temporary rebound or consolidation in the price of gold. However, it's crucial to note that a loss of momentum alone does not guarantee an immediate and decisive reversal in price direction. If there is a significant break below the $1,900 level, it could potentially trigger another downward plunge for gold, especially if momentum gains strength. Such a scenario would reflect a shift in market sentiment, with increased selling pressure overpowering any temporary recovery or consolidation. The extent of the downward move would depend on various factors, including market dynamics, investor sentiment, and the overall economic landscape. Considering the nearly 9% decline in gold prices since early May, a correction would not come as a surprise. Corrections are natural and healthy price movements that often occur after a significant rally or decline. They allow the market to reassess the prevailing trend, absorb new information, and establish a more sustainable price level. Traders, investors, and market participants closely monitoring the gold market will keep a watchful eye on key levels, momentum indicators, and other relevant factors to gauge the potential for a corrective move. BTC/USD daily chart The cryptocurrency Bitcoin has been displaying notable volatility, primarily fluctuating between the range of $30,000 to $31,000. This range-bound movement can be seen as encouraging by the crypto community, especially considering Bitcoin's recent impressive rally. Although Bitcoin has not experienced further significant gains, the fact that it has not retraced a substantial portion of its recent surge suggests that traders and investors maintain an optimistic outlook. They perceive the current phase as a consolidation period within a larger upward movement. It is important to note that the ultimate outcome and direction of Bitcoin's price movement will depend on future news developments and market factors. The hypothesis of this consolidation phase serving as a stepping stone for a potential continuation of the upward trend is speculative and will require time to confirm or refute. However, based on the information available thus far, the current market behavior surrounding Bitcoin is generally viewed as positive. The absence of a significant retracement following a substantial rally can be interpreted as a sign of resilience and underlying strength in the market. It demonstrates that there is ongoing support and demand for Bitcoin, even amidst fluctuations and uncertainty. As with any investment or trading activity involving cryptocurrencies, it is crucial for participants to exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and stay informed about market developments. Cryptocurrency markets are known for their volatility and can be influenced by various factors, including regulatory decisions, adoption trends, and overall market sentiment.
by FOREXN1
14
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JUNE 29, 2023Mixed Trading Day Driven By Market Reactions To Powell's Remarks And Tech Stock Performance Key News: USA - Fed Chair Powell Speaks USA - GDP (QoQ) (Q1) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) During Wednesday's trading session, the Nasdaq saw a moderate rise, driven by the positive performance of large-cap stocks. However, contrasting this upward trend, both the S&P 500 and the Dow ended the day with losses. The decline in these indices was influenced by comments made by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell's statements indicated a strong possibility of further rate hikes and expressed skepticism regarding inflation reaching the central bank's target rate within the foreseeable future, stating that it may not occur "this year or next year." NASDAQ indice daily chart DJI indice daily chart SPX indice daily chart During a European Central Bank forum, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expanded on his earlier remarks, discussing the potential for future rate increases and keeping the possibility of a hike at the upcoming policy meeting in late July on the table. Despite an initial dip into negative territory, investors exhibited a relatively calm reaction to Powell's comments, likely due to positive indications of economic strength. Throughout the trading session, one notable highlight was Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), which achieved a new all-time high and closed at a record high for the second consecutive session. This impressive performance from Apple contributed to the overall gains in the market. Additionally, prominent companies such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) played significant roles in driving the upward momentum observed in the S&P index. The market's response to Powell's statements suggests that investors are maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook, considering both the potential for future rate increases and the underlying strength of the economy. As they assess these factors, market participants closely monitor the upcoming policy meeting and eagerly anticipate further developments that could shape the trajectory of the financial markets. Apple daily chart However, chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), known for its popularity among investors interested in artificial intelligence, experienced a decline of 1.8% and emerged as the primary detractor for the benchmark index. This downward movement was triggered by a report from the Wall Street Journal, indicating that the United States might impose additional restrictions on the export of AI chips to China. The prospect of stricter regulations in this key market created concerns and impacted Nvidia's stock performance. Despite the decline in Nvidia's shares, European markets maintained their positive momentum on the following day, following a break in the six-day losing streak observed on Tuesday. However, gains were tempered by remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, which injected a note of caution into the market sentiment. