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Masterpattern

[Netflix] When will the crash end?#Netflix #NFLX #NASDAQ #Daily - Here’s NFLX Daily chart. It recently has shown a huge drop about 73% from the historical high at $700. - During the fall, it made a consolidation zone (HVP: High Volume Peak) around $330~$400 surrounded by big gaps. - Currently NFLX reached 0.705 retracement level of the impulsive wave which also happens to be the bottom of the blue falling channel. - Also, there are some of major HVPs that were formed at 2017 at current price level and thus I believe this area is a PRZ(Potential Reversal Zone), expecting some technical price actions. - If it falls a bit more, some attractive buy zones are $153~$168 and $82~$97 which are confluent zones of trendlines, Fibonacci retracement levels, stop hunting level of an impulsive wave, and POC (Point of Control) levels of major contractions. - Some resistances that I am considering are $288~$303, $373~$388, and $443~$458. If you are looking for more conservative spot, I would recommend you to wait until it breaks the blue falling channel above and until then, I would maintain my bearish perspective.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Tommy_Trader
1
Good analysts are not always good traders [Principle vs Emotion]#TommyLecture #PrincipleofTrading #TheoryofTrading #Emotion #Management Hello traders from all over the world. This is Tommy. How were your trades lately? The market was quite unpredictable recently showing high level of fluctuation which makes it harder for us retail traders to follow up. It sort of seems like a sideway trend in a big horizontal box but also within that, it also keeps surprising us time to time by showing extensive bullish or bearish rallies at unexpected price and time zones. In this foggy arena, we traders make decisions to minimize risks based on strict criteria and standards of our own. Whether you are a long-term holder, a swing trader, a daily trader, or a scalper, we must take at least some risk for reward(return) and there is no complete risk-free strategy, market, or product in this world. Despite all these uncertainties in the market, as long as proper risk reward ratio and win-rate are secured in every trade, traders eventually will end up profiting theoretically and this is what makes trading different from gambling. To some people, what we do might seem like gambling on certain direction of trends and price action zones, but it surely is different from that we deal with numbers and consistency based on a highly reliable source called ‘Technical Analysis’. Since all of us are humans carrying emotions, we often tend to narrow our sights desperately expecting only the best scenario. We easily get disturbed just by thinking about the unwanted results or potential losses and ignore the risks that we have to face every time. However, there are thousands of possible scenarios that can happen, and the market is not always on our side. Just remember that there can only be two possible outcomes for every trade we take; we either win or lose. There is nobody on Earth who can win every trade maintaining 100% win-rate (Even you, Elon Musk!). Whether you like it or not, we are destined to encounter circumstances when market is just totally not on your side and if you are a wise trader, you would normally admit this very situation as soon as possible. Just because market did not flow as expected, it doesn’t mean that you suck trading. Good traders are not the ones that win every single trade but are the ones that can maximize their profit when market is on their side and minimize the losses when market is against their side. Nevertheless, there are some traders, many actually, who just hate to admit the fact that they are losing during position and they start to let their emotions kick in. Unfortunately, now or later, these types usually end up being in worse situation. In this world, establishing and following consistent principles is much more important than analyzing the market (TA or FA). No matter how good you are at analyzing market, if you keep breaking promises to yourself, you eventually won’t be the survival in this market. I have seen so many traders thriving but end up losing all their money with just one tiny mistake. Always keep in mind that there are many traders who win 99 times and lose everything just by one simple mistake, letting their emotions be involved. Emotion in fact, is the biggest risk here. For example, if you designed your stoploss and target price, execute your trade as you have planned. Don’t change your mind being agitated by lowering your stoploss or exiting position before reaching the target price. Also, if you have set your daily profits and losses, do comply! I have seen so many traders who could not just admit their loss and become irrational, insisting to take more trades and eventually losing much more. You should be familiar with calling a day if the maximum loss for the day, week, or month has been reached. I know very well more than anyone that you desperately want to recover all the losses and I even know that