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BTC Bullish Push: Key Levels & Extreme Greed WarningGM, this morning's BTC candle close on the 24th was quite bullish. Weekend volume tends to be low, but a nice push for BTC. If the price manages to close above 69K++, the chance for a pump to the green zone at 76150 - 77302 increases. However, be cautious as of today, March 25, 2024, the fear and greed index shows in the extreme greed zone, which means there is still potential for market makers to sell their assets, leading BTC to drop further, and possibly a bearish scenario might come true. Always keep funds ready to shoot your chosen altcoins at discounted prices if the market provides the opportunity. Stay safe and always trade like a robot without emotion. That's all for today's crypto update. I'm Akki, signing off with one chart.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by x_Akki
BTC Bears Roar: Key Levels & Trader TipsGood morning, condolences to the traders who got hit hard in the market last night. Stay strong, guys. Currently, BTC is quite strong bearish. If BTC manages to close below the yellow zone at 66455.12, the next possibility is it will test the big volume area in the orange zone 64846 - 63261. For spot trading, let's see where the market is heading. If futures feel exhausting, you can take a break for 1-2 days to recover mentally. Stay safe and always trade like a robot without emotion. That's all for today's crypto update. I'm Akki, signing off with one chart.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by x_Akki
BTC Daily Insight: Bearish Trends and Scalping Tips#personaloutlook #marketupdate #BTCUSD daily on 22/05/2024 #cryptoatglance Good morning, my outlook on BTC for today is more or less the same as yesterday. The target is to retest the 68889 - 66332 area first. I see potential for today's candle to close bearish again, so stay safe for those in futures. This week looks like it's going to be up and down in a small timeframe, so be extra careful if you're scalping. Trade like a robot without emotion to keep your mental state intact. Stay safe and that's all for today's crypto update. I'm Akki, one chart, one love.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by x_Akki
Bitcoin BTC Market Update May 11, 2024#BTC UPDATE 🔵 Technical Analysis (1D): BTC is currently consolidating within a falling wedge pattern, managing to stay above the indicated level. A breach of this level may lead to a retest of the support trendline within the wedge. Conversely, a #bounce from this point followed by a breakout of the wedge would signal a shift to bullish momentum. Given the current market uncertainty, it's crucial to monitor price action closely. 🔵 Wrap-Up: BTC remains in a falling wedge, holding above a critical level. A breakdown would prompt a retest of the support trendline, whereas a bounce and subsequent breakout would indicate bullish sentiment. In light of market fluctuations, vigilant monitoring of price action remains essential. #Bitcoin Daily Range: Upper Limit: $63,500Lower Limit: $60,200 (+-11% based on moving average volatility from opening to closing points) 🔵 Scalp Entries: (For advanced traders only - moderate/high risk) 🔵 Long Entry: $57,000 🔴 Short Entry: $65,000
Short
by ProfitsNinja
2
📉 TOTAL Market Update 📉Yesterday's sharp selloff saw TOTAL market capitalization drop from $2.3T to $2.13T. Today's FOMC meeting could exacerbate downside pressure. Support Levels: Immediate support: Bottom of the current range at around $2.054T. Further support: $1.80T - $1.95T (daily 200 MA) if $2.054T is breached. Market Outlook: May historically experiences trading challenges, often characterized by choppiness. 📈💡 Stay cautious and monitor market developments closely! #MarketUpdate #TradingInsights 🌐📊
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Richtv_official
1
Nifty Short , Medium& Long Term View-26-Feb-24 to 01-Mar-24Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View-26-Feb-24 to 01-Mar-24 Nifty closed at 22212 (22040) and touched low & high of 21824 & 22297 RSI and stochastics levels reduced this week (90% & 90% Respectively). Both Rsi & Stochastics is in overbought zone. Volatality was seen on Thursday with more than 400 points. Market crossed 22150 last week. Need to decisively close above all time high 22294/22314 (Fib Resistance). Earlier 30-35% profit booking was suggested (except Bank & IT stocks). Partial Booking can be considered for further 5-10% wherever valuation are high. There is no worry on Good Valued Stocks which can be kept for Long Term. This cash will be useful to buy when during the fall. Nifty IT 38045 (38477 ) -To continue hold. Nifty IT touched new high of 38477 last week. Major support at 34918 /34000. Target can be 40000. Nifty bank 46554 ( Prev Week 45634 ) -To continue buy on dips. Nifty Bank touched 47350 high last