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Masterpattern

Bitcoin analysis in the next hoursIn the next few hours, the market is in a phase of uncertainty that could lead to a period of ranging, which is when prices fluctuate within a specific range without following a clear trend. This scenario is quite common on weekend days, when trading volumes tend to be lower due to the closure of many financial institutions. However, it is important to note that during these periods, the market may react unpredictably, especially if "whales", i.e. large investors or traders, decide to take action. There is an expectation that significant movements could occur on Sunday, just before the markets open. But as traders, we must remain cautious and wait for clear signals before making decisions. One of these signals could be the breaking of an upper resistance. If prices manage to overcome this level, it could be an indicator to consider long positions, i.e. aim for prices to rise. On the other hand, if we see a high volume move down towards the previous lows, we may start to consider bringing attention to possible short position openings. However, it is important to emphasize that we should be patient and wait for further confirmation before taking action. A key element to consider is the New York markets opening on Mondays. Often, this trading session can lead to significant movements in prices and volumes. The direction in which the weekly candle closes could have a significant impact on trading decisions and the overall direction of the market.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by AleSaira
The Power of Candlestick Encapsulation in Trading: Utilizing theTrading is a captivating and intricate field that demands a profound understanding of financial markets, investment strategies, and technical analysis. Among the many techniques employed by traders, candlestick encapsulation is one that can prove to be particularly powerful. In this article, we will explore the concept of candlestick encapsulation and how one can harness the 50% of the first candle's length as a potential support or resistance level. What Is Candlestick Encapsulation? Candlestick encapsulation, also known as an "inside bar," is a price pattern that occurs when a subsequent candle develops within the boundaries of the preceding candle. In other words, the price range of the second candle is entirely contained within the range of the first candle. This pattern can appear on any time frame, from daily candles to one-minute candles, and is often used by traders to identify potential turning points in the markets. How to Identify Candlestick Encapsulation? To identify candlestick encapsulation, follow these steps: * Examine the First Candle: Begin by observing the most recent candle on your price chart. This will be the "mother candle."
 * Take a Look at the Next Candle: Next, examine the candle that follows the mother candle. This candle should have a price range that is completely contained within the range of the mother candle.
 * Confirm the Pattern: To confirm candlestick encapsulation, the second candle must close within the range of the mother candle. Using the 50% Level as Support or Resistance Now that we understand what candlestick encapsulation is, let's explore how to leverage the 50% of the first candle's length as a potential support or resistance level. * Calculate the Length of the First Candle: Measure the length of the mother candle from its high to its low.
 * Calculate 50% of the Length: Now, calculate exactly 50% of this length. You can do this by adding the high and low of the mother candle and dividing by two.
 * Draw the Horizontal Line: Plot a horizontal line on your price chart at the level you calculated as 50% of the mother candle's length.
 * Observe Price Behavior: This horizontal line represents a potential support level if prices move below it or a resistance level if prices stay above it. Observe how prices react when they reach this level. Interpretation and Strategy The use of the 50% level of the mother candle's length as support or resistance can be applied in various trading strategies. Here are some important considerations: * Breakout Strategy: If prices break above the 50% level, there may be a potential bullish breakout. In this case, traders may look for buying opportunities.
 * Pullback Strategy: If prices return to the 50% level after a breakout, this could be an opportunity to enter positions in the direction of the prevailing trend.
 * Stop Loss and Take Profit: Traders can use the 50% level as a reference point to place stop-loss or take-profit orders. Conclusion Candlestick encapsulation is a technical analysis technique that can provide valuable insights into potential turning points in financial markets. By using the 50% level of the mother candle's length as support or resistance, traders can add another tool to their trading toolkit for making informed trading decisions. However, it is important to remember that no technique is foolproof, and trading always involves a degree of risk. Therefore, it is advisable to combine this technique with careful risk management and a solid understanding of financial markets.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by AleSaira
BILI right here.... this will be my 5th trade in this series.If you don't know I love BILI both as an anime company and because of its lovely predictable stock price movements.... I am not saying this can't revisit $8 like it did when I got in at $15 however, it glimpsed $8 and came back to profitable in about a week.... and I don't really do option calls for less time than that unless its a short. Bili had decent earnings which I believe they used to stop the bleeding.... Magically right in my target zone. If you haven't been following go look at my previous calls and puts on Bili. I am like a Bili whisperer... lol I put the 20 min chart on here so you can see a fair good amount of price action... The long term is doo doo on this because its been bleeding for over 5 months. This would be catching a falling blade. I have a 7 day right now for teasers to see if it will move or not. if it does start to move I will wait for a pull back and jump in again. Price Target Upper $28-29 range. Might take profits 20s and 25 range and leave runners. p.s. I am not saying just jump in blindly... I am saying this is where It peaks my interest. Trade at your own risk. Don't use money you can't afford to lose. I will leave you with a quote from Cable Guy, " OH! Bili........." by iCantw84it 06.02.2023
NASDAQ:BILILong
by iCantw84it
1
IOT repeating a move from VEEV in 2017 Very BullishSince I have been using chatGPT, I have taken a very bullish approach to all things ai. This stock is one of the leading in its sector. While charting it I noticed it had the same Chart Pattern as VEEV in 2017. Which went from 17 - 50 in 8 months. So far this stock has spent 4 months under institutional control since it hit its low and started Accumulation. Its low is around $8.50 and looks like its following this pattern almost perfectly.... there are some efficiency differences but somehow gets all the moves still in there. Ill post the Chart here for you to see. by iCantw84it 03.30.23
NYSE:IOTLong
by iCantw84it
5
ONON Setting up for a profit run Post I made on 5.13.23 "4 hour i think you have plenty of absorption on the larger time frames too — 05/13/2023 5:55 PM most likely willl stall this at or around 32-34 for earnings or pre launch it which i dont like..." The end result was better it didnt launch and they pushed it down now its prime for a launch as you are force feeding the absorption and priming the launch. Should have $3-6 dollars in leg...I have it set to hit $42 which might be reaching, but do able. My indicators, ESVO is all the lines from different timeframes where price and volume meet in the middle....cradling price is where you want this to be and all together. which creates a synergy between buyers and sellers and the volume between the two is also cohesive at this area. might see some resistance at 28.24 but nothing serious.... $31 as well. NPVR : Square box at price action is a Hi lo channel when the price is inside the box and hugging the top or bottom its basically going in the opposite direction. HILO support line right under @27.27 and bullish candles on the last 4 candles since the spike up with the wick. @ 06/02/23 9:30am Volume profile sellectable session anchor: Whats really nice about this is that no matter what anchor you use... HI / low volume, highest volume, week, session, day, earnings, etc..... every single one is either right under the current price or as low as $27 so a significant amount of support under it.