by 50% chance, you will successfully restore all the loss. However, by 50% chance you won’t. This terrible situation will seduce you to lose control, make biased judgement, and you will probably end up regretting. Observing many of my fellow traders, students, and followers, I have performed some researches deeply about psychology and mentality of traders. When and where do most of the retail traders start to not obey their principles and in what process? Compared to the past, in recent market with numerous untraditional patterns and phenomenon, there are much more variables that easily lure traders to trade with emotions. In technical perspective, widening/broadening pattern, V-shaped bounce, long-tailed candle, double SR flip and master pattern, etc. are some of the major occurrences that weren’t quite common in the past. From these unfamiliar price momentum and flow, traders are highly likely to lose their temper and break their principle especially when they face these cases: stoploss hunting, bull/bear trap, target price missed closely, entry price missed closely, and breakout entry hunting, etc. To illustrate in depth about the fundamental process why emotions are regarded as poisons when trading, I developed a simple model that depicts the relationship between trade setup phase and performance. In this world, ideally, if we can manage emotions perfectly like robots, our trading performance (profit or loss) should not affect the trading preparation/setup phase (Designing EP, SL, TP based on the deducted trend) and thus it would be a causal relationship where an independent variable (preparation phase) affects the dependent variable (performance) only in one-way. However, the more we let emotions kick in by breaking our principles, the more it becomes correlated between these two variables. In other words, as we fail to control our emotions, the performance will no longer be independent, and start to affect our judgement when setting up our next trades, either positively or negatively. This will eventually create a vicious cycle where factor A affects B, B affects A, and A affects B again, getting worse and worse just like sinking into a swamp. Therefore, as a wise trader whose task is to manage risk, it is integral to be able to cut this cycle before things get worse. We should know how to stop with a small loss, before it becomes a big loss due to that cycle. Hence, it is extremely critical for us to properly design and obey the strategies consistently and carefully and regardless of the latest trading outcome, we should be as neutral, objective, and prudent as possible. Which set of principles, strategy, and mindset should be adopted to effectively eradicate emotional trades? I hate to say this, but the answer would be different depending on your trading preferences and your economical/technical/physical conditions. So first you need to know yourself. Here’s a fun fact; this thing called ‘trading’ lets you learn deeply about yourself that you did not even know before. Pretty cool huh? It explicitly lets you know how greedy, fearful, doubtful, and jealous you are under this social system called capitalism. Once you find out about yourself through decent self-reflection, you then need to figure out your trading propensities and the strategies you are fond of. It is definitely going to be different for everyone. For some traders, a high RR ratio & low win-rate strategy might suit and vice versa for some else. Some long or short, some short-term or long-term, and some high or low leverage. It is significant to find the optimal combination of trading strategies, theories, and indicators as well as trading products and platforms, that fits your trading preferences and behaviors. To give you a tip, make habit to always consider the risk first, before the reward. Consider the status when you lose money rather than thinking about the profit. In this way, you will naturally get a sense of weighting risks that you are facing. By prioritize risk over rewards, you will be less affected by negative emotions when you actually lose trading and will also help you efficiently manage your risk in advance. Let's all become a wise and smart trader who are always prepared for the worst possible scenario. Remember, it’s not the win-rate that makes you a successful trader. It’s all about minimizing loss and maximizing profit. Thanks for reading my post. Your subscription, comments, and likes are the biggest inspiration for me.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Tommy_Trader
77
