TSLA Main Trend 02 2025Logarithm. Time frame 1 month (no need for less). Chart until 2031
🟢At the moment we are running a big triangle that broke through upwards .
🔄 There is a rollback now , to retest the breakout zone. All according to technical analysis, due to the super success of the company and the liquidity of its shares. As for me, the retest should be successful, and then the trend will continue.
🔴But, they can do, like in the last cycle (I specifically highlighted this and showed %), a reset (for some grandiose news) and only then a reversal. If this happens, remember, this is a "temporary phenomenon". Do not play locally in shorts, the main trend is bullish, and it will clearly dominate in the long term.
Fundamental analysis. Competition with BYD.
That's why I'll write a lot of text about how this will greatly affect the price of TSLA shares in the future (real supply/demand) due to trade wars for sales markets.
1️⃣ The only competitor in the world is only the Chinese BYD . Which will become an order of magnitude stronger for TSLA in monetary terms and the popularity of more technologically advanced and affordable cars. Its main advantage, why it can give a cheaper price for a higher quality product, is complete control over the production of the most expensive unit of an electric car - batteries. From the extraction of raw materials for production to the assembly of the battery, without intermediaries. But, it is worth noting that the future super giant BYD will be denied access (as is currently partially the case) to countries where politics is subject to US influence.
This is the so-called "gray zone" where a "trade war" will develop for the sale of products. The one who pays more will win, or their government (USA or China) will use greater leverage. For example, as now, in Brazil. The construction of the BYD plant is closed due to "inhumane working conditions" (and this is in a company with 500 billion in capital) in an important region (Latin America), where "the enemy does not sleep" and plans to begin construction of TSLA-Brazil in 2026. You probably understand what the matter is...
The main “trade battle” will naturally take place for the European market . The European electric car industry will not be competitive with TSLA and BYD (two main flagship companies in the transition of internal combustion engines to electric transport on earth).
It is worth noting that TSLA is now very popular in China. There is a large plant (Shanghai). 40,000 pre-orders for the new Model Y. The Chinese government does not interfere with this. But if unfair play continues in other markets, it is unlikely that TSLA will not be thrown out of China. Competition must be fair. Duties on cars are similar. So far, this is conditionally observed, but there are negative signs from the United States.
2️⃣ The reality of the launch of a new hydrogen engine from Toyota. There are rumors that it is being developed jointly with BMW. This is a completely new level of hydrogen engines. Instead of refueling with hydrogen, distilled water will be poured into the tank. The engine converts it into hydrogen. Serial production will allegedly begin in 2028, when the first hydrogen BMW models will roll off the assembly line.
In some sources, also together with Mercedes-Benz, and even Porsche. Perhaps this is just a news teaser for a potential future buyer, to save the catastrophic decline in sales last year and this year, due to the virtual loss (due to the inability to compete) of the world's largest sales market — China.
It is probably logical to assume that the release of this hydrogen engine to the masses will negatively affect TSLA shares. Provided that TSLA does not follow this fuel trend. My opinion is that they are unlikely to give mass production to something like this. It is like the mass production of electric cars in the 1990s and 2000s, in the era of the reign and monopoly of the hegemonies of oil capital, and as a consequence of internal combustion engines.
3️⃣ Massive power outages around the world. The next point is probably more of a “conspiracy theory”, but I can't help but mention the extremely unlikely scenario of impact on stock prices (a sharp drop).
It is worth noting that the shares of any company that is associated with electricity are extremely “afraid” of a massive power outage and its rise in price, especially accompanied by extremely negative news. If, at least for a week, with a significant transition to electric vehicles (for example, 20-30%) in a large city there are power outages, then this can have an extremely negative impact on the shares of companies associated with the production of electric vehicles and components for them, which is logical. To scare and save and, as a result, "get your way".
4️⃣ Also, a gradual but rapid rise in the price of electricity , as a result of some events or policies, will discourage people from using electric vehicles (they will buy and drive less). This could also have a negative impact on the earnings of these companies like TSLA and BYD, and as a result on their speculative assets.
PS . Of all the points, probably the most important is 1 (real competition and trade war). Then 2, after 2028. Before that, I think TSLA and other companies related to electric cars will pump up a lot.