NYSE:ONONLong
by iCantw84it
PAA finally made its move into profit runPAA finally broke out into its profit phase....but what does that mean from here. Honestly, I think we have another Buyers climax coming before we need to worry about a major pull back or consolidation at this level. All the seizure induced lines you see that arent channel lines are ESVO lines. This is where price and volume meet in the middle. So wtf does that mean w8? *clears throat* You're right, no need to be rude. (voices... trying to keep them at bay) So what that means is where you see the lines consolidating at is where Price and Volume were sympatico or saw eye to eye. In other words its where Bears and bulls were kind of hanging out and having coffee and a smoke, or beer and some medicinal weed depending on what kind of bear or bull you are. I don't judge. Anyways price and volume kind of moves harmonically, like the first week of a Honeymoon, before you set the real you out on display for life. *clears throat* Yes, Yes I hear you. I digress. So price moves fluidly as volume increases price moves with it equally... Bears sell price drops almost equally in size....Bulls by price moves equally to the amount of volume coming in. This can be areas where Huge swings in the market can happen.... Breaking out of channels, mark up phases or mark down phases where 3 cycles of price movement in any one direction tend to start from these areas. So when the ESVO..... *clears throat* ....Seizure induced lines.... are spread out they are basically saying that there are different time frames of traders each with their own areas of harmonious areas of price to volume balances that will create a disruption to price movement as the two time frames find a common ground. Depending on how strong this group of traders is to the next and how deep in magnitude it is compared to the other will determine if: A. they are meet with open hands and smiling faces ready to skip through fields of flowers hand in hand into the sun while..... *clears throat* You never let me have any fun.... or B. Slam right into it at 70MPH across heavy 6pm traffic without any respect to the stop light that has been on for a good 10 seconds..... I am sure you can guess what happens on B. Price halts, spins, slides in the opposite direction, possibly gets hit by another vehicle coming from a different direction, maybe 2, 3,4,5 other vehicles all from different directions.....I'm sure you are invisioning one of those multi level clover shaped turn abouts that meet a main cross road......but you get the idea... it can be the death of a move or it could send this thing into outerspace.... Normally though its more B then A. So all of that just to say it can stop moving up.... Calm down! I am getting there. Lets digress a few steps back here..... Back to when the Equilibrium Singularity Volume Oscillators lines are together.... now you know why I call it ESVO. Believe it or not ChatGPT helped me code this and name it after a few back and forth debates on .... *clears throat* Jesus! ok When the lines are together and price makes a move from underneath them to up above. It needs to find support on these lines. If the lines are all together its like a spring board and just bounces. So a temp pull back to this area before moving on. If the lines are spread apart its like a spiders web it will still bounce out if its strong enough but there will be some energy spent on finding support. It might fall through several layers of the lines before finding the one that can support it. Think of a Jet on a Aircraft Carrier with its net out as a jet lands and hits the end of the landing zone. Sketchy!!! But if Price action has already popped the ribbon (this is what I call it in this move because it turns inside out as price goes up and down ) and failed to stay on top once, the second time is the one that will make it 90% of the time....I haven't truly measured this but I have been using this for 3 months now and I have found this to be pretty accurate. I will devote some time to verify the actual number. If you follow me and have looked at my last 10 trades you would probably agree with me. Now the last thing out side of failing is price can lose enough momentum when coming down to find support that the profit run turns into what looks like consolidation at this level because of the lines being spread apart and it not having enough momentum to break out of them again... which tends to mute the move and eventually causing it to drop to find another level of support with stronger hands to carry it up. There are endless things I use the ESVO for but for this trade I will stop at that. Where does this meet how I trade outside of this indicator? I am a very technical outside the box trader that has spent 2 years teaching myself how to trade without any influences from the outside world. I made my own rule set for what I saw in the market. Which is what I call "the Curve" I have acquired savant syndrome which was originally diagnosed as have gaining the talent of Art after a traumatic brain injury. 1 in 227k trauma cases on the left upper back side of the head has a chance of this happening. I couldn't paint or draw a face to save my life. After the wreck I was instantly able to paint near realism. Odd but true. What I have found is that I see and learn things in a odd way visually able to gain knowledge or insight into things I have no idea about instantly. When I looked at the market 15 years ago, I couldn't trade a demo account to be positive if my life depended on it. When I looked at it for the first time after my wreck I saw what I call the curve. Which I instantly said that is the pattern of institutional trading. I didnn't even know what that meant when I said it. I actually had to look it up. That's what dragged me into the market. I call it divine intervention. -emotional side Or Is it a different parallel version of myself that already trades and this part of my brain no one has access to unlocks the bridge to the knowledge another version of me already has? -Logical side of me Either way I see things differently now. again I digress... After teaching myself for 12-14 hrs a day for two years (because I became a shut in after my wreck as I didn't have insurance to help at the time -inbetween jobs just moved to new bigger city)- and had no one to say hey you should go see this or go talk to this person. or hey w8 you have a few screws loose.... So I painted all hours of the day and night and traded or charted the market the rest. They call this a growth phase. Where you take in and focus on yourself and grow at an accelerated state. anyways....After coming up with my own rule set I wanted to see who trades like me so I can grow and adapt to what is probably a lot more technical than my visual style of trading. I found wyckoff method of trading. The Curve fit prefectly in this. Now I had a technical way to explain how I traded visually. I thought I was invincible until I blew $4k on a futures acct. BTW if you have never blown an account either you are like the chosen one who shall dominate the market and take over the world......or you just haven't gotten there yet in your path. But I feel this is needed to 1. create a sense of gravity and bring your ego back in check. 