[Bitcoin] Possible scenarios in future#Bitcoin #Daily #ElliottWave #Scenario #Tommy - These are some of many scenarios that I am personally considering from the Elliott Wave Theory perspective. Numerous technical factors that are observed frequently especially in recent financial market such as widening patterns, stop hunting price action, parallel channels, and master patterns have been taken into account. Let's take a look at each one. - Let’s start with A, my most bearish scenario. This is a wave counting where the whole bullish wave from $32.9K low formed in January, is regarded as a big dead-cat bounce, expecting another bearish wave cycle. I interpreted the sideway structure that came out after January as a green wave B within the 5-3-5 ABC correction. If we see another bullish trend breaking top of the black channel above, possible target prices for wave B are $53.6k~$54.8k and $57.2k~$58.4k. In a bigger picture, red wave C can be targeted at $22.3k~$23.6k and $17.8K~$19.5K which can also be considered as possible resistances. This scenario becomes more likely if bottoms of the black and green channel fail supporting. - Scenario B is my bullish counting that assumes $32.9K low as the end of the corrective wave cycle and regarding the bullish wave after as an impulsive. It seems that support of the red upward trend line is currently being tested and if successfully supported, we cannot exclude the Leading Diagonal wave 1 scenario. If it fails supporting and cause more bearish momentum, I would say $37.8K~$39.5K is a significant zone which is a confluent zone of the black channel bottom and HVP(High volume peak) level. This scenario is to be ignored if Bitcoin makes a swing low, breaking $32.9K and forming LL(Lower Low). If somehow Bitcoin becomes very bullish making a higher high, the target prices for the impulsive wave can be deducted as $72.5k-$74.0k and $77.5k-$79.0k. - The following two scenarios have considered wave structure above $28K as 3-3-5 Flat Correction. Scenario C has taken widening or broadening patterns into account which are commonly observed these days. Considering 3-3-5 Expanded Flat correction, this scenario expects to break the $28.9K bottom, making a V-shaped price action at the stop-hunting level and the bottom of the disjoint channel. If the $53.6k~$54.8k resistance fails rejection, this wave counting becomes invalid. The green wave 5 or red wave C can be targeted at $22.3k~$23.6k and $17.8k~$19.5k below. - Scenario D is similar to C, but has a shorter green wave 5, meaning Truncated wave 5 or C is expected. This very case interprets the wave structure as a running flat corrective and expects to not break the bottom of the black or green channel below. $37.8K~$39.5K would be a decent target range. If bottom of the upward channels fails supporting, $29.1k~$30.8k which is the bottom of the smaller widening pattern formed after $32.9k, can also be considered as a short-term support zone. - (Summary) The most imminent point to pay attention currently is to confirm whether the red bullish trend line can successfully support. The next support levels to keep our eyes on are around the bottom of the black and green channels. However, if this zone breaks, I would become very bearish expecting price to drop and reach $28.9k which is a very important LVP(Low Volume Peak) pivot level. If the market becomes worse making another huge drop, the area where the lower widening pattern and the stop-hunting level overlap around $22.3k~$23.6k and $17.8k~$19.5k, would be one of the most attractive buy zones. If additional bullish rallies are observed, the resistances to consider in between are $53.6k~$54.8k and $57.2k~$58.4k. Lastly, in a much bigger picture, if Bitcoin successfully swings high making a new historical high, I would say $72.5k~$74.0k and $77.5k~$79.0k are areas to expect some rejections.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Twitter] Will the blue bird fly high?#Twitter #Stocks #NYSE #Daily - Twitter, known to be world’s biggest social network platform recently had a good issue that Elon Musk has acquired about 9.2% stake. - If you look at the chart, about 70% bullish rally has appeared with a huge gap. - The black long-term upward parallel channel has been re-entered from the bottom and thus this bottom will be potential support for a while. - In Elliott Wave perspective, I think this impulsive bullish wave is B. If Twitter successfully break the blue falling channel and the orange downward trendline above, this scenario might be wrong meaning that I will be very bullish. - Until then, I would say buying in between my first support and the blue channel and orange trendline is not the best idea. - For those looking for a new entry to buy, it would be either breakout entry above or pullback entries at my supports at 44.60~46.60, 39.30~ 41.30, and 33.30~ 35.30. - Resistances that I am keeping my eyes on are 55.80~57.80, 62.40~64.40, and 68.40~70.40.
NYSE:TWTR
by Tommy_Trader
1
Will Ascending Triangle fail soon?#EURUSD #FX #4H #Tommy - Here’s EURUSD 4hr chart and I have made an assumption that the bearish wave starting from around 1.23470 is an impulsive wave cycle in Elliott wave perspective. - It’s currently testing bottom of the orange ascending triangle with top located around 1.11240 and this very wave structure also can be expressed with an orange upward parallel channel. - At the same time, purple short-term downward trendline keeps showing strong rejections. I will be bearish if bottom of the ascending triangle breaks below first. - On the other hand, I will be bullish if purple trendline breaks above and even more bullish when it successfully breaks the top of the ascending triangle above. - If EURUSD successfully breaks ascending triangle above, a considerable resistance area to enter short position is at 1.13100~1.13600. - This resistance is a confluent zone of blue trendline, top of black channel, top of the orange channel, 0.786 retracement level, HVP pivot level, and inner trendline and is valid only until April 9th. - If I were to design a short trading setup, it would be as below. Short (Valid until 04/09) EP: 1.13100 SL: 1.13970 (-870 PIPS) TP1: 1.11790 (+1310 PIPS) -> RR: 1.51 TP2: 1.10260 (+2840 PIPS) -> RR: 3.26