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continued to weaken, reaching record lows on a trade-weighted basis. This decline in the yen was sustained, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda provided no indication that policymakers were ready to intervene or halt this ongoing depreciation. The weakening yen can have implications for various sectors of the Japanese economy, including exports and international trade. Investors and market participants closely monitor the developments surrounding Nvidia's potential export restrictions and their implications for the global technology sector. USD/JPY daily chart The subdued performance observed in the US market sets the stage for a flat opening in European markets. However, market participants are cautiously optimistic that upcoming data releases, starting with Germany's June inflation figures, could potentially influence a softening of the prevailing hawkish stance. In recent months, there has been a noticeable deceleration in inflationary pressures, with the rate dropping from 7.6% in April to 6.3% in May. While the anticipated June figures are expected to show a modest increase to 6.8%, they are unlikely to alleviate the concerns held by the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding the rapid receding of inflation. The market's focus now turns to the crucial release of Germany's inflation data, as it carries significant implications for the broader Eurozone economy. Analysts and investors alike will closely scrutinize these figures to assess the extent of inflationary pressures within the region and to gain insights into the potential policy responses from the ECB. A continuation of the trend towards lower inflation could reinforce the calls for a more accommodative stance, potentially shifting market expectations away from imminent rate hikes. While the June inflation figures are expected to reflect a slight uptick, it is crucial to note that they are unlikely to significantly alter the prevailing concerns surrounding inflationary dynamics. The ECB remains vigilant in monitoring the situation and is poised to take appropriate action if inflationary pressures fail to stabilize or rise in line with their targets. Beyond Germany's inflation data, market participants will also closely monitor upcoming releases from other Eurozone countries, as they provide additional insights into the broader inflationary trends within the region. The overall goal is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying inflation dynamics and their potential impact on the ECB's monetary policy decisions. GBP/USD daily chart Towards the end of the London session, the British pound experienced pronounced weakness within the G10 space. This decline can be attributed to remarks made by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey during his participation in the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. Bailey's comments regarding UK interest rates contributed to the pound's vulnerability, as he indicated that they are likely to remain elevated for an extended period due to persistent inflationary pressures. The latest data on headline inflation in the UK revealed no change, with a figure of 8.7% for the twelve months leading up to May. Moreover, year-on-year core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, surged to 7.1%. Bailey highlighted this as a specific challenge confronting the UK economy, further dampening market sentiment towards the pound. Concerns arose regarding the potential risks of a recession stemming from excessive policy tightening in response to the elevated inflation levels. Investors responded to Bailey's remarks by reassessing their outlook on the pound, which resulted in notable weakness for the currency. The market began to question the potential consequences of prolonged high interest rates and the potential negative impact on economic growth. The possibility of a recession became a prominent concern, given the perceived risks associated with excessive policy tightening. As market participants absorb Bailey's comments and evaluate the implications for the UK economy, the British pound remains under scrutiny. Traders and analysts closely monitor any further developments related to inflationary pressures and the Bank of England's policy stance. The market sentiment towards the pound will likely be influenced by future economic data releases and any subsequent statements from central bank officials, as they provide insights into the potential course of action and the management of inflationary challenges. EUR/USD daily chart The euro experienced a downturn in sentiment yesterday, primarily driven by a mixed set of data releases. While the Italian Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slower decline than anticipated in May, indicating lower deflationary pressures in the country, consumer price inflation in the eurozone eased more than expected, signifying a slowdown in price growth. These contrasting inflationary signals added to the overall weak sentiment surrounding the euro. Adding to the concerns, the European Central Bank (ECB) reported a deceleration in money supply growth, indicating a moderation in liquidity. This moderation could potentially impact economic activity and limit the availability of funds for businesses and consumers. Furthermore, loans to the private sector expanded at a slower rate than expected, suggesting a potential tightening of credit conditions due to higher interest rates. This tightening of credit could hinder investment and spending, thereby impacting economic growth. Taken together, these indicators pointed towards a more restrictive credit environment and raised concerns about the overall economic outlook. The mixed data and the signals of potential credit tightening weighed on market sentiment towards the euro, contributing to its weaker performance.