2. to identify your Greed and the need to gain control of it. I didn't know that I had this monster....because I was a narcistic prick before my wreck and well yeah Greed was a driving force in my success before my wreck. So i needed to numb my emotions, which I am driven by emotions or was.... Before I would make decisions off my passion and emotions. True sith for real! However, like everything else the Universe will find balance. Now when i make a trade I try to remain very logical about everything and look for reasons why it wont work on several timelines so I can at least anticipate what will and can happen. I know I went on a tangent there but I feel its important that if you like the way I trade or find any of it intriguing that you understand where I come from , how I got here, what is going on in my head, why I say what I say or see what I see. I love to chart, so please ask me to chart something. A chart is a chart, so it doesn't matter what you trade I can chart it. Back to how the ESVO works with how I trade on just this kind of move where price moves above the ribbon. This is where the Mark up phase starts when the lines are tight together and price moves above it. Its also the part of the Master Pattern (another wyckoff spin off which is heavily used in forex...ewww) in the master pattern this is where price has oscillated and expanded away from the control box(called expansion arms) and then solidified on a trend (called trend phase) so basically two control boxes are made high and low and price bounces and respects both boxes until it breaks out. This is the mark up phase or mark down phase in wyckoff. This can happen on every time frame. So that's why I start large on something at least a weekly if not longer. But then go backwards down to a 15 min to find confluence on same move happening before I make my trade. On this trade it was confluent all the way back no confusion. The lower time frames are probably over bought at this point on the RSI and Stochs. Which is normal and you will see them pull back to find support so that the Larger time frames don't have too. Larger time frames can have large moving candles that just keep going up before they break into consolidation....meanwhile all the timeframes below it are accumulating and re accumulating, distributing and redistributing. Which is another way I trade. I have always been fascinated with the fractal part of the market. I have been fortunate to witness several massive moves in futures that spanned 3-5 days where every time frame was on the exact same move and then almost pauses...until the last timeframe also the smallest catches up and passes the other timeframes and starts leading the move. Being followed by each time frame going from smallest to largest in order. Each time a time frame would cross this threshold a surge of pressure in the direction of the move would hit and price would jump forward. In my situations they were shorts and price would jump down .05 , .10 , .25, .50, 1.00 , 1.35, 2.25 so on and so forth... it was amazing and scary at the same time. The reason I line up the higher to the lower is because the higher can be saying Bullish but the lower could be saying hey I have too much supply and need to absorb this before I can go up. Or I need to find support before I am confident I can go up. So instead of saying hey jump in on this and making you wait a week.... which has happened recently...I added this in to help alleviate that. *clears throat* I hear you! Yes I know that was long, shut your face! I am the one in control here...... i hope if you find any of this amusing and/or intriguing pls follow and like... Most of all boost ( pssst...... hey its free, trust me.) *Clears throat* Sorry ignore him. Boost helps others find me and pushes this back out there each time... I can make videos of trades but I won't do that unless its requested or I can get enough boosts to my ideas that deems someone is actually watching. Thanks for taking the time, sorry so long. by iCantw84it 05.19.23
NASDAQ:PAALong
by iCantw84it
[Viking Pattern] Whales' Favorite Trap#Viking #Whipsaw #bulltrap #beartrap Recent financial market seems to be distinctively perplexing and bizarre, often leaving us traders in a state of confusion. Ultimately, our job as traders is to structure market fluctuations, which occur with certain probabilities, into trends and Price Actions based on time and price. The so-called scam moves and abnormal trends that have been frequently observed recently also tend to have patterns and can be somewhat formalized. Today, I would like to introduce a pattern that I have deducted and modeled based on insights of recent data. Those of you who have been trading a lot recently will probably be quite familiar. Interpreted from the perspective of Wyckoff Theory and the Master Pattern, this model ultimately intends to derive Price Action by distinguishing Accumulation and Distribution Phases in terms of horizontal Volume Profile. To systematize this pattern, various technical elements such as LVP (Low Volume Peak), HVP (High Volume Peak), Fibonacci Extension & Projection, Time Fibonacci Extension, trend lines, and parallel channels were utilized. Let me briefly explain features of the periodic phases that compose this model. 1. First and foremost, a significant volume structure forms in the horizontal level as various patterns including triangles (Ascending, Descending, Symmetric triangles, and Wedge, etc.), parallel channels, and diamonds, etc. It would consist of upper and lower bounds derived as either horizontal line (LVP) or sloped line (Trend line). Make sure to clearly mark these lines to later spot the meaningful breakout. 2. A strong breakout through upper or lower LVP (horizontal line) will take place, leaving the volume structure as consolidation zone or sideway channel above or below. Now the market has entered a distribution phase where the direction of a market trend clearly shows. We can target this level with Fibonacci Projection and Extension tools, but I find it quite risky entering against the trend, which would be a counter-trend strategy. In this study, the extension and projection levels utilized are 1, 1.13, 1.272, 1.414, and 1.618. 3. The impulsive momentum, whether bullish or bearish, eventually loses strength at some point forming a significant high or low. After, a new volume structure is generated again at a different level above or below the first structure. If this new structure shapes as relatively rounded or forms potential trend-reversal pattern, such as Cup with Handle, Adam and Eve, or Head and Shoulders, the probability of Viking pattern increases. Typically, the range of the second volume structure tends to be shorter than the first structure both vertically(pricewise) and horizontally(timewise). 4. Another breakout of the second consolidation, with the direction towards the first volume structure appears. According to the textbook, the confluence area where the LVP (which has been SR Flipped) and the trendline of the first volume structure overlap, is most likely to show retest support or rejection. However, if the price breaks through this very spot, which is defined as a POR (Point of Recognition) in this theory, a further impulsive trend is highly likely to follow. The essential part of this model is to spot potential PORs and apply trading setups using this very price momentum. 5. Fibonacci time zone extension tool were applied based on the periodic range of the first volume structure. Most of the time, the horizontal range of the first structure is longer than the length starting from the first breakout to the POR (Second breakout). In other words, if the second volume structure extends the previous one, the probability of occurrence decreases. The periodic extension levels used for targeting POR in this model are 1.13, 1.272, 1.414, 1.618, and 1.818. Here are some examples from various commodities and timeframes. - Bitcoin - Tesla - Microsoft - DXY (US Dollar Index) - ECOPRO 4hr Further studies and reviews of this model are to be updated later. Your subscription, comments and likes are huge motivation for me. Thank you.