by Tommy_Trader
Chart Analysis is not a gambling! Reason why TA is greatHello traders. This is Tommy. Today, I prepared the most basic and at the same time essential materials that every trader should know. Trading is literally the act of exchanging or trading something with a certain value. If we look at the history, we humans have always traded something within the social community from the Neolithic Age to develop into a better civilization or for individual survival when we have enough food or assets. When the surplus accumulation and self-sufficiency economy due to food production was formed, even before the concept of currency or money, buying and selling (trading) was always with us. But when we trade, it is not a reasonable thing to do if we lose money when you buy or sell something, right? We humans have always traded at a value or price that is commensurate with supply and demand, within this immutable fence. And we, who are full of greed, have been trading in such a way as to somehow benefit ourselves a little bit more. In a way, I think this is the basic idea of capitalism. Anyway, our ancestors naturally oriented trades for profit, sometimes seeing losses and sometimes profits through these transactions. And suddenly realized. “Ah, the quantity demanded, and the quantity supplied change over time. Because of this, all objects in this world, even abstract ones, change in value over time. Oh, I can make money if I use this well?” A culture of profit taking has naturally been formed thanks to those who possess the temperament of smart entrepreneurs. In this way, the economy and financial markets were eventually born, and several market participants came in for the sole purpose of generating profits, that is, for investment purposes. People who have properly understood the market principle of supply and demand have been trading with certain standards to make money with it. Some people can trade by the weather (buy when it's sunny, sell when it's raining), some by rolling the dice (buy when it's high, sell when it's low), and someone just by feeling. Of course, economists studied after realizing that trading on unreliable and absurd standards would eventually destroy them. And realized it. “Ah, let’s find the right standard to set the standard. From what I've seen so far, does it make money by trading based on the information about the product and the value of the product that changes every moment? Let’s dig into it properly!” And they created a great science. Analysis through information, Fundamental Analysis (FA), analysis through charts, that is, past transaction data, and Technical Analysis (TA: Technical Analysis). FA is an analysis method that determines whether a product's current intrinsic value is overvalued or undervalued. For example, when we want to invest in a company, that is, if we want to buy shares or stocks in that company, we must first estimate the company's growth potential and potential, right? To do this, you must make a final investment decision by referring to the company's financial indicators, good news/bad news, past asset/revenue growth rates, etc. On the other hand, TA is a method of making investment decisions by referring to various theories and indicators with meaning in charts that intuitively show past price movements and momentum. Of course, it would be the best to do both FA and TA, but in these days, retail traders and individual investors, like us, have time/technical limitations to receive information, analyze it, and immediately reflect it in investment. It is not enough that there are various kinds of false information to deceive the traders, and even if it is reliable information, it is highly likely to start at a loss even if it is received a little later than others. It is useful to spot large market trends in the long run, but when this information reaches the public, it is likely that it has already been priced in by institutions (Big Parties). Without huge information power or a computer that can perform FA quickly and accurately, it is difficult to survive in this market with only FA. There is a risk that is too great to carry out an investment with only one FA standard. Therefore, to make a successful investment decision, you need to find a more precise trading position through TA, and in the end, if you are a skilled investor, you must learn TA. The dictionary meaning of TA is known as a technique for predicting future market trends by examining a tool called a chart that digitizes the overall price volatility and momentum of a product. I'm someone who doesn't fully agree with this