week. Target 48618 ( all time high) support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). Purchase on Dips. Refer to detailed comments in the bottom. Nifty 22212- Short Term ( Neutral ) All time high 22294/ 22314 (Fib Resistance) will be a key resistance. Support - 21554 (Fib Support ), 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Nifty Medium Term & long Term - Can buy at 20800 -21000 level in case of dip for a short run up. Target Fibonacci extended resistance is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak. nifty will move to next target 22819 (Fib Resistance)/22500. Support at 20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance) Long Term Market expected range bound between 22800 to 18800 expected till mid of 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Comments : Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. But to a surprise Nifty IT moved up 4-5% up as US economy is recovering. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000. Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Nifty Bank ( 46554) tried to move above key resistances. Continue to buy on dips. As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
BTC Market Update 5th February In the latest analysis post, I've closely examined the performance of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) with a particular focus on recent liquidity movements. Over the past week, spanning five trading sessions, a noticeable deceleration in the rate of daily outflows from the trust has been observed. Specifically, the average daily outflow rate has contracted by +20%, indicating a substantial reduction in the volume of withdrawals. Since its inception, Grayscale's Bitcoin exposure has significantly diminished, registering a reduction of 127,000 BTC, equivalent to a 20.5% decrease in its holdings. This contraction can be attributed to various factors, including the liquidation of positions by discount buyers, the unwinding of assets by the FTX estate, and a notable shift by investors towards more cost-effective ETF options available in the market. Regarding Bitcoin's market direction, my analysis suggests a period of consolidation before any potential upward momentum. Currently, there are no discernible indicators hinting at an imminent downturn in Bitcoin's value; the market conditions appear stable and ready to grow. This stability holds significance for the crypto market, as historical patterns indicate that an increase in Bitcoin's price often precedes similar uptrends across the broader altcoin market. In essence, when Bitcoin's price rises, it tends to have a ripple effect, elevating the value of other coins. The intricate interplay between Bitcoin's liquidity movements and its price dynamics, coupled with the subsequent impact on the altcoin market, underscores the complexity of the cryptocurrency investment landscape. Having a long exposure in the consolidation range is considered a favorable entry point, especially for portfolios without existing long exposure.
Long
by TheArabianWhale
1
BTC Market Update 14th January Post the spot ETF approval, there was a notable surge in significant inflows marked by high volumes. However, a distinct trend emerged with the redemption of AMEX:GBTC , highlighting two crucial points: first, there has been selling pressure on GBTC, and second, the anticipated inflows were lower than initially expected. Weekends often witness limited liquidity, and order books are less robust, implying a potential gradual decline until further clarity emerges. While a correction in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD seems probable, especially following an uninterrupted rally, such fluctuations are deemed normal in market behavior. During the weekend, GBTC couldn't execute sales, and BTC experienced a drop from 49K to 43K within 24 hours, partly influenced by Larry Fink's positive remarks on an ETH ETF, leading to a more than 20% rise in ETHBTC. However, GBTC is expected to resume selling on Tuesday. A second downturn is anticipated when GBTC announces outflows for yesterday. Contrary to the observed $94M outflow for GBTC, it pertained to Wednesday, preceding its going live. Thursday's outflows likely reached the hundreds of millions, already sold into the market via CME futures and BITO. Authorized Participants (APs) sell futures and manage BTC on a T+1 basis. People observed a $94M outflow for GBTC, but that was actually for Wednesday, prior to it going live. The outflows for Thursday are probably in the hundreds of millions, already sold into the market via CME futures and BITO. The Authorized Participants (APs) sell futures and then handle BTC on a T+1 basis. The advisable strategy for the time being is to adopt a patient approach, observing the market without immediate action. A prudent course of action is to wait and reassess the situation.