Education
by Tommy_Trader
1
ENPH has been great, lets squeeze some more trades out of itENPH has been very busy dropping from $320 to 190ish. Called the bounce last week before the weekend from $210 to 187-190s. Obviously in a downward trend but man this thing can move. If you didn't know you can see one of the institutionals' dumped their shares over the last couple months. Check the chart at the bottom see the ramp up of volume. That's the supply taking on inventory at an over excessive rate. which starts the downward plunge from the $320s. Now as it approaches phase C (the part of the trade where smart money decides to pick this back up or let it go) At this price it might need to dump more to be more attractive. I used ChatGPT to make my own indicators and the ESVO is a way of looking at price and volume normalized. This opened my eyes to some things happening on the chart, I Never noticed before. But you can actually see the profits being taken, stop losses being hit, fomo kick in... watch supply and demand spike while the price action is unfolding. Using Higher and lower time frames you can get great idea of whats happening in the market. when demand is spiking or when supply is oversaturated. Key areas where stop losses are being broke you get a massive spike on the chart with the indicator, which sheds light on what you need to focus on at that moment. If its spiking 5x larger than normal, it means shares are being bought and sold at a rate extremely larger than normal. Meaning, if price action is bullish, and this happens: 1. if Price action continues to move up at a 45 degree angle durring this surge of shares, your stock is very bullish and its about to pop once it clears out all the shares. 2. If price action starts to look weak, it will take a dip and do a mini re-accumulation depending on time frame it could be 5-17 candles. 3. if Price action was already weak and it spikes (basically consolidating or long range consolidation) Price will most likely go right into distribution mode and drop to the next control box or node. Another way to use this is just like you would an EMA, if price crosses it, it will most likely be very aggressive as it goes across and continue or pull back to bounce off the ESVO before continuing its new trend. When the lines are flat it means everything is avg or balanced which doesn't happen very often. Its not uncommon for Price to have to attempt to cross one of these three times before succeeding. If it fails while trying to cross it will most likely pull back and try with more volume. At this point pay attention to if the volume continues or dies off. Sometimes Crossing is the catalyst that sends it moving higher or lower. A lot of the time your highest area of volume and price is where these lines will oscillate or go flat across. There is literally an indefinite amount of ways you can use the ESVO. I set one to a certain setting and based on what price action is doing around the ESVO I can wait for an indecision and know its going up or down on higher time frames. Which is great for finding trade setups. Anyways, let me know if you have any questions. If any of these ideas peak your interest pls like/ follow/ sub/ and most of all pls Boost so we can all enjoy watching it prove me right or wrong. Thanks again. by iCantw84it 03.30.23
NASDAQ:ENPHShort
by iCantw84it
11
LI Auto Looking very clean and Bullish Loving these levelsWas actually typing in bili and ended up pulling up this chart. As soon as it came up the chart grabbed my attention. So i had to chart it and Im actually entering a position on a call. everything looks bullish about this. the lines are so clean on it. and the set up with the ESVO looks juicy. last time I said that SQ went up $9 in 3 days. If you like this check out ENPH, BiLI, IOT. Traded Apple earlier this week for a quick $3 right at open. Called both ENPH and Apples pull back to the exact zones and currently in Bili and about to be LI. Possibly getting in IOT after one of those. and ENPH once its more clear if institutional is picking it back up or not. DM me for any request or questions. by iCantw84it 03.30.23
NASDAQ:LILong
by iCantw84it
BILI is exhausting demand needs re-accumulation to move higherBili bili is one of my fav stocks to trade. Paired with my love for anime, its a great stock. I have traded it everytime it hit $16 and sold it everytime at $28. I made a pact a long time ago that without question if the stock hits $16 buy it... and if it hit $28 sell it. I want more plays so I am adding more in depth analysis and stalking this thing now. I noticed it bounces around in the 20s when it gets up here. It normally hits the upper 20s one last time before coming down. However, based on its current move. the candles are showing this move is exhausted and demand is spent. There is no conviction in the candles and with out a ton of volume its not able to get over this area between $25-26. I'm in on some puts with tight stop losses as everything says it wants to go but the candles say otherwise. by iCantw84it 03.30.23
NASDAQ:BILIShort
by iCantw84it
ENPH testing some weird ideas while using ChatGPTim using some weird things here that I saw when making an indicator and am putting it to test. the path is drawn so im saying the price should oscilate between the paths then when it hits the green area it should make a move back to the last high. find resistance there. re-accumulate and then try and gather up more shares to take that hi. the move is cooked by the red line if not the one in the middle. the consolidation phase should be done by the green and start the green path. not financial advice just a game i like to play.... buy under $183.50 sell anything 191 before the green path....sell anything before $200 after. out by mar 24 to be safe....mar27th if continuation which would be around $204 if lucky..... of course if any of this intrigues you lets hit the boost button so we can all track it, like and follow. by iCantw84it 03.19.2023
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by iCantw84it