meaning. The term “prediction” itself is a very dangerous word. Even the most talented investors in the world cannot predict future prices unless they are gods. Technical analysis is closer to the realm of response than prediction. For this reason, our traders look at the charts and always have various possible scenarios in mind and come up with appropriate countermeasures accordingly. With less than 10 years of trading experience, if I dared to define the meaning of the term technical analysis, I would like to say: Personally, all TAs are based on historical data, and through various theories (or methodologies) and technical indicators, first, probabilistically identify the market trend, that is, whether the price is an upward trend or a downward trend, and then determine the price action, that is, support resistance. I think it is an analysis technique that derives the sections with high probability. Some of you may have questions like this. “No, how do you find a trend and price action interval by looking at only historical data?” This is the reason I fell in love with market analysis. This study called technical analysis is a technique that statistically patterned and quantified the psychology of investors (greed, doubt, fear, etc.) with a lot of data from the past. Surprisingly, external variables that can affect the market, such as good news/bad news, are also reflected in this probabilistically. There have been many times when I have felt the greatness of technical analysis, and there were many times when good news/bad news came out amazingly at just the right timing in situations where there was no choice but to rise or fall referring to the chart. Of course, there are situations where Big Parties leak news to the media to take advantage of popular psychology, but even the pattern, timing, or frequency of such good news and bad news is reflected in the study of technical analysis. Anyway, once you have probabilistically derived the market trend and price action section through TA, you need to design a trading strategy according to the situation. There are words that I keep emphasizing like nagging. Just looking at the charts doesn't mean you're good at trading. This trading strategy includes how to structure the portfolio, how to design the profit/loss ratio/range, how much seed to enter, high/low multiplier, and how to set up profit/loss response strategies. In addition, a well-designed principled strategy is essential to prevent non-thinking trading. This principled strategy is easy to design, but incredibly difficult to follow and implement. No matter how well technical analysis and trading strategies are formulated, these principles are of no use if they are not well designed or adhered to. There are individual differences, but honestly, I don't think there is an answer to the principle strategy other than learning or mastering it through long-term practice or entrusting your own technical analysis/trading strategy to a machine/computer/algorithm. The fewer human emotions are involved, the higher the success rate, but how can you trade without emotions when your money is at stake? It's hard. One tip is to start trading with a small amount that you don't mind losing if you want to learn principle trading well. It doesn't matter if you lose it, so you'll be less empathetic that much, and you'll be able to increase a seed little by little. We must become traders who always think of risks (losses) before rewards (returns). Please keep this word in mind. For example, in a trading setup that costs 10 million dollars if you make a profit and 10 million dollars if you lose, rather than a mindset like “Oh, I want to win 10 million dollars quickly~”, “I may lose 10 million dollars. You must trade with the mindset of “Let’s be prepared.” This will naturally match the seed to your bowl. Then I'll wrap up for today. Until now, this was Tommy of the Tommy Trading Team. Your subscriptions, likes, and comments are a big help to me. Thank you.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Tommy_Trader
75
EURGBP | Some entry points with nice RRs#EURGBP #4HR #FXCM - FX likes parallel channels very much these days. I am waiting EUR/GBP to break the top of blue falling wedge which I find it very steep. - The area that caused a sharp bounce today is the confluence zone where yellow channel and bottom of the wedge overlap. - If we see another swing low, I am expecting to enter long position at the support at 0.83390~0.83530. - This zone is where bottom of white channel, green trendline, bottom of the wedge, and 1.13 expansion level all exist and is only valid until 23:00 January 5th of 2022 in Korean time (UTC+9). - Long trading setups can be designed as below: Long EP: 0.83530 SL: 0.83310 (-220Pips) TP1: 0.83980 (+450Pips) RR: 2.05 TP2: 0.84490 (+960Pips) RR: 4.36
Long
by Tommy_Trader