by TheArabianWhale
BTC Market Update 12/30/2023BINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin has recently seen a deceleration in the mid-$40,000 range, encountering resistance levels between $43,000 and $44,000 on both a weekly and daily basis. From a technical standpoint, surpassing this resistance zone is crucial for supporting a bullish continuation. Currently, the market is facing challenges in overcoming these levels. To approach this situation cautiously, a positive sign of momentum would be a weekly close above $44,100. Alternatively, a more assertive stance requires a daily close above $43,900, indicating strength in the short-term trend. Traders focusing on technical pullbacks to support levels should consider $37,000 as the earliest significant pullback level on the daily chart. However, this may be deemed an aggressive entry point. Beyond technical analysis, a pivotal factor is the imminent decision on the spot ETF, expected in early January. This event has the potential to significantly influence market dynamics, and we anticipate it to be a "sell-the-news" occurrence that bottoms shortly before a surge towards the halving. Prudent trading strategies involve either maintaining a long position from a lower entry point while anticipating volatility around the ETF announcement or adopting a wait-and-see approach until the aftermath of the ETF decision becomes clear.
by TheArabianWhale
1
3 Scenario Outcome for BitcoinSpeculation is just that, only speculation. Ideas to guide your trading and/or investing journey. I put a good amount of time in researching and charting over the last year to specifically develop this thesis. I hope you enjoy and please like and share, even if it's to ridicule my analysis! With that said, it looks like there are three scenarios that are 'most' likely to play out over the next 2 years: Scenario 1: Worst case (Red Path). Bitcoin ETF's are denied and/or a major market crash happens beginning Dec '23 or Q1/Q2 '24. Targets are the lower channel back at bear market bottom, the Value area low (Blue) & nPOC (naked point of control sitting above VAL) or below, to include CME gaps of a. 20.3k b. 9.7k & c. 3k at the very worst. 12k bears will rejoice. I for one will be selling the farm and my first born at 9k or below. Scenario 2. Bitcoin ETF delays (Orange Path). The range continues with a top off near the Macro VAH at about where price stands as of today, 11/11/23 @ 37k-39k. Price would most likely seek to validate back to fair value at 32k, and then retest down to 20.3k for the CME gap fill creating one of the most powerful patterns as an inverse head and shoulders. Given the channels, this seems the most likely with an upside target to the VAH again near dump of April/May '22 and now resistance at 48k. Target is summer of '24. Scenario 3. Moon boy status (Green Path). This means the Bitcoin ETF was approved prior to any fundamental problems (ie FTX 2.0, WW3, declared depression, etc) and no need to wait for price to come down past 32k, possibly ever. B. There is the possibility of a priced in ETF scenario that allows for the channel to stay valid. In this case, if price action does not moon over 48k up to ATH's, it likely sets a re-accumulation zone above 48k, playing within the upper channel, with a last dip into the 30k's before we see ATH's. Either way, Bitcoin is ready to rock and roll. Now to the less juicy part of this bull run. Give the diminishing returns as most assets have as they age, it looks like 100k is going to be the biggest and baddest of all resistance from a percentage standpoint. Gone are the days of 33k% gains. From the top of each market cycle to the next top we go from over 1k% to now 250-ish% last cycle. Here's where I 'm at from a charting and fundamental stance: Bitcoin gets a 44-54% blow off top (Shown in price range) from previous ATH's up to 100k-ish. If it's more, great, sell because you've been stacking or you're long. Buy your lambo, more power to you. However, given the current M2 issue, loan maturations (refinancing in '25 from 2.9% to almost 5%) as well as the overall credit and savings crisis, Bitcoin's blow off top could be in the 80-88k range. That would put the total market crypto cap at ATH's of 3.5-4 Trillion range. If Chairman Powell decides to turn the printers on for 2025, then some of the moon boi's out there may see 150k, so we all win anyway from a plebs perspective. #Stackon