[EW] All of the possible Scenarios for Bitcoin!#BTCUSDT #Daily #ElliottWave #Tommy - Hello dear traders from all over the world! It’s Tommy. It’s been quite a while since I uploaded any contents on EN server. Due to countless issues in Crypto industry as well as the macroeconomic status concerning us about inflation and recession at the same time, BTC recently broke previous low around 17k making a new significant low around 15.4k. Now is the time for us to update our TA perspectives on BTC by deriving new supports, resistances, top, bottom and target prices. Let us look at some possible future scenarios in terms of Elliott Wave Theory. - My first scenario indicates that the high(65k) born on April 2021 is the end of an impulsive cycle, corrective waves right after being the expanded flat. This then implies that the historical high at 69k is the end of flat wave B which exceeds previous wave 5 within an impulsive wave. We know that the flat corrective structure follows 3-3-5 zigzag rather than 5-3-5. Accordingly, the whole bearish wave structure was to be considered as red wave C composed of 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. - Scenario A1 says that the downward impulsive green wave 5 within red wave C is ongoing right now. In this case, the current structure is most likely the downward impulsive black wave 3 or upward corrective black wave 4. Ending diagonal green wave 5 is also to be on the list, especially if either the black upward wave 4 retraces wave 3 deeper than expected or black downward wave 3 has already ended around 15k. Some of the considerable supports and resistances in this scenario are 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k, and 17.7k~18.5k. This scenario becomes invalid if BTC breaks above 21.5k. - Black wave B or C of upward corrective green wave 4 of red wave C is where we are right now according to scenario A2. This case expects BTC to break the downward channel above followed by decent bullish trend and then another strong rejection making a notable swing low after. Black wave 2 has also been regarded as some kind of flat structure. This very wave counting is off the list if BTC breaks above 33k, the end of green wave 1 after escaping the black parallel channel. If I were to be a bit more bullish, I can target the end of green wave 4 at 22.9k~23.7k and 27.4k~28.2k based on some technical components such as widening pattern(disjoint channel), 0.382 retracement level of downward cycle, and the horizontal volume profile, etc. - Rather than expanded flat described as above, regular correction with 5-3-5 zigzag was chosen on scenario B. I believe this very wave counting is so far the most popular one among the Elliott Wave traders globally. This case refers that the end of impulsive cycle has been completed at the historical high at 69k which then would be the end of impulsive red wave 5. Therefore 5-3-5 zigzag was implied on this whole falling wave structure starting from 69k. Well, then we are currently on green wave 4 or 5 within red wave C. - Similar to A1, B1 also regarded 25k high formed on August 2022 as the end of upward correction considering the falling wave structure right after as impulsive green wave 5. The chart below described the latest bearish waves as the black wave 3 within green wave 5 whether the 18k low is end of black wave 1 or running flat black wave B. The possibility of ending diagonal green wave 5 as well as the target prices (supports and resistances) are pretty much the same as A1’s. Retracing more than 21.5k that are thought to be the beginning of black wave 3, contradicts this scenario’s reliability. - B2 is also quite the same as A2 but the degrees of waves are different. This scenario implies flat correction as well and black wave C can be targeted at 22.9k~23.7k (Running flat) and 27.4k~28.2k (Expanded flat). Frankly, considering the proportion, this counting might be a little off the track when second target is reached. - From here, double three XWY corrective structure has been adapted on the falling wave that starts at the historical high. The dead cat bounce looking alike wave from 33k to 48k is then regarded as a wave failure, X. After the red wave X, the whole parts of the falling wave then fit into ABC 5-3-5, not the 12345 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. I could say this scenario is far most the bullish comparing to A and B. - Starting from C1, this case considers the horizontal volumes formed around 30k as green wave B dividing this very wave into ABC 5-3-5 zigzag. Weighting more on the flow that downward green wave C is starting from 25k high and splitting inner wave as 5-3-5-3-5, this scenario expects that the bears are almost finished and even though BTC shows another swing low in the future, it’s not going to be that bad. The worst specific case within this scenario would be making a final bottom at 13.4k~14.1k before bullish phase takes in place. - C2 is just a tiny bit less bullish than C1, where downward ending diagonal green wave C with a huge black wave 1 is considered. It surely is too early to expect ending diagonal green wave 5 currently, but monitoring major highs and lows to keep track on the new significant trendlines that are to be appeared seems integral. The worst possible case would be BTC reaching the 1:1 projection level of green wave A and B, which is around 10.8k~11.8k. - Last but not least, triple double three WXYXZ correction counting has been conducted in this scenario since those of some impatient traders are starting to address another wave failure X. This wave counting describes another wave X after WXY thus regarding another ABC 5-3-5 zigzag starting from 25k high. - According to D1, 22.8k high is a starting point of a downward impulsive green wave C interpreted as 5-3-5-3-5. Honestly, assuming the downward black impulsive wave cycle started much later is not my number one scenario. Anyhow, the target price ranges of red wave Z are around 13.4k~14.1k and 10.8k~11.8k. - Also considering WYXYZ correction, D2 implies that the green wave b within red wave C is taking place right now. Similarly, green wave B then can be regarded as either expanded or running flat which then can target 17.7k~18.5k and 22.9k~23.7k. Just like A2 and B2, this scenario also expects bulls to come in shorter term before another huge drop in longer term. (Summary) Supports: 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k. 7.4k~8.4k Resistances: 17.7k~18.5k, 22.9k~23.7k, 27.4k~28.2k Tops(Prices that bulls should break above): 22.8k, 25k , 29k
by Tommy_Trader
2
Accumulation Cycle Continues 🔁♻This pattern is so important to understanding how institutions accumulate and take profits in this market. This pattern isn't a completely unique framework to EURUSD, but it's part of this market's DNA. Finding these patterns requires linear regression (which works best with high resolution data; lower time frames), to extrapolate a central channel which will act as support and resistance as price dances around it during the accumulation phase of the market. These patterns can appear as week long ranges or just a few hours for a pull back. Either way, these patterns are a crucial tool to staying on the right side of the market during breakouts. Taking a counter intuitive approach to the market is the only way to profit long term. When price is below the channel, I'm looking for long set ups, and vice versa for short setups. Right now, institutions are taking profit from Tuesday's massive drop, while also accumulating inventory to sell to buyers to fuel the next big short. The regression confirms this activity, because you can clearly see price creeping up. I'm anticipating that price will break above the key resistance level (key framework; kf) and institutions will then short retail traders' long positions and drive price back down to new lows where this cycle will start yet again. This pattern confirms institutional presence in the market. When you don't see it you're in a trap, and you should stay out of the market until it reappears. That's EURUSD in a nutshell. Best market there is, hands down!