Does 200k sound absurd? All of the possible scenarios for BTC#BTCUSD #Bitstamp #Weekly #Log #EW - Hello traders from all over the world! It’s been a while since we’ve looked deep into the possible scenarios of Bitcoin in long-term EW perspective. The uploaded images are BTC weekly log scaled chart. Personally, I believe that spotting market trend and price actions utilizing Elliott wave theory is not that significant. So please just refer this post to roughly capture some possible trend flows and major PRZs (Potential Reversal Zone). - All of the cases I have prepared today have an assumption that the upward wave starting from the low at $3000 is an impulsive wave cycle(Blue wave 5). Or else there would be too many for me to cover in an upload. Scenarios with different assumptions are to be covered in the future. - Let’s start with scenario A first, my most bearish case. This wave counts regard that the current upward wave(30k~70k) is green sub-wave 5 of the blue wave 5. Even though I drew the whole impulsive black wave cycle in A-1, it is still possible that green wave 5 is still in progress as shown in A-2. This means that we might expect one more upward wave and the rough target price for wave 5 is around 95K~120K. - Scenario B implies that the on-going wave(30k~70k) is sub-wave B of the green wave 4. This case has reflected that this very wave structure is closer to 5-3-5-3-5 rather than 5-3-5 zigzags and thus expanded flat wave B was considered. It is more bullish than the first scenario in a longer term, but bearish in a shorter term. If Bitcoin makes a high higher than 69K, this wave count is no more valid and the scenario A-2 becomes more likely. The green wave 4 is targeted at 17k~23k. - Following case which interpreted that the green wave 3 has not ended, is scenario C. This count is somewhat similar to scenario A that the upward wave(30k~70k) has been considered as an impulsive, but this case regarded with lower degree(red). C-1 shows that the target price for green wave 4 is similar to that of scenario B when 69K is considered as the end of green wave 3. On the other hand, similar to A-2, C-2 also implied that black sub-wave 5 of green wave 3 has not ended yet and 95k~120k would be a rough target. After that if we see a corrective wave, possibly green wave 4, the green wave 5 can be targeted at 180k~220k. More precise targets are to be deducted later when more sub wave structures are formed. - Last but not least, scenario D is assuming that the ongoing wave is the black sub-wave 4 of the green wave 3. This case also applied the expanded flat just like scenario B, but lower wave degree has been counted. If Bitcoin succeeds on breaking the high at 69k, this case becomes invalid and scenario C will gain some weight. Similar target prices from the previous cases are regarded for black wave 4 and 5 and the green wave 4 and 5 will be specified after.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tommy_Trader
2
Always perceive your risk first, before determining the reward#EURGBP #Daily #Europound #FOREX #Tommy - The market has been quite tough for many commodities recently due to the effects of the global economy. - The FX market is not exceptional and it has never been this brutal. Nevertheless, who should we blame as a trader? It’s not the whales or other stakeholders in the market. It should be ourselves since trading is a series of endless battles against our own ego. - Here is Euro/British Pound daily which I trade very often. I found a confluent support zone at 0.83400~0.83900 which might be a good entry for a decent risk reward ratio. - Below is a long trading setup where stoploss and target prices are written in percentage instead of pips (or ticks). Make sure to use proper leverages or pips and also check if the position size can be covered by your seed money. Long (Valid until Nov 15th) EP: 0.83900 SL: 0.83250 (-0.77%) TP1: 0.84920 (+1.22%) TP2: 0.85960 (+2.46%)
by Tommy_Trader
2
BTC is a finest SL hunter these days. #BTCUSDT #Binance #Daily #Midterm - What a sharp drop! Bitcoin was rejected thoroughly at 52K zone which is around bottom of the major orderblock formed around early May 2021. - I have addressed this very resistance gathering technical factors such as numerous upward trendlines, top of the parallel channels, and projection/expansion/retracement levels of the wave structures. - In my Elliott Wave perspective, since Bitcoin has failed swing high, I am leaning slightly more towards the 52K high being the end of the wave B and thus expecting another bearish wave to come which then would be wave C. - In a shorter term, make sure to consistently check whether bottoms of the yellow and white channels are valid. - From the fact that the bottom of the recent dip happens to be located at the LVP(Low Volume Peak), I will definitely be more bearish if bottom of the yellow channel fails supporting. - Here are some of the areas that I find them attractive to enter long position if we observe more drops: 37K~38K (Valid until 9/18), 33.2K~34.8K (Valid until 10/05). - If these supports are broken later, according to many wave theories and methodologies, I strongly expect Bitcoin to rally down to test the mid-term bottom around 29K. The ultimatum support that I am considering is around 23K~25K. - Lastly, if Bitcoin sort of forms widening or broadening pattern and make an HH, the next resistance that I deducted is 56.5K~58.5K.