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Zseries33
2
US30 Analysis Today's focus: US30 Pattern – LH Support – 34,560 Resistance – 35,030 • Price set a new failed high, pressuring the current rally • US Employment data at due 8:30 am Today, we have run over US30 technicals and price action after yesterday’s selling set up a failed rally that could become a new lower high. We don’t have a directional bias at the moment, but we feel there are a few things to mention and watch heading up to today’s NFP data. Could weaker data support buyers, and if we see higher than expected data, could this maintain rates worries and drive price lower? Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:US30
by Eightcap
#BTC Up or Down?It's been 5 days since BTC is consolidating between 29400 and 28800$. Consolidation range is narrowing, that is why we can see almost zero volatility on the coin. Usually, after long consolidation we can expect a big move. Will this be move positive or negative - hard to say. because currently the situation is 50/50 Personally I would like to see downtrend scenario, and for this I have several reasons as: SPX currently shows Bearish move, USDT.D looks pretty bullish, news around Huobi exchange. All this can trigger BTC to go down towards 27 - 26K $. At the same time, if we will see a breakout through 29600$ (from the current price) and consolidation above this level, this will mean, that BTC will increase in the price towards to 32000$ where we can see weekly FVG. You can take hedge long and short positions on BTC. Just dont forget to follow RM!
by vazitrades
8/1: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES continues its characteristic bull market cycle of multi-day squeezes followed by wide rangebound consolidation under resistance, as it has done since July 19th. This pattern is expected to continue until a breakout occurs. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a bit 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines Manufacturing data weak across China and Eurozone with Germany showing the steepest decline since the pandemic. Key Structures The triangle at 4609 remains the key structure, despite being somewhat "busted". This level has been tested six times in the last week and is proving to be a strong resistance. The ascending triangle at 4569-4571 is now support. The large rising uptrend channel connecting the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel, with support currently at 4405 and resistance at 4650-55. Support Levels Supports are at 4608, 4602, 4594-92 (major), 4580, 4568-71 (major), 4556, 4549 (major), 4542, 4530 (major), 4515, 4500, 4488-92 (major), 4474, 4467, 4455-60 (major), 4442-45 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at 4608 (major), 4617, 4622 (major), 4631 (major), 4641, 4652-55 (major), 4664, 4670, 4681-84 (major), 4697, 4705 (major), 4714, 4722, 4740-45 (major), 4751, 4762 (major). Trading Plan The bull case is in play above 4592 and 4600, with a potential breakout to 4622 and then up to 4652-55. The bear case begins on the fail of 4592, with a potential short at 4589 for a move down the levels. If 4592 fails, it's time to short. Wrap Up ES continues to consolidate and build its base. As long as 4600 holds, with any spikes down to 4592 quickly bought, ES can continue to base for a push to 4622, then a final dip, then a breakout up the levels to 4631, then the 4655 magnet. If 4592 fails, it's time to short. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Market Update - BTC, BTC1!, ETH, SP, NQ, DXYQuick market update focusing on Bitcoin and covering BTC CME Futures, ETH, SP, NQ, and DXY. Effectively Bitcoin is still holding the $30k support and trend does remain to the upside, with major news events starting Wednesday with inflation data, we are expecting an increase in volume/volatility. Overall we did breakdown from the range high but until the $30k support is lost and bearishly retested the overall trend remains to the upside. TradFi is also holding its ranges continuing the rally, until higher timeframe structure is lost the expectation is that the upside trend will continue until proven otherwise. Generally we have hedged off BTC longs with some shorts from $31.2k and higher, we are still net long but have taken some profit in the upside of the range last week as a precaution. The play is the range until proven otherwise.