Education
by NeoDaNomad
This is getting old!I'm genuinely tired of seeing this pattern in the market, then watching the feed and seeing all the poor traders getting sucked into this same cycle. It's not even fun anymore. Stop giving up your money so easily, please. If you're losing money today, please just look over my last couple posts and start trying to find this pattern on your own. literally every time we see a flat range like the one in the photo, this is how it ends. You can't afford to keep falling in the same trap over and over and over again. There's trillions of dollars on this market for all of us. There's no reason you need to keep losing!
Education
by NeoDaNomad
An Idiot's Guide to EURUSD: 5 Steps to Success 💲💲💲Synopsis If you trade Forex then you know the weekends are the best time to analyse the market. Everybody likes to talk about how volatile EURUSD is, but what they don't tell you is that the market is ranging a good 80%-90% of the time; good deals do NOT last long. In fact, half of a days price movement can play out in 15-45 minutes, It's that fast. The best entries are usually snatched up in a matter of minutes, meaning that slow momentum oscillators and lagging trend following indicators don't perform well in these conditions. EURUSD in my opinion trades a lot like CL (crude WTI), where trading decisions need to be made while volatility is low to mitigate risk. Translation: if you can't win in a range, you're going to blow your account in this market, trust me. I see so many people on here setting targets 2-3 times the daily atr with the expectation that they'll be paid by the end of the day or the next day. Don't do that, please. It's not a sprint, it's a marathon. Long term gains depend on practical consistent returns, not 10:1 RRs. It's actually a lot more realistic to take ZERO to two 20-40 pip trades per day. Over the course of a week it adds up. The chart: This week we came off of a really strong bullish surge away from parity, and the market then did what it does best, range. And the way that prices are moving right now is just classic EURUSD, I love it...I get so nostalgic, because ranges like these are how I learned to trade; the way that the market recycles over and over makes it so fun to trade, it never gets stale. Since it's the weekend and the markets are closed, I wanted to take this opportunity to share with anyone who might be wondering what it's like to day trade this market. How to trade ranges: Step 1: Find your levels... The easiest way is to map out support and resistance zones. On the chart, I use my own variation of the Williams fractals indicator (I call them Neo fractals 😎) for every prominent swing high or swing low, the indicator draws a horizontal ray from the highest, lowest close and projects it out into the future. You can see the spots where lines start stacking up in a certain price range act as stronger support or resistance than the areas with only one dotted line. It only takes about 5-10 minutes per day to do this by hand though, so an indicator definitely isn't necessary. It's really important to be able to eyeball pivot points yourself anyways. Step 2: Determine market phase... After you've mapped everything out, it becomes a lot clearer what's happening in the market, and if the market is ranging or trending. If the market's ranging, you will see far more s/r lines on your chart especially once you start seeing s/r lines stacking up close to one another. A clear giveaway that the market is ranging is when price makes strong moves in one direction, only to return back from where it came, later in the day. Once you've determined what phase of the market you're even closer to spotting high quality trades. Step 3: The next step is to find areas of value... In general you want to find the areas within the range which provide the most exclusive prices, And steer away from price ranges that hold 80-90% of the activity on the cart. Being 5-10 pips in profit before a big move will completely change the way you feel about a trade when it starts to go against you (plenty winning trades will go against you, especially if you're trading reversals). On the chart you can see that the supply and demand zones only produced 2-4 trades this week, but all of them were for over 50 pips. These aren't the only trades you can take, but they're definitely the highest RR trades, you can get in a ranging market. Step 4: What for confirmation... There are so many ways to confirm a move, but my favorite for this market is a phenomena that I like to call a spike. (There's probably an actual name for it, but I'm self taught so I just make stuff up as I go 😅) Find a hammer or star candle on a higher chart like the daily or 4hr and it look at that time period again on a lower timeframe, what you'll see is that the hammer or star is actually just a large price movement in one direction followed by an equally large movement in the other direction. What might appear as a spike on a lower timeframe will appear as a hammer or star on a higher time frame, and the larger and longer the chart pattern takes to complete, the larger and longer the move will be in the opposite direction. These are the Rolls Royce of signals. When you realize that a head and shoulders pattern is really just a series of spikes, it will completely change the way that you trade. In my experience, trading price spikes alone out performs every other chart pattern there is, because most candlestick and chart patterns are made up of a series of spikes anyways. Most consolidation periods end in a large spike followed by a 1-200 pip surge in the opposite direction. They appear most often on higher timeframes as hammers and stars, or large engulfment. but on the lower time frames you can watch these things play out over 5 ,10 or even 100 periods sometimes. The key is to have very strict rules for what you consider a spike to be, how many pips? What kind of ratio are you looking for? is it happening in an area of value? etc. Step 5: The range leads to the trend... The reason that trend following strategies under perform in this market is because strong trends don't last long on EU AND getting good value is insanely competitive. The key is to spot these trends early, you have to be looking when nobody else is looking. That means waking up earlier than everyone else and having a plan in place before the move happens...Not seeing a big candle and just hopping in. I try to have a daily strategy in place before the Asian session ends, that way, I''m ready for London and NY. I live in the US, so that means I'm waking up everyday around midnight to 1 in the morning. But most of the time, if my trade starts well, I go back to bed and check back in around 7. If you want to trade EURUSD, that's what it takes though. There might have to be lifestyle changes that you have to make (especially for North and South American traders) in order to really commit yourself to this market and give your trading it the attention that it needs.