by Tommy_Trader
Reason why I am bearish on 10Y T-Note#ZN1! #10YearTNote #Weekly #CBOT - I took a deep look into the 10-year Treasury Note, futures commodity. The chart above is weekly. - In Elliott Wave Theory perspective, an assumption has been made that the bullish wave starting from the swing low at 117’13’5 to the swing high at 140’20’0 as am impulsive 5-3-5-3-5 zig zag wave structure. - With that said, I am weighing more on the possibility that the bullish wave from 130’25’0 to 135’15’0 is an 5-3-5 ABC corrective phase and this scenario becomes a bit more solid if bottom of the blue channel fails supporting. - While expecting another corrective wave, a major confluent zone to keep an eye on is the red circle on the chart. This is where an inner downward trendline, a neckline (green trendline), and 0.382 retracement level overlaps. - However, entering long here seems quite risky considering the RR ratio. Also, if the potential neckline (green trendline) breaks below, I am way more bearish expecting widening/broadening pattern. - Those aggressive traders willing to take the risk here (buying at red circle), make sure to set a tight stoploss. I would rather be patient and wait until the price action gets confirmed and enter short if the trendline fails supporting. - Here are some of the decent areas to enter long position if the H&S case is likely after observing failure of support at the neckline: 128’5~129’5 and 124’9~125’9.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by Tommy_Trader
Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin#BTCUSDT #Binance #4HR #Midterm #Elliottwave - It’s been a while everyone. Today I’ve brought up some of the possible scenarios for Bitcoin based on the Elliott wave Theory. EW traders can refer to my insights and perspectives on midterm trends and major supports/resistances. - Out of countless Elliott Wave counts, I’ve summarized those that are relatively more plausible and credible. All the cases here were interpreted assuming that the all-time high at 65K(on Binance Chart) is the start of a corrective waves, either as 5-3-5 corrective wave or 5-3-5-3-5 impulsive wave(regarding it as a wave A). - First of all, let’s look at the scenario A. The swing low formed at 7/21 has been considered as the end of the 5-3-5-3-5 yellow bearish impulsive wave, and thus a whole green wave A. Then the bullish wave structure after that low can be interpreted as green wave B. In this case, Bitcoin is going through yellow wave B of the green wave C and their target prices are 50.8K~52.0K(valid until 8/18) and 53.3K~54.5K. - Similarly, scenario B also indicates that Bitcoin is forming green wave B currently, but is a bit different that the start of the yellow wave A is at the low formed at 6/22 rather than 7/21. If bears become more dominant from this current price, we can target yellow wave B within the green wave B, at 36.5K~37.7K(valid until 8/29) and 32.8K~34.0K(valid until 9/20). - Scenario C is one of my bearish counts, viewing that yellow bearish impulsive wave is still ongoing. Adapting the Elliott wave rule that the micro wave 5 of the macro wave 3 cannot be truncated, I have comprehended the low at 6/22 as the yellow wave 3. Hence, the upward wave after becomes yellow wave 4. In this case, we have to make sure that the recent high doesn’t overlap the end of yellow wave 1 which means if Bitcoin succeeds to make higher swing, this counting becomes invalid. The yellow wave 5 can be targeted at 32.8K~34.0K(Valid until 9/20) and 25.6K~26.9K. - My bullish scenario is the last one. Here, I have considered the current circumstance that the green ABC corrective wave is done and we are now on a new bullish impulsive wave. Whether the end of the green wave C is the low at 6/22 or 7/21, the bullish wave structure can be interpreted as an impulsive wave. In other words, Bitcoin is on yellow wave 3 or 5 of the green wave 1. If Bitcoin shows some bullish movement, the target prices of the green wave 1 are 50.8K~52.0K(valid until8/18) and 53.3K~54.5K. On the other hand, if we observe failure of the swing high, then green wave 2 is to be targeted at 36.5K~37.7K(valid until 8/29) and 32.8K~34.0K(valid until 9/20).
by Tommy_Trader
2
Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin#BTCUSDT #Binance #4HR #Midterm #Elliottwave - It’s been a while everyone. Today I’ve brought up some of the possible scenarios for Bitcoin based on the Elliott wave Theory. EW traders can refer to my insights and perspectives on midterm trends and major supports/resistances. - Out of countless Elliott Wave counts, I’ve summarized those that are relatively more plausible and credible. All the cases here were interpreted assuming that the all-time high at 65K(on Binance Chart) is the start of a corrective waves, either as 5-3-5 corrective wave or 5-3-5-3-5 impulsive wave(regarding it as a wave A). - First of all, let’s look at the scenario A. The swing low formed at 7/21 has been considered as the end of the 5-3-5-3-5 yellow bearish impulsive wave, and thus a whole green wave A. Then the bullish wave structure after that low can be interpreted as green wave B. In this case, Bitcoin is going through yellow wave B of the green wave C and their target prices are 50.8K~52.0K(valid until 8/18) and 53.3K~54.5K. - Similarly, scenario B also indicates that Bitcoin is forming green wave B currently, but is a bit different that the start of the yellow wave A is at the low formed at 6/22 rather than 7/21. If bears become more dominant from this current price, we can target yellow wave B within the green wave B, at 36.5K~37.7K(valid until 8/29) and 32.8K~34.0K(valid until 9/20). - Scenario C is one of my bearish counts, viewing that yellow bearish impulsive wave is still ongoing. Adapting the Elliott wave rule that the micro wave 5 of the macro wave 3 cannot be truncated, I have comprehended the low at 6/22 as the yellow wave 3. Hence, the upward wave after becomes yellow wave 4. In this case, we have to make sure that the recent high doesn’t overlap the end of yellow wave 1 which means if Bitcoin succeeds to make higher swing, this counting becomes invalid. The yellow wave 5 can be targeted at 32.8K~34.0K(Valid until 9/20) and 25.6K~26.9K. - My bullish scenario is the last one. Here, I have considered the current circumstance that the green ABC corrective wave is done and we are now on a new bullish impulsive wave. Whether the end of the green wave C is the low at 6/22 or 7/21, the bullish wave structure can be interpreted as an impulsive wave. In other words, Bitcoin is on yellow wave 3 or 5 of the green wave 1. If Bitcoin shows some bullish movement, the target prices of the green wave 1 are 50.8K~52.0K(valid until8/18) and 53.3K~54.5K. On the other hand, if we observe failure of the swing high, then green wave 2 is to be targeted at 36.5K~37.7K(valid until 8/29) and 32.8K~34.0K(valid until 9/20).