Long
by TrendmasterOfficial
1
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD Market UpdateHi Traders! GBPUSD seems to be currently content trading in the 1.27000 area. The price action on the 4H chart indicates possible nervousness or uncertainty from traders. There was a recent failed breakout above the bull flag with a downward trend in recent trading volumes to confirm any lack of momentum in the markets, so we are not expecting any big market moves for now. Activity may pick up later today with the release of FOMC meeting minutes. Until then, if you have any open positions or are looking to take any positions due to the lack of volume in the markets, please trade carefully. Please remember to like, comment, and follow us, as your support greatly helps us. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX 
by BluetonaFX
2
Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY JULY 04, 2023Key News: USA - United States - Independence Day Australia - RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) Wall Street's main indices closed with modest gains on Monday in a shortened session, as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged and bank shares showed resilience, signaling a subdued start to the second half of the year. Driven by news of record-breaking vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, Tesla saw a notable increase of 6.9% in its shares. Wells Fargo stock daily chart Citigroup stock daily chart In the realm of the financial markets, major banks emerged victorious as they adeptly navigated the rigorous annual health assessment conducted by the Federal Reserve, which, in turn, paved the way for them to raise their dividends. This accomplishment reverberated positively through the stock market, propelling their share prices to soar. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), one of the prominent players in the banking sector, witnessed a remarkable 1.7% increase in the value of its shares, demonstrating its resilience and strategic prowess in the face of regulatory scrutiny. Meanwhile, Citigroup (NYSE: C), another heavyweight contender in the financial arena, experienced a solid ascent of 1.5% in its share price, attesting to its strong financial footing and ability to maintain stability in a constantly evolving economic landscape. The impact of the banks' successful performance was not confined to individual entities but had a broader effect on the industry. The S&P 500 banks index, serving as a barometer of the overall health and performance of major banking institutions, closed with a notable 1.5% gain, showcasing the collective strength and positive sentiment surrounding the financial sector as a whole. As investors and market participants alike acknowledged the banks' resilience and ability to meet regulatory requirements while delivering returns to shareholders, confidence in the stability and growth potential of the banking industry surged. This boost in investor sentiment bodes well for the financial sector, indicating a more optimistic outlook and paving the way for potential future expansions and innovations in the realm of banking and finance. S&P 500 daily chart The week ahead holds the promise of heightened volatility for the US dollar, as market participants brace themselves for potential fluctuations. At present, the Dollar Index reflects a downward trend, indicating a weaker position for the American currency. However, there is a possibility that it may undergo a significant test, aiming to reach the 104 level in the near future. Such a scenario would likely be influenced by a combination of economic factors, global events, and market sentiment, which can swiftly impact currency valuations. On the other hand, the Euro, serving as a key counterpart to the US dollar, is anticipated to maintain a relatively stable trading range. Market projections suggest that the Euro will continue to fluctuate within the boundaries of 1.08 to 1.10 against the US dollar. This range highlights a level of consistency in the Euro's performance and reflects the current equilibrium between the two major currencies. Factors influencing the Euro's movement may include economic indicators, political developments in the Eurozone, and any major policy decisions made by the European Central Bank. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The EUR/JPY currency pair faces a crucial hurdle in order to avoid being stuck in a sideways range. A decisive breakthrough above the 158 level is necessary to signal a potential upward momentum. Such a breakthrough would indicate a shift in favor of the euro against the Japanese yen, potentially opening up further opportunities for the pair to appreciate. Traders and investors will closely monitor the price action around this level to determine if the pair can gather enough strength to break free from the sideways range and establish a new upward trend. On the other hand, the USD/JPY pair faces a different scenario. If the pair remains below the 145 level, there is a possibility of a decline towards the 144 level. This implies that the US dollar might weaken against the Japanese yen, reflecting a potential shift in favor of the yen. The 145 level acts as a crucial resistance, and failing to surpass it could indicate a lack of buying pressure for the US dollar. Traders and investors will carefully monitor the price dynamics and market sentiment surrounding this level to assess whether the pair will continue its downward movement and potentially target the 144 level. EUR/JPY and USD/JPY daily chart persistent inflation, robust economic data, and the resulting anticipation of higher interest rates. These factors have collectively exerted downward pressure on the price of gold, contributing to a challenging environment for the precious metal. Despite a minor recovery witnessed in the past few trading sessions, during which the price briefly dipped below the $1,900 mark, the overall trajectory for gold remains bearish. This implies that the prevailing sentiment and market dynamics are tilted towards further downward movement in the price of gold. The persistence of inflationary pressures has been a primary factor influencing the demand for gold as a safe haven and inflation hedge. Strong economic data, indicating a robust and expanding economy, has bolstered market confidence and reduced the appeal of holding gold as a protective asset. Additionally, the expectation of higher interest rates has amplified the attractiveness of alternative investment options, potentially diverting capital away from gold. While short-term fluctuations and temporary recoveries are not uncommon in financial markets, the broader trend for gold suggests a bearish outlook. Traders, investors, and market participants will closely monitor key economic indicators, central bank actions, and any shifts in market sentiment that may impact the future trajectory of gold prices. XAU/USD daily chart Indeed, there are indications of weakening momentum around the $1,900 level for gold, which raises the possibility of a corrective move in the near future. This observation suggests that the selling pressure and downward momentum may be losing steam, potentially paving the way for a temporary rebound or consolidation in the price of gold. However, it's crucial to note that a loss of momentum alone does not guarantee an immediate and decisive reversal in price direction. If there is a significant break below the $1,900 level, it could potentially trigger another downward plunge for gold, especially if momentum gains strength. Such a scenario would reflect a shift in market sentiment, with increased selling pressure overpowering any temporary recovery or consolidation. The extent of the downward move would depend on various factors, including market dynamics, investor sentiment, and the overall economic landscape. Considering the nearly 9% decline in gold prices since early May, a correction would not come as a surprise. Corrections are natural and healthy price movements that often occur after a significant rally or decline. They allow the market to reassess the prevailing trend, absorb new information, and establish a more sustainable price level. Traders, investors, and market participants closely monitoring the gold market will keep a watchful eye on key levels, momentum indicators, and other relevant factors to gauge the potential for a corrective move. BTC/USD daily chart The cryptocurrency Bitcoin has been displaying notable volatility, primarily fluctuating between the range of $30,000 to $31,000. This range-bound movement can be seen as encouraging by the crypto community, especially considering Bitcoin's recent impressive rally. Although Bitcoin has not experienced further significant gains, the fact that it has not retraced a substantial portion of its recent surge suggests that traders and investors maintain an optimistic outlook. They perceive the current phase as a consolidation period within a larger upward movement. It is important to note that the ultimate outcome and direction of Bitcoin's price movement will depend on future news developments and market factors. The hypothesis of this consolidation phase serving as a stepping stone for a potential continuation of the upward trend is speculative and will require time to confirm or refute. However, based on the information available thus far, the current market behavior surrounding Bitcoin is generally viewed as positive. The absence of a significant retracement following a substantial rally can be interpreted as a sign of resilience and underlying strength in the market. It demonstrates that there is ongoing support and demand for Bitcoin, even amidst fluctuations and uncertainty. As with any investment or trading activity involving cryptocurrencies, it is crucial for participants to exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and stay informed about market developments. Cryptocurrency markets are known for their volatility and can be influenced by various factors, including regulatory decisions, adoption trends, and overall market sentiment.