Education
by NeoDaNomad
[EURGBP] Mid-term trading strategies#Forex #EURGBP #Daily #Midterm - Here’s EURGBP 1D chart. A lot of FX pairs have shown some high difficulty with frequent moves that are quite unpredictable. - As can be observed from the chart, there are a lot of noises, stop huntings, bull/bear traps, whipsaws, and long candle tails. - Consequently, such strategies with wider risk/reward ranges on higher timeframes are necessary in this type of market. - EURGBP showed a bear trap after breaking bottom of the green channel, re-entering into the channel again. - At the same time, it broke the black channel above and is currently testing resistance of the blue trendline and thus I will be bullish for a while right after it successfully breaks the blue trendline. - The resistances I am considering are 0.885~0.888 and 0.900~0.903 and trading setups can be designed as shown in the chart. - In shorter term, I am considering 0.848~0.851 significantly as a short-term bottom which is bottom of the green channel. If this area fails supporting, I would be bearish for a while. - A decent area to enter long is around the retest area of the black channel currently located at 0.836~0.839 and such trading setups can be implemented.
by Tommy_Trader
[Apple] Can you break the top of the wedge?#AAPL #NASDAQ #1D - Here’s Apple daily chart. Compared to other stocks within NASDAQ, the correction of Apple is not that much fearful, YET. - After breaking bottom of the black channel and blue trendline, it dropped about 14% more and at the same time formed a green falling wedge. - I would definitely be bullish in short-term if Apple breaks top of the wedge and for those looking for breakout entry, keep an eye on this falling wedge. - If it successfully breaks above, a well-designed trading setup can be secured targeting my first resistance area around $147~$149 which is the confluence zone of 0.382 retracement level and POC of previous HVP. - Another potential resistance that I am considering is at the retest area of the blue trendline located around $155~$157. - If the market becomes more bearish, in other word if Apple gets rejected by the top of the wedge once more and makes a LL, I am expecting decent price actions at $123~$125 and $117~$119. - These supports have been deducted by various technical elements drawn in the chart such as wedge bottom, trendlines, Log-trendline, previous VP areas(Orderblocks), Fibonacci projection levels, and retracement levels, etc.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Tommy_Trader
[S&P500, NASDAQ, and BTC] Can't you all three be bullish please?Hello everyone. Today we’ve prepared a comparative technical analysis for S&P500, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin in macroscopic perspective by observing daily and weekly charts. Line charts for future commodities from CME were used which are ES1, NQ1!, and BTC1!. Also, in order to observe possible trend reversal signal, RSI indicator with default length of 14 was referred with. Let’s start with daily charts. S&P500 made a significant high at January 3rd while NASDAQ and Bitcoin made highs about two months earlier: at November 19th and 9th respectively. Let’s have a look at the markets after forming historical highs. S&P500 bounced up to 0.618~0.786 retracement level of the corrective wave structure and then dropped reaching 1.414~1.618 projection levels. Similarly, NASDAQ retraced up to 0.618 level of the correction and then dropped reaching 1.13~1.272 projection levels. In contrast, Bitcoin was much more bearish only retracing about 0.382 level and then continue to drop quite steeply reaching 0.786~0.886 projection levels. RSI indicators are also showing some different aspects for Bitcoin, compared to other indices. Both the prices of S&P500 and NASDAQ showed LL(Lower Low) while RSI of these showed HL(Higher Low) during 1/27~6/16 and thus indicating bullish divergence signals On the other hand, both the price and RSI showed LL for Bitcoin which means divergence is no longer valid. US indices generally showed decent amount of bullish rallies in between corrective waves time to time and bullish divergences appeared as well so some technical dead cat bounce or PRZ(Potential reversal zone) can be expected. However, wave structure for Bitcoin seems to be a bit more bearish due to smaller upward retracements, steeper falling waves, and absence of bullish divergence signal. Let’s then look at weakly charts which can be interpreted as more macroscopic views. I have selected the lows formed right after COVID19 shock for all these three. As can be observed, Bitcoin went through deeper retracement for about three months (4/12~7/12) throughout the bullish rally towards the historical high. After, even though Bitcoin made a swing high, this dip in the middle affected RSI to be cooled down a little bit pulling RSI down. Comparing retracement levels of each impulsive waves starting from the COVID19 for these three, 0.382~0.5, 0.5~0.618, and 0.707~0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels have been reached for S&P500, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin respectively. Bitcoin clearly has shown deeper retracement than the US Indices. Moreover, short-term bullish divergences can be observed on US Indices and mid-term bullish divergences on both NASDAQ and Bitcoin. Weekly charts indicates some signals of possible short-term dead cat bounces for US Indices and some of possible mid-term bounces for NASDAQ and Bitcoin. Personally, I think S&P500 might be a little bearish in mid-term perspective than other two.