by FOREXN1
3
5/31: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES has been in a broad dip-buy regime since October. Today marked the first post-rally pullback, and the ES had a very choppy/corrective session. We are in a confusing post-rally consolidation phase, with a new consolidation range between 4206 and 4243. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down Key Structures The purple triangle is one of the key structures I'm keeping an eye on, with a clear support line extending from May 10 through May 24. Support is currently at 4145. The sizable blue broadening formation is also a key structure to watch. Generally, these patterns tend to "fill out” over time, so when support of this pattern tests, resistance tends to become a magnet. Support Levels First support down is at 4212, followed by 4206 and major support at 4193-89. Further support levels include 4165, 4145, and 4113-4116. Resistance Levels Major resistance levels include 4221-24, 4243, 4273-77 (blue broadening formation resistance), and 4292. Additional resistance exists at 4313 and 4342. Trading Plan Consider going long at 4213, provided it holds above 4212. Initially, aim for 4243, but be cautious chasing in a choppy range. If the 4221-24 level is reclaimed, it would be bullish. However, if 4213 fails, it could signal a bearish case. If we drop below 4213, only consider going short if there's a significant bounce and hours of acceptance at given levels. Wrap Up Following the recent rally, we are now in a period of choppy consolidation. Ideally, we can hold 4213, potentially backtest 4194-89, and continue the basing process by bouncing to 4243. If 4194-89 fails, we may start our journey back to triangle support, which would be a warning for bulls. Remember to stick to the three fundamental principles: do not overtrade, manage trades using a standard procedure, and pay attention to failed breakdowns and breakouts when looking for entry points. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
5/25: Market Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanSPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ESM2023 & SPY ETF - Market Update - 5/25/23 Today's Recap This week has been a mirror image of last week, with the ES building a smaller triangle and breaking down, triggering a nearly 100-point sell. Although this seems dramatic, similar dips have occurred in the past month and have been bought. The question now is whether this dip will also be bought. Debt Ceiling Crisis The current market environment is complex and headline-driven, with the debt ceiling debate making the next few days of trading potentially difficult. Traders need to be flexible and prepared to react to price movements, rather than trying to predict or forecast the market. Bond Yield Rates Bond yields have been fluctuating due to the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling crisis. This has led to increased volatility in the market, making it more challenging for traders to navigate. Key Structures The latest rally of this bull leg started because we broke out a triangle structure shown in blue below. It is currently at 4123-4116 and represents an important back-test, which we managed to defend. The yellow rising channel connecting the May lows. This broke down yesterday. As always, when price breaks down any sort of significant level that level needs to be recovered in order to “end” the immediate move (down). Currently, this is 4165-75 and I would say a “bottom is in” when that is recovered. While this is very far away - note the lowest white trendline. This connects the October low with the March low and is currently 3980. I consider this the driving trendline controlling the multi-month bull market we are currently in. We remain in a clear uptrend by every definable measure. The Flat Bottom You can see the flat bottom pattern failed to hold and triggered the sell-off at 4190. The Yellow Uptrend Channel The yellow uptrend channel, which connects the May lows, broke down yesterday. In order to end the immediate move down, the level of 4165-75 needs to be recovered. Supports and resistances are listed, and I discuss potential bids and trade scenarios for both bull and bear cases. In summary, 4195-4220 is chop, and there is a heavy headline risk due to the debt ceiling. Bulls control above the structure Bears control below the structure The back-test level is now 4140-42. Support Levels The bull case would look something like yesterday lows continue holding, and from there we push up the levels to 4147, 4156, then 4166-75 where ES can try another sell. 4123, 4116 (major), 4100-05 (major), 4087, 4075 (major), 4061, 4053 (major), 4040, 4020-25 (major), 4013, 4000 (major), 3977-83 (major). Resistance Levels Starts on the failure of yesterday’s low. Ideally, one more bounce attempt at 4116-23 before trying a short. After this bounce though, consider a short 4115 or so for a move to 4100-05 where gains should be locked in. 4135 (major), 4147, 4157, 4166 (major), 4175 (major), 4191-95 (major), 4204 (major), 4212, 4221 (major), 4235, 4242-45 (major), 4253, 4259, 4270-75 (major). Trading Plan If buying big red candles, these are “knife catch trades”. Size them down. 4123-4116 is major support still, one could bid it direct again or wait for a decisive failed breakdown. In terms of spots to try knife catches, 4100-05 and 4075 would be possible regions. Wrap Up In conclusion, the market is currently in a complex and headline-driven environment due to the debt ceiling crisis. Traders need to be flexible and prepared to react to price movements, rather than trying to predict or forecast the market. Keep an eye on key structures, support and resistance levels, and have a solid trading plan in place to navigate the market successfully. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