by Tommy_Trader
Some of possible scenarios for Bitcoin#BTCUSDT #Binance #Daily #Tommy - Assuming that the high formed at 42K on Jan 9th of 2021 is the blue impulsive wave 3, these are some of the Elliott wave countings that I am personally in consideration. - The counting at the upper left is one of my primary scenarios that Bitcoin is going through. I denoted the upward impulsive wave at 29K~66K as an ending diagonal wave 5 along with the downward corrective wave after most likely being the wave A. - Observing the wave structures located at the top, I could also suspect the 66K high as the expanded flat wave B (upper right) and the following correction afterwards would then become a WXY correction where wave failure has occurred. The reason I included this scenario is that the wave structure at 50K~66K seems more like a 5-3-5, rather then 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. - The bottom left one is where I viewed the high at 60K as truncated wave 5. Similar to the second scenario, the bearish price momentum that reached 30K then can be interpreted as wave A. I am not putting so much weight on this one since the yellow wave 3 within the blue wave 5 seems a bit obscure. - Lastly, the wave counting at bottom right is one of my most bullish scenarios where the downward waves after the 60K high are considered as the ABC corrective waves. This means that the correction are done and thus the new impulsive wave cycle is starting.
by Tommy_Trader
2
CADUSD | When and where to enter long and short#CADUSD #Futures #6CM2021 #1HR - Here is CADUSD futures 1hr chart. Currently, yellow upward trendline is supporting and a short-term bottom has been formed at 0.82370. I am more bearish when this bottom fails supporting. - When that happens before 5/20 19:00, I am looking at 0.82200~0.82280 as a short-term support. If you wish to enter long here, make sure to take profit under the previous bottom at 0.82370 since it will then act as a resistance due to SR Flip. - On the other hand, if CADUSD rallies upward to test the top of the white channel before 5/20 18:00, 0.82760~0.82840 seems to be a decent resistance. If white channel gets broken above, 0.82990~0.83070 is next resistance I am considering. - If the market gets bearish and goes through some more correction, here are some of the supports for long entry: 0.81530~0.81630, 0.81110~0.81210, and 0.80540~0.80670. - All of the periodic references are in Korean standard time (UTC+09:00).
CME:6CM2021
by Tommy_Trader
Don't dare try to forecast Prices at future. Unless you are GOD.#BTCUSDT #Binance #4HR #Tommy - Here is BTC 4hr that showed a sharp V shaped bounce around 30K with that long candle tail at bottom and this tells us that the bulls rejected bears very hard thus pushing the price up. - The new low at 30K is where the log-scaled trendline passes. Reason why we need to watch both the linear and log chart. - For now, the most significant resistance is located at 41K~42K which I marked it with a red box. This resistance has numerous technical factors overlapping each other. - Blue downward trendline, bottom of the purple parallel channel, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of the corrective wave, 1:1 extension level of the correction wave structure at top, and previous major consolidations are all passing this zone. - Rather than entering short at this very area, taking action after confirming the breakout of this level sounds like a much safer trade. If BTC breaks this area above, I would be bullish for short-term. - This breakout is also very meaningful because it means that BTC re-entered the purple parallel channel. - Some of the short-term resistances to keep our eyes on are 44.5K~45.1K, 48.2K~49.2K, and 50.8K~51.8K.
by Tommy_Trader
1