CME:BTC1!
by Tommy_Trader
What makes trading different from gambling? [No Trading Zone]#Notradingzone #Tocademy #PrincipleTrading #Confluence Hello traders from all over the world. Observing thousands of retail traders during my lessons, lectures, and consulting, I realized that a lot of novice traders in contemporary market have some bad trading habits. Especially if you are a daily trader or scalper who usually take small and many short-term trades, please pay attention! Someday in the future, hopefully, you will eventually realize that the best and most ideal position in the world is to take neutral position. What I mean here doesn't imply that you should not trade at all and rest the whole time. After entering this world of trading, within the process of becoming a mature trader there is a time when you realize the power of the TA(Technical Analysis). Once you start to practically utilize what you have studied and even see how the numbers on your account grow, you literally become mesmerized. This magical thing called ‘Trading’ would feel like the ONE you have been searching for the whole life. I know, calm down! It feels great when the price reacts to the lines and indicators you have drawn and put on the chart by yourself. In this particular stage, I see many traders sit in front of the monitors or watch their smartphones all day long, being addicted to trading. Well, here’s a truth that I deducted through years of my trading career and the data that I have researched; addictive traders hardly become successfully. Always remember that our ultimate purpose of trading is to solely make money, not just for fun. Of course, making money would be fun but for some of you, the priorities of these two are switched. Before you even notice, you might find yourself gambling rather than trading. Now put your hands down, close your eyes, and think for a minute. Are you anxious when you are not in a position? Do you frequently regret that you closed your position too early? Do you become angry when you miss big long or short? Are you so urgent to recover your loss as soon as possible? Does trading disturb your primary work? (Hard to focus both, isn’t it?) Does trading masses up your lifestyle and relationship with people? If you replied ‘Yes’ to majority of the questions, please cancel all of the pending orders right now, turn off the chart, get some rest, and forget about trading just for a while. I understand more than anyone that you are full of desire to chase all these micro trends or minor waves in 1 minute chart. Especially those who are trying to recover all the losses you made this week ASAP, before you encounter a bigger loss, trust me, take some time, and cool your head. I am sorry to say but you might be more of a gambler than a trader right now. Sure, there would be few that still do fine with all those conditions but if you eventually keep ending up bad due to excessive entries or lose entire seed at one cue after series of consecutive wins, your addiction might be interfering your judgment. Irrational trading decisions are the biggest risk that human traders have to face and restraining our emotions during trading is integral. (Please click the image/link below for details) As the image below indicates, since we humans cannot perfectly control our emotions every single day, the total number of trades and the net performance are not always proportional in a short-term period. In other words, spotting thousands of entries in a single day does not always lead to daily accumulative profit. Not only you pay high transaction fees, but your physical and mental exhaustion can lower your concentration seducing your irrationalized perceptions to break your trading principles. Accordingly, the more excessive amount of time spent looking into the chart, the more likely our logical sense becomes numb and vague which can easily cause FUD and FOMO. Researches have shown that the relationship between the entry rates and the performance (per certain period of time) of retail traders is averaged out as a curved shape with a local maximum coordinate. This peak point implies the ideal amount of profit and entries of a trader. It would be different for each trader depending on their preferences, capabilities, and other circumstances. For instance, 3~4 entries and $10,000 profit per day might be ideal set or oriented goals for some traders, while 10~15 entries and $100 profit per day might be those for other traders. Hence it is important for us to figure out each of our own boundary and refer to it when designing strategies and PnL first of all. Therefore, a well systematically designed strategy that can effectively weigh and quantify technical signals based on the scientific and reliable evidences must be adapted. Once validities of each are scaled, we would be able to comprehend which signals are relatively more reliable than others. Shown on the main image above, even though entering a 80% credibility zone will provide low entry rate, higher RR ratio and win-rate can be achieved. We need to train ourselves to be able to call “No Trading Zone” when the identified trends and derived price action zones do not meet the minimum standards of our own. Some of the talented and successful daily traders I’ve met are not very much different from most of us here. They analyze the market and design trading setups just like we do. If anything, that made them superior, they have a proficient sense for spotting the “No Trading Zone”. They are amazingly good at consistently stepping aside if the signals are not reliable enough or do not meet their standards. They know time is on their side and they wait in patient. It's just simply deciding whether to take certain trades or not, filtering out some of less potential entries and maintaining no position when they are less convinced about the signals, but these tiny differences ultimately result in a huge difference in performances. Investors who trade with technical charts like us can measure the credibility of signals based on the confluency of technical signs and indicators. Here are two traders: trader A and B. Trader A considers eight signals (techniques, indicators, and theories). For example, trader A observes volumes, trendline, Fibonacci levels, moving averages, Bollinger band, Ichimoku cloud, RSI, Stochastic, and Elliott wave theory. Trader A won’t enter position unless majority of those signals are giving signs simultaneously relatively at the same price and time. On the other hand, trader B only considers trendline and moving averages. If only one of the two gives a signal, trader B enters immediately. Which trader would be more successful? Even though entry rate is low, trader A would be able to secure higher RR ratio and win-rates because the trends and price action zones that trader A has deducted through TA are more reliable than those deducted by trader B. As mentioned, Confluence Zone is an area where multiple technical evidences overlap at the same price or time period. In TA world which is 2-dimensional, a price action zone would be expressed with a dot, a line or a box. When multiple indicators signal certain trends and PRZs both in price and time wise, we need to keep our eyes on those coordinates. We as a trader, need to utilize these confluence zones which indicate major price range within certain time period, to design trading setups. The more overlapping elements there are, the higher RR ratio and win-rate we can secure. And this is what makes gambling different from trading. Both of us fight with numbers, but we can control that numbers while gambler cannot manipulate the RR ratios and the win-rates they are given. Thanks for reading my post. I will see you guys next time! Your subscriptions, likes, and comments are the greatest motivations for me to write more posts!
Education
by Tommy_Trader
4