5/23: Market Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanToday's Recap The failed breakdown, my primary setup, and how it leads to profitable trades are all covered in this newsletter. Along with providing the day's workable trade plan, I also discuss how I've been managing my long since last week. Market cycles between Trend and Chop are common. Our 105-point rally last week was an extreme Trend, and it was followed by an untidy Chop as a base was being built. It's crucial to keep in mind that nobody can forecast intraday price movement, especially in Chop. When a setup triggers, a trader's responsibility is to respond and manage the trade using a predetermined procedure. Debt Ceiling Crisis The United States government is facing a debt ceiling crisis. The debt ceiling is a limit on the amount of money the government can borrow to pay its bills. The government is currently about $28 trillion in debt, and the debt ceiling is set to be reached on June 1. If the government does not raise the debt ceiling, it will be unable to pay its bills and will default on its debt. This would have a devastating impact on the economy, leading to a recession and a loss of jobs. Congress is currently negotiating a deal to raise the debt ceiling, but there is no agreement yet. The Republicans are demanding spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling, while the Democrats are refusing to make any cuts. The debt ceiling crisis is a major threat to the economy. It is important for Congress to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible. Bond Yield Rates The yield on the 10-year Treasury note opened at 3.717% today. The rise in bond yields is due to concerns about the debt ceiling crisis and the prospect of higher inflation. Higher bond yields make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can slow down economic growth. They can also make it more expensive for consumers to borrow money, which can lead to a decline in spending. The rise in bond yields is a sign that investors are worried about the future of the economy. It is important to watch bond yields closely, as they can provide early warning signs of a recession. Key Structures Key market structures I'm tracking include: The pink triangle that contained all of last week's action pre-breakout A 2-day triangle since Friday The 4166-71 area The large broadening formation pattern in blue Due to ongoing debt ceiling negotiations, there is increased headline risk and risk of large, bi-directional moves out of nowhere. The Week-Long Triangle Structure This structure triggered the recent breakout. The market dynamics can be summarized as follows: Bulls control above the structure Bears control below the structure The back-test level is now 4140-42. The Yellow Uptrend Channel This structure, connecting the May 4th low and this week's low, is a crucial support area at around 4140-42. Bulls will want to hold this structure. Supports and resistances are listed, and I discuss potential bids and trade scenarios for both bull and bear cases. In summary, 4195-4220 is chop, and there is a heavy headline risk due to the debt ceiling. Support Levels As long as 4147 holds, we continue our upward trajectory. The 4140-42 area, derived from the triangle structure and the yellow uptrend channel, is an obvious structure bulls want to hold. 4205, 4195-97 (major), 4191, 4180, 4167-71 (major), 4155 (major), 4144, 4130-35 (major), 4123, 4112, 4097-4100 (major), 4092, 4077-80 (major), 4069, 4061, 4053 (major), 4041 (major), 4015-20 (major), 3995 (major) Resistance Levels Initial resistance was at 4192, acting as a magnet, as previously identified. According to the blue broadening formation, the next major resistance level is now at 4242. 4217-20 (major), 4231, 4240-42, 4248 (major), 4261 (major), 4268, 4280 (major), 4288, 4306 (major), 4319, 4325-30 (major), 4342. Trading Plan As long as 4195 holds, we keep filling out the triangle, targeting 4231, 4242+. If 4195 fails, we start the sell and I'd be looking to go short. Wrap Up Never fight the trend. Stay patient and adhere to your trading plan. Follow the key structures, resistance, and support levels closely. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
5/22: Market Recap and OutlookCharting 101, Trailing Stops, Bond Yields, and the Debt Ceiling Introduction In this newsletter, we'll recap the recent market action, discuss the power of holding runners, talk about strategies for trailing stops, and provide an update on bond yields and the debt ceiling. We'll also provide an actionable plan for the upcoming trading day. Market Recap Last week saw a tight trading range, with the market eventually breaking out and reaching 4228. Friday was OPEX day, which led to choppy trading conditions and the market mostly pinned around 4200. This week's market action demonstrated many foundational charting concepts, such as the transition between Chop and Trend. Trailing Stops Trailing stops are an essential part of a trading system, helping to lock in profits and minimize losses. The strategy involves dragging the stop up behind the most significant swing low on the 30-minute chart, usually once or twice a day. The goal is to eventually get stopped out, with the stop tightened as the trade progresses. Actionable Plan For the upcoming trading day, keep an eye on the following structures: Blue broadening formation: Resistance is at 4245, while support is at 4040. A breakout has a bullish bias, with the next major magnet at 4305. White broadening formation: We broke out on Thursday, with a backtest at 4200. Purple