by FOREXN1
14
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JUNE 29, 2023Mixed Trading Day Driven By Market Reactions To Powell's Remarks And Tech Stock Performance Key News: USA - Fed Chair Powell Speaks USA - GDP (QoQ) (Q1) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) During Wednesday's trading session, the Nasdaq saw a moderate rise, driven by the positive performance of large-cap stocks. However, contrasting this upward trend, both the S&P 500 and the Dow ended the day with losses. The decline in these indices was influenced by comments made by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell's statements indicated a strong possibility of further rate hikes and expressed skepticism regarding inflation reaching the central bank's target rate within the foreseeable future, stating that it may not occur "this year or next year." NASDAQ indice daily chart DJI indice daily chart SPX indice daily chart During a European Central Bank forum, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expanded on his earlier remarks, discussing the potential for future rate increases and keeping the possibility of a hike at the upcoming policy meeting in late July on the table. Despite an initial dip into negative territory, investors exhibited a relatively calm reaction to Powell's comments, likely due to positive indications of economic strength. Throughout the trading session, one notable highlight was Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), which achieved a new all-time high and closed at a record high for the second consecutive session. This impressive performance from Apple contributed to the overall gains in the market. Additionally, prominent companies such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) played significant roles in driving the upward momentum observed in the S&P index. The market's response to Powell's statements suggests that investors are maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook, considering both the potential for future rate increases and the underlying strength of the economy. As they assess these factors, market participants closely monitor the upcoming policy meeting and eagerly anticipate further developments that could shape the trajectory of the financial markets. Apple daily chart However, chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), known for its popularity among investors interested in artificial intelligence, experienced a decline of 1.8% and emerged as the primary detractor for the benchmark index. This downward movement was triggered by a report from the Wall Street Journal, indicating that the United States might impose additional restrictions on the export of AI chips to China. The prospect of stricter regulations in this key market created concerns and impacted Nvidia's stock performance. Despite the decline in Nvidia's shares, European markets maintained their positive momentum on the following day, following a break in the six-day losing streak observed on Tuesday. However, gains were tempered by remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, which injected a note of caution into the market sentiment. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continued to weaken, reaching record lows on a trade-weighted basis. This decline in the yen was sustained, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda provided no indication that policymakers were ready to intervene or halt this ongoing depreciation. The weakening yen can have implications for various sectors of the Japanese economy, including exports and international trade. Investors and market participants closely monitor the developments surrounding Nvidia's potential export restrictions and their implications for the global technology sector. USD/JPY daily chart The subdued performance observed in the US market sets the stage for a flat opening in European markets. However, market participants are cautiously optimistic that upcoming data releases, starting with Germany's June inflation figures, could potentially influence a softening of the prevailing hawkish stance. In recent months, there has been a noticeable deceleration in inflationary pressures, with the rate dropping from 7.6% in April to 6.3% in May. While the anticipated June figures are expected to show a modest increase to 6.8%, they are unlikely to alleviate the concerns held by the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding the rapid receding of inflation. The market's focus now turns to the crucial release of Germany's inflation data, as it carries significant implications for the broader Eurozone economy. Analysts and investors alike will closely scrutinize these figures to assess the extent of inflationary pressures within the region and to gain insights into the potential policy responses from the ECB. A continuation of the trend towards lower inflation could reinforce the calls for a more accommodative stance, potentially shifting market expectations away from imminent rate hikes. While the June inflation figures are expected to reflect a slight uptick, it is crucial to note that they are unlikely to significantly alter the prevailing concerns surrounding inflationary dynamics. The ECB remains vigilant in monitoring the situation and is poised to take appropriate action if inflationary pressures fail to stabilize or rise in line with their targets. Beyond Germany's inflation data, market participants will also closely monitor upcoming releases from other Eurozone countries, as they provide