rising channel: Support is at 4148, controlling the short-term uptrend. Triangle structure: The measured move target is in the high 4260s. Support and resistance levels, as well as potential entry points for long and short positions, are detailed below: Support Levels 4200-4197 (major), 4192, 4176, 4166-70 (major), 4155, 4145-48 (major), 4135(major - triangle backtest), 4128 (broadening formation support), 4114, 4105, 4092 (major), 4078 (major), 4067, 4061, 4055 (major), 4040-43 (major), 4033, 4015-20 (major). Resistance Levels 4216-4221, 4228, 4239, 4246 (major - broadening formation), 4255-60 (major), 4275-80 (major), 4289, 4300 (major), 4305-08 (major), 4320-23 (major), 4342-45 (major), 4360, 4368 (major). Summary After a clean, easy rally leg, expect some complex, messy trading as the market transitions back into Chop. React to the market action using the provided plan, with a loose lean towards a bullish bias as long as 4200 holds. If 4200-4197 fails, a pullback is likely, and short positions may be taken. Bond Yields The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.95% on Friday, the highest level since May 2019. The rise in bond yields was driven by concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates. Debt Ceiling The US debt ceiling is currently set at $28.9 trillion. The Treasury Department has said that it will run out of money to pay its bills on October 18, 2023. If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by then, the US government will be unable to pay its bills and could default on its debt. Conclusion The market is facing a number of headwinds, including rising inflation, rising interest rates, and the looming debt ceiling deadline. You should be prepared for a volatile market in the coming days and weeks ahead. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Riding the Bull: Are We Set to Rally Higher?SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES CME_MINI:ESM2023 & AMEX:SPY ETF - Evening Market Update - 10/18/23 Today's Recap We saw a remarkable movement in ES over the past week. It was technical analysis at its finest: a 10-day tight range was followed by a breakout, just as the underlying trend suggested. As per historical trends, these range breakouts can lead to sustained rallies. Key Structures Several key structures have emerged that are worth watching: The Week-Long Triangle Structure: This structure triggered the recent breakout. The market dynamics can be summarized as follows: bulls control above it, and bears control below it. The back-test level is now 4140-42. The Purple Uptrend Channel: This structure, connecting the May 4th low and this week's low, is a crucial support area at around 4140-42. Bulls will want to hold this structure. The Blue and White Broadening Formation: This structure has been a focus in our discussions. The white broadening formation resistance, at around 4197, was the target for weeks, and it broke out late today. Support Levels As long as 4147 holds, we continue our upward trajectory. The 4140-42 area, derived from the triangle structure and the purple uptrend channel, is an obvious structure bulls want to hold. 4197, the previous resistance, has now turned into a support level. 4197-95 (major), 4182-85 (major), 4175, 4168, 4156 (major), 4140-42 (major - backtests the triangle breakout), 4135, 4126 (major - triangle support), 4114, 4106, 4092-95 (major - broadening formation support). Resistance Levels Initial resistance was at 4192, acting as a magnet, as previously identified. According to the blue broadening formation, the next major resistance level is now at 4242. 4212, 4221 (major), 4235, 4243 (major), 4249, 4263 (major), 4270-72, 4277 (major), 4296, 4306 (major). Trading Plan for Tomorrow The plan for tomorrow is straightforward: If the market remains above the key structures (4140-42), we should anticipate a continued upward trend toward the resistance at 4242. However, if the market dips below these structures, it could signal a shift in control to bears. Wrap Up Stay patient and adhere to your trading plan. Follow the key structures, resistance, and support levels closely. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Is AUDJPY set to take a short-term pause? After days of buying, we are seeing a small pause at this point in the day. The AUDJPY has started to see some red after a 5-day rally. Price is stalling at a previous level of resistance, seen at 89.90. We still see price on an uptrend with a break of the last downtrend. But buyers need to clear this resistance point to get the trend back on track. The MA supports the uptrend, as does the CCI being above the 0 line. A lower high has formed on the CCI, but our main focus will remain on price and the current level of resistance. If we see a higher break, we will look for a test of 90.50. If resistance can hold buyers and we see anew new move lower, we want to see the trendline hold, or it could be a sign that sellers are planning a deep move. Good trading, and enjoy your weekend.
Long
by Eightcap
US Dollar and Crude Oil Euro UpdateHey Traders so today wanted to give quick update on these charts. US Dollar still showing signs of strength and Crude Oil is now back in downtrend in my opinion. Keep in mind that all these technical developments can change daily. But I believe you only have to check it once a day when the market closes to see the long term trend. I think if you see a bottom or top formation on the daily charts normally it is accuarate because it takes the market time to carve out these long term formations. Of course always keep in mind fundamentals can alter these techincal analysis formations also. Enjoy! Trade Well, Clifford
ICEUS:DX1!
by TradeTheIndex