additional insights into the broader inflationary trends within the region. The overall goal is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying inflation dynamics and their potential impact on the ECB's monetary policy decisions. GBP/USD daily chart Towards the end of the London session, the British pound experienced pronounced weakness within the G10 space. This decline can be attributed to remarks made by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey during his participation in the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. Bailey's comments regarding UK interest rates contributed to the pound's vulnerability, as he indicated that they are likely to remain elevated for an extended period due to persistent inflationary pressures. The latest data on headline inflation in the UK revealed no change, with a figure of 8.7% for the twelve months leading up to May. Moreover, year-on-year core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, surged to 7.1%. Bailey highlighted this as a specific challenge confronting the UK economy, further dampening market sentiment towards the pound. Concerns arose regarding the potential risks of a recession stemming from excessive policy tightening in response to the elevated inflation levels. Investors responded to Bailey's remarks by reassessing their outlook on the pound, which resulted in notable weakness for the currency. The market began to question the potential consequences of prolonged high interest rates and the potential negative impact on economic growth. The possibility of a recession became a prominent concern, given the perceived risks associated with excessive policy tightening. As market participants absorb Bailey's comments and evaluate the implications for the UK economy, the British pound remains under scrutiny. Traders and analysts closely monitor any further developments related to inflationary pressures and the Bank of England's policy stance. The market sentiment towards the pound will likely be influenced by future economic data releases and any subsequent statements from central bank officials, as they provide insights into the potential course of action and the management of inflationary challenges. EUR/USD daily chart The euro experienced a downturn in sentiment yesterday, primarily driven by a mixed set of data releases. While the Italian Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slower decline than anticipated in May, indicating lower deflationary pressures in the country, consumer price inflation in the eurozone eased more than expected, signifying a slowdown in price growth. These contrasting inflationary signals added to the overall weak sentiment surrounding the euro. Adding to the concerns, the European Central Bank (ECB) reported a deceleration in money supply growth, indicating a moderation in liquidity. This moderation could potentially impact economic activity and limit the availability of funds for businesses and consumers. Furthermore, loans to the private sector expanded at a slower rate than expected, suggesting a potential tightening of credit conditions due to higher interest rates. This tightening of credit could hinder investment and spending, thereby impacting economic growth. Taken together, these indicators pointed towards a more restrictive credit environment and raised concerns about the overall economic outlook. The mixed data and the signals of potential credit tightening weighed on market sentiment towards the euro, contributing to its weaker performance.
by FOREXN1
3
5/31: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES has been in a broad dip-buy regime since October. Today marked the first post-rally pullback, and the ES had a very choppy/corrective session. We are in a confusing post-rally consolidation phase, with a new consolidation range between 4206 and 4243. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down Key Structures The purple triangle is one of the key structures I'm keeping an eye on, with a clear support line extending from May 10 through May 24. Support is currently at 4145. The sizable blue broadening formation is also a key structure to watch. Generally, these patterns tend to "fill out” over time, so when support of this pattern tests, resistance tends to become a magnet. Support Levels First support down is at 4212, followed by 4206 and major support at 4193-89. Further support levels include 4165, 4145, and 4113-4116. Resistance Levels Major resistance levels include 4221-24, 4243, 4273-77 (blue broadening formation resistance), and 4292. Additional resistance exists at 4313 and 4342. Trading Plan Consider going long at 4213, provided it holds above 4212. Initially, aim for 4243, but be cautious chasing in a choppy range. If the 4221-24 level is reclaimed, it would be bullish. However, if 4213 fails, it could signal a bearish case. If we drop below 4213, only consider going short if there's a significant bounce and hours of acceptance at given levels. Wrap Up Following the recent rally, we are now in a period of choppy consolidation. Ideally, we can hold 4213, potentially backtest 4194-89, and continue the basing process by bouncing to 4243. If 4194-89 fails, we may start our journey back to triangle support, which would be a warning for bulls. Remember to stick to the three fundamental principles: do not overtrade, manage trades using a standard procedure, and pay attention to failed breakdowns and breakouts when looking